I'll look at some of these charts again, but I'm finding the best correlations just with currencies. Mostly I watch FXE and FXA with AGQ.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p30173882135



There isn't any real correlation between silver and ther S&P is there? Rather than currencies?

How do you get a stockchart chart to show up in a post here like you did?

Long term signal still on BUY.

For those who asked about previous signals, before the SELL in Feb., I have these:

BUY 3rd week in Dec. 2011
SELL mid-Dec.
BUY late Nov.
SELL early Nov.
BUY early Oct.
SELL 3rd week Sept.
BUY mid-Aug.
SELL mid-July.
BUY 3rd week June.
SELL early June.
BUY late May.
Some whip in April (Fast sell-buy-sell).
BUY mid March.
SELL 3rd week Feb.
BUY 3rd week Jan.
SELL a few days earlier in Jan.
BUY mid Jan.
SELL late Dec. 2010
BUY mid Nov.
SELL early Nov.

That's as far as I got.

VTish TLB BUY 51.66ish near the end of day yesterday. Nice strong CO toward EOD also. Now gap up. I should just keep track of which gaps I manage to catch.

Been trying to post this all morning: A SELL near the end of day (yesterday), 54.30ish, so I am hoping this gap down holds. SLV has some support at 30.73 (last swing low from 3/14), and it is now gapping below that number.

I'll look at it.

RE: futures, that's fine to avoid gaps but I also don't want to be looking at a computer screen for excessive hours every day. Been there . . . used to trade DAX and other Euro futures and got really . . . let us say, burnt out.

What's a "thin" cloud (as opposed to a "thick" cloud)?

TLB BUY signal yesterday at 53.40. Today just chopping around.

No formula. I've had big gaps go against me sometimes. It happens.

Just watching charts and various signals; they're not always right.

I had a TLB sell signal at 55.60 on Friday 3/16. But then a BUY at 55.65. Same day. Yesterday, with SLV testing its 50 day MA from below (resistance) I shorted AGQ at 57.00ish. That was when the CCI broke the +100 line. Nice to be short with this gap down.

Well, a nice one.

The real question is: Does this combination work consistently?

Trading is tough, you know! ;-0

I like to use the CO for divergences, but I would never trade just off the CO. I need something else, and that "something else" is usually a CCI pattern and/or support and resistance.

You know that if you have a 50% W/L ratio and the winners are slightly larger than the losers, you will make money. You can also make money even if your losers are much larger than your winners, as long as you have a high W/L ratio. More than one way to skin a cat.

If the CO is isn't helping you with 6E then don't use it. I personally would not use the CO on a 24 hour chart, as the low volume hours distort the indicator.

VTish diver-100 line break/GH Wednesday BUY at 53.25.

You're never going to find any method that has 100% winners.

Just to keep track of the signals, though I am taking a break: There was an OPEN HFE BUY Tuesday at 58.14, then a SHAMU sell at 57.95 which allowed you to get the big move down today, Wednesday.

AGQ and SLV failed at their 50 day MAs which I expected, and GLD broke its 200 day MA Tuesday and is now well below it.

Interesting that IWM was down today but AAPL is still going strong up 22 today (that's what my charts say; is that for real?) so the Qs were up today.

AGQ is trying to bounce off its 50 day MA and the DMP is right there to support it as well.

I am still taking a break from the market.

My long term signal is still on BUY, so could still be in TNA. The Qs (or QLD etc) would have been a better choice for a long since AAPL is still on a tear.

Yep they're pretty good. That looks like a 24 hour chart. CO won't work on that because of the low volume in the "off" hours.

You always have such interesting looking charts, M!

Wish I trusted this long-term BUY signal enough to buy TNA instead of just taking my profits off TZA . . . oh well.

I held the long AGQ through this morning's gap down, and am now out and in cash at 61.20. Call it luck or stubborness. Or a good read of the COs on AGQ and GLD.

UUP's bullish diver CO near the close yesterday argued for taking off the AGQ long then, but I held it. Then this morning, GLD and AGQ had decent bullish CO divers so I held on (with an open HFE in GLD on the 30 min and AGQ on the 5 min.) In any event, UUP is stilll strong so the inverse relationship between the USD and PMs is not holding today. So better to be in cash, and take a break from the market.

