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chasky: hope the recovery continues to go well... tough time of year for that sort of thing.
Jim
BRST only has 3 employees... at least according to Yahoo finance... is that one engineer and two lawyers? Wait, I guess they probably hired their legal help on contingency, so those 3 emplyees will get to split a few hundred thousand after the lawyers take theirs...
Jim
blava: thx for the info... eom
WLD: you may be right about that (it can't be right that the new macbooks require Leopard)... the frustrating fact is that AAPL makes it nearly impossible to tell if that is correct or not... I am increasingly frustrated by AAPL's vague specifications on their site... no mention in MBP specs about details of 15" screen vs. 17"... no mention anywhere about running the latest laptops in Tiger, not even in their support area... I haven't had time to check their forums...
But the fact is that AAPL is providing less information than before and what little information they do provide on such things these days seems to be intentionally vague -- that is bad, IMO... some of us care about the details and want to know exactly what's what...
Why can't/won't AAPL spell this stuff out clearly at least on the so-called "detailed" specs pages on their site?
Jim
clearsailing: it was pretty obvious to me that Leopard would run on at least intel-based laptops, so I answered my own question so to speak on that one...
The question I was really more interested in (and fi more or less answered) was: will the new laptops (that got the quiet/stealth upgrade) require Leopard, or will they boot from Tiger 10.4.11? Not that I would do such a thing, but at least wanted to know if it were an option if it turns out some apps are upgraded to Leopard only and I want to continue using my stable Tiger setup for mission-critical stuff on a new laptop I plan to buy in the next 2-3 weeks.
Thanks,
Jim
Tex: I know that a year or two ago CREE was a supplier to AAPL, but don't know if that is still true and their (CREE) website doesn't really say.
Jim
OT: Kyoto protocol expires in 2012... so doesn't matter much whether the US ratifies or not since 4 years is hardly enough time to matter...
Will have to start from scratch anyway... might as well do it now as wait for the non-existent Kyoto P. to achieve anything except give Sunday morning yakkers something more to blah, blah, blah about.
Thx fi... not sure that I'd ever want to do it, but when I do buy my new laptop, I may not be in a mood to replace/upgrade apps that are 10.5 only... might want to have a dual OS X boot with one partition booting into 10.5 for its sweetness, and one into Tiger for guaranteed smooth transition from old apps to new...
Jim
Bootz: you missed the part where I said that my question about older laptops running 10.5 had been answered...
My 2nd question remains unanswered... unless I have missed something so obvious to you?
Sorry I am such a dolt.
Jim
Anyone found a definitive answer to the question: will currently
shipping laptops run under Tiger/do they require 10.5? and can
previous laptops run 10.5?
I see that the 2nd is probably true, but can't figure out if the 1st is true or not.
I was hoping that the release of 10.4.11 would have the answer, but if it does, I can't see it.
Anyone?
Thanks,
Jim
Stupid me, I actually added trading shares this week in the 160s and 150s... what was I thinking?
Oh yeah, I was thinking about making some easy money... wouldn't have minded seeing 125 -- very temporarily...
So I expect these high volatility days will only increase over the next 6 mos. before yen carry trade begins to unwind or mortgage resets in spring/summer provide the catalyst for a major down trend/correction -- unless the PPT draws a line in the sand and says: "not during a Pres. election cycle" which of course would mean massive liquidity injections and an acceleration in inflation and dollar devaluation... next year looks to be a high volatility rollercoaster with the broad markets torn between two masters.
Jim
As a savvy older gentleman on Nightly Biz Report said the other night, it is not important to buy at the absolute low or sell at the very top... just get close to each and you'll do fine...
Jim
Citigroup rumor has e-trade going bankrupt... something like $5 billion in bad CDOs and only $4.6 billion in assets...
E-Trade halved on warning, sell rating
Online broker backs off outlook, citing securities portfolio
By Greg Morcroft, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:20 PM ET Nov 12, 2007
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NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of E-Trade Financial Corp. lost more than half their value Monday, plunging as the company faces more subprime-related write-downs and as analysts at Citigroup suggest a possible bankruptcy for the online broker.
