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With Watt wanting to only increase affordable (risky) mortgages, and the Fed continuing to buy MBS in big numbers, and talk of no longer requiring banks to hold as much of their own mortgages as they were required to hold after the 2008 crisis, and HAMP being extended for another two years (not to mention HAMP defaults on the increase lately).....one should assume "they" are trying their hardest to inflate a big old housing bubble again. If FnF is reformed or an announcement favorable to shareholders is announced before this next bubble pops, all of that news could benefit us, as bad as it might be overall for the economy.
Thanks for the interesting info on your approach to countering the utter madness we've been subjected to lately. I'll watch that video later today.
Could they do that without releasing FnF?
Just to prove I'm not making that up...here are some links explaining the proposals. Obama ran on this in 2008. No one heard about this at the time? Hm. The media didn't think it was important enough? That's a lesson for trying to follow FNMA or other ticker news via mainstream media, too. Anyway, they call it the "Automatic IRA". Yes, it appears the current Gvt wants to take over IRAs and 401ks. It's just good to be aware of, in case it gets more serious traction soon-ish. Among other details;
The funds in your current retirement account will be converted to “longevity annuities,” which typically don’t start making income payments until the investor is well into retirement, 82-85 years old.
Guaranteed Retirement Accounts (GRA's) will be administered by the Social Security Administration.
Much like S.S. Accounts, the uncollected equity will become the property of the Government, once the individual dies.
A ton of details on the gvt's proposals can be found here if you're interested, especially starting around their points #7-9, including House and Senate bill numbers (which might have changed since this was written, or if a congressman has re-submitted the proposal):
http://news.goldworth.com/newsmax.php
and here is famous investor Jim Sinclair saying he thinks this will happen within 2 years:
http://sgtreport.com/2013/03/recap-of-jim-sinclairs-nyc-meeting-you-have-2-years-to-get-out-of-iras-silver-to-see-orgasmic-rally/
Completely agree with you. Btw there's been lots of talk of the u.s. fed gvt taking or reforming IRAs and 401ks too! They see the $19 trillion in savings in those funds and are drooling over them. Many detailed policy papers and interest groups are already quite advanced towards making this happen. But it's not in the news. Politically it may not be possible. But just know that those in power right now want to do this, and from what I've seen and read, I think they'll start pushing for it for real after the 2014 elections, and it might be reality within 2 yrs. Have an idea of what you would do with your IRAs and 401ks if this starts ramping up seriously.
Fed buying, not selling mbs. Anyone see this from Fross at FMCC board? Looks like Ben's a gonna keep on buying. But not selling.
http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20130725&id=16739476
I love this kind of stuff! Thanks so much for the video NT. This is the kind if info that every regular retail investor should at least take into account. The games that are played are extremely sophisticated and the regulations are often outdated, too slow, or just too difficult to police or understand, or the SEC simply chooses not to enforce certain things at certain times. It's why it's harder and harder for retail out there. I believe there are some ways of mitigating the risk of being gamed by the big money. And I'm not anti hedge fund or anything. But there are still some good fundamental plays (fnf should be one of them but the politics is holding it up) that retail can take advantage of. Big tickers with big brand names on top of big markets. Super stable blue chips. There are still ways to let your money grow via long investments. Another way is to not care about that, and to instead jump in on news and uptrends, and take any profit when it appears for you. Repeat and compound. You eliminate some risk simply by not being IN a ticker for too long (when a short attack is always a risk). And you take what you can. It's not hopeless for retail. But see that video and you'll see the big $ players are playing a totally different game. They are completely ruthless, and their incredibly sophisticated techniques, often based on using the media and lying, are designed for one thing; taking retail's $. Just beware. There will still be googles and Fords out there, decent fundamental plays for retail. And you can always just put some in the s&p and don't touch it for years. Don't rely solely on the day game unless you've proven you can prosper that way. Paper trade a lot!
And they'll report them only if their paymasters and manipulators want them to. Media is 100% corrupt too.
Romney's guy wanted principal reduction. That's probably why obama has been referring to him. Prez has talked about principal reduction for years. As far as i know, that could be accomplished with or without keeping the GSEs. Until i see more info, obama referring to mitt's advisor doesn't mean he wants to keep the GSEs. Unless, of course, he is mentioning mitt's advisers because they wanted to keep the GSEs AND obama also wants to keep them. But again, he hasn't specifically said he wants to keep fnf. And he had said he wants principal reduction. So that is why i think he mentioned mitt's advisers: principal reduction only.
A hedge guy i know said that some hedge funds have accounts whose goal it is to simply break even. Why? They get a discount in commission fees after a certain amount of trades! So in those accounts, if they make a zillion trades, and simply break even, then their commission discount essentially IS their "profit"! Basically, any way they can make any $ they will do it. That's one of the stranger ways i've heard!