No, it wasn't "clever" of me to hold the AGQ long inspite of the large drawdown, I was just following the signals. There have been other times when I had a large gap against me, and I took the loss and reversed the trade, in spite of an open HFE . . . because of what the technicals looked like. But on this last one, it was a time to hold the open position.

What would have been "clever" I suppose would have been to anticipate the tests of support MAs on the daily charts and ignore the BUY signal Monday and hold the short until Tuesday when the support MAs were hit. That would have "clever."

The long term signal switched back to BUY yesterday. As IWM looked to hold its 50 day MA, I took my TZA trade off. IWM also has a BUY signal on the daily chart.

On AGQ, I went into Tuesday long, on a BUY signal from Monday at 60. Tuesday opened with a big gap down but a BUY signal (OPEN HFE and a bullish CO), so I held the long. I am still long AGQ. There was a TLB SELL signal Wednesday which I did not take because (1) AGQ and GLD were both holding above prevHi and the upper DMP; and (2) various daily charts looked like they were ready to bounce: AGQ and IWM held their 50 day MAs. SLV also got close to its 50 day MA and bounced off of it. GLD had slightly breached but then held its 200 day MA and bounced off of it. Besides the 200 day MA hold of GLD and the 50 day MA hold of AGQ, I was getting a BUY signal on the daily GLD and AGQ charts.

So again, I held onto the long AGQ and am still long. Something may or may not happen in EURO land today at 1 pm NY time, so I will be watching that.

thanks, but yes.

Based on this long term signal, I have been buying TZA on bounces in the RUT. SO even having some mistaken moves in AGQ, I am hedged. The last BUY signal yesterday in AGQ wasn't a mistake. It was a very good signal. I had a $6.70 win on the short AGQ, so now I will give some back on the long? That's the way it goes with trading. In general, I am bearish on silver and gold given what the daily charts (including currency charts) look like. I mentioned this also that I was expecting a big move up in the USD (which is bearish for PMs).

VTs and decent looking COs on GLD and silver, so back long AGQ at 60.

SELL TLB Thursday, 66.70.

No, it looks like the TLB triggered on the first 30 min bar at 63.84.

The 5 min NERS BUY signal was 63.97. The 30 min chart is forming a TLB BUY signal right now.

"I still think the USD will reverse UP here abouts and I want to be short AGQ when that happens."

Finally the move I was waiting for.

72.95 should have been the SELL. The 5 min NERS chart has triggered the sell.

Trading error to get out so soon. The 5 min NERS chart hasn't even turned down yet.

Out of the long at 70.70 thus reducing the loss from the gap against me. In Cash. I still think the USD will reverse UP here abouts and I want to be short AGQ when that happens.

ouch. BUY 69.50. Yes there is an OPEN HFE SELL signal but as in the past (1) It hasn't triggered; (2) the CO is strong and (3) AGQ is above R3.

TLB SELL 66.88.

Yes, there was a TLB BUY Friday at 66.42.

HI Duma, I tried on the 22nd when jaws said he got in, and I was able to get in. I haven't upgraded Java though I keep getting a message that there is an upgrade ready.

The SELL could have been 67.35 if you used the "CCI Diver/100 line break" method, but I didn't do that.

We ended up with a GH-VT* formation on silver and gold yesterday, so although I didn't like some other aspects of the market, I have to take the trade for the record. Let's say SELL AGQ 66.90. I am watching 2 things here: the HTL that gave the SELL signal should hold, and AGQ should hold below yest high.

Right now GLD is weaker than AGQ so I don't know how this is going to work out.

*A ghost or VT is just a special kind of TLB. A GH-VT is where the Head of the GH is an HFE and the right shoulder forms the rounding after the HFE that is needed for the VT pattern.

I see the light and got out with a 30 cent loss. GLD held above yest high and the COs are very strong on GLD and AGQ. The 5 min NERS chart is very strong and not ready to turn down. So in cash.

When the market doesn't do what you expect it to do, cut your losses and get out. You can always re-enter.

SLV gapped up to its 200 day MA so I am taking the long AGQ off for a 3 point gain at 65.60 and shorting. I'll risk $1 of my profit on this short. So stop is 66.60. There is an open HFE and Resistance at R3, as well as GLD being at R of yest high.

So we will see how this works.