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Exactly. And with paper trading i had same question: would these orders really fill if they were real?
i use thinkorswim, and honestly, some of my paper orders did NOT fill right when the pps reached my target. They didn't fill until later. So i thought that was maybe realistic, but i don't know exactly how TOS's paper trading order fills work.
You could always try it for real but only with a limited amount of money. Heck if you make only $10-50 per trade it's still profit and a learning experience, and you can try compounding it.
Seems Demarco has been aggressively trying to buy time by continuing to tighten up fnma's operations, reduce its exposure to bad risk, and bring private investment by offering more bills, etc. It just looks like he knows that the better fnma is running, the closer it gets to net zero, and the more it puts pressure on politicians to not wind down the GSEs. Am i mis-reading this situation?
I asked same question the other day. Got a couple of replies. No one said flipping the pennies exactly. But I have been paper trading the penny moves a bit. It's been pretty reliable, especially if you notice that almost every day recently has been the same. Starts with a tiny bump, recedes, then stays within very narrow range. Identify the range's bottom. Don't wait too long to jump into the range because then overall range does dip once of twice during the day. But you can definitely make some small money doing that while you wait for something bigger.
Flipping isn't my forte right now and I don't have the powder to make penny profits worthwhile for me right now. But I've learned a bit by paper trading those narrow ranges over the last few weeks for sure.
Well done!
Careful with that truthful and logical stuff here or you'll be called a right winger who watches fox. Ha I say it's all in fun and it's all about making money. If you know who we're dealing with, you can make safer bets. Sounds like you know exactly who we're dealing with.
L2 can be strange here. Tons of 1.54 bids, very few 1.55 asks, and the next tick goes down to 1.53? MMs exchanging shares with each other?
Other eye opening books; "the road to serfdom" by Hayak, "The Creature From Jeckyll Island: a second look at the Federal Reserve" by Griffin, "the forgotten man; a new history of the great depression" by Amity Shlaes, "1984" by Orwell, "Mao; the unknown story" by Jung Chang & Jon Halliday, "Radical-in-Chief" by Kurtz, "Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets" by William Bonner and Lila Rajiva, and of course the classic "Economics in One Lesson" by Hazlitt (the lesson is- gvt fails to adequately consider the long term consequences of its policies, and the market does a much better job of that). All are great summer reading for your August vacations! And if you want to be better able to predict gvt and political events, and thus be a better investor, the Bonner book, the Hayak and Hazlitt books, and the Schlaes book are particularly helpful. For long term trends, "1984" has proven to be perhaps the most accurate of all of them!
You can see why I'm well aware that fnma is still speculative, despite the constitution being on our side. Gvt and banks do what they want when they want. That's all there is to it. There's a chance that the bigger picture will force the gvt to obey the constitution on this one.
My eyes are fully open. Read my past posts. I'm not an uber expert on every tiny legal or policy detail. But believe me, nothing about that taxing of bank repayments surprises me in the least. Our gvt is a brutal entity, often operating blatantly contrary to the constitution as it steals as much as it can from its people, in partnership with big banks and the Fed, and deliberately keeping its citizens as ignorant as possible so they don't know where their wealth is going. Ever see those school tests from the 1800s? Or the one recently found online from very early 1900s? College kids and grads today couldn't pass an 8th grade school test from back then. Meanwhile they're all distracted by a sycophantic and corrupt media into believing the one big story of the week is all that matters (zimmerman), and the ongoing Marxist Clown Show continues unabated, unchallenged, and mostly unnoticed.
Pre tax income? Gee that's fair isn't it? Not that it's a surprise, as $ from settlements are treated that way. But think bigger picture and you'll see that the gvt/banks colluded to dump the blame for the crisis onto Fnf, the gvt forcibly tool over fnf and violated shareholders' rights. Now courts have proven that banks are partly to blame, at least, and have forced them to payback fnf. And the gvt TAXES those repayments! Ridiculous.
another author saying it's "weird" to want property back! Remember the previous article where the author called the hedge fund's lawsuits "quixotic"? Reporters and writers are sycophantic losers who too easily follow whatever line their paymasters tell them to follow. They plant the opinions that the politicians want to be disseminated so as to hopefully influence everyone. The idea that it is weird to sue when your property has been stolen or damaged is simply an outrageous idea, and this author casually adopts that very idea and even adds a bit of snobbery towards people who believe it IS reasonable to want their property protected. Disgusting.
So senate and house committees have passed FHA reform now? I haven't done any digging yet on what the senate passed exactly, but if it's anything like what the house passed, then we might be seeing congress moving much faster on reform than we all thought possible. And that could be bad news for us. What did the senate committee pass? Corker / Warner? Hensarling bill? Reed bill?
Good question!
U buying right at open, I assume, right? Not holding from close of previous day are you?
Some have bashed Demarco, but clearly this is partly or mostly due to his leadership in stabilizing and cleaning up fnma since 2009.
Any flippers here taking advantage of the almost daily move up in the first few mins after open and the subsequent drop? Flipping is not (yet?) my area of expertise, but this pattern has been like clockwork almost.
