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I am in your camp. I never wanted that gov money (obama cheese). It adds a ton of red tape just like you pointed out. But I can't say that it was the main reason the PPS suffered last year. It certainly didn't help but let's just agree that many negative factors fed the fire last year.
But this is 2011 and so far, it is looking fantastic for those that loaded the boat at the bottom. At 4 and 5 cents, ERF is still a bargain as double digits aren't far away.
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It isn't just tomorrow and the next day that we are waiting for. Rome wasn't built in a day.
Longs should be focused on CFP... that will be the real pay day. When this thing turns the corner, there is no coming back as the PPS jumps by nickles and dimes. Based on Q3, I'd say we have to wait for Q1-11's 10k to see CFP at the earliest. Q2-11 or Q3-11 are likely to have the best odds for becoming CFP. In the mean time the Q4-10 numbers, due out in March, are going to be the best indicator of how soon the big moment is going to get here.
So what does CFP do for the PPS... I'd guess somewhere over 25 cents for starters... that number only grows as the strength of the company is manifested between now and then. 70 cents ... or over a dollar... these are possible in 2011 but not very realistic. It would take blockbuster news and CFP to push this over the dollar hurdle in this calendar year.
I can't wait for tomorrow to get here too. It is the next step for in very lengthy journey for many of the longs here. Crossing that 200MA is a huge milestone that will be worth celebrating. Many people are here for the ride... and they will make some good money. As ERF's business plan is solid and gaining traction, this ride will be lasting much longer than the techies can see on their charts.
BOL to all, even to Jet fans. (going OT here) As a Pats' fan, I can say Coach B laid an egg yesterday. One that hurts and it will sting for a while. But note well... the PATS will be back at the top next year. Here are the Pats draft picks in this year's draft, 2 ones, 2 in the second round, 2 in the third and 1 in the fourth before the first 100 guys are picked. Bill will build a great team with those picks that will keep the Pats on top for years to come. Plus, I'm looking forward to 2011 baseball where the Sox cruise into the playoffs with 100+ regular season wins. The Yankees will have to work hard for that wild card slot. (The C's & B's have strong playoff potential too). So between New England sports and ERF PPS performance, 2011 is going to be an awesome year. Nice job Jets, you earned it. Neither the Steelers nor the Jets are likely to beat the Packers unless the Bears hurt them in the NFC championship. The Pats would have been a better match up for GB in the Superbowl but the Pats are working on their golf game and tans already.
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That looks like the new 200MA... There has to be something beyond that to shoot for... not to worry... I am sure it will be talked about once we cross the 200MA
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Question for the tech guys.... I asked this earlier and did not get a response. What is the next target after we cross the 200MA at 4.8? Is there a formula or a graphing interpolation that can be figured out? I'd like to see what that next hurdle is before we get started next week b/c I don't doubt that the 4.8 is going to be crushed in the next four trading days.
Penny stock pickers update... someone reminded me that the penny guys spotlighted ERF in Dec of 2008... the next few weeks of the chart say it all... it was too steep to ski but it was a fun ride.
Baltimore Ravens are working on their tans... GB and Atl are playing now... gotta go.
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EXTRA EXTRA... read all about it.
I read the Quality Stocks spread sheet daily. It shows a list of stocks that are actively promoted by many of the "penny stock picking" websites. Friday's report has SEVEN sites promoting/following ERFW.
http://www.qualitystocks.net/newsletter/chart.html
We have been here before. Look on ERFW's chart at the month of June in 2007... I was here for that run. That spike in the chart happened right when 5 penny stock pickers named ERFW as a stock to buy... The price went from 15 cents to $1.15 in six weeks or so.
We could be looking at even larger multiples on this run... that was an 7+ bagger... buying in at or under 4 cents on Tuesday could lead to another 7 or 8 bagger ... or bigger in the next 6 weeks. That is only 32 cents... some say history repeats itself... it may not be six weeks, it may take a little longer or maybe less time but this thing is an undervalued gem and these penny stock pros have been buying in last week and now are about to promote the heck out of it on their websites. Buy hold and sell only if/when it loses its momentum... this one is going to make a huge run.
If you watch Quality Stock's list every night, you will see a pattern of just this... when a 4 or more sites pick the same stock for more than a few days in a row, that stock performs! As a group, these guys aren't wrong that often when they see the certain key indicators coming together just right.
Buy your ticket early on Tuesday... this train is leaving the station. 4.8 cents is the next stop and then we are off to new territory. It won't take long before we find a new 52 week high.
