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Currently long CCE, DVN, GDP and KR
Bullish options activity today on FCN, GT, NOAH, PBF and MUR. Bearish activity on SDRL and XEC
Gonna start updating this again, I'll try not to get lazy this time :)
SPY 60 min top confirmed
Long AAPL and short SPY
NOV broke last week's high
Those LNG calls nearly doubled in 20 minutes. .23 to .45 since I posted about it.
LNG October 34x calls huge volume. 2nd most active options right now behind BRCM
OAS going crazy. Volume on the October 40x calls too.
CONN missed on earnings, glad those premiums were too high to make me stay away from the calls. Dodged a bullet.
CONN breaking out a bit. Just gained a buck in the last 15 minutes. Earnings in the morning. Bullish activity in the calls.
NAV large put roll over on the January 33's to April 31's. Down on earnings today.
SPY not expecting much more upside before we pullback again. Maybe to 166.15. Larger time frames are broken, bears still have the upper hand.
FDO broke $69 ....
And FDO just confirmed a bearish reversal on the daily. The options really suck though.
FDO what a failed bounce on DG earnings. Still bearish here with room below $69.
My MRO is doing well here. In the gap territory on the daily now from August 6th/7th.
CONN large call position rolled down from October 50x calls to 70x. Earnings are tomorrow morning. Not buying myself as premiums are high. But bullish here.
FDO very bearish finish here just off the lows. Already took profits on my puts earlier this morning, but looks good for a move below $69
Heavy selling on GPS September 40x puts. Over 13k contracts traded in the last 15 minutes. Looking for GPS to stay above $40 throughout expiration to collect premium on these options.
September 67.50's ...just looking for small profits right now.
FDO broke $70
SPY making new lows. I'm still bearish for early September.
Picked up some puts on FDO. Confirmed a top on the weekly, potential bearish reversal on the daily.
SPY downside target to about 161.75 next week and bounce back from there back to about 164.
Bought at .16 and .17. Only got a partial at .16.
$ATVI - Potential 10 bagger!
Link to full email alert:http://hosted-p0.vresp.com/938813/649be41bfc/ARCHIVE
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The video game industry is not a hot sector right now. Gaming publishers such as Activision Blizzard and Electronic Arts (Ticker: EA) still haven't recovered since the '08 market crash. Although Activision has held up much better thanks to its hit franchise Call of Duty.
However, there's an opportunity here with ATVI. Activision typically rallies ahead of a new COD (Call of Duty) release similar to how Apple's stock rallies ahead of their product releases.
They're similar to Apple in another way too. They have a very loyal and strong following. Last year's Modern Warfare 3 video game release was the largest entertainment launch in history. This means all forms of entertainment ..not just games, but movies too. The two previous records were held by Activision as well by their Black Ops and Modern Warfare 2 releases. This COD franchise continues to break records in sales and with not much competition other than from EA it looks like COD will continue on strong.
Here's a three year chart showing the last two releases of Activision's titles Modern Warfare 3 and Black Ops:
Their new title, Black Ops 2, is set to release on November 13th which is in less than two months. On Friday my custom scanner spotted a trader purchasing 10,000+ February 2013 13x calls between .46 and .52 worth around $500,000. This unusual activity on top of the high open interest in the November 13x and January 13x calls is definitely intriguing.
I was originally looking at purchasing the November calls, however after going over the charts some more I think we may see ATVI continue the run after this release instead of selling off like it did with the Modern Warfare 3 release. I also don't think the February calls are needed which was what the 10,000+ contracts were bought on. So, I plan on buying the January 2013 14x calls which closed at .16 on Friday.
The reason I believe we'll see the run continue a little while longer this time is because of the technicals. On the monthly chart ATVI is in a very large wedge starting back in 2006. That wedge is coming to an end and with the Black Ops 2 release coming out in November it could be the catalyst that finally gets Activision out of this slump. The first resistance level is $14.40 from the highs of the MW3 release. But, I believe we can see it run to at least $15 this time which is resistance from December 2007 - January 2008. Depending on if those levels hold or not and how successful Black Ops 2 will be, we could potentially see a run back to the all time highs at $18-$19.
Going into the Black Ops 2 release we will most likely see volatility spike in the options. This trade could be a potential 10 bagger or more over the next few months.
Here's the monthly chart for ATVI which shows this wedge:
Eyeing a potential 10 bagger. I'll be alerting through my free newsletter tomorrow. You can subscribe for free @ optionrunners.com
$RL Trade sees Ralph Lauren being range bound
Yesterday morning one trader sold 2,000 October 155x puts at $4.02 to collect $804,000. At the same that trader purchased 1,000 October 160x puts at $6.66 for $666,000.
It appears to be a trade for range bound action on RL. The goal is for RL to stay at or above $155 by expiration in order to let the 155x puts expire worthless to collect the premium while taking a slight loss on the 160x puts, however still ending up in profit overall.
For example if RL is trading at $156 by expiration the trader would collect the full $4.02 premium on the 150x puts as they would be expiring out of the money. At the same time the 160x puts would be worth $4.00 which means the trader would lose $2.66 of premium on that strike ($6.66 – $4.00 = $2.66). In the end the trader would still collect $1.36 in premium.
However in this situation because the trader purchased twice as many contracts on the 155x puts they would collect $804,000 on the 155x puts and only lose $266,000 on the 160x puts ending up with a profit $538,000.
$DXCM Trader looks for Dexcom to continue run
This morning a trader purchased 2,500 October 15x calls at .65. This is a total investment of $162,500.
Because these are October options it looks like this trader is expecting DXCM to continue its run quickly over the next few weeks.
DXCM is currently trading at $14.90. Key levels to watch for a continued rally are $15.75 from July ’11 and $16.80 from April ’11.
http://www.optionrunners.com/trade-ideas/
$FTR Enormous call volume on Frontier Communications >>
Over 30,000 contracts were traded today on FTR November 5x calls with large blocks being purchased all morning.
The calls were being bought all day long, however the largest blocks were bought just 20 minutes after the open. 10,000 contracts were purchased within about a minute at .18 (44 contracts of these 10,000 were bought at .15). Just under $180,000 of calls were purchased within this minute.
The other 20,000+ contracts were purchased evenly throughout the day, some in large blocks between .20 and .30. Although there is no way of telling, one can assume that the other 20,000 contracts, or a majority of them, were bought by the same trader as the 10,000 block in the morning. Regardless, it is extremely bullish for this name.
http://www.optionrunners.com/trade-ideas/
Just updated my 2012 track record thread with my last closed swing alert on $SCSS:
http://www.optionrunners.com/forum/showthread.php?1146-Premium-Plus-Alerts-track-record-thread