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Anybody know what the deal is with the 10yr and 30yr treasuries. They both seemed to have stopped trading about 10am for looks like about 10 mins. and then ...
looks like its the ism data ...
10:04 ET Dow bounces 40 pts on ISM data
Awkward the market going up eehh. Shouldn't be happening I guess but guess what ....it is.
or not ...
in part because everyone loves the fiction that "a recession is a recession is a recession". this recession is not like any of the other post-war recessions: its caused by the pullback in business supending, and the recovery that we've had, such as it is, has been sustained by consumer spending. so i agree with you 100%: saying "its like 1992 ..." is meaningless; they might both be called recessions, and have some similar features, but the causes are very different.
gee, didn't take very long for everyone to turn bearish again.
What's wrong with buying until resistance is hit? It's like free money to some folks. There's good business sense in buying all the way to that line today.
well, you have more faith in technicals and timing than i do ... and i know i suck at timing anyway.
what's wrong? hmm. well, nothing *wrong* per se. i'll go in during the day and buy qqq or something. but for me to buy and hold for a longer period, i have to know *why* i'm doing it. otherwise i just act more risk averse. (now when i was shorting over the last couple years, i was VERY averse to risk ... cuz if it went up, it would always come back down eventually ... and i knew a good *reason* for that.)
Punkle, Ms Market has left him no choice. {GGG}
sigh, but 'tis not true. the last candle is a work in progress ...
It took me a long time, but I've learned not to use the word "should", in regards to investing and most everything else in life.
hrm. well, i suppose if you're a nimble trader, like some of the guys on this board, then you can stop there and carry on. for me, though, i do say things like this. and to me it means: i don't understand what's driving this market. which, to me, is a big yellow caution, and tells me to step aside and wait for my opportunities.
well, actually, that was a few months ago. now, with a better understanding of the liquidity sloshing around and revived memories of 1999, i think i do understand it a bit better, and yes, could say "okay, under these circumstances, it should be doing this, because it did it once before." however, in this case, its that latter that flashes the big yellow caution.
> Basically, I don't think the COMP 1600 level will fail until we
> exhaust buying and find the true overhead resistance level.
hmm. but today was a whole lot of program trading, right? (well, to me, that's what the charts say, everyone following the linear regression line from yesterday's rally very neatly, and brks did its requisite 0.70 program that its done on at least 4 other occaisons in the past). and 1.8B shares on the nazdog on a "light trading day" when everyone is on vacation ...
can't think of a one. but then pmcs is shoring up its balance sheet with mips processors, though very low margin. nevertheless, i guess it'll happen at some point: i mean, if you just look at pmcs vs amcc and the overlap in their product lines, and then factor in the debt of pmcs vs the cash of amcc, then unless we get a return to 1999 in more than just bubblicious stock prices, somebody is gonna get hurt.
additional "negative" for pmcs is how mgmt is repricing their own options. though, who knows, maybe the market will like this :)
http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/030701/1057072320_1.html
re pmcs: one of my favorites. lately, seems to be acting relatively stronger than vtss, brcm etc, although that might just mean there's more correction due on the downside. (oddly, it *seems* like the real damage that was done to vtss last week came on a pmcs downgrade. go figger.)
> The NDX futures close at 3:15 (Central time), giving them an
> extra 15 minutes of trading - like the QQQ's.
ah, okay. i knew about 3:15, apparently i missed the CST part :)
i suppose i never really looked at the relation here on the close, so what i find curious is probably just common ...
oh a different note: does anyone have any idea how the weekend/holiday might play into the action over the next two days? so far we've sold off into the weekend for the last three weeks at least ...
curious observation. maybe one of you could explain this. globex shows ndx futures now at 1227.00, up +4.00. as i've always assumed, that would mean futures closed at 1223. but the market closed at 1217, just off a high of 1219. now as i understand this, the futures market as quoted her closes before 4. so does this mean that futures were trading significantly ahead of the market when they closed, and that the market never even caught up to them?
(just curious, i've never really seen such a big discrepency before.)
yah, i covered my klic this a.m. also. should have covered brks then as well ... oh well.
well, here's shaeffer's take on this - actually, 'before the fact': bear trap -
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/sentiment/printout.asp?ID=7994
whoever was talking about klic yesterday ...
take a look at brks today: last 2 mins on < 12k shares. sigh
TJ: California has several options of course.
laff. well i'm a californian. and i like those ideas! maybe the guys in sacramento should just get the cfo from cisco to bring his team over to redo their books ...
If California is the world's 6th largest economy, what are the implications of it's bankruptcy??...
a new series of sally struthers commercials from orange county?
OT Dr. Who fans,
the bbc did a remake of "Shada", the douglas adams episode with tom baker that was never completed because of a bbc strike. voice only, or voice + flash, its sitting here
http://www.bbc.co.uk/cult/doctorwho/shada/index.shtml
featuring the 8th doctor, paul mcgann.
> With key resistance around XAU=79 and HUI=155, [...]
well, augieboo is the expert of trendlines the way that LG draws them (perhaps he'll indulge me here) but it would seem that the HUI could pull back even further, say to 130, leaving its uptrend (i think they say, rising support line) from 2001 intact.
since i don't have an annotated chart of my own, here's someone else's. :-P
http://trending123.com/stocks/chart_of__hui.htm
... given the relative strength of the market vs. the strength of the Fed.
actually, i posted a link and excerpt from a story in the wsj last week that pretty much said exactly this: that the fed has studied this and realizes that they can't do this in today's bond market.
Just a couple of their usual useful idiots ... I mean, "reporters," and/or talking head "guest experts."
sigh. i miss the days when i could actually watch that and believe i was getting useful information. alas, its like ... lost innocence. ... sigh.
whoa. then it must be true. it wasn't kudlow and lamer, was it?
