Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
XING - Market cap was 168M end of day yesterday. Cash 549M.
Definitely the most under-valued stocks (ever.)
CCME - RyanW, I agree with you here.
I would suggest that lets focus on CCME's fair value today before going to the analysis paralysis stage. As of today, CCME is still greatly under-valued. It has a TTM PE ratio of 7.18 according to Yahoo Finance, that's very low comparing to its peers such as FMCN and VISN. The stock would be $30 if PE expands to 14.
CCME's monopoly position in intercity bus can last at least a few more years. Beyond that, with CCME's superior management team and cash position, I am sure that CCME could either beat the competitors or find new growth engines within and without the adversing sector.
SHZ - I think it is just a spill over of REE situation to other mining stocks. XING is up significantly today too (22%). So is CHGS (tools for mining.)
I checked SHZ when the whole REE broke out about two weeks ago. It was barely over 1.0 back then. But I passed since it does not have REE connection, what a mistake in hindsight.
YUII - Middle-man?
They buy some breading chickens, those chickens hatch eggs, the eggs become young chickens, they sold the day old young chickens for a profit (a lot more than the breading chicken they bought).
I would not call this process or the company middle-man, I may call them middle-wives, or middle-chickens. Also, this process is as efficient as you can get, unless someone can use a heater rather than breading chickens to hatch the eggs.
Disclosure, No more shares. I sold my small stake early today after the news but before the run up.
"As for the business, "The company purchases baby parent breeding stocks from primary breeder farms, raises them for hatching eggs, and sells live day-old broilers."
So, in essence, another middle-man chinese company. If food prices go up, their breeding stock prices go up, as do their corn input prices. So where is the upside? Just another middle-man waiting to get squeezed IMO. "
SHZ - great trade.
I had the chance to get in at 2.6, but did not. Got some XING instead. Not nearly as a good trade as SHZ.
LTUS - Cliffvb, thanks for a very good analysis of the situation.
By all indications, Ashley is a non-performer on the board, contributing nearly nothing to LTUS: No distinguished research record, no business insight or knowledge, and no financial background and wall street connections.
I have no problem with Ashley's resignation. I do, however, wish that LTUS management can handle the situation a little better. They should have learned the US way by sending the guy a registered mail to demand his resignation officially, rather than the Chinese way of dropping the hints by neglecting Ashley, wishing he would go away quietly.
CCME - up again on big vol.
Very volatile stock.
LTUS -
From the link, goeinvesting article at the time:
"Lotus Pharmaceuticals management takes a step that investors may view as a sign of a commitment to enhance shareholder value..."
It sounded more like an endorsement than a flag of any sort.
"The big Red flag for me was this news ...
http://geoinvesting.com/companies/ltus_lotus_pharmaceuticals/research/research/0025600 "
China Resource stocks
it seems that a few Chinese resource stocks are up big time during the PM:
SHZ - 2.9, up 31%
XING - 1.8, up 19.2%
CDII - up 5%
Shanghai SSE 2984.97, -0.56%.
Less than 2 hours into the session, Shanghai composite is holding very well, considering how the Chinese rate hike rattled US markets today.
HIHO - Highway Holding up 38%,
Real time 2.89. HOD 3.3
Amazing. Major jump for a news of new order at $5m?
CCME - I am adding too.
I did not get any thing in 15.4. The price disappeared as i was typing the order. Got a small partial fill at 15.50.
I had exhausted all my cash to set up positions for CCME/UTA/YHGG and I had to use margins for today's purchase - this is something I normally do not do.
CCME/UTA/TSTC
Beautiful.
It is indeed mesmerizing to watch the price action early this morning.
CCME: Green. buyers (insti, retail) battles the sellers (short + some IBD based momentum players.) The dip to 15.4 was met with strong buys very quickly.
UTA: 5.07, +0.2 or +4.4% In breakout mode. The stock is setup for a run upward. With a PE of less than 4, this stock is a tremendous value. The pure shorts has already lost the battle, it is just a matter of how much lose they could endure.
TSTC - up 8.7% in early morning.
UTA - PM 5.04.
UTA's short interests increased from 237K to 1.5m between 9/15 to 9/30. Those 1.25m shorts took place between $3.8 to $4.5 and are all under water.
First CCME, then UTA. Longs are having fun in this space now.
