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Nice catch:)
I'm not too sure what it could be at this point? They are closing plants & shutting there doors/winding down the business.
At these levels I wouldn't hesitate to take some profits at some point.JMHO
GLTA
Hey guys,
Been out of this for the last week now. Hasn't really been doing much since ER, and I get bored very easy Looking to re-enter again soon:) Gonna keep a close eye on it right now.
I think it's poised for a swing up very soon.IMO
Good luck & take care:)
Okayyyyyyyyy! Don't really understand why such a move up today with very little pullback so far?
This company is suppose to be done?
200% gain????? On what exactly???
Congrats to the early birds today:)
This will probably be it's last bounce people....Take advantage of it:) They will be closing there doors very soon. Winding down there business.
GLTA
Just jumped in fellas: Wowwy look @ the volume 10 min in to trading.....CRAZY
GLTA:)
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- BankUnited Financial, the largest lender based in Florida, was shut down by banking regulators and sold to a group of private-equity firms, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said late Thursday.
The seizure is the 34th bank failure so far this year and the biggest.
I do hate to "toot my own horn here" but I did try to warn.
See Below.........
Posted by: mervini Date: Tuesday, May 19, 2009 6:51:51 PM
In reply to: None Post #948 of 1149
Guys I do have to give you all props for trying and having the balls to "LET IT RIDE" on this one. But I'm afraid it's GAME OVER now.IMO
Their was 33 banks put into receivership in the past year. BKUNA will now be the 34th bank put into receivership. Why do some really believe it to be such a shock if this were to happen?
It's really the only logic thing to happen in such a distressed bank as BKUNA.
Why would any other financial firm in this case buyout BKUNA outside of receivership. WHY? WHY? WHY? Just wait until they are put into receivership by the FDIC and then sold off for pennies on the $1?
Yes you've probably heard all of this before, but it is very very true.
But no matter how many banks in the future threaten to go under, their will always be people betting that it won't happen. Maybe one day they will be right.
Their has been several warnings now for the street to get out. You have probably been blinded by this with people posting pipe dreams that this will be bought for 6$ to 8$ a share. Hopefully for some you will still have the chance to make the smart decision and find something else with great potential with out the ridiculous risks. Trust me their are plenty of other good buys out there right now:)
Good Morning All! Well I don't like what I'm seeing so far in premarket this morning. I sold my position @ .32. I'm going to wait and see how she trades later. I have a feeling trend will continue and we'll see it sell off today.IMO
GLTA
If you watched the way this was trading all morning it didn't seem like such a bad move @ the time. It's easy to say "you should have" after a stock goes up right?
There's still going to be plenty of time to buy into this. If this is going to run, it's not going to happen over night.IMO
With no PR I wouldn't expect pipe dream spike ups like many believe will happen tomorrow. I would love to see it happen, but I like to be realistic. Without PR this might reach .50-.60 MAX by Friday. I'm looking for .40-.42 to sell half for a nice double up:)
GLTA
Not too many do know at the moment But we might be hearing something very shortly.IMO
I will be amazed and shocked if this was just a pump & dump run like so many believe it to be. There's just too much behind today's buying activity/volume.
Keep in mind there is very little short interest as of today with only 2% shorted. Not going to see much of a squeeze out of it.
Hope we get good news soon:)
GLTA
Your right about something brewing here. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a PR before the long weekend.IMO
Right now just a lot of speculation I'm afraid. I have watched OSCI trade for over two months now and I can tell you that today's trading was "to say the least" out of the ordinary.
Maybe it's a potential buyout? maybe they secured long term funding? Maybe the FDA has approved their phase3 drug Ramoplanin?
Hard to say without any info/news right? Most of us are on the outside here speculating the cause for today's insane volume spike. We have now seen over 1M shares traded in AH with a high of .34(UNREAL). The daily average is 3.5M shares.
I believe something big is cooking here.IMO The way it was trading all morning showed me big players(insiders) wanted to accumulate this as cheap as they could before it started to run up steadily from 12:30pm into AH. Almost half of today's record volume was traded sideways at .21 to .225?(Very odd)
I expect A nice gap up in Premarket before open.IMO
How this will trade in Regular hours is too hard to say without anything to base it on. Expect There to be a nice pullback at some point,the only question is when?
GLTA
Solid afternoon with what looks to be a very strong close on record volume. Look to see a nice gap up in premarket trading tomorrow.IMO
Without some PR I don't know what to expect in regular trading hours tomorrow?
Any thoughts/insight??
There's no question that today's volume has attracted a lot of attention to the streets. Yahoo/google boards are getting bombarded with posts on possible buyout/funding/phase3 trial news. Whatever the cause is for today's insane spike in volume, I can assure you there will be tons of new buyers jumping on board in days/wekks to come.IMO
For anyone concerned about OSCI being delisted soon...
