is...hopefully making money
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If a short weighs the same as a duck, burn them!!!!!!!!!! j/k
I agree with SuperDrive. I think all opinions should be welcomed and openly debated. Heck, shorts and cynics give us something to talk about on a boring, low volume day. They also, on occasion, stir up useful debate.
I participate on the board for debate, DD, and to stay up on current events. Group think doesn't interest me - so I think we should focus on welcoming diverse opinions. If you think someone is FOS, call out their opinions, not their intentions. I think most of us here are intelligent enough to figure out who is short and who is long :)
The SEC is struggling to remain relevant - I heard one politician call the SEC a toothless old dog sleeping by the fireplace. That said, I would welcome an SEC investigation 100%. Let them investigate the entire sector. They may find some more dirty companies, but those that they deem "clean", which I am wholly confident would include CCME, will leave nothing for the shorts and will encourage more large investors.
Useless? Didn't they just declare a dividend? I think giving money back to shareholders is an excellent use of the C.O.H. As per financing operations, I think we're likely to hear more about expansion into new business lines in early 2011 which will take some money to launch. The main thing to consider is that they have been able to grow their business over 100% YOY without having to spend much money, innexpensively acquiring bus contracts.
I think 2011 will be a pivotal year for financing new opportunities, and they have enough to make some big moves. It could be a very dynamic year and proof to the nay sayers that they can continue on their current trajectory.
The recent activity does seem to allude to excess liquidity being pumped in. If there is a big insider selling (which I am not calming to be a fact) we should be thanking him because it will help the long term performance. So the float grows, we become even more attractive to institutions and the shorts have more shares to short and further tighten the coils for the next move up. I for one would like a larger float so that MS, GS and others can take a larger stake and have more incentive to cover CCME.
Keep in mind that in the end, the manipulators are only likely to accomplish one of two things: 1) steal money from traders and weak retail and get out or 2) lose their shirts. Either way, their shenanigans are not likely to affect sturdy longs for an extended timeframe IMO.
You are not misreading...I actually used the word shenanigans.
Speaking of guidance for 2011, didn't Jacky indicate in the conference call that the 2011 business overview was going to be early December? Anyone have an update regarding the intended PR date?
Volume and price movement were looking great...still plenty of trading left today. Momentum is all on the long's side IMO.
Did I speak too soon? :)
Looks like today might be the first $1 + day in our next leg up. SQUEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZE!
I don't get too hung up on TA at this juncture as CCME has taken on a life of its own that doesn't conform to normal models. The TA can look great or terrible and I think the chances of a big move are essentially the same.
Agreed. It is entertaining to try to get to the bottom of this...all the while knowing that long term it doesn't really matter because we are all going to make a boat load of money on this stock. Like I said yesterday - they have now done everything that I could reasonably hope for their investors. With the continued growth prospects, analyst coverage, etc. this next 12 months will be super for longs IMO.
"We're eventually gonna need a bigger boat!"
Trader, what you aren't considering is when the short term momentum turns south and there are more sellers than buyers. Then the quant can hit cruise control let the price tank and support the downward pressure if buyers begin to step in.
Trader - I can't PM. I think the sellers are:
1. The biggest is the quant shorting and buying back from himself. Takes a loss on that but the loss is overcome by the shares that he accumulates from:
2. Weak retail and
3. The huge number of day traders that love the huge swings of CCME.
All just my opinion. I am not an expert but do enjoy pondering the abnormal and dynamic trading patter of CCME. How else could anyone explain over 1 million shares traded every day for a stock with an 11 million share float?
There are very likely institutions buying up a lot of these excess shares, however that is only part of the activity IMO. To attempt to further answer Traderfan's question about who keeps buying the shares, I believe a lot of the volume is artificial...I'll explain my interpretation -
1. Quant shorts 100 shares at or below bid, perhaps a few times.
2. Retail and traders exit out of fear, stop losses or TA indicators, usually exiting positions larger than 100 shares.
3. Quant absorbs some of the dumped shares by covering some shares at the lower price.
4. Keep this up, selling and buying back from themselves cheaper.
4. Doing this over and over allows them to average down. Then they back the truck up once they feel that it has bottomed out closing out as much of their short position as they can. They still average in this way cheaper than if they just started buying massive quantities.
5. Rinse - repeat.
This only works when the price is the right level that retail and traders will part with their shares relatively easily. Once news comes and buyers overwhelm the system, the system breaks down and the stock runs.
That is what I believe is going on as well. We have a quant that has no problem going very short, running a finely tuned (over the past 12 months) CCME algorithm. The algorithm was very effective in the $8-9 range before IR PRs tipped the balance out of their favor. Their algorithm is running very well now in the $15-17 range, but that is about to change. The increase in volume is the tell that there is about to be another shift upwards. The algorithm can only work so long as there are sufficient "fickle" buyers that can get wacked at the current price level. The news will start sending things higher as soon as the fickle buyers get replaced by the new investors that are pleased with the divvy news.
