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This is not a good reference as i have bantered with you for years about this…
Apple never traded on the OTC with penny stocks. Apple was never in a federally illegal/quasi-legal sector. I get where your coming from a company standpoint but there is many more hurdles imo
LCK
Hard lesson to learn dude, bummer
Trulieve is a great company, the headwinds are just incredible at this point IMO . All the best, hope you can hang in until something shifts
LCK
Its the psychology of a cheerleader, understandable. When a sports team is getting blown out and their record is bad the pom poms still come out with the hoorahs! Its all good….
I prefer the scout in the bleachers, assessing the whole situation, every nuance of the player, future prospect etc than making the best decision with all the information gathered.
On that note, was this a close of a lower low?
LCK
We are really 1 capitulation event away from it. Haven't really seen that yet, its been a slow unwinding of positions in a risk off environment
LCK
Rounded top, lower lows, hawkish FED….I still stand by the “return to the mean” thesis.
LCK
Nice, risk off….smart move
LCK
This is great Jim, thanks for posting. Beautiful explanation…..
LCK
Charts tell the sentiment of the overall market and can help with entries/exits.
So if you liked Trulieve 5 years ago and that was your time horizon, well you would be up 47.56% . I guess that’s ok… I look for bigger gains beings your 47% would have been eaten alive by inflation.
So, how about an entry on the capitulation of 2020 when the chart was oversold. Entry at 5-7$…..then you watch the money flowing in, positive news and yes…the chart clearly showed sentiment was reaching euphoria. When it rode oversold for weeks it was over 50$ screaming it was too heavy. Well that was an 800-1000% gain within 1 year depending on how good your timing was. I remember a post from the board perma bull Ranger Pete saying “it was looking frothy” at that price.
That was during a time of QE and low rates…..now everyone has a hangover and imo is slightly delusional on the macro environment we are in. What needs to be done to curb inflation will most likely be not good for the market.
My thesis is, even with great news in the sector that the moves will be short lived. This has nothing to do with Trulieve but the macro allocation of capital. I’m not sure my time horizon lines up with my macro thesis especially when I don’t think the pain is over. I guess we are all placing our bets…
LCK
I’m confused, which is it with this dude?
HoldHigh
Wednesday, February 03, 2021 4:05:42 PM
IMO we will see TCNNF uplist to NASDAQ or NYSE by mid year. I think the senate will move pretty quickly to advance mj laws. And since TCNNF is already positioning themselves to uplist, I think we'll see it happen pretty quickly
His TA is some silly guy in a suit, that he doesn’t know, waiting him to sign some paper and then hope people invest in it….on the same board with penny stocks
I will stick with bollinger bands for now
LCK
That’s to long for me …haha
LCK
Oh I forgot to mention, I use the Heikin Ashi candles on the weekly (longer time frames) and when that is plugged in along side the CMF it tells a much different story. I like those candles and that layout because I feel it quiets the noise for spotting a trend change….the current reading on the CMF is in the basement with HAshi….
Hope that helps
LCK
I totally agree that the bad news has been priced in so when you mentioned macro…well that is my thinking. I think macro has more downside, perhaps a “summer of pain” as some are saying. Watch tomorrows CPI numbers, above 8.2 we are in for a doozy…a 7 handle would prob ease investor sentiment and maybe some positive movement.
I see it like this, everyone is cautious. How much capital are investors going to let loose in this environment? If TCNNF is building a base here (its very possible) how quickly will those positions be taken off the table if we start a downside move? My stops are way tighter than ever before and thats with everything. We will see….love your perspective, keep up the great TA
LCK
Well, what’s your read? The bollis are pinching and we wicked to the bottom today. I noticed the MACD rolling over and looks like the CCI will break 100. I’m not feeling so optimistic…..If I was going to place a bet, all the indicators are telling me the pinch will be a downside break. I’m just gonna watch from the sidelines, I’m actually deep in the rabbit hole of the Bitcoin chart at the moment. Anyhow, curious how you see it.