As for Nasdaq delisting its not going to happen soon because OSCI has at least until the 6th of October as announced by management -
NASDAQ Extends Temporary Suspension of Bid Price and Market Value of Publicly Held Shares Requirements; Oscient Compliance Period Extended to October 6, 2009
WALTHAM, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mar. 24, 2009-- Oscient Pharmaceuticals Corporation (Nasdaq: OSCI) has received notification from NASDAQ OMX (“NASDAQ”) that, given the current extraordinary market conditions, NASDAQ has further extended the temporary suspension of the rules requiring a minimum market value of publicly held shares (“MVPHS”) and a minimum $1 closing bid price by 90 days.
Well so far it was a good call to close out in premarket:)
OSCI is looking to trade record volumes today. I am still sitting here scratching my head while this trades wondering WTF is going on here?
Gaps up in premarket over 30% with no PR?
Insane volume?
Abnormal selling pressure?
It's traded over 10M shares between .21 - .225?
This is setting up to swing hard in either direction.IMO
interesting yet puzzling to watch
Yes your right! It is very shady @ the moment. I don't have a large position in this so I'm going to hold to see what this sucker does. If she drops below .20 then I'll probably dump.
GLTY
Yeah I heard that also on Yahoo message boards. This could also be true....Like you said very little short interest here and very little pressure indeed.
Interesting, Thanks:)
They way this is trading I wouldn't be surprised to see this run up towards EOD . I have to say it's Very strange trading for OSCI. I have watched this trade for a couple of months now and this is not normal at all. Something is up here.IMO
Days with over 10M in volume for the last two months.......
Date Close High Low Volume
Apr 30 0.242 0.278 0.140 14,917,272 up 70%
May 07 0.320 0.330 0.180 24,555,301 up 81%
May 08 0.278 0.380 0.250 14,465,030 up -15%
May 15 0.229 0.290 0.210 10,934,117 up 10%
Can anyone get the BUYS vs SELLS on today's trading so far?
Trading Volume - Average 3,319,100
we already hit over 13,000,000 by 11am & up 10 to 12%?
I checked out the short interest..... (Shares Short)744,900
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 0.2
Short Percent of Float 2.15 %
Short Interest - Prior 859,400
Short % Increase / Decrease -13.32 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™ -0
Huge buy orders going through all morning, yet someones holding the price down. Hmmmmmmmm I wonder???
I believe their to be Heavy accumulation going on here.IMO
Yeah, that's pretty much what I thought. I'm going to hold and see how high they can pump this on buyout speculations:)
I'll I can find @ the moment is just rumored/speculations of a possible buyout & that their undervalued with less than a 10M market cap BLA BLA BLA.
Anybody got anything else???
Good Question! I have no clue but I jumped in @ 0.215:) Huge volume so far with large gap up in premarket. It's been steadily dropping ever since tho.lol
Doing a little DD & Trying to find some news.
lol...Look guy's I'm not here to argue the fate of BKUNA. For me it's been very clear now for quite some time. I know Their will be no convincing you otherwise.
ABIGHAMMER you sure changed your mind pretty quickly from last week? Oh right! you bought back in today......
Posted by: ABIGHAMMER Date: Thursday, May 14, 2009 5:11:58 PM
In reply to: marayatano who wrote msg# 717 Post # of 939 [Send a link via email]
i had the same sentiment as you. soon as i got that bloomberg info, which i found for myself, after a poster alerted me, i was gone in a flash.
guess what, as i said, i made great iron on this one. you cannot be faulted for turning a profit.
i dumped my freebies as well. just too shaky, and like you say, if we're wrong, so be it. let someone else win.
"if we're wrong" Dude You thought this was done also.
Guys I do have to give you all props for trying and having the balls to "LET IT RIDE" on this one. But I'm afraid it's GAME OVER now.IMO
Their was 33 banks put into receivership in the past year. BKUNA will now be the 34th bank put into receivership. Why do some really believe it to be such a shock if this were to happen?
It's really the only logic thing to happen in such a distressed bank as BKUNA.
Why would any other financial firm in this case buyout BKUNA outside of receivership. WHY? WHY? WHY? Just wait until they are put into receivership by the FDIC and then sold off for pennies on the $1?
Yes you've probably heard all of this before, but it is very very true.
But no matter how many banks in the future threaten to go under, their will always be people betting that it won't happen. Maybe one day they will be right.
Their has been several warnings now for the street to get out. You have probably been blinded by this with people posting pipe dreams that this will be bought for 6$ to 8$ a share. Hopefully for some you will still have the chance to make the smart decision and find something else with great potential with out the ridiculous risks. Trust me their are plenty of other good buys out there right now:)
GLTA
Hey pennypauly,
I have made you an assistant on this board:) I can't be here as much as I would like sometimes + you do have plenty of valued knowledge and good DD
Feel free to add change or update IBOX at anytime.
