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Yep, like I said in my email to you a ways back, we've just got to figure out the angle! Eitherway, I'll just sit back and watch the show!!!
I'm thinking that the coming weeks should be....entertaining...at the very least!
Maybe I'll go fly a kite tomorrow and take a break from "the days of our lives" drama.
Brez
No sweat dude, you know me.. not happy unless I'm Mach 1 pulling 8Gs......
Bring it on and don't bring it weak!
Brez
1 am soon to be 3am. we put the clocks 2 hours ahead!
So much carnage today!
I see a bright future for us. It's funny how things go, I am not selling one single share either!
Brez
Good morning Gary!
brez
Repost for morning crew...
ERHE Value Spreadsheet....
For those of you that saw it a couple of months ago, I have now updated it with some explanations.
As well I have now included a second table that calculates an estimated PPS taking into account the net net value of 9.5% as was mentioned by Meridian.
Note that you change the estimated recoverable oil reserves per block and it spits out a PPS for ERHE.
The PPS is based on two methods
1) based on a value assosiated to an Unproven or Proven recoverable estimated reserves; or
2) based on a net net 9.5% value of Price per barrel of oil for the same estimated reserve.
You will see that their is convergence in PPS between the two valuation methods
Have fun playing with it....so to speak!
File name is ERHE Value.xls on my .Mac account. Yes ClaudeAlain, Macs are better!
Brez
http://homepage.mac.com/brez63/FileSharing1.html
Cobra,
if you click on the field it actually calculates using 17.7%. But it rounds the number for display only.
If in the future % change simply insert the new value in the field and everything will be recalculated for you. The 710 was myunderstanding as of a few month ago, Ididn't feel like changing the formulas, it was close enought!
Brez
Spec I am in full agreement with you
Brez
OT: my 97 mac is still running an i never everhad an antu-virus software on it!
i recomend the new macbook pro!
brez
DISCLAMER: I sold my apple shares to buy ERHE!
bad dog those were just numbers that i incerted for trial of the formulas.
numbers are representative of actual finds.
Brez
OT: programmed in DOS worked with PC all my life, bought a MAC in 97 for the hell of it.....never looked back!
Brez
Spec, my latest valuation spreadsheet using net net of 9.5% takes us to$9.75 per share at $60/ barrel and 2Billion Barrels per blocks 1,2,3,4.
Cheers
Brez
ERHE Value Spreadsheet....
For those of you that saw it a couple of months ago, I have now updated it with some explanations.
As well I have now included a second table that calculates an estimated PPS taking into account the net net value of 9.5% as was mentioned by Meridian.
Note that you change the estimated recoverable oil reserves per block and it spits out a PPS for ERHE.
The PPS is based on two methods
1) based on a value assosiated to an Unproven or Proven recoverable estimated reserves; or
2) based on a net net 9.5% value of Price per barrel of oil for the same estimated reserve.
You will see that their is convergence in PPS between the two valuation methods
Have fun playing with it....so to speak!
File name is ERHE Value.xls on my .Mac account. Yes ClaudeAlain, Macs are better!
Brez
http://homepage.mac.com/brez63/FileSharing1.html
the pringles man....the pringles got them all runnin' in!!!
LOL
Brez
OT: Gary,
I'm sneaking in a reply, Silk says I spend too much time on the computer!!!!
Yeah I heard that too, very good. This could be a uber family happenin'.
If it all works out, how about a family reunion in Bali! Maybe a resort in Tahiti!
I must have had a preminition yesterday because I downed a tube of Pringles watching Survivor!!!!
Cheers
Brez
In time we will all be eating pringles chips?
Brez
More seriously Gary,
With rumours of straddling blocks, 800+ depth, uber find. Combine with the knowledge of varying sea bed topography and a very interesting fault line running through block 2,4,3.
My guess is...
We have a Hyperbolic paraboloid shape zone which is defined by the lenght of the fault line. The center of which lies in the proximity of the intercection of block 2 and 4 with outreaching sides (the narrow of the pringles chip) straddling block 1 and 5.
This is my guess, and I wish I had more dry powder!!!!!!!
Brez
Hi Gary my guess is.....
"A daily life example of a hyperbolic paraboloid is the shape of a Pringles potato chip."
They are serving Pringles chips at the meeting in Houston! LOL
Brez
Hyperbolic Paraboloid!