JMHO and BOL to everyone... time to make some $$$.
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The Seahawks are the long shot... I think their time is up.
BOL
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That is a real solid 7 trading days... the 200MA is within reach.
Now can this be supported by news from the front office... are there any penny stock sites that are going to jump on the bandwagon? It doesn't take much to push the price up... there really aren't that many shares in the daily float.
Enjoy the football... I have Pitt, GB, Chic and NE moving on. Pats win the whole thing.
Time for a cold one... cheers
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Hey Tech guys... what happens after we take out the 200MA? Is there another target or formula for the next step?
The 200MA should be crossed next week so I wanted to know what to look for next.
TIA
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Three things are important when talking about last year's slide...
1) the price of oil... seems likely to be moving closer to $100/b but anything over $90/b is great for us.
2) the usage numbers... so what if the price is over $90/b if the companies that use the oil aren't producing. Think of the flow rate as the number of barrels being used times the dollars per barrel. So points one and two have to be strong at the same time.
3) (this one isn't as obvious).... the budgets. These are set up in anticipation of the next year. This is why 2010 was such a crumby year. The oil companies were in their guarded mode late in 2009 when they were creating 2010's budget. The budgets were set lower than usual to make sure that they could meet the targeted earnings for the year. So why did that affect ERF and companies like ERF? New projects were likely limited in 2010 to the only essential projects that would increase the total revenues.
This year, it is my belief that O&G companies will be increasing the budgets as the dollars per barrel looks strong, and the production numbers are likely to increase. The O&Gs can increase their bottom line by using ERF's Energy Broadband (EB) services because the cost of SATCOM is higher (and SATCOM has other issues that gives EB's terrestrial wireless network even more of an advantage). More and more companies are going to switch over from SATCOM to EB's services. My gut says that the smart budgets are going to have a line item for ERF this year. They will start out slow and as the success stories build the companies will continue to phase out as much SATCOM as they can.
One other point about changing over from SATCOM to EB's services... SATCOMs have contracts and the customer isn't likely to change over to EB until that contract expires. Just like you wouldn't switch from AT&T wireless to Verizon until your contract was completed with AT&T. So from the time that EB makes the sale to the time it collects the revenues in long... but as the word gets around about how good the service is and how much it saves, the new industry standard will be obvious. Just look at the number of well head in today's ERF footprint.
One point about the banking industry... the banks that sign on need to make a sizable CAPEX. So it is no surprise at all that the banks did very little with ERF in 2010. The banks save lots of money on the bottom line with ERF's services but they need to invest in a network (one that they own) before they can start saving. It takes 2.5-3.5 years to pay for the system so it is a good investment; but, until the banks "feel" better about their future, we aren't likely to see a bunch of bank contracts come through the door. That day will have to wait until the economy is really healthy again. (good move on management's part to focus on the O&G industry)
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I don't see it on any of the penny stock websites yet... but I am sure it will be there soon enough... the last time we hit 2-3 sites this thing ran north by north east quickly.
Next point- For those that haven't been around long... this stock took a beating last year. In December we really got crushed by the heavy volume of people selling for the tax benefits... well those guys had to wait for 31 days before they could buy back in and we are seeing the pressure on the upside here in January just as was predicted. It should continue not just tomorrow but for a few weeks. This thing is still way undervalued.
It has been said all this week... that once we break .025 that .03 would be close behind... well the chart says it all.
There is money here for all the players. The day-trade boys can come and go and the guys that play for a couple of days in a row based on the technicals can do well ... but the real investors that are willing to wait and let this business plan finally gain some traction are going to make a mint.
Seize the day. This isn't a dress rehearsal. Next point to bust through is .039
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The tighter spread, the more it turns me on.
Glad to see EastCoast is back on topic.
Looking for more and more volume every day.
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Really curious... why do you think the big dogs are sniffing ERF's butt right now?
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Today and tomorrow look like great days to load the boat some more. I just talked to a friend on the phone and told him that he should be in before Friday's close. The way this thing is acting, it could break .025 and then .03 without much warning. Several of you aren't willing to hold over the weekend, so there may be some good shopping for those that want to add.
2 big days to look for... EOY numbers in March and Q1 numbers in May... every contract announced gets us closer to EARNINGS POSITIVE.
2 PRs in January already... the PR pipeline is working again. Looking forward to the next one, even if we have to read between the lines a little.
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READ THE NEWS... what did it say other than they have a second patent coming...