GL & Take care,
Mervini.
Triad Guaranty Inc. (TGIC) major holders.........
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=TGIC
http://finance.aol.com/company/triad-guaranty-inc/tgic/nas/institutional-ownership
At least we know now that the street has seen the ER in a more positive way. We should continue to move up from here in coming days/weeks ahead.IMO
Look for a possible UPGRADE this week for TGIC.IMO
GLTA
Great DD! Thanks for the post:)
Thanks for your insight Pennypauly.... It sure didn't turn out they way I thought either, but I agree about next week being a good one.IMO
Thx & take care:)
Earnings out 45min now....Pretty quit trading in AH @ the moment
After Hours Trade Reporting
Pre-Market Charts | After Hours Charts
After Hours
Last: $ .95 After Hours
High: $ .98
After Hours
Volume: 7,495 After Hours
Low: $ .95
After Hours
Time (ET) After Hours
Price After Hours
Share Volume
16:49 $ .95 495
16:34 $ .97 500
16:33 $ .97 500
16:33 $ .98 500
16:33 $ .97 2,500
16:31 $ .97 1,500
16:31 $ .98 1,500
Where did you see a halt on trading....I never saw that?
What is your honest opinion Pennypauly...Can these earnings be cause for Buying or selling?
Thx
Right now it looks like this is going to drop in AH...How much is going to be the question?
Jeez, talk about a bleak outlook into the future.....
Although we are pleased with the decline in incurred losses during the first quarter, we continue to operate in historically unprecedented times and the uncertainty regarding the deepening recession, continued declining home prices, and rising unemployment rates, among other considerations, could further adversely impact our future results of operations and financial condition."
But this is worse than expected no? Projected loss was @ $2.17 a share for first Q.
It's much better than last Q's numbers, but is it good enough in the eye's of investors???
We shall see!!!
So far I don't like what I'm reading:( ouch $3.68 loss per share)
I'll have to keep on reading now....Not much trading yet in AH?
press release
May 15, 2009, 4:30 p.m. EST
Triad Guaranty Inc. Reports First Quarter Results
WINSTON-SALEM, N.C., May 15, 2009 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Triad Guaranty Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!tgic/quotes/nls/tgic (TGIC 0.97, -0.01, -1.02%) today reported a net loss for the quarter ended March 31, 2009 of $55.2 million compared to a net loss of $122.2 million for the fourth quarter of 2008 and a net loss of $150.0 million for the first quarter of 2008. The 2009 first quarter diluted loss per share was $3.68 compared to a diluted loss per share of $8.16 for the 2008 fourth quarter and $10.09 for the first quarter of 2008.
Ken Jones, President and CEO, said, "During the first quarter of 2009, risk in default continued to increase as the combination of the recession and declines in home prices impacted our insured portfolio. While there were indications during the quarter that risk in default growth could be slowing on a monthly basis, we expect the challenging environment will continue for the foreseeable future. Although the growth in risk in default during the first quarter increased slightly from the fourth quarter of 2008, our incurred losses, and net loss, were substantially lower. During the first quarter, we realized significant benefits from the stop loss structures provided by our Modified Pool contracts and we continued to recognize benefits from our lender captive reinsurance programs in the Primary business line. The increased benefits from the risk-sharing structures were the primary reason for the decline in incurred losses, but the reported losses also benefited from a change to our reserve factors to incorporate updated expectations for future rescissions of loans currently in default. As a company in run-off, our primary focus remains the efficient and effective servicing of our insured portfolio, particularly with respect to loss management. Although we are pleased with the decline in incurred losses during the first quarter, we continue to operate in historically unprecedented times and the uncertainty regarding the deepening recession, continued declining home prices, and rising unemployment rates, among other considerations, could further adversely impact our future results of operations and financial condition."
Total insurance in force declined to $60.5 billion at March 31, 2009, a 3.4% drop from December 31, 2008 and a 10.6% decline from March 31, 2008. Our persistency rates have been very high over the past year as reduced credit availability and declining home prices limited the opportunities for borrowers to refinance existing mortgages. As credit becomes more available and home prices stabilize, however, we expect that our persistency rates and the related premium revenue will be negatively affected.
Total revenues grew to $50.9 million for the first quarter of 2009 from $41.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2008 and declined from $84.3 million for the first quarter of 2008. Earned premiums were lower for the first quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2008 as compared to the first quarter of 2008, primarily due to a non-cash accrual for premium refunds of $16.9 million and $13.5 million, respectively, related to expected premium refunds on rescissions. There was no accrual for premium refunds for expected rescissions in the first quarter of 2008. Non-cash impairment losses on invested assets of $5.6 million and $18.9 million for the first quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2008, respectively, also reduced revenue in those quarters. There were no investment impairments in the first quarter of 2008.
