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That's not ironic at all. That party has been using the middle class for 8 decades now, to increase their own power and wealth. Pushing huge gvt programs that are less effective than promised, in some cases make the problem they purport to solve worse than before, end up costing usually around 12 times what they say they will cost, and funnel huge money via contracts etc to their cronies while the middle class moves lower and lower. Then those lower classes look to gvt for help, not realizing that less gvt will help them most, and the cycle continues.
This is 100% opposite of what I think. We're all here to help each other make $ so I'm not bothered by your opinion on this man at all. I'm just replying in the spirit of marveling at how large the range of opinions here are. It's pretty amazing and fun. And our opinions being different shouldn't prevent us from helping each other make more $ and learn to play this game better and better!
Unless DC makes additional comments today, yes. Prez himself got publicly engaged in the manipulation of pps yesterday, right before earnings. Who's to say he or some other idiot in DC won't make another grandstanding comment today that screws with pps again. Remember, some politicians are on vacation. If They missed the dip yesterday, they'll have to get in before earnings, so why not make another negative comment, then rush to the mobile app and press "buy"?
Yes, After Cship, Congress can dissolve. See this from a previous post here by Obiteridctum, which details this fact very well.
from:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=89507721
"Leaving the conservatorship means leaving the statutory protection from Executive and Legislative Branch interference that is lawfully established by HERA 2008 under the FHFA.
Of course, it is imagined by many that if the GSEs leave the conservatorship, that things will be hunky dory. Not so. Leaving the conservatorship at this moment, this year is a more dicey move than keeping them in the conservatorship until the Congress has its head on straight. Wisely, DeMarco has not done so and has repeatedly stated that he will not until the Congress has its head on straight. It is assumed that Watt if confirmed, he will do the same as he said he would.
Please note carefully, that if the GSEs are released from the conservatorship without sufficient operational protections provided by the FHFA and a clear legislative agenda for them that supports them and existing stockholders, there will be unwanted problems and issues.
If the GSEs are released now or later, they will immediately come under the aegis of US Congress through the GSEs federal charters. The Congress could dissolve their federal charters and Fannie and Freddie would be GSEs no more and their existence as companies maybe challenged as well. Now one knows what will happen. These companies are so huge, not one or 10 politicians knows what to do with them in detail."
We saw prez whored out big time! As informed / jaded / experienced as one might be, take a step back, let's recap, and holy cow! We just saw the Prez basically make a quickly prepared speech on the fate of one company whose stock had surged the day before. And he did it just 5 mins after the close of a day of huge dumping in reaction to false news the night before.
We watch pps action for 3-6 months here be manipulated on L2, etc. Then we see media basically writing bs they're paid to write. Then bogus bills in congress. Now, just days before earnings report, the frikn Prez himself basically got DIRECTLY INVOLVED in the price manipulation of the most profitable company on the planet right now! Even the most experienced or jaded of traders probably were a little surprised at how blatant and high-up this crap is goes today! All you new-ish traders, this should be a lesson, this whole fnma ticker story. Politicians are whores, paid to advocate for someone else. You can even pay for a Prez to suddenly make a brief speech to bolster your position in a stock! Media are the same. At this point, I almost feel like becoming a strictly fundamentals based long term trader, where I could maybe afford to ignore this kind of ridiculous lunacy and noisy media.
Why the uptrend @ 10:30am yesterday, Monday? It didn't happen on any news. Didn't happen right at open. But suddenly we were off to the races. Methinks political insiders got word of the content of prez's speech today, and about him planning on finally informing the public that he does not (by all current indications) seek an elimination of fnma and fmcc. They started buying (some big buys too at that time) and boom. Or probably big $ had advanced word of the speech as well. But it was strange wasn't it? 10:30am came and pow! Up went the GSEs! Thoughts?
I thought the gvt's warrants are only executable if fnma fails or goes bankrupt. They were taken as collateral only. If that's true, then there's no reason to think that having the warrants will itself do anything to encourage the gvt to keep fnma around. The warrants might not be too relevant to fnma's future or to the politicians' motives at this point.
"You didn't build that" is BO on capitalism. That's his view on it. Anything else he says is a lie to make him appear more moderate. His deep background belies his strident anti capitalist views.
Yes, After Cship, Congress can dissolve. See this from a previous post here by Obiteridctum, which details this fact very well.
from:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=89507721
"Leaving the conservatorship means leaving the statutory protection from Executive and Legislative Branch interference that is lawfully established by HERA 2008 under the FHFA.
