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Ok Destinator - you are right. You guys tried en masse to paint it and the TD boys shoved it down your yaps. You have very large angry shareholders that want to take the company out at a dime.
Your complaint is duly noted.
Someone tries to manipulate the shares into a tape-painting high-close and BAM! it gets met head on with a downtick. I think TD is really JPM with Jamie Dimon behind the curtain.
I could care less about the manner in which EXS has been cut in half since January - the fact remains that it has been cut by 60% of the high of $.50. I simply object to the finger-pointing that it is "someone else's fault" that the share price has been clobbered. Many shareholders wanted a JV deal last year so as to minimize dilution as did a certain director. I have never doubted the geological potential of TPW once in the five years of ownership but it would seem that the market is detecting that financial risk now outweighs geological risk and these are two separate and important discussions that many in this forum refuse to acknowledge.
Nobody wins when a deal gets torpedoed by disgruntled shareholders - least of all me. Ask the Lakeshore cheerleaders how they feel with LSG almost a penny-stock again. These are difficult junior mining markets and the primary cause of Explor's share price is the outflows of money from the sector, not some "group" directing traffic behind the curtain wearing fake noses and moustaches.
Good luck to all.
meant to type: "Cesspool"
It is time to abandon that other forum and begin a new discussion here.
SH is a ceespool.
So now it is TD that is the conspirator? What happens when CIBC starts the algo-driven dump? What if Schwab starts doing the same? Don't you hate it when your conspiracy theories prove false?
Oh well...maybe the precious metals markets will turn higher and drive the whole junior mining sector higher with them...
Thank you, PB. Appreciate your help.
Pastorboy: did TD come back with an opinion on the selling? How long has this opinion been out? sounds like the sell order was large and an institutional client with the order? Who spoke to TD?
Re: OSC Reference to maniplation
How would a large institutional SELL ORDER constitute a fraud or manipulation?
Just asking'...
Oh yeah - Morgan Stanley is also a Gorilla Algo working the VWAP as well...
Just spoke to a institutional desk trader buddy of mine...the TD seller is using a "gorilla algorithm" to either execute a large block sale OR is simply working the VWAP market. This is hi-teck HST garbage of the highest order and contrary to the Conspiracy Theorists out there, NOBODY is trying to manipulate the EXSFF market downward, unless you have the IP address of the computer in charge of the order and can hack into it. Good luck with that...
The only way TD disappears is for natural demand to take them out of the market. Natural Demand will occur when results compel new buyers to surface. When somebody gets the skinny from TD's institutional desk, post it up. I think you will all find that it was/is an institutional sell order. Dumb order, given the potential but an order nonetheless.
There is a lot of anger in this forum. Just ask yourselves what your ownership horizon is and whether or not they can hit the magic "ounces" number within the current cash on hand. If you can answer that question, you can manage the anger. If you are unable to answer the question, then you should be angry for failing to be realistic in your expectations and are therefore simply and purely SPECULATING. Still a heckuva shot for the speculative dice-roller...
Havent been here much lately but if I had to guess who was selling.... i would say it is Mr. Malim???? does anybody know how many shares he was given? And if hes pissed off at CD and Explor.... What better way then to destroy the price for the time being. He doesnt have to report any selling now that he is not on the board...
Mr. Malim did have a following that came into the EXS market in 2009 under $.40. Perhaps his departure prompted them to question their involvement. The resignation of any director would have set off a few alarms in any company. The timing was unfortunate.
I have only one remark: Mother Nature made her decision thirty-million years ago and cares not a whit about the price of Explor shares or "who is selling". CD is fully capable of unlocking the mystery of the Bristol porphyry and in fact has probably already done it. It all comes down to EXECUTION. Period, end.
Where is everyone?
Good luck to all - in time, EXSFF will be huge for all of us. Hope you all make a fortune. My last post here...total waste of time. GLTA.
Andrew Malim brought in over 7,000,000 shares of buying and over $3m of placement $$$ in the December 2010 financing. There are many rumours and opinions out there but A.M. did everything in his power to assist in establishing the committees that are now required by the regulators. He did a great job during the 2009-2010 period. Where the entire deal started to break down was two weeks before the drill results were announced (Feb 2010)when CD and one other Director sold stock in the $1.10 + range BEFORE the results were released. While there was nothing out of order in these sales, they "appeared" to be classic "pump and dump" and the stock has never recovered credibility since the $1.63 peak in late February 2010. Most exploration companies order a freeze on transactions when a speculation on a drill program gets frenzied (such as LSG). EXS management did exactly the reverse.
