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I'm interested in how all this might fit into some kind of possible strategy by Bob Scott. One extreme: everyone converts to preferred shares. The other extreme: no one converts. What can Bob do with the situation if every last common shareholder were to convert? What can Bob do with the situation if none of us convert? There are plenty of opinions on RB of what he INTENDS to do, mostly cynical, but very little of what he CAN constructively do with the setup as it stands. He says he INTENDS to start an airline and get off the OTCBB. Good goals, eh? Setting aside his intentions, CAN he succeed if that is what he INTENDS to do? Call me old fashioned but I'd be inclined to take him at his word if it looks like he CAN, and if it won't be entirely at my risk and on my back as a shareholder. And I would cooperate with his strategy if I could see what it was.
Hmm. Remember the rally that started and was killed on May 2? That would be nicely explained if the note-holders knew the RS was planned.
Please describe how this is like IDTA. I'm just fishing around for some reason why Bob Scott would benefit from tanking the pps.
For instance, examine this last PR for its content. If you take out the part about 800 to 1 RS, the rest is pretty good. There is something on the cusip change to scare the "shorters", some firm good news for the "longs", and some more generic fluff optimism. But then he tosses in the 800 to 1 RS. He knows that is a very large RS ratio. So what is the point of it?
That doesn't make sense, either.
The "premium to market" is not defined, the "new class" for the preferred shares is not defined, the "semi-annual dividends" are not defined (like thats going to happen soon), the optional "discount to market" back to common stock is not defined. We're supposed to trust him on the fine details. And he has just proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he doesn't give a husky hoot for the shareholders, long term or short.
One easy explanation: He has a bunch of pals buying up shares for the next two weeks. Then he comes out with really great news of some kind. Something tangible. By then hes back with more than 51% control. A mostly private, publically traded company without the cost of an IPO. Is it legal? I just can't see what else he stands to gain by pushing the price to zero from the inside.
What is Bob Scott up to with all this?
It is still hard to see this as a scam.
He is throwing out the baby with the bathwater. Unless he plans on replacing the baby.
The basher brigade is out in force again this evening on RB. News tomorrow maybe?
We need a pump-and-dump index: count the number of pump posts and dump posts, weighted by expertise. See if its a leading indicator.
skunk -
I picked up on that, too. It is hard to see much really negative in it, though. Some bureaucrats are chronocally sceptical and everything they say sounds like that. It is best to wait for more substantive information.
Yes, last week. Four PRs in rapid succession, then huge volume, no price rise.
Wednesday, PR. Thursday, PR. Friday, two PRs back to back. On Friday over 100 million shares traded, with no rise in price. Then ... silence.
Well, I'm not really a penny stock guy but first the obvious: Somebody was selling and somebody was buying ... a whole lot. It seems that lately as soon as it hit 0.007 or so there was a large supply for sale. I think the MM naked shorting idea is a weak explanation in general. The whole picture doesn't seem like a con either, IMHO. What has happened is consistent with the convertible bond hypothesis and there is plenty of evidence of that in the filings. The folk who hold bonds probably just want to get paid and don't want get married to the company. They are like a bank that wants to dump a foreclosed house rather than become a landlord. Somebody bought a whole lot today and they bought pretty cleverly, at an unforseeable (?) dip at the end of the day. That points to people who would know how much debt conversion is left to go, how the MM shenanigans play out, and where the company may really be headed. Maybe longs in the inside with an unknown time frame? Maybe unknown financier(s)? Maybe friends of MMs? Maybe big daytraders? They could have waited to coincide with the exhaustion of the convertibles so as to tie up cash for the maximum profit in the minimum time. All IMHO of course.
Sort of dumb question: Is the Aero Continente Dominicana deal done? It was supposed to be completed on or before April 30, tomorrow. If so then we are really flying already since Aero Continente Dominicana is flying.
