is loving all the pm heads up BEFORE they run- keep em coming!
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Filled at 2:55pm
Oh my GOODNESS! She was up to $2.09- Look what can happen over lunch :)
$2.01 BABY!!! OH YEAH!
$1.95 - Could $2 be TODAY?!?!
1.93!!!!!!!!!
Trying to add to my position 3000 more at .068 --- come on somebody, let em go! ;)
1.87 over 10% TODAY TOO!
I was in when it went up over $3 last time and it happened in like a day or something from a little over $2. It was crazy! - I'm READY!
This stock is such a blast- When she gets her legs moving, she runs! You think $2 by the end of the week?
Look at this thing go- almost 10% up yesterday and then over 5% so far today!
Thanks a lot! You're GREAT!
I received a 'page not available'. I didn't see the new one offered on the skinsfootwear.com site either. What does it contain? THANKS!
We all have to do what we have to do so we can sleep at night. Good luck to you!
Thanks a lot! Looking forward to hearing back :)
Hows it going Billy? Hows business?
Are you still here?
LONG AND STRONG HERE
HERE WE GO!!!
I didn't, don't really know what to ask specifically besides "What the heck is going on here?"
will you call and let us/me know or would someone/everyone post which questions I should ask and I'll call myself??? Let me know!
ALL INTERESTED PARTIES--- FEEDBACK PLEASE!
Thanks :)
just filled at .18 :(
I wrote the company--
" Hello, it has been quite some time since investors have heard any progress related to AQGC. Since then, stock prices have plummeted. I, along with other investors are anxiously awaiting any new information. Would you please take a moment to respond so I can share some news or would you please forward this on to someone who can?
Thank-you,
XXXXXXX XXXXXXX
Shareholder"
Here is the reply
" Please give me a call for a progress update on Aquarian Coal Corp.
Ryan
(905) 332 4978"
I wrote to andrew@aquariancoal.com and also ian@aquariancoal.com and received the reply from ryanjdriscoll@msn.com
Could someone that is more experienced than I please call and post an update. I'm not sure the right questions to ask. THANKS!
Been off for the last month or so moving, but now getting caught up, so excuse the delay in posting this....
I just wanted to comment on how appreciative I am to see you finding positive things to post. :)
The best board idea yet! I agree with you! THE BEST DAY EVER! :) Way to go!
A Profitable Pill Hidden from Mainstream Medicine
By Greg Guenthner
April 20, 2007
Dear Penny Sleuth Reader,
I recently read that the top two things baby boomers are worried about are money for retirement and living long enough to see their grandchildren grow. If you’re like most people, I'm sure you've asked yourself this question at some point in your life...
What's the point of reaching the pinnacle of financial freedom if you can't live long enough to see your kids and grandkids grow?
This is why I'd like you to consider the following report. It's not something I'm going to make a habit of talking about, but I think it's important enough to bring it up to you...so you can make the decision for yourself.
Best,
Gunner
Special Report: Greatest New Medicines of Our Time
Health Sciences Institute
"Accidental" Breakthrough:
Miracle-Pill
Halts Disease
Stop living in fear of flu season and start enjoying every day of every season
Fight off crippling arthritis inflammation and live the active pain-free life you deserve
Halt degenerative disorders like multiple sclerosis and macular degeneration
Heal, recover and prevent illness, pain and injury without drugs or side effects
Sound too good to be true?
We thought so too until we learned the truth that we're now sharing for the first time in this special report.
Dear Friend of Natural Healing:
The greatest new medicines of our time are being hidden from you and the people you love. They are buried under mountains of red tape and steeped in bureaucracy -- held up by rules and guidelines cleverly worded to sound like they're in your best interest.
But while you or someone you love suffers through an 'incurable' disease, most of these incredible natural miracles will be hidden from the medical mainstream for years -- others will remain buried forever.
But there is an underground network
of 'insiders' who think you deserve
to hear about them NOW
Doctors, scientists and researchers of natural medicine are discovering new, lifesaving medicines every day.
But, since Big Pharma, with their big wallet, isn't spending millions -- even billions -- to buy them a speedy FDA approval, they stay buried in silence.
But they can't silence all 90,000 of us!
We're Health Sciences Institute (HSI) -- an international network of over 90,000 doctors, researchers and health-conscious consumers like you who support natural medicine.
In this privately circulated report, we're cutting through the red tape -- completely side-stepping the bureaucracy -- so you don't have to wait to hear about the greatest new medicines of our time...
And we've just granted you
a Guest Membership...
So that you and your loved ones can freely
share in these miracles right now...
IN THIS SPECIAL ANNUAL AWARDS ISSUE:
Alternative doctors dare not publish their
shocking new findings about how to...
Knock out killer flu in 8 hours with a secret antidote developed for the military
Turn your body into an impenetrable fortress with this miraculous single-nutrient discovery
Destroy 'end stage' cancers with a substance that even healed Chernobyl victims
End hypertension for keeps with the clinically proven 'tuna pill'
Revive damaged lungs with DNA drops that boost breathing capacity 90%
Beat any prostate problem, benign or malignant, with the incredible 'perfect cure'
Boost bone density 27% by taking a lot less calcium
Reverse diabetic damage with this rare new vitamin discovery
But you're holding the lifesaving proof they can't print!
Dear Friend of Natural Medicine:
It might outrage you to know that the secrets to curing many of today's most deadly and debilitating diseases -- everything from cancer to arthritis -- have existed for years.
So, why hasn't your doctor told you about them?!
Because even he hasn't heard about them yet. They're buried under the Everest-sized mountain of red tape the FDA calls their approval process. What's more, the FDA has a secret 'back door' to their approvals department...but they only give out the 'secret knock'
to the players with the biggest wallets. So, naturally, Big Daddy Pharma gets to cut in line -- fast-tracking their newest drugs, side-effects and all, to the top of the approval lists. Leaving some of the most powerful natural cures waiting in line, indefinitely, while you and the people you love continue to suffer.
But now, you don't have to wait to learn about these powerful new medicines!
We're Health Sciences Institute (HSI) -- alternative medicine's first and foremost global information network. We're 90,000 enlightened doctors, researchers and health-conscious people like you, and...
We cut right through all that red tape.
In fact, we've been providing healthy, savvy people like you, with breakthrough medical news for more than 10 years. Plus, NO ONE has us under their financial thumb. So you can rest assured that we're both impartial and trusted throughout the natural healing community... So today's most gifted researchers are constantly telling us what they can't tell you. WANT PROOF? Just keep turning the pages of this special awards issue. You're going to see what's really new and exciting, that could heal your loved ones' worst health nightmares right now. In nearly all cases...
You haven't seen these award-winning, lifesaving 'underground cures'
mentioned anywhere else...
But you will see them hailed years from now, as other news outlets gradually pick up on them. Normally, these 'forbidden' breakthroughs are seen by HSI Members only -- in our privately circulated Members Alerts and daily e-mail updates. But because you're such a strong supporter of natural medicine, we've granted you a temporary Guest Membership. So that you and your loved ones can start sharing in these miracles right now. Please use this privilege immediately. The key to healing today's most deadly health threats may be, literally, in the palms of your hand -- you could be holding the answers! Just page through the life-giving truth about the new...
Single-nutrient breakthrough that halts macular degeneration, heals arthritis and even prevents the common cold... Strip away arterial plaque with this silkworm secret -- incredible results confirmed by ultrasound scans... Treat periodontitis with an amazing mouthwash that is now being studied by dental schools... Iron out facial wrinkles -- even rejuvenate your elbows and heels -- in as little as 2 weeks with 'lemonade'
Give yourself 52% more energy with this, clinically proven, anti-fatigue compound...
Then please be our guest and accept HSI's brand-new, uncensored, 12-volume library of TODAY'S GREATEST ALTERNATIVE MEDICINES...FREE!
It contains full details about all the breakthroughs honored in this special awards issue, plus many more. How they work. Recommended dosages. Where to get them. And it's just the first of many life-giving benefits you'll receive as a Member. Simply click the "Subscribe Now" button to register as a permanent Member.
Do let us hear from you soon, so we can tell you more about...
Welcome, Guest Member! Please tell your loved ones immediately about
The Greatest New Medicines of Our Time WHY YOU'VE NEVER HEARD OF THEM: HSI sells no medicines, so we report on a much wider range of new treatments. Because we're trusted worldwide, we also receive the earliest word. Most importantly, doctors today can't publish all the lifesaving facts about their own natural therapies. For all these reasons, we urge you to brief your spouse, parents, children and friends about these true new health miracles right now.
Editors' Choice Awards
These new medicines have everything going for them. Unbeatable effectiveness, wonderful safety, and an impressive track record of conquering...
- Back, muscle and joint pain...
- Multiple sclerosis...
- Breast cancer...
- High blood pressure...
- Obstructed lungs...
- Fatigue, stress and 'brain fog'...
- Sexual dissatisfaction...
Members' Choice Awards
We're constantly getting feedback from our 90,000 Members about which new medicines work most reliably. These are their overwhelming favorites for beating...
- Crippling arthritis inflammation...
- Leukemia and other cancers...
- Periodontal disease...
- Aging, wrinkled skin...
Cutting-Edge Awards
These medicines are too astonishing not to publish the early research about them. They could save a loved one when all else failed, and they're available right now to overcome...
- Macular degeneration...
- Cancer's kryptonite...
- Hardened arteries...
- Advanced osteoporosis...
- Prostate cancer and benign swelling...
- Diabetes II...
Under $10 Awards
Some of the greatest new medicines we've uncovered are also wonderfully affordable, costing literally pennies a day. It would be a crime not to honor treatments that so easily defeat...
- Congestive heart failure...
- Shingles...
- Cataracts and other vision problems...
Then claim all the lifesaving details in your 12 FREE GIFTS OF HEALTH!
Hurry! Click "Subscribe Now" to get started today!
People are claiming that this
'accidental' discovery might be
The one-pill-solution to
ending all disease...
Plus:
Reduce crippling arthritis
Increase heart-pumping capacity
Super-charge the body's own healing ability
Stop the common cold
When we first heard the news about this incredible discovery, our 'bull-detector' reading was off the charts. The very idea of one pill a day that could cure almost every disease was beyond outrageous.
But we spoke to the people whose lives were actually changed by this miracle supplement, and it may very well be the real deal! Check out their stories and see for yourself:
In 1987, Mark J. and his twin sister were both diagnosed with macular degeneration. Today, she has lost about 80% of her vision, while Mark's vision has remained virtually unchanged since the diagnosis...
Twelve years ago, John B. had stints put in his heart after complaining of chest pains. But after last year's visit to his cardiologist, Mike was astounded to learn that his heart-pumping capacity had increased by a remarkable 12%....
For over ten years, Pablo R. could barely use either of his hands -- virtually crippled by arthritis. But today, Pablo has regained full use of his hands. He can work out on a regular basis and the inflammation has been reduced to the point that he can slide his wedding ring on and has started working out again...
On the surface, these are three very different people with equally different stories. But there is one incredible link that ties these three miraculous stories of recovery together.
And not only is it as close to magic as you can get without a top hat and a little white rabbit, but as a new HSI Member, I'll show you how you can be one of the first to put this 100% natural piece of 'magic' to work for you.
The most incredible
breakthrough ever
discovered by accident
To get the full story, you have to go back to 1943.
Not in a lab, but into the early days of a small, family-owned factory in Cedar Rapids, Iowa that sold animal feed additives.
And for 60 years, that's all the company did. Until, in 2003, a unique set of complaints started to flow through the human resources department...
No one in the factory was using their sick days...
Because no one ever seemed to get sick, their five annual sick days were just going to waste. But here was something even more strange: the 'suits' over in the corporate offices were using their sick days on a regular basis. It was just the factory workers staying unusually healthy.
It was also around that time that Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Paul Faganel realized that the company's health insurance premiums hadn't budged in years, while other businesses were seeing annual jumps of 20 or 30 percent.
Something about the factory was keeping the employees from getting sick...and Paul decided it was high-time he figured out what it was.
Read On...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Nothing in this e-mail should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice.We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation.Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.
© 2007 Agora Financial, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the World Wide Web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Agora Financial, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21201.
How to Find Positive Returns in a Declining U.S. Soda Industry
By Craig Walters
April 20, 2007
It’s a great time to be a Coca-Cola (KO: NYSE) investor.
The soda-producing Warren Buffett mainstay has been performing beautifully lately. First quarter 2007 results were just released, with earnings beating what Wall Street had modeled and sales outdoing first quarter of last year.
Give the credit to new products, like Coke Zero, and international markets.
But there’s a black cloud hanging over Coke… It’s declining soda sales in North America.
In fact, 1Q07 brought a 3% drop in soda revenue in this key market, and fingers are being pointed at Americans’ tastes running toward healthier alternatives like bottled waters, drinks with vitamins and traditional hot beverages.
Coke has warned that sales for the rest of this year will probably not reflect any major turnaround just yet in North America.
***************************
Imagine Getting Rich As These Stocks Soar...
Read all about the latest growth stocks in the new Penny Stock Fortunes... The hottest tech and medical stocks NO ONE ELSE is talking about are only a click away...
http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1230874/15156911/820034/0/
***************************
But for small-cap investors, there are ways to play the soda industry, and ways to profit from the companies that are giving Coke some headaches…
So-called “gourmet soda” growth is the story here. Look no further than relative newcomers Jones Soda (JSDA: NASDAQ) and Hansen Natural (HANS: NASDAQ). The former is a small-cap, the latter is a bit bigger with a $3.5 billion market cap.
A few years ago, you could only buy Jones Soda products at record stores, surf shops and tattoo parlors. Now, this maker of so-called “alternative” sodas with pure cane sugar has bottles in Starbucks, Target and 7-Eleven. The packaging is pretty distinctive -- customers send in personal photos to Jones, and the best get accepted on their sodas’ labels.
Hansen markets itself as a natural soda maker, and also markets bottled smoothies and various energy drinks. The company dates back to the 1930s when the Hansen family was a juice supplier to the Hollywood film industry.
What these two companies have in common financially, though, is tremendous top- and bottom-line growth. Jones has averaged 20% revenue growth for the past seven years, with earnings making the turn to the plus side in 2003, and posting 254% net income growth just last year. All the while, Jones has been consistently expanding margins as well. Bigger brother Hansen has been even more impressive. Sales have grown on average 31% over the last seven years, with last year posting a 94% jump. But that wouldn’t be impressive without a jump in profitability…and Hansen hasn’t disappointed. Earnings have grown an average 53% for the last seven years.
***************************
Trusting your future to FUNDS and the blue chips? You may be playing to lose...
There's a more lucrative way -- with a 75-year track record of gains that stomp the S&P 500 by 1,142%...
http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1230874/15156911/820035/0/
***************************
The Beverage Marketing Corporation has the carbonated soda pop business pegged at $65.9 billion in total annual sales for last year. But traditional soda growth has been spotty and lackluster for much of this decade.
While Jones and Hansen are called “sodas,” and are definitely competing for Coke and Pepsi consumer dollars, industry insiders refer to these niche drink companies as New Age beverages. And this segment hasn’t been sliding in recent years. The most recent data we have shows that this is an almost $17 billion industry at the wholesale level and growing.
Investors have noticed, too.
Jones is up 103% in just the last two months alone. Hansen is up 281% since June 2005.
Small-cap investors should look for the beverage company stocks that have a great product, but aren’t profitable at the moment, and don’t have their distribution quite in place. When the stars finally align, a lot of the upside will already be gone.
What we’re working on right now within the Small-Cap Group at Agora Financial is a miniscule, off-the-radar gem of an alternative drink company, which has not yet turned the corner to making money every year… It has got an unlikely founder who not only produces a one-of-a-kind healthy soda, but has also gathered up the cash for his company to flourish through grit, determination and a pretty good understanding of the public investment game…
Until next time,
Craig
P.S.: There’s a hidden way to buy gold for less than once cent per ounce, even if $600 gold hits $2,000 by the end of 2008... Here’s the remarkable secret:
http://www1.youreletters.com/t/1230874/15156911/820036/0/
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You are receiving Penny Sleuth either because you are a loyal subscriber to either Penny Stock Fortunes, Small-Cap Strategy Report, Small-Cap Insider or Emerging Capital Report, or you have opted to receive information about the explosive small-cap market. Should you wish to unsubscribe please follow the instructions at the bottom of this e-mail.
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Nothing in this e-mail should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice.We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation.Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.
© 2007 Agora Financial, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the World Wide Web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Agora Financial, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21201.
Dear Trader:
The market has been showing a good performance all week long. The Dow keeps rising and it's almost reaching 13,000.
It all looks like we could have a good rally next week.
This Friday we present You 4 Hot Stocks You could have picked and traded for outstanding profits:
1- OLED from 4.90 to 6.05
2- EPCT from 2.31 (pre-market) to 4.68 (market open)
3- MDII from 2.12 (pre-market) to 2.57
4- BELM from 6.56 to 6.99
*Remember that we are not recommending You to buy these 4 stocks now. Trading Opportunities like these come and go. Learn how to take advantage of them TODAY.
