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Well it did bottom at 45.52 and I said 45.50 to 46.50 so it's still within range to follow through.
If the freaking dollar would roll over that'd be all the juice it needs to do an about face and rip higher. Go figure, I'm waiting for the strongest play on the board to roll over, man I need help, lol.....
CL is not looking good here, I'd love to be wrong but at the moment it doesn't look like it wants to turn higher with any sense of purpose.
It's sucks today is Friday and it's good today is Friday depending on how good your top number is on these weekly SPX calls.
The dollar needs to turn down like now.
The next micro low for ES or SPX which ever should be bottom and they markets should turn, if not then we could have something else going on.
I do believe I said 2053 for SPX, that's where the confusion must be
ES bottomed at 2028 and topped at 2061, a pullback to 2045 would be 50% and exactly what you'd expect to see.
Since I've got the SPX chart up, I'm thinking like maybe 2053 as the bottom of the dip.
We still need a pullback from the markets, until that happens I don't see much else going on. If I get left waiting for entry here I'll accept it.
MD that was a heads up timely call you made about ES moving back over 2100. Even if it doesn't, making that call when you did got you out of trouble if you were short and on the right side of the trade if you were looking for an entry, very nice.
GDX really really really needs to get back over 18.45 of it could go south very quickly, that why I'm so interested in what the dollar is doing.
I see a local top for the dollar at 101.50 but if it can't move up and away from this 100 mark we could see a pullback and another high before any tradable move.
I'm expecting things to get hoping here before too long, the charts I'm looking at need to make some moves and they aren't gonna get to where the need to be if the trade sideways all morning. We need to see some north and south, not this east and west bologna.
Guys I'm telling ya, today is not a day you should even consider shorting the markets.
OK so ES should see a bit higher here, just a few points and if it pullsback to about 2045 that'll be my cue to enter a SPXW trade
I'm almost certain I'm gonna pick up 50K shares of PAL here. Want to make sure the Dollar's gonna kicked in the teeth first.
I want to make sure this isn't a head fake before I round out my UGAZ position.
Scaling into UGAZ starting at $2.50
Yeah, it's gonna be, I can feel it.
Here we go, NG is only a little more than .01 away from support.
I'm gonna trade SPXW today, just an fyi
I'd say support for oil is about $45.75
Nat Gas is a mess and frankly I can't tell which way it's gonna go but luckily it's range bound and it's gonna have to tip it's hand sooner or later.
Keep a eye on Oil here, I'm not 100% on this one but there is a decent chance that we could get a reversal here.
I'm here and may even get to do some trading to day. I see ES is pulling back to what could turn out to be that 2045 number I brought up earlier.
Damn, just rifled through the posts for the last few days and it appears I missed some great action. You guys sounded like you were clicking and I certainly hope everyone did well.
GEVO, I agree, gonna be a good one IMO, earnings on the 24th I think, could see a run up.
I'm really not sure what the general consensus is saying right about the markets now cause I've been living under a rock but I appreciate hearing what you guys think. One I can say from my point of view is the dollar is about to give back some of those leaps and bounds it's printed over the last few weeks.
Keep a eye on NETE here, it could bump up over $1.40 pretty quickly. Haven't seen any news over the few days but the chart looks like it could turn higher for sure. AMDA could still see a final low before it moves higher, like I said been out of the loop for the last few days but even if it doesn't make a new low it should see a decent pullback after the next high. It's just coming off the bottom and that was a pretty shape move from Tuesday so a little bit of caution is warranted until we know for sure that .47 was in fact it. Good Luck
On the NG chart if it holds that $2.66 low it could turn higher and head back over $3, like maybe $3.10 or so. If it breaks that $2.66 I'd be looking for $2.50 followed by $2.75 with a final low back under $2.50 that'll mark the low and a major long opportunity IMO>
Right now everybody and I do mean just about everybody is expecting oil to break the Jan low on it's way to a new low under $40 but I'm not so sure. Whenever the general consensus is so one sided it's a good idea to keep your "Plan B" at the ready. So right now $46.50-$45.50 is where I'm thinking this could go very wrong for all the new bears. If and this really is a big if, we start to turn in that specific range I'd be looking for a sharp reversal and a move back up to test the $54.24 high and if that gets taken out I see $60. Now that's my Plan B and I mention it because that would catch the most traders off guard and cause the most pain IMO. The pro's say under $40 is more likely with a $3 bounce somewhere around $43. If we do head down to $43 before we bounce then I'd have to jump on the under $40 bandwagon but for now I'm on watch for a possible reversal before that happens. Now just to jump ahead a minute at this point I think either way it goes we're gonna have some great trading opportunities. The $3 bounce won't be a bad trade but the second time we break that Jan low we should see about a $6 bounce before that final low under $40. So like I was saying either way works for me, lol, I just don't want to get caught watching a reversal take off on me while I'm looking lower.
So the bottom line is if CL fails to hold $45.50ish we'll most likely be headed under $40 but it'll be anything but a direct route. Hope this was helpful.
Good Morning EST, it's early and I'm just about to walk out the door but I should have time before the markets open to do some updates. I was going to just post them now and leave it at that but there's just too many things going on for me to explain the what if's and it may do more harm than good by posting incomplete updates I haven't had a chance to get caught up reading the post on the board so if you guys have any specific questions please post them as early as possible and I'll do my best to get them answered. I'll have my ipad with me tomorrow but I'm not sure how much work I'll get done. I'm going to be here in the morning to offer whatever assistance I can so please take advantage of the opportunity. Seriously, I'm going to have some time and I'd rather do what I can while I'm here so don't hesitate to ask whatever's on your mind. See ya in a few.
Sorry guys couldn't make it today but I'll be online later this evening. Hope everyone is doing well, see you then.
This is the hardest shake we've had in months.
Even though that retrace was deeper than I hoped for it was clearly corrective and that's a good thing.
ES forming a dissenting looking inverted H&S.
always ES unless otherwise indicated.
No doubt this is the first pullback, we want to see 2055 hold