Moreover, Fitch Ratings downgraded the firm's collateralized CDO asset manager rating to CAM4 from CAM2- in light of concerns about E-Trade's ability to manage exposure to some debt securities.
The rating agency said E-Trade's performance on CDOs, short for collateralized debt obligations, remains below the average of its peers.
Companies with CAM4 ratings, Fitch explained Monday, "will generally necessitate heightened ... surveillance owing to the presence of situations or conditions in need of improvement or as a result of significant recent changes in operating practices, ownership, management, operational infrastructure, and/or business strategy that give rise to concerns regarding the match between the organization's current competencies and wherewithal and the planned execution of CDO investment objectives."
Shares of E-Trade closed off 58.2%, to $3.58.
E-Trade COO and President Jarrett Lillien said that there are no immediate plans to change management or any new announcements pending.
"My feeling is that there are no knee jerk actions that we need to take in next few days, but if we need to take actions to restore confidence, all we want is to do what's best with the franchise, I'm not important what's important is the franchise," Lillien told MarketWatch in an interview Monday.
"We'll take whatever actions we need to take," he said.
Monday's declines added to losses that the shares sustained in late trading Friday, after the company warned about further write-downs in the fourth quarter. E-Trade also backed away from an earnings forecast issued less than a month ago, because the value of its asset-backed securities portfolio dropped further.
"Bankruptcy risk cannot be ruled out," Citi analysts wrote in a note Sunday. They also lowered E-Trade's rating to sell.
"In our case, we have a couple of analysts that seem to like to take as much of the information as they can and sensationalize things," Lillien said.
Also, late Friday, E-Trade revealed that it is the target of an informal Securities and Exchange Commission inquiry regarding its loan and security portfolios.
Will customers pull their assets?
"The continued negative news flow about charges resulting from its mortgage and CDO exposure, an SEC inquiry and continued deterioration in its financial condition all increase the likelihood of significant client attrition," the Citi analysts said.
In particular, they could move assets to online rivals such as Charles Schwab Corp. and TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. , with the Citi analysts noting that both companies "have been unscathed by subprime/CDO issues."
TD Ameritrade's shares rose 6.4% in recent action, while Schwab shares added 4.6%.
"We have been communicating with customers since August so it's not a new thing," Lillien said. "We have been talking about the safety of their accounts, and we had a lot of conversations with customers today."
"When you get a move in your stock like today, you are going to have more discussions with everyone," he added. "The issue is what kind of capital is there? We feel we have plenty of excess liquidity and capital," Lillien said.
E-Trade said that the fair value of its $3 billion asset-backed securities, or ABS, portfolio has continued to decline since the end of the third quarter. CDOs and other securities backed by second-lien mortgages saw the biggest hits, the broker explained.
"We estimate that trying to liquidate E-Trade's loan and ABS portfolio would result in over $5 billion of losses, more than wiping out tangible equity," Citi analysts said. They estimated the write-downs and provisions would total about $500 million.
E-Trade had roughly $450 million in total exposure to asset-backed CDOs and second-lien securities as of Sept. 30. That included about $50 million of AAA-rated asset-backed CDOs that have been downgraded to junk status.
The drop in value will result in further write-downs during the fourth quarter -- something that hadn't been expected when E-Trade updated its 2007 earnings outlook just on Oct. 17.
Profit forecasts 'no longer beneficial'
"Investors should no longer expect these earnings levels to be achieved," the broker said in a statement.
"Actual securities-related losses will depend on future market developments, including the potential for future downgrades by rating agencies, which are extremely difficult to predict," the company added. "Accordingly, management believes it is no longer beneficial to provide earnings expectations for the remainder of the year."
Separately, E-Trade said Monday that total daily average revenue trades rose 23% in October from the previous month, to 227,344.