Are You ready to pick Next Week's HOT STOCKS ?
Learn How to Pick & Trade Hot Stocks at http://www.StressFreeTraders.com
To Your Success,
Brandon Edwards
Trader Support
http://www.StressFreeTraders.com
Mid-day Watch
Friday, April 20th, 2007
PEDG - NEWS TODAY. LET'S CRACK $0.50 TODAY!!!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PEDG.PK
PrimEdge, Inc. Engages Mirador Consulting for Financial Advisory and Public Relations Representation
Friday April 20, 8:33 am ET
BOCA RATON, FL--(MARKET WIRE)--Apr 20, 2007 -- PrimEdge, Inc. announced today that its Board of Directors has approved an agreement with Mirador Consulting, Inc. (www.miradorconsulting.com) to provide PrimEdge financial advisory and public relations representation in an effort to effectively and proactively present the company to the public and investment community in a compliant, clear, and exciting manner.
The agreement provides PrimEdge professional representation to the public marketplace while allowing PrimEdge to focus on the day to day business, revenue growth, and increasing shareholder value as it continues to execute on its accelerated growth strategy. Mirador's services provide hands on proactive and critical solutions for PrimEdge's financial advisory and public relations needs as they continue to take on new business and increase their client base. It is important to have such representation when the company is finding their services and work product constantly in the public eye. Mirador offers complete corporate resources that monitor, advise, and react rapidly to the growing company while effectively communicating their message to the public and investment community.
Brian Schuster, President and CEO of PrimEdge, stated, "Engaging a firm such as Mirador is vital for us as we gain greater awareness among the investing public and the financial services sector. Mirador has an outstanding reputation based on solid credentials of advising firms of a size similar to ours. We are eager to begin working with them, and believe that they can assist us as we continue to grow and help us orchestrate and develop strong public and investor relations programs."
About PrimEdge, Inc.
PrimEdge, Inc. is a diversified holding company, owning and overseeing the operations of two majority owned subsidiaries, DigiKidz, Inc., a producer and distributor of family entertainment DVDs, and Orangebox Entertainment, Inc., a production and post production services provider to the entertainment industry. PrimEdge, Inc. seeks rapid growth through additional acquisitions and the sales and marketing by its subsidiaries of proprietary products.
****************************************
MGLG - WE ARE UP 12% AND WE GOT $0.50 TODAY. SO FAR THE HIGH IS $0.55!!! WE SHOULD TOP $0.60 TODAY!!!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MGLG.PK
****************************************
TNRI - UP 12% TODAY AND WE GOT $0.20 TODAY LIKE WE PREDICTED. NICE. WE SHOULD TOP $0.25 TODAY!!!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TNRI.PK
****************************************
PZZL - THIS STOCK IS DO TO POP VERY SOON. NEWS YESTERDAY.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PZZL.PK
Pizza International, Inc. Announces Its Subsidiary, Pizza.Net, Now Offering Gift Cards
****************************************
FGWI - NEEDS TO BREAK $0.15
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=FGWI.OB
****************************************
WYDY - BIG NEWS ANNOUNCED AFTER-HOURS
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=WYDY.OB
Beacon Equity Research Issues Research Note on Who's Your Daddy, Inc. Following Significant Developments with Company
Thursday April 19, 4:54 pm ET
DALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--A new research note has been issued on Who's Your Daddy, Inc. (OTCBB:WYDY - News) by Beacon Equity Research.
The full report is available at http://www.BeaconEquityResearch.com
Anyone interested in receiving alerts regarding Who's Your Daddy, Inc. research should email members@beaconequityresearch.com with "WYDY" in the subject line.
In the report the analyst writes, "Who's Your Daddy, Inc. is primarily engaged in manufacturing, promoting and selling its energy drinks known as Who's Your Daddy 'King of Energy.' The Company's 'King of Energy' energy drinks come in four distinct flavors, Regular, Sugar Free, Green Tea, and Sugar Free Green Tea.
"Who's Your Daddy, Inc., is rapidly expanding by focusing on strengthening its distribution network. Consequently it has established distribution agreements with some of the largest and most respected beer and beverage distributors in the United States, including Desert Eagle Distributing Co. in Texas, Southern Wine and Spirits in New Mexico and Capital City Beverage Company in Jackson, Mississippi. The Company currently has over 35 distributors that cover 15 states."
For a valuation perspective, other notable companies that trade in the beverage industry include: Hanson Natural (Nasdaq: HANS - News), Jones Soda (Nasdaq: JSDA - News), National Beverage Corp. (NYSE: FIZ - News), Cadbury Schweppes Public Ltd. Co. (NYSE: CSG - News)
****************************************
BIG TRADERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON
IFQJ - http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=IFQJ.PK
*Never invest into a stock we discuss unless you can afford to lose your entire investment. Keep in mind that these low price companies could make huge swings in either direction and should only be attempted by savvy individuals with risk capital looking for huge returns. For our full disclaimer go to: http://www.otcstockexchange.com/disclaimer.htm
4/16/2007 Hello Trader,
Today we present You with 4 outstanding picks that You could have traded this Monday by applying our trading methodologies:
1- AGEN from 4.45 to 5.47
2- QTWW from 1.37 to 1.49
3- RBY from 2.02 to 2.30
4- MDII from 1.75 to 1.95
If You have been following our emails You will notice that Friday's winners continued rising this Monday morning:
1- RCCC 14.22 to 19.01 on Friday and reached $23 Today
2- COMV 21.10 to 22.25 on Friday and reached $23.40 Today
3- PAE 1.42 to 1.85 on Friday and reached $1.90 Today
4- NANX 6.25 to 6.90 on Friday and reached $7.40 Today
*Remember that We are not recommending You to buy those 8 stocks now. Opportunities like these come and go. You can learn how to take advantage of them Today.
That makes 8 winning day trading stock picks on Monday.
Are You ready for the next hot stocks THIS WEEK?
Learn to Trade Hot Stocks at http://www.StressFreeTraders.com
To Your Success,
Brandon Edwards
Trader Support
http://www.StressFreeTraders.com
TO UNSUBSCRIBE REPLY TYPING "UNSUBSCRIBE" IN THE SUBJECT
4/17/2007 Hello Trader,
Let me expose 3 new hot stock picks You could have traded this Tuesday by applying our proven day trading methodologies:
1- DDD from 2.53 to 3.07
2- ONCY from 2.02 to 2.39
3- TELK from 6.10 (in pre-market hours) to 7.41 (regular market hours)
*We are not recommending You to buy those 3 stocks now. Opportunities like these come and go. You can discover how to take advantage of more hot stocks like these.
Are You ready for the NEXT hot stocks tomorrow?
Learn How to Pick & Trade Hot Stocks at http://www.StressFreeTraders.com
To Your Success,
Brandon Edwards
Trader Support
http://www.StressFreeTraders.com
TO UNSUBSCRIBE REPLY TYPING "UNSUBSCRIBE" IN THE SUBJECT LINE
4/20/2007 ***********************************************
ZACKS.COM PROFIT from the PROS
** Tactics that Work in Good and Bad Markets
*************************************************
Today's Topics: Friday - April 20, 2007
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS - Today we highlight four new stocks
with a short-term "Buy" or "Strong Buy" recommendation: Lazard
(LAZ), Avon Products (AVP), Quanta Services (PWR) and Credit
Suisse Group (CS). Get these stories below.
2) PROFIT TRACKS - PEG RATIO - If you like to use a company's
PE ratio to determine its value, you'll love using the PEG
ratio.
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH - First-quarter earnings have been
better-than-expected in terms of surprises, but it's still a
pretty small group so far. Read the Analyst Interview article
and get our Bull and Bear Stocks of the Day.
4) INVESTMENT IDEAS - Learn how to profit from the booming
video game industry with a couple of its top players.
5) FEATURED EXPERTS - Nadine Wong anticipates a positive FDA
decision for Dendreon's (DNDN) Provenge for the treatment of
prostate cancer. Read this biotech expert's commentary.
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==============================================
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS
==============================================
Zacks #1 Rank stocks average a 31.8% annual return. Every day
on Zacks.com we highlight four new Zacks Rank Buy stocks. Each
individual stock is chosen based on how well they match the
criteria for the four main schools of investing: Aggressive
Growth, Momentum, Growth & Income and Value.
Aggressive Growth - Lazard, Ltd. (LAZ)
Lazard, Ltd. (LAZ) has exceeded earnings estimates in five out
of the past six quarters. Earnings estimates for this year
have jumped 17 cents to $2.80 per share over the past 60 days.
Next year's numbers have risen an impressive 58 cents to $3.18
per share. With the Mergers & Acquisition picture still
looking bright, LAZ's earnings should continue to grow nicely.
Read the full analysis on LAZ at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2505
Growth & Income - Avon Products, Inc. (AVP)
Avon Products, Inc. (AVP), currently in the midst of a
turnaround plan, continues to buy back shares and pay
dividends. In fact, on Feb 1, the Board of Directors declared
a 5.7% increase in its regular quarterly dividend to 18.5
cents per common share. AVP has a current dividend yield of
1.9% and a five-year average dividend yield of 1.7%. Read the
full analysis on AVP at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2506
Momentum - Quanta Services Inc. (PWR)
Quanta Services Inc. (PWR) has been in a consistent uptrend
since breaking resistance in January of this year. The stock
has returned over 34% for 2007, clearly benefiting from rising
earnings estimates and the company's consistent reporting
history. Read the analysis of PWR at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2507
Value - Credit Suisse Group (CS)
Credit Suisse Group (CS) reported impressive fourth-quarter
and full-year 2006 results in mid-February. Management has
returned value to shareholders through both dividend payments
and share buybacks. The company is currently yielding 1.4%. CS
has a price-to-book ratio of 2.6, compared to 4.4 for the
market and 3.1 for the industry. Its PEG ratio currently
resides at 0.65. Read the full analysis on CS at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2508
Zacks Rank Resources
* Zacks Rank Homepage at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3113
* Zacks Elite: Discover Ben Zacks' hand picked #1 Rank stocks
on his Timely Buys list at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2554
* Zacks Rank Breakout Trader: When a stock moves quickly to a
Zacks #1 Rank, this trading service uses that turnaround to
make 55% a year. Learn more at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=3497
* Zacks Options Trader: Combine the timeliness of Zacks #1
Rank stocks with the explosive profit potential of options.
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* Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in
a portfolio managed by Zacks. Learn more at
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==============================================
2) PROFIT TRACKS
==============================================
Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading
strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today
we highlight...
Profit Tracks: PEG Ratio
This strategy uses the PEG Ratio to find attractively priced
stocks poised for price appreciation. The PEG Ratio is simply
the P/E (Price divided by Earnings) of a stock divided by its
5-year projected growth rate. Too often investors think of
value investing being the antithesis of growth investing. The
beauty of using PEG is that you can find value stocks even
amongst hot growth stocks. Let's take a closer look.
A company with a P/E Ratio of 20 and a Growth Rate of 10% will
have a PEG Ratio of 2.0 (20 / 10 = 2.0).
While a company with a P/E Ratio of 40 and a Growth Rate of
50% will have a PEG Ratio of only 0.8 ( 40 / 50 = 0.8)
The stock with the P/E of 40 is actually the better bargain
since its PEG Ratio is lower (0.8) implying it's undervalued
with more upside potential. In general, a PEG value of less
than 1 is considered undervalued while greater than 1 is
thought to be fully valued to overvalued. The lower the PEG,
the better the value, because the investor would be paying
less for each unit of earnings growth.
Here are four stocks that make the grade for the PEG Ratio
Profit Track:
American Commercial Lines, Inc. (ACLI) offers a PEG ratio
of 0.44. The company will release financial result for the
first quarter on April 24, 2007. In early February, ACLI
posted fourth-quarter earnings per share that increased
on a year-over-year basis. Although the company missed
Wall Street's fourth-quarter earnings estimate by 14%,
American Commercial Lines ' earnings were ahead of analyst
expectations for the previous four consecutive quarters.
Continue your research on ACLI at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2290
Aspreva Pharmaceuticals Corporation (ASPV), a
Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) company, is set to report
first-quarter results on May 2, 2007. The company
recently reported preliminary and unaudited net revenues
of approximately $59 million for the first quarter. In early
February, ASPPV announced fourth-quarter results. Total
revenue reached $52.5 million, versus the year-
prior $45 million. Fourth-quarter earnings per share
were 73 cents, which topped last year's 68 cents and exceeded
the consensus estimate by 14%. ASPV sports a PEG ratio of 0.30.
Continue your research on ASPV at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2291
Mattson Technology, Inc. (MTSN) will announce results for
the first quarter on April 25, 2007. The company released
its fourth-quarter report in late January. MTSN achieved
record revenue of $83.6 million, compared to the previous
year's $50.4 million. Mattson Technology mentioned that
in 2006, it outgrew the industry, delivering record revenue,
bookings and cash for the year. The company satisfies the
criteria of this Profit Track with a PEG ratio of 0.51. Continue
your research on MTSN at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2292
Tesoro Corp. (TSO) will announce financial results for the
first quarter on May 3, 2007. In late January, the company
posted record fourth-quarter earnings of $2.28 per share.
The result beat the consensus estimate by 32% and outperformed
the year-prior result. The company stated that its knowledge
and experience in optimizing its system continues to develop
and its decisions around crude oil purchasing and clean
product management are significantly improving earnings.
TSO's PEG ratio currently stands at 0.44. Continue your
research on TSO at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2293
To see the track details for this winning screen, go to
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2294
All the Profit Track strategies were created and backtested
using the Research Wizard software from Zacks Investment
Research. If you like this screening strategy, but want to
narrow down the list of stocks and even improve the
performance, then you should start a free trial to this
powerful stock picking tool. Learn more about the Research
Wizard free trial offer and our new special report "Top 10
Stock Screening Strategies" at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2295
****************************************************************
SCREEN OF THE WEEK
Great Stocks Often Have Great Peers
Kevin Matras explains how to find winning stocks in the
winningest sectors:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2289
====================================================
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH
====================================================
New Dow highs and a recently begun first quarter earnings
season are among the topics we are discussing with Zacks
Senior Market Analyst Charles Rotblut, CFA.
We hit a record high for the Dow the past couple days. What's
behind this?
There's just an underlying bullish sentiment going on. In
late February, when we had the markets pull back because of
the problems in China, our wealth management group actually
saw more money being invested. We did not see fear set into
the markets. More importantly, a lot of the downward
volatility that a lot of investors feared would come back to
the markets or thought was returning really didn't return.
More...
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Zacks Equity Research continued...
If we look at the VIX, the CBOE volatility index, there's been
a definite downward trend over the past four or five weeks.
So we had a sudden spike that appeared to be a return to
volatility, but at the end of the day, complacency is still
the rule. We just have an underlying bullish sentiment to the
markets.
Are Q1 earnings having any affect at this point?
Somewhat. The earnings have been better than expected in
terms of surprises, but it's still a pretty small group as far
as what we're seeing. As of Wednesday evening, we only had 80
companies with the S&P 500 reporting. So it's still a small
universe.
We are seeing positive surprises outnumbering negative
surprises. Growth has not been spectacular, however; we
haven't hit the double-digit growth rates I was expecting we'd
see. But then again, the mix of companies is not totally
represented in the indexes, so it's hard to say earnings are
not going to be double-digit once all companies have reported.
Surprisingly, earnings out of the tech group have not been
spectacular. In the semiconductor sector, we're actually
looking at negative growth. But we're looking at just seven
companies - and that's if we add Motorola MOT into that group.
So again, we're seeing some negative numbers that might be
pulling down the overall growth rate at this point. I think
it's too early to raise a warning flag, but if people are
wondering what's not doing so well, certainly semiconductors
and tech in general can be considered. Although we just had
some really great numbers from Google GOOG that were released
after the bell, at least the revenue numbers look very strong.
The banking sector has been flat - really no change. And
that's due to the problems with the housing sector - mortgage
delinquencies, foreclosures - so to see earnings flat isn't
really a surprise. There are problems on the consumer side
with the banking sector.
Read the complete ANALYST INTERVIEW article at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2306
Charles Rotblut, CFA is a senior market analyst for Zacks.com.
****************************************************************
MORE FROM ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH...
Analyst Blog
Real-time market insights from Zacks Equity Research Analysts.
Stocks featured recently include eBay (EBAY), Stryker (SYK),
Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Tweeter Home Entertainment (TWTR).