All the best
LCK
Hey man, with the TCNNF chart is this what it considered a “running flat”? I’m not well versed in Elliot Waves but always curious…
Hope all is well
LCK
Thanks for the props…
As far as the SA article, I take all that with a grain of salt.The chart gives me enough facts, that said …that dude has been writing for SA for years and always quite bearish if I remember correctly. He has a valid point….remember I’m a macro guy and take everything into account. Ranger Pete would probably be better at dissecting this guys points, but opinion might be biased.
200 grand? I dunno, isn’t that chump change for her? This is a question, not a statement…..I mean if I read into it, it just seems like throwing a bone to show she has conviction. Throw a milly at it, that’s a statement. This is all speculation on my behalf, I’m still bullish Trulieve just not the stock on the OTC during quantitative tightening, but I started this conversation last summer…..
No matter all these articles, politics, yada yada it’s still in a clear macro downtrend. If we get a can of woop ass related to rate raises with the Fed, recession/risk off atmosphere well… you know “my opinion” where it’s going.
Not financial advice, all my opinion. Now surfing advice…I have tons of that :)
LCK
Well, it’s a good practice to listen to the bull/bear case imo. It might help you with this in the future….
Current price $14 (comfortably)
marathon man
Sunday, January 30, 2022 11:53:58 AM
Post# of 15076
Lol@ Locksmiths post. Comfortably in the teens? Please, this stock is about to pop.
No catalyst? How about Perlmuters new Safe Banking bill? I see you conveniently left that one out. See you at 23.50 soon.
LCK
Looks like a textbook blow off top to me…..
LCK
It’s been a year, price is 14$….Hope this guy did his own research.
HoldHigh
Sunday, May 23, 2021 8:26:12 AM
Re: $5.95akadawson-m post# 12021
Post# of 15035 Go
Patience is the key. There are a number of positive things occurring with TCNNF. News is key. Legislation is key. So while TCNNF is building out their hubs, legislation is getting closer. That means big money is coming, you just have to have the patience to wait it out. $100 by this time next year. We can blame the drop from $50 to $40 on any number of things, but if you're long term all of it is irrelevant. There are no negative signs (profitability is great and they are executing their plan). Just my thought.
HoldHigh
Tuesday, June 29, 2021 10:45:22 AM
Post# of 15032
We're headed higher after weeks of no movement. I see 40's very soon
HoldHigh
Friday, June 04, 2021 7:58:54 PM
Post# of 15022
Headed to the 40's next week.
HoldHigh
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 5:21:45 PM
Post# of 15021
So, my question is, did any of the charts show a price of $24 and did they show an up $1.15 today ? Where do the charts show the stock going ? My experience is that they are not predictive with this stock
LCK
I know, it’s a tough call. If we weren’t in a bear cycle, downtrend I would stay in the trade longer as it would favor an upside break. I’m watching declining volume on higher lows and per my last post it can’t get over 15$ and stay there. Let’s see…do you have your bollis set on 10,2?
With macro headwinds and these little “bear market bounces” throughout the stock market has me leaning towards we see that 8-10$ range you had mentioned before reversal. The Fed is far away from relaxing at the moment so it’s continue risk off as I see it.
All the best, let’s keep checking in!
LCK
Looking like a bear flag on the daily?
LCK
Hey man, thanks for the kind words….I still work for a living to be clear, not a full time day trader or anything. It helps that I really do love my job….That said I use charts for entries/exits, swing trades etc. the stories can be intoxicating around our investments when the chart can clearly be telling us something opposite. It’s hard to not let our emotions get the best of us…
Honestly I just taught myself over the years, listened to people smarter than me and learned how to observe my rational and irrational thinking.
I pay attention to the RSI, volume, and trend lines and moving averages. You could google them and probably spend the next 18 months just on those. I did “mock trades” where I just noted if I would have bought or sold at the right time. The Heikin Ashi candle on a WEEKLY chart are pretty clear cut to see a trend change….and 1 other thing, it was hard to make a mistake in 2020 when everything was going straight up and the same goes for now. It’s super risky as the bear is upon us. Look at TCNNF, fantastic company with great numbers but I’m not fighting the bear
Hope that helps a bit, I’m no financial advisor, guru chart reader, just a surfer, dude…lol (that really is a great movie)
LCK
Tell yourself whatever story you want, it makes no difference to me.