Am I missing something or is this divergence somewhat significant?
in spite of the fact that i'm somewhat boolish on gold, i'll note the following: the rally on the xau and hui was coincident with the rally everywhere else, driven by liquidity. e.g. techs and internets rallied without motivation from real improving fundamentals, so its not in itself too surprising that hui could do that also .... not that that explains it, but it could.
i think i'm using too many italics now.
you'd better watch your ass(ets).
me? i'm a bool. moo.
oops. appy polly loggies.
I think Greenspan has the intellect to be intellectually honest
i don't even see how you guys can discuss the "intellectual honesty" of greenspan. his words, his actions, his analyses are things that can move the markets. he knows this. so we must assume that they're things crafted for public consumption. e.g. he can't say, "yes, there's a housing bubble", because he could precipitate unwinding of that bubble in a potentially catastrophic way.
i dunno. perhaps the guy is doing the best he can. there's only so much that monetary policy can do to unravel the imbalances of the 90's. at some point, politicians will have to take some responsibility. (is that oxymoronic?)
whoa. i would have reversed those ...
I've noted that some insiders are pretty sharp, others are dullards. Perhaps record insider selling isn't as negative as it may seem.
in which category do you put bill gates and steve balmer?
OT When a woman telemarketer calls, I ask her what she is wearing, etc.
hey, that's very c00l. are you sure it doesn't work with men also? (i think it would probably work better, actually ...)
"Those who have studied such things says this apparent incongruity occurs in the early stages of bull markets."
perhaps, but didn't this also occur in the late stages of the last bull market, consistent with abelson's observations?
along the same lines, here's someone that i don't read very often, but his columns are now a bit more prominent, now that yahoo has redesigned its introductory finance link.
http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/030627/10349_1.html
The momentum stocks are well above the lines after big moves, and they might push them up a bit more these last few days. Most of the momentum stocks are on the recent scrolling list not because of their so-called fundamentals, but because they are being "gamed" well beyond their current worth and have been pushed higher as the quarter comes to an end. Many of these stocks are already up as three- or four-baggers since the October lows. Who's kidding who? And many of the empty suits are debating whether or not this is a bull market. Don't tell that to the gang that has been riding on MERQ, for instance, from 15 to 44, or USAI from 15 to 40, etc., and many others like it. It's about the moves and where the game is being played, not just whether or not an Alcoa (NYSE:AA - News) or a Dupont (NYSE:DD - News), which are classic smokestacks, are in motion depicting an economic recovery. Perception makes the market move.
In addition to regular institutional buyers, you have the hedge funds running them up, fronting the institutions. Then you have those players who know the current fundamentals aren't even close to the prices these stocks are trading at, so they jump on the short side, and that fuels higher prices if the buyers remain dominant. The result is a spiral up as we have seen since the October and March lows. Many of these very same stocks can easily become short setups if the market cycles down after the first few days of July through August. They all have big air pockets below current prices, and it could get crowded at the exits trying to cash in some of the funny money profits that these stocks have built in to current prices.
Don't know what to make of this.
well the period you're looking at is pretty much monotonically increasing everywhere, and then monotically decreasing, and then this fast, relentless markup in prices. for comparision, you'd probably need a period where just about everything was decreasing in price for over a year before a significant and broad rally occurred. otherwise, its just pretty much saying that prices are significantly higher now than they were last year, where the number is telling you something about the breadth of the rally ...
> My take is we're in an up impulse wave searching for 4th-wave
> bottom (if Onischka's right, we got that Wednesday) and the
> down turn that follows will be a much milder A/B/C correction.
hmm. well if i remember right, and keep the big picture in mind from his many posts - some of which i don't read, and when i do, only in broken web-translated english - from mid-week last week he was still looking for us to continue to 1170 before beginning the next leg up to 1300+. so he's one of the few i've read who's saying that we're not in for a major correction and we're not topping, but ready to put in another leg on the existing rally ...
i think.
> Look at Onischka's call for today
surprisingly, onishchka has been the best prognosticator during this rally. surprisingly, i say, cuz personally i don't see a whole lot of validity in e-waves.
> in France, where the watchword -- in the media and among people
> they met -- is "DEPRESSION".
they don't import american tv anymore? or is someone just translating "recovery" incorrectly? :-P
augieboo,
yah, it appears so:
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmesof.htm
eyeballing it, it looks like adding the minis to the big contracts would make that nazdaq pic a bit more reasonable, skew the big traders further long by ~8k (equivalent) and the small further short by ~12k. in that case, probably nothing to write home about.
on the other hand, on the s&p, it would just exaggerate the relative positions. but no chart for what that looks like historically ...
re COT on s&p and mini: well this is what i saw
http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/cot.htm
nasdaq is just plain scarey ...
> The guys on the white horses ...
well, looks like they had only pocket change to play with today. they supported stuff like klic, brks, etc ... to my chagrin. well, not SO much, since i shorted brks @ 10.81. but still, would have preferred a bit more bloodshed.
hmmm. not sure where the optimism comes from. if pmcs is any kind of canary for overpriced tech stocks, i'd say, look out below.
but lets see if the guys on the white horses ride in here ....
hmm. well call me paranoid but schwab seems to be in crash mode :) i.e. not updating data on account homepages or quotes since 2:30. last time this happened was right after 9/11 ... though then it was just index quotes that were frozen for days.
so about this 2:22 thing that comes up here often. i read somewhere (over on prudentbear, actually), that 2:20 is about the time when floor traders get a first indication of order imbalances. is this true? and is this why you guys all tend to talk about this?
re klic
i'm trying. hard to get shares through schwab ...
[correction]
okay. not that hard. was able to get klic and brks. hard to get pmcs.