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For you and anyone else ....
I have no axe to grind here, I own stock (not a lot), and would prefer it does not go down but this news today was not good.
Just to go over the fact with you again,
1) they had a note which matured next April, it is almost gone now, it was nearly all converted the company mentions it in the August 1 release. There was no "wait a year" stuff. That is in the papers to make it resemble a real note obligation when the intention with these things is to issue them so the person giving the money can sell the stock to make their money plus a good return and the company pays no cash. There is no intention to pay cash
2- Assume you do not believe me for a second, and you are listening to this jibberish... What person/entity is going to loan this company any money when they are in big trouble and their banks have them all locked up? Only toxic lenders, ones that sell immediately even before they convert the actual shares do this.
3- There is a guy on ihub here with the name Toxic Avenger, he is an expert in this stuff , if you want let him fill you in on how it works.
4- Additional proof... The outstanding stock would not have gone from 30 million to over 90 million if the prior note was paid in cash. There is no cash paid , the notes are converted.
I certainly do not want this stock to go down and also dont want some experienced trader picking a fight with a chinese guy futzing with the stock but the facts on this note are the facts.
IF you do not believe seek experienced people, they will tell you the same thing. just asking you to reach out to people that have dealt with these notes before
No man you got it totally wrong. It is the feature where the corporation can elect to convert at any time that is what you are missing. This is just a new fangled way of making it look like a real note, they always try this stuff. There is no way cash will ever be paid for this note. They will convert and dump this stock.
These companies do not do these notes to hold paper in nearly banrkupt companies. And the other thing is you have no clue what cash they have until those financials come out.
And you have been spreading false info on the "Float". Why? you have to know this stuff or are you just low level workerbee for someone else playing with this thing.?
You cannot possibly believe this. Unbelievable.
This is NOT correct, go talk to someone that knows about these kind of notes, you are not getting the straight scoop here and people for some reason are giving you bs info. But dont believe me talk to someone experienced in how these notes work.
Dude your their cash is subject to an automatic sweep by the bank .
Second, all this powerbattles and other "due in a year" stuff is all bunk and you both know it. They make these notes look like real notes to fit the law but basically what happens is they sell the shares before they even convert them, fax over a letter and its electronically converted with the registrar. It is even in the document (some 71 pages) how this process works fast.
The first note is almost gone, yet had a year "maturity" what does that tell you? Why are you guys spreading false information and planning on manipulating this stock on Monday?
Thoughtful bunch here!
Never seen so much crap posted in my life. BS valuations, BS float info, BS info on how these convertibles work. Some of the people posting this clearly know better.
But in any case after the company chucks another spitball at their investors there is nothing like the morality crew stepping in to play games with peoples money after hyping the thing.
Dude, note 1 the company put out a release saying there is 30k? left? There will most likely be no balance DUE (if there is as i type this).
They do due dates to make them look like real notes, that is the gig in this grey area, but the money comes to the company and the CD note holders sell the stock. The note you think is due next April is almost done or done as per the announcement this week.
I will just add that you know it is in the float because the note was paid off (or mostly so) and CD note holders do not hold stocks hoping they go up, no one who knows what they are talking about would ever say that, that leaves me a bit suspect.
You are making some sense but I will tell you how it works.
The CD note holder is getting stock at a discount to the trading price.
Insiders, other investors were stranded at much higher prices that takes most of the existing float off the table. All the new people were paying fractions of a cent for shares and bought up a ton of them, but the CD note holder does not care what price as their price is always higher than what they paid for the stock.
I see what you are saying that the stock should have gone even lower, I do agree with that point. However keep in mind all this effort to press these 7 buck a share values on people (not fmv-assets by book value), and such.
If not an insider, officer, director, related party or 10% owner stock is usually in the float.
I agree with your post, a conversion does not mean they are selling which is a good point.
But the note does not go away unless conversions pay off the note. The first note was converted and sold (or at least most (220k?) of it. So that theory did not work the first time.
See how it works is they sell the stock before converting, then produce the shares.
Since they cant hold more than 4.99% they sell so they can get another 4.99%.
Obviously if a stock price is imploding someone is selling.
As to the reason this went up. existing shareholders were stranded at super high levels, the stock melted down and all the other shares were cheapies. It traded really low for a few months with good volume. When and only when the note seemed to be almost done people said "wow there is still value let here" then everyone made posts about how the note was done or almost done and everyone in a cheap price held and others bought.
The float is the outstanding less the restricted shares, usually officers/directors/ 10% owners etc. Note the CD note holder can only own 4.99% of this number at any given time, but remember once they sell it, they do not own it anymore.
Unless any stock other than the above is restricted the float before this note is roughly what the person just posted.
It is important to use common sense. The CD note holder is not going to sit around for a year to get money with a company trying to stay afloat and negotiate secured debts to stay alive.
