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> loosen margin requirements
well no info on that, but as i mentioned here once before, schwab already did that back at the end of april.
> CASH!
cash is trash if real interest rates (after inflation) are negative ....
> I must report that Greenspan is not doing anything in the
> market today. He is sitting with me, eating onion bagels and
> cream-cheese; hasn't picked up a phone all morning.
are you watching his feet?
"how many OLD shorts are LEFT???"
well, i'm not old old, but i'm a hardliner, and have been holding brks, klic and pmcs for like ... forever. well, with hedging and some of the old in-out in-out.
looks like nem wants to break out ...
OT mlsoft:
good call yesterday, by the way. actually, for the last 3 months ... :-P
OT grrr. i like reading fleck. but i refuse to pay cramer for the privilege ... sigh.
> Some serious contraction in volume in KLAC today on the pullback.
i don't usually follow klac, but some of the others in the sector. a couple observations here. first, while its a decline based on closing prices, the stock has been trading relatively flat for most of the last four days.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=KLAC&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l
second, just eyeballing volumes overall, there seems to be plenty of variance, but i *think* the trend shows its more likely that low volume precedes a further decline, except for the extended period right before the ramp at the end of last month.
http://table.finance.yahoo.com/k?s=KLAC&g=d
... 30 downgrades
oh those analysts. you know, they just wanna get your shares cheap ... or so someone on yahoo told me ...
"Is there a way he can support BOTH the markets and the dollar via printing money?"
hmm. so maybe that's the endgame then: print enough money, devalue the dollar, and then when it's all played out, stocks - although extraordinarily expensive in 1998 dollars - will be nearer to book value in 2004 dollars ....
"I do not think the Gambit will work."
another sticky problem is: how does he keep the boys on wallstreet from pillaging the retirement funds of all of these folks. as i mentioned on a different thread, the audacity of this guy on the marketwatch weekend tv show, recommending to people that they take out home equity loans and invest it in the market ... it all *looks* like its built on sand.
i have 2 small short positions in them i've been holding for a while: klic from 7.5 and brks from 12.85 and 12.25. (the second part of that *could* be in danger, but ...). another that i'm holding short is kopn: they ran it very early in this rally, from 4 to high 6's, and then it got a downgrade on valuation and never really fully recovered. (very low short interest there.) however, a stragetically placed upgrade came in that popped it to 6.5+ and i shorted a bit there, and am holding.
i also have a short position in pmcs (now that's as dangerous as brcm, though ... but also have 12.5 calls). i'd expect a warning out of that one, not just because of business but because of a note in their 10-q regarding higher operating costs because of a strong canadian dollar. (its an american company, but a big chunk is in canada.) hmm. that's it. well, i have an eye on rsas, which seems to trade in nice clean channels ... so that's my play for when the internets go down.
that's my dark side. my bright side, though, is pretty bearish. (just miners.) well, i may trade in and out. although i've used msft and nvls. (short and long)
klic and brks have also been pretty weak among the semi equipment stocks, with brks pretty volatile.
"Whether the consumer will actually spend it or use it to pay down debt is another question and out of the control of Greenspan - personally I doubt the consumer will spend enough to save us unless the markets go a lot higher."
but, unfortunately, for *most* consumers - i.e. those whose exposure to the market is only in 401k's - this probably won't have the effect you describe. although "wealth effect" may play out .... but its going to have to get pretty high for that, and get them all out of that pimco bond fund.
> if Greenspan is really and truly controlling the market, then
> the Feds must have some target in mind.
why does this follow? i mean, the price target. if there's a "g. gambit", i'd think the goal is to get everyone back into the market ... distribute the new $$ to everyone out there ... doing through monetary policy what the president & congress should be doing through fiscal policy.
grrr. i've been saying one thing for years (proving that 'timing is everything', of course): the only thing separating microsoft from redhat is its monopoly. say what you will about the health of that monopoly, and the relatively successful legal efforts; but microsoft is not gaining desktops anymore (how can you when employment is decreasing and you already have all the desktops out there?) right now, its a battle to hold onto what they've got and convince folks to continue paying for what they could otherwise get "free". a popular revolt.
add to that a little data point: this weekend, realmoney's tv spot featured a guy who was discussing the question of when its appropriate to take out a home equity loan to invest in the stock market. (answer: if you can get a fixed rate.) discussion of risk never came up. once again, brazen.
are you talking about merlin?
:-P
okie dokie. see, i was confoozed by the "stage 2" thing too. i suppose i'm not as religious in following the board nowadays that LG's cool charts are far less frequently seen.
and besides, this market is boring me, sigh. just sitting on the sidelines waiting for something i understand. with some options though.
if i understand your charts/boodicator correctly, your sell signals are lagging and not coincident, right?