I've heard earnings could be out Aug 6. Aug 6 -9 was the range i heard. Everyone expects it the 8th but as far as i know, the exact date hasn't been announced yet. I sympathize. I was out of country and without internet when corker bill dropped. Btw you could always set more than one gtc order to sell some shares at different price levels. Maybe sell some at a safe level, some at higher level, and some at a very exciting level? A lot of traders break their plays into thirds kinda like that. Also, consider that some suggest you sell going into the earnings and not necessarily waiting until after earnings come out to sell. Those people like to sell into the anticipation, and worry that either the earnings won't produce as much of a bump in price as many hope, or that if a dump happens it might happen too quickly after earnings for people to catch. Just some thoughts. I'm no expert! Good luck though.
There is the real mystery. Why did they let commons go on trading when they took away all voting rights etc? I bet it was because the gvt needed the commons in tact (muted though they were) so that the gvt wouldn't have to take the GSEs' assets onto its books. That's why took 79.9% instead of 80%. And without the commons still existing it would have been 100%. But that's just my guess as to why they allowed continued trading of commons. Anyone have a thought on why?
Agreed kylie. Dont get me started. Look at some of my previous posts if you wanna see what i think of gvt and how skeptical i am of it. But i have a lot of knowledge about it, too, and about the kind of history that doesnt show up in textbooks but is what really shaped our world. Plus, i actually did my DD on this current prez starting back in 2002 or so, long before anyone had heard of him. Trust me, the dirt in that guy's past is simply astounding. "Woods Fund"? Annenberg Challenge" anyone?
We are all hoping the gvt does the right thing here? Some ppl here, gotta love em, but they actually think the gvt cares about the people etc. well, if you think of our gvt as what it really is made up of (paid advocates for the banks), then almost everything the gvt does makes more sense. So, yeah, i fully believe the gvt is intending on screwing over the commons. Look at what they did to gm bond holders for instance. Overturned hundreds of years of investment law and precedent by displacing the bond holders! This fnma ticker shouldn't be a gamble bc fundamentally it's a sound play. But it is a gamble only bc the gvt does what it wants, when it wants. But there is a chance that the larger picture and / or the courts might force the politicians into doing something that will work out alright for the fnma commons. But it'll only be bc they cant figure out how to screw us if it happens like that. Bc you've got to assume they're gonna try! Good luck to all!
One would think we'd get compensation yes. I just would never ever underestimate the gvt's penchant for finding or pulling some "trick" as you call it. Maybe they'll find a way to only make whole those who had shares before 2008 (using some inane justification for that "trick"). Maybe they'll give compensation that is nowhere near what it should be. I'm just hypothesizing here. One can imagine many ways they could pull a trick. We just have to hope the political winds favor them not pulling tricks, and that the courts would back us up if they did. And now, after typing this, I expect to be audited (speaking of gvt tricks).
Agreed 100%
He was a constitutional law teacher at u of chicago and taught that in a "progressive" way which meant, how the gvt can progress "beyond" the constitution (that's the history of progressivism). Hopefully it's not relevant to fnma's future, but he has spoken very negatively about how the constitution constrains the gvt. See his 2001 interview on NPR for instance. The man has serious disdain for the constitution. I do not say that in an inflammatory way at all bc if you like that, then hey, he's your guy. But because of deep ties to his hometown, i know a good deal about his past and how he taught, etc. He is an intellectual, but that doesn't mean he will or won't do something you or i would agree with. And as an investor, you've just gotta be unemotional about our leaders. Check out what he really taught at UofC.
He's starting a months' long campaign where he'll be making speeches about the economy. So we might see, as policy papers surround his speeches, some evidence of what he would support st some point during this campaign. But if anyone can stand to listen to the guy make any more speeches, then they deserve to know that info before i do! Sorry, why didn't he unveil his big plans in the economy during last year's campaign? This is all a show he's putting on. But at some point we'll get a hint of what he will support. He honestly likes to let congress do all the work, step out on the limbs, and pass the laws before he ever dares take a stance. Then he signs the bills. That keeps him insulated from the potential criticism he would suffer if he were out there proposing specifics right now.
Exactly how i took it. Sounded like he wants the FMIC plan to me. As long as commons don't get screwed in the process I'm fine with that. But I think they will try to screw commons somehow.
He said "work with fnf" and also said "turn the page on fnf"? Well ok that could mean anything. Like, work with fnf to wind down fnf. Or work with fnf to turn the page and reform fnf. What kind of reform? How reformed? What happens to commons? Absolutely there is no solid info in his comments at all. Remember he once said he wants a "national civilian security force as well trained and well funded as the army"! What did that mean? Is that our TSA now? All politicians speak in a way that gives them a lot of room to still negotiate and be bought.