The chart over the last 2 years shows a classic blow off top, now a return to the mean. Narrative follows price imo, not the other way around.
Not flexin but I was buying at 7, 10, 19….selling at 25 (the 7s) than at 50, 40, and by the time we got to the high 20s i was completely out. All because of charts, I have human emotions just like everyone else and really have to discipline myself around the narratives. Im on high alert on the OTC where the penny stocks are….Boy did I get crushed on “a narrative” in 2012. Woke up on a Monday and my acct was zero, grey sheets and shut down. I learned how to read charts….
Trulieve will have its day, not sure when that is but the company is amazing. I should have sold more Jushi, still learning….
LCK
I agree with you on the support which is still in tact, i wanted a break to the upside with more conviction as previous moves have. Its getting hammered back down off that high 14 level after several attempts. Its in a range now and my guess is its going to break to the down side. I could be totally wrong but I like fractals and charts, in case you didnt know…lol. There is resemblance to an attempt of a break out mid Dec last year that was getting squashed at the 50dma.
Anyhow, its all just squiggly lines and numbers. No one knows
If it does go lower, wave to me…I will be in the truck next to you :)
LCK
I closed out my trade for a…maybe 2-3% loss….anyhow, its not reacting to the chart the way I would like. All about risk management for me right now.
All the best, keep me posted
LCK
I trade charts not politics
LCK
Wow, they absolutely crushed it. Good for them….
LCK
Yes, thats the “business” which Trulieve is great at. That has nothing to do with the re pricing of valuations in the current economic landscape
LCK
There is a difference from 2 years ago even though the price is the same….
2 years ago….mad speculation, forward momo about reform, stimmy money flowing, low interest rates, larger investors taking a gamble at cannabis stocks
Fast forward to now…less speculation, downward pressure and complete dropping of the ball on reform, no stimmy, looming recesssion, higher borrow rates, larger investors going risk off on cannabis stocks
Trulieve still doing a banging job but the environment has completely changed.
LCK
I agree, imo buyers are stepping in looking at those wicks. I like the “hook” I see on the indicators, macd, stoch, rsi. More times than not it’s followed by a move up, need to see some follow through on Monday. Probably need the weekend for investors to lick their wounds after this week, wow it was messy…lol
All the best
LCK
Once we see a bounce Im eying up the 50 dma as the top zone. A look at the daily shows it has been rejected about 20 times, also can’t hold it as support once it breaks. Let’s see if history repeats…..I grabbed a couple 13s yesterday
For anyone else reading this, this is not financial advice and I’m not long TCNNF. Im swing trading this strictly on techs
Best wishes
LCK
The numbers according to Google
-51% YTD -68% 1 Y return +10% 5 Y return
It will be interesting how it plays out.
LCK
I’m in for some more, don’t think a trend change is anywhere in sight but a bounce will come imo. RSI in the 17s, I couldn’t resist…
Market is getting crushed today
LCK
Yea its a tricky one, trading downtrends is much harder than up trends to say the least
I would like a sharper move north on the fast stoch/rsi and other indicators. Even the candle today is so so. The last 3 swing trades all started with a bullish candle and sharp hockey stick move on the indicators….we will see
More bids in the lower range for me, whatever it is….its still primed for a bounce. Its so oversold and volume has been decent
All the best gents…
LCK
Nice, I did not get filled. Missed it by 25 cents.
Is it time to send it?
LCK
The price was in the 30s…..
HoldHigh
Tuesday, October 05, 2021 7:16:42 PM
Re: marathon man post# 13368
PlusOneCoin Icon
0
Post# of 14912 Go
I don't see that happening. We are headed up from here. Unless we have a broad market correction the stock will continue on an upward trajectory. The 2022 price looks to be substantially higher than the current price. There are too many things happening to hold down the share price.
LCK