> I forgot about that
well, you're in good company. the entire market has.
> but so far, he is the only one - amazing.
didn't the ssb analyst already say that a good number of those companies will go under ... at least a month ago, i think
re amat
amat is nazdog stock, no specialist. the limit would be processed by your broker, right?
whoa! another depression song. you guys are fond of these ...
> AG will do whatever it takes to turn the first selloff back to
> the upside, but that does not mean he will be able to get the
> main rally restarted.
hmm. i thought that's what the rate cut was for, later this month ....
well, i just ask cuz i had trouble seeing the h&s on many of the techs as well. if i squint my eyes a bit, i could force it to be one ... but identifying the features and having a valid pattern are two different things.
interesting chart there on nem. so with everyone calling inverse head and shoulders on the tech stocks, would anyone be willing to say that about nem?
OT not old enuf to remember amiga. however, i've run into amiga fans everywhere: linux on amiga project, and the amiga emulator (also on linux). hey, i thought that os was bought a couple years ago and someone was going to release a next generation machine?
OT re drdos. you can upgrade that now for free via freedos. :)
> True there were better operating systems ...
ah, you're going way back though, to the establishment of the monopoly.
> Remember DR DOS?
yah, which was my point: it's not about msft selling knowledge, its about maintaining a monopoly. nothing more.
> The FUD is no longer working so you noticed they've gone to
> licenses that go by time and not product. Even that's starting
> to crumble.
well yah, that huge blip in unrecognized revenues last summer was everyone rushing to renew their old licenses instead of jumping into the subscription.
> And you'll notice IBM decided a few years back do and end run
> around MSFT and is now fully endorsing Linux.
not only smart, one of the things that first gave linux legitimacy.
well, he's certainly been wrong for the last month ...
ajtj, since you're an ewaver, maybe you could comment on zoran's analysis (i posted a link over on LG/augieboo's board).
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1086525
regarding eliot waves, here's zoran's current read on the market:
http://www.safehaven.com/Editorials/gayer/060803gayer.pdf
he has been very wrong throughout much of the last month, but that's force him to reinterpret his previous bearish picture into one that was mildly bullish (through 1200 on s&p), to one which now is horribly bearish ... or not. he sees next week as a "major interpretive week".
by the way, mlsoft
thanks for your interpretation of the i-watch data on kopn last weekend. (if you recall, i asked why someone might be posting sell messages at $2 and $3 on a $5+ stock, and you said most likely someone wanting to accumulate.) well, it appears you were right, and an upgrade came in early in the week, with a $1 pop on the stock.
> All MSFT has to sell is knowledge, so consquently their chart
> ain't looking to good of late.
this isn't quite true. ms's operating systems were always a step behind sun, say, when it came to things like reliability and performance. (remember, it wasn't until win95 that they even gave folks true multitasking or put a network stack into the kernel, which already put them literally decades behind other os's). the "dll hell" of incompatible upgrades, which necessitate all of this automation, to maintain consistency, is also something of their own doing, and purposeful, and entirely unnecessary from the point of the view of the user or the user's convenience.
microsoft's strength has been its presence and its monopoly and its ability to hold onto that monopoly. and through that, their ability to make folks pay significantly more for software than it costs to make, and to buy things that they don't really need.
without the monopoly, msft is much less than it was. when the competition is "free" ... msft ends up competeting in ibm's court (free software, pay for services). and with cash strapped it departments everywhere, where is the money going? (e.g. how many millions can a large company save by giving everyone open office instead of ms office? they have *nearly* the same functionality, up to reading the same legacy documents, with the exception of embedded visual basic stuff. what you save in $$ more than makes up for what you lose in functionality. and if that's not entirely true now, it become more true every day. after all, its just software ...)
does anyone see any significance in friday's failure of msft @ 24 on high volume, and what that might portend for the dow?
(e.g. i remember on friday, mlsoft was saying that he saw heavy buying coming in, but that didn't seem to stem the tide, and with msft now having given up all of its gains from the rally since march, that would at least put most foreign owners of the stock into negative territory over this period, what with the coincident dollar decline and so forth ....)
chartwise, shaeffers noted strengths in various gold charts in a message thursday, with the observation of a potential cup-and-handle on the gold futures ...
clearly there has been on the nikkei
hear! hear! federal reserves!
hence my comments the other day about this now reminding me of yahoo stock boards in 1999 ... and i'd add to that some strategic use of upgrades and downgrades in the analyst community, and ... well i guess it goes without saying that 'reg fd' has been suspended, considering the number of stocks that seem to move in anticipation of news ...
"I'm becoming convinced the bond market will sniff out Greenie's bullsh*t on deflation sooner rather than later. Will that money all go into stocks or into gold?"
wow, all that money going into gold would be like pouring the pacific ocean into a fishbowl.