The TPW project has enormous potential but it also has enormous expense associated with it. Each deep hole is $250,000 and the wedges are about $150,000 each. Each 100 metres along strike is one pilot hole plus 3 or 4 wedges adding 500,000 ounces so the current $10m funding will allow them to step out at least 10 times. So IF they hit the same width in every pilot and then hit on every wedge, you could see 5,000,000 ounces UNLESS the zone pinches out or they are unsuccessful in their targeting.
This needle needs to be threaded very carefully in order to reach that inflection point referred to in the BNN interview so while the potential is enormous, it is the RISK that has the market spooked. Explor is drilling a "major mining company project" with a "junior mining company budget" where one slip-up could derail everything. Get a partner like AEM or G or ABX and the world will breathe a sigh of relief and the share price would double overnight. The stock is very, very cheap sub-$.30 IMHO and what will trigger the next big SUSTAINABLE move is the $65 billion question.
I also visited a couple of other select booths that are being hailed as the next greatest.
Which booths are you referring to, Destinator? I would be fascinated to know which ones you are analyzing as "nowhere close to EXS"...
Not intending to "tease"...Explor will get "taken" up next time largely without the selling pressure that occurred after the big drill hole news of yore. The entry point below $.30 has been a superb entry point time after time after time. Unfortunately, I doubt that we will see any significant volume anywhere near $.30 again. As for the TPW project, I am hearing lots of positive things. (Abd btw, "who" is my "neighbour"?)
The sellers are now gone. This should be back at $.40-.50 by the Ides of March. Amazing how the bickering and "Fire CD" talk marked the s/t bottom. Stock will be $.50 bid and the Board will be high-fiving him for bringing in the "significant large institution" at a good price.
Next significant event will be the "major takeover" and "sizzling drill hole coming" rumours followed by fifty cut-and-pastes of bullish commentary on gold and gold stocks.
EXSFF was "ridiculously cheap" at $.30 and the wise sellers into the drilling news just replaced all of their stock in the past week 35% lower. Rinse and repeat. Ad infinitum.
The next big movie sequel to hit the Big Screen will be "Return to Eastford Lake" starring a boatload of deep-pocketed players backing a brand new joint venture partner. This will be a blockbuster and the good news is that will be a huge help to fuel the EXS story.
Glad to be a longterm shareholder here...
EXS will be back at $.40 in a month. You just knew a funding was coming when Chris hummed and hawed during the conference call. Funding will close and then we dance. This funding should get EXSFF to 1.5mm ounces by year-end.
Oh will you give us a break? "Manipulation" is the word you use when you a losing stock you own goes lower against your comprehension level. "Profit-taking" is what happens when you are the seller at a profit and a stock pulls back. Next thing you know we will have the Explor Underwater Shareholders Human Rights Forum where you stand up in the front of the group and explain why you think you aren't retired yet.
EXS is a GREAT story with a sensational property so the timing challenge is determining when that "inflection point" will occur. Until then, you hold a core position and use downside reactions and upside spikes to trade your way to a lower ACB.
In the meantime, I think a good idea would be to j.v. all of the OTHER EXS properties using another vehicle and create some ancillary interest other than TPW.
What think all of you?
How long will it take to do what? drill off more ounces? hit the inflection point? or to get back to $1.63 so we can all sell our stock? I cannot see more than 1m ozs by year-end; only nature knows when the inflection point is reached; and as far as "new all-time highs", I am looking out to 2013 (and that is just a guess).