A contour plot of the hyperbolic paraboloid is shown at right. Clearly, the level curves of the surface are hyperbolas. Because of this fact, in addition to the fact that the surface has parabolic cross-sections when sliced along the plane y = x, the surface is called a hyperbolic paraboloid. It is sometimes also called a saddle surface, because a person could sit comfortably at the origin. Like the monkey saddle, it is a special case of the generalized monkey saddle.
Are we at the origin sitting comfortably ? Or is the saddle of the Hyperbolic Paraboloid shape's center at the intercection of blocks 1, 2, 4, 5?
Brez
http://www.math.hmc.edu/~gu/curves_and_surfaces/surfaces/hyp-par.html
Headline: ERHC Announces Appointment of New Directors and Reconstitution of Audit Committee
By BusinessWire 3/30/2006 5:55:18 PM
http://www.marketwatch.com/n.asp?g=5E77C809087C487993ABC2FCF8FC47B9&d=nbs
Brez
Sidewinder, because Addax is on TSX, ERHE isn't, RBC rated ADDAX as outperformed with a 12 month target price of 31$. We do not have coverage.
What does that mean to us? It means that when we get serious coverage or go to a better exchange and get serious coverage, we will have serious gains!
Brez
PS Good for your RRSPs though!!!!
OT. Lack of imagination, birth year 1963.
Brez
OT.No Dane, in Canada we don't a Naval Academy. But I do fly CF-18s for a living.
Cheers
Brez
OK Uncle!!!!
...Sponge like material, rocks, not a lake, pressurized contents, gas content.
I'll go back to what I know .... destroying targets!
Brez
PS. But the math was good (I think?)
You bet RJC!, it was more of a show of unitary values, since I was wondering this morning how many cubic feet were per barrel of oil.
Brez
Conversions for the bored.....
There is 17.8108 barrels of oil per 100 cubic feet (17.8108 b=100cft)
There is 5280 ft per mile
As an exercise (purely speculative)
1) 100 miles = 528000ft
2) 16 miles = 84480 ft
3) 800 ft
Volume = 528000 x 84480 x 800 = 35, 684, 352, 000, 000 cubic feet.
barrels of oil = 35 684 352 000 000 / 100 x 17.8108 = 6,355.6 Billions.
Therefore the size might be a little optimistic?
Having said that, if the oil does follow the fault, the volume will rack up quickly even if we are not 100 x 16 miles!
Brez
no, but I have been at Mach 1.6 @48k feet!
Brez
Is this the "office pool"? Put me down for $1.03!
Brez
Cobra, Aussie, love you like brothers.....but dudes.....buy a mac!
Brez
rheddle, I agree as well. The article was a subtle, but important mention of ERHE for the European institutional reader. This will find its way to North American shores shortly I am sure.
At least this is a good start if we ever make a jump to the AIM (Meridian's opinion only) and leave behind the BB!
Cheers
Brez
Mark you have done great. Keep doing exactly what your instincts are telling you to do. In the end, it will benefit all of us.
Brez
Re-post for those that mist it yesterday
Thanks to rheddle who purchased the Finantial times subscription to get this article.
Brez
Sao Tome - where the champagne swills in before the oil gushes out
By Dino Mahtani in São Tomé
Published: March 25 2006 02:00 | Last updated: March 25 2006 02:00
On the tarmac of a sleepy airport on a tiny tropical West African island a private jet unloads boxes of champagne - an early sign that preparations are under way for an oil boom.
The impoverished and aid-dependent archipelago state of São Tomé and Príncipe may be home to only 160,000 people, whose main exports include tourism, cocoa and phone sex lines, but it also sits on one of the world's oil exploration hotspots.
With President George W. Bush keen to diversify US energy needs away from the Middle East, São Tomé could soon become a big factor in US energy policy in the Gulf of Guinea, which already accounts for about 15 percent of US imports.
Any time soon, Chevron, the US oil giant, is expected to announce the results of the first oil well drilled in a joint development zone (JDZ) bringing São Tomé together with neighbouring Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer.
Once a disputed territory, the JDZ was born out of a negotiated settlement in 2001, splitting profits 60 per ent in favour of Nigeria and 40 per cent for São Tomé and Príncipe.
With three more contracts signed this month to develop more acreage in the JDZ, São Tomé's politicians, who contest parliamentary elections tomorrow, will be eyeing the $49m (€41m, £28m) initial payment by Chevron and its consortium last year, and the tens of millions more expected from the new contracts. São Tomé's entire national product was an estimated $70.5m last year.