See their latest posts at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2583
BULL OF THE DAY
Schering-Plough (SGP) - Turnaround Complete.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2281
BEAR OF THE DAY
Avici Systems (AVCI) - Major Restructuring.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2282
ZACKS INDUSTRY RANK
Money in Metal
Both Alcoa (AA) and Steel Dynamics (STLD) said demand for
metal remains strong:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2362
EARNINGS TRENDS
Expectations Set Low for First Quarter Earnings
Even with a "normal" level of earnings surprises, S&P 500
earnings growth will struggle to make it to double digits this
quarter:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2364
Rating Upgrades - (Premium)
Find out which stocks have been recently upgraded by
Zacks Equity Research:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3007
Zacks Equity Research Buys - (Premium)
Read the reports on all of the stocks on the
Zacks Equity Research Buy List:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3008
****************************************************************
Learn More about Zacks Equity Research at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2287
Full access to Zacks Equity Research is now available on
Zacks.com:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3009
Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in a
portfolio managed by Zacks. Learn more at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2696
==============================================
4) INVESTMENT IDEAS
==============================================
The editors at Zacks.com constantly analyze the universe of
stocks to find the best investment ideas. Today, learn how you
can profit from the video game industry:
The computer and video game industry is a multi-billion dollar
industry. Sales for U.S. computer and video game software grew
6% in 2006 to $7.4 billion-almost tripling industry software
sales since 1996, according to the Entertainment Software
Association (ESA). Other notable statistics include:
* The average game player is 33 years old and has been playing
games for 12 years.
* The average age of the most frequent game buyer is 40 years
old.
* 93% of computer game buyers and 83% of console game buyers
were over the age of 18.
* 44% of gamers are age 18 to 49.
* 25% of gamers are age 50 or older.
* 38% of all game players are women.
So, how can one profit from this ever-growing industry? Below
are some of the top players in the video game industry:
GameStop Corp. (GME) operates as a retailer of video game
products and personal computer entertainment software. The
company is also the largest reseller of used video games. GME
currently operates 4,778 retail stores across North America
and Europe. The great thing about this company is that no
matter which game console or software titles eventually win
out, GME will succeed by selling the most popular consoles and
titles in its stores.
We believe GME will continue to benefit from the current video
game cycle, which is still in the early stages, and is being
driven by next-generation video game consoles. These include
Xbox 360, PlayStation 3 and Nintendo Wii. Furthermore, GME
also stands to benefit a great deal from its merger with
Electronics Boutique. This resulting size of the combined
company is expected to provide GME with many competitive
advantages and cost savings that should help drive solid sales
growth and profit margin expansion for years to come. The
company exceeded analysts' earnings expectations in six out of
the past eight quarters. Consensus estimates for both this
year and next are up over the past 30 days. GME has a return
on equity of 13%, compared to 9% for the industry.
Electronic Arts, Inc. (ERTS) engages in the development,
marketing, publishing and distribution of interactive software
games worldwide. Its software games are playable by consumers
on devices such as in-home video game players, personal
computers, mobile platforms, including handheld video game
players and cellular handsets, and over the Internet and other
online networks. ERTS produces one of the most popular video
games around-Madden NFL. The PlayStation 2 version sold 1.8
million copies, helping to make the game the top seller of
2006.
On Feb 1, ERTS raised both its revenue and profit guidance for
fiscal 2007. The company now expects revenues to be between
$3.025 billion and $3.075 billion, versus its previous outlook
of between $2.950 billion and $3.125 billion. Earnings per
share are now forecasted to be between 15 cents and 20 cents
per share, up from its previous expectation of breakeven to 15
cents. On Mar 1, ERTS announced that the best in videogame
music from its best-selling games will be available for
purchase from the iTunes Store via ea.com. Also, in late-March,
the company announced the creation of a full-service music
label, called The Artwerk label, in a joint venture with
Nettwerk One Music Ltd. ERTS beat the Street's earnings
estimate in each of the past four quarters by an average
margin of 95.2%.
Read the full Investment Ideas article by clicking here:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3548
==============================================
5) FEATURED EXPERTS
==============================================
Here we cast the spotlight on timely Featured Expert
commentaries that recently appeared on Zacks.com.
Done Deal
Nadine Wong anticipates a positive FDA decision for Dendreon's
(DNDN) Provenge for the treatment of prostate cancer. Read
this biotech expert's commentary:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=1779
Get Global
Wall Street Digest proprietor Donald Rowe tells why investors
should remain fully invested:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2543
Overseas Kicking In
MONEYLETTER's Walter Frank gives his latest impressions on
overseas funds, as well as good-to-know news about one major
mutual fund:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2463
****************************************************************
OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS
At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank
investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the
market. Our Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) List has generated the
following results for investors:
* +31.8% average annual return since 1988 versus +11.8% for
S&P 500
* Outperformed S&P 500 in 17 of the last 18 years
* +43.8% total return from 2000 to 2002 - the worst
bear market in over 60 years.
* +18% in 2005
And just as importantly, the Zacks #5 Rank stocks (Strong
Sell) list has alerted investors as to which stocks to dump
from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses.
To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first
understand how it works. That's why we created the free
special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of
Earnings Estimate Revisions. Download a free copy now to
prosper in the years to come by visiting
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Or view the full list of Zacks #1 Rank (Premium) stocks at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2297
FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER
Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
* Broker Recommendation changes
* Earning Estimate revisions
* Earnings Announcements
* Zacks Rank changes
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these
changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000
investors who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio
Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not,
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---------------------------------------------------------
We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Zacks.com Profit from the
Pros" and we look forward to visiting with you again tomorrow.
REFER-A-FRIEND
If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along
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Regards and Happy Investing,
Charles Rotblut, CFA
Senior Market Analyst
Zacks.com
p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros?
To find out how we will help you become a more
successful investor, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=2300
The Zacks Performance Rank performance is the total return
(price changes + dividends) of equal weighted portfolios,
consisting of those stocks with the indicated Zacks Rank,
assuming zero transaction costs and monthly rebalancing.
Simulated results do not represent actual trading and may not
reflect the impact that economic and market factors might have
had on decision-making if an adviser were actually managing a
client's money.
*The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the
prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip
stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index
assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect
advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an
index.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future
results. Investors should always research companies and
securities before making any investments. Nothing herein
should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell
any security.
To contact us by mail:
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4/19/2007 ***********************************************
ZACKS.COM PROFIT from the PROS
** Tactics that Work in Good and Bad Markets **
***********************************************
Today's Topics: Thursday - April 19, 2007
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS - Today we highlight four new stocks
with a short-term "Buy" or "Strong Buy" recommendation:
Bare Escentuals (BARE), IDEX Corp. (IEX), GameStop (GME)
and ICF Int'l (ICFI). Get these stories below.
2) BEST OF THE ZACKS $100,000 CHALLENGE - MoBeer considers
himself to be a technical swing trader. Read this Simulator
player's interview and take a look at the Zacks Challenge
Player Blog.
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH - Both Alcoa (AA) and Steel
Dynamics (STLD) said demand for metal remains strong.
Read the Industry Rank Analysis and get our Bull and Bear
Stocks of the Day.
4) PROFIT TRACKS - GROWTH AND INCOME - Find stocks that are
paying dividend yields of greater than 8% and have other
attractive fundamental attributes.
5) ZacksElite.com TIMELY BUY OF THE WEEK - Footwear
retailer Crocs (CROX) has experienced stellar growth,
driven by international expansion, licensing
relationships and new product lines.
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****************************************************************
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the archive of past issues? Go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=2337
Manage your Profit from the Pros subscription:
* Free Subscription http://at.zacks.com/?id=2338
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* Unsubscribe http://at.zacks.com/?id=2340
==============================================
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS
==============================================
Zacks #1 Rank stocks average a 31.8% annual return. Every day
on Zacks.com we highlight four new Zacks Rank Buy stocks.
Each individual stock is chosen based on how well they match
the criteria for the four main schools of investing:
Aggressive Growth, Momentum, Growth & Income and Value.
Aggressive Growth - Bare Escentuals, Inc. (BARE)
Bare Escentuals, Inc. (BARE) is a small company that is
enjoying huge momentum. The company reported a huge quarter
in late-February and raised guidance. Earnings estimates have
been on the rise as well. Over the past week, this year's numbers
have risen five cents to 91 cents per share. Next year's estimates
have risen a dime over that time period. Read the full analysis
on BARE at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3106
Growth & Income - IDEX Corporation (IEX)
IDEX Corporation (IEX) exceeded analysts' earnings expectations
in 12 out of the past 15 quarters. On Apr 4, the Board of Directors
declared a 20% boost in its quarterly cash dividend to 18 cents
per share, marking its 50th consecutive quarterly dividend payment.
IEX is currently yielding 1.4%. The company's return on equity
betters that of the industry average-14% compared to 9%. Read the
full analysis on IEX at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3108
Momentum - GameStop Corporation (GME)
GameStop Corporation (GME) recently reported earnings and revenues
that exceeded expectations. Upward momentum appears to be in place
with the stock trading near 52-week highs. Read the analysis
of GME at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3109
Value - ICF International, Inc. (ICFI)
Consensus earnings estimates have shot upward for ICF
International, Inc. (ICFI) over the past 30 days. Earnings per
share are projected to grow 15% over the next 3-5 years. The
company announced two strategic acquisitions in January.
This Zacks #1 Rank stock has a price-to-book ratio of 2.7,
compared to 4.4 for the market. Its PEG ratio currently
resides at 0.96. Read the full analysis
on ICFI at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3110
Zacks Rank Resources
* Zacks Rank Homepage at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3104
* Zacks Elite: Discover Ben Zacks' hand picked #1 Rank
stocks on his Timely Buys list at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2550
* Zacks Rank Breakout Trader: When a stock moves quickly to a
Zacks #1 Rank, this trading service uses that turnaround to
make 55% a year. Learn more at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=3496
* Zacks Options Trader: Combine the timeliness of Zacks #1 Rank
stocks with the explosive profit potential of options. Learn
more at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2689
* Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks
in a portfolio managed by Zacks. Learn more
at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2551
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==============================================
2) Best of the Zacks $100,000 Challenge
==============================================
Zacks is conducting a nationwide talent search to find the very
best stock pickers. The winner gets a $100,000 dream job with
Zacks! Sign up for free to join the competition, or just read
what stocks the leading players are trading on the Zacks
Challenge Player Blogs. http://at.zacks.com/?id=3469
Best of the Zacks Challenge Player Blogs
-----------------------------------------
Here's what the leading players are saying lately:
Momotrader12 (Rank #766 with $108,175)
PULLBACKS MAY SET UP GOOD ENTRY POINTS (SLP, JSDA)
SLP (62%) and JSDA (50%) had both given me great returns in
my trading account. I sold 2/3 of my positions in both of
them near their highs a few days ago, which left me with
"free" shares to hold. Now both have pulled back...
Read More or Comment on this post:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3478
Lilnev2000 (Rank #5 with $171,280)
ENERGY METALS CORP. - MY URANIUM PICK (EMU)
Looking at other Uranium picks, I did some research and
found a pretty solid company with future production aspects
in Energy Materials. The company has its uranium assets
located throughout the U.S. and is looking to get multiple
properties to production...
Read More or Comment on this post:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3479
Read all the Player Blog posts at:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3482
Top Zacks Challenge Player Interview: MoBeer
----------------------------------------------------------
Anthony Silva (aka MoBeer) considers himself to be a
technical swing trader. The successful Simulator player
and active Zacks $100K Challenge blogger has been
posting insightful blog commentary. Thus, Zacks
contacted Anthony to pick his brain further.
When asked to elaborate on his investment strategy, the
technical player replied, "in searching for stocks, I
would say the first standard it needs to meet is does the
chart show some form of predictability? I look for price
action that uses trend lines and moving averages for
support/resistance. When coming up from support does it
tend to give consistent bullish candles on the upward move
and consistent bearish candles falling from resistance? If
the charts show a lot of gapping, long shadows, or mixed
candles on the move, this can tend to whipsaw me around
in and out of trades."
Some of the companies in which this Zacks $100K Challenge
participant has held positions include
Global Payments Inc. (GPN), SiRF Technology Holdings Inc. (SIRF),
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. (COG), Nike Inc. (NKE) and
eBay Inc. (EBAY) to name a few. Take a look at his entire
trading history by clicking here: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2515
Click here to read the whole interview with MoBeer:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2518
Click here for more on the Zacks $100,000 Challenge:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3469
====================================================
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH
====================================================
The reaction to Alcoa's (AA) first-quarter surprise has been
positive overall. Since the company reported quarterly profits
of 79 cents per share, five of the 15 covering brokerage analysts
have raised their full-year forecasts. The new consensus estimate
calls for earnings of $3.26 per share, five cents above the average
projection of a week ago. It should be noted that one analyst did
lower his forecast, but he still remains comparatively bullish with
a prediction of $3.30 per share.
Alcoa generated an 11% increase in sales, thanks to both good
demand and higher prices. The company saw particular strength
in the aerospace market, but also noted that Chinese demand
remains very good. CEO Alain Belda described the world
market as being "robust".
Steel Dynamics (STLD) followed Alcoa's report with its own
first-quarter surprise. STLD generated earnings of $1.01 per
share, three cents above the upper end of its raised guidance
and five cents above the consensus estimate. Revenues rose 30%,
reflecting strength in the non-residential construction and
industrial markets.
More...
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Best of Zacks Equity Research continued...
A decline in prices adversely impacted margins; the company
saw its average consolidated selling price drop by $31 per
ton on a sequential quarterly basis. The price decline may
have been caused by higher inventory levels within the channel
during the first-quarter a headwind that raised concern for
the entire industry. STLD observed in late-March that
inventory levels at steel service centers had declined,
however - a bullish sign.
Two of the nine covering brokerage analysts raised their
full-year forecasts on STLD following the release of the
first-quarter results. The new consensus estimate calls
for 2007 earnings to total $3.87 per share versus $3.84
a week ago and $3.76 two months ago.
AA is a Zacks #2 Rank ("buy") stock and is classified in
Mining-Non Ferrous. This group also contains four
Zacks #1 Rank ("strong buy") stocks: Chalco (ACH),
Anglo American (AGPPY), Freeport McMoRan (FCX) and
Kaiser Aluminum (KALU). STLD is a Zacks #3 Rank ("hold")
stock and is classified in Steel-Producers. This group
contains five Zacks #1 Rank stocks, AK Steel Holdings (AKS),
Arcelor Mittal (MT), CIA Siderur (SID),
Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) and U.S. Steel (X).
To read the complete Industry Rank Analysis,
click http://at.zacks.com/?id=2344
Charles Rotblut, CFA is the senior market analyst for
Zacks Equity Research.
****************************************************************
MORE FROM ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH...
Analyst Blog
Real-time market insights from Zacks Equity Research Analysts.
Stocks featured recently include Rent-A-Center (RCII),
Endesa-Chile (EOC), Abbott Labs (ABT) and Motorola (MOT).
See their latest posts at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2585
BULL OF THE DAY
Cosi, Inc. (COSI) - Expansion Looks Promising.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2341
BEAR OF THE DAY
LeapFrog Enterprises (LF) - Tough Retail Market.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2342
ZACKS ANALYST INTERVIEW
Consolidation Keeping REITs Trading Up
M&A has definitely provided a boost for REITs, especially for
office-focused companies:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2693
EARNINGS TRENDS
Expectations Set Low for First-Quarter Earnings
Even with a "normal" level of earnings surprises, S&P 500 earnings
growth will struggle to make it to double digits this quarter:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2343
Rating Upgrades - New! (Premium)
Find out which stocks have been recently upgraded by
Zacks Equity Research:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2997
Zacks Equity Research Buys - New! (Premium)
Read the reports on all of the stocks on the
Zacks Equity Research Buy List:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2998
****************************************************************
Learn More about Zacks Equity Research at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2268
Full access to Zacks Equity Research is now available on
Zacks.com:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2999
Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in a
portfolio managed by Zacks. Learn more at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2691
==============================================
4) PROFIT TRACKS
==============================================
Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading
strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today
we highlight...
Profit Tracks: Growth and Income
This screen looks for stocks that are paying dividend yields
of greater than 8% along with other attractive fundamental
attributes. Although this screen is based on a long-term and
lower risk approach to investing, it has a history of
outperforming the S&P 500.
Here are four stocks that make the grade for the Growth and
Income Profit Track:
Crystal River Capital, Inc. (CRZ), which is yielding 10.27%
right now, reported fourth-quarter operating earnings of
64 cents per share in late March. The result exceeded the
consensus estimate by 3% and outperformed the year ago result.
Quarterly gross revenue increased to $59.1 million, improving
on the previous year's $34.9 million. The company declared a
quarterly dividend of 68 cents per share in mid-March.
Continue your research on
CRZ at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2354
Diana Shipping, Inc. (DSX) offers a current yield of 9.68%.
The company released its report for the fourth quarter in
late February. Earnings per share totaled 37 cents, which
surpassed the consensus estimate by 3% and outperformed
the year-ago result. Diana Shipping's fourth-quarter
report included a dividend declaration of 46 cents
per share. Continue your research
on DSX at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2355
General Maritime Corp. (GMR) has a current dividend yield
of 8.11%. In early March, the company declared a special
one-time dividend of $15.00 per share and a fourth-quarter
dividend of 62 cents per share. GMR announced results for
the fourth quarter and full year in late February.