The drill holes have been great. The story has been great. The dilution has been frightening and that is why you see selling pressure. In 2008, the company achieved a market cap of $36m after raising $6m. In 2012, the company has a market cap of $43m (undiluted) after raising $40m. This speaks to the issue of the marginal return of capital. If you raise an additional $40m and are then capped at $80m, the incremental PER SHARE return is ZERO. For every $1 raised, you should increase the value of your franchise by $4. You should be at a market cap of $160m today on that basis. However, you would also be valued at $200 per ounce "inferred" which is 4 times the industry norm. So how in the @#$# do use "manipulation" as the bogeyman? The inflection point will come when it comes and CD will deliver it. The gnarling and gnashing of teeth in here is because you THINK the stock should be at a certain price point and don't do the analysis of why it actually ISN'T. I spoke to Chris yesterday morning for an hour and raised all of the concerns that all of you have voiced in here and the answer boils down to this: a ten million ounce deposit will be valued at $100 per ounce or $1 billion. If EXSFF has 250m shares out by that time point, you get $4. If gold is at $2500, perhaps it rises to $150-200 per ounce and you get $6-8 per share. So ask yourselves how many more months it will take to get a potential suitor to recognize the 10m ounces and how many more drill holes are required to achieve that type of inferred resource.
Cheerleading should be saved for the high school football games; whining should be saved for the women's bridge club social; and rationale discussion is what we should be engaging in.
This discussion group might want to consider what would happen if Explor was not ABLE to raise drilling fund money...no drilling, no news, no news, no story, no story, no buyers, no buyers, no nothing. Good night Irene. So as I have said continuously, the Explor is a suberb longer term investment/speculation but my time with it has shown me that it is very costly and requires a major mining company budget. And keep in mind that the upside in ounces is tenfold bigger due to the proximity to Timmins and the size of the Bristol porphyry. Even with 300m shares o/s, a 10m ounce deposit will lift EXS to many many multiples of the current price but it will NOT happen tomorrow. That is perhaps why I get so snarky when I read all of the cheerleading in this forum that fails to address the points i have just raised. Market's don't lie and this garbage about manipulation is just that - garbage. EXS has many many shareholders from the original 2007 placement at $.20 that took profits in the latest run-up to $.50 and that is what happens when a heavily-promoted stock (2009-2010) gets creamed by drill-hole disappointment and constant funding pressures. The stock traded its entire share float in 2009 and 2010 with most of the turnover above $.75 so the overhead resistance is enormous. You need constant institutional interest in the open market to absorb the supply and that just can't happen when every dollar of new shareholder interest goes into these placements. As far as management is concerned, CD has the backing of Greg McC and MDO and a number of quite prominant players in the junior mining arena so to say he is a "lousy presenter or promoter" is bunk, notwithstanding the $38m he has raised in the public arena. He is taking on a mammoth challenge with a mammoth potential prize but one that will take time and our continued patience and if Explor loses Chris Dupont and his team, the stock will be a nickel bid in a heartbeat.
Just my two cents worth...
"Did you not possibly answer yourself ?"
Actually no I did not answer myself nor did your response. Explor management could prevent the "double-back" by not telegraphing every financing. There is no more a degree of "manipulation" than if one single large shareholder decides to sell a large block using a limit order with a downside minimum. Was it "manipulation" that one of our posters decided to sell a large block below Monday's price? OF COURSE NOT. Sellers meet buyers and buyer meet sellers. It is called "bid and offer".
Toronto Venture Exchange a "cesspool"?
The following world-class mines/discoveries have been financed by that "cesspool":
Barrick's Carlin Trend Nevada "Goldstrike" discovery
Diamondfield's Voisey's Bay nickel discovery
Eskay Creek B.C. Canada
Lornex Copper Moly porphyry
El Sauzal Mexico
The entire Canadian Diamond industry
Most of the mines in B.C./Ontario.
So the much-vaunted NYSE should be revered? ENRON, Worldcom, Lehman Brothers, sub-prime, Bernie Madoff, and the worst of all MF GLOBAL....yeah my assets are a lot safer in the NY "blue-chips" now, aren't they?