I think the next wave of buying has clearly begun and we will begin our ascent into the $20s very soon. Once we get there it remains to be seen if the manipulator continues to try to play games at the new base we establish.
All just conjecture of course, but it fits the scenario.
I think it does. Yesterday could have gotten out of control for shorts had whoever was doing the massive number of 100 share dumps not kept a lid on it. With 3.5 million or more short shares outstanding someone had a lot to lose if it would have run up 30% yesterday, which it probably would have if it wasn't being manipulated.
A 30% runup would have been a $16 million loss for the shorts. Why not spend a few million to manipulate the stock down, shake out retail and cover? Best thing for shorts to do is manipulate and force churning through retail shares as a method for covering. Only problem for them is they have 3.5 million shares to get out of, which won't be easy. Especially if some big buyers jump into the mix.
I think today will be day 1 of the inevitable squeeze. Yesterday was nothing more than a massive effort to bring the price down to facilitate covering. Today I think that covering starts on a grand scale. They won't want to get caught with their pants down (again) come Monday if Jacky issues 2011 strategy and guidance.
Time will tell...
That charting software hasn't let us down yet. I'm gonna go with - yes.
Exactly!!!!
If your theory was correct then there has been a huge seller here every day for months. We trade nearly 10% of the float on average every day.
There is no institution with that many shares and there have not been any filings for insiders selling. This is reciprocal manipulation causing a cascade effect by someone with deep pockets. They can only pull it back to the $15's though. Pretty soon they won't be able to drive it below $18, then $20 and so on....or they'll get out of this game altogether and move onto another host.
And what a gift the naked shorting turned out to be. This next goaround will be no different. Another 100-200% runup coming IMO. We've got a long way to go to 18x-20x earnings.
In all honesty, there is probably a massive quant or a highly skilled trader with very deep pockets that has established a great system for manipulating CCME. Regardless of the efforts to drive the price down we have a rock solid base in the 15's when it use to be in the 8's and this divi is an invitation for all of the high class investors that will start joining the party and help us put the next big floor in the mid 20's.
If anyone wants to make a gentlemanly wager with me that CCME will not hit $30 in 2011 I'm game. Just PM me the terms.
CCME is just over 50% of my portfolio and has been since January (Well I traded out and back in briefly when it was in the $9 range to make up some losses). I gave my stop loss a very wide berth. I'm sleeping well at night.
Agree. Fact is that unless you are in a financial position in which you need access to your investment funds in the short term, the setup could not be sweeter.
Our status has been elevated to gravy train with biscuit wheels :) We could be at $30 by the end of December or by the end of 2011. The point is I now believe there is nothing short of world market Armageddon that will stop it from getting there. Let the shorts have their fun in the mud. They don't have a prayer. In fact, today's trading looks like a last ditch effort to drive the price down and setup an unparalleled wave of covering. Instutitions will be picking up on this and sucking up any and all excess trading shares.
Everyone should also keep in mind that today's news setup a whole new wave of short term catalysts. 2011 and the last few weeks of 2010 are going to be fantastic to us.
this should be a roadmap for the better and more profitable Chinese companies out there.
This is the line that I have been waiting to read from analysts and bloggers. CCME is the leader of a new era of refined Chinese small cap growth companies. This divi was exactly what they needed to solidify that title. Again - cruise control. Daily PPS movement is no longer a concern of mine. This stock is going one way long term - UP.
Agree with BURRP - analyst coverage from multiple institutions will be imminent now.
I'm on the same page as you, though my position has been full this entire year. If it does pull back from these levels I will find a creative way to move some other funds around to buy more. I have checked off every box on my list of things that would be required for me to consider this the best place to have a major chunk of my investment money long term.
Okay, I've been griping about a dividend for ages so I feel compelled to say that this is the BEST...COMPANY....EVER. Sure that is a highly subjective statement, but wow - they do everything the shareholders ask. I just hit the mental cruise control button. Appropriate valuation will be here soon IMO. To me that means well over $30.
My on-the-fly math has the dividend somewhere in the ballpark of 2% annual yield based upon current PPS. Is that what everyone else is calculating? That seems like a very fair starting point and a number that they can easily increase over time without significantly impacting operating cashflow.
One thing is for sure, the trading pattern since the 10Q has become very predictable. Up 10% then down 5ish % the next day and a little more each day until it hits the $15s - repeat. I kick myself every time for not getting a larger % of trade shares to make money on this predictability. It just cannot hold gains against the incessant short waves, which have clearly gone naked now.
Those poor dumb bastards will not learn until they have nothing left. Even then they still may not learn their lesson.