On a related note, do we have any range traders here who are making small profits when fnma moves within its tight range all day?
Pathetic we all wait for one man's announcement every 6 weeks. It's certainly not a sign of truly free markets when the world stops to hear whether Ben will slow down the printing of new $.
Reason I asked (thanks for reply) was to further understand what interest the Fed itself might have in the specific fate of GSE reform. Or what their stance might be. Sounds like even if there is a wind down, it would be gradual, and the Fed wouldn't necessarily lose anything on all the MBS it's bought.
Hypothetically, if fnma were dissolved, what happens to the Fed's GSE agency debt securities?
We're not nuts. And it's relevant to fmcc and fnma because it hints at our prez's potential preference on gse reform. Plus it's pretty fascinating and fun to see what everyone who listened to mainstream news didn't know about him. This is jus information, not meant to be inflammatory at all. I respect differences of opinion, etc. But DD is important to do before voting also, not just for investing. So, just See the 1983 New York Socialist Scholars Conference at Cooper Union for corroboration. See the opening night guest speakers list for the 1998 Chicago play called "the love song of saul alinsky", which included Leon Despres (who helped Leon Trotsky himself during his exile!), Quentin Young, Roberta Lynch, and yes, our current prez also spoke that night. Look at the mission statement of the political party called "the new party", of which he was a member. I could go on. But what matters more is what he does in office. That can help us predict what he might do. Look at what he did to GM bond holders. Anyway, we should hope the larger picture prevents him from fully nationalizing FMCC and FNMA. And heck even if he does, we can still hope that we get reimbursed for out shares' proper value.
Go buc! Say it loud, man!
Yeah, see? Similar to what i just posted. I could definitely see this happening.
Congress is trying to sweep the gvt's illegal behavior under the rug asap. They can ram bills through when they want to. The motive here is to prevent the public from getting a better understanding of how the gvt stole peoples' property, and to allow banks to succeed in completing their mission of offloading the blame for the 2008 crisis onto fnf. Then, congress eliminates or reforms fnf in such a way as to "cement" the public's bank-and-gvt-approved understanding of 2008; "fnf were to blame".
So yes, I bet reform will take longer than reaching net zero will. But the quicker congress can "destroy the evidence" of massive gvt theft and abuse, the better (for congress and the gvt). So they have some serious motivation. We will see. I wouldn't discount entirely the possibility that congress moves quickly at some point before net zero.
We all wish. The ruling class knows. We do not. Someone knows the general plan and timing. But a very safe bet (i think) is that the decision or announcement will be made suddenly, without much notice (except to the politicians' and power players' cronies).
However, we do know that it's likely that within another quarter or so, give or take, fnma will have made payments to the treasury that come close to or exceed "net zero". That will change the climate around fnma.
You've got it right JJ! In fact, if you wanna get really macro on this, I think the current globe and its various conflicts can be understood not as various ideologies against another, and not exclusively spheres of influence and trade issues along those lines, but instead, as different branches of the Central Banks of the world bumping into conflict with each other here and there (even though they are all interconnected as well). Having read the Jeckyll Island book, I'm sure you would agree that that's not an unreasonable way of seeing the world right now.
And yes only rarely do we see a nation escape the grip of these cartels, like Iceland has. And we see how they benefit from doing so. But I assure you their escape won't last too long. These cartels are the most powerful entities on the planet. They'll get their stake back in Iceland some day, if Iceland is still attractive enough to them. All it takes is buying some more politicians there.
These media and DC snobs call lawsuits "quixotic"? As if there's something strange about trying to get restitution when your property has been stolen or damaged? As if challenging anything the gvt does is not "cool"? It'll be very interesting to see Ben testify, to see what discovery produces, and to see him testify again in the GSEs lawsuits.
Ha well wasnt that question out there once before in the form of "can the federal gvt force you by law to buy something you might not want"? We saw how that went!
But seriously, yes it can only help that this angle (the blatant illegality of gvt taking) is getting more publicity.
"On the Brink" by Henry Paulson Jr is probably the book your thinking of. Parts from it have been discussed and posted here recently.
Interesting that he describes current legislation as retroactively making the federal gvt's 2008 action on the GSEs legal. I don't think we've heard that angle on the current bills before on this board.
So then, yes the current bills do away with the GSEs as we know them. But if they also make the 2008 taking of the GSEs retroactively legal, then wouldn't that reduce the likelihood of the current shareholder lawsuits' success?
Thanks for this low float info. If you were intentionally replying to me, i'm not sure what comment of mine caused you to reply with all of that. But if it was an accident, i appreciate it, because its helpful info. I actually do like finding low float momentum trades when I can. Is what you wrote a way to program a screener? I'd like to know more about that. What does the "c" stand for?
