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I was wondering the same thing. As a rabbit trail, I googled their patents and was reading up on their technology. They used fluidized bed reactors which I'm familiar with in the water/aquaculture industry, but instead of water, they use air as the fluid. If I get some free time maybe I'll post some of the technological aspects that the company and Drax have used. Drax also used geographic information system (GIS) to model their fiber supply for the purpose of siting their plants. The tech component is pretty interesting.
Phillip
And some of us have been telling our wives for decades how much potential torrefied wood has as a coal substitute. My wife has also for decades been telling me that she'll believe it when she sees it.
Phillip
It sure would be nice to hear ANY type of news.
It may not be official news from the Company, but this is what the latest approved public meeting minutes say from the Port of Natchitoches (12/18/17):
"Continuing to work with prospective tenant. Tenant proposes March/April start date on the project;"
Phillip
Reading their website this morning and found an interesting statement:
"There is sufficient fibre in the Natchitoches area to add a second facility in the Red River Mississippi catchment area. We have identified resources which are sufficient for construction of three facilities in the North Louisiana / Mississippi area that could operate at a combined production rate of >4 million tonnes/yr."
Fiber supply is a limiting factor to growth. Drax had to lock up their supply for miles around each plant and one of the reasons
They had to space their plants so far apart. This industry will be a race to lock up the fiber supplies world wide.
Phillip
Also in the MD&A:
Thanks.
Phillip
Do you know if the peer review of the plans is complete that BOA required?
Have you received the latest minutes from the Port? I haven't checked in a while.
Phillip
I don't think so. Price has been falling and a reverse split would have bumped the share price up tenfold. You could look in your brokerage account to see if your shares have been reduced by ten. Mergerwise, my guess is that as soon as it happens, they will send out a press release. Until then, I'm hoping the bleeding of the share price is just the normal selloff that tends to occur with reverse splits. Maybe time to pick up some more? Personally, I'd rather hear some good news before investing any more.
Phillip
Thanks for posting.
Still hard to put a valuation on this after a 10:1 reverse split and 50% dilution after the merger. Still . . . with the officers of the company being the primary shareholders, I suspect they are doing everything it takes to get this off the ground with the least amount of damage to all shareholders.
I wish I had some profit margin numbers to put a valuation on this.
Phillip
No problem. Looks like they weren't hit by Harvey. In thinking about the supply and construction impact on BMSPF, I was wondering how the timber industry and fiber supply could be hurt. On one hand if building materials such as lumber were in high demand, it could hurt the price for fiber. On the other hand, if the fiber is truly from logging byproducts and a waste product, maybe the high anticipated demand for timber could create a surplus of waste that needs to be disposed of. Dunno. 'Just theories.
As a side note, with the amount of drywall that needs to be replaced due to flooded homes, I bought into a gypsum wall board company today. We'll see if it's a boon to the industry or not. Some were saying investing in automotive companies could be a good move as people rush to replace their cars with insurance payouts for flood damaged vehicles.
Phillip
News just said Harvey is headed north so they could get hit. My guess is it's weakening but who knows by how much.
Phillip
I don't think it will be far enough north to cause flooding. Forecast as of this morning predicted 3 inches of rain for a couple of days in Natchitoches. If anything, construction resources may be the long term impact. I survived 2 disasters with wildfires here in California. With hundreds of homes destroyed, contractors were busy for years and costs went up. Hopefully contracts with costs and schedules have been set, but contractors won't usually hold their prices for very long since their costs change with market conditions. This food will impact market conditions.
Phillip
There hasn't been much progress. They are waiting for Bank of America's engineer to review their plans. Once that happens, I'm sure they will have comments and there will be a couple of rounds back and forth to address those comments.