Govtrack.us says H.R. 2435 has been referred to Committee (on 6/19/13), but has not been reported by committee yet. It projects the bill has a 7% chance of getting past committee and only a 1% chance of getting enacted. Why would the gvt so voluntarily give up such a cash cow as the GSEs? If they're gonna give em up, it'll be in a way that the gvt still has some of its hooks still attached, or it will be because of a court decision.
He wants a larger gvt role in housing than this bill provides. But don't take my word for it. Yesterday all the dem congressmen in the markup hearing said the same thing, prez will never sign this bill they are marking up.
Full house just might pass it. Senate never will pass it. They might reconcile it with the house and change it significantly. But ultimately, if a bill that's anything like this one gets to the prez's desk, the prez will never sign it. Everyone knows this too.
Yeah those are real concerns. But the conservator has a fiduciary duty (legally obligation) to the shareholders as well. But now we're talking courts if those two realities (fiduciary duty vs almost unlimited power of the conservator) end up in conflict.
As I've pointed out before, the list of gvt unconstitutional behavior is extremely long, which makes this fnma case a little worrisome. Just for fun I'll add to yours list. Recently the prez made "recess appointments" when congress was not in recess. FDR confiscated people's gold via executive order (paid them for it but then he revalued the dollar to complete the screw job). Supreme court in the mid 2000s Kelo decision said gvt can take your property for more than just infrastructure purposes, including for purpose of increasing tax revenue. The nudie scanners of TSA. IRS being used as a weapon against political opponents, punishing people for their political views. Forcing Catholic Church to pay for abortions. Lincoln suspending due process. Congress subcontracting their constitutionally exclusive obligation to manage our monetary policy. Anyway, if this pps drop has anything to do with leaked news, I don't blame anyone for worrying. But if you want to hold long, you do have the constitution on your side. You / we just have to hope it holds up and doesn't get trampled. That's why those Rich Epstein interviews are so informative.
Listen to the Rich Epstein interviews from last week and last weekend. I really think those interviews will answer a lot of your questions. You ask "why" this and that regarding what the gvt did to fnma, etc. Epstein is a big shot lawyer academic who's consulted some hedge funds about the legalities and lack of legal precedent for what the federal gvt did in 2008 and 2012. The details will probably shock you. It was pure unadulterated theft. It was 2 gvt entities (in a case of "self dealing") signing a deal that takes the property of a 3rd party (shareholders) without even involving that 3rd party in the decision in any way! They shut out the board of directors and everything. Listen to those interviews. One can be found in the john batchelor show's podcasts. I think it aired last saturday night. The other can be found at soundcloud.com by searching for the Hoover Institution and then looking through their posts and finding Rich Epstein. Look for Fannie and Freddie in the title. They "why" of it all is pretty simple: theft. But they cloaked it all in the guise of "saving the economy". We all know there were ways the gvt could have intervened without taking the shareholders' property entirely. This was theft.
How can L2 in the moment shed any light on charting forecasts that might extend hours or more into the future? This sounds very interesting. Feel free to tell us how we can start trying to combine those if you get a minute. What can I see on L2 that even hints at some price movement in 2-3 hours from now?
Or are you simply saying you use both L2 and charting? Charting for long term guidance and L2 for more precise entry / exit points.
Is there a way to use L2 to forecast that far in advance? I'm not the most advanced L2 user. I only can get directional hints for the immediate moment up to minutes away. Maybe 5 mins away on a liquid stock like fnma at most. Can anyone here use L2 to forecast hours ahead on active tickers? If so, how?
This is true, yet congress and other gvts around the world are talking more and more about taking control of the internet. It's proof that they know that free and easy information flow is their biggest enemy. How can they continue their unchecked corruption when the internet makes their dealings so easily seen?
Sometimes they do voice vote. And our politicians are so corrupt that I've even seen a voice vote or two where the clear majority votes one way and then the committee chairman simply declares that the voice vote went the other way. Then he slams down the gavel, and there's nothing anyone can do about it! I tried to find a video link but I don't remember who the chairman was so it's hard to search.
Whoops! I was only listening, not watching. Their voices must be similar. Thanks for the info though. I like knowing who made me laugh in these meetings.
I actually agree with the market oriented approach. But I generally think that at least some gvt role in backing housing can be helpful. If it were up to me, I'd privatize 90% of it. But, as an investor, I saw the political reality here, as well as the illegal actions the gvt took when it put the GSEs in cship, and then amended that cship. I therefore knew that it'd potentially be a good investment even if, in order for that investment to pay off in a big way, some political actions that I'd ideologically disagree with would have to happen. My ideology shouldn't matter when i pick stocks. And gvt involvement in housing has been around a long time, and I highly doubt the conservatives would be able to remove gvt from housing while a liberal is president. As long as they don't screw commons, then, I'm fine with the outcome.