CCME - Short squeeze is only part of the story. I, for one, bought CCME on its way down, and added on its way up. Although bulk of my purchases were between 9.4 to 7.6, my latest purchases were at 11.4, and 14.88. I think Bradford bought quite a bunch too. Not to mention Joe (although he traded in/out more often.)
CCME was a great at PE 3, and remains a tremendous value today with a PE 7. Now the risk factor are great reduced, there is a high possibility that CCME's PE ratio will expand into 12 to 20 within next few weeks. A rational investors should add at 16 when he sees a good possibility that stock is going to 25 to 45.
"When you see a stock trade up like this day after day, it's not because investors are buying this stock. It's because short sellers are forced to buy this stock. No rational investor piles into a streaking stock like this- the shorts are being bought in, and killed. "
Institutions are moving into Chinese small caps
I had long suspect that over the last 3 weeks. This confirms it.
Realfast95 - Thanks for digging this out.
This is great DD work. Thanks.
CCME - Still on RegSho list as of today.
More importantly, CCME had triggered the RegSho threshold Flag, which means "the security becomes subject to mandatory close-out requirements outlined in the SEC's Regulation SHO."
Monday will be another beautiful day for the LONGS. I will send my condolence to the shorts.
Per NASDAQ.com:
Symbol|Security Name|Market Category|Reg SHO Threshold Flag|Rule 3210|Filler
...
CCME|CHINA MEDIAEXPRESS HOLDINGS IN|Q|Y|N|
CFWFF|CALFRAC WELL SERVICES LTD|u|N|Y|
...
CCME - Great script.
You would suggest to you relate CCME to BIDU - Cramer's favorite.
Here is my revision:
"Jim, I know you like BIDU, People who follow you to BIDU made a lot of money. I was setting out to find the next BIDU and came across this undiscovered company called CCME, China MediaExpress. This company is very much like BIDU, fantastic growth, big four auditor, and a lock in its niche of Chinese advertising market. The most beautiful thing is that the company currently has a P/E of 6 at today's closing price, up from 3 just two weeks ago. The stock's already doubled, but with $150 million in cash, no debt, strong growth, Hank Greenberg taking a huge stake and a ridiculous valuation, do you think the stock can hit $99.00, like BIDU today? Thanks. "
CCME EPS score
Are we sure of the EPS score of 76? Can anyone verify?
I would guess that CCME's EPS rating is pretty high. Here is a IBD discussion of EPS rating:
"The EPS Rating shows a company's profitability, stressing recent results over longer-term history. IBD derives this rating by measuring a company's earnings growth in the two most recent quarters and comparing those gains against year-earlier results."
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/536292/201006032343/EPS-RS-Ratings-Tell-Much-About-Stocks.aspx
In another article:
"It[IBD Score] combines all of IBD's proprietary Ratings into one easy-to-use gauge. They include: EPS Rating, Relative Price Strength Rating, SMR (Sales + Margin + Return On Equity) Rating and Accumulation/Distribution Rating.
The Composite puts special emphasis on the EPS and RS Ratings. It also takes into account the stock's industry-group strength and how far the stock has retreated from its 52-week high — the less, the better. These results are compared with those of all other companies and ranked accordingly.
The Ratings run from 1 to 99, with 99 being the best. A 90 rating means that the stock has outperformed 90% of all other companies in IBD's database in terms of its Composite Rating."
Nope - You have to wait for Saturday/IBD list first, Monday is next to Saturday. There is no Sunday for the shorts to pray this time.
"Is it Monday yet ? Today's just a warm-up."
CCME - Fat fingered earlier this morning and got another 2K shares at an average price of 14.88.
I made a mistake this morning. I was set up a GTC order for the shares I added two days ago. Instead of SELL, I mistakenly put in a BUY order with a limit price of $25. Thanks god that Schwab converted it into a market order, otherwise I would be $20K in red immediately on this trade and have to wait for 2-3 weeks for it to break even.
I know that I shouldn't drink coffee and trade with one-click at the same time, but on the other hand, I am actually happy with this trade. Now I need to set up another GTC SELL order, should I put the limited price at $25, or $35?
OT - China has a lot of "friends" in congress.
China is a hot topic for the upcoming election. A lot of candidates are displaying Chinese flags in their political commercials. Last week alone, there were at least commercials from 27 candidates of both Republican and Democratic parties featuring Chinese flags, Chinese dragons, Chinese workers, and anything China.