But while some members of the São Toméan political elite prime themselves for a champagne uncorking frenzy, they may simultaneously be considering the damage done to the JDZ's credibility through infighting between lobbies representing different political and business interests on the island, in Nigeria, and elsewhere.
Those involved in the two JDZ licensing rounds in 2003 and 2004 say the haggling could have delayed oil production by several years.
Late last year, São Tomé's attorney-general released an unsolicited report saying the latest licensing round was "subject to serious procedural deficiencies and political manipulation". The report also alleged São Tomé had been pressured by Nigeria to sign off on licensing awards favouring certain business interests. This prompted a fierce rejection by Nigeria.
Over the past few months, three US companies that won licences under the 2004 round to operate oil blocks in the JDZ withdrew from the process after delays over signing contracts. They were replaced by China's Sinopec and Addax, a Canadian listed company with strong ties to Nigeria. The new operators have less experience in offshore drilling than the three US companies.
Binding and at the same time complicating the relationship between Nigeria and São Tomé is the role of Environmental Remediation Holding Corp (ERHC), a small and inexperienced Houston-based oil company.
In exchange for $5m in 1997, ERHC was awarded unusually favourable terms, by industry standards, in São Tomé. Its rights were renegotiated by successive São Toméan governments, but it still took shares in five of six oil blocks awarded so far in the JDZ, as well as exemptions on paying initial signature fees to São Tomé.
Emeka Offor, a Nigerian businessman at the time close to Olusegun Obasanjo, Nigerian president, acquired control of ERHC when São Tomé was in arbitration with the company, just before São Tomé and Nigeria resolved their territorial dispute to create the JDZ.
ExxonMobil, the biggest US oil producer, also acquired favourable rights in São Tomé in the late 1990s, but did not take them up in blocks where ERHC would be present. Pro-Exxon lobbies have subsequently tried to discredit the process.
Political infighting between lobbies representing oil companies may provide the biggest threat to the JDZ. "The disruptive influence is the inherited problem São Tomé has with third parties," said Hassan Tukur, a senior Nigerian foreign ministry official and once a director at the JDZ.
Even seasoned politicians admit the political system is breaking down partly through the effect of inflows of money into different campaigns reflecting divided loyalties on the island. The island has already seen six prime ministers and an unsuccessful coup since President Fradique de Menezes took office in 2001.
A law designed to limit government spending from oil receipts could be the only brake on the political system being completely dominated by cash, which would hobble the ability of any government to function equitably.
I'm ok bro, thanks for caring.
Had a great meal, Alberta beef, 6 hours ago.
Cheers
Brez
MrMxyzptlk,
Yes Canada is a much safer place than Nigeria. Thank you for pointing that out!
Isn't there a board for oil sands somewhere?
I too made uber gains with the oil sands, never bought a share, and the Alberta government gave me $2000 wealth sharing check. Now talk about gains!
Please feel free to sell your shares of ERHE come Monday, I think there is a few "political risk" takers in the crowd.
respectfully yours,
Brez
Roberts, thank you for getting the sub. to FT. Hope you didn't mind me posting your RB post here.
Once again thank you
Brez
Can't vouche for the article, it was from RB.
Brez
Things are lookin' up! First the WSJ, then the business journal now the FT. 3 articles with more to come.
But we do need those rigs in block 2 and 4 ASAP to start the real speculation of reserves. I don't think that CVX will give enough details to JDA for people to conclude that CVX's block one find is an extension of the fault line from block 2,4,3.
I hope I am wrong, but if I were CVX I would limit as much as I could the details on their find to allow buying out of smaller players in other blocks. We will soon see (I hope)
Cheers
Brez
Dadd here is the rest from rhedle on RB
Sao Tome - where the champagne swills in before the oil gushes out
By Dino Mahtani in São Tomé
Published: March 25 2006 02:00 | Last updated: March 25 2006 02:00
On the tarmac of a sleepy airport on a tiny tropical West African island a private jet unloads boxes of champagne - an early sign that preparations are under way for an oil boom.
The impoverished and aid-dependent archipelago state of São Tomé and Príncipe may be home to only 160,000 people, whose main exports include tourism, cocoa and phone sex lines, but it also sits on one of the world's oil exploration hotspots.
With President George W. Bush keen to diversify US energy needs away from the Middle East, São Tomé could soon become a big factor in US energy policy in the Gulf of Guinea, which already accounts for about 15 percent of US imports.