Net losses and loss adjustment expenses were $101.6 million for the first quarter of 2009, compared to $178.1 million for the fourth quarter of 2008 and $221.3 million for the first quarter of 2008. These year-over-year and sequential declines reflect the increased benefit from captive reinsurance programs and stop loss provisions contained in our Modified Pool contracts. For the first quarter of 2009, we recognized benefits of $97.4 million from risk-sharing structures, compared with $66.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2008 and $20.1 million in the first quarter of 2008. Paid losses for the first quarter of 2009 totaled $53.9 million, which reflected ceded cash recoveries on previously paid claims of $10.2 million from captive reinsurers. Paid claims were $69.4 million for the fourth quarter of 2008, including less than $1 million of ceded paid recoveries from captive reinsurance programs, and $40.1 million for the first quarter of 2008 with no ceded paid recoveries. We anticipate that paid losses will grow substantially in future quarters due to the expiration of the public and private foreclosure moratoriums previously in place. The change in reserves of $39.6 million during the first quarter of 2009 was significantly less than the $106.1 million change in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the $174.9 million change in the first quarter of 2008, again due primarily to the benefits of risk-sharing structures. Additionally, and as noted above, we adjusted our reserve factors in the first quarter of 2009 to incorporate updated expectations for future rescissions of loans currently in default.
Expenses were up moderately for the first quarter of 2009 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2008 due primarily to increased legal costs, and down significantly compared to the first quarter of 2008 due to the significantly reduced personnel costs from our transition into run-off. In addition, we wrote off the unamortized balance of the deferred acquisition cost asset in the first quarter of 2008 and no longer have any deferred acquisition cost amortization expense, which also contributed to the lower total expenses in the first quarter of 2009 as compared to the first quarter of 2008. Due to the existence of significant net operating loss carry forwards at March 31, 2009 and the probability of continued operating losses, the tax benefit recorded for the first quarter of 2009 reflects only the positive change in the valuation allowance established for the net deferred tax asset.
On March 31, 2009, the Illinois Director of Insurance issued a corrective order affecting our main insurance subsidiary, Triad Guaranty Insurance Corporation ("Triad"). Effective no earlier than June 1, 2009, all valid claims under Triad's mortgage guaranty insurance policies will be paid 60% in cash and 40% by the creation of a deferred payment obligation ("DPO") payable to the insured. The DPO will accrue a carrying charge based on the investment yield earned by our investment portfolio. Payments of the carrying charge and the DPO will be subject to our future financial performance and will require the approval of the Illinois Director. Under U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, the DPOs, when issued, and the related accrued interest, will be recorded as liabilities.
We have updated the supplemental information for the 2009 first quarter results related to product differentiation, risk structures, additional portfolio characteristics and performance on our web site at www.triadguaranty.com. The supplemental information can be found under "Investors" and then under "Webcasts and Presentations" by the title "Supplemental Information - First Quarter 2009".
(Relevant Triad Guaranty Inc. financial and statistical information follows)
Triad Guaranty Inc.'s wholly owned subsidiary, Triad Guaranty Insurance Corporation, is a nationwide mortgage insurer pursuing a voluntary run-off of its existing in-force book of business. For more information, please visit the Company's web site at www.triadguaranty.com.
Certain of the statements contained in this release are "forward-looking statements" and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements include estimates and assumptions related to economic, competitive, regulatory, operational and legislative developments. These forward-looking statements are subject to change, uncertainty and circumstances that are, in many instances, beyond our control and they have been made based upon our current expectations and beliefs concerning future developments and their potential effect on us. Actual developments and their results could differ materially from those expected by us, depending on the outcome of a number of factors, including our ability to operate our business in run-off, the possibility of general economic and business conditions that are different than anticipated, legislative, regulatory, and other similar developments, changes in interest rates, employment rates, the housing market, the mortgage industry and the stock market, as well as the relevant factors described under "Risk Factors" and in the "Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995" in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2008 and in other reports and statements filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Forward-looking statements are based upon our current expectations and beliefs concerning future events and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect the impact of circumstances or events that arise after the date the forward-looking statements are made.
Triad Guaranty Inc.
Consolidated Statement of Operations
Three Months Ended
March 31,
(Unaudited)
2009 2008
---- ----
(Dollars in thousands
except per share amounts)
Earned premiums $44,358 $72,065
Net investment income 11,192 9,546
Net realized investment gains (losses) (4,565) 2,703
Other income 2 2
--- ---
Total revenues 50,987 84,316
Net paid claims 53,920 40,471
Change in reserves 39,628 174,561
Loss adjustment expenses 8,029 6,227
----- -----
Net losses and loss adjustment expenses 101,577 221,259
Net change in premium deficiency reserve - 15,000
Interest expense on debt 694 1,476
Policy acquisition costs - 39,416
Other operating expenses - net 9,411 14,105
----- ------
Loss before income taxes (60,695) (206,940)
Income tax benefit (5,521) (56,926)
------ -------
Net loss $(55,174) $(150,014)
======== =========
Diluted loss per share $(3.68) $(10.09)
Diluted weighted average common and common
stock equivalents outstanding (in thousands) 14,994 14,869
Triad Guaranty Inc.