Yep, I think they picked the wrong stock. They meant CCME, didn't they :) Come on GS
I think the Star exercise is positive overall. They are continually reaffirming that they like where their money is at, which speaks volumes IMO. As per the extra $10 million, well I guess Jacky can blow that "chump change" on exotic hats or something :)
Aside: FMCN up 7% today. The flight to quality is going the wrong direction :) Sooner or later people will realize what the better bet is.
wtf indeed. The chart is starting to look ugly.
A lot of today is the RINO factor IMO. Down 51%. I agree that CCME needs to take this into consideration. A company has to be attractive to investors to garner higher valuations. If everyone is scared of Chinese companies, through no fault of the CCME, that is still the world we live in and management will need to work within that environment to do what is right for investors.
The love affair that manipulators have with CCME is exhausting. I can't believe how easy it is for these locusts to still be able to drive the price up and down by 10%+ over and over and over... I don't mind volatility, but it would be nice to see a little bit more support to sustain upward price movement despite these manipulator's efforts.
Just don't forget about it and accidentally sell a few weeks/months from now. I did that early this year when it was stalled at $9 - set all my shares on a long standing $15 order and forgot about it. Checked one day a few weeks into the recent rally and saw I was sitting on a boatload of cash. I panicked because it was up 5% the next day but then it pulled back intraday and I got back in at $15.
Talk about almost missing the boat :)
Good news day. I'll gladly take it. This reaffirms that anything related to credibilty will move the stock significantly. This is merely a rating change from a firm that is not very widely known and that everyone already knows looks favorably on CCME. Imagine what coverage from MS or GS would do. MS coverage, if it comes, will be a 15% plus day IMO and may finally allow the contract announcements and other business news to be appropriately and sustainably accounted for in the share price.
Some of the more savvy shorts are definitely covering today feeling that some form of bottom has been set. Heck, they get to cover extraordinarily cheap - lucky bastards.
The stock has had ample time to consolidate now and looks primed for the next big leg up if the right news comes. Today was a good start.
Gunnar,
Great post and make no mistake about it, I love the way that the company runs the business, that is why I am long. I just think they also have an obligation to look out for investors and one thing that they need to contend with is the rediculous love affair that the shorts and manipulators have with this stock. Jacky tried to shake them off with the buyback announcement, but they called his bluff. We are now getting crushed again and a lot of people that remember what holding this stock was like in Q1-Q3 are running for the hills with deja-vu fears.
Sometimes the prudent thing to do is improvise and respond to the current circumstances to avoid unnecssary pain and possible long term damage to the stock. That is what I am asking for. I've been emailing Jacky from time to time as I feel it necessary and I recommend others with sizeable positions do the same. It never hurts to let him know where we stand. This board represents somewhere in the ballpark of 750k shares afterall, maybe more.
We can not, at least I do not expect, for the CGS to act like US companies when they are not.
Why not? Why are your expectations so low? Some Chinese companies are initiating dividend plans and they are being rewarded handsomely for it. CCME can spend the money on a divi and still have plenty left over to run the business. Last time I checked they are not hurting for cash.
And the last time I checked they are trading on an American, not Chinese exchange. Trading on an American excahnge means that you will be valued based upon American exchange principles. The Chinese companies (or any company) that don't realize that will underperform compared to their potential. What possible sense does that make?
I didn't claim to have a list that meet all of those criteria, just many companies that run a very profitable businesses but have stocks with poor valuations. Hopefully you can find some, because there are hundreds out there. Look at the CGS amigos, most of them are trading under 9x earnings. I happen to think that CCME should be distinguished from them as it is a premier company.
I don't understand why so many people take offense to the notion that CCME management should make more effort to do things to garner more respect and trust. Right now, due to the fact that they are a Chinese company they are not trusted. You can sit around and wait until the world's investors start trusting Chinese small caps, or you can ask the management team to do things to demonstrate their legitimacy and earn that credibility on their own. I don't think that is asking too much. Apparently some on this board seem to think that is asking too much from a company that delivers results to a crowd that doesn't seem to care as much about those results as they do validating those results are produced by a trustworthy operation.
Quite frankly it is puzzling to me. Half the battle in life is establishing the correct premise for the decisions that you make.
It is funny to me that a lot of individuals message me stating that it is not management's job to manage a stock, that they are busy running a business. I say hogwash - the primary objective of a publicly held company is to provide maximum return to shareholders. There is no higher objective. Most times the best interests of the company align nicely with that objective. However, when management is tone deaf to what the market is telling them because they feel that running a solid business should be enough to produce a high rate of return, this is what you get. A great company with a stock that can't seem to get and hold the valuation it deserves.
It's like people have fundementals goggles on and ignore all of the other aspects of the market.