Also you see what happened with the last note.
How anyone can try to paint this as a good thing is beyond me. The only good thing here was the fact that everyone felt the dilution from the first note was over. Even Wishful kept saying that, it was a big part of his "presentation".
How can you see "the bad stuff is over" get another not another 30-40 million shares or more possibly and say its no big deal no shares in float no one can sell for a year. Who with knowledge would say such a thing. Show me a CD note that did not sell for a year!
You are correct again!
If Not an officer, or director or related party or 10% owner the stock is not restricted unless we learn otherwise. The 4.99% keeps them under the insider guidelines so they can convert and sell. No one is going to lend money if they cant either 1- sell short or 2- bag money quickly. Especially in this case since the company has already been working with creditors to avoid being tossed in bankruptcy, no CD note holder is going to wait a year. These people doing all the talking should know this stuff.
BINGO!
Dude, what is wrong with you? The note got posted after the market close tonight. The info everyone had before tonight when it posted was that the first note was done or almost done, that is why the stock went up, fear that the worst was over and it was undervalued.
If no one has shares to sell when these notes are issued how come the price cratered with the first note? Explain it
I just said that but no one is believing me.
I cannot tell whether people just do not understand, dont read or are purposely trying to mislead people.
If the first note never put shares in the float why would the stock price go down sub penny? Come on you guys cant be buying this stuff.
Second, check out some of these posters pushing this thing, check the other boards they post the most on , scroll back and research deeply.
Seems you, and he are misinformed, I would read some of the other posts and look at what happened with the first note. You do not seem to understand how these notes work but whatever...
and the 4.99%, lets just call it about 5 to 6 million shares, they convert, they sell, walllah they no longer hold 4.99% once they sell, time for more..
The one partially bullish scenario would be if they already sold the stock short as they lent the money (and it is represented in the blow downs we saw). Anyone have short interest info?
Volume weighted price per share could be lower than you think due to high volume below 1 cent days in the 21 day period.
If the volume weight period works out to be 1 penny it would be 38 million shares
250,000/.01/.65 (,65 is the discounted purchase price).
It would be less if that price was higher of course.
Correct the shares come based on the discounted price so = more shares than if you used the current trading price.
Lots of experience with Convertible notes like this. Last company I watched went from 160 million market cap , 1.60 stock price or so and 40 million shares outstanding to .0001 stock price, 4 billion plus shares outstanding.
I think some of the analysis here is correct but you are missing the bigger picture..
That is
1- Part of the reason this started moving up was the thought (and about 100 posts by people) that the Convertible (the old one) was finally done, clearing the path for this to move up. Now we see there is a new convertible.
2- Convertibles (now that you are seeing your second one here) are like crack. Management stock is probably already diluted to almost no value so they have not much to lose (example say an owner/officer had 200 thousand shares once worth 10 bucks for 2 million, now its worth 8,000 and equity loss of value is not a big issue for insiders thus) so , trying to keep the ship afloat (no pun intended) they just keep issuing them. The problem only gets worse and worse as this activity lowers the price and interest in the stock so the amount of shares grows.
3- The moving/changing valuation picture.. Example, up the top of this board everyone saw the 7 buck and change calculation. By the time the first convertible ended it was 2.38 cents or something, and this is using book value not the correct fmv of assets less liabilities as is presented at the bottom of the info at the top of our posts. Using this info the value has dropped precipitously as well. 72 million over say a total of 140-15 million shares is about where you might be.
4- The notion that operations are turning around is somewhat tossed on its head by the need to do another convertible note like this, especially since it is only 250k. Just think about that for a second the 0/S stock created from the first note brought the os from 30 million to over 90 million probably over 100 million. Essentially that is a crazy amount of stock for so little money.
The biggest problem is the notes do not stop coming, they look at it as free money since their insider stock is already next to worthless already. Once you get by this one (the other one just ended and this popped up), you might see another one.
6 million shares may not seem like much but when they keep coming that is the problem.
A recent stock that had a nice run launched 6 million from a convertible preferred and knocked the stock from 15 cents to 5 cents, it took a month to bounce to around 7-8 cents.Now it it was a 1 and done thingy people would move on, but then another 2 million came out and there is potentially more to "hatch" from that preferred. Totally sucked the wind out of the stock.
Remember these are all "to be sold" shares, so you add these sellers in with those what had profits looking to sell and instead of a market skewing upwards you get a downward spiral (prices decline, others panic etc..).
This type of note using a loophole was never really meant to be done this way and as you know just sucks the life out of stocks that are cash starved. SO it is very rare you see a legit turnaround without the company taking the cash value away from shareholders, which is essentially what is happening. In other words why let a stock appreciate and make shareholders money when they can essentially take that appreciation for themselves by using convertible notes.