Consolidated Balance Sheet
(Unaudited) (Unaudited)
March 31, December 31, March 31,
2009 2008 2008
---- ---- ----
(Dollars in thousands except per share amounts)
Assets:
Invested assets:
Fixed maturities, available
for sale, at market $904,904 $854,186 $746,380
Equity securities, available
for sale, at market 491 583 1,957
Short-term investments 13,136 40,653 11,736
------ ------ ------
918,531 895,422 760,073
Cash and cash equivalents 21,394 39,940 80,544
Prepaid federal income tax 15 15 115,598
Reinsurance recoverable 182,589 150,848 93,244
Other assets 52,833 44,309 61,565
------ ------ ------
Total assets $1,175,362 $1,130,534 $1,111,024
========== ========== ==========
Liabilities:
Losses and loss adjustment
expenses $1,262,746 $1,187,840 $547,766
Premium deficiency reserve - - 96,073
Unearned premiums 15,958 15,863 19,169
Deferred income tax - - 61,522
Long-term debt 34,532 34,529 34,522
Other liabilities 43,519 28,968 13,530
------ ------ ------
Total liabilities 1,356,755 1,267,200 772,582
Stockholders' equity:
Retained earnings (accumulated
deficit) (310,683) (255,509) 225,604
Accumulated other comprehensive
income 16,316 6,063 2,328
Other equity accounts 112,974 112,780 110,510
------- ------- -------
Total stockholders' equity
(deficit in assets) (181,393) (136,666) 338,442
-------- -------- -------
Total liabilities and
stockholders' equity $1,175,362 $1,130,534 $1,111,024
========== ========== ==========
Stockholders' equity (deficit
in assets) per share: $(11.92) $(9.01) $22.39
Common shares outstanding 15,215,378 15,161,259 15,117,733
Triad Guaranty Inc.
Consolidated Statement of Cash Flow
Three Months Ended
March 31,
(Unaudited)
2009 2008
---- ----
(Dollars in Thousands)
OPERATING ACTIVITIES
Net loss $(55,174) $(150,014)
Adjustments to reconcile net loss to net cash
provided by operating activities:
Increase in loss and unearned premium reserves 75,001 189,203
Decrease (increase) in amounts due to/from
reinsurer (31,459) 2,676
Net realized investment losses (gains) 4,565 (2,703)
Policy acquisition costs deferred - (3,173)
Amortization of policy acquisition costs - 39,416
Decrease in deferred income taxes (5,521) (56,923)
Redemption of Tax and Loss Bonds - 410
Other operating activities 15,923 7,005
------ -----
Net cash provided by operating activities 3,335 25,897
----- ------
INVESTING ACTIVITIES
Purchases of investment securities (88,391) (136,426)
Sales and maturities of investment securities 38,942 103,870
Decrease in short-term investments 27,566 43,180
Other investing activities 2 (707)
----- ----
Net cash provided by (used in) investing
activities (21,881) 9,917
------- -----
FINANCING ACTIVITIES
Repayments on credit facility - (80,000)
- -------
Net cash used in financing activities - (80,000)
------- -------
Foreign currency translation adjustment - (81)
--- ---
Net decrease in cash (18,546) (44,267)
Cash at beginning of period 39,940 124,811
------ -------
Cash at end of period $21,394 $80,544
======= =======
Triad Guaranty Inc.