Quarterly earnings per share totaled 71 cents, beating
the consensus estimate by a penny. GMR referred to 2006
as "another year of impressive results." The company noted
that during the year, it distributed sizeable dividends to
shareholders, repurchased a significant amount of stock
and completed the monetization of non-core assets,
which transformed the GMR into an operator of a fully
double-hull fleet. Continue your research
on GMR at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2356
Iowa Telecommunications Services, Inc. (IWA) satisfies
the criteria for this Profit Track with a current dividend
yield of 8.04%. In mid-March, the company declared a
quarterly dividend of $0.405 per share. Fourth-quarter
results were released in early March. IWA stated that
results were very strong, and were in line with its
expectations for its rural telecommunications business.
Results for the first quarter will be available on
May 3, 2007. Continue your research
on IWA at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2357
To see the track details for this winning screen,
go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=2358
All the Profit Track strategies were created and
backtested using the Research Wizard software from
Zacks Investment Research. If you like this screening
strategy, but want to narrow down the list of stocks
and even improve the performance, then you should start
a free trial to this powerful stock picking tool.
Learn more about the Research Wizard free trial offer
and our new special report "Top 10 Stock Screening Strategies"
at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2359
****************************************************************
SCREEN OF THE WEEK
Great Stocks Often Have Great Peers
Kevin Matras explains how to find winning stocks in the
winningest sectors:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2360
==============================================
5) ZacksElite.com TIMELY BUY of the WEEK
==============================================
Here you'll discover a Zacks #1 Rank stock hand selected by
Ben Zacks to outperform the market over the next 30 to 90 days.
This week's Timely Buy is...
Crocs (CROX)
------------------------------------------------
All Crocs (CROX) brand shoes feature Crocs proprietary
closed-cell resin, Croslite, which represents a substantial
innovation in footwear. The Croslite material enables us to
produce soft, comfortable, lightweight, superior-gripping,
non-marking and odor-resistant shoes. These unique elements
make Crocs footwear ideal for casual wear, as well as for
professional and recreational uses such as boating, hiking,
hospitality and gardening. The versatile use of the material
has enabled us to successfully market our products to a broad
range of consumers. In 2006, the company acquired Jibbitz LLC,
a unique accessory brand with colorful snap-on products
specifically suited for Crocs shoes. Today, more than
900 Jibbitz designs are available to consumers for personalizing
and customizing their Crocs footwear. Crocs are sold in more
than 80 countries and come in a wide array of colors and styles.
The bull story for Crocs comes from its stellar growth, which
is being driven by international expansion, licensing
relationships, and new product lines. In 2006, Crocs
increased sales by 227% and earnings per share by 226%.
Despite Crocs stellar growth over the last few years, it is
important to note that Crocs is essentially a one-product
company. Crocs sells a very popular line of casual shoes
that appeal to many walks of life. However, popular fashion
trends can turn on a dime, and consumers tastes can change
at any time. If the popularity of Crocs shoes were to stagnate
or decrease, the company s results would suffer a great deal.
And, at this point, Crocs doesn't have another product line
that can make-up for a shortfall in shoe sales.
The company released financial results for the fourth quarter
and full year in mid-February. Quarterly earnings per share
of 51 cents surged past the previous year's fourth quarter
total of 12 cents and topped the consensus estimate by 19%.
In fact, CROX's earnings per share have been above analysts'
expectations for the past four consecutive quarters.
Ron Snyder, President and Chief Executive Officer of Crocs, Inc.
commented, "Our better than expected fourth quarter results
were driven by strong retail sell-through of our entire
product offering and represents a great finish to an
important year for our Company. Throughout the quarter
we witnessed ongoing demand for our classic footwear both
here and abroad, coupled with growing consumer acceptance of
our new styles. At the same time, our Collegiate and Disney
collections are both off to a tremendous start which bodes
well as we look to further expand and evolve our licensing
programs. We enter the new year with great momentum
evidenced by our heightened outlook for 2007."
Crocs forecasted first-quarter earnings to range from
47 cents to 49 cents per share. Analysts are in agreement
as evidenced by current earnings projections of 48 cents
per share, up from two months-ago levels of 35 cents.
****************************************************************
About Zacks Timely Buy of the Week
Each week we highlight one stock from the ZacksElite.com
Timely Buys list. This exclusive portfolio selected by Ben
Zacks has beaten the S&P 500 every single year since inception
in 1996. $10,000 invested in this strategy since inception
would now be worth $115,319 versus only $23,597 invested in
the S&P 500.
Click here to learn more about ZacksElite.com and the free
trial offer http://at.zacks.com/?id=2346
****************************************************************
OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS
At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank
investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the
market. Our Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) List has generated the
following results for investors:
* +31.8% average annual return since 1988 versus +11.8% for
S&P 500
* Outperformed S&P 500 in 17 of the last 18 years
* +43.8% total return from 2000 to 2002 - the worst
bear market in over 60 years.
* +18% in 2005
And just as importantly, the Zacks #5 Rank stocks (Strong Sell)
List has alerted investors as to which stocks to dump from
Their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses.
FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER
Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
* Broker Recommendation changes
* Earning Estimate revisions
* Earnings Announcements
* Zacks Rank changes
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these
changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000 investors
who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio Updates emails
from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not, then sign up now
to get this vital information sent to you daily and improve
your portfolio's performance. Did we mention it's free? Get
started now by going to http://at.zacks.com/?id=2352
---------------------------------------------------------
We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Zacks.com Profit from the
Pros" and we look forward to visiting with you again tomorrow.
REFER-A-FRIEND
If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along
to a friend. Simply forward them the link below to sign up for
their own free subscription. If you're reading a forwarded copy,
sign up for your own, so you get this wealth of information
every week. Just click on the link below. THANKS!
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2338
Regards and Happy Investing,
Charles Rotblut, CFA
Senior Market Analyst
Zacks.com
p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros?
To find out how we will help you become a more
successful investor, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=2353
The Zacks Performance Rank performance is the total return
(price changes + dividends) of equal weighted portfolios,
consisting of those stocks with the indicated Zacks Rank,
assuming zero transaction costs and monthly rebalancing.
Simulated results do not represent actual trading and may not
reflect the impact that economic and market factors might have
had on decision-making if an adviser were actually managing a
client's money.
*The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the
prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip
stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index
assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory
fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Investors should always research companies and securities
before making any investments. Nothing herein should be
construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any
security.
To contact us by mail:
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Attn: Profit from the Pros
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Chicago, IL 60606
To unsubscribe from receiving "Zacks.com Profit from the Pros"
e-mail newsletter, click here http://at.zacks.com/?id=2340
-
4/18/2007 ***********************************************
ZACKS.COM PROFIT from the PROS
** Tactics that Work in Good and Bad Markets **
***********************************************
Today's Topics: Wednesday - April 18, 2007
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS - Today we highlight four new stocks
with a short-term "Buy" or "Strong Buy" recommendation:
Middleby Corporation (MIDD), MasterCard (MA), Arcelor Mittal
(MT) and U.S. Steel (X). Get these stories below.
2) SCREEN OF THE WEEK - Kevin Matras explains how to find
winning stocks in the winningest sectors.
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH - A late winter chill helped improve
natural gas' storage level to some extent, but it still
remains above historical levels. Read the Analyst Interview
and get our Bull and Bear Stocks of the Day.
4) ZACKS WEALTH MANAGEMENT - Discover the best way to utilize
various asset classes within a shorter time frame.
5) BEST OF THE ZACKS $100,000 CHALLENGE- Zoroleheros says U.S.
indices are overbought right now and are due for a correction.
Read this Simulator participant's blog post along with two of
his competitors.
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Want to view the online version of Profit from the Pros or the
archive of past issues? Go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=2319
Manage your Profit from the Pros subscription:
* Free Subscription http://at.zacks.com/?id=2320
* Change of Address http://at.zacks.com/?id=2321
* Unsubscribe http://at.zacks.com/?id=2322
==============================================
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS
==============================================
Zacks #1 Rank stocks average a 31.8% annual return. Every day
on Zacks.com we highlight four new Zacks Rank Buy stocks. Each
individual stock is chosen based on how well they match the
criteria for the four main schools of investing: Aggressive
Growth, Momentum, Growth & Income and Value.
Aggressive Growth - The Middleby Corporation (MIDD)
The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) has met or exceeded earnings
estimates in 13 consecutive quarters, with 12 of those periods
registering positive surprises. One analyst raised his numbers
for this year. Over the past 60 days, this year's earnings
estimates have increased 22 cents to $6.02 per share. The
stock is trading at 20x next year's estimates compared to its
long-term growth rate of 15%. Read the full analysis on MIDD
at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2498
Growth & Income - MasterCard Incorporated (MA)
MasterCard Incorporated (MA) topped analysts' earnings
expectations over the past three quarters by an average margin
of 55%. Consensus estimates have jumped over the past two
months. On Feb 9, the Board of Directors declared a 66.7%
boost in its quarterly cash dividend to 15 cents per share
from nine cents. MA's return on equity tops that of the
industry average-23% compared to 16%. Read the full analysis
on MA at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2499
Momentum - Arcelor Mittal (MT)
Arcelor Mittal (MT) is up over 28% for 2007, and while
slightly off its highs, momentum should continue to the
upside. Supporting the trend, the latest earnings surprise was
followed by upward earnings revisions and the announcement of
a share buyback program. Read the analysis of MT at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2500
Value - United States Steel Corporation (X)
United States Steel Corporation (X) exceeded analysts'
earnings expectations in four straight quarters by an average
margin of 20.8%. Consensus earnings estimates for both this
year and next are up over the past 30 days. On Mar 29, X
announced that it will acquire Lone Star Technologies, Inc.,
making it North America's largest producer of tubular steel. X
has a price-to-book ratio of 2.9 and a current dividend yield
of 0.76%. Read the full analysis on X at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2501
Zacks Rank Resources
* Zacks Rank Homepage at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3102
* Zacks Elite: Discover Ben Zacks' hand picked #1 Rank stocks
on his Timely Buys list at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2546
* Zacks Rank Breakout Trader: When a stock moves quickly to a
Zacks #1 Rank, this trading service uses that turnaround to
make 55% a year. Learn more at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=3495
* Zacks Options Trader: Combine the timeliness of Zacks #1
Rank stocks with the explosive profit potential of options.
Learn more at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2714
* Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in
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==============================================
2) SCREEN OF THE WEEK
==============================================
Zacks.com offers a unique stock search strategy from Kevin
Matras each week to help you Profit from the Pros. Each week,
Kevin shares with you another winning screen he has discovered
using the Research Wizard software from Zacks Investment
Research. Learn more about the Research Wizard at:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2335
"Great Stocks often have Great Peers"
We've mentioned it before, but it's worth saying again; nearly
half of a stock's price movement is tied to the performance of
its respective group (sector and industry).
That being said, most great stocks from great groups often
have some great peers as well.
If you find yourself in a killer trade (or wished you were in
one), take a look at the characteristics of THAT STOCK and
then hunt within its group to find OTHER STOCKS that share the
same characteristics.
Does a certain outstanding stock exhibit great sales growth?
I'm sure there are at least a few within its group that are
also showing similar numbers.
What about increasing margins? If the stock is doing well,
it's likely that the industry itself is experiencing
meaningful increases in margins too.
This type of screening is often called `modeling'. Figure out
the components of what makes something successful and
concentrate on that.
If you're in love with a certain stock or sector but it's not
doing anything, or even moving against you, then move on.
If you see great stocks in great groups while you're bemoaning
your misfortune in laggards or non-movers, find what stocks
are successful and model them.
If the winningest stocks in a particular sector or industry
are trading at PE ratios that you generally won't consider,
... instead consider this; if you had considered them, they
would be winning for you.
So therefore, see what characteristics some of the best stocks
have in common and try getting on some of those.
Here's something to start you off.
The top four Sectors based on the percentage of stocks at (or
within 10% of) their 52 week highs are listed below.
Current standings:
1 Utilities 69%
2 Conglomerates 59%
3 Finance 52%
4 tie between:
Transportation 48%
Basic Materials 48%
Here are a few stocks from each of those current top sectors
for Tuesday 4/17/07):
SWX Southwest Gas Corp. - Utilities
ITT ITT Corp. - Conglomerates
DLR Digital Realty Trust - Finance
RJET Republic Airway - Transportation
KOP Koppers Holdings, Inc. - Basic Materials
Now try screening for stocks in these Sectors that are in the
best Industries.
In fact, in the Research Wizard, you can rank the Industries
on whatever item you choose. (Same thing for the Sectors.)
Want to find the `best' Industries based on the Zacks Rank?
You can. What about the highest ROE or biggest Earnings
Estimate Revision? No problem! Whatever items you want to use
to rank your Industries can all be done with a few clicks of
the mouse.
And then you can even narrow it down to the best stocks within
those groups, again based on whatever criteria you choose.
To search for the best stocks (and Groups) yourself, sign up
for your two-week FREE trial to the Research Wizard. Remember
the key to successful screening is in discovering those
screens that have produced profitable results in the past. And
that's exactly what you get with the powerful Screening and
Backtesting ability of Research Wizard. You can do it. Learn
how, today. http://at.zacks.com/?id=2335
Discover all the Free Screening Tools on Zacks.com at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2336
Disclosure: Officers, directors and/or employees of Zacks
Investment Research may own or have sold short securities
and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are
mentioned in this material. An affiliated investment advisory
firm may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long
and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this
material.
====================================================
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH
====================================================
In yesterday's interview with senior energy analyst Sheraz
Mian , we focused on more of the big picture regarding the oil
industry going forward. Today, we wanted to address some of
the specific sub-groups in the industry, instead.
Let's talk about some of these sub-groups in the oil industry.
How is E&P [Exploration and Production] doing, for instance?
One major differentiating factor between E&P companies and the
large, integrated major oil companies is their commodity
exposures. In addition to crude oil and natural gas prices,
the integrateds are exposed to refining margins, marketing
margins as well as chemical margins - not just in the U.S. but
on a global level. The E&P companies, on the other hand, have
a disproportionate exposure to U.S. natural gas prices.
More...
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Zacks Equity Research continued...
Developments in U.S. natural gas markets, in turn, have a
strong impact on how stock prices of E&P companies perform.
Natural gas prices have generally been weak since early 2006,
primarily due to unfavorable weather. A late chill in the most
recent winter helped improve the commodity's storage level to
some extent, but it still remains above historical levels. As
a result, while the commodity's price outlook has improved to
some extent, it still remains relatively tentative. In
addition to facing commodity price pressures, the E&Ps are
also dealing with a fairly steady cost creep, both from the
oilfield and personnel sides. So margins are getting squeezed,
and this is reflected in the stock prices. On balance, though,
we expect the group to do better this year compared to 2006.
What about for the Oilfield Service group?
This group is in pretty good shape, with respect to earnings
power and cash flows. We can look at this group by breaking it
up into three distinct sub-groups.
The first group contains the larger names that service the
industry on a global level - not just the U.S.-based and
international publicly traded oil and gas companies, but also
national oil companies, the state-owned oil companies of OPEC
and non-OPEC countries. These companies - some typical names
are Schlumberger (SLB), Baker-Hughes (BHI), and Halliburton
(HAL). We like all three, but prefer the latter two on
valuation grounds.
The other sub-group is exposed to drilling operations within
the on-shore U.S. So if the natural gas markets remain
relatively tentative and weak, then drilling operations in the
U.S. might suffer, and that might impact the results and the
stock performances of these companies. You have companies like
BJ Services (BJS) and Nabors (NBR) in this group. There is
some evidence that onshore drilling has been softening in
response to weakness in natural gas prices, which has been
weighing on these stocks for a while.
Then you have the offshore drillers. Of this group, the ones
who have fleets that can drill in deep waters, both in the
U.S. and internationally, are well positioned - both right now
and on a long-term basis. You have companies like Diamond
Offshore (DO) and Transocean (RIG) in this group.
So in a broader outlook, look for differentiated names within
the sector, but on the whole the outlook is pretty much
positive. This has been so in the recent past, as well, and is
expected to continue in 2007.
Read the complete ANALYST INTERVIEW article at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2525
Sheraz Mian is a senior analyst covering the oil & gas
industry for Zacks Equity Research.
****************************************************************
MORE FROM ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH...
Analyst Blog
Real-time market insights from Zacks Equity Research Analysts.