Total retail client assets also rose, increasing 4% to $226.7 billion, the online broker said. Gross new retail accounts for October were 105,601, brining total retail accounts to about 4.74 million.
"Monthly results were quite positive. We have been able to keep growth going," Lillien said. End of Story
Greg Morcroft is MarketWatch's financial editor in New York.
Looks like another $8-$10 haircut today...
Guess I'll wait to add when it looks like the knives stop falling.
Jim
AAPL just fell off a cliff in last 30 mins.... now in the 158 range, and getting pretty darn close to price where I will add more trading shares.
Jim
That's me! (Crazy)... eom
Call me crazy, but added just a bit of AAPL shares long today... either a sure sign of the apocalypse, or bottom... take your pick...
Jim
Just in case, I have a stink bid in @ $157... across all PFs, my combined ave. cost basis for AAPL shares long is 28.85... with some as low as 3.515...
I doubt the stink bid will fill, but it is "ace" insurance that would give me cheer even as the share price was tanking -- even though it seems really expensive compared to my other shares, would not hesitate to buy AAPL below 160 right now.
Otherwise, trading puts on current longs helps mitigate bottom line pain on these short term moves, but don't even have stops set for AAPL shares.
Got a great deal at a "fire sale" on a rug for the shack... little bit of smokey fragrance from the rug is really nice on these cold fall nights down by the river where temps are dipping into 50s...
Hizzonner,
Jim
It's official now. The bottom is in. Between roni (Ronin?) buying massive calls and ace posting, we have clear TA indications that the short/intermediate term bottom is in.
Jim
Once again, roni proves to be leading indicator... eom
HappyDog: I also ran all of my stocks through it and much of my watch list and actually found a fair number of dogs where the current price was higher than intrinsic or relative values returned by the calculator... and a lot of smaller cap stocks didn't return any values at all... but I agree that it painted a very rosy picture for most...
Just as an example, though, try it with AEM, or AUY... or MOT, or F, or any company with no or negative earnings.
Jim
Relative value and Intrinsic Value calculator... saw this posted on another site and thought I'd run AAPL through it...
http://www.askivan.com/ask_ivan/index.asp
Can't vouch for accuracy, etc., but interesting nonetheless...
Recent Price: 186.18
Relative Value: 143.35
Intrinsic Value Current Fiscal Year EPS 232.95
Intrinsic Value Next Fiscal Year EPS: 289.54
Wow! Haven't seen spam here in a long time eom
Yeah, those petty rules against running red lights and speeding are for all of the other chumps out there, not ME!
LOL!
Textbook rationalization.
No, I don't (have never) downloaded anything pirated... don't run red lights (dangerous)... guess I'm a chump.
Jim
Maybe if more people were to do this instead, the powers that be would finally open their vaults and allow for legal downloads for those of us willing to pay for the content vs. using an off-shore site to do so.
Maybe if less people did this, the studios would feel more comfortable striking a deal with a company like AAPL to make that content available easily and reasonably priced.
Your reasoning is something like: if enough people would rob banks, maybe banks would hand out money for free or very low interest.
Reminds me of the teenager protesting to their parents: "but everybody's doing it" to justify dodgy behavior.
But looking like this dead horse has been re-beaten to death too many times...
Moving on...
Jim
fi: you've convinced me I need to at least make the effort to drive down to the Apple Store (about 40 mins away) and see for myself... I'm starting to think I might be leaning toward the 15" MBP -- just had our company fiscal year-end staff meeting and we looking at record profit sharing/bonuses the 2nd week of Dec... I think I've earned the right to spend some of mine on a pro laptop and start to phase desktops out of my life -- desktops take up a lot of room in shacks like mine...
Hizzzonner,
Jim
degackz: understood, but part of my thinking is that I don't want to spoil the child with the latest greatest computer right before going off to college -- besides, she might choose a college that requires/includes a laptop... trying not to have her expect/feel entitled to anything... for example, she turns 16 soon (she is very young for a HS jr.), but no car... in fact, I've told her we will never buy her a car, while she lives at home she is welcome to borrow one of ours if we're not using them (and I know they will be safe, reliable and insured)...