Sequential Quarterly Statistical Information
(Unaudited)
Mar 31, Dec 31, Sep 30, Jun 30, Mar 31,
2009 2008 2008 2008 2008
---- ---- ---- ---- ----
(Dollars in millions unless otherwise indicated)
Insurance In Force
------------------
Primary insurance in force:
- Flow business $37,881 $39,370 $40,451 $41,645 $42,086
- Structured bulk
transactions 3,780 3,902 4,065 4,248 4,374
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Total Primary
insurance in force 41,662 43,272 44,516 45,894 46,459
Modified Pool insurance in
force 18,825 19,312 19,823 20,439 21,187
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Total insurance in
force $60,487 $62,584 $64,339 $66,333 $67,646
======= ======= ======= ======= =======
Number of insured loans:
- Primary 243,548 252,368 259,556 267,689 272,289
- Modified Pool 90,553 92,687 95,089 97,960 101,723
------ ------ ------ ------ -------
Total number of
insured loans 334,101 345,055 354,645 365,649 374,012
======= ======= ======= ======= =======
Primary net risk in force:
- Flow business $8,634 $8,972 $9,234 $9,524 $9,671
- Structured bulk
business 1,256 1,298 1,358 1,425 1,470
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Total Primary net
risk in force $9,890 $10,270 $10,592 $10,949 $11,141
====== ======= ======= ======= =======
Modified Pool risk in force
net of stop loss $812 $837 $853 $875 $903
Deductibles on modified
pool risk $72 $88 $95 $103 $108
Primary flow insurance in
force subject to captive
reinsurance arrangements 55.3% 55.1% 57.6% 57.9% 58.8%
Primary annual persistency
rate 86.9% 86.6% 85.8% 85.1% 83.3%
Dec 31, Sep 30, Jun 30, Mar 31,
2007 2007 2007 2007
---- ---- ---- ----
(Dollars in millions unless otherwise indicated)
Insurance In Force
------------------
Primary insurance in force:
- Flow business $41,840 $40,610 $38,590 $35,366
- Structured bulk transactions 4,525 4,700 4,133 2,616
----- ----- ----- -----
Total Primary insurance in
force 46,365 45,310 42,724 37,982
Modified Pool insurance in force 21,863 22,737 23,649 23,507
------ ------ ------ ------
Total insurance in force $68,228 $68,047 $66,373 $61,489
======= ======= ======= =======
Number of insured loans:
- Primary 273,798 269,681 258,163 239,326
- Modified Pool 105,109 109,133 113,725 114,711
------- ------- ------- -------
Total number of insured
loans 378,907 378,814 371,888 354,037
======= ======= ======= =======
Primary net risk in force:
- Flow business $9,642 $9,350 $8,866 $8,094
- Structured bulk business 1,525 1,583 1,373 843
----- ----- ----- ---
Total Primary net risk in
force $11,166 $10,933 $10,239 $8,937
======= ======= ======= ======
Modified Pool risk in force net of
stop loss $913 $922 $935 $933
Deductibles on modified pool risk $112 $115 $117 $114
Primary flow insurance in force
subject to captive reinsurance
arrangements 59.0% 58.0% 56.8% 57.9%
Primary annual persistency rate 81.4% 79.1% 77.7% 77.0%
Triad Guaranty Inc.
Sequential Quarterly Statistical Information (con't.)
(Unaudited)
Mar 31, Dec 31, Sep 30, Jun 30, Mar 31,
2009 2008 2008 2008 2008
---- ---- ---- ---- ----
(Dollars in millions unless otherwise indicated)
Delinquencies and
Claim Information
------------------
Total Primary
delinquent loans 28,646 24,241 19,441 16,075 13,322
- Flow business 24,292 20,644 16,456 13,710 11,576
- Bulk business 4,354 3,597 2,985 2,365 1,746
Total Modified Pool
delinquent loans 19,686 16,045 12,664 10,526 8,594
- Structured with
deductibles (1) 11,135 9,058 7,278 6,221 5,128
- Structured without
deductibles 8,551 6,987 5,386 4,305 3,466
Total Primary
delinquency rate 11.76% 9.61% 7.49% 6.01% 4.89%
Modified Pool
delinquency rate 21.74% 17.31% 13.32% 10.75% 8.45%
Primary average paid
severity ($ thousands) $53.9 $58.4 $51.3 $52.4 $42.6
- Flow business $50.2 $54.2 $49.4 $49.3 $41.4
- Bulk business $88.8 $93.6 $77.5 $90.8 $68.3
Primary direct paid
claims ($ thousands) $56,276 $64,647 $48,766 $48,187 $29,235
- Flow business $47,397 $53,698 $43,727 $41,921 $27,117
- Bulk business $8,879 $10,950 $5,040 $6,266 $2,119
Modified Pool average
paid severity
($ thousands) $59.0 $63.4 $71.7 $55.6 $65.0
Modified Pool direct
paid claims
($ thousands) $7,735 $4,943 $10,755 $20,192 $10,852
Gross Case Reserves as
percent of risk in
default (2) 40.0% 42.0% 45.4% 45.0% 40.5%
Financial Information (3)
-------------------------
Loss ratio - GAAP 229.0% 357.3% 352.1% 419.0% 307.0%
Expense ratio - GAAP 21.2% 17.7% 13.6% 39.4% 25.5%
---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Combined ratio - GAAP 250.2% 375.0% 365.7% 458.4% 332.5%
===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Risk-to-capital ratio 27.0:1 (4) 125.2:1 39.7:1 42.7:1 27.7:1