One of my favorite topics this is! If you (anyone reading this post) haven't looked into this topic, this is an excellent book. I'm telling you, understanding what happened in 1913 and understanding what our monetary system really is will change your entire outlook on life . It is truly profound. You will never see politics, business, trade, international business, or war the same way again. Honestly, doing research on this topic has made it tough to even talk to some people, because almost nobody (amongst normal people, non traders, etc) knows the slightest about the Fed. And thus they believe in an illusion. But it's extremely fascinating stuff. I would also recommend the video you can find on youtube called "Money Masters". It was made in the 1990s so it's removed from our hyper partisan world of today. It's in multiple parts. When you learn that central banks through history have tended to fund both sides of wars, your entire sense of "history" starts to change. What happened in 1913 was nothing short of a coup. The constitution specifically states that monetary policy is to be exclusively controlled by congress. The Founders wrote that clause because they were all the direct victims of central banking and how it ruins nations by putting them into massive debt (partly by liberally funding and stoking wars). England was in debt bc of its wars with France. Thus they needed to start collecting more taxes from the colonies to pay for their wars. See the connection? The central bank of england's deal with England (to print its debt-based fiat currency in exchange for funding the rebuilding of england after its wars) was basically the direct cause of our American Revolution.
If you look at American history, you will notice that its most major events (wars, depressions, recessions, "sudden, unexpected changes in leadership) coincide with times when America was switching between bank-run currencies and citizen-run (via congress) currencies. Or when that was the main issue at hand. Anyway, it's a bit if a difficult thing to fully and intuitively grasp at first. But i feel that it's important that more people learn about this. We will never see, and i mean the sheer mechanics will not allow us to see, an end to the ridiculous and dangerous spending by DC with this current monetary policy and arrangement with the Fed. The Fed Is always happy to print more $ for DC's spending, because each dollar it prints is a debt the U.S. then owes the Fed! It's a viscous feedback loop, spend, print, and owe!
Ah they can't execute warrants as long as fnf are profitable. Hmm. And yet aren't hedge funds trying to get gvt to sell them the warrants? Why would they want to buy them if they can't be used unless fnf are unprofitable?
You're sounding like me at the dinner table! I love it!
Obit, what you really do here is potentially save people money. That's a big deal in my opinion. You're helping us here, who are informed to various degrees, and have done varying degrees of our own DD, be more in touch with our own individual risk tolerance on this ticker. Some might get out because something they think, combined with some DD or perspective you offer, makes them less willing to risk it. Some are emboldened by the same combination and decide to hold or add. Anyway, I think you are probably actually making a bit of a real difference in peoples' lives here, just by being this generous with your thoughts and research. I know reading your posts has made me look deeper into certain details, and that has informed how I plan to play this ticker. Everyone else- let's please take Obit's info and posts as lessons on "how to fish", rather than being given a fish. If we do that, we'll all get better at this, and we won't risk making posters like Obit (and others who are so helpful) think we are leaning solely on him. Man this fnma is as sticky a ticker as one wants to make it isn't it? Remind me to not get into stocks that are so political in the future! I started this as a much simpler macro play, and the layers just keep peeling back! But it should be very simple ultimately.
Obit, you're the best. Thanks for putting up with and answering our questions (mine particularly). So after reading some of that, you and I both agree it could take a few more years before FnF are actually released. I'm long so that doesn't bother me too much if it works out that way. Until then it's still a fairly speculative ticker subject to some political risk, I guess.
Great question i haven't seen answered here. Are the gvt's warrants for shares redeemable if and after fnma is deemed (by court or by some other revocation of the Aug 2012 amendment) to have "paid back" the gvt? Someone suggested that those warrants were only a security in case fnma would never recover, but that they are not executable if fannie recovers. If they are not executable, that would keep the O/S relatively small, and the valuation for fnma would be a lot larger than the $54 the numbers suggest today.
Staring us right in the face, those warrants for 79.9% of commons are the strongest reason to think gvt will not screw the commons. I am extremely skeptical about gvt and have been asking a lot of questions and citing a lot of horrific things they've done. But unless the gvt-banking complex can come up with some reform that pays the gvt more in tax revenue than it would get from keeping commons, the gvt would clearly want to execute those warrants and sell those commons at a very high pps someday.
Frankly, one might even wonder why they haven't yet. Even at say $3 that'd be a boatload if money. But then, they can craft reform in such a way as to quadruple their money if they want.
Why DeMarco insisted he won't release the GSEs until congress decides what to do with them is a question I have. After all, with DeMarco's independence from congressional control and presidential control, who is he working for? His duty as conservTor is to guide the GSEs back to profitability for the purposes of releasing them once they are profitable. They are profitable now, so why does he have to wait for congress to decide on some reform before he releases them? Just to please congress? He has no legal obligation to wait for congress, yet he does have a legal obligation to fulfill his fiduciary duty and his mission as conservator.
Could you clarify or rephrase your last paragraph if you get a chance? What plan are you referring to? Link?
I wouldn't be surprised at all if obama and watt wanted to completely and permanently nationalize the GSEs. If they somehow figure out how to not screw commons in the process, we'd be good but the nation would be screwed.
Didn't he say something like -they place a lot of small bids to help move the price? I've gotta watch that again because it was so interesting.