Stocks featured recently include Horizon Offshore (HOFF), Joy
Global (JOYG), Amdocs (DOX) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). See
their latest posts at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2582
BULL OF THE DAY
URS Corporation (URS) - Pricing to Improve.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2325
BEAR OF THE DAY
Natural Resource Partners (NRP) - Ripe for Pullback.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2326
EARNINGS PREVIEW
The Week of Apr 16 - Apr 20
Earnings season kicks into high gear this week:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3243
EARNINGS TRENDS
Expectations Set Low for First-Quarter Earnings
Even with a "normal" level of earnings surprises, S&P 500
earnings growth will struggle to make it to double digits this
quarter:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2396
Rating Upgrades (Premium)
Find out which stocks have been recently upgraded by Zacks
Equity Research:
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Zacks Equity Research Buys (Premium)
Read the reports on all of the stocks on the
Zacks Equity Research Buy List:
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****************************************************************
Learn More about Zacks Equity Research at
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Full access to Zacks Equity Research is now available on
Zacks.com:
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Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in a
portfolio managed by Zacks. Learn more at
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====================================================
4) ZACKS WEALTH MANAGEMENT
====================================================
Every week, Zacks Wealth Management provides informative
articles on how to build and protect wealth. Today's topic is:
Sequence of Return Risk
In past commentaries we discussed the optimal level of risk
based upon various personal criteria. In that discussion (or
any discussion) there are major assumptions we make about the
performance of various asset classes. It is important that we
keep in mind that these historical numbers are based on years
of data.
Your portfolio performance matters most during the period when
you have the most invested. We as professionals tend to make
the mistake of quoting historical returns of the market based
upon decade's worth of data whereas the average person plans
his or her life in three, five, or ten year segments at best.
Some studies have shown that since 1925, large and small-cap
stocks combined have lost money 31% of the time over one-year
rolling periods; over five years they have lost money 13% of
the time. Only over 20 year rolling periods did they not lose
money. So what is the best way to utilize various asset
classes within a shorter-time frame?
Remember the basic principle of investing - "buy low, sell
high!" If you are in the growth stage of your wealth, add to
the asset class that has been underperforming. This is
contrarian in nature but will have a significant impact on
long-term returns. Rebalancing your portfolio on a regular
basis will help you optimize this strategy.
It is more challenging for those already in retirement who are
in the distribution phase of their assets. Regardless, the
same principle applies. If the bond portion of your portfolio
is outperforming equities, you may want to make your
withdrawals from your bond allocation and allow for the equity
portion to recover.
It is always wise to have a cushion of cash and cash-related
positions so you are not forced into a situation of having to
draw assets out during a market correction. This reserve
should generally range from three to six months of living
expenses.
The bottom line is this: separate your decisions of what to
invest in or draw from based upon the relative performance of
the various asset classes in your portfolio. In the long-run,
this will have a dramatic impact on the actual returns of your
portfolio and also keep the portfolio from becoming too
unbalanced.
Feel free to contact me at ffiebig@zacks.com if you have any
questions or comments.
Fritz Fiebig a Certified Financial PlannerTM professional.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and
does not constitute legal or tax advice. Zacks Investment
Management, Inc. is not engaged in rendering legal, tax,
accounting or other professional services. Publication and
distribution of this article is not intended to create, and
the information contained herein does not constitute, an
attorney-client relationship. Do not act or rely upon the
information and advice given in this publication without
seeking the services of competent and professional legal, tax,
or accounting counsel.
CFP Board, a nonprofit regulatory organization, fosters
professional standards in personal financial planning so that
the public values, has access to and benefits from competent
and ethical financial planning. CFP Board owns the
certification marks CFP(R), Certified Financial Planner(TM) and
federally registered CFP (with flame logo), which it awards to
individuals who successfully complete initial and ongoing
certification requirements. CFP Board currently authorizes
more than 50,000 individuals to use these marks in the United
States. For more about CFP Board, visit
"http://www.cfp.net/"www.CFP.net.
Learn more about Zacks Wealth Management at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2994
==============================================
5) Best of the Zacks $100,000 Challenge
==============================================
Zacks is conducting a nationwide talent search to find the
very best stock pickers. The winner gets a $100,000 dream job
with Zacks! Sign up for free to join the competition, or just
read what stocks the leading players are trading on the Zacks
Challenge Player Blogs. http://at.zacks.com/?id=3469
Best of the Zacks Challenge Player Blogs
-----------------------------------------
Here's what the leading players are saying lately:
Zoroleheros (Rank #2 with $190,696)
MARKET IS OVERBOUGHT
The market continues to surprise me... it keeps on getting
higher and higher even if the fundamentals are deteriorating...
but it's true that if you price the US market in most of the
major currencies, it's been in a bear market for a while...
Read More or Comment on this post:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3491
Java J (Rank #106 with $125,020)
>> JAVA'S MARKET MUSINGS #32 <<
We are now right in the lower portion of overhead resistance,
and I would expect some sort of a pullback as sellers appear
in this price area going back to late February... it will be
important to observe how resilient the market will be on any
kind of profit taking decline...
Read More or Comment on this post:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3492
Beris (Rank #15 with $154,476)
WHEN THINKING LATIN, THINK BRAZIL (ELP)
The Mexican stock market has risen to record highs and many of
the Mexican stocks traded both in Mexico and the US have
reached high valuations. Brazil, on the other hand, along also
reaching highs, still has lower stock valuations...
Read More or Comment on this post:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3493
Read all the Player Blog posts at:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3482
****************************************************************
OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS
At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank
investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the
market. Our Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) List has generated the
following results for investors:
* +31.8% average annual return since 1988 versus +11.8% for
S&P 500
* Outperformed S&P 500 in 17 of the last 18 years
* +43.8% total return from 2000 to 2002 - the worst
bear market in over 60 years.
* +18% in 2005
And just as importantly, the Zacks #5 Rank stocks (Strong
Sell) list has alerted investors as to which stocks to dump
from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses.
To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first
understand how it works. That's why we created the free
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Or view the full list of Zacks #1 Rank (Premium) stocks at
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FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER
Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
* Broker Recommendation changes
* Earning Estimate revisions
* Earnings Announcements
* Zacks Rank changes
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these
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Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not,
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We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Zacks.com Profit from the
Pros" and we look forward to visiting with you again tomorrow.
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Senior Market Analyst
Zacks.com
p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros?
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The Zacks Performance Rank performance is the total return
(price changes + dividends) of equal weighted portfolios,
consisting of those stocks with the indicated Zacks Rank,
assuming zero transaction costs and monthly rebalancing.
Simulated results do not represent actual trading and may not
reflect the impact that economic and market factors might have
had on decision-making if an adviser were actually managing a
client's money.
*The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the
prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip
stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index
assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect
advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an
index.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future
results. Investors should always research companies and
securities before making any investments. Nothing herein
should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell
any security.
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4/17/2007 ***********************************************
ZACKS.COM PROFIT from the PROS
** Tactics that Work in Good and Bad Markets **
***********************************************
Today's Topics: Tuesday - April 17, 2007
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS - Today we highlight four new stocks
with a short-term "Buy" or "Strong Buy" recommendation:
Infosys (INFY), Estee Lauder (EL), Mattel (MAT) and Anixter
Int'l (AXE). Get these stories below.
2) PROFIT TRACKS - GROWTH AND INCOME - Find stocks that are
paying dividend yields of greater than 8% and have other
attractive fundamental attributes.
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH - In this very tight market, any
actual or perceived threat to crude oil supplies has a
pronounced price impact. Read the Analyst Interview and get
our Bull and Bear Stocks of the Day.
4) OPTIONS CENTER - The High Open Interest filter finds a
pharmaceutical giant that could make a good put play.
5) BEST OF THE ZACKS $100,000 CHALLENGE- Dreyerd highlights
three stocks that are quietly consolidating recent gains at
the 50-day moving average. Read this Simulator participant's
blog post, along with two competitors.
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archive of past issues? Go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=2372
Manage your Profit from the Pros subscription:
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==============================================
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS
==============================================
Zacks #1 Rank stocks average a 31.8% annual return. Every day
on Zacks.com we highlight four new Zacks Rank Buy stocks. Each
individual stock is chosen based on how well they match the
criteria for the four main schools of investing: Aggressive
Growth, Momentum, Growth & Income and Value.
Aggressive Growth - Infosys (INFY)
Infosys (INFY) posted a 70% rise in its fiscal fourth-quarter
net profit, driven by strong growth in outsourcing orders and
a tax gain. Read the full analysis on INFY at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2494
Growth & Income - The Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (EL)
The Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (EL), first presented as a
Growth & Income pick on Jan 18, has returned 23%. EL exceeded
analysts' earnings expectations in five consecutive quarters.
The company set plans for a $750 million accelerated
repurchase plan back in early-March. The company is currently
yielding 1.0%. Read the full analysis on EL at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2495
Momentum - Mattel Inc. (MAT)
Mattel Inc. (MAT) reported first-quarter EPS of three cents,
down from eight cents in the prior-year period, but eight
cents above expectations. Revenue for the quarter rose 19% to
$940.3 million, above consensus estimates of $847.8 million.
The prior-year period benefited from $57 million in tax
benefits related to audit settlements with foreign tax
authorities. Mattel has returned 7.1% since Zacks first
featured the company as a momentum pick on Mar 1. Read the
full analysis on MAT at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2496
Value - Anixter International, Inc. (AXE)
Anixter International, Inc. (AXE), presented as a Value pick
on Nov 21, has returned nearly 20%. AXE exceeded analysts'
earnings expectations in nine straight quarters. Moreover, it
has met or beat estimates over the past 16 quarters. Consensus
earnings estimates continue to trend higher for AXE. Read the
full analysis on AXE at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2497
Zacks Rank Resources
* Zacks Rank Homepage at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3097
* Zacks Elite: Discover Ben Zacks' hand picked #1 Rank stocks
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==============================================
2) PROFIT TRACKS
==============================================
Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading
strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today
we highlight...
Profit Tracks: Growth and Income
This screen looks for stocks that are paying dividend yields
of greater than 8% along with other attractive fundamental
attributes. Although this screen is based on a long-term and
lower risk approach to investing, it has a history of
outperforming the S&P 500.
Here are four stocks that make the grade for the Growth and
Income Profit Track:
Crystal River Capital, Inc. (CRZ), which is yielding 10.48%
right now, reported fourth-quarter operating earnings of 64
cents per share in late March. The result exceeded the
consensus estimate by 3% and outperformed the year ago result.
Quarterly gross revenue increased to $59.1 million, improving
on the previous year's $34.9 million. The company declared a
quarterly dividend of 68 cents per share in mid-March.
Continue your research on CRZ at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2389
Diana Shipping, Inc. (DSX) offers a current yield of 9.78%.
The company released its report for the fourth quarter in late
February. Earnings per share totaled 37 cents, which surpassed
the consensus estimate by 3% and outperformed the year-ago
result. Diana Shipping's fourth-quarter report included a
dividend declaration of 46 cents per share. Continue your
research on DSX at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2390
General Maritime Corp. (GMR) has a current dividend yield of
8.22%. In early March, the company declared a special one-time
dividend of $15.00 per share and a fourth-quarter dividend of
62 cents per share. GMR announced results for the fourth
quarter and full year in late February. Quarterly earnings per
share totaled 71 cents, beating the consensus estimate by a
penny. GMR referred to 2006 as "another year of impressive
results." The company noted that during the year, it
distributed sizeable dividends to shareholders, repurchased a
significant amount of stock and completed the monetization of
non-core assets, which transformed the GMR into an operator of
a fully double-hull fleet. Continue your research on GMR at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2391
Iowa Telecommunications Services, Inc. (IWA) satisfies the
criteria for this Profit Track with a current dividend yield
of 8.12%. In mid-March, the company declared a quarterly
dividend of $0.405 per share. Fourth-quarter results were
released in early March. IWA stated that results were very
strong, and were in line with its expectations for its rural
telecommunications business. Results for the first quarter
will be available on May 3, 2007. Continue your research on
IWA at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2392
To see the track details for this winning screen, go to
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2393
All the Profit Track strategies were created and backtested
using the Research Wizard software from Zacks Investment
Research. If you like this screening strategy, but want to
narrow down the list of stocks and even improve the
performance, then you should start a free trial to this
powerful stock picking tool. Learn more about the Research
Wizard free trial offer and our new special report "Top 10
Stock Screening Strategies" at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2394
****************************************************************
SCREEN OF THE WEEK
Screening for Stocks to Pick the Right Options
Kevin Matras explains why a good stock screener can be your
best tool for picking options:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2395
====================================================
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH
====================================================
In part one of our recent interview with senior energy analyst
Sheraz Mian, we asked him about where he sees oil prices
headed over the next quarter or two. Helpfully, he was
generous enough to offer his overall view of the energy sector
going forward, as well.
In some ways, it feels like we're repeating last year's cycle
- tensions in the Middle East lead to higher risk premiums and
higher oil and gasoline prices - just in the nick of time for
the busy U.S. driving season. In what way is this year
different from last year?
The broad contours of the global petroleum complex have
changed little since last year; i.e. supply is straining to
keep pace with ever rising demand. About half of the demand
growth this year and next will come from two markets, the U.S.
and China. With global demand growth this year roughly double
the expected non-OPEC supply increase, the overall supply-
demand picture remains tight, like the last couple of years.
More...
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Zacks Equity Research cont...
In this overall context of a very tight market, any actual or
perceived threat to crude oil supplies has a pronounced price
impact. The source and nature of the threat(s) change, but its
role in sustaining the risk premium remains the same. It was
hurricanes in 2005, the Lebanon war in 2006, and the more
recent stand-off between Iran and the U.K. While the release
of the British sailors has eased fears some, the security
situation is far from stable. Iran's nuclear program, Iraq's
insurgency, Venezuela's Chavez, and Nigeria's presidential
polls in a few days, just to name a few of the flashpoints -
any one of these can cause a spike in oil prices.
Do you expect gasoline prices to go as high as they did last
year? Higher, even?
With respect to gasoline prices, a lot will depend on crude
oil prices. As the primary input, crude oil prices account for
more than half of gasoline prices. And crude oil prices have
been anything but stable of late. Starting from the mid-
December 2006 level in the low-$60's per barrel, crude oil
prices dropped to around $50 per barrel and gone back up to
the mid- to low-$60's per barrel level again. While it's
difficult to forecast crude oil prices with any level of
confidence, we can say with a lot of certainty that price
volatility is a key attribute of the current oil market. We
are looking for prices to move up to the mid- to high-$60's
per barrel level during the summer, but pull back
subsequently; averaging around $62 per barrel for the year as
a whole.
We don't expect gasoline prices this summer to top last year's
level. Prices have moved up in the recent past, inline with
strength in crude oil prices and refinery disruptions. The
industry has adjusted to all of the fuel specification changes
that took effect last year and is expected to have stable and
predictable operations this year. We have to keep in mind
though that the U.S. refining complex is operating at almost
full capacity, with almost no space capacity. While imports
can and do cushion the system to some extent, major
disruptions will push prices higher.
To read the complete Analyst Interview, click
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2379
Sheraz Mian is a senior analyst covering the oil and gas
industries for Zacks Equity Research.
***********************************************************************
MORE FROM ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH...
Analyst Blog
Real-time market insights from Zacks Equity Research Analysts.
Stocks featured recently include Skyworks Solutions (SWKS),
Cache (CACH), BB&T Corporation (BBT) and Amylin
Pharmaceuticals (AMLN). Get their latest posts at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2584
BULL OF THE DAY
Sonic Innovations (SNCI) - Driving Strong Growth.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2376
BEAR OF THE DAY
UST, Inc. (UST) - Overvalued & Losing Share.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2377
EARNINGS PREVIEW
The Week of Apr 16 - Apr 20
Earnings season kicks into high gear this week:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3241
ZACKS EARNINGS TRENDS
Expectations Set Low for First-Quarter Earnings
Even with a "normal" level of earnings surprises, S&P 500
earnings growth will struggle to make it to double digits this
quarter:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2466
Rating Upgrades - New! (Premium)
Find out which stocks have been recently upgraded by
Zacks Equity Research:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2977
Zacks Equity Research Buys - New! (Premium)
Read the reports on all of the stocks on the
Zacks Equity Research Buy List:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2980
****************************************************************
Learn More about Zacks Equity Research at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2268
Full access to Zacks Equity Research is now available on
Zacks.com: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2981
Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in
a portfolio managed by Zacks. Learn more at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2706
==============================================
4) OPTIONS CENTER
==============================================
Zacks has partnered with the leading options experts,
Schaeffer's Investment Research, to provide you the best
options commentary, research, and trading tools on the market
today.
Free Online Options Research at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2664
Zacks/Schaeffer's Options Trading service at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2665
Here is this week's article on how Schaeffer's Tools can help
you Profit with Options.
Last week, we examined the Zacks Put/Call Open Interest Ratio
Filter, which offered an opportunity to examine MetLife (MET).
This week, I'll take a look at the High Open Interest filter.
