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Isn't this market exciting!
For many it's the first time for an all-out bear. Can't go on forever though. If you have any money left bargans will abound.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
Rien
It also seems to me and maybe I'm wrong about this but myst does his aim on a day to day basis rather than monthly and I never found that time period to be very good. Also his example is for a relatively short time span and AIM requires some time for results.
I like the concept of x-dev though in my trials with it on some of the stocks I follow I didn't get such hot results. But then again maybe I wasn't doing it quite right either.
Yes, AIM is nice for the "I don't want to be bothered for a month or so" crowd. But in all fairness with X-DEV you can place limit orders so you wouldn't have to be a "slave" to the market.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
Tim
A long time ago I generated random Corn prices using +/- 1 penney incremental moves (just to keep it simple) from -10 cents to +10 cents as these were the limit moves corn could take. I was amazed at the results. When I ploted these out on a chart it looked just like the real corn charts.
I concluded comodities prices were randomly generated which indeed they must be. Still my charts had all the same patterns. And did it matter if they were random or not. Perhaps I was dealing with a natural effect.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
Rien
If you generated random numbers you could do many passes and record the results quickly. I don't know how easy it is to download prices in bulk. I know I do it from Yahoo, one at a time from Hist Quotes and it takes a while.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
Hi tom.
I think each rally we see will be fighting this profit-taking battle for some time to come.
I hope your right because it should be good for us AIM'ers I'd think. Lots o' action. Thats what we like!
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
Hey Fuzzymath
My view is that today's profit-taking was just pessimists who were vacationing on Friday gathering their gains. Does anyone agree? I think we may have hit a short-term bottom last week. My models did not counsel exiting the market today...
I see it that way too. My Composite trend did not agree with the lower nasdaq if compared to the sept/oct lows. If this market holds things will be looking up.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
New updated charts on AIM Rebal (Trendseekers) site as of 7-5.
Also updated Composite Trend data for last week.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
Hi Bernie.
Good post. I agree. It seems to me on all the backtesting I've done that Mr L's default settings are for the most part the best.
It's that old bugaboo of running out of cash! I think if you invest in Blue chips and are diversified you can borrow from other issues if you run out.... But there I go again tring to modifiy the rules.
Will I ever learn?
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
K..
Interesting graph of composite weekly trend.
I will watch it.
Thanks K. it will prob be sunday nite before I can update it again since this is a long weekend.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
Hi Rajan
I like that idea and how about combining those two together.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
MathematicalAnalysis.com
Very ineresting site. Got it bookmarked.
Thanks
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
Hey Tom.
The rate of decline in risk slowed for this week's report primarily because of greater confusion by investors. This confusion will evaporate quickly, just like market Speculation did and give us a bullish signal in the next few weeks, I feel.
I'm with you on this. It seems to me that as it was over done on the upside a few years back it's now being overdone on the downside and unless some doomsday looms on the horizon things should be getting better soon.
As Aimers we love these excesses.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
This market action will certianly put my new composite weekly trend down into the aggresive buying zone.
I keep thinking we have seen enough but then down some more.
Then again perhaps some investors don't want to be in the market over the 4th due to all the talk about terrorest threats and that's what driving the market down. Maybe next week will be better.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
This market action will certianly put my new composite weekly trend down into the aggresive buying zone.
I keep thinking we have seen enough but then down some more.
Then again perhaps some investors don't want to be in the market over the 4th due to all the talk about terrorest threats and that's what driving the market down. Maybe next week will be better.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
I don't see the far worse senario but I didn't mean to imply that we are embarking on a new giant bull market either. We should see a nice bounce. Good for AIMers!
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
There is hope on the horizon. it seems as though this market is going into a reversal pattern as we speak. The next few days/weeks should be very interesting!
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
Hello Jibe (I notice there is a "jibe" and a "jibes," are these the same person?),
There is another fellow named jibe. I'm jibes. (boyhood nickname)
I believe your Re-bal technique will work with Automatic Investor. You can set up a portfolio containing 4 different stocks (you can actually have up to 50 stocks in one portfolio) and run it for a month. At the end of the month, buy and sell in order to rebalance. Then run it for another month and keep repeating.
Great! I think from my studies that 4 is the best number.
You'll have to calculate the amount of shares to buy/sell (and which stocks to buy/sell) manually.
Would it tell you how much of each to buy?
If the equity value doesn't change, after your rebalancing, then you're all set. Otherwise you'll also have to resolve what to do with the Portfolio Control when you make non-AI directed trades. AI allows you to manually adjust the Portfolio Control, so you can pretty much do anything you like in that department.
In my plan I use the amount of cash required each month (if any) and add that whether through aim or not. This maintains the AIM rule when buying.
jibes
It downoads OK on a PC, will be checking next week. thanks.
Barney.