According to those commercials, China has most friends in US congress, easily surpassing Israel and Britain. In fact, almost everyone's opponent is a friend of China.
It is my prediction that the upcoming US congress will be 100% "China-Friendly": since every candidates' opponent is a friend of China, the next congress will only be staffed with men and women who are China friendly.
CCME - So your point is ...?
"The Lins are effectively selling a position in a growing company at 3.8x forward eps for what??"
You calculation, while valid, is purely from the perspective of an retail investor than a successful entrepreneur. Lins helped create company form almost nothing, and their return in CCME is already in the order of 100x if not more. Since they are out of daily management from CCME, they will need some new hobbies. Their new hobby could be a sport team and a yacht, where return on investment does not even come to the calculation. Or they may be inching for a new start, as hinted by Fernando. The new investment would have the potential of reaping 10x or 100x returns, but more importantly, they get the bragging rights to other fellow successful entrepreneurs.
I managed to grab more at 11.37. Fun.
Now see how the shorts react. Today is Regsho day 13.
NEP - 7.71.
Among all the Chinese stocks participating the recent rally, NEP's price action is probably most impressive. It is not as explosive as BORN and not as anticipated as CCME. But lets not forget that for much of the last six month, NEP was mentioned as THE poster boy of accounting deficiencies.
When the trading assumed, I honestly thought NEP had small but realistic chance of dropping below 2 due to flash crash.
KNDI: This is indeed a major milestone for the company.
Among the three partners: KNDI (Nasdaq traded, electric car manufacturer), Tianneng is a HK traded battery company, Bada is a subsidiary of State Grid Power, which manages the power grid for whole China.
Tianneng's 1H10 revenue is RMB$1.7B (growth rate 74%), with a profit of RMB$300m. Tianneng successfully organized the Summit Forum of China Electric Vehicle Development. Tianneng's market cap is $3.4B (HK dollar?)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=0819.HK
----
On September 28, 2010, Kandi Technologies, Corp. (the "Company") entered into a joint venture agreement (the "Agreement") with Tianneng Power International, Ltd., a battery manufacturer ("Tianneng"), and Jinhua Bada Group, a subsidiary of State Grid Power Corporation, China's largest power company ("Bada Group"), in order to create an electric vehicle battery rental and replacement services company, which will provide battery changing stations for the Company's electric vehicle purchasers. The Company will own 30% of the new company; Tinneng will own 30%, and Bada Group will own 40%.
Prior to the date of the Agreement, there were no material relationships between the Company or any of its affiliates and Tianneng and Bada Group.
Stock prediction:
Normally, for Chinese stocks, it is easy to predict two year movement than 2 weeks.
At least I know Chinese stocks are going up in two years, but not sure they are up or down in two weeks.
But this rally will last longer than 2 weeks.
CCME - agreed.
I have cancelled the rest of GTC at 11.60 (which got a partial fill yesterday of 400 shares.)
I am holding firm while enjoying the ride.
CCME - 12.07 Real time.
Phase 1 in progress -> go to $15 and IBD.
"Here are what I see over the next few weeks:
Phase 1: PPS goes to $15. A small short covering + on going share buy back + some fund buying + continuing retail interests over next two weeks are the catalysts for the stock to go to $15.
Phase 2: IBD chart. When CCME's PPS goes over $15, it is likely to go to IBD chart. Couple with the upcoming earning, we will see huge interests from retail and institutional investors.
Phase 3: MOASS: mother of all short squeeze. CCME will be traded at 25 to 30 before we know it.
Among all the Chinese stocks, CCME is the one with most likely BORN like explosions.
CCME- Short Interest.
Love the fact that CCME's short is up while PPS is up big time.
One thing is for sure. All shorts have to buy back at some point of time. Let me do the math for the shorts: 4.44 m shorts as of 9/30 = 50% of the float. Together with the buy back (30% of the float), CCME has a huge, growing investor base.
Here are what I see over the next few weeks:
Phase 1: PPS goes to $15. A small short covering + on going share buy back + some fund buying + continuing retail interests over next two weeks are the catalysts for the stock to go to $15.
Phase 2: IBD chart. When CCME's PPS goes over $15, it is likely to go to IBD chart. Couple with the upcoming earning, we will see huge interests from retail and institutional investors.
