This little piggy cried wee, all the way to the bank!
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Someone holding roughly 750k shares announced in early October they would be selling at the end of the month due to unavoidable obligations. I remember who it was, had to keep those government wolves at bay.
Too bad he couldn't sell into a good EXPU interim financial report, but at least the warning was posted, and some savvies picked up bargain shares today.
Anyone else selling today was being irrational, had rent due, or got caught taking money from mom's cookie jar and had to put it back, or else.
What we still have is: Strong fundamentals, some nice technical signals, and now a nice bounce play in the making... sweet.
Inflammatory nonsense is verboten here. Did you start reloading today, or still out on the sideline?
Appears some people hit stops yesterday and today that were set to go off south of 6 cents.
Rule #1 in OTC/Pink land is take your profits, I have no problem with that. Sold a few shares myself yesterday that I bought many months ago, when we were in the 3s.
Still holding shares, and not worried that the remaining will also eventually bring in very nice profits.
Re: Dilution -- I don't fret much about it with a vibrant fast-growing company like EXPU. The Ricos are not a front, lining their pockets with cash being raised, like so many other pinks. Any new cash is being recorded as shareholder equity and used for purposes of revenue expansion. We now own a share of two new storefronts, and a share of any added profits being generated there.
Sure would be nice to see some updated interim financials though.
MTXX bottom bounce alert...earnings coming after close today, this could soon find itself way oversold...float is now 26% short.
WASHINGTON – Home resales rose far more than expected last month to the highest level in more than two years as buyers scrambled to complete their purchases before a tax credit for first-time owners expires.
The National Association of Realtors says sales rose 9.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million in September, from a downwardly revised pace of 5.1 million in August. Sales had been expected to rise to an annual pace of 5.35 million, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.
The median sales price was $174,900, down 8.5 percent from a year earlier, but the smallest annual drop in 13 months.
By ALAN ZIBEL, AP Real Estate Writer
There is some confusion here about Clear Channel. Clear Channel is the company doing the 4-month billboard campaign for Expert. I am not sure if there is any tie-in with radio advertising, I seem to recall that Expert WAS doing some on-air advertising in addition to their direct-dial campaign, which is designed to notify people about the upcoming time limit on the $8k refund for first-time home buyers.
I do recall reading somewhere that the new billboard is located on the same highway as the Aventura Mall main entrance: people on their way to the mall will see the Expert billboard, and then also see Expert's new storefront inside the Aventura mall.
Next week should bring the big revenue numbers if all goes according to plan. Fasten your seatbelts...
Anyone else notice this was first PR day in quite a while that didn't close in the red due to people selling on the news?
Good omen!
Green close = sweet!
Vant: I sent an inquiry via email to info@expertfinancing.net last Friday after close, have not heard back yet (and probably won't due to Robert's busy schedule)...this is what I asked:
--
"Robert, hope you and the family have a good weekend. If possible, could you find time to read and comment on how these two stories might effect Expert Financing?
http://www.condovultures.com/en/home/3409-starwood-emerges-as-downtown-miamis-condo-market-maker-.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aY.tf4kEIyPk
And also, do you have any plans to develop a working relationship with Starwood?"
--
The story about Starwood is amazing, and likely signals that the bottom of the market has been reached there, while the Bloomberg story about the condo lawsuit is unfortunate and most likely unrelated to our rumored future business partner (but you never know...)
Palm Beach home inventory hits two-year low
October 16, 2009 01:00PM
The Realtors Association of Palm Beach County reported that September's inventory of single-family homes was enough for seven months, the lowest level of unsold houses insce December2007. Condominium inventory shrank in September with 11 months' worth of inventory available, down 80 percent from September 2007's reserve of 57 months. Inventory has been dropping since March, said Craig Fialkowski, a Realtor with Herman Group Real Estate in Palm Beach Gardens, who attributed some of the supply reduction to first-time buyers cashing in on the $8,000 tax credit. [Palm Beach Post]
GM petroheads, a pretty shade of green here this AM.
Agree, market cap is almost freakishly low for a good solid business like this.
38,380,584 o/s X $.07/sh = $2,686,640.80
So what is fair market value of Expert. Figuring out the theoretical buy-out number for a company can be calculated many different ways, the most common is probably some multiple of retained earnings (retained earnings = assets + profits less outstanding debt).
