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Actually, I think the sign reads "Not for sale to just any old body".
Thanks for that.
That is not a clear assumption at this point. Ariad would have to say so specifically. If patients can afford to pay for it, then probably they should have to.
They can receive payments under the IND but patients will most likely not be reimbursed by insurance.
Guynms26 - THIS IS AN AD and should be deleted by IHUB moderators.
Of course, Ariad can be sold. The pipeline in the lab can be revealed as part of any dew diligence and the pipeline might become more visible if Ariad chooses to try and fight its way out of this box canyon. 113 can be sold or partnered although I'm not sure that any big pharma would be so willing to partner with Ariad right now when they might get the goods in a fire sale later
The easy answer is still a sale of the company because both HB's credibility and, sorry to say, Tim Clackson's credibility have been compromised. The value of the pipeline is the great unknown.
Your post reminds that Ariad is more like a one legged man in an ass kicking contest these days.
Hedge funds have another entry point. Should be interesting to see who is holding how much when the dust has settled. It may well turn out that HB and the current BOD may effectively have lost control.
A hedge fund entry right now is helpful. If will force management to address shareholder interests that might otherwise have gone ignored.
2da, Your sense of risk is misplaced.
The real risks with large shareholders is that they maximize short term gains for themselves and the rest of us at a real cost to the future viability to the company.
2da How would small shareholders get crushed when large shareholders maximize their interests?
Is this a dead cat or a live cat bounce?
"perfect analysis".....????
Stop with the rumors crap. Either state a source or .....
Most of us know that what you are saying can't be true particularly the price.
HB is reducing cash burn as quickly as possible so time frames for operations may be longer than you think. Valuation is still around 8 to 10 when everything is factored in. I suspect HB will want a graceful exit after puts some exhausting fires out so the buyout is certainly on the table.
Being reasonable is not the theme of the morning. Sounds like HB is doing financial damage control. Reasonable valuation is not in this mornings pps
2da - I like your Celgene pick and your price target $15+. Hope it happens.
b-r, I agree. P3's latest post is an important piece to the puzzle.
br - Agree. P3's latest post on the BV board is important.
2da,the day traders sit around praying for these kind of events with huge volume and large daily swings up and down. They are able to move in and out easily because of the volume and so every move gets exaggerated. This is to be expected for a while until the FDA makes a determination about the status of Iculsig.
My speculation is that there will be an expanded black box and that Iclusig will remain on the market.
P2 made some salient points. There should be a great deal of info over the next 3 months that will shape the future prospects. Dr. Berger doesn't have to make a financial move for a while. If he has to go to market in some way, he will have his ducks as much in a row as he can get them. I don't think he will negotiate anything or make any move as long as the house is burning.
With all the selling there is a risk inherent with the new stake holders. So much stock has been sold that the board may have difficulty with activist share holders should they appear. I would be surprised if they don't show up because Ariad has so much residual value.
2da - This is just the end of the crash, so there's a lot of noise and rubble. Convertible? Unlikely. Sell now? also unlikely. Whatever will happen will take some to take shape and during that time stock will get sold.
Ariad going green today in a sea of red biotechs.
Just a little reasoned perspective is worth another few points.
This is still a Carl Icahn moment. Way over sold at this pps.
This a real Carl Icahn moment. Wouldn't surprise me to find him a buyer at these levels
For the first time ever, there is a realistic possibility that Ariad will get bought. This would be Dr. Berger's most graceful exit strategy.
Dec 6 $23.55; Dec 11 $26.15
2 million shares traded in the first half hour while coming off the lows. There is certainly a bid in the stock at this price.
gpo - if my memory serves me well today than the number of patients that can benefit from 113 has been computed on the msg board a number of times and is about 15% to 20% of all NSLC patients and that's hardly a small number.
Tim C says it all.
Perhaps it is because they have not finished the P1/2 trial yet. It is listed as still recruiting as of today.
I think it is note wothy as previously noted that the P2 Denver study with Ponatinib got under way on September 17.
No offense meant but I think that you are enabling some unhelpful analysis of market conditions. The only time to accept a manipulation charge is when it is proven. Manipulation is a term that is just too easy to use, abuse and scaremonger with. The burden of proof is on you if you assert that Ariad stock is being manipulated. If you have no proof well.......
Scientific methodology holds to the principle of parsimony - the simplest answer is the best answer. It is not far fetched to conclude the same is true of market behavior. From my point of view, continuous conspiracies are never the simplest answer and rarely the right ones.
Ariad's trading pattern in the last weeks seem to me to be much more a function of portfolio management by institutions in the end of the quarter and the close of books for many mutual funds. Because Ariad has not been performing well by comparison to other biotechs in recent weeks and months it also doesn't get much love. So when astute institutions that have the ability to hold stocks for longer periods without immediate investor accountability like Goldman Sachs buy into the stock opportunistically on weakness, that does not pass muster as a manipulation. That is just wise investing. Goldman has rightly earned a reputation for questionable ethics in trading against their stated positions; however, that does not mean that their every action is like that. It is too easy to make false generalizations about Goldman. I hope they keep buying because they will look to maximize the trade and I want to be there when it happens (if it happens).
Cramer... stupid ... Right.
Cramer ??? right
Andy, I agree. The real boogeymen are mostly in our minds.
Rum, it looks more like biotech weakness after a run on speculation and Ariad just gets sold with the general trend.
Amazing the Pfizer couldn't move NICE. Now, when Ariad goes to market, there won't be an Bosicrap to contend with.
When that happens, it usually brings a marked drop in stock price some time later so caution to those who own it.
Seems like the hot money is trying to trade SRPT. Some of it probably came from Ariad shares today.