Someone was mentioning a Kyros note before this news posted, I asked about it (check my prior posts if you have that feature). Did they have a note like this before?
In any case I have a modest position I am up on but I do feel it will be a rocky road as what some people seem to forget is that even if they did not convert a single share the price could still go down just from the announcement this new problem is out there.
This is just my opinion on things having seen these at work before.
Good luck to everyone
Hi there, thanks for posting that info. I understand completely what you are talking about and also the post a few after yours with an estimated PPS valuation in the 30s, I came up with about 50 cents tops.
In any case , normally these convertible deals sell the stock before they actually convert it . Is that the case in this case? 60 million shares came out of nowhere it would be nice to know if they were sold already and the people that "own" them are not the ones sending minions to the boards here to talk the stock up. Some of the popular posters around here were previously active on other boards where stocks went up a lot then down quickly also.
The most important thing here is 1- That the conversions are over and 2- that the stock is sold and not sitting out there, thus we deal with the normal buying/selling based on some kind of valuation .
Also what is the Kyros note some people have mentioned when I researched this.
Thanks for any help
If you can check your brokerage account...
Late in the day I saw Bid .0001/.0002 ask, and just logged in again and that is what it is showing. See what you are seeing (mine is TD Ameritrade).
Or check in the am.
Your quote on your post is from August of 2015!!!
But in any case got a starter position, already up!
hi thanks for the info,
What is the source and date of this comment?
Ok good info, thanks! Good luck!
No, they actually lost money last year even when you take out the impairment loss. Cash flow was negative as well.
Basically you are buying a lottery ticket on a potential turnaround. Hoping for the TPP to go through when everyone is against it here in the US now. And hoping shipping picks up when the EU is melting down and China is still soft.
But that said there is that play which might be worth it for some.
Cant pay loans with ships dude, unless of course you get rid of them.
But those numbers are from 12/31/15, where are the March and June financials? Guess maybe you will see the real info then, at least march is late, june has until when August?
People are selling right into this pump, wonder who that might be?
yeah 14 million cash , 128 million in current liabilities.
LOL
All I am saying is that these crazy valuations are wrong. Probably 50 cents nav per share worth nothing really unless the shipping picks up. But at the current price probably still worth taking that chance.
Read the valuation posted to the top of this board. You cant use book value for ships that are worth a fraction of that.
That table above at the bottom forgot to change the outstanding shares. Its maybe 50 cents based on the value of the ships.
That table is also important for the loan covenants.
It looks like management bought the company until next May with the bank notes, that is the big news, but the valuation info here is nonsensical.
They also note in the footnotes on the financial I read that they were in violation of the covenants. IF the banks work with them and the market recovers maybe, but they lost 29 million, cant afford to lose that much for long.
Some very good work there.
But in looking this over, there is one big thing everyone seems to miss. Using your 93 million or so shares outstanding from your post and reviewing the actual valued assets less liabilities (available up above on this forum) gives you about a 50 cent value per share .
Realize up at the top it is 7 bucks , then someone mentions its 2 bucks in another spot but the real number is closer to 50 cents a share.
And that is before any additional stock dilution on the rest of that convertible note.
Thank you :) I appreciate the info. It is always good to learn things.
On a personal level I have a very minor investment here and have not added anything to it . I assumed it was going to zero when I bought. However if the volume seems to show some continued improvement and builds I might add a tiny bit here and there, again as a lottery ticket and do not recommend this stock to anyone in any form or fashion. I just like to analyze these situations.
In some other cases I have followed , actively promoted stocks often get at least one or two afterlives. While I am hoping this is such a case the odds are clearly stacked against it. The recent restructuring talk along with the volume gives this an ever so slight chance of a blip of life but that is up from the bankruptcy or zombie stock mode we were in a month ago.
I want to thank everyone here for all the insight both positive and negative, for RSH's reports and Beethovens news article which I missed.
We havent seen Kezzek (sp?) in a while but it is always good to have all sides of things and air out all the super large negatives.
Best wishes to everyone!
Posted a while back. I think people should be careful here . As I stated before this thing got hatcheted from 15 cents to 5 cents, then up a bit over 9 now down below 8 again. Stock can come out at any time from preferred stock conversions.
The main reason for caution is that you are in the middle of a huge promotion when numbers are all good and expectations are all great. Once this period slows down, if it is not moving now, it will go down then.
Also use caution as promotions not only include ads but in the past with other companies would involve people coming to boards and posting all kinds of great things to give the impression everyone is buying.
Unless these preferreds get locked up somehow I do not see this moving over 10 cents at all.
I am not familiar with the term T trades, what does that mean? After market trades? a certain exchange?
It does seem volume picked up in the last few weeks and those after market trades have kicked up. Not sure what it is all about. Thinking of testing the sporadic bid that kicks up once in a while just to see if anything can get off as a sell, probably not but who knows.