Of course, it is imagined by many that if the GSEs leave the conservatorship, that things will be hunky dory. Not so. Leaving the conservatorship at this moment, this year is a more dicey move than keeping them in the conservatorship until the Congress has its head on straight. Wisely, DeMarco has not done so and has repeatedly stated that he will not until the Congress has its head on straight. It is assumed that Watt if confirmed, he will do the same as he said he would.
Please note carefully, that if the GSEs are released from the conservatorship without sufficient operational protections provided by the FHFA and a clear legislative agenda for them that supports them and existing stockholders, there will be unwanted problems and issues.
If the GSEs are released now or later, they will immediately come under the aegis of US Congress through the GSEs federal charters. The Congress could dissolve their federal charters and Fannie and Freddie would be GSEs no more and their existence as companies maybe challenged as well. Now one knows what will happen. These companies are so huge, not one or 10 politicians knows what to do with them in detail."
-And to Darell00 and Jarenwar, we're all here just to make money and have some fun with discussions. I'm long FNMA and am on your side! But your skepticism about companies being taken over by U.S. gvt is obviously not informed by recent events such as GM. You should look into that. The gvt did some very illegal things when it took over GM, including allowing them to use some illegal accounting tricks regarding their debt, which would have put others in prison for doing. Most importantly, they forcibly put bond holders back in the line for reimbursement. The gvt overturned hundreds of years of investment law in doing so. So yeah, if Google were suddenly deemed by the gvt to be TBTF, the precedent has now been set. I do NOT think that would happen! Let's be realistic. But then, we've seen gvt pushing the bounds of our imaginations now in some seriously new and harmful ways over the last 10 years or so, especially since 2008.
The big con is: socialists protect middle class. Read the history of that movement and you'll see they basically despise the middle class. Socialism was basically invented for the purpose of destroying the middle class, and when you see the effects of their policies, they can be very effective.
If you believe the prez would want to destroy the economy, then i wouldn't necessarily agree, but here would be an argument to support that opinion. The more socialists and the left can destroy the economy, the more the weak, uninformed, unemployed, and distracted-by-circus people will ironically look TO the socialists gvt for help. Thus the begins the cycle again, because the gvt has an interest in making more people dependent on them. It gives the gvt more power. Problem here is, the right side of our political system has sometimes helped that process recently. There has not been enough opposition to leftist policies (think beyond parties here, because both parties have engaged in leftist policies recently).
Once released, congress can dissolve GSEs. I believe i have that right. Some members here have hoped for fnma not to be released too soon, in fact, for that very reason. Once released from cship, the. GSEs would be subject to congress's whims, and as we saw this summer, congress's current whim is to enact some kind of wind down.
Not only from Chicago, but Hyde Park in Chicago. There's a very long tradition of a certain kind of political radicals in Hyde Park. It's like the national headquarters for the kind of political belief I'm referring to.
And yes Chicago is maybe the most corrupt city in the nation. Just keep in mind, one of Capone's gunmen, a KNOWN gunman for Capone, was the Secretary for the city's 1st Ward for a long time into the 1980s! All the judges were on his and his buddies' payroll etc. Chicago is still run by thugs. Politically, one's career will go nowhere in Chicago unless they develop deep connections to those thugs. I'm avoiding the best word to describe them for obvious reasons.
Ha whoops! I meant 10:30! Why did pps rocket up at 10:30 ET?
If you read my post, which i'm replying to here, every time i wrote 9:30 i meant 10:30. And every time i wrote 8:30 i meant 9:30.
You sound like me again! Well put! Fascinating topics. one of my favorites, especially because honestly, it can take a year or two of going over it before one really intuitively "gets" our monetary system and understands the menace it is. Anyone interested who wants to know more about our cartel-run currency, and how our monetary system was setup (unconstitutionally) to systematically suck the wealth out of a productive nation and put it into astronomical sized debt, like a parasite sucks the lifeblood out of its host, should read the book mentioned here before by some, called
"the Creature from Jeckyll Island".
The greatest and most damaging scam ever perpetrated on this once free nation. Just a teaser; when the Constitution was written, why was there no clause in it establishing a Federal Income Tax? And without an Income Tax, how did the U.S. become the leader of the technologically incredible Industrial Revolution?