"...in preparation for its introduction into a number of new markets as well as to broaden its application in bank networks..."
Not only do they plan to spice up what they have to offer banks... new divisions of ERF are coming... Medical seems the most obvious... but don't forget about Emergency Response, Education, Agriculture, Military, and there are probably others.
READ THE QUOTE AGAIN... this PR implies more revenues are coming because the pie (the sum of the various markets) is about to get a whole lot bigger. Not just one more market coming... it says a number of new markets. Traction builds more traction and it can carry over from one market to another.
This gets better by the minute. Time for the PR dept. to get the word out.
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Now, I am thinking that we are going to get a strong move here... why? ... because the MMs aren't stirring the pot. Keep an eye on the bid. When the MMs start moving it lower, they are doing the gut check thing. But that hasn't happened just yet so I think they are content for now and that another move is coming.
I don't trust the MMs any more than the next guy... but I have watched them work this for some time now.
Let's see where we are at the end of the week. If the volume fades and the MMs don't mess with us, it will be a really strong sign.
The MMs only make money when there are trades... so if they are willing to let it sit for a while, they might be setting the table for the next run. Like any train leaving the station, you better have a ticket.
BOL
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JC123... welcome back to the big top. It has been a while since I have seen you post. BOL... I hope your boat is full of these ridiculously low priced shares.
EC... another name from months ago... you seem to show up whenever there is activity... so plan on sticking around a while... momentum is building.
Where is Kron? Lost at sea or silently buying all he can?
Frog posted another version of today's PR for the Houston Journal... http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2011/01/11/erf-wireless-unit-looks-to-eagle-ford.html
Thanks again froggy... I miss you man. You still have that goat tied up in your basement?
Resistance at 2.8... let's hope to knock it down early tomorrow.
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Take a mental snap shot of that map showing the well permits... then take a look at the ERF footprint... this gets better and better.
Looking forward to the next 2 days for sure... if the volume gets stronger, the MMs will be more honest.
BUT, I am not looking forward to Friday. Too many are going to be selling before the weekend so its likely to be a great day for picking up some cheap shares.... defining cheap is not easy... so I am not going to try to guess where we close on Friday... I am going to look all the way to Monday... that is when I expect to see the next big move here (unless there is more news; more news this week is asking a lot).
Cheers to the longs. The tide has turned and now it is our time to make up some lost ground.
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See that 2 cents... that is the MMs stirring the pot to see if the weak are going to panic... not fall for it people. The MMs are going to load their own pockets with cheap shares and then drive the price up to unload them.
Hold your ground men.
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Connect the dots... it's a pun here.
Check out this map. Every red dot in the shaded area is a potential revenue stream. Building a network over a concentration of red dots like Eagle Ford shows here is a no brainer.
http://erfwireless.com/oil_gas_map_big.html
Looking forward to busting out over 3 cents. At these prices, it isn't hard to imagine a 10x this year.
The new network is connecting a lot of dots.
Lots and lots of potential.
Catch y'all tomorrow.
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More on the Eagle Ford region... http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/7358381.html
The Frog posted this on the Y board... he is great at locating articles ... thanks, frog.
Point is, ERF isn't the only one investing in the region. It appears to be some sort of "Eagle Ford rush" going on. Looks like there will be several customers that could work off the same network.
More potential for us... it keeps building.
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Question about the unnamed Multi-$B customer came up again over on the Y board.
Many people don't understand why the mystery company's name isn't in the PR. So here is a crack at an answer.
First, what benefit is it for the Company X to be named in the PR? It isn't going to affect their stock price. Sure, it would help ERF's stock price but Company X wants a service, not publicity. Do the investors of company X want to read that they just committed to a multi million dollar expense... of course not, they only want to talk about top and bottom line numbers... earnings is the key, not expenses.
The O&G industry is full of smoke and mirrors... no one wants to lead a parade or be in a spot light. They prefer to keep a low profile and let the numbers do the talking. I have done many jobs with vendors where I instructed them not to talk about my project with anyone else. Similarly, company X doesn't want any of their competition to get a read on their success stories in the field or to find out what technology is giving them an edge. (now I can also tell you that vendors aren't the best at keeping secrets).
So is the missing name on today's PR unusual or necessary? No it isn't unusual and Company X may have made it a requirement in the contract that only their PR department could release info about their partnership with ERF, if the time comes.
So if company X wants to write checks but doesn't want to be named, I am all for it. Anything to increase ERF's bottom line is fine by me.