Did I mention that the iDaughter now uses (when the iWife wins the fight over the macbook) a 6-yr-old G4? So anything I buy right now will be a big improvement from her perspective.
When I graduated from HS, my folks gave me a used portable manual typewriter and a dictionary... I bought a used bike and built my own stereo (except speakers)...
I don't think I'd be a bad dad foisting a lightly used 1-1/2 year old laptop on the child... if it isn't good enough, she's welcome to buy her own (as she did her own iPod and Playstation)... I'll be using the new one to manage my finances and make sure I have enough money to lend her when she needs money (at prevailing interest rate -- just as my parents charged me when I borrowed money from them in college)...
Jim
(is aka Scrooge Dad)
PS. AAPL and my other investments have done so well the past couple of years that I donated my cardboard box under the freeway overpass to a homeless family who lost their home to fire, and I moved on up to a plywood and tarp shack down on the banks of the San Luis Rey River just upstream from the migrant worker camps... also have ditched the sterno for TJ Swan and MadDog 20/20... hizzonnner
Re: 15" vs. 17" MBP screens... I finally stopped being lazy and went to the apple site to settle (in my mind) the issue about what kind of screens each model uses... after 30 mins., I cannot tell anyone with any certainty anything beyond the fact that the 15" MBP uses a backlit LED -- and it took awhile to find that factoid out...
No place I could find on the Apple site said a word in any tech spec or otherwise about whether the 17" MBP uses LED or LCD, so I assume it is LCD and assume the macbook is LCD as well... I make that assumption based solely on the fact that Apple specifically mentions a backlit LED for the 15" MBP, and says nothing beyond the usual TFT blah, blah, blah for the 17" specs...
I admit I have not paid attention to this stuff as it was not important to me until now... now that I'm interested in buying a MBP vs. a macbook.
I do not like it when Apple (or any other company) seemingly intends to be vague about such things... it might appear to someone with a cynical mind that the company does this intentionally with the notion that most misled customers won't/wouldn't know the difference... like me... unless one actually compared side by side.
Jim
chas: thx, don't know why I thought the smaller MBP has a different display from the 17" (LED/LCD?)... erm, yes I do... I be too lazy to simply look it up on Apple.com
Anyway, thx...
Jim
Chasky: thx, but if I go for MBP, it would be partly to get the LCD screen... the 17" does not yet feature that, right?
Although, it is entirely possible that I set out to buy a minimal macbook just for casual mobility and end up getting a tricked out 17" MBP... sometimes... stuff... just happens...
Of course, a prudent man who is also the father of a HS jr. might simply buy a laptop suited for college, use it for a year and then let the iDaughter take it to college, while the wise old father buys the laptop of his dreams to replace the one he "gave" to the iDaughter.
Jim
Thx fi... are you still having supply issues with 15" MBPs? eom
KCMW: good points, but doesn't really get to my issues... I have a perfectly fine desktop and monitor, but I hate having to sit in what used to be my fine home office, but ever since accepting a "real job" (as my wife calls it) last year, that room is now part guest room, part storage, and a corner desk with computer, router, airport, laser printer, along with some filing cabinets... gets hot quickly in there and not even enough room to swivel the desk chair... I use it when I have to for specific functions, but much prefer lounging somewhere (poolside, bed, couch, etc.) when just doing internet or other light work -- hence leaning toward a minimal macbook.
But if the screen is significantly better on a MBP (not that I have any real issues with the iWife's macbook screen), that along with the superior video, etc. might make a 15" MBP justifiable since it would mean less time in the tiny room.
FWIW: my backup stratigery includes using/rotating 3 external FW 800/USB 2 drives -- have only used the USB connection once while traveling and much prefer the FW800 for backups...