Here is an example of the kind of stuff new airlines need to do:
http://www.caribbeanavenue.com/airnews/2000/05/2k0502cstar_iata.htm
Art -
I am in Tucson and work near Hamilton Aerospace. Their inventory is quite visible from adjacent roads except for what might be in a couple of hangers. I have been passing by there almost daily hoping to spot a Viva logo. If I see one I will snap a pic and upload it. There is one L1011 parked among many other planes at the north end of their facility. It is flat white with a red tail, and I don't know whether it has anything to do with Viva, but it could be old TWA colors. The fellow I talked to in the front office seemed unaware that Auxer/Viva was buying an L1011 until I showed him the April 14th press release. This is not surprising since they only do the work for Tristar Capital LLC, who actually certifies L1011s it and who owns it. Hamilton supplies the skilled people but Tristar supplies the certificates for L1011s. That makes me think that Hamilton may not be doing the paint job, or at least not yet.
Last weekend I drove up to Pinal Air Park in Marana and tried to go to Evergreen Air Center. Their security is quite tight and they will not allow people on site without an invitation. They are at the end of a long road surrounded by farmland. Some of their inventory is visible from surrounding farmland but you would need a telescope to look at them. It doesnt look like the kind of place you would want to lurk around. I sent a request to them to take a picture of any Viva planes, and if that works out I will do it and upload them.
Funny coincidence. Yesterday at about 2 PM I was doing the tourist thing, standing in Boot Hill cemetery reading that very tombstone.
According to the insider filing, the inside sellers are expecting proceeds of 3 to 4 cents a share. I wonder if anything can be read from that, or if they just pull the numbers out of thin air.
The emotionalism on the RB board sloshes around like a bucket of slop! LOL
As a motivator you can use a carrot or a stick. When the AXGI crew didn't follow through on the race hype, or even cut us in on what they were doing, it signalled one thing:
Its time for the stick instead of the carrot, vis a vis, AXGI management.
Theres a problem because of the news blackout. The AXGI boosters have very little new information to talk about. Meanwhile the bashers can create whole new nightmare scenarios which can be cut out of "whole cloth". We're in a bear market, at the mercy of future events, the future penny market, and the MMs. It sucks.
The price is consistent with an increase of buy orders near the ask. One of the problems with this stock is people all try to buy at a bargain (near bid) and then sit on it (no limit sells). If they bought at the ask and sold into a rally the MMs might let it run. The MMs probably don't care as long as they get their pound of flesh.
The MMs looked like they pulled the same trick today as yesterday. Buy a bunch at the ask in a series of 5k chunks, then sell it back to themselves at the bid (at a loss) as one big lump trade. Makes it look like somebody is dumping, presumably to induce panic selling and drive down the price. I wish I knew more about the mechanics of the OTCBB MMs, whats legal, whats a grey area, etc. Maybe it involves two MMs, Joe MM buys and sells a bunch from Bob MM one day, then the following day Bob MM returns the favor for Joe MM. That way their balance sheets get settled. All speculation on my part of course. It seems like the easiest assumption to make is that the MMs are like day traders who try to avoid overnight positions most of the time, except when they short. So if they do short it is part of a days long strategy tied to some job they have like selling big blocks into a rally maybe?
You called it :). I'd also say .013/.017 is a bottom. The MMs could walk it down further but only by ignoring buyers which is supposed to be verboten. It'll be interesting to see tomorrow whether they take any early bids at .013 to .016 .
Not much more happening over at RB if you count only the factual posts.
IMHO, it all boils down to what deals Gene has been up to lately and whether it will be reflected in the bottomline in the Q2 filing.
Allusions to Roy Rogers and Jimmy Buffett in the same message. LOL. Two things are bothering me at this point: (1) the OTCBB has such low overall volume that the volume and price might not respond much even if the news is terrific. That leaves us stuck in the clutches of the MMs. That being the case the entire OTCBB is just a bad place to be for the forseeable future. (2) the AXGI management seems to be treating us like mushrooms (keeping us in the dark and feeding us bullsh*t). I figure that it is because the news is mixed, i.e. great revenues, a loss, and sorry but we had to print up some more shares. Seems like Gene isn't getting the message that its put up or shut up time. Lets hope the Q1 looks really good. Happy trails.
Thanks. Now I'll be singing a showtune all evening. Little Orphan Axgi. LOL
I don't think the MMs are dumping. They only seem to be selling what they can buy the same day. I bet they'll let this go if the volume really takes off.
looks like many of the RB regulars are here EOM