I think a fair "get out quick fire sale" number would be 3x to maybe 5x retained earnings, and that number should be close to if not exceeding $1.5 million by year end (we already held $565k in assets at Q1'09). And it seems Robert expects to double or triple this number again by the end of 2010.
Looks to me like blue south Florida skies ahead...
"Now Hiring!...Must have a Clue" - ROFLMAO
BESE the beest is fightin' back!
BESE the beest is fightin' back!
Time from origination to closing is dependent on which, and how many lenders, an originator sends each loan application.
Note that in addition to putting together willing borrowers and lenders, Expert is also trying their hand at writing loans themselves and then immediately reselling those loans to larger institutions. This is a savvy move IMO, they are making better points on each loan this way.
Generally speaking, on the day a borrower signs the loan app, he locks in a guaranteed rate for 60 or 90 days. It can sometimes take nearly that long to get everything approved and schedule a closing date, and that's retail - commercial can take longer still.
I have no idea what an FHA loan process does to add time to the overall process, have not BTDT. But for a standard 1st mortgage home loan, typical scenario is:
If/when the loan is approved, (edit: some lenders have loan committees that meet only once per month) the paperwork would then go to various attorneys (if borrower is smart) for approval of terms and conditions. When everything looks good to all parties, the lender orders title search, title insurance, and site inspection, and waits for all that to clear.
On new construction projects, at minimum, a phase 1 site survey (hazmats, wetlands, etc) and local zoning and planning approvals are required before money deals are even considered doable.
NOTE: I am not in the financing/lending business, just a private business owner who has gone through this process several times over the years, for both home and commercial loans. YMMV, please correct me if wrong.
Um, have you considered decaf?
The way this works:
1. Origination income = loan app fees, title search & insurance fees, etc. This is not usually big bucks, but (usually) nonrefundable regardless of application outcome.
2. Applicant gets approved and closing is scheduled. (or not, in which case Expert's CreditfixUSA might enter picture, if retail level app is denied)
3. Closing income = CHA-ching!!! Points, closing costs, etc. all coming in.
So the $110 million origination's net profit, for example, is (probably) not going to be substantial, income-statement-wise, until it is closed out and can be put totally on the books.
My 2 cents worth of free opinion:
EXPU shares = no-brainer investment at these levels, anything near .07 is about equal to net income from two well-run storefronts in a VERY down market. We have three stores now, in the heart of the #4 RE market in the country, which is, right now, experiencing a nice healthy rebound.
Either the scale of those doors is way off or Robert is setting up his own office in a closet... <grin>
In all seriousness, looks like a very efficient layout that maximizes available space for his money-maker originators.
I can almost hear the new cash register ringing already...
BESE riding merger rumor wave, pps nearing 200ma.
PDMI nice move finally, too bad I got tired of waiting.
Expert Financing approved FHA lender in SEVEN markets according to the HUD website!
BIRMINGHAM , AL
JACKSONVILLE , FL
MIAMI , FL
ORLANDO , FL
TAMPA , FL
ATLANTA , GA
JACKSON , MS
http://www.hud.gov/ll/code/getaafb.cfm?ins_name=EXPERT+FINANCING+&+INVESTMENTS+INC&mort_id=2839600001&ins_type=2
crazy IVAN on a roll today
Epic, on board @ EXPU and MTXX as well.
EXPU looks 10 months pregnant and about to pop wide open, just needs a wee bit more buying pressure than it has gotten of late, good Sept revenues being posted should git 'er done.
MTXX now way overdue for a short squeeze (25% of the float is short!) but it ought to do OK with or without the squeeze, going into this big of a flu season. Any good news (esp. reaching an agreement with FDA re: the nasal gel) should cause a very nice pop.
Low volume day, calm before the storm? Glad to see shares have accumulated into strong hands. To quote the CEO, this company is a great value at $.07
Cup & handle + golden cross! Chart looking good.
09/30/2009 conference call audio here:
http://www.expertgroupblog.com/audio/expu-conferencecall-sept30.2009.wav
9/30/09 C.C. audio: http://www.expertgroupblog.com/
nice! HOD just before the close
EXPU golden cross soon - seems a good time to grab some cheapies, before great Sept revenue numbers are announced and it pops back into the 9s+.
"Expert Group projects that by year's end we will have our 3rd location open and have a total of 100 originators operating. With 100 originators we conservatively project that we will close 100 loans per month. As I have stated before, Expert Group realizes between $4,000-6,000 in revenue per closed loan. Using the mean figure of $5,000 per loan, we project $5 million dollars in annual revenue when operating with 3 locations and 100 originators."