Dec 31, Sep 30, Jun 30, Mar 31,
2007 2007 2007 2007
---- ---- ---- ----
(Dollars in millions unless otherwise indicated)
Delinquencies and Claim Information
-----------------------------------
Total Primary delinquent loans 10,419 7,541 5,940 5,632
- Flow business 9,166 6,807 5,504 5,335
- Bulk business 1,253 734 436 297
Total Modified Pool delinquent loans 6,402 4,826 3,913 3,366
- Structured with deductibles (1) 4,072 3,104 2,508 2,176
- Structured without deductibles 2,330 1,722 1,405 1,190
Total Primary delinquency rate 3.81% 2.80% 2.30% 2.35%
Modified Pool delinquency rate 6.09% 4.42% 3.44% 2.93%
Primary average paid severity
($ thousands) $41.6 $36.9 $30.9 $31.3
- Flow business $40.9 $36.9 $30.9 $31.1
- Bulk business $63.9 $35.9 $30.1 $34.0
Primary direct paid claims
($ thousands) $27,012 $23,058 $16,687 $16,447
- Flow business $25,798 $22,090 $15,965 $15,122
- Bulk business $1,214 $968 $722 $1,325
Modified Pool average paid severity
($ thousands) $57.9 $41.3 $26.6 $23.7
Modified Pool direct paid claims
($ thousands) $9,328 $5,413 $1,386 $1,281
Gross Case Reserves as percent of
risk in default (2) 36.6% 32.1% 26.9% 27.3%
Financial Information (3)
-------------------------
Loss ratio - GAAP 262.1% 148.2% 60.1% 50.9%
Expense ratio - GAAP 20.8% 22.4% 21.9% 22.8%
---- ---- ---- ----
Combined ratio - GAAP 282.9% 170.6% 82.0% 73.7%
===== ===== ==== ====
Risk-to-capital ratio 20.5:1 17.8:1 16.0:1 13.8:1
(1) We record reserves in our financial statements for defaults on
contracts where the incurred losses have exceeded the amount of the
deductible.
(2) Reflects gross case reserves, which excludes IBNR and ceded reserves,
as a percent of risk in default for total primary delinquent loans
and total modified pool delinquent loans.
(3) The Loss & Expense Ratios do not reflect any impact from
establishment of Premium Deficiency Reserve.
(4) Reflects the impact of the Corrective Order issued by the Illinois
Director of Insurance effective March 31, 2009.
TRIAD GUARANTY INC.
Sequential Quarterly Financial Statements
(unaudited)
Condensed Statements of Operations
For The Quarter Ended
(Dollars in thousands)
--------------------------------------------------
Mar 31, Dec 31, Sep 30, Jun 30, Mar 31,
2009 2008 2008 2008 2008
---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Revenue:
Earned premiums $44,358 $49,840 $65,654 $69,864 $72,065
Net investment
income 11,192 10,509 10,349 9,175 9,547
Realized
investment
gains (losses) (4,565) (18,944) (6,519) (3,799) 2,703
Other income
(loss) 2 2 2 2 2
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Total revenues 50,987 41,407 69,486 75,242 84,317
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Losses and
expenses:
Net paid claims 53,920 69,372 59,357 68,263 40,471
Change in
reserves 39,628 106,080 165,958 218,568 174,561
Loss
adjustment
expenses 8,029 2,647 5,879 5,918 6,227
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Net losses and
LAE 101,577 178,099 231,194 292,749 221,259
Change in
premium deficiency
reserve - - - (15,000) 15,000
Interest
expense on debt 694 694 691 696 1,476
Amortization of DAC - - - - 39,416
Other operating
expenses 9,411 8,639 8,726 27,238 14,106
----- ----- ----- ------ ------
Total losses
and expenses 111,682 187,432 240,611 305,683 291,257
------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Income (loss)
before income taxes (60,695) (146,025) (171,125) (230,441) (206,940)
Income taxes
(benefit) (5,521) (23,818) (11,030) (31,630) (56,926)
------ ------- ------- ------- -------
Net income (loss) $(55,174) $(122,207) $(160,095) $(198,811) $(150,014)
======== ========= ========= ========= =========
Condensed Statements of Operations
For The Quarter Ended
(Dollars in thousands)
-----------------------------------
Dec 31, Sep 30, Jun 30, Mar 31,
2007 2007 2007 2007
---- ---- ---- ----
Revenue:
Earned premiums $73,130 $72,090 $69,732 $63,949
Net investment income 9,544 8,370 7,673 7,349
Realized investment gains
(losses) (29) 85 (3,867) 761
Other income (loss) 2 2 2 2
------ ------ ------ ------
Total revenues 82,647 80,547 73,540 72,061
------ ------ ------ ------
Losses and expenses:
Net paid claims 36,341 28,471 18,073 17,728
Change in reserves 150,687 76,612 23,052 14,224
Loss adjustment expenses 4,624 1,730 768 629
----- ----- --- ---
Net losses and LAE 191,652 106,813 41,893 32,581
Change in premium deficiency
reserve - - - -
Interest expense on debt 1,828 1,161 694 694
Amortization of DAC 4,637 4,567 4,670 4,624
Other operating expenses 10,895 11,686 10,716 10,330
------ ------ ------ ------