Jim
fi: I am getting ready to order a new laptop (for me this time -- last two I bought were for my Dad and my wife) and am wondering about the screens of macbooks vs. macbook pros... there is no convenient/close place where I can actually go and look at macbooks and MBPs side by side... what is your opinion on the two? Is the LCD screen on the 15"MBP a lot better than the screen on a macbook -- in your opinion, of course?
Anyone else have an opinion?
I keep waffling about getting the MBP to replace 80% of my desktop use vs. getting a macbook for cheap mobility (but maybe only replacing 50% or less of my desktop use).
Jim
Last I checked, more than 50% of HP's profits come from ink and supply sales, not boxes or printers... of course you gotta sell a lot of printers to sell that much ink, but the profits are in the ink, not the printers.
Jim
Buffett is right about at least one thing these days... he said in the past week that Canadian oil sands will be very very important/critical to both the US and Canada...
IMO, he is spot on there... in addition to some oil sands exposure via ECA (thx to lango's idea a few years ago), I'm also holding BQI...
BTW: as time goes by, I appreciate ECA all the more... originally, their nat gas resources attracted me, especially their holdings in the Columbia River Basin (CRB)... now their swap of some oil sands for 1/2 of a refinery to refine oil sands... I used to think Aubrey @ CHK was the genius... no longer... I much prefer the people at ECA and XTO (and no longer own any CHK).
Jim
Good pt. on Buffett... but one minor correction... yes, he cut back on two railroad positions, but picked up 17% of a 3rd railroad... this was published Monday:
"Last week, Berkshire disclosed that it had purchased another 7.85 million shares of railroad behemoth Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI). Berkshire now owns more than 60.8 million shares of the Texas-based railroad company, a stake currently worth more than $5 billion. Berkshire also holds smaller positions in railroads Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) and Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP). The new share purchases came as Berkshire exercised call options that it acquired earlier this year. Berkshire Hathaway has already informed the SEC that it intends to acquire more than 25% of Burlington Northern in the future."
It went on to talk about how he'd trimmed the positions in NSC and UNP by about 1/2 and that his position in BNI amounts to about 17%.
However, what has struck me in the last 5-7 years about Buffett... yes, he did well when tech bubble burst because he was never in that game... but at about the same time, he was staking out huge positions in physical silver and WFC (among other things)...
Fast forward to 2005 and Buffett unloads entire silver holdings just before a big run in physical PMs...
Still holding big WFC position through credit crunch, etc (and is rumored to be buying more financials now)... I had bought some WFC when Buffett did, but sold it all last year... it has been dead money for almost 2 years now.
Buffett sold part of his PTR last summer well off its 2006/2007 peak and likely contributed to PTR's weakness last summer, but turned out PTR was just catching its breath...
In short, I don't think it pays anymore to "follow" Buffett, rather one should lead him as Buffett seems to be selling low and buying high the last 5-7 years.
PTR is a terrific company with huge potential -- the only oily Chinese company I'd put money into... but it is not worth what the market is charging at the moment, IMO... but that could change as more awareness of peak oil seeps into public minds... at some point, oil will be too valuable and scarce to sell/buy at any price and companies with proven reserves will be rewarded simply for owning them... we're not there yet, but that day is closer than most would think.
Jim
OT: WLD... I was just about to graduate from high school, the shootings at Kent St. had just happened a couple weeks earlier... there was a lot of rioting on college campuses, including where I grew up in Oxford, OH... was a busy, crazy time... but yes, I remember that album well and still have it on vinyl.
Jim
chasky: yeah, a lot of us are old enough (but not too old) to remember Howard... why do you ask?
Jim
Ever done any work with fractal patterns and stock charts?
Me neither...
But I know a guy on another board who always asks that question when people start talking about patterns... I guess fractals are a hobby of his... never knew of them in stock investing prior to that -- only aware of them in math/physics context.
Jim
Tex: check the low of the day (so far)... it dropped to that from 170s in just a few mins.... it was breathtaking... general markets all did the same across the board almost... thinking now it was Turkey's recall of their ambassador... seeing some signs of recovery or that dead cat is still bouncing a bit.
Jim