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Thanks, you are right, if Geert is ready and willing, next week
is a perfect time to create the perfect storm for CVM longs.
To me, it seems very thing is aligned in the right place and
time! You miss one thing, there are few million shares of
Feb calls open interests which may add fuel to the fire if
TLD is released next week.
Yes, but you will win both cases of TLD or not by next week,
smart move!
Finish my repositioning today, sold out My MAR calls with
a small loss, but bought 750 Feb 55 and 200 Feb 50 calls,
with 1+K Feb calls at cost $50K now. The reason is my belief
Geert should and want to show case MK data if he believes
in MK efficacy for SOC, and two month since data lock is
more than enough time to finish the data analysis and submit
the abstract by Feb 17th, IMO. Do your DD, my plan is to win
big or 100% loss on the $50k cost. Good luck CVM longs!
My opinion is no sure thing at all and just pure guess, as a matter of
fact, wrong most of the times and lucky some of the times. Each CVM longs
has own views of when data comes out and the valuation, as long as making
money, it is all good in my books.
I really like today's action and no Geert tweets, my
confidence of ASCO abstract submission chance goes up
each day without Geert's tweet this week and CVM stock
going up to confirm my belief, good luck CVM longs!
My Feb calls low bids are not hit so far, OK with me,
just leave the low bids there in case shorts play games
for a sharp dip and rebound. Comfortable with my current
positions, so far, very good volume, telling me some
thing hidden is going on, if Geert can keep quiet the
whole week, we may see CVM going up to 28 to 30 by
Friday, IMO.
Well, Geert did tweets yesterday and today, still
CVM is getting good actions with good volume so far,
let's see what happens in the last hour trading
today....
We have to remember CVM is a battleground stock.
AZN's trial is for Recurrent/Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer
which may have very short MOS time, 2 years is more than
enough, IMO.
AZN's failed Phase III Open Label Study of MEDI 4736 With/Without
Tremelimumab Versus Standard of Care (SOC) in Recurrent/Metastatic
Head and Neck Cancer (KESTREL) timeline:
The trial hit the final event on July 6th, results' PR today...
The trial enrolled 823 patients at more than 200 sites
in 23 countries, one primary endpoint, 28 secondary endpoints
and 8 other endpoints....
It is time for Geert to PR the data, IMO.
https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02551159?term=Imfinzi++HNSCC&draw=4&rank=29
The best case is BP buyout for NWBO so the buyer can try
combo trials, if the subgroup has very strong and clean OS
data, FDA's approval is all depend on Richard Pazdur's view,
my experiences is no approval because BP does not want NWBO
to succeed, we better hope MK trial has a clean strong efficacy
so the approval does not rely on any one's view in FDA.
Here is what I see how NWBO play out, buyout price 3 to 3.5B,
2.5-3/share on full diluted 1.2B shares, no buyout, muddy
results, stay here $1.5 if street see a fighting chance
of approval, a $250M to $300M secondary offering. Any way
I see NWBO, the upside is limited.
In the case of NWBO, not really, if you read the NWBO message board,
NWBO IR director has told many who called him that NWBO is trying
to publish the data at a medical journal, the purpose is to make
sure street do not misinterpret the data, NWBO gets one chance to
PR the data right, we have to ask questions why, Muddy results, IMO.
For any longs thinking Geert need more than two month for
full data analysis, CVM need some professional stock pumpers
like NWBO is having and talk to CVM IR and get some leaks about
no data before medical journal publishing, 2 month later
still no data PR, the story change to secret BLA filing and
waiting FDA's approval, what kind of bullsh*t that is going on
at NWBO board, the very simple reason of no TLD PR after 4 month
data lock may be NWBO trial hit the new primary endpoint with
a weak P value 0.04-0.05, but the important secondary endpoints
which include the original OS and PFS endpoints are not SS,
this means NWBO is trying to find support to explain why the
new weak primary endpoint P value is meaningful for approval,
I think FDA and street are going to ask how can NWBO justify
approval with weak efficacy even compare to the historical
control.
FWIW, may be nothing.....
AACR ANNUAL MEETING 2021
Virtual Meeting
Week 1: April 10-15;
February 4, 2021: Submission Deadline: Final Data for Clinical Trial Placeholder Abstracts
https://www.aacr.org/meeting/aacr-annual-meeting-2021/key-dates/
Watch CVM Friday's action, we may see huge volume if Geert does not tweet by Friday's close, IMO.