Why did it rocket up at 9:33 ET? Anyone? Is it coincidence that someone at that time was busy writing that article about the prez finally making his stance known, on the same day as we finally break out of our narrow range in a big way? Coincidence that this is the first week with no congress in session? No news came out at 9:30am that i saw. Insiders and politicians started buying like crazy maybe. Something changed, and from our view, we can't see what it was. If it was momentum from Fri then it would've started before 9:30. If it was MMs why wait til 9:30? If it was algos, why 9:30? If it was simply anticipation of good earnings, why did it so suddenly pop at 9:30 And not at 8:30? If it was shorts covering, why all at once? Any thoughts? Did i miss some news or something?
I agree. Add up the news, the quotes, the bills, the numbers, the policies, the banking realities, the nominations, and the political angle, and what we get is a huge opaque fog! There's lots of conflicting info. Anyone who saw the congressional markup last month knows that sure, reforming this can get complicated. But it can be boiled down to something much simpler, and only a few sources out there are doing that for the public. Overall, this is probably an intention attempt to confuse potential retail investors, as well as an attempt by grandstanding politicians to find a way to please their donors and also look like heroes, without totally ruining a bedrock if our economy. I can't see through the fog, but I know that if the constitution stands up at all against this onslaught of thieves, then fnma holders will be in fair to great shape someday.
So true, every word.
Real question is perception amongst retail. How will most retail react to this "news" of the prez deciding he wants the GSEs wound down? Will they be as willing to jump in and buy on earnings news this time as they were last time?
If this story results in scaring them away a bit, our run might be smaller than we all hope. If retail is scared, how much can / will big money be able to push the pps up during this run?
Whoop! Some ppl were giving Reasonable some flack a few months ago! He seemed legit to me all along. Congrats Reasonable! Just wish We can all get there some day. Some people here really can teach us some helpful things.
Back in May, June some ppl on this board were givin
Your concern is totally valid. And look at the details of what the gvt did to GM and you'll see it went against literally hundreds of years of investment law and precedents. It was theft and redistribution to cronies, pure and simple.
So there is the risk that these radicals in power might pull something nasty on us. I know ppl who were in on the GM negotiations in 2009 and they said representatives from the gvt at those meetings were acting like street thugs and bullies and that everyone else looked like they had seen a ghost. No one could believe what was being forced on them. I think F and F are improving their operations so much that they're gonna make it very hard for the gvt to get a political "win" by winding them down. Let's hope that's the case.
Got the run confirmation you're looking for yet? If i recall correctly, you were gonna wait for a daily chart candle over candle to confirm. Are you sticking to that before you re-enter fnma? Thanks.
But China's econ has big problems now. That 18% number will probably drop over the next few quarters. Unless, of course, the buyers are from China's protected elite class, leaders of the one political party there. Those people will individually continue to get richer, as the ruling class always does. So maybe we'll see them buying even more U.S. houses!
Wow you nailed it! What gave you the exit signal, exactly?
Riding upper 1/2 of bollies all day! Consistently bouncing off of middle bollie. Question is; what happened at 9:30 ET to cause the rather sudden spike in volume and rise in pps at 9:33am? It's been off to the races ever since. Was it news I didn't see? A leak? Insiders?
More shares on ask but still goes up!
Might range down to 1.60 later today, as thats been the pattern. Higher vol could change that. But even if it hangs around 1.59-1.62 that'd be a green day and 1.60 would turn into support.
I hope we range up from here though, not down!
I think they're trying to prove to politicians that the idea of dissolving or winding them down is bad, because they have been aggressively fixing and improving their operations. They're trying to make it a very difficult sell politically to wind down fnma.
Those who bought $4s might be ok eventually if they have held since then. The 5s might even be ok. I'm mot sure if it'll happen soon, but if it doesn't, I think the pps will at least get close enough during this coming run for the impatient or nervous ones who bought 4s to exit with a only a small loss if they don't want to hold any longer. It's very possible that we could see $3 or $3.45 in a couple of weeks, for instance, if not $4. Good luck to all those people holding 4s and 5s!
Question. How would I go about setting alerts that I'm hoping will notify me of a dump in progress? I have alerts for volume and price thresholds etc. But there has to be some clever way of setting an alert for, say, a fast price drop of a certain amount in a certain timespan (maybe 5 mins). I'd probably have to combine alerts to get this affect. But I can't be at my computer or on my cell every minute of the day, and if a dump happens, I'd like to know about it (regardless of any stop losses I might have set). Any ideas? There's no "dump alert" I know about.