Thanks, I'm glad to hear it's working on a PC, If you have any questions let me know and I'll try to ans them
jibes
Aptus
Good luck on your new board. I'm sure it will be quite popular.
As indicators go I really like STO-RSI as presented on stockcharts.com. A stochastic of the RSI indicator. An indicator of an indicator if you will.
If you set the parameter to 30 or 40 days it gives very good patterns. It's quite similar to W%R. Very useful in the weekly as well as daily charts.
Note the fact that in the weekly charts the indicator goes as I call it "high blue" or conversly "low blue" when down. Some potential there. I just don't quite know how to harness it.
Anyway check it out.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
To Everyone.. Aim ReBal SpreadSheet available:
For those of you who are interested. I have a link to my AIM Re-Bal Spreadsheet. I use a Mac but it should work on an intel machine as well. I'm just guessing that it 's downloadable even though I did download it myself as a test.
Anyone who would like to test it and let me know if there is anything missing or wrong with it please. Or if you have any improvements to make.....
I do not gaurantee the accuracy or even the correctness of the spreadsheet. You would be using it at your own risk.
BTW. it is set-up for four stocks monthly. The prices go in the blue area of columns L,M,N and O. It is set up to not use more cash than available, although it may be in the red by a little at times.
I have 3 years worth of the lichello series with each stocks price offset by the next price in the series. You will see what I mean anyway.
I know there will be a few questions.
The link is the very last thing at the very bottom of my site home page (link below).
Good luck. I hope it's not too confusing.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
To Everyone.. Aim ReBal SpreadSheet available:
For those of you who are interested. I have a link to my AIM Re-Bal Spreadsheet. I use a Mac but it should work on an intel machine as well. I'm just guessing that it 's downloadable even though I did download it myself as a test.
Anyone who would like to test it and let me know if there is anything missing or wrong with it please. Or if you have any improvements to make.....
I do not gaurantee the accuracy or even the correctness of the spreadsheet. You would be using it at your own risk.
BTW. it is set-up for four stocks monthly. The prices go in the blue area of columns L,M,N and O. It is set up to not use more cash than available, although it may be in the red by a little at times.
I have 3 years worth of the lichello series with each stocks price offset by the next price in the series. You will see what I mean anyway.
I know there will be a few questions.
The link is the very last thing at the very bottom of my site home page (link below).
Good luck. I hope it's not too confusing.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
To Everyone.. Aim ReBal SpreadSheet available:
For those of you who are interested. I have a link to my AIM Re-Bal Spreadsheet. I use a Mac but it should work on an intel machine as well. I'm just guessing that it 's downloadable even though I did download it myself as a test.
Anyone who would like to test it and let me know if there is anything missing or wrong with it please. Or if you have any improvements to make.....
I do not gaurantee the accuracy or even the correctness of the spreadsheet. You would be using it at your own risk.
BTW. it is set-up for four stocks monthly. The prices go in the blue area of columns L,M,N and O. It is set up to not use more cash than available, although it may be in the red by a little at times.
I have 3 years worth of the lichello series with each stocks price offset by the next price in the series. You will see what I mean anyway.
I know there will be a few questions.
The link is the very last thing at the very bottom of my site home page (link below).
Good luck. I hope it's not too confusing.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
toofuzzy.
Where were you two years ago when I decided to reduce the SAFE on my mutual fund accounts so I would get some buys after five years of only selling? (grin)
After all the tests I've run on AIM, I still belive that Robert Lichello's 10% Safe is the best overall.
There are times when other safes are better in hindsight but who can predict? It really boils down to running out of cash.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
Note: while I have been following the board, I have not done any tweaking myself, so I cannot give you a spread sheet. but there may be someone on the board who can.
Yes, I would like some ideas on how people would go about constructing a spreadsheet for AIM Re-Bal.
I have one and it's set up like one would do it on paper.
I have more or less a reg AIM section at the top of the sheet and then for each month I have the re-bal sections below.
It works well enough. I copy each rebal "block" (one below the next) down the sheet. I leave enough room at the top for the AIM part. The two sections interact with each other by my input back and forth. It's set up kind of like it's shown on the web page.
I can't help thinking there has to be a better way, like each months entries made on a single line across the sheet like one would do with AIM.
Any Ideas?
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.htm
I think that if I had two or more deep divers I would use aim Re-Bal on them. I would simply add the two Portfolio Controls together, and go on from there. What you should see is, as you re-bal the stocks the aim sell price point should start to decreace, until normal AIM buy, sells start to take place. At this point you should be able to go back to aiming each stock by its self if you want to.