Total losses and expenses 209,012 124,227 57,973 48,229
------- ------- ------ ------
Income (loss) before income taxes (126,365) (43,680) 15,567 23,832
Income taxes (benefit) (51,406) (11,831) 3,541 6,510
------- ------- ----- -----
Net income (loss) $(74,959) $(31,849) $12,026 $17,322
======== ======== ======= =======
Condensed Balance Sheets As Of
(Dollars in thousands)
-----------------------------------------------------
Mar 31, Dec 31, Sep 30, Jun 30, Mar 31,
2009 2008 2008 2008 2008
---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Assets
Invested assets $918,531 $895,422 $890,720 $869,022 $760,073
Cash 21,394 39,940 47,818 19,669 80,544
Real estate
acquired 526 713 3,661 6,202 8,993
Deferred policy
acquisition
costs - - - - -
Prepaid federal
income tax 15 15 15 63,184 115,598
Reinsurance
recoverable 182,589 150,848 111,827 55,316 93,244
Other assets 52,307 43,596 47,915 50,405 52,572
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Total assets $1,175,362 $1,130,534 $1,101,956 $1,063,798 $1,111,024
========== ========== ========== ========== ==========
Liabilities and
stockholders'
equity
Liabilities:
Losses and
loss
adjustment
expenses $1,262,746 $1,187,840 $1,042,053 $817,262 $547,766
Premium
deficiency
reserve - - - - 96,073
Deferred
income
taxes - - 22,889 30,386 61,522
Borrowing
under credit
facility - - - - -
Long term
debt 34,532 34,529 34,527 34,527 34,522
Accrued
expenses and
other
liabilities 59,477 44,830 30,887 40,714 32,699
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Total
liabilities 1,356,755 1,267,199 1,130,356 922,889 772,582
Total
stockholders'
equity (deficit
in assets) (181,393) (136,665) (28,400) 140,909 338,442
-------- -------- ------- ------- -------
Total
liabilities and
stockholders'
equity $1,175,362 $1,130,534 $1,101,956 $1,063,798 $1,111,024
========== ========== ========== ========== ==========
Condensed Balance Sheets As Of
(Dollars in thousands)
------------------------------------
Dec 31, Sep 30, Jun 30, Mar 31,
2007 2007 2007 2007
---- ---- ---- ----
Assets
Invested assets $784,539 $794,373 $674,199 $669,160
Cash 124,811 30,617 26,711 10,429
Real estate acquired 10,860 12,566 7,923 9,765
Deferred policy
acquisition costs 36,243 35,574 35,157 35,035
Prepaid federal income tax 116,008 168,817 170,076 166,693
Reinsurance recoverable 5,815 2 1 211
Other assets 54,577 54,724 46,210 40,223
------ ------ ------ ------
Total assets $1,132,853 $1,096,673 $960,277 $931,516
========== ========== ======== ========
Liabilities and
stockholders' equity
Liabilities:
Losses and loss
adjustment expenses $359,939 $200,455 $122,061 $98,721
Premium deficiency
reserve - - - -
Deferred income taxes 123,297 170,477 177,888 180,232
Borrowing under
credit facility 80,000 80,000 - -
Long term debt 34,519 34,517 34,514 34,512
Accrued expenses and
other liabilities 36,247 39,754 31,191 30,898
------ ------ ------ ------
Total liabilities 634,002 525,203 365,654 344,363
Total stockholders' equity
(deficit in assets) 498,851 571,470 594,623 587,152
------- ------- ------- -------
Total liabilities and
stockholders' equity $1,132,853 $1,096,673 $960,277 $931,515
========== ========== ======== ========
SOURCE Triad Guaranty Inc.
http://www.triadguaranty.com
Copyright (C) 2009 PR Newswire. All rights reserved
Hmmmmm struggling now to hold above the $1 mark??? I expected a little more upwards action out of this in afternoon. Anyone know what time they will release earnings at?
Good morning/Afternoon all:) I'm all loaded up now ready for this bad boy to run.I have a feeling towards EOD we will see a nice move up.IMO
I'm sure their are plenty sitting watching and waiting for some kind of movement or sign to jump on board.IMO
GLTA
lmao, It's clear you can't have any opinion on here that's not positive or meant to pump BKUNA up. & if your new and have inquiries that might be "old news for some" you get pissed on.
I wouldn't waste your time on here ksbigger, you won't find what you might need to hear. I suggest you keep doing your own DD.
GLTY
Mervini out!!!
Aaaah come on now! Is this how you treat new guests?Why do you have to be like that? I'm sorry I didn't know their was a number of post requirements to have some valued knowledge here. I can assure you I don't know it all. If I did I wouldn't be on here, that's for sure
Just to make things clear, I'm not bashing this stock nor am I trying to convince anyone to sell. I'm just bringing a little reality to the table. It's a good thing to see all the angles/possibilities here. But I know I know, the truth can hurt sometimes. If you don't want to face it, Just ignore dude.
GLTA