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I like to try to read between the lines on ERF's PRs. They have a history of putting out fluff... today is no exception.
What is missing? The name of the mutli-B customer... someone on the Y-board mentioned Exxon and Apache last week... I do know of a white paper that ERF and Apache wrote up over a year ago... so who is the 800 pound gorilla that wants to do business with us? It really doesn't matter. Oil is $90/b and the gorilla can start writing checks payable to "Energy Broadband".
As a former production engineer in the O&G industry, what is key here is that ERF made it onto the "approved vendor" list of one of the major players... that means that ERF will likely be approved in other major companies.
The new network will be complete by mid 2011... that means they knew about this well in advance and have the engineering work already done. If they are smart they will have given us a longer time line than needed... so what? THE NEW REVENUE STREAM KICKS IN by mid year or sooner.
Check out the little hint about the 4th Q... " ...the strong growth we experienced in our monthly oil and gas revenue in December".
What does it all mean? It means ERF is adding more and more to its top line while its over head doesn't appear to be increasing... so the bottom line is getting better and better... ERF must be closing the gap and should be turning CFP soon.
If this thing turns CFP, we are going to make lots of money here.
So far, nice movement today but I won't trust the MMs until the volume gets to be stronger.
The PR pipeline is open... let's hope it keeps flowing.
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I look at the spread as a percentage of the bid. So if the MMs say the bid is .018 and the ask is .024 ... that's 33% ... way too big in my book.
The MMs make the difference between the two. I know of a bid in there at 19.5 for most of the day. The bidder was going nuts because the bid on the screen read .018 most of the time his bid was in... I couldn't explain it to him. Told him to roll with it.
He was even more upset when he didn't get any action even when shares sold below .018... his .0195 did finally go late in the day. I told him that this is the way the MMs work and unless there is really good volume, they manipulate the heck out of the system.
High volume ----> tighter spread ... It's best for everyone.
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This is the MMs making money when the volume dries up... they stir the pot and prey on the fears of the weak. Great time to be adding again.
I haven't seen a spread like that since I used to visit 42nd street.
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Looking forward to when we trade $250k worth of shares in one day... it's been a long time since...
Better luck tomorrow.
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MBD has the right idea... hours ago, he said he was going back to bed. Today has been very disappointing.
The spread is too wide. Without some sort of MM manipulation, we won't be moving up or down today.
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Volume isn't there... it won't be long before we are under 2 again. How much interest is there in this little company? Not enough without more headlines... headlines with real numbers in them.
The PR pipeline has to start flowing again, like the old days. I can't believe we are 10 days into this year and we have nothing from the front office.
Once a month PRs won't cut it.
Keep your eye on the bid. You will see how the MMs play their games today.
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We need to see some more high volume days to keep the MMs honest. If the volume slows, they will drop the bid and start this thing tumbling back to where we were last week.
If CFP comes this year, we hit 30 plus cents... that is going to be a nice return for many of us here.
Looking forward to the EOY report in March. I want to see that the gap is closing.
More revenues is all we can ask for.
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3 cents is so close I can taste it... just like that first cocktail of the weekend... it's coming on fast.
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ERF is all about overlapping vertical markets...
Build a network in the sticks and it can work if you have any combination of the following:
O&G activity
Residents
Hospitals
Schools
Banks
Emergency Response teams
Agriculture
O&G is the key and that is why they have been building such a huge networked area over Texas and the surrounding states.
If this company turns CFP and can create earnings big enough to fund a marketing campaign and a sales team in all of these industries, there will be some serious money in it for the longs.
GL
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The O&G division started back in mid 2008. The primary industry was banking before the focus changed to O&G. There are several other industries that could be targeted but all hands are on deck for the O&G division.
With oil prices approaching $100/b, the O&G companies will start spending money hand over fist... now is the time that they would be willing to try out some new technology; so I am looking for some new O&G contracts this year.
Slow start today...
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Resistance at 3.34 cents... so pushing over the 3 mark shouldn't be hard.
Look for the most volume between 10 and 2 today... unless we hit 5M shares or more by 2, the afternoon will likely dry up or there will be a pull back.
Put your bait on a sharp hook and set it up at the right level... our fishing hole should be busy today.
MBD- I have been here for 3 years. I know better than most the importance of a meaty PR and a fluff PR (one has revenues in it, the other has none). We usually lose ground on fluff PRs. Look at the history... you will see. CFP is the key here and the only way that happens is to increase the top line by about $7M/year. If we get a contract or two that spell it out, we are going to hit the twenties quickly.