Have to act on my belief of ASCO abstract submission
by Feb 17th and Feb calls are cheap enough for a gamble,
put in a bid, so far, got 20 filed....
100%, expect the unexpected like CVM from to 15 to 40,
we all should be derisked with the jump and holding CVM
with ZERO cost of own capital!!!
Let's hope Geert does not tweet for rest of the week
and TLD next Monday, yes, if the OS is as strong as
Geert says, the analysis should be clean and fast,
only thing Geert may be planning is the ASCO submission
which may delay the TLD, if no ASCO submission, all
bets are off for me! No more adding CVM now....and
move my attention to OMER for CV-19 data PR...
Geert may be missing the perfect market to F**K shorts now,
CVM may not get the extra $25 to $30 short squeeze premium
if Geert is taking too long to PR TLD when market is in full
correction mode, IMO.
JPM Warns Amazon And Google's Blockbuster Results May Have Marked The Top,
The question, however, is now that all the upside catalysts are out of the picture, "what’s next for the group" asks JPM and cautions that "it is possible that you see the group used as a source of funds with no major catalysts on the horizon and lowered risk of a Reddit-inspired move."
Which brings up a follow on question: "If FANG+ fail to rally from here, can the broader tape move higher? There has been increasing chatter across the Street that the combination of positioning and valuation may trigger a pullback."
Agree, CVM is consolidating the gains here, will be very
interesting the FEB option week Feb 15th to 19th if no
new before then.
23 is my low point of range 23 to 28 before any new information
from Geert, my bid is in below bids now, just in case...
I think CVM's CSO Dr. Eyal Talor may be inside the data
analysis team and impowered by Geert to make the decision
all data analysis and submit for presentation, agree Geert
knows the TLD of win or failure last week, He does not
say we are blinded to final data any more in his tweets!
The reason CVM went up big Wed is one of Geert's tweet,
after I saw it and I read it means the trial is a
success, and bought many Feb 25 calls from 0.60 to
0.80, guess Street may have the same opinion and buying
started, today's close tells me the new information
has price in and stock may trade 23 to 28 before the
news, just like NWBO, once the new information of revised
trial endpoints show up on UK and EU sites, street
read that NWBO trial may hit the OS endpoint comparing to historical
control, NWBO stock took off to 2.5 and leveling here
1.5 fair value pending the results.
Safe way is to hedge like you buying both calls and puts,
but I always bet on the upside only, feel good MK success
because the 2.5 year 298th event delay backs up all the bullish
Geert's comments, I believe him, good luck to CVM longs!
MAR 25 and 30....I am confident CVM wants to present
full data at ASCO, so abstract deadline is Feb 17th,
CVM have to PR the TLD before the submission, IMO.
300 call contracts....for 30000 shares...
Here is another point not many know, biotech companies are
allowed by FDA to be informed if the interim look TLD is passed
the test for efficacy to stop the trial, but for reasons the trial
is to continue, purpose is to let the companies to get CMC ready
for NDA or BLA filing as long as the companies keep the information
to them self, it is obvious in AMRN's case, and it may true with
CVM here, IMO. That is why listening to companies conference call
is important, some how CEO's comments and the tone of speaking
may give out the hints, IMO.
Well, I was looking to load few hundred more calls today,
seems out of luck for cheap calls now, I am ok with 200
FEB calls and lucky bought 300 MAR calls when CVM drop
to below 21, hitting my limited order sitting there for
3 hours. CVM longs, hold our positions now, no time to
swing trade any more, only add more if shorts push CVM down,
this time is for real "soon, very soon", and 50 to 100+
after TLD PR, IMO.
70.87 Billion Reasons Why The Retail Brokers Just Betrayed Their Customers
How much? According to financial data analytics firm Ortex, short-sellers - mostly hedge funds - are sitting on estimated losses of $70.87 billion from their short positions in U.S. companies just in 2021 alone! Add puts and other underwater derivatives, and the real loss will be even greater. And just as striking: Ortex data showed that as of Wednesday, there were loss-making short positions on more than 5,000 U.S. firms.
There's more. While unconfirmed, there is speculation that that "Citadel reloaded their shorts before they told Robinhood to stop trading GME." As the source notes, if true the people behind this should be in jail.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/7087-billion-reasons-why-exchanges-betrayed-retail-customers"
Boy, are they in trouble!!!!!!!!!!