Any time soon, Chevron, the US oil giant, is expected to announce the results of the first oil well drilled in a joint development zone (JDZ) bringing São Tomé together with neighbouring Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer.
Once a disputed territory, the JDZ was born out of a negotiated settlement in 2001, splitting profits 60 per ent in favour of Nigeria and 40 per cent for São Tomé and Príncipe.
With three more contracts signed this month to develop more acreage in the JDZ, São Tomé's politicians, who contest parliamentary elections tomorrow, will be eyeing the $49m (€41m, £28m) initial payment by Chevron and its consortium last year, and the tens of millions more expected from the new contracts. São Tomé's entire national product was an estimated $70.5m last year.
But while some members of the São Toméan political elite prime themselves for a champagne uncorking frenzy, they may simultaneously be considering the damage done to the JDZ's credibility through infighting between lobbies representing different political and business interests on the island, in Nigeria, and elsewhere.
Those involved in the two JDZ licensing rounds in 2003 and 2004 say the haggling could have delayed oil production by several years.
Late last year, São Tomé's attorney-general released an unsolicited report saying the latest licensing round was "subject to serious procedural deficiencies and political manipulation". The report also alleged São Tomé had been pressured by Nigeria to sign off on licensing awards favouring certain business interests. This prompted a fierce rejection by Nigeria.
Over the past few months, three US companies that won licences under the 2004 round to operate oil blocks in the JDZ withdrew from the process after delays over signing contracts. They were replaced by China's Sinopec and Addax, a Canadian listed company with strong ties to Nigeria. The new operators have less experience in offshore drilling than the three US companies.
Binding and at the same time complicating the relationship between Nigeria and São Tomé is the role of Environmental Remediation Holding Corp (ERHC), a small and inexperienced Houston-based oil company.
In exchange for $5m in 1997, ERHC was awarded unusually favourable terms, by industry standards, in São Tomé. Its rights were renegotiated by successive São Toméan governments, but it still took shares in five of six oil blocks awarded so far in the JDZ, as well as exemptions on paying initial signature fees to São Tomé.
Emeka Offor, a Nigerian businessman at the time close to Olusegun Obasanjo, Nigerian president, acquired control of ERHC when São Tomé was in arbitration with the company, just before São Tomé and Nigeria resolved their territorial dispute to create the JDZ.
ExxonMobil, the biggest US oil producer, also acquired favourable rights in São Tomé in the late 1990s, but did not take them up in blocks where ERHC would be present. Pro-Exxon lobbies have subsequently tried to discredit the process.
Political infighting between lobbies representing oil companies may provide the biggest threat to the JDZ. "The disruptive influence is the inherited problem São Tomé has with third parties," said Hassan Tukur, a senior Nigerian foreign ministry official and once a director at the JDZ.
Even seasoned politicians admit the political system is breaking down partly through the effect of inflows of money into different campaigns reflecting divided loyalties on the island. The island has already seen six prime ministers and an unsuccessful coup since President Fradique de Menezes took office in 2001.
A law designed to limit government spending from oil receipts could be the only brake on the political system being completely dominated by cash, which would hobble the ability of any government to function equitably.
Great, but again it was just a platform and we will see if it will be proposed as a motion and if it accepted by all parties!
If you sold your first business in 1978, than your alias is probably based on the snake and not the missile!
Cheers
Brez
OT.Sidewinder,
I do feel like a leech sometimes, because I take so much from others and contribute very little. If this thing takes off, we'll meet at the next share holder meeting.
By the way, the new Government's platform was to make Capital Gains non-taxable for six months. If you re-invested within that six month grace period it would not be taxable. When you "cash" out it and keep it in cash for longer than 6 month it would than become taxable. This would be great.
Brez
Sidewinder,
your are correct but capital gains tax are now more favourable than in the past. Only 50% of capital gains is taxable, thus if you are in the higher tax bracket you would loose 50% of your taxable gain.
Therefore overall at worst you are looking at loosing 25% of your Capital Gains. This is still much better than the almost 50% you loose in income gains.
I am in the same boat, could not get ERHE in RRSP, therefore I have Addax in RRSP and ERHE in investment accounts.
Still the guys living in Texas, will overall pay less tax than we will in Canada. But, truthfully, my personnal goal is to pay $1 million of taxes per year!
By the way, your name is it related to the snake or the missile?
Brez