What is the High Open Interest filter? Well, the filter takes
a look at stocks that have high open interest at a given
strike. This filter is a useful tool, because high put open
interest can provide a layer of support while high call open
interest can provide a layer of resistance. We often use open
interest information in conjunction with other technical
trends to determine what lies ahead for a given stock. Today,
we will be looking at the call side of the high open interest
filter. Remember, high call open interest can act as
resistance.
Before looking at a particular stock, let's address our
Schaeffer's methodology. We are contrarian-based investors,
indicating that we want to see skepticism toward an
outperforming stock. On the other hand, we want to see
optimism toward an underperformer. In our eyes, too much
optimism is a sign that nearly everyone who wants to invest in
a particular stock already has. Just because a stock sees
substantial optimism doesn't mean that we will blindly short
that particular security; we need to see some negative price
action or a major catalyst for a downside move in order to
pull the trigger in most cases. Other indicators we use to
measure overall sentiment include short interest, magazine
cover stories, media comments, and analyst ratings.
Today's examination of the filter turned up pharmaceutical
firm Pfizer (PFE).
According to Hoover's, PFE fabricates a number of
pharmaceuticals for a variety of ailments. PFE's best-known
products include Celebrex (for pain management), Zoloft (to
treat depression), Lipitor (to help lower cholesterol), and
Viagra (for, well, you know). PFE also produces
pharmaceuticals for your pets, including antiparasitic
Revolution.
Fundamentally, the past two days have been nice to PFE. On
Thursday, April 12, BMO Capital Markets started the
pharmaceutical firm at "market perform." Today, the stock has
advanced more than 1% on the back of good news from fellow Dow
pharmaceutical component Merck (MRK).
While the positive reaction to the news is nice, the heavy
call open interest at the 27.50 strike (which landed PFE on
the filter's return list, thanks to the 83,873 June 27.50
contracts out there) could prove too formidable for the stock
to topple. Yes, there is potential support from various
trendlines, support that was not in play until Friday
morning's jump, but will it be enough to break through 27.50?
I contend no. The stock was recently rejected by the 27.50
level, which sent it spiraling to support at the 24.50 level.
The 27.50 level's resistance goes back further than just a
year ago. In fact, 27.50 turned the stock away in early 2005
as well. I worry that the extra layer of resistance leveled
by the heavy call open interest could prove too tough for the
stock to break.
On a final technical note, the Dow component has not been able
to cash in on the recent prosperity of the venerable index.
After trending along with the Dow for the first years of the
latest century, PFE split in August 2004 to blaze its own
path. Unfortunately, that path led lower. The good news is
that it seems there may be a measure of support in the 24.50
region.
Given the heavy amount of call open interest, I am a bit
surprised to see PFE's Schaeffer's put/call open interest
(SOIR) slightly on the bearish side of the spectrum. PFE's
SOIR percentile ranking of 65 suggests that the stock could
find itself subject to a bit of buying pressure, which could
push it higher, should sentiment in the options pits shift to
the bullish end of the equation.
SOIR percentile ranking aside, there is a chance for
downgrades, as according to Zacks, six analysts rate PFE a
"buy" or better. Downgrades from this bunch, or the eight
analysts sitting on the "hold" fence, could serve to push the
stock lower.
If the stock snaps back into its down-trending ways, there is
little in the way of potential short-covering support to help
buoy the stock. Less than 1% of PFE's float is sold short,
and it would take one day to buy back the shorted shares at
the stock's average daily trading volume.
PFE may have found a bit of strength of late, but I think the
overall trend is going to lead the stock lower. Keep an eye
on PFE, even paper trade it; a rejection at 27.50 could result
in a downtrend that could net a tidy profit from a put play.
Make sure to continue utilizing all of the valuable filters on
these pages for more money-making ideas. Moreover, don't be
afraid to make a few paper trades in order to see what
strategy works best for you. Please remember that, when it
comes to options, the majority of your trades are going to be
losers. Don't get discouraged, because that's the beauty of
the leverage that options provide. It takes only a few winners
out of every 10 trades to make you a very happy investor.
Thanks for reading, best of luck in your trading!
To learn more about the High Open Interest filter, click here:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=799
Discover all the tools and commentary available from the
Zacks.com Options Center at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2382
Zacks Rank + Options = Trading Success!
Leverage the timeliness of Zacks #1 Rank stocks with options
trades that maximize profits and minimize risks. Learn more
about our new Options Trading service at
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==============================================
5) Best of the Zacks $100,000 Challenge
==============================================
Zacks is conducting a nationwide talent search to find the
very best stock pickers. The winner gets a $100,000 dream job
with Zacks! Sign up for free to join the competition, or just
read what stocks the leading players are trading on the Zacks
Challenge Player Blogs. http://at.zacks.com/?id=3504
Best of the Zacks Challenge Player Blogs
-----------------------------------------
Here's what the leading players are saying lately:
Dreyerd (Rank #305 with $114,890)
QUIETLY POISED FOR BLAST OFF AT THE FIFTY DAY MOVING AVERAGE
(SFLY, WIRE, PALM)
Check out these three charts. They are chart triplets. Each
one has quietly consolidated recent gains at the 50-day moving
average. I love the set up on these stocks for two big
reasons...
Read More or Comment on this post:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3505
Beris (Rank #12 with $159,183)
BREAKOUT GEMS RACING TO NEW HIGHS (CUP,HL,TOT,NAK,URZ)
The following stocks just broke out of their trading ranges.
After some sideway trading and timely consolidation, supply at
given prices has dried out, and they are all set to push above
the trading range that they are currently in...
Read More or Comment on this post:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3506
Lilnev2000 (Rank #4 with $179,331)
RUBICON MINERALS BREAKING OUT TO NEW HIGHS (RBY)
Rubicon Minerals controls over 260 square kilometers of land
in the famous Red Lake gold camp of Ontario, Canada. The stock
started to take off earlier this year when...
Read More or Comment on this post:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3507
Read all the Player Blog posts at:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3504
****************************************************************
OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS
At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank
investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the
market. Our Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) List has generated the
following results for investors:
* +31.8% average annual return since 1988 versus +11.8% for
S&P 500
* Outperformed S&P 500 in 17 of the last 18 years
* +43.8% total return from 2000 to 2002 - the worst
bear market in over 60 years.
* +18% in 2005
And just as importantly, the Zacks #5 Rank stocks (Strong
Sell) list has alerted investors as to which stocks to dump
from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses.
To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first
understand how it works. That's why we created the free
special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of
Earnings Estimate Revisions. Download a free copy now to
prosper in the years to come by visiting
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2385
Or view the full list of Zacks #1 Rank (Premium) stocks at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2383
FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER
Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
* Broker Recommendation changes
* Earning Estimate revisions
* Earnings Announcements
* Zacks Rank changes
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these
changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000
investors who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio
Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not,
then sign up now to get this vital information sent to you
daily and improve your portfolio's performance. Did we mention
it's free? Get started now by going to
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2386
---------------------------------------------------------
We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Zacks.com Profit from the
Pros" and we look forward to visiting with you again tomorrow.
REFER-A-FRIEND
If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along
to a friend. Simply forward them the link below to sign up for
their own free subscription. If you're reading a forwarded
copy, sign up for your own, so you get this wealth of
information every week. Just click on the link below. THANKS!
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2373
Regards and Happy Investing,
Charles Rotblut, CFA
Senior Market Analyst
Zacks.com
p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros?
To find out how we will help you become a more
successful investor, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=2388
The Zacks Performance Rank performance is the total return
(price changes + dividends) of equal weighted portfolios,
consisting of those stocks with the indicated Zacks Rank,
assuming zero transaction costs and monthly rebalancing.
Simulated results do not represent actual trading and may not
reflect the impact that economic and market factors might have
had on decision-making if an adviser were actually managing a
client's money.
*The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the
prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip
stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index
assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect
advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an
index.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future
results. Investors should always research companies and
securities before making any investments. Nothing herein
should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell
any security.
To contact us by mail:
Zacks Investment Research
Attn: Profit from the Pros
111 N. Canal St., Suite 1101
Chicago, IL 60606
To unsubscribe from receiving "Zacks.com Profit from the Pros"
e-mail newsletter, click here http://at.zacks.com/?id=2375
4/16/2007 ***********************************************
ZACKS.COM PROFIT from the PROS
** Tactics that Work in Good and Bad Markets **
***********************************************
Today's Topics: Monday - April 16, 2007
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS - Today we highlight four new stocks with
a short-term "Buy" or "Strong Buy" recommendation: Zumiez (ZUMZ),
Goodrich Corp. (GR), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT) and Aspreva
Pharmaceuticals (ASPV). Get these stories below.
2) PROFIT TRACKS - UPGRADES AND REVISIONS - Discover stocks with
positive EPS estimate revisions and brokerage rating upgrades.
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH - Earnings season kicks into high gear this week.
Read the Earnings Preview and get our Bull and Bear Stocks of the Day.
4) RESEARCH DIGEST - Stocks recently upgraded by brokerage analysts include
U.S. Steel (X), Peabody Energy (BTU), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and
Applied Materials (AMAT).
5) FEATURED EXPERTS - As there is little hope for a rate cut anytime soon,
Gregory Spear says the greater concern is the slowing economy. Read this
expert's commentary.
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****************************************************************
Want to view the online version of Profit from the Pros or the
archive of past issues? Go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=2314
Manage your Profit from the Pros subscription:
* Free Subscription http://at.zacks.com/?id=2311
* Change of Address http://at.zacks.com/?id=2315
* Unsubscribe http://at.zacks.com/?id=2313
==============================================
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS
==============================================
Zacks #1 Rank stocks average a 31.8% annual return. Every day on
Zacks.com we highlight four new Zacks Rank Buy stocks. Each individual stock
is chosen based on how well they match the criteria for the four main schools of
investing: Aggressive Growth, Momentum, Growth & Income and Value.
Aggressive Growth - Zumiez (ZUMZ)
Zumiez (ZUMZ) is experiencing phenomenal growth. The company has
exceeded earnings estimates in six out of the past seven quarters.
Year-over-year growth has averaged over 60% over the past three
quarters. Four analysts have raised their estimates for this year. Earnings
estimates have been on the rise as well. Over the past 90 days, this year's
estimates have increased six cents to 96 cents per share. The company has
a long-term growth rate of 28.71%. Read the full analysis
on ZUMZ at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2510
Growth & Income - Goodrich Corporation (GR)
Goodrich Corporation (GR), which was first featured as a Growth & Income
stock on Aug 8, 2006, continues to shine. The company topped analysts'
earnings expectations in 12 out of the past 14 quarters. After reporting solid
fourth-quarter and full-year 2006 results, GR raised both its revenue and
profit guidance for this year. The company is currently yielding 1.6% and
its return on equity tops that of the industry average-17% compared
to 11%. Read the full analysis on GR at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2511
Momentum - Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT)
Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT) is up 21.2% for 2007 on
strong industry and company fundamentals. With the stock at 52-week highs,
the underlying trend is clearly to the upside with no resistance to impede upward
price action. However, the Apr 26 earnings report will largely decide whether
momentum continues to be positive in the short-term. Read the full analysis
on POT at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2512
Value - Aspreva Pharmaceuticals Corporation (ASPV)
Aspreva Pharmaceuticals Corporation (ASPV) beat the Street's earnings estimate
four quarters in a row by an average margin of 41.0%. In early February,
the Zacks #1 Rank company reported impressive results for both the fourth
quarter and full year of 2006. Consensus estimates for both this quarter and
the full year are up over the past two months. ASPV has a price-to-book ratio
of 2.7, compared to 4.0 for the industry, and its PEG ratio currently sits at 0.31.
Read the full analysis on ASPV at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2513
Zacks Rank Resources
* Zacks Rank Homepage at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3095
* Zacks Elite: Discover Ben Zacks' hand picked #1 Rank stocks on his
Timely Buys list at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2538
* Zacks Rank Breakout Trader: When a stock moves quickly to a Zacks #1 Rank,
this trading service uses that turnaround to make 55% a year.
Learn more at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=3501
* Zacks Options Trader: Combine the timeliness of Zacks #1 Rank stocks with the
explosive profit potential of options. Learn more at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2700
* Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in a portfolio managed
by Zacks. Learn more at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2539
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==============================================
2) PROFIT TRACKS
==============================================
Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading
strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today
we highlight...
Profit Track: Upgrades and Revisions
This strategy focuses primarily on Positive EPS Estimate
Revisions and Brokerage Rating Upgrades. Over the last 20
years Zacks Investment Research has proven that earnings
estimate revisions are the most powerful force driving stock
prices. Studies have also shown that stocks receiving upward
EPS revisions tend to receive additional upward revisions in
the future. Then consider that stocks receiving these upward
revisions generally have brokers upgrading their Ratings,
which is also a proven mover of stock prices. There are other
parameters to this strategy, but the Rating Upgrades and
positive EPS Revisions are the two powerful active
ingredients.
Here are four stocks that make the grade for the Upgrades and Revisions
Profit Track:
Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) is a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy)
company that has seen earnings per share growth of 19% over
the past five years. The company recently reported fiscal second-quarter
results, stating that it once again produced record results that exceeded its
internal expectations. Earnings per share of 55 cents eclipsed the previous
year's second-quarter total of 32 cents and topped the consensus estimate
by 12%. Continue your research on AYI at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2254
General Cable Corp. (BGC), another Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) name,
will release financial results for the first quarter on May 2, 2007. In
mid-February the company completed its acquisition of Jiangyin Huaming
Specialty Cable Co. Ltd., a Chinese manufacturer of specialty automotive
and industrial cable products. In early February, the company posted
fourth-quarter earnings of 67 cents per share. The result surpassed
analysts' expectations by 14% and soared past the previous year's
total. Revenues climbed to $925.3 million from last year's $617.5 million.
BGC experienced earnings per share growth of 78% over the past five
years. Continue your research on BGC at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2255
Comtech Telecommunications Corp. (CMTL), also a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy)
company, put together a five-year growth track record of 81%. The company
announced fiscal second-quarter earnings of 68 cents per share. The result
outpaced last year's 50 cents and surpassed the consensus estimate by 48%.
Net sales for the second quarter increased to $111.4 million from the
year-prior $95.7 million. Continue your research
on CMTL at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2256
Middleby Corp. (MIDD) rounds out this list of Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks.
Middleby posted record net sales and earnings for the fourth quarter. Earnings
totaled $1.34 per share, exceeding the consensus estimate by 13% and beating
the previous year's result. Quarterly net sales improved by 27.8% on a year-over-year
basis. During the past five years, MIDD produced earnings per share growth of 68%.
Continue your research on MIDD at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2257
To see the track details for this winning screen, go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=2258
All the Profit Track strategies were created and backtested
using the Research Wizard software from Zacks Investment
Research. If you like this screening strategy, but want to
narrow down the list of stocks and even improve the
performance, then you should start a free trial to this
powerful stock picking tool. Learn more about the Research
Wizard free trial offer and our new special report "Top 10
Stock Screening Strategies" at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2307
****************************************************************
SCREEN OF THE WEEK
Screening for Stocks to Pick the Right Options
Kevin Matras explains why a good stock screener can be your best tool for picking options:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2259
====================================================
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH
====================================================
Earnings season has officially kicked off with Aloca (AA) posting first-quarter
earnings per share of 79 cents. The result beat analysts' expectations by
two cents. Saying that this week will be a busy one, when it comes to earnings
reports, is a definite understatement. 253 companies are scheduled to report.
Looking at the full expectations for the first quarter, a substantial slowdown in
year-over-year earnings growth is expected almost across the board. The
median firm in the S&P 500 is expected to post earnings that are just 7.1% higher
than a year ago, well below the 12.7% growth posted in the fourth quarter.
More...
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Best of Zacks Equity Research continued...
This week's calendar of economic events is a little on the heavy side as well.
March retail sales will be released today. They rose 0.1% in February.
Tuesday brings March CPI (February CPI jumped 0.4%) and last month's
housing starts. Starts of new homes jumped to an annual rate of 1.53 million last
month from the revised 1.40 million pace in January, the lowest in nine years.
Industrial production/capacity utilization data is also on the Tuesday docket.
There are no economic indicators scheduled for either Wednesday or Friday.
Companies That Could Surprise During the Week of Apr 16 to Apr 20
When it comes to topping the consensus earnings estimate, Piper Jaffray
Companies (PJC) usually comes through in a big way. PJC beat the Street's
estimate in seven consecutive quarters by an average margin of 39.6%. In six
out of the seven quarters, the company managed to surprise to the upside by
a double-digit percentage. Analysts are calling for first-quarter profits of 78 cents
per share. This marks a five-cent jump over the past 30 days and a three-cent
improvement over the past week. Upward revisions were submitted by two of
the four covering analysts over the past month. One analyst upped his estimate
in the past seven days. PJC recently announced that it will purchase Fiduciary
Asset Management LLC for $66 million in cash in a move to enter the asset
management business. PJC is scheduled to report its first-quarter results
on Wednesday, Apr 18.
