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Why does DD find it more risky to own something with a p value of 10 to the minus 7 versus a company with a drug that got a not approvable (MNTA)? Why is GTCB attractive (to whoever said it that their mgmt team and such sucked i agree- i met their IR guy at a conference and he was like WIlford Brimley)?
Is he trying to be a contrarian indicator?
Oh Lord
Another blowup for Great Point and Orbimed. SGX Pharma. Why havent investors pulled ALL their money from these guys yet?
Much of website redo is complete. nice improvement in terms of information and organization.
Definite shorting today IMO. When stock drifted down on low volume and large asks, buying occurred and trend changed and stock showed strength, even into the market heading strongly downward.
Short interest increased 100k to 1.257 as of 3/11 trade date. my guess is that we are at 1.4 MM as of today.
i like the fact that shorts are shorting still for two reasons- one i think theyre wrong wand will have to buy in and two them shorting adds liquidity to the name which makes it more attractive or less "less attractive" to funds with liquidity constraints.
Short interest up 100k. keep those shares coming as i need the liquidity.
Few commments here:
On a lesser point- Dew has consistently not backed up his statements with facts whether it be IND pessimism, other FUD, 6 times statement, etc. By the way Dew, I am short MNTA and yes the position is down but my fund is up well into double digits this year so before you get concerned, don't.
More importantly, regarding JP's "slam dunk" comment. After having known JP for 5 years I believe the comment stems more from his frustration with the market's perception of the company's prospects (as evidenced by the current market cap, the endless speculation of p values with 7 or so zeros, funds owning the stock who keep blowing up and have to exit) rather than pumping or naivety or whatever. This is his midwestern straightforward way of communicating to the market that he has conviction. After having spent all of my life either in the midwest and NY/NE, I understand JP and I understand the East Coast's reaction to him. The reaction of an East Coaster to a midwesterner is always bipolar- either they are charmed or they hate the no-nonsense straightforwardness of the person. In JPs case, a vast majority of East Coast funds that I have spoken to have traditionally had the latter opinion but I am hopeful with the continued delivery of results from the company that he will win more and more of them over.
JP is a straight shooter and when there is doubt he gravitates toward more disclosure/conviction/whatever and those that view him as too straightforward or even promotional view the additional statements as even more so.
Personally, I prefer straightforward in management. I think too many people have been burned more by the nebulous management teams- remember ENCY, etc.
That's ridiculous. An overwhelming majority of funds abide by the rules. The worst thing one can accuse fund(s) of is intensifying momentum in markets (e.g. in the case of a downward moving market- to short more if net long so as to prevent further capital erosion).
I disagree with your 80% probability of financing. It's a lot lower in my opinion.
no.
my understanding is it will take 2 months to enroll (may/june) and then 3 months is july aug sept. maybe things slip a month but that leaves them 2-3 months to do filing paperwork which they should have started anyways.
Not being a smart a** but i would listen to replay.
i) endo trial ongoing with enrollment picked up
ii) 4 fibroids trials (2 anemia and 2 chronic) are starting with 1st dose in may- now doing finalization of setting up sites
iii) should report 2nd round of open label fibroid efficacy data here by end of month- safety already reported per PR last week. no d+cs or safety ises. should have 3rd round of open label done by summer with results shortly thereafter.
iv) raise $ late summer of Fall by worldwide partnership or small financing. Right now 11-13 companies under CDA with 7 one:one meetings going on - data room set up etc.
v) subjectively he is more confident in Proellex than ever.
vi) Androxal 2 PIIbs to start May/June with one in NYC led by key urologists and one i think at Harvard.
its available on delay via webcast on rprx website.
the live # is 866-237-3252; passcode 442473.
I think if any of these guys who persistently throw around uncertainty and questions do not ask a question on the conference call, they have lost all credibility. RPRX is not GE and therefore is not limited to a few chosen sell-side analysts to ask questions. The calls in the past have been open forums and actually it's tougher to limit what JP says versus trying to get him to answer questions.
If the shorts were smart and were adept at running a large portfolio, they would have seen 9 of 10 of their small cap btk/pharma stocks down and this one holding steady via accumulation. At that point you have to say to yourself that "I can't win them all" and just cover and take 9 winners home.
Even with a large holder potentially out, I think short interest will tick up again next posting (after posting a 10k gain last 2 wk period).
Doc, either Great Point Partners, or Franklin Resources.......
or both may be liquidating some of the rprx shares due to KERYX hit.
****************Well lets compare the two. One is a specialty healthcare hedge fund/private equity shop who has a slew of positions down 30-50%+ for the year and a bunch of "faster money" fund of fund investors. One the other hand is a monstrous sized mutual fund who could absorb one bad stock move and who was adding last time they filed. Hmmmm.
If you look at a lot of GP's positions over the last 2 wks, many were down 20% which smelled of a large holder getting out. My guess (this is qualified as a guess) is that they are experiencing a good amount of redemptions, if not in serious trouble. This is an opinion based on nothing more than performance of many of their names in the past months, the type of investors they have and the sharp drop in many of their stocks over the last few weeks- I do not know for sure though.
