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Thank you I appreciate the information, all of which is relevant. I bow to your superiority, my 30 years in the industry have taught me not to solely exist in a echo chamber
I apologize, I obviously have no idea what I'm talking about . I'll join the majority and enter the echo chamber of cheerleaders here.
Valuation Model2 Stage Free Cash Flow to EquityLevered Free Cash Flow
Average of 2 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global)See belowDiscount Rate (Cost of Equity)See below7.3%
Perpetual Growth Rate5-Year Average of US Long-Term Govt Bond Rate2.0%
Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for NasdaqCM:CDMOData PointCalculation/ SourceResultRisk-Free Rate5-Year Average of US Long-Term Govt Bond Rate2.0%
Equity Risk PremiumS&P Global5.2%Biotechs Unlevered BetaSimply Wall St/ S&P Global1Re-levered Beta= 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))]
= 0.33 + [(0.66 * 1.002) * (1 + (1 - 21.0%) (2.00%))]1.012Levered BetaLevered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)1.012Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity= Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.04% + (1.012 * 5.23%)
Share Price vs. Fair Value
59.0%OvervaluedCurrent PriceUS$17.89Fair ValueUS$11.2520% UndervaluedAbout Right20% Overvalued
Source : Simply wall street
https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech/nasdaq-cdmo/avid-bioservices
Given fair value for CDMO is 11.25 we are significantly at risk without significant non public news soon, not sure they will have anything to report in the upcoming quarterly call . We could see significant sell off after that call
Well that news didnt do much for us
A message relayed
I was happy to see us in the black today, particularly after the masked avenger showed up ...cue the sinister music
Glad you took the time ...I stand corrected...sycophant
Sorry I'm not a pyscophant to the new management team ... Im very pleased with the progress but the lack of respect to retail continues to be an issue IMO
Given the fact our Investor relations team is a joke not sure how we can get on the radar
Good idea
I have been here 20 years and not going anywhere .. the lack of communication from this crew is the source of most of my pain not to mention the history
Yes and if I win the lottery that's also a very big number
Precisely! It is not relevant to this company, its a lotto ticket tucked away in a drawer. The odds are probably less then a lotto ticket
Perhaps they should turn over their promotion efforts to the team at Redditt
Well I guess you should put all your funds with those criminals you hold in such high regard
depends how far back you go but yes $35 a share equivelant since the 7 to 1
we will never get back there, buy out will happen before we hit that number
That pretty much sums it up and baring a surprise I feel they will once again disappoint. They will get taken out soon given the fact they don't have the skill to
Take this to the next level.
Now you're talking ! Like the idea of not giving it all up just yet
Can you provide us the analysis that brings you to the conclusion of 1 bil in value for bavi?
Our share price is a reflection of a leadership team has little interest in building shareholder value. It continues to be all about padding their own wallets with compensation and stock options as long as they can. This company has no sense of morality or obligation to retail shareholders. Just because they are not overt crooks like previous team doesn't make them on our side.
Imo
This company has serious credibility issues and they don't care to communicate proactively. I see nothing on the horizon to change that as they are content on slow playing this along. Unfortunately missing an unprecedented opportunity in the space, we will be bought out well below what could have been achieved with a competent aggressive approach. Nick is still playing a small time game, staying in his comfort zone
IMO
They are quite busy these days so hopefully 2028
Bingo!
Its only a matter of time ... the truth will come to light and 100 per share will be just the start
Keep up the great work
I could not agree more, the AGM is key . If its a muted cautious event our upside is very limited and will ultimately lead to a take out . At a price of 12 best case, its really unfortunate this could have been an opportunity to create some value out of the horrific incompetent criminal morons that stole so much from all of us.
Definitely no reason to buy, despite the incredible opportunity this team seems intent on playing this like a mature business with no potential. If they continue on this path we will be taken out at 10 -12 by a team with vision to capture the opportunity. Shocking they cant get out of there on way and aggressively move this forward. Perhaps Nick is way over his head
I wonder why I haven't shorted this stock before every quarterly , it is as reliable as clockwork drops significantly every time and has done so for years and years ...what a amateur show, they have no sense how to mange expectations of course their only focus is collecting their paychecks and bleeding shareholders year in and year out
This stock is a Regular Star Wars bar! Mind your wallet and valuables
The more things change the more they stay the same ... I think Nick is actually Alfred E Newman .. What, me worry?
https://images.app.goo.gl/cT7Ugp6iUdeSRsjv8
Amateur hour...better then the criminals we had before but I have no patience nor will any II for these clowns to learn on the job...amazing how this company continues to disappoint guarter after quarter ... not to mention the endless hype on this board ...$500 just around the corner..lol
Not sure what we should expect the news wasnt exactly a game changer . We are trending in the right direction and close to fair value already. Best we could hope for is 10 to 11 in short term and we would need more news to move beyond that . 11 ÷7 = 1.57 .... big whoop
I just put together an extensive package for the DOJ and FBI supporting this. I have no doubt the truth will finally come to light. Hold tight folks and don't sell below 500 a share, the truth will set us free
Well said ... lets stick to reality folks
They just need to add some of the criminals from PPHM to round out their strategy to bilk saps like me. Really disappointed we chose to partner with this POS
Divide that by 7 and it becomes a little less exciting . Having said that at least this wounded peregrine can still flap its wings
Meanwhile this wounded bird stumbles along
I believe Jerry fletcher is on to something, we should take heed
I assume this was a message related from Jerry Fletcher?
Thank you I hope you're right .... made my own decisions and have to live with it including trading options when the hype was high for major losses ....thankfully did average down but even at 20 it will be a paltry return for me but at least north of break even