As for someones comment about insider buying, there has been only one in the last 18 months. All the other shares you are looking at are a part of the compensation plan.
BOL today... I am not selling one share today. If others hold tight too, there could be some real movement north.
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It's still chump change... the institutional buys are in your head.
Great show but why? Many of us have be saying this stock is under valued... so why now?
Tomorrow will be a great test... let's see how much the MMs stir the pot.
We need some "real" news to take advantage of the momentum. If DC puts out some fluff, he will send the PPS south.
MBD- if you think that ERF is the only player in the O&G field, you haven't done your DD.
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Lift off has been initiated... but why? I'm not knocking it... my fun meter actually moved today.
As for the competition comment... bull-ony. There is plenty of competition out there... SATCOMs and land lines, even wireless options. The question is, can ERF offer a better quality service for less.... I sure hope so.
2 cents would make my day. Congrats to the scavengers that were bold enough to buy recently.
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Looking forward to something happening... this has been like watch the paint dry on the wall and watching it fade. The fun meter is bottomed out at zero.
One good revenue producing contract and this thing trades 10 or maybe even 15 million shares in a day... That would give me a chubby.
Safety is off and the trigger finger is ready but man is this boring.
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Here is the play...
CFP is a real possibility and if it happens the PPS could jump to 25 or maybe 35 cents quickly... so, have your finger on the trigger to grab some more, if and when a PR comes out with real numbers in it that makes CFP an inevitability.
At the same time, be ready to dump shares if it looks like the dilution is going to continue without a serious increase in revenues.
The hardest part will be to read between the lines of a "fluff" PR. If a PR comes out without hard numbers, the company's fate won't be as obvious.
I suspect we will see low volume and very little movement until the next PR. At the rate the PRs were flowing in 2010, we might have to wait a while. I don't see too many more shares being sold lower than today's prices unless bad news comes out... or no news at all.
Hold now. Buy on good news if it has the right dollar signs included. Ride the wave north and make some money. But as most of us here agree, it will require patience; it isn't the ride that will take long. The patience is needed for the waiting game before a good PR comes along.
(Tangent to make a point) A good sniper knows that the stalk is a long process that is followed by a longer period of waiting still, being too cold or too hot, feeling hungry and tired... with the finger on the trigger, you have to keep your eye on the target and never let your attention waiver from the task at hand. One shot is all you get.
It may turn out that the quick trigger finger makes a killing here.
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Good riddance to 2010 and welcome to 2011.
BOL to the ERF longs that have survived.
Have a happy.
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Words like "definitely" should be edited from posts... the only thing I know is that I am gonna die.
CFP isn't that likely in Q4 as DC hinted at last spring. It's too big a jump in revenues from the third quarter. Could it happen in Q1-11? I sure hope so. But realistically, I am just hoping to see it in the next 2-3 quarters because I see a PPS of at least 25 cents at that point (assuming that the market isn't saturated with copy cat competition). If the market penetration is low and the company turns CFP and it looks like we could grab a good part of the pie, then BOOM... we are off to the moon.
But my concerns are what happens between now and then... unless they find the dollar sign on their keyboard when typing up the next few PRs, what's the point? We need to see some top line numbers, hopefully in the form of a reoccurring contract, or two, or three. Traction and bigger revenues are the keys to a fantastic year.
2010 was meant to be our year....well, it sucked... so we might as well figure 2011 is going to make up for it.
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I could use a good run. I'd make a bunch if it were to go back to 10 cents. Think we could hit that in Q1?
I don't see any problem with a big jump after we see good EOY numbers but I can't figure a big jump is coming before that on just plain news unless it has some top line numbers that signal CFP is coming on fast.
I hope DC canceled all the vacation requests until this stock is trading at reasonable levels.
CFP or bust in 2011!
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I have waited this long... what is another quarter?
Check out the oil prices... already over $91/b.
Odds of a PR before the New Year? ... about zero. So I am hoping to see one in January. The PPS has to hold over a penny from now until Jan. 1 or we will have an even tougher time with a recovery. We need to get one good PR per month (to keep the PPS above a penny) until the EOY numbers come out; then we will see where we are in real top and bottom line numbers.
I took advantage of the PPS movement. Sold and bought back in with the same money to average down without adding more to the cost. I am done with that game. I am back in my holding mode.
Odds of a great year in 2011? Who knows but if we get a good run, a 6 figure profit won't be out of the question.
HoHoHO
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