Sometimes I just shake my head at the absolute stupidity of some people. My earlier post to Elcaribes was as "tongue-in-cheek" sarcastic as I could ever dream of. These allegations of "manipulation" of EXS are as absurd as any I have ever heard or read anywhere. You have 140 MILLION shares issued with around 125 MILLION trading freely. Does any securities firm/institution/newsletter group have enough stock to influence the price to the extent that they want their investment to be LOWER in price? for what reason? If they are selling to double back into a financing to get the flow-through benefits or to scoop the warrants, I could understand that. Will someone please explain to me WHY anyone wants to cap the price of Explor with a coordinated "manipulation"??? Please. As posted before, I am big believer in Explor and have tried to explain the challenges in front of all of us but to read this utter nonsense about some dastardly "conspiracy" to "manipulate" EXS down (OR UP) is just way out there. Heck, we could accuse certain internet cheerleaders of trying to "manipulate" the price UPWARD by inferring that majors like AEM or GG are going to buy Explor out. We should get the securities commissions to investigate the "pumping" being done on certain internet discussion forums! Markets are markets and for every seller there is a buyer. Obviously the market is telling us that Explor is not yet ready to take off. If the market wants to take it up, no one will be able to stop it. End of story.
Have a great weekend everyone and keep the faith.
Elcaribes - you are being counterproductive to the future performance of Explor by posting these ascerbic messages. As you well know, it is chatrooms like this that affect the performance of companies like AEM and EXSFF over the longer term so we are obligated to post only positive comments on this board at all times. Anything other than positive comments can only be read as a means of manipulating price and as such will not be tolerated.
IIROC is "Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada" and OSC is "Ontario Securities Commission".
Destinator: "Theatrics" might refer to comparing CD's credibility to any one else's as you did earlier. The only "issue" being evaded here has NEVER been Explor's potential nor Dupont's abilities/knowledge/competence but rather your refusal to accept honest ctitical debate in this or any other forum. I for one am tired of the constant personal attacks whenever you are confronted with an honest point of concern. I have been a shareholder longer than you have so what is the problem here? I have perfectly realistic expectations for Explor and they are all quite bullishly inclined but they are also granted without the brass band and girls tossing batons. Lighten up.
Whether CD is more or less "credible" than "Miningjunkie016" is not really the point here now, is it? Seriously? We are all shareholders here and we all want to see $10 per share. I have an opinion that continues to change every time a placement gets completed and every time a drill hole is reported. It is called DILUTION, Destinator!
But for sake of argument, let's just say I look for a takeover from a major at $50 per share. I guess that now gives me credibility. At $2.00 per share, I have zero credibility, right? And if I tell you, Destinator, that DILUTION is not relevant and will not hurt EXS, that makes me credible and a "team player". OK, dilution doesn't matter; now pass the pompoms.
Bywisdom - for the record - I actually did not give anyone a target price. I gave an example of the impact of dilution on an ultimate buyout price. I own shares in Explor; I am a longterm player;I am one of the "team players". What I am NOT is a "cheerleader" that runs around posting crap that is factually incorrect. Do I have the "dream"? Of course I do but after four and a half years as a shareholder, do you think I might be a little less "dreamy" than I was in 2008 when the stock rocketed from my first p.p. at $.20 to $.90 and I didn't even think to sell one share? There is no one better in the field than CD. NO ONE. He will deliver. Of that I have NO DOUBT. As I posted earlier today, the VALUE per SHARE of what he delivers is uncertain at THIS time. Period. NO ONE KNOWS what avarice lurks in the minds and hearts of men. If anyone knows, please message me.
What is my long term outlook for this company?
As I have thought since May 2007, Explor will get very lucky on one of the "elephant" prospects and be taken out by a major. It could quite conceivably be TPW and the only question is "At what cost of dilution?" If you had gotten lucky back in 2010 and gotten taken out at $300 million of cap, with 75m shares issued and outstanding, we would have received $4.00 per share. Here in 2012 with 140m o/s and possibly soon to be 170m o/s, if a major walks in and pays $300m, we get around $2.30 per share. If we drill off 2m ounces worth $3 billion and you get 10% of that number in value on a buyout, great. We are at 800,000 ounces now with 140m o/s. If you can tell me what the issued and outstanding will be when Explor hits the magic 2m ounce-figure, I'll tell you EXACTLY what my longterm outlook PER SHARE will be. I have every faith in Chris Dupont's ability to deliver those ounces and I love the EXS land package and I love owning a company with assets in the magnificent Abitibi Greenstone Belt of Canada, the most mining-friendly country on the planet.
Hope this clarifies my thoughts. And if anyone disgrees with me, that's ok too, because I own more stock in Explor than anyone else posting in here, unless of course, Dupont is using an alias that we don't know of. My money is where my mouth is and has been for four years plus.
