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Cool, thanks for the snapshot. It does seem to imply new contracts and not any reference to anything in the past. Furthermore, if the previous 62 commitments were not considered firm I think he would have simply added those "handshakes" to the 62 - but he didn't. Let's see how it plays out. My guess is the next PR will have 62 + ?
He did not tweet "those handshakes," he tweeted "today's handshakes."
Margin calls on a non-marginable stock?
Gotta give it to ya, Tom. Such dedication.
It seems that if the convertible noteholder does not have the right to acquire 5% or more of the OS, then they do not have to be named. See here:
http://otclawyers.com/what-is-beneficial-ownership-under-sec-rule-144/
Pink Sheet Issuers Must Disclose Owners of Greater Than 5%
Pink Sheet Issuers who want to maintain the OTC Markets Pink Current designation must disclose in their filings the names and addresses of all parties that “beneficially own” greater than 5% of their Shares, even though these Shareholders are not considered Affiliates under Rule 144 unless they own greater than 10% of the issued and outstanding.
With this in mind, large Shareholders that would rather not have their names and addresses in an OTC Markets Information and Disclosure Statement should stay at 4.99%. Likewise, those who do not wish to provide the SEC with notice of their beneficial ownership, must also stay at 4.99%.
Wait. Are there new notes found in the 8K, or is it still the existing ones already known to the market? I calculated a worst case dilution of around 152 million shares total outstanding based on the remaining convertibles. That's just over 50 million more than currently outstanding. I've seen better, and I've seen worse. Hopefully they will come through with more contracts soon so forward looking value will increase. The higher the stock price, the more money they can raise per share sold (and the fewer shares that need to be sold to raise the same dollar amount). Higher value helps existing shareholders, so we need to see increase in value through more contracts.
There will be no Super 8k or Merger
Now that's a man with confidence! Oh, and I hope you are very wrong.
There will be no Super 8k or Merger
You should set your target price based on market conditions and/or chart points, not a profit amount. This is because if there is a chart point blocking your target you might not get filled, and if the stock runs through your sell order without showing evidence of exhaustion you may have sold too early.
Pepe, my man! How ya doin?
EDIT: LOL, was catching up on the board and just saw you mentioned this already!
I need to off load for tax purposes. will re buy.
I'm not sure why everybody hates MMs. When you need shares, they are there to provide them. When you want to sell shares, they are there to buy them from you.
They handle order flow and provide liquidity.
Happens on almost every ticker so not a bad thing just part of the game
So, what you're saying is there is a reportable offense occurring. It can be reported to the SEC right now?
By wash trading, do you mean illegal manipulation?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wash_trade
A wash trade (not to be confused with a wash sale) is a form of market manipulation in which an investor simultaneously sells and buys the same financial instruments to create misleading, artificial activity in the marketplace.[1] This may be done for a number of reasons:
To artificially increase trading volume, giving the impression that the instrument is more in demand than it actually is.[2]
To generate commission fees to brokers in order to compensate them for something that cannot be openly paid for. This was done by some of the participants in the Libor scandal.[3]
Some exchanges now have protections built in, sometimes mandatory for participants, such as STPF (self-trade prevention functionality) on The ICE.[4]
I had a feeling it was a bit more of a theoretical than actual loss. Thank you much for that layman's explanation! Your earlier one was incredibly detailed and a bit over my head. If they had one of those youtube "people are awesome" videos for accountants you'd definitely be featured!
The market in general is a discounting mechanism. Expectations are usually priced into a stock. If they don't deliver on expectations, the price will adjust. Any stock, whether it is Apple or OMVS, is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it at any particular moment in time. The market decides the price. We're getting close to Aug 31, when the market expects the merger to be finalized. I'm just hoping they meet that expectation.
Hey, Q. Thanks. Not anything you said about share structure. Just thought you might know what the Derivative Liability is in the 10Q. I see the remaining convertible notes listed separately, but again not sure what the derivative liability means or how to interpret it.
Nope, only China manufactures robots. That statement is a bit extreme, but you get the point. As QTRADERQ once pointed out, RAD is a VAR, or Value Added Reseller. SMP makes the thing that moves around on 4 wheels. OMVS uses the Nvidia AI hardware and various hardware sensors of all types and puts it all together and programs the code to make it work like a security robot. Kind of like a company that takes a Hummer and turns it into a stretch limo and sells it to a limousine company - Value Added.