Did you see how maxine waters threw out that 35% downpayment number and the guy called her on it and she totally backed down to 20%? Hilarious. Busted! These people are all thieves and liars.
I thought that he said people pay off their homes in 7 years average. That sounded equally surprising to me as what you heard. Which of us heard him correctly?
I'd say there's a chance of that yes. But it depends on how those good earnings do or do not excite the market. A lot of retail players will get caught up in the excitement of good earnings and will buy. But if there's enough of a headwind from bad-looking political news at the time of earnings, then the price per share might not quite get up as high as it did last time. When the last run happened, a lot of people who jumped in were not fully aware of what the politicians were planning. When the dump happened, then the bad political news picked up steam. So the share price dropped. There's a lot of manipulation here by the big $. Now the bad political news is starting to be countered by lawsuits that would be good for fnma longs if they win, and also by subtly changing political winds that suggest some politicians are leaning towards keeping fnma around. They keep debating and fnma keeps earning $. Definitely check out rich epstein's interviews online. One is on soundcloud. Another is on the john batchelor show from last weekend. Listen to those to get an idea of the law that supports fnma longs, and to get an idea (if you don't already have one) of just how brutal and thieving the gvt is. What the gvt has done to fnma and its shareholders is just completely unconstitutional.
Congressman: "no one disagrees that we need to wind down fannie and freddie". I don't know the name of the congressman that just said this. He was complaining about the fact that "we are not taking a bipartisan approach". Then he complemented the corker warner bill as bipartisanship. But then he said the 30 yr loan was essential.
Then the next congressman said the U.S. is 17th in the world in home ownership and the countries ahead of us have very little gvt involvement in housing. And he said the market will provide many options for buyers and the 30 yr will remain even if we wind down fnma. He claimed he's a builder / developer himself.
Congress doesn't care what's legal. That's just a risk we face. But the larger picture (or perhaps the courts) may compel them to do the right thing with fnma.
Beware, when congress decides it want to rob us or do something big, it can actually move quickly when it wants to. Think back to 2008 and TARP, for instance. That happened quickly. So did the stimulus bill. We longs are thinking congress will be too slow to act on housing reform, and thus fnma will reach "net zero" before congress can get their act together and vote to do something bad to the GSEs. But as we all know, they don't even have to read the bills to pass them! So if/when the political winds shift, it can happen quickly, and both parties are more than happy to cooperate on anything that will screw the regular people. So just have an exit plan even as congress appears to be its typically slow, grandstanding self.
Zargis, regarding momentum, that's been the way I've been heading recently, and can imagine momentum trading eventually being my focus. I like to take small gains from tickers that are in an obvious uptrend, and compound those gains. I'm no pro (yet?), and I like the relative safety of that approach for now. But let me ask you, is there any particular way you go about finding the uptrending tickers on a given day? I do some scans and sometimes use big news early in the morning to guide me at the bell. But I haven't really perfected a way of reliably and quickly finding quality uptrends. Thinkorswim has some good scans and studies that seem like they could help me do that better, but I've not yet experimented fully with them. How do you (or anyone else here) prefer to go about finding uptrends in progress?
I agree with that timeline. I've been saying to friends that I see the housing boom lasting maybe another year or 1.5 yrs. QE will continue even if its tapered down over time, probably for another 2 yrs. I believe QE is essentially fighting against a waiting correction that wants to occur. But the way QE affects things, there's no other place to out your money right now except in stocks. So we see record highs twice a week now! Eventually the market's desire to correct and the end of QE will come closer together. I'm just throwing stuff out there that makes some sense to me. Very general stuff but the correction you foresee would not surprise me one bit.
Look at volume before the last 2 runs. It was flat until it jumped up a lot in one day, which then marked the start of the run. Today's volume jumped up like those days that started the run did. Today's volume wasn't quite as high as those other days' volume. But it was in the ballpark. And given all the negative news lately, it might signify renewed long interest since it closed up by 13% with no huge intraday dips.
Still, when the shorts attack, volume has been a lot bigger than this. Be careful out there!
I should correct myself: the question i have is are they selling more of these than they "normally" do in some effort to more aggressively reach net zero?
Didn't the GSEs issue some of these bills last month too? And heck, if people are buying them (as it appears they are), then wouldn't the GSEs continue to sell more of these? Say, more in August and more in Sept? Are we seeing an attempt by the GSEs to reach "net zero" even faster than we thought they will? Is this Demarco's good idea?