As the airline industry heads into the strong spring season, many carriers will
begin to reap the rewards associated with cost cutting measures they have been
undertaking. Consensus earnings estimates have shot upward for
Continental Airlines, Inc. (CAL). Profit forecasts for this quarter currently sit
at eight cents per share. This marks a 12-cent improvement when compared
to the consensus of 60 days prior. Over the past seven days, estimates have
risen by two cents. Seven of the 11 covering analysts boosted their estimates
over the past 30 days. CAL exceeded analysts' earnings expectations over the
past four quarters by an average margin of 26.7%. In its most recent quarter,
the Street was calling for a loss of 15 cents per share. CAL wound up losing
four cents, equating to an impressive 73.3% positive earnings surprise.
The company recently reported that its March traffic climbed 3.4% on
stronger trans-Atlantic travel. CAL is scheduled to report its first-quarter results
on Thursday, Apr 19.
To read the complete Earnings Preview, click
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3234
Jim Licato is a Senior Analyst at Zacks.com
****************************************************************
MORE FROM ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH...
Analyst Blog
Real-time market insights from Zacks Equity Research Analysts. Stocks featured
recently include MAF Bancorp (MAFB), Public Storage (PSA), salesforce.com (CRM)
and Infosys (INFY). See their latest posts at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2589
BULL OF THE DAY
salesforce.com (CRM) - Huge Potential Market.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2250
BEAR OF THE DAY
King Pharmaceuticals (KG) - Product Concerns.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2251
ZACKS ANALYST INTERVIEW
Don't Get Excited Over Retail Results
We firmly believe some of the strength in March sales will come at the expense of April sales:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2723
EARNINGS TRENDS
Earnings Season Kicks Off with Subdued Expectations
The long streak of double-digit quarters is likely to end with only the materials sector
currently expected to beat the 10% year-over-year growth level:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2252
Rating Upgrades - New! (Premium)
Find out which stocks have been recently upgraded by
Zacks Equity Research:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2959
Zacks Equity Research Buys - New! (Premium)
Read the reports on all of the stocks on the
Zacks Equity Research Buy List:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2960
****************************************************************
Learn More about Zacks Equity Research at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2253
Full access to Zacks Equity Research is now available on
Zacks.com: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2961
Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in a
portfolio managed by Zacks. Learn more at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2699
==============================================
4) Research Digest
==============================================
What is Wall Street saying about your stocks? You'll find the answer in our
exclusive Research Digest reports. Here is a synopsis of stocks with recent
broker upgrades:
United States Steel Corporation (X) has watched its Average Broker
Recommendation rise to 2.42 of late. According to Zacks Research Digest,
analysts appreciate that the company's domestic operations are fully self-sufficient
in iron ore, which is seen as an advantage with international prices increasing.
Also, its product mix is improving as U.S. Steel is upgrading its facilities to focus on
value-added products such as cold-rolled and coated carbon steel. Other factors
that the analysts polled at Research Digest mentioned were its ability to defend its
margins and its acquisitions both at home and abroad. One of those recent acquisitions
was Lone Star Technologies. U.S. Steel, which is a Zacks #2 Rank stock, is scheduled
to report its first-quarter results on Apr 24. Read the Research Digest report
on X (Premium) at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3401
Peabody Energy's (BTU) Average Broker Recommendation is currently up to 1.68.
Analysts polled by Zacks Research Digest believe the company's performance over
the past five years sets the stage for significant cyclical cash flow and earnings
improvement over the next three years. Analysts also believe that Peabody
Energy remains strong enough to capitalize on promising long-term coal fundamentals.
Finally, new coal fired power generation; coal conversion technologies and growth in
emerging markets are seen as primary drivers of demand. Peabody Energy will
release first-quarter numbers on Apr 19. Read the Research Digest report
on BTU (Premium) at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3402
Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ) is a Zacks #2 Rank company as earnings
estimates for the year ending in October have risen 4.7% over the past month.
Its Average Broker Recommendation is up to 1.95 of late. The computing and
imaging giant is one of the largest and most diversified technology companies
in the world; leads in market share in inkjet and laser printers; and is among the
market leaders in PCs, servers, storage and IT services. According to analysts
polled at Zacks Research Digest, Hewlett-Packard is posting strong sales and
shifting focus to improving margins and earnings consistency in all operating
divisions. More specifically, several analysts were positive about the Services
business, with potential for growth in the outsourcing business in particular.
Read the Research Digest report on HPQ (Premium) at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3403
Applied Materials' (AMAT) was highlighted in the Broker Upgrades Commentary
in mid-March. Since then, its Average Broker Recommendation has risen further
to 1.7. According to Zacks Research Digest, analysts appreciate that AMAT is not
solely dependent on equipment revenue, and could experience higher growth
rates than its peers if the flat panel display and service sectors outgrow the organic
equipment industry. While these two segments are not expected to completely
offset weakness in the semiconductor business, they provide a potential for upturn
and downside protection in the case of a downturn. Read the Research Digest
report on AMAT (Premium) at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3404
See all Research Digest Reports (Premium)
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2965
Broker Research Resources
All Star Analyst Portfolio
These are the best stock picks from the best stock pickers on Wall
Street (aka 5 Star Analysts)
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2966
Broker Rating Upgrades
Find out which stocks brokers have recently upgraded.
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2967
==============================================
5) FEATURED EXPERTS
==============================================
Here we cast the spotlight on timely Featured Expert
commentaries that recently appeared on Zacks.com.
No Rate Cut Anytime Soon
In the latest release of The Spear Report Professional Edition, Gregory
Spear says the greater concern is the slowing economy.
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2968
Full Speed Ahead
Ian Wyatt highlights a company that has posted a steady rise in sales
since it began reporting in 2002. http://at.zacks.com/?id=271
Keep in Mind Long-Term Uptrends
In the latest edition of All Star Fund Trader, Ron Rowland discusses some
sector trends worth noting.
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2970
****************************************************************
OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS
At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank
investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the
market. Our Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) List has generated the
following results for investors:
* +31.8% average annual return since 1988 versus +11.8% for
S&P 500
* Outperformed S&P 500 in 17 of the last 18 years
* +43.8% total return from 2000 to 2002 - the worst
bear market in over 60 years.
* +18% in 2005
And just as importantly, the Zacks #5 Rank stocks (Strong
Sell) list has alerted investors as to which stocks to dump
from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses.
To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first
understand how it works. That's why we created the free
special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of
Earnings Estimate Revisions. Download a free copy now to
prosper in the years to come by visiting
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2309
Or view the full list of Zacks #1 Rank (Premium) stocks at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2266
FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER
Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
* Broker Recommendation changes
* Earning Estimate revisions
* Earnings Announcements
* Zacks Rank changes
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these
changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000
investors who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio
Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not,
then sign up now to get this vital information sent to you
daily and improve your portfolio's performance. Did we mention
it's free? Get started now by going to
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2310
---------------------------------------------------------
We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Zacks.com Profit from the
Pros" and we look forward to visiting with you again tomorrow.
REFER-A-FRIEND
If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along
to a friend. Simply forward them the link below to sign up for
their own free subscription. If you're reading a forwarded
copy, sign up for your own, so you get this wealth of
information every week. Just click on the link below. THANKS!
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2311
Regards and Happy Investing,
Charles Rotblut, CFA
Senior Market Analyst
Zacks.com
p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros?
To find out how we will help you become a more
successful investor, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=2312
The Zacks Performance Rank performance is the total return
(price changes + dividends) of equal weighted portfolios,
consisting of those stocks with the indicated Zacks Rank,
assuming zero transaction costs and monthly rebalancing.
Simulated results do not represent actual trading and may not
reflect the impact that economic and market factors might have
had on decision-making if an adviser were actually managing a
client's money.
*The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the
prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip
stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index
assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect
advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future
results. Investors should always research companies and
securities before making any investments. Nothing herein
should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell
any security.
To contact us by mail:
Zacks Investment Research
Attn: Profit from the Pros
111 N. Canal St., Suite 1101
Chicago, IL 60606
To unsubscribe from receiving "Zacks.com Profit from the Pros"
e-mail newsletter, go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=2313
4/13/2007 ***********************************************
ZACKS.COM PROFIT from the PROS
** Tactics that Work in Good and Bad Markets
*************************************************
Today's Topics: Friday - April 13, 2007
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS - Today we highlight four new stocks
with a short-term "Buy" or "Strong Buy" recommendation: Orchid
Cellmark (ORCH), Longs Drug Stores (LDG), Fresenius Medical
Care (FMS) and Resource Capital (RSO). Get these stories
below.
2) PROFIT TRACKS - EARNINGS AND MARGINS - If you are searching
for earnings growth and net profit margins, check out this
screening strategy.
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH - Risks of inflation and a slowing
economy are moving higher at the same time. Read the Analyst
Interview article and get our Bull and Bear Stocks of the Day.
4) INVESTMENT IDEAS - The weight-loss industry has become one
of the market's more profitable growth stories. Learn about a
couple of stocks that receive a clean bill of health.
5) FEATURED EXPERTS - Richard Rhodes, from The Rhodes Report,
explains that in terms of the short-term technicals, he finds
the current rally "weak."
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Reshapes the Corn Market, courtesy of American Atlantic
Financial. See the effects of new technology, new demand.
Qualify Now.
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3406
****************************************************************
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Manage your Profit from the Pros subscription:
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* Unsubscribe http://at.zacks.com/?id=2286
==============================================
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS
==============================================
Zacks #1 Rank stocks average a 31.8% annual return. Every day
on Zacks.com we highlight four new Zacks Rank Buy stocks. Each
individual stock is chosen based on how well they match the
criteria for the four main schools of investing: Aggressive
Growth, Momentum, Growth & Income and Value.
Aggressive Growth - Orchid Cellmark, Inc. (ORCH)
Orchid Cellmark, Inc. (ORCH) has soared past analyst estimates
in each of the past three quarters. The average surprise has
been about 80% over that time. ORCH is still expected to lose
money this year, but estimates have been increasing. Over the
past 60 days, this year's numbers have risen seven cents to a
loss of 10 cents per share. Keep in mind that only one analyst
follows the company. The stock sports a strong growth rate of
30%. Read the full analysis on ORCH at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2505
Growth & Income - Longs Drug Stores Corporation (LDG)
Longs Drug Stores Corporation (LDG), which was first presented
as a Growth and Income pick on Aug 31, has returned over 14%.
The company beat analysts' earnings expectations for 12
straight quarters and in 15 out of the past 16. Consensus
earnings estimates are up over the past 30 days. This Zacks #1
Rank stock has a current dividend yield of 1.1%. Read the full
analysis on LDG at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2506
Momentum - Fresenius Medical Care (FMS)
Fresenius Medical Care (FMS) has beaten the S&P 500 for the
last four years and looks to repeat in 2007. Consistent
earnings momentum, upward estimate revisions and analyst
upgrades should continue to support the stock's underlying
trend, with a breakout above the price channel being a
particularly bullish signal. Read the analysis of FMS at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2507
Value - Resource Capital Corp. (RSO)
Resource Capital Corp. (RSO), a Zacks #1 Rank stock, reported
solid results for the fourth quarter of 2006 back in early
March. Consensus earnings estimates for both this year and
next have risen over the past 30 days. On Mar 20, the Board of
Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of 39 cents per
common share of stock. RSO is currently yielding 9.74% and has
a price-to-book ratio of only 1.2. Read the full analysis on
RSO at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2508
Zacks Rank Resources
* Zacks Rank Homepage at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3113
* Zacks Elite: Discover Ben Zacks' hand picked #1 Rank stocks
on his Timely Buys list at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2554
* Zacks Rank Breakout Trader: When a stock moves quickly to a
Zacks #1 Rank, this trading service uses that turnaround to
make 55% a year. Learn more at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=3497
* Zacks Options Trader: Combine the timeliness of Zacks #1
Rank stocks with the explosive profit potential of options.
Learn more at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2695
* Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in
a portfolio managed by Zacks. Learn more at
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2) PROFIT TRACKS
==============================================
Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading
strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today
we highlight...
Profit Tracks: Earnings and Margins
This Profit Track goes to the heart of fundamental investing
by finding companies with healthy earnings. The main
ingredients are the search for Earnings Growth and Net Profit
Margins. Then for good measure we make sure earnings estimates
are moving higher which is a strong indicator of future
performance and that brokerage firms are positively rating the
stock.
Here are four stocks that make the grade for the Earnings and
Margins Profit Track:
DXP Enterprises, Inc. (DXPE) reported fourth-quarter and full-
year results in mid-March. Earnings per share for the fourth
quarter totaled 61 cents. The result outpaced analysts'
expectations by 9%. The company noted that 2006 was a very
successful year, adding that its DXP Service Centers, B2B
Solutions and Innovative Pumping solutions had higher year-
over-year sales and profits for the year. DXPE stated that it
enters 2007 with confidence that its strategic sales and
operational plans will continue to be successful at gaining
market share and increasing profits. Year 2006 earnings
increased 121% from the previous year. Continue your research
on DXPE at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2290
Leesport Financial Corp. (FLPB) sports earnings per share
growth of 6% for the most recently completed year, versus the
year-prior. Leesport Financial is profitable as evidenced by
its net margin of 0.11. In late January, the company released
financial results for the fourth quarter and year 2006. FLPB
stated that its annual earnings growth provides further
validation of its diversified financial services strategy.
Continue your research on FLPB at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2291
First United Corporation (FUNC) is another profitable company
that offers a net margin of 0.13 and year-over-year earnings
growth of 3%. First United announced fourth-quarter and 2006
results in late February. Earnings per share for the full year
totaled $2.05, compared to $1.99 for 2005. Quarterly earnings
of 56 cents per share exceeded the consensus estimate by 8%.
Continue your research on FUNC at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2292
New Frontier Media Inc. (NOOF) meets the criteria of this
Profit Track as evidenced by its net margin of 0.24 and year-
over-year earnings growth of 2% for the fiscal year. In early
February, the company posted fiscal third-quarter earnings of
14 cents per share, eclipsing the year-prior 12 cents and
matching the consensus. NOOF mentioned that quarterly results
were driven largely by the strong performance of its newly
acquired content production group, MRG Entertainment. New
Frontier Media added that MRG delivered an unexpectedly large
quantity of titles this quarter, some of which were delivered
earlier than originally forecast. Continue your research on
NOOF at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2293
To see the track details for this winning screen, go to
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2294
All the Profit Track strategies were created and backtested
using the Research Wizard software from Zacks Investment
Research. If you like this screening strategy, but want to
narrow down the list of stocks and even improve the
performance, then you should start a free trial to this
powerful stock picking tool. Learn more about the Research
Wizard free trial offer and our new special report "Top 10
Stock Screening Strategies" at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2295
****************************************************************
SCREEN OF THE WEEK
Screening for Stocks to Pick the Right Options
Kevin Matras explains why a good stock screener can be your
best tool for picking options:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2289
====================================================
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH
====================================================
After reviewing the minutes to the most recent Fed meeting,
Director of Equity Research Dirk van Dijk, CFA was on hand to
give us his perspective on those minutes' meanings.
The minutes on the FOMC meeting came out Wednesday, and we
wanted to talk a little about it. Can you give us an
overview?
Essentially, the key message is that the risks of higher
inflation are going up at the same time that the risks of a
slower economy are going up. And it's not like one has gone
up more than the other, so that net/net the Fed is likely to
stay on hold [regarding interest rates]. They just go higher
and higher on the tightrope with no net underneath.
More...
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Zacks Equity Research continued...
You've said that you still expect the next Fed move to be a
cut. Does that still hold, or is there some reason to think
this may change?
I still think the next move is going to be a cut, but the time
frame on that keeps getting moved back and back and back. The
Fed was actually making noises as if the next move might be an
increase, but that's really hard for me to see how that works
out barring a real acceleration in inflation. And the Fed
does expect inflation to drift down, it's just been more
stubborn than expected.
On a year-over-year basis, we're running at about 2.7%
inflation, which is not the end of the world. But it is
persistently higher than the comfort level the Fed has, which
is under 2%. The problem is that over the long run, higher
inflation does not help the economy produce a higher output or
lower unemployment. Short-run, it does. But over the long
run, it can be disastrous in that you may have a ratchet-up
effect.
So 2.5% inflation is not the end of the world, but a slowing
economy could hurt a lot of people. [The Fed figures] we'll
just accept the 2 1/2 % inflation, which then turns to 3%
inflation, and you still haven't gotten - over the long-run -
any real improvement in the output or the employment side of
things.
It really is the job of the Fed to be vigilant about
inflation, and a stable dollar over the long term is a much
healthier situation. So I understand where they're coming
from. Also, if they cut too soon, that is going to put the
dollar under enormous pressure. And while a slowly declining
dollar is a good thing - after all, we are still running a
massive trade deficit - it is, by definition, a direct drag on
economic growth. A sudden adjustment to the value of the
dollar, which is, after all, the international reserve
currency that the world runs on, if that were to go down the
tubes fast, it could cause all sorts of havoc. That's a
prospect I think the Fed is very nervous about setting off, so
they really have to be cautious about easing too soon.