Biomass has been on record with the Port of Natchitoches for quite a few months to expand on their lease. Each month a Notice of Intent is made at the meeting so that they can act on it the next month if it comes to fruition. Each month Biomass says they are waiting for the engineering review. The excerpt from last approved meeting minutes from June is below:
"In New Business regarding BioMass Power (Project "Skate"): Mr. Breedlove stated he had received correspondence from the engineer for BioMass. He also stated the engineer had received a scope of review that Bank of America's engineer will do, but is not sure whether Bank of America's engineer's review has begun. In addition, Mr. Breedlove stared he has received a revised appraisal for purposes of a lease agreement. A Notice of Intention pursuant to La. R.S. 33:4717.2 to approve a lease with BioMass Power at the next regular board meeting on July 17, 2017, was duly given."
Anyway, I review developer plans for a living and this is a cookie cutter of how most projects go. Over zealous developer thinks project approvals can be done yesterday, backlogged engineer has 10 projects ahead of his, everyone wonders why it takes so long not realizing their project isn't the only one anyone is working on . . . This my friends is the story of my life and the reason I never thought the project would meet the schedule that was being proposed. :) The good news is that I'm not seeing any indication that the project of not going to move forward. Just the typical "delays" that wouldn't be delays if a realistic schedule was used to begin with.
Phillip
Or someone that knows about a problem that the rest of us don't and got out when they could. Either way, I picked up 100,000 shares at 0.0026 this morning. My cost basis was way too high so this helped out.
Phillip
I don't think it will be silent, but I also don't think construction will be anywhere near as fast as it has been reported. I'm in the construction industry and there are too many moving parts to take care of and lead times for materials. If money can't be secured until the peer review of plans occurs, then material orders can't even be placed yet.
Phillip
That must be new. They didn't have them online before. You won't ever get current minutes from any public agency because they don't get written and approved until their next board meeting.
Phillip
Are you asking the Port for their minutes also? I've been doing it for years now, but didn't want to say anything and overwhelm them with requests.
Phillip
I've been invested in a startup since 2001 that is just now raised their capital and starting construction. Delays are part of business. The only people who don't know that are the ones who have never run a business and spend all their time on internet forums playing Monday morning quarterback.
Phillip
Based on the schedule sliding? The only thing I blame Elio for is being overly optimistic on raising $250 million. Did they lie? No. They are going down the path of most other projects in being late and over budget. An I happy about the delay? No. I had to buy another car this week instead of my Elio, but I don't blame the company for a delayed schedule. It's the same pattern for every startup I've ever seen or invested in.
Phillip
He is an idiot. Elio can't reveal insider information without the agreement. Seems like everyone has an agenda other than the facts.
Phillip
We haven't seen these levels in a while. I take it my buy order at $0.002 isn't going to get filled any time soon? :)
Phillip
Nice to see progress. Slowly but surely. I still don't get Jim's statement that construction will begin as soon as engineering is over. That's not how construction works. They need permits based on the final design. They need surety bonds. They need to secure materials. They need to secure services to the site. They need to mobilize. A hundred things to do after engineering is done. I still don't see it starting any time soon, but Louisiana isn't California so I imagine the red tape isn't as bad there as it is here. Some things just can't be overlooked though. Also what ever happened to storage at a deepwater port for overseas shipping. They went from the Port of Baton Rouge and then were tinkering with the Port of New Orleans after Baton Rouge snubbed them. I need to investigate.
On the bright side, if they nail Torrefication in mass quantities, this thing has more potential than just about anything we've ever seen in our lifetime. If I ever have time, I want to dig into this proprietary fluidized bed widget that RBE has.
Phillip
From the minutes of the Louisiana State Bond Comission's 1/19/17 meeting:
https://www.treasury.state.la.us/Home%20Pages/BondCommission.aspx?@Filter=BC2017
I'm working on updating the metrics of this stock considering a 50% dilution after the merger with RBE and the latest takeoff agreement(s). Does anyone have the information on the bond sales so that I can calculate the debt servicing costs associated with financing the plant construction?
Thanks,
Phillip
I listened to the Podcast on my lunch hour. Key takeaway's I heard:
- Bank of America is selling bonds. Well into process and 1-2 month away.
- RBE Merger this year.
- EPC start on permits in next 6 weeks.
- Looking for additional sites for plants 2 and 3.
- Looking to get listed on a major stock exchange.
- Second MOU for 500,000 tons to 2,000,000 tons per year.