Now we know SEC rules have many loopholes, before no small
companies dare to challenge them in public, Elon R. Musk
did it first, Geert and NWBO are doing it now, IMO.
I will repeat the process again by buying the Mar calls
again to 1K, if CVM stock is keeping going down every $2.
I really do not know what to say any more, what else poor
Geert can tell us that the trial is a success:
Geert Kersten
@GeertKersten1
$GME “Illegal” rule changes by certain brokerage houses today. There are the rules for us, and then there are the rules for them. Our rules are fixed, their rules are ... very flexible. But, at $CVM we are finally winning. Phase 3 cancer data will rule!
I believe Geert knows the TLD!!!!
He is saying he wants the full analysis done, then
he will PR TLD(IMO)the results, He can not PR the full data
set, no conference and medical journal will accept the
data for presentation and publication after it is public.
Call Options opened today up to 60 cross all option chain, this implys
street is expecting MK trial potential success and fair value up to
60, my base is trial pass the test with 10% to 15%, stock worth 50 to 60,
anything above 20%, 85 to 95, if Geert's expectation of to repeat PII
results of 33%, 100+, IMO. From Geert's tweet, My read, Geert is
telegraphing to us, MK data is between 10% to 33%, more likely at high
end, I bought 300 MAR calls back today, just to be safe, but I am
90% sure TLD come out before FEB 19, full data at ASCO in June.
Tomorrow is end of month, shorts may try to force CVM down 1 or 2
for window dressing, I expect next Monday is whole new ball game, IMO.
This comment imply data PR is very close, IMO.
Geert Kersten
@GeertKersten1
Replying to
@biggercapital
I want to ski with you. It is my favorite sport, yet, so close to the end of our Phase 3 study I cannot risk getting sick. That would be simply stupid. Enjoy.
This comment imply OS primary end point top limit is PII OS, 33%, IMO.
Geert Kersten
@GeertKersten1
Replying to
@Kevin_W81
$CVM We need help every day because the idea for our cancer drug is to increase the “intent to cure” success rate, using cancer immunotherapy BEFORE surgery, etc. No one has ever done that before. If we only replicate our Phase 2 results, we will save countless lives. We believe!
Thanks, I will buy back in if the Feb option premium
is at right price, we may have Feb 35, 40 and 45 calls
added tomorrow, IMO.
I have 1K Feb options, I have $150K loss on my Nov, Dec
and Jan calls expired worthless, took profits and make
all the loss back+few $100k profits today, still have 200 Feb
calls for TLD.
One thing Geert is not helpful for the stock is lack of
TLD time guidance, IMO.
Fosco1 and sab63090, If Geert can not deliver the goods,
he is committing a professional reputation suicide,
He is a lawyer and should know what he is doing,
most important fact is the MK trial patients' average
duration in the trial is 5.5 years and only has 298
events which he keeps saying, I bet Geert will deliver
the strong efficacy TLD any day from next Monday.
OH, My....here we go: very soon and expect to crush shorts with
good results! My guess: Positive TLD any day, full data at ASCO!!!
Geert Kersten
@GeertKersten1
·
13m
Replying to
@Keubiko
People like you gaming the system are the reason why shorties are targeted these days. You make up the rules to screw the rest of the investors. In the case of $CVM though, the shorties are losing and paying 60% interest. And I fully expect to crush them with good Phase 3 data.
Geert Kersten
@GeertKersten1
·
25m
Replying to
@Keubiko
$CVM Thank you for bringing us to the attention of your many followers. Cancer patients not dying is a good thing in my world. In fact, it is the goal of the study. We will have our final Phase 3 data very soon and then you will understand why we believe.
I do not want to argue with you, but the primary OS endpoint
HR is calculated through out the whole KM curves to the end
which may show 6 year or 7 year estimates of OS rates of both
arms, IMO. We can expect the SOC MOS at about 54 month and
treatment arm MOS not reached. This is what it means by Geert
saying the MK trial is event driven and need 298 events to show
true efficacy by design agreed with FDA in SAP, IMO. The 3
year time is just CVM's estimated of 298th event may happen
when CVM submited the trial design to FDA, but the real time is
5.5 years, 2.5 years late than the design in the SAP, once the
delay happened, street started to realize MK trial may has a good
chance of success and to price in the new information.