In 2010, Expert Group plans to add an additional 3 locations (one location every four months). This will bring Expert's total number of originators to 250. Operating at this capacity Expert projects $12.5M in annual revenues.
By mid 2011, Expert plans to operate at full capacity with 400 originators at 9 different locations. When operating with this number of originators Expert Group will realize $20,000,000 in annual revenues.
Robert Rico continued: "We are experiencing tremendous growth and we are growing responsibly. Please note that these estimates do not include jumbo loans and loans from our commercial division. These revenue estimates are purposefully conservative in order to give real investors an idea of the value of our company."
Read the rest of this incredible PR here:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Expert-Group-Originates-iw-636137161.html?x=0&.v=1
Rob and Shirley should re-name the new Bal Harbour store 'Expert Financing, Big Kahuna Branch' in your honor - you now own enough shares to have paid for the thing!
Remember, even though it is our main source of revenue, Expert Financing is about more than people buying homes.
I keep reading ARM resets (adjustable rate mortgages) are going to peak in 2010~2011, and those people will all want out of those ballooning payments. Geitner also wants these switched over to fixed rate instruments as well. Enter Expert Financing. Supposedly, the looming ARM reset debacle is going to dwarf the subprime tangled web, and these people, suddenly in over their heads when their resets hit, will be banging down Expert's doors to get a good fixed rate Refi deal.
.20/sh...$7.5 mil net income? Now, that's some high-caliber forward thinking there, Strider! Possibly well beyond that, if we do make the Miami/Dade #1 lender spot?
Edit: 2% take on $375 million in originations is what that would require. A very easy target, if, scratch that, WHEN we are finally built up to 400 originators.
But the Q3 numbers will be something we can really sink our teeth into in the meantime.
Flashback: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41338611
That said, if/When the Q3 interim financials are published, um, hang on tight, because this steed is gonna FLY hard out of the gate.
We're right where I said price support belonged based on the latest interim financials. Seems people today are simply not believing the PRs put out all last month claiming vastly increased income amounts for the third quarter, or they wouldn't be letting these go so cheap. And if they ARE completely discounting PR claims of increased income, then the last published interim numbers MUST be the primary guide in their buy/sell actions, at least until new Q3 &/or annual audited financials are published.
Basic fuzzy math follows:
Q2 Net Income = $124,021 [projected annually x4 = $496,084]
latest outstanding share count = 38,380,585
projected annual earnings/share = $.0129
P/E at $.066/sh = 5.11
P/E at $.090/sh = 14.33
OK, a fair enough forward P/E range to be trading in for a growing, slightly profitable company.
But whatever happened to looking forward? What will happen to share price when the Q3/Q4 numbers come out showing actual net income at, ehh, say, 3x our Q2 net income - call it $1.5 million projected annual net.
That's .039/share net income (assuming little to no dilution). And if we are still trading in the same P/E range as now, at 5:1 P/E we'd see $.19/share, at 15:1 we'd see $.58/share.
These aren't imaginary numbers, they are (IMO) a reasonably conservative estimate of our forward income, based on the increased number of storefronts and new loan originators.
This could happen as soon as the middle of October, i.e., as soon as the September numbers are posted.
"situating themselves to supersede their projections by being the largest lender in the 4th largest market"...my favorite quote from the call.
Recommend excellent CC notes by birge and/or stoney take rightful place up top, post-it style.
Folks, I believe we may have caught ourselves a rising star of the Greater Miami economy.
ps
EXPU.OB, I like the sound of that too.
4 questions I would like answered tonight:
1. What is the relationship between Expert Group Inc. and Expert Financing and Investments Inc.? Will financial transactions between these entities be noted in Expert Group's interim financials or annual reports?
2. What is the relationship between Expert Group Inc. and Expert Group Title Services Inc.? Will financial transactions between these entities be noted in Expert Group's interim financials or annual reports?
3. What is the relationship between Expert Group Inc. and Expert Credit Fix USA? How is the marketplace responding to the Credit Fix plan?
4. What exactly is the holdup in getting Nevada to correctly report the true number of outstanding shares?
I cannot join, otherwise I'd be asking.
Yahoo's 1-yr projection = $9.00
Now at 0.90 so they'll either do very well, or do a reverse split.
LYSCF +21% ... link back to my notice