Not thinking in terms of big projects thinking of distributed solar/wind power by using the solarmills to bring power to the people and in the cases Wsti is working on in India there are places like train station platforms etc , there was a trial in place. I do agree India is not a place for installing bigger solar in most places.
A lot of good info from everyone lately. Thank you RSh, beethoven, and Toxic, i appeciate all the input pos and neg.
Just to add to my post
I think Bates played the cards in the council meeting as well as he could. With people laid off there would be motivation to give him a chance and let him re-hire and restructure
He also mentioned demand being down.
He filed an extension then went late on filings which might have slowed the conversions or stopped them . By slowed i mean they continued to sell stock they had already converted but maybe they could not convert any more.
He contacted a workout company. The workout can be good or suck who knows. But before this release the thoughts were 99% bankruptcy.
I look at the very basic factset.
1 -nothing was going to happen unless there was a workout
2- the two biggest risks were zombie land and or bankruptcy
3- The market cap based on the failed structure here is not representative of the potential market cap even for a struggling company. as you point out , the fault of Bates .
In a sense I am happy there was some news, it is still a long shot and most likely fail but things are happening at least.
Never worry about being negative. This situation is always negative and I am one to always take in all points of view that is how we grow in knowledge here.
Windstream does not have that kind of sales force of course but it does have people in India and apparently has been signing up people to work as distributors (go to facebook type windstream technologies solar into the search), then scroll down to all posts.
If Windstream did not have India up and running it would be out of business by now. Not sure what kind of deal would be put up but did you see the .0001 bid today on td and this page?
I look at things very simply. Buying at .0001 you already knew you had virtually zero chance of selling at all unless there was a workout.
The two biggest risks are bankruptcy and zombie stock for years.
It seems like in this smallest set of facts the workout is at least in play.
Even a terrible workout and reverse split would make the stock tradeable and provide an out where there is no out now.
Bates talked about another direction not sure what he meant but who knows.
I wish info was more forthcoming and of course at that meeting he might want to be more negative than the reality is because he does not want to pay that loan now. But who knows.
Keep the ideas/criticisms coming.
Well especially since they do not know if they will recover anything in an a bankruptcy anyway.
Good posts Rsh.
What I am referring to is the 1 trillion dollar solar program just announced here 1 Trillion Solar India/France
Windstream is in India. The people they are signing up there seem excited.
Just not too sure how the India thing plays out with Windstream US. Currently we own a majority but one way out is a buyout of the company by an Indian investor.
In any case I guess we should know something in the coming months, perhaps at least by year end.
Who owned this Unique pizza shop that closed?
I thought no franchises were sold?
Pizza Pizza
I have to say excellent post. I pretty much agree with everything you said. The low cost of fuel has hurt the solar companies and things do not look to get much better anytime soon.
The thing is in other countries they really have no electrical systems, like India. Some 400 million people have no power and basically burn kerosene , same with many African countries so there is still potential for a windstream like company which combines wind and solar, unlike many other solar only companies. But let us just say that opportunity is minimal at best.
The thing is with Windstream , when it had just a million or so in sales it had a market cap of 160 million. now it is 400k. IT does not take much fixing to get to a 4 million , 20 million market cap, there are companies with absolutely nothing selling for that. The dilution distorted the valuation.
Given the recent news article I would say there would at least be an attempt at avoiding bankruptcy and the workout was the thing people were waiting for. not for miracle but for survival and having a trading stock.
he mentioned a new direction,. not sure what that might be, but who knows.
In any case thanks for your thoughts. you are obviously a really intelligent person.
When you guys get back to the board..
Id like to hash out the possibilities here. Because there is some info in that release.
First off, my main worries before were
1- Bankruptcy
2- An endless period of no reporting, no workout, nothing happening.
It looks like there might be less of a chance of 1, and 2 might not happen. It appears Bates is using the lack of reporting to stop or stall conversions as someone pointed out here?
He seems to have been coached well. First they laid off some people in Indiana so he essentially has leverage there. They want to see them back to work , and he has been paying interest and maybe that will give him some time on the balloon part of the note. Second he said demand was down but maybe it is , maybe it isnt. The last reported quarter was the best quarter of sales ever, but maybe slower since then or maybe he is not counting the India operations.
In any case, there have been other times when I saw companies buy shares back at this .0001 and work with creditors (the convertible note people) to cancel other shares and just take a huge lump off of outstanding shares. I saw one decrease from 9 billion to 5 billion once.
If they cancel a bunch of shares, buy back other shares, management buys shares then restructure this could make some kind of sense.
Assuming about 4 billion shares now, the market cap is 400,000. That is nothing there are companies with no products, no sales and endless losses selling for more than that.
In any case still a long shot but at least the game is still afoot.