From the May quarterly, we can infer an average conversion price of $0.0236 based on this line:
Proceeds from convertible promissory notes..........519,250
BALANCE, February 28, 2017..........17,656,844 [shares]
BALANCE, May 31, 2017...............39,721,804 [shares]
I see it differently. I'll give you what I think is a very balanced and comprehensive view, coming from someone who is long the stock.
RAD has a developed product, but they are just beginning to deploy them. It's very different from development stage where they are just building one single robot and refining it. They still burn through a lot of cash while in R&D, no doubt, but there are differences. Right now they need money to fulfill the orders because they need to pass payments along to SMP and other suppliers in order to create the product that they have obligations to deliver. The more orders they have, the more money they need to fulfill the orders. I'm no accountant, or even a business expert for that matter, but I would assume they need funds for what is referred to as COGS and they have no operating cash flow because there is no revenue and they are just getting the ball rolling. It's like a car that needs an electric starter for a few seconds, then it can drive a thousand miles on its own (with enough gas, of course). They need money in order to proceed with product deployment so they can get those revenues. I don't know if the revenues will show up immediately due to common business practices like Net 30 or similar, but if they are leasing robots like they say they are, we will eventually see the revenues in the financials of the publicly reporting OMVS. I guess it's mostly to satisfy my curiosity about financials for RAD when I say I want to see their numbers. As I understand it, RAD is wholly owned by Steve. Maybe he's used his personal capital to fully fund it, or maybe he has friends and family who helped. I don't know. But, I guess we'll see what RAD's numbers are if this deal closes.
As far as the "why" of joining OMVS. Who here makes perfect decisions in life, in business, in investing, whatever? An opportunity came across for Steve and he took it. Did he shop around? I don't know. Could he have found a better deal? Maybe he could have, but it would have taken more time. Everything is a trade. My guess is he traded a bit of OMVS's baggage for the benefit of expediency. Could it be that nobody else was interested in backing RAD? Sure. But maybe it was just that he wanted to proceed now and not later.
As far as the hyperbole, nobody can argue that explosive stock growth never happens. It's rare, but it does happen. I've even tried to knock down some of those estimates a few notches here on the board, and I am invested here. I've seen explosive stocks go bad. See my earlier post about selling at least some of your stock if it pops. We are all basing our optimism on what RAD is telling us, which is that they already have orders for 62 robots totaling $6.2 million in (future) revenues. We have seen them provide updates adjusting that number as it grew to be 62. It looks like there is momentum there. Yes, it comes down to whether you trust that what they are telling you is true. With all the PRs, social media exposure and the relationships they have publicized with companies like Nvidia, Romeo, Verizon, Microsoft, etc, I think there is plenty of evidence against them if they are telling us all about all of those connections, and the orders they have lined up, and it all turns out to be B.S.
And if the merger deal falls through at the last minute? Yeah, absolutely people should know ahead of time that this is all about RAD and not OMVS. They should know that OMVS is nothing without RAD. Invest with your head, not over it. But, from what Steve is telling us everything is on track. Again, it's how much you trust a stranger with your money. Always leave open the possibility for the worst to happen. I have not invested my life savings in this, and you don't have to, and you can still potentially make a lot of money. I don't know if my calculations are correct, but I figured in an earlier post that the maximum remaining dilution on this is about 68 million more shares, or around ~155 million shares total. I hope I'm right about that (QTRADERQ, where are you?!). Bux is confident that some or all of the remaining debt is in friendly hands, meaning investors now holding the debt are in for the long haul and won't dump their shares from convertible notes for the instant profit. Of course there is always risk. We'll see how it all turns out.
Oh, and as usual, it's all just my opinion.
Well that does get a bit nuts, I have to say. I've planned my trade and I'll trade my plan. I'm in this at average about 9 cents. Definitely selling 10% of my stock if it hits $2. I'll try to adjust that sale price if I can read the tape and the chart correctly, but definitely letting go of some shares on that kind of strength. If I let go of 10% at $2 and I'm wrong (ie: the stock goes higher), I'm still right on 90% of my remaining position. If I'm right to sell at $2 (ie: the stock goes down from $2), I've locked in my gain that I have at the current $0.20 plateau (because $2 is a ten bagger from $0.20). I'll still be plenty happy to be holding 90% of my position if it goes a lot higher than $2. And IMO $2 is easily justifiable if Knightscope is holding at $3 at it's IPO (if it gets there). Beyond $2, I'm not sure. Maybe another 10x from there, or $20 will be my next sale. Then 5x, or $100 (now selling 20% instead of 10%). We'll see how it goes. Any fundamental changes can possibly alter any of those targets, either up or down.