I believe whoever the seller is that he/she is not cleaned up. The 250-300k of blocks over the last few days were at the tail end of a significant quantity of shares being leaked out of the prior 3 weeks (there was a lot of leaking- those days that the stock closed positive by a cent or two and someone joked about manipulation- that was some persons buying everything anyone would give them at a flat to down stock price).
if you cant figure it out (hint: KERYX) call me.
they dumped 50k more- use logic and you can figure out who it is- which holder had some blow ups in its portfolio recently.
********Firstly, many of the below questions have been answered a number of times.
There are 15 pts in the placebo of the 2 anemia trials- i would encourage you to look at the slides in the Company's presentation. These patients experienced no/minimal increase in Hgb despite even being on iron with a small std dev. No spa b/c it would have slowed down the trial design by months to try to negotiate one. The company is using 25 and 50 b/c of the protective effect of the endometrium as defined by the FDA as a need for consistency to back up the chronic fibroids trials and endo trials from a safety database perspective.
I suggest instead of insulting me with comments like Tony Snow/Bush, you actually get off your dead a** and read the previous answers to your questions and IF you are still not satisfied you should call/email the company for a response. It seems to me you are either lazy or want to keep posting questions for the sake of posting the same questions to create uncertainty.
----------------------------------------------------
Sounds just like Tony Snow interviewing Bush.
How about some real questions?
Why 15 patients in the palceboe arms of the 4 trials, especially when you know many will drop out?
Why no SPA?
The FDA does not like companies to use higher dosages than have been shown effective. For anemmia, why is the 15mg dose not in the P3?
What are the endpoints? In particular the company states the trials are 2.5X bigger than the P2s. So, this implies a composite endpoint of both arms treatment arms, or a P reduction. If composite, isn't that a danger in the fibr. trial? If a P reduction, what?
I know all these issues were beaten to death, so no need to ask. Just present the softballs.
y, its either partnership of some sort or small financing once more data is in (efficacy data like chronic fibroids, interim endo and potentially Hgb). If this is truly a concern, you should look at the action in the stock the last 2 times he raised $ (2004 and feb 2007)- stock traded up during roadshow and was priced well above where roadshow started.
you thankless pos. JK. LOL. go out and raise a huge fund and then you can have an hour meeting to yourself to ask whatever you want.
Some questions you might have had:
i) one ex-Us trial and one US trial b/c int'l compliance has been better (including willingness to do biopsies for sake of recruitment ease as well) ex-US.
ii) The results will not be compared to Lupron after the fact in the literature. Lupron has been about an improvement of 2 units (i cant recall if it is deciliter or whatever) historically in the literature but if proellex does worse than it did in the prior study (about 2.5) but is still stat sig, it doesnt matter.
iii) size of trial is b/c thats what they need to get stat sig, in fact it is 2.5x larger than size of last trial with pts having same criteria. Joe said what i said earlier in that if it was larger he would be criticized for taking too long. LOL.
iv) as expected, there arent a significant number of other conditions that could lead to other bleeding in younger women that would make proellex arms results look worse (e.g. GI bleed, cancer)
v) current criteria of lower Hgb makes for better p value vs all pts in prior study (higher Hgb women have less improvement)
vi) 4 trials start pts on drug next month
vii) efficacy data for 2nd round of chronic PII (open label) is due within 30 days (we just got safety data last wk recall).
Mr FUDoo,
If you do some diligence on clinical trials run by CROs, reimbursement to appropriate parties is based on completion of the recruitment, running the trial and keeping pre-agreed upon paperwork. What is your basis for insinuating that RPRX will have a paperwork problem, Mr FUDoo?
I have a meeting with the Company this week. Does anyone have any questions - should I have excess time, I would be more than happy to ask some suggested questions. That being said, I think we have already beat PIII anemia trial design and mg dosage like a dead horse.
I'm glad. I feel like if this level of not only diligence but in my mind persistent doubt and "nitpicking" were done on a number of other names in the sector, I suspect the holdings of many of these posters would be dramatically lower.
For MNTA, Dew and whoever else cant put together a cognizant argument for a drug who already received a "not approvable" and they cheer when there is short covering from $8-10. Now its 8s again. For RPRX, we beat the same dead horse over and over and no one is satisfied. P values of 10 to the mius 7 or whatever are challenged routinely. The hurdle is different.
cmon.
you know that some drugs in same class have different affinities for receptors.
Look at clomid vs androxal - different isomers (both isomers for clomid vs single isomer for androxal) of the same molecule and it has a hugely different effect on hypothalmus/pituitary.
Proellex® did not induce, however, the blood vessel wall thickening and latticed capillary patterns seen with some other progesterone receptor modulators.