One has to be careful when dealing with these stocks. Make sure you know why the stock is down so much. There could be a good reason. If you were to do the aim re-bal you could be selling off part of your good stocks just to buy more of a loser and this could put you into a vary dangerous position. This of course could be done with reg aim too by simply taking cash set aside for other stocks. It's one of the pitfals of aim and has to be monitored closely. If a stock has a bad story it can always be sold and another put in it's place.
jibes
Note: while I have been following the board, I have not done any tweaking myself, so I cannot give you a spread sheet. but there may be someone on the board who can.
Yes, I would like some ideas on how people would go about constructing a spreadsheet for AIM Re-Bal.
I have one and it's set up like one would do it on paper.
I have more or less a reg AIM section at the top of the sheet and then for each month I have the re-bal sections below.
It works well enough. I copy each rebal "block" (one below the next) down the sheet. I leave enough room at the top for the AIM part. The two sections interact with each other by my input back and forth. It's set up kind of like it's shown on the web page.
I can't help thinking there has to be a better way, like each months entries made on a single line across the sheet like one would do with AIM.
Any Ideas?
jibes
AIM Re-Bal site has been updated to show comparison between it and standard AIM. I know some of you were inerested in this.
Thanks,
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
AIM Re-Bal site has been updated to show comparison between it and standard AIM. I know some of you were inerested in this.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
To All:
For those interested and even though it's not exactly an AIM related thing I have a new feature on my website called "PPO Xover." Check it out.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
To All:
For those interested and even though it's not exactly an AIM related thing I have a new feature on my website called "PPO Xover." Check it out.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
Looking over the PKI chart for the last 3 years and in view of the fact it's not in the red (by the books) and it's a lot cheaper than 6 months ago and it looks like a good candidate for AIM.... I would say go for it.
No gaurantees of course. 3:)
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
Matt,
Just guessing, butI suppose one ended up lower than the other because when the study ended it was at the low end phase of it's cycle.
jibes
karel,
No problem here, when AIM Re-Bal doesn't prove to be the silver bullet of investing! As long as we have a fair idea what kind of stock and portfolio composition is necessary, things are OK
Thanks for your encouragement.
The more I think about how it works the more sense it makes. I was a little set back by the results because I feared that I was jumping the gun on AIM RB since I didn't have much data to support my claim that this thing worked. But because of some of the comments and testing on Matt's modifications I can see that stock selection can (at least in this case) have an influnce on a system.
I will have to do more testing though to see how well this AIM Re-Bal really works.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
Matt.
This is great! I wanted to do a study using the Lichello series but I didn't quite know how to go about it. But inverting one against the other would work fine.
Now let me get this straight. You did just a re-balance on the two without using AIM as in AIM Re-Bal to get the $2.68mil?
If that is true then maybe Re-Bal would be quite powerfull on the right kind of stocks. In the past I tried it on the Dow 30 stocks and wasn't impressed. Why I didn't try it on some wilder stocks beats me.
Great work Matt!
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
I think it's great how this board has spawned some new thinking on the AIM formula. If this keeps up AIM will be the cats PJ's feven more than it is now!
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
To All...
Please go to my site and read the small mesage I posted there where it says "New note about AIM Re-Bal."
Thanks
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
To All...
Please go to my site and read the small mesage I posted there where it says "New note about AIM Re-Bal."
Thanks
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
Am I correct in thinking that your re-bal calculation and your aim calculation go hand in hand. In other words you do both together. I thought I read a post where someone was going to do the re-bal calculation weekly and aim monthly(??).
Yes. the Re-Bal is done at the same time as you do AIM. The two do go hand in hand. Some months AIM says no buy or no sell. You will still do the Re-Balance and even that might say take no action. More than likely though it will take some action. I recomend doing it once a month.
However there are times when a stock in the port will fall a great deal (or rise). Lets say 15% in one or a couple of days during the middle of the month. I will then do a "special" It's just too good to pass up. What I do is do the AIM Re-Bal at that time instead of waiting till the end of the month. Of course this has it's dangers because how low is low and how high is high? The stock may still go down or up farther. Common sense should prevail.
Also, Let's say you had a portfolio of 4 stocks. When you do your re-bal calculation(along with AIM), you should get an exact buy or sell amt for each stock. So you don't have to decide which stock in your portfolio to apply your buy or sell to (which isn't the case when using AIM alone), re-bal tells you how much of each to buy or sell. Is that correct?
The formula shown on my website shows that each stock is compared to the "IDEAL VALUE." Any of the stocks will fall above or below this number and the diference is the amount you buy or sell. I ignore any order under $100 for the time being. I think is should be a min percentage though rather than a fixed amount.
Jibes
Matt
Congrats on perhaps "the" missing link to what should have been in AIM. I like it!!!!
R. Lichello would be proud.
Keep up the good work.
P.S: I'm going to apply it To AIM Re-Bal and see what happens.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html
jibe.
I didn't set mine up with anthing in mind but I did select them at random. I would say try to use stocks from diferent sectors. This way the Re-Bal part would be much more effective.
Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html