Good luck to you.
Bux, do you have any idea when Knightscope stock will hit the open market? It would be nice to see how their stock holds up considering the $3 offering price. I think they have around 30 bots lined up at $60k each. Your formula doesn't bode well for Knightscope. That's 20% x $2 million x 25 = $0.31 per share. With the $6.2 million in future revenue for OMVS/RAD's 62 robot reservations, that puts us at exactly the same price of $0.31 per share (and that's with our share count being three times Knightscope's 32 million, with ours assumed to be around 100 million right now). Seems Knightscope is overvalued and we're the better deal right now. However, based on the 10Q filed in May we still had $1.6 million in convertible notes. Not sure if I'm doing this right, but taking the line labelled "Proceeds from convertible promissory notes = $519,250" and dividing by the share increase of 22 million from Feb to May we get an average share conversion price of $0.0236. Assuming a similar conversion price for the remaining $1.6 million in convertibles (I wasn't going to go through that whole list on page 10), our maximum remaining dilution is around 68.3 million shares. Interestingly enough when you take the last known share count of 87.9 million from the 13G filing and add the overhang of the potential 68.3 million in convertible shares (total 156.2M shares) and plug it into your formula you get:
$6.2M x 20% = $1.24M
$1.24M x 25 = $31M
$31M / 156.2M OS = $0.1985 per share (fully diluted)
We are just below fair value at the moment. Let's close this deal and see more robot reservations!
OK you're getting closer to convincing me, but my proof that we don't have an IP claim on that is that there is no proof we have an IP claim on that. We don't know what the paperwork on this partnership looks like, but I will concede it is a greater possibility than I had previously thought.
If OMVS/RAD helped add improvements and it turns out they do get a piece of the action and it brings in some more money to us, then great. If not, no biggie. Just give me those financials with the $6 million in revenues, with more on the way, and I'll be happy.
Ah, yes. It's obvious that they outdid the former SpaceX and Tesla engineers.
Obviously? But, why? Can't just say, "Bippity, Boppity, IP" and make it so. Gotta make your case if you want to convince me.
Hey, I have to point this out. Gekko was the bad guy in that movie.
OK, that's great. But, it's hard to put a price on it. Also, I don't know about the sharing of IP rights when one company works on a custom solution with another's product being integrated into it. Does RAD share intellectual property rights with NVidia just for having it's module in the robot? Anyone can start developing projects with the NVidia Jetson module. Here's a dev kit on Newegg for $600
https://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16813190007&cm_re=jetson_tx2-_-13-190-007-_-Product
Is NVidia sharing ip rights with everyone that buys that from Newegg and makes something from it? Even if a company works with the manufacturer, I'm sure it's more of a consulting relationship than a partnership. I guess it would really depend on whether they struck up a formal contract specifying the terms of the relationship.
Doesn't matter. We're here because RAD has 60 robot reservations lined up worth $6 million in sales and we expect more to come.
Current valuation as of Friday 4:30pm is at around $16.4 million, or around $19 million if you use that guy's estimate of 102 million outstanding right now. I have seen quite a few posts with fantastical valuations on this board. If it's half of $150 million that's still a winning trade here in my book. I'll tell you one thing: I will definitely be selling at least a portion of my position if it is trading up after the merger. Companies can get tripped up at any stage in their development. They could make 1 milestone per year for 5 years and then crap out in year 6. My plan is to load up early and sell my shares slowly. Gotta take some off the table when prices move your way otherwise it's always all at risk.
Romeo Power's valuation has nothing to do with RAD's valuation. RAD is just buying batteries from them. My personal net worth doesn't go up any higher from buying a cup of coffee at Starbux, which has a market cap of $78.5 billion. What does add value is the battery itself, which improves RAD's robot performance by lengthening the amount of time it can operate before needing a recharge.