? Anyone have an explanation for that? Why one would be better than another? Unlike, say, statins which seem to operate through several mechanisms, Progesterone modulation would seem to be something that should be pretty straight forward. (I say that knowing that mif also affects the HPA axis - but that seems far distant from the endometrium.). Probably a question for which it is unreasonable to expect a complete answer - but in the current FDA environment it may be useful to have some possible explanations.
******This is what we have been saying all along. Proellex is a pure antagonist. Asoprisnol is a mixed agonist/antagonist. Asoprisnol saw induced blood vessel formation which Proellex is not seeing. This is why people on asoprisnol bled and got D+C's after 2 yrs. Proellex does not have this. This is what is most problematic. What is not problematic is the thickening (which is not cancer for the n-th time) and to make this benign finding a non-issue, the holiday period was developed.
People are confusing the above.
youre right i think it was sgp.
One thing people should think about in the sector:
Moves in some of these stocks are not necessarily fundamental in origin (especially ones that look like they cant be explained). There are hedge funds blowing up every day due to (i) poor performance and redemptions and (ii) prime brokers are LOWERING margin capabilities to squeeze some funds (so leverage is being taken down). In the case of ii) it is getting shady such that some funds have had their holdings repo'ed (at ridiculous valuations) b/c of random changes in margin requirements, in effect stealing from the funds (e.g. JP Morgan and Amaranth last year).
My advise is if you see a move that is unexplainable I would be more aggressive than normal as it might not have a fundamental explanation. Just some FYI.
My recollection of the Vasomax disaster (and I was in med school at the time so it might be sketchy) was:
i) they got a partnership with was it glaxo?
ii) they had excess cash and started buying back stock (and buying it back as the short interest increased thus in effect buying from shorts)
iii) the carc studies came back and one rat had a brown fat tumor and the FDA shut down the whole thing
Not sure how this is more/(less) deceptive than any other company who has had a drug fail for efficacy/safety.
JP did what he thought was best in terms of running studies, using excess cash to reduce float b/c it was a good investment at the time and tried to not build an empire.
Outright manipulation.
There is no doubt that Nerf (and perhapse some friends like DocB) posted bogus trades amongst themselves in oreder to get a green close so Nerf could win his bet.
*****If you think that the action yesterday was manipulation vs outright buying, you should put a block of stock out on the offer. If the stock is manipulated you should be able to buy back lower.
"always average down"- I know someone who does that and I named it the "Martingale trading system"- which he didnt at first understand to be not so much of a compliment.
LOL. I guess then those with the "strong investment track record" (that's you right?) agree with Nerf's thesis that Efficacy will jump in and buy ~3 million shares at a 50%-90% premium to market price. It is only us neophytes who find such a scenario unlikely.
*****Who knows what Efficacy or someone else might do but for some people here to keep blasting him when they themselves have poor investment track records is silly.
Oh experienced one... pray tell how's your "large" MNTA short position fairing? I really was going to follow you into that trade but I couldn't get the stopper out of my piggy bank before the stock shot up 25% on me.
*****Its down a buck based on avg cost so far. This one will be like NRMX which went higher before it went drastically lower.
By the way, to be respected as a sage who is connected to the company and the other institutional investors you have to actually answer some of your followers questions. Why don't you give the board some details on all of those fantastic realized returns on large positions that Efficacy have had in the past?
*****Both Efficacy and I participated in RPRX's first offering at $4. That is the cost basis for many shares. Look at what Effiacy did for Praecis- 2 to 5 in a buyout.
Its my understanding that these results from the second period should be released soon- the data is in and needs to be tabulated and organized.
Oh Geeze.
Well it looks like the tone of the conversation over the last 12 hours has changed from one of a bunch of confused people trying to poke a hole in a trial trying to replicate a p value of 10 to the minus 7 to a conversation by a bunch of people who lack a strong investment track record trying to give Nerf some Hell.
ty dewophile. have a great day.
i think anything is possible- the institutions left in this name are true believers. Anyone who thinks IF the company issues stock that they'll automatically be able to get stock is smoking crack.
As far as screwing the shorts or whatever your terminology was, i think the fact that some shorts have been able to cover is a function of some weaker retail hands plus Orbimed. Not sure if a short squeeze could or will occur but I am not focused on it.
i dont think anyone is "underwater" even at these levels. Why do you think 33% is etched in stone. 33% could easily be 49.9%. company has flexibilty to do a lot with commmitted ownership and 100% economics of 2 drugs.
Lets just say they take lumpy positions in names they do a ton of work on. I know many of the PMs in the space and these guys know names cold. You can mention a one-off to them and they can speak for 5 minutes extemporaneously on a name. Dont they have had a number of companies they have successfully taken chunky positions in and gotten sold for multiples of market cap.
Efficacy files they bought 50k between 2/28 and 2/29. Now at 19.2%. Short interest coming in. Makes you wonder who is getting redeemed, if anyone, to cough up these shares. Perhaps it's just some people selling now in hopes of buying back later more cheaply.
LMAO some short started a rumor that Efficacy was going out of business.
These shorts have a risk:reward profile of 1:20 at best and they insist on trying to capture $1 while risking $20.