Phase 3: MOASS: mother of all short squeeze. CCME will be traded at 25 to 30 before we know it.
Among all the Chinese stocks, CCME is the one with most likely BORN like explosions.
I added some BSPM today (5K). I will add more if needed.
CCME- Short Interest.
That's great news. Love the fact that CCME's short is up while PPS is up big time.
One thing is for sure. All shorts have to buy back at some point of time. Let me do the math for the shorts: 4.44 m shorts as of 9/30 = 50% of the float. Together with the buy back (30%) of the float, CCME has a huge, growing investor base.
Here are what I see over the next few weeks:
Phase 1: PPS goes to $15. A small short covering + on going share buy back + some fund buying + continuing retail interests over next two weeks are the catalysts for the stock to go to $15.
Phase 2: IBD chart. When CCME's PPS goes over $15, it is likely to go to IBD chart. Couple with the upcoming earning, we will see huge interests from retail and institutional investors.
Phase 3: MOASS: mother of all short squeeze. CCME will be traded at 25 to 30 before we know it.
Among all the Chinese stocks, CCME is the one with most likely BORN like explosions.
CCME -
Just to illustrate that how far the things changed over the last few weeks:
One of my GTC sell orders, CCME at 11.60, got a partial fill of 400 shares this morning.
I acquired those shares below $8 about 3 weeks ago before the share buyback program. My sell order was set up to lock my shares from short sellers. At the time, the short was running rampant. They were predicting confidently that market would melt down, CCME would go to $3, and even $1, or maybe pennies.
Even as a long for CCME, I thought 11.60, or roughly 50% above my purchase price, was unreachable in short term.
Suddenly the world changed, market is up, and everyone starts to like CCME's price action.
Its a different world.
HRBN - Buyout proposal.
This is a great play by the CEO. I think there will be more plays like this in the undervalued China Small Caps space.
1) It shows the HRBN is greatly undervalued. Remember, about 30 days ago, HRBN was traded at 16 and change. The CEO probably started the discussion with PE firms at the time.
2) The CEO, with 31% of the company, wins by winning the bid and wins by losing the bid. During the PM, the stock is trading at $25, a 25% premium over yesterday's close. The CEO's net worth has increased over 25% by just announcing the deal.
WATG
CCA, like many other shorts in this space, read everything in the worst possible lights. He is not alone. I start to see many similar messages on this ihub board lately.
CCA stated: "According to the AIC records for Jinzhou Lide, which are included in the OLP research report, Jinzhou Lide was established on April 26, 2010. ...
I'm doubtful that a business that has been operational for 2 months can be worth $15 million."
Obviously CCA have not done, nor does he/she have any inside to merge and acquisition (M&A). It is quite normal for a M&A transaction to take multiple steps. When a company acquires part of other company, it is almost mandatory as part of the process to register a new/interim company in order to separate the assets. As indicated in Roth's note, Jinzhou Lide is a step in the transaction, not THE whole transaction.
Register capital is another misleading argument. When you acquire a company, you buy the potential earning power, not the "registered" capital. Registered capital is mostly counting the cash. Although you can add equipment and plants into the mix (after discount and a lengthy review process,) you can never count the soft assets such as distribution network and customers as "registered capital". Unless the company to be acquired is in bankruptcy court, you will have to pay a good multiple over the the registered capital.
Rato - Are you shorting UTA?
CCME- Joe, welcome back to the rank of longs for CCME.
I have a question here: Can you tell us the rationale that you think the "big money has a plan to destroy the shorts"? It would be great news if true.
I see a BIG battle of longs vs. shorts after buy back announcement. Judging from the fact that shorts are not successful over last two weeks (even with illegal tactics such as naked shorting,) i can see the longs is favored to win the battle.
From the chart below, I can "read" that CCME is being accumulated by all participants (big money, retail investors, and market maker). But I could not see the "big money has a plan" part.
If big money did/does join in, CCME would be in $15 and $20 in a week or two.
Fraud - UTA got attacked from multiple angles. "Crappy" English version of the web site is the main point.
I laughed each time I saw those. I know of many US Fortune 50 companies (public traded) that had worse websites than UTA's Chinese version. Most of those companies' IT budget is multiple times of UTA's total revenue per year. One company has an annual IT budget of over $2B. That's a 2 and 9 zeros, in USD.