Hilarious - "weak longs", "manipulations", "stupid sellers" - this entire discussion group slays me. From where I sit, if the fundamentals for Explor - i.e. the "undervaluation" - was so plainly obvious, then the institutional community would have already cleaned out the paper and it would be trading higher. Second point on "institutional involvement" - do ANY of you not think that CD and EXSFF have not ALREADY been in front of institutions? Well, they HAVE and that is why EXS has drilling money. Instead of being driven into the open market, they just throw the $5-10m into the placement, pick up the free warrant and voila! the demand that would normally drive the stock higher is spent funding the drilling! This is precisely the kind of dilutive spiral that frightens investors away. On a positive note, I see the West Timmins camp heating up again and for that reason, I see retail interest gaining traction and that should give us a lift above $.50 again soon. If you own the paper at $.40 yesterday and sell at $.50 tomorrow, you make 20% in short order. Pretty good trade for us and a nice add-on to the millions of shares we all own as a core position.
Destinator - it really doesn't matter who I am. What matters is that I have been a longterm shareholder and supporter by way of my ownership of the various private placements. All the carping on this board reminds me of the griping back in early 2009 before it gapped up. The inflection point IS coming but my contention is that Dupont is doing a great job and deserves full credit for the 800,000 ounces of inferred resource. He has more money in this deal than this entire board combined and is well aware of the price of the stock. Cut him some slack and let him do his job instead of everyone looking for the next Bob Friedland to blow it off to a major for $50 per share tomorrow. Would be nice but ain't going to happen.
"So, the term 'some will be kicking themselves' gets attention from the gold bullion market. I wonder what sellers of EXS will be doing in the future? What new term will EXS sellers come up with?
"Gosh Darn it! I wish I held onto my shares when I had them."?
Something tells me it is going to be a little more harsh than that. :0 - Destinator"
I have heard that about ten times since 2007. Every spike in price is met with euphoria with the longs all cheering and popping champagne corks while the "insidious evil sellers" quietly lay off their trading position into the spike only to wait for the inevitable pullback and then replace it. You can always tell by the wailing and whining and abject misery that happens when the drill hole doesn't cause the stock to open at $2.50 and trade straight to $30. I saw that last week when someone(not me!) blew out 500k at $.47 and the pom-poms suddenly went still and the high-fiving came to an abrupt halt.
Until you have an institutional audience (over 50% ownership), EXSFF will continue to a retail-dominated stock and because of that, you treat it as such. I was a flag-waver in the run to $1.63 in Feb 2010 and thought that it was a transgression of the highest order to sell any stock. Two Directors did above $1.00 and then a whole bunch of other longs sold stock and then it crashed to $.50 from $1.63 after one drill hole announcement.
So much for loyalty...I am still a flag-waver but I am also a realist and that is why some people trade the stock because if I only hold 50% of my position free of cost and miss replacing it, I sure as hell will not be saying "Gosh Darn I sure wish I had my shares back..."
Maris:
When did they re-price stock options? Malim refused the re-pricing back in the summer as did Union Securities 750,000 @ $.92.
There are actually more than a few insiders trying to put forth the proper corporate governance. The carping and sniping in here is ridiculous and how it is so difficult to grasp the fact that there is a lot of "tired stock ownership" out there is beyond me.
Typical Timmins Camp, Abitibi Greenstone Belt-type gold intercept. Nice width and grade in the vein system with the doubters pointing to the "other low-grade holes" that are, too, typical of drilling into the south limb of the classic syncline.
The model is being slowly borne out and over time, shareholders will benefit. In the interim, EXSFF must get the price up prior to the next financing which I understand is being pressured by the underwriters. In the meantime, you should all sit back and relax and set a twelve-month target north of $.75 - that way you set the "bar of expectations" at a lower level and are programming yourself to be patient.
Most big "passes" take time but are immensely rewarding.
Good luck to all.
who was the ANON seller prior to the Webinar (or how about DURING)?
There was a boatload of BUYING sub-$.30 in the late November period by a few very smart traders that saw opportunity. If they unloaded stock into the spike, good for them. Who do you think it was, Destinator?