Phillip
Jim neglected to spell out the EPC acronym. For those who were wondering: EPC = "Engineering, Procurement, and Construction"
Since they are still talking about "Preliminary Engineering", I think we're looking at quite a while before construction starts. Once plans are done, they need to go through the review and permitting process. Materials can have long lead times also. I'm not seeing second quarter of this year. Maybe second quarter of 2018. The good news is having the EPC under one roof, they will have corporate memory throughout the process and culpability for any errors, omissions, or construction defects.
Phillip
Reverse split.
That 25% assumption is a big assumption. Years ago I had the metrics down for torrified wood, but haven't kept up. I think the Drax plants would be good examples if they have any numbers in their public fillings. One wild card is RBEs magic widget for producing biocoal. If it gives the company a competitive advantage, then it could corner the market.
Phillip
The other thing I'm curious about with this merger is the age demographics of the officers in each company. I was a newlywed in my 20's when this stock spun off from FASC. I'm now in my 40's. I'm sure the officers in BMSP aren't spring chickens anymore. I'm curious if part of this merger is to secure the next generation to run the merged company.
Phillip
We compliment each other. OCR8now focuses on the good news, and being a natural pessimest, I focus on the bad. I had more to say when things weren't going well, and now it's OCR8nows turn that things seem to be improving. I'm just glad I'm not the only one foolish enough to be holding this penny stock this long. If this does ever take off, part of my position is in a Roth IRA so a tax free bonanza would be great.
Phillip
Thanks for the update. His response is similar to others I've seen for years but it's good to hear anyway. If things do progress I would anticipate plenty of news to report. Million dollar question is whether they will. Environmentalists protest Drax so laying under the radar may be the best option. I work with developers and the smartest ones with politically sensitive projects keep a low profile until they have permits in hand and construction underway.
Phillip
While years of waiting has limited my enthusiasm, I do have to admit I'm a little excited that this might actually come to fruition.
I do think the proposed construction schedule is overly ambitious. You can't just line up contractors, permits, and materials overnight. These news releases would be prerequisite to pending construction.
Phillip
You and me both. I had FASC when it spun off to VMHIF. Sold off my position in FASC and bought and sold VMHIF/BMSPF here and there ever since. Lots of "possibilities" along the way with no real explanation from the company when they fell through. After all that, I decided not to buy any more and sit on what I have until I see one specific event occur (no I'm not sharing what that event is).
Raising this capital is no small feat and demonstrates confidence that underwriters have that they will have a sellable product, but I now lack the enthusiasm that I once had years ago. It's still my "retire early stock", but I'm much more ambivalent than I used to be. I now have the "whatever happens, happens" mentality.
Phillip
Longer than 10 years. Spinoff from FASC was in 2001 if I remember correctly. Did Video Movie House for a while before becoming the pellet conglomerate. This long history of on again, off again news releases is why I can only get cautiously optimistic about these latest events. If they truly have a buyer for the bonds, then to me, this is something more tangible than another PR that never comes to fruition. It means someone is confident enough to lay down $60 million and has assurance it will be paid back.
Phillip
I'm experienced enough to know that coolaid exists on blogs and investing forums. At least in ellios blog, I can see what they're working on. Here I just hear the same things I've always heard on every investing forum for 20 years.
Phillip
I follow Ellios blogs more than this group since everyone has an agenda on investing forums. This blog entry has a different perspective.
https://www.eliomotors.com/the-elio-and-snow/
Phillip
Glad to hear it. Hopefully this one will stick. I can't see it going back now that financing is secure. Funny how torrified wood pellets were the product being pursued in the beginning of this company, were then abandoned, and are now what is being sold in the end.
Phillip
Offtake agreements are used to secure financing to build plants. It's a mechanism to satisfy lenders and underwriters that the money provided is secured by something other than a hope that a product will sell. No one would lend or issue bonds without some surety that there's a mechanism to pay it back. It's a chicken and egg scenario where a lender won't lend, the builder can't build, and the product end user can't get their product if some agreement want in place prior to construction to satisfy all parties that they will get what they need before starting construction.
Phillip