I've got a tiny bit of powder now. Last time around I could've managed my position sizing much better. I had little powder over the last 1.5 months or so, and didn't add much to my position over that time. Now I've got a little powder and in an attempt to be more disciplined, I haven't used it yet. But it is very tempting to add to my fnma right now. If I do, i'd be going way outside of my own rules!
Maybe I'll just flip the start of the run with my small powder. Kinda like having one more cookie. I'm sure I'm not the only one struggling with their rules on this ticker!
Sounds like fnma will increase its efficiency with this. To be honest, that's the gist of what i gathered from that article. I didn't get much more from it because the kinds of details it dealt with are not familiar to me!
But more efficiency means a lower bottom line, and more effectiveness. Seriously, info like that and the general tightening up of the fnma ship, and the increasing private sector involvement via fnma bills....all of that paints a picture of a company that is racing ahead while the gvt lags behind in making a decision on its fate. Let's hope fnma and its managers just keep improving the company's operations as DC fights about its fate. Once they decide, they might just look up and discover that fnma is 3 times better than it ever was, so why mess with it?
Great to see you here again, Z! Since you're detail oriented, allow me to be point out a possible oversight in your post, or a typo. If it goes up by 500%, then to find that resulting price you'd have to multiply it by 6, not 5. I could be missing something, but of a stock goes up by 100%, then it has doubled in price (orig price x 2). So that first 100% is equal to a doubling. then to get from there up to 500%, you'd multiply the doubled price by 5. So really you just multiply the starting price by 6 to get 500%. This means our 1.54 rising by 500% would be $9.24. And if it rose by 600% it'd be $10.78.
If we use your range of 480-650%, based on the prior runs, we'd have a pps range of $8.93-$11.55
If i've misinterpreted your post, my apologies. But if your percentages are good, then i think my price ranges are good based on them.
One might think it'd be easier for all parties to brush the 2008 theft under the rug by simply having congress dissolve the GSEs and replace them with something else.
I don't want that to happen! But I don't see why keeping the GSEs around would help them sweep it all under the rug.
Look at RSI. It's interesting that the two runs' pps movement / shape is almost identical, yet the RSI is not the same during the 2 runs. The RSI is especially different on the downside of the peak pps. I guess it'll be unwise or difficult to rely only on RSI for an exit signal during any coming run!
Just curious why you think Ben's testimony could be rocket fuel for fnma pps. I don't disagree necessarily. But I assume his testimony will consist of him hammering on his point that the gvt taking over fnf was necessary to prevent the earth from exploding, etc. And he might be forced to describe some of the unconstitutional behavior in some detail.
So, is it your opinion that such testimony will serve to boost the likelihood of the current shareholder lawsuits' eventual success against treasury, and thus also boost fnma pps? I would agree with that, but it would boost longs' hopes mostly. And I can't think of any other reason Bernanke's testimony might directly boos fnma and fmcc pps.
Maybe if enough nasty details come out, the political will to dissolve the GSEs will diminish, as the public realizes that 2008 wasn't fnma's fault. But then, we know the public doesn't care about these arcane things much. They like beer summits and glamour. Anyway, does your view on Ben's testimony match mine at all?
I guess it's no news flash but it seems the U.S. economy has become more dependent on credit than production. And looking around, it seems that the powers that be are trying very hard to seduce people into using more credit to buy things (including houses). In a jobless "recovery" as we are generally experiencing, with part time jobs increasing while full time jobs growth come nowhere close to replacement value every month, how are people going to be making their credit payments if they get seduced? How will they pay these mortgages that have gotten a little easier to get in the last 1.5 yrs or so?
Thanks Flip for your candidness. Not to pry, but it helps us smaller traders stay realistic whenever we hear this info from more experienced people. So if you're flipping most of your 100k, then assuming you've got say 65k in the market at any given time, and you're flipping for about 3k profit per day, it sounds like you're steadily taking fairly small to modest % gains each day, right? I'll take a stab and guess that you're mostly a momentum trader?
Do you close out all positions every day, or just mix swing and day trading approaches however you want? Thanks again.
Who here has one foot in preferreds? And why did you choose the particular preferred shares you chose? Thanks.
When it does pass the house pps
Will prob drop, but since there's no chance it would pass senate, some will be confident in holding even then.