I think some of the criticism here is fair. There has been a large increase in shares out in just a few months. The 10Q filing in May showed $1.6 million in convertibles still outstanding. I see $15.9 million in derivative liabilities. I'm struggling to figure out what Parsons has been doing with OMVS because from what I understand derivatives seem to be commonly used as a hedge for companies dealing in commodities, interest rates, or something like that. But, as someone has pointed out the valuation hasn't changed all that much. In the same few months that we've seen dilution we have gotten news of increases in robot reservations and RAD has put out a statement that they expect $8 million EBITDA by the end of 2018. That means expected revenues will be higher than that. To what extent I don't know, but Knightscope is selling shares based on $420k revenues for 2016 and a valuation of $3/share X ~32 million shares after offering which equals about $96 million market cap. Without even using multiples in the calculation, take Knightscope's $96 million as a comparative valuation combined with projected outstanding shares in OMVS of 120 million and we get $0.80 per share. But we haven't seen the closing of the deal yet, so the $0.80 is downgraded to the current market price which is what the market is comfortable with at this moment. Obviously this is just my opinion and anyone attempting to put a valuation on this stock is just guessing at this point. As others have pointed out, the success of this investment hinges on whether the deal will actually go through. One unknown is RAD's financials which we do not know about yet. Hopefully RAD's business will be able to offset the negatives that Parsons brings to the table. Whatever those derivatives are, hopefully they can be worked off the books. Same for the remaining convertible notes. Hopefully Parsons will be on board with focusing on what seems to be a winning bet with RAD's business and phase out whatever else he's been doing with OMVS which obviously hasn't been working out for him or OMVS shareholders. I've got my ticket to the show. I hope it's a good one.
If you smile when someone calls you a looser, then you must have a screw lose!
maxm isn't dumping. Test them and slap big enough, they move back.
Let the loosers be loosers
There is some weight on this stock, no doubt, but it also looks like buyer(s) are defending 0.16 as revealed by the declining highs combined with the flat support. I could see another test of 16 happening or even an excursion to 14 where the 50-day MA is, but hopefully it would be a hammer that closes right back above 16 if it got to that.
Yeah, and then hopefully through .135
Someone mentioned iRobot a few days ago and I was surprised to see only ~28 million shares outstanding. Amazing how they were able to keep it down like that. There are some fantastical valuations being presented here for OMVS/RAD and if it reaches just 10% of what some people are predicting I'll be more than satisfied. It is a bit disappointing about some of the baggage coming along with OMVS, but I guess that's the best that RAD could do under the circumstances. I'm not overly concerned about it, but it is there. Just my opinion, of course.
What those kids need is OMVS stock. I gave some to my niece
lets get every kid in this country a 6 Inch plactic S5 Mini Bot for the Holidays
However, this coming week could be somewhat gut wrenching as more manipulation may knock down the S/P.
Yes, I saw your mention of the 20 million shares out, but I am just not sure where you are getting it from. I did ask about it in an earlier post, but I think you missed my question in there. The best I could calculate was 10 million based on the Nov 2016 filing of the DEF 14C. What is your source, if you don't mind me asking? I do not see any mention of shares outstanding in either of the more recent SEC filings in March and April 2017 and otcmarkets.com has very old data indicating 245 million as of April 14, 2009.
I understand what you are saying about the bills and the debt holders. Can't help you there. As you say, who is paying them? But, I did not suggest that there was recent dilution. On the contrary, I wrote that the low volume the past few months doesn't support it. Actually now that I think about it some more I should say it doesn't support any substantive distribution of dilutive shares, so maybe there is in fact dilution going on to pay the bills and the new shareholders are just not selling yet. After all they need liquidity to liquidate, and we do not have much liquidity here. I'm just saying I have some concern when I see the potential for 670 million convertible shares to hit the market. If I'm not reading the info in the DEF 14C correctly, let me know (see page 5, and apply the 1:100 ratio to the Shares Issuable column).
Ok. No problem. I'm worried to the extent that the upside could be limited, but I'm not heavily invested here and I could weather a total loss if it played out that way. In fact I had to do just that: eat a total loss on the remaining shares I had in PGPM because it got suspended by the SEC for suspected fraud. It got demoted to the grey sheets when trading resumed and is now trading around .0003, far down from .0039 before the suspension. I was fortunate enough to have sold 70% of my position on the way up. When it was on its way back down, but before the suspension, I started to expand my position again. So from 30% invested I swelled back to 60% of my original position and that's what I took the hit on. But, since I sold so much at higher prices and I rebought at such low prices again, in the end I still came out ahead. Still holding, and actually bought a bit more, but from what experienced penny stock researchers say it looks like the stock will never recover. The point is sell a majority of your position on the pop, maybe even more than I did (shoulda sold 90%), because convertible holders will want to lock in their profits and they will be selling on optimism. They're conversion price is almost always ultra-low, like .001 to .0001 from what I've gathered. The company gets very little for issuing those shares, and the note holder will take the money and run. They don't call it toxic financing for nothing.