Read the complete ANALYST INTERVIEW article at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2306
Dirk van Dijk, CFA is the Director of Zacks Equity Research.
****************************************************************
MORE FROM ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH...
Analyst Blog
Real-time market insights from Zacks Equity Research Analysts.
Stocks featured recently include Tractor Supply (TSCO),
Synopsys (SNPS), Genentech (DNA) and MAF Bancorp (MAFB). See
their latest posts at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2583
BULL OF THE DAY
Amphenol Corp. (APH) - Expect Strong Earnings.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2281
BEAR OF THE DAY
Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR) - Overbought on News.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2282
ZACKS INDUSTRY RANK
First-Quarter Surprises for Oil Refiners?
Brokerage analysts are continuing to raise first-quarter and
full-year profit projections on oil refiners:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2362
EARNINGS TRENDS
Earnings Season Kicks Off with Subdued Expectations
The long streak of double-digit quarters is likely to end,
with only the materials sector currently expected to beat the
10% year-over-year growth level: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2364
Rating Upgrades - (Premium)
Find out which stocks have been recently upgraded by
Zacks Equity Research:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3007
Zacks Equity Research Buys - (Premium)
Read the reports on all of the stocks on the
Zacks Equity Research Buy List:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3008
****************************************************************
Learn More about Zacks Equity Research at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2287
Full access to Zacks Equity Research is now available on
Zacks.com:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3009
Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in a
portfolio managed by Zacks. Learn more at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2696
==============================================
4) INVESTMENT IDEAS
==============================================
The editors at Zacks.com constantly analyze the universe of
stocks to find you great stocks. Today, learn how you can
profit from weight loss and fitness products:
Obesity has officially reached epidemic proportions in our
country. It is estimated that 60 million Americans are obese,
and 9 million are extremely obese (Body Mass Index of more
than 40). Furthermore, about two-thirds of all Americans are
overweight. This is a huge demographic problem that could have
disastrous consequences for our future economy and way of
life.
Not surprisingly, many companies are getting fat off America's
bulging waistlines. This is one of the best and most
profitable secular growth industries. It is clear that there
will always be strong demand for weight loss and fitness
products. Some companies are clearly better than others, but
looking at this industry is a great start. Here are a few
stocks that receive a clean bill of health:
NutriSystem Inc. (NTRI)
If Dan Marino endorses this company, it has to be good. John
Kruk even said that his wife doesn't think he is as disgusting
as he was before in the commercial. NTRI has experienced
phenomenal growth and should continue to do so for the
foreseeable future.
NutriSystem, Inc. provides weight management and fitness
products and services in the United States. Its weight
management program consists of a pre-packaged food program and
counseling. The company's pre-packaged food program consists
of approximately 130 portion-controlled food items with
carbohydrates, proteins, and fats under the brand name
"NutriSystem Nourish". NTRI has exceeded earnings estimates in
eight consecutive quarters.
Whole Foods Markets (WFMI)
This stock has been a huge beneficiary of the trend toward
healthier, organic foods. However, investors have been selling
the shares as they are about 30 points off their highs. There
is concern that the rapid growth is slowing down and that the
stock doesn't deserve any kind of premium anymore. Investors
have a chance to pick up this quality name at a relative
discount.
Whole Foods Market, Inc. and its subsidiaries engage in the
ownership and operation of natural and organic foods
supermarkets. It offers produce, seafood, grocery, meat and
poultry, bakery, prepared foods and catering, specialty (beer,
wine, and cheese), whole body (nutritional supplements,
vitamins, body care, and educational products), floral, pet
products, and household products.
Read the full Investment Ideas article by clicking here:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3548
==============================================
5) FEATURED EXPERTS
==============================================
Here we cast the spotlight on timely Featured Expert
commentaries that recently appeared on Zacks.com.
Fewer Stocks Rallying
Richard Rhodes, from The Rhodes Report, explains that in terms
of the short-term technicals, he finds the current rally
"weak.":
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2462
Armored Protection
Jim Collins reviews a manufacturer of blast and ballistics
armored vehicles. Read his analysis and discover holdings from
his Buy List:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=1514
Hold Off Any New Buying
Mutual fund expert Dennis Slothower says the economy and stock
market are in a stalemate. Read his latest commentary:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2478
****************************************************************
OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS
At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank
investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the
market. Our Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) List has generated the
following results for investors:
* +31.8% average annual return since 1988 versus +11.8% for
S&P 500
* Outperformed S&P 500 in 17 of the last 18 years
* +43.8% total return from 2000 to 2002 - the worst
bear market in over 60 years.
* +18% in 2005
And just as importantly, the Zacks #5 Rank stocks (Strong
Sell) list has alerted investors as to which stocks to dump
from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses.
To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first
understand how it works. That's why we created the free
special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of
Earnings Estimate Revisions. Download a free copy now to
prosper in the years to come by visiting
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2296
Or view the full list of Zacks #1 Rank (Premium) stocks at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2297
FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER
Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
* Broker Recommendation changes
* Earning Estimate revisions
* Earnings Announcements
* Zacks Rank changes
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these
changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000
investors who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio
Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not,
then sign up now to get this vital information sent to you
daily and improve your portfolio's performance. Did we mention
it's free? Get started now by going to
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---------------------------------------------------------
We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Zacks.com Profit from the
Pros" and we look forward to visiting with you again tomorrow.
REFER-A-FRIEND
If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along
to a friend. Simply forward them the link below to sign up for
their own free subscription. If you're reading a forwarded
copy, sign up for your own, so you get this wealth of
information every week. Just click on the link below. THANKS!
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2299
Regards and Happy Investing,
Charles Rotblut, CFA
Senior Market Analyst
Zacks.com
p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros?
To find out how we will help you become a more
successful investor, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=2300
The Zacks Performance Rank performance is the total return
(price changes + dividends) of equal weighted portfolios,
consisting of those stocks with the indicated Zacks Rank,
assuming zero transaction costs and monthly rebalancing.
Simulated results do not represent actual trading and may not
reflect the impact that economic and market factors might have
had on decision-making if an adviser were actually managing a
client's money.
*The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the
prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip
stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index
assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect
advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an
index.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future
results. Investors should always research companies and
securities before making any investments. Nothing herein
should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell
any security.
To contact us by mail:
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Attn: Profit from the Pros
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4/12/2007 ***********************************************
ZACKS.COM PROFIT from the PROS
** Tactics that Work in Good and Bad Markets **
***********************************************
Today's Topics: Thursday - April 12, 2007
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS - Today we highlight four new stocks
with a short-term "Buy" or "Strong Buy" recommendation: Bio-Reference
Labs (BRLI), L-3 Communications (LLL), Chicago Bridge & Iron
Company (CBI) and Arcelor Mittal (MT). Get these stories below.
2) BEST OF THE ZACKS $100,000 CHALLENGE - This contestant climbed his
way to the top with diversification and aggressive picks. Read this Simulator
Player's interview and take a look at the Zacks Challenge Player Blog.
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH - Brokerage analysts are continuing to raise
first-quarter and full-year profit projections on oil refiners. Read the
Industry Rank Analysis and get our Bull and Bear Stocks of the Day.
4) PROFIT TRACKS - HIGH RANK VALUE - Find true bargains through
this screening method.
5) ZacksElite.com TIMELY BUY OF THE WEEK - BASF (BF) expects to top
its 2006 record-breaking sales. Quarterly earnings will be out in a couple of weeks.
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****************************************************************
Want to view the online version of Profit from the Pros or the archive of past
issues? Go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=2337
Manage your Profit from the Pros subscription:
* Free Subscription http://at.zacks.com/?id=2338
* Change of Address http://at.zacks.com/?id=2339
* Unsubscribe http://at.zacks.com/?id=2340
==============================================
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS
==============================================
Zacks #1 Rank stocks average a 31.8% annual return. Every day on
Zacks.com we highlight four new Zacks Rank Buy stocks. Each individual
stock is chosen based on how well they match the criteria for the four main
schools of investing: Aggressive Growth, Momentum, Growth & Income and Value.
Aggressive Growth - Bio-Reference Laboratories, Inc. (BRLI)
Bio-Reference Laboratories, Inc. (BRLI) has met or exceeded earnings
estimates in four out of the past five quarters, with the most recent quarter
registering a 16.7% surprise. Year-over-year growth has averaged
over 40% over this time period. One of the two analysts that cover the
stock raised his estimates for both this year and next. The stock is
attractive at 21.2x next year's estimate of $1.22 per share. Read the
full analysis on BRLI at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3106
Growth & Income - L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. (LLL)
L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. (LLL) exceeded analysts'
earnings expectations in 15 out of the past 16 quarters. Citing anticipated
defense spending in the U.S., LLL upped its earnings per share outlook
for 2007. On Feb 6, the Board of Directors boosted its regular quarterly
cash dividend by 33.3% to 25 cents per share. LLL is currently
yielding 1.1% and its return on equity easily surpasses that of the
industry average-12% compared to 2%. Read the full analysis
on LLL at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3108
Momentum - Chicago Bridge & Iron Company N.V. (CBI)
Chicago Bridge & Iron Company N.V. (CBI) is benefiting from consistent
earnings momentum, higher estimate revisions and a recent upgrade.
Momentum should continue in the direction of the underlying trend.
Read the analysis of CBI at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3109
Value - Arcelor Mittal (MT)
Consensus earnings estimates for Arcelor Mittal (MT) have been on
the rise over the past two months. The company recently raised its offer
for the shares it doesn't already own in Arcelor Brasil SA. MT's
$590-million share repurchase program recently kicked off and
a 32.5-cent interim dividend was announced in early-February.
This Zacks #1 Rank stock is currently trading at a valuation of 8.8x
current fiscal-year estimated earnings and at 7.8x next fiscal-year
estimated earnings. Read the full analysis
on MT at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3110
Zacks Rank Resources
* Zacks Rank Homepage at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3104
* Zacks Elite: Discover Ben Zacks' hand picked #1 Rank stocks on his
Timely Buys list at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2550
* Zacks Rank Breakout Trader: When a stock moves quickly to a
Zacks #1 Rank, this trading service uses that turnaround to
make 55% a year. Learn more at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=3496
* Zacks Options Trader: Combine the timeliness of Zacks #1 Rank stocks
with the explosive profit potential of options.
Learn more at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2689
* Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in a portfolio
managed by Zacks. Learn more at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2551
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==============================================
2) Best of the Zacks $100,000 Challenge
==============================================
Zacks is conducting a nationwide talent search to find the very
best stock pickers. The winner gets a $100,000 dream job with
Zacks! Sign up for free to join the competition, or just read
what stocks the leading players are trading on the Zacks
Challenge Player Blogs. http://at.zacks.com/?id=3469
Best of the Zacks Challenge Player Blogs
-----------------------------------------
Here's what the leading players are saying lately:
Dreyerd (Rank #177 with $117,443)
ATTEMPTING BREAKOUT TO MULTI-YEAR HIGHS (GLBL, DNDN)
GLBL is starting to resolve a bullish flag patter to eight-year highs. This one
could get serious momentum going quickly...
Read More or Comment on this post:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3478
Beris (Rank #19 with $144,819)
ALUMINUM GIANTS TO FLY AGAIN: SOUNDING CONSOLIDATION BELLS (CENX)
After Alcoa (AA) reported the strongest first-quarter in the company's history as
its profit rose 9% due to an increased jet making and construction demand, aluminum is
getting hot again after taking a short breather in the last month. Acquisitions in this sector
might gain momentum yet again...
Read More or Comment on this post:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3479
Read all the Player Blog posts at:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3482
Top Zacks Challenge Player Interview: Seatac
----------------------------------------------------------
Jim Treyens (aka Seatac) describes himself as diversified and eclectic
when it comes to trading stocks. This Simulator player will also employ
aggressive strategies if needed.
"Some of my stocks should have potential for explosive growth, kind of like a
venture capital fund that knows it won't make money on eight of ten investments
but can make a whole lot of money on one or two," mentioned Jim.
The savvy investor currently holds second place in the Zacks $100K Challenge.
He has earned an overall return of more then 100% since the beginning
of this year.
His current Zacks $100K Challenge stocks include Natus Medical Inc. (BABY),
Dendreon Corp. (DNDN), Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD), ZymoGenetics, Inc. (ZGEN)
and Seattle Genetics Inc. (SGEN). Take a look at his entire portfolio by
clicking here: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2515
Click here to read the whole interview with this competitor:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2518
Click here for more on the Zacks $100,000 Challenge:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3469
====================================================
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH
====================================================
Two weeks ago, I discussed rising earnings estimates for oil refining companies.
The trend is continuing - within the past week, brokerage analysts have raised
both first-quarter and full-year profit projections on Frontier Oil (FTO),
Sunoco (SUN), Valero (VLO) and Western Refining (WNR). FTO, VLO
and WNR are Zacks #1 Rank ("strong buy") stocks; SUN is
a Zacks #3 Rank ("hold") stock.
The cost of Texas Tea is staying in the mid-$60 range and comments out
of some oil-producing countries suggest that they are happy with the current
price levels. Gasoline inventories in the U.S. have fallen for eight consecutive
weeks and another drop is anticipated when the Department of Energy releases
its weekly survey later today. Prices at the pump are up 18 cents over the past
two weeks and are now up by about 50 cents per gallon since the end of January.
Then there is the ongoing problem with Iran and its intent to go nuclear.
More...
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Best of Zacks Equity Research continued...
Refiners not only benefit from higher oil prices, but they are also in a
favorable position from a supply/demand standpoint. Refineries in the U.S.
are operating at almost full-utilization. Sustained economic growth results in
more cars on the road due to both higher employment and more vacations.
Combined, these factors are positives for companies whose earnings are
dependant on the size of the margins they can command.
Given this backdrop and the trend in earnings estimate revisions, companies
within Oil Refining & Marketing could issue positive first-quarter earnings surprises.
Valero intends to report on Apr 24 and brokerage analysts currently expect
earnings of $1.62 per share (versus $1.58 last week). Sunoco intends to report
on May 2 and brokerage analysts expect earnings of $1.24 per share
(versus $1.22 last week). Frontier Oil and Western Refining will likely report
in May, though neither company has announced a date.
Although the housing market remains weak, commercial construction
(both new and remodeling) is helping to keep demand for lighting fixtures
strong. Evidence of this strength was seen in Acuity Brands' (AYI) fiscal
second-quarter results. The company reported record second-quarter profits
of 55 cents per share, surpassing expectations by a margin of six cents per share.
Net sales of lighting fixtures rose 4.6% and operating margins expanded. AYI was
able to push through price increases at the same time it was enjoying higher
volume - a good combination. CEO Vernon Nagel made optimistic comments
about the outlook for the lighting fixtures market noting still favorable economic
conditions and a 7% increase in his company's backlog.
The four covering brokerage analysts seemed to agree. All of them raised their
full-year forecasts following the earnings report. The new consensus estimate calls
for AYI to earn $3.40 per share this year; last week, the consensus estimate had
projected profits of $3.23 per share.
AYI is a Zacks #1 Rank ("strong buy") stock and is classified in Building Product-Lighting
Fixtures. This group also contains one Zacks #2 Rank ("buy") stock, LSI Industries (LYTS).
To read the complete Industry Rank Analysis, click http://at.zacks.com/?id=2344
Charles Rotblut, CFA is the senior market analyst for Zacks Equity Research.
****************************************************************
MORE FROM ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH...
Analyst Blog
Real-time market insights from Zacks Equity Research Analysts.
Stocks featured recently include Harmony Gold (HMY), aQuantive (AQNT),
Rockwell Automation (ROK) and MedImmune (MEDI). See their latest
posts at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2585
BULL OF THE DAY
Sinopec (SNP) - Favorable Environment Emerging.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2341
BEAR OF THE DAY
Rackable Systems (RACK) - Major Competition.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2342
ZACKS ANALYST INTERVIEW
Expect Another Solid Quarter from Tech
Unlike the last downturn in the market, technology seems to be pretty
strong and hanging in there:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2693
EARNINGS TRENDS
Earnings Season Kicks Off with Subdued Expectations
The long streak of double-digit quarters is likely to end, with only the materials
sector currently expected to beat the 10% year-over-year growth level:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2343
Rating Upgrades - New! (Premium)
Find out which stocks have been recently upgraded by Zacks Equity Research:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2997
Zacks Equity Research Buys - New! (Premium)
Read the reports on all of the stocks on the
Zacks Equity Research Buy List:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2998
****************************************************************
Learn More about Zacks Equity Research at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2268
Full access to Zacks Equity Research is now available on
Zacks.com:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2999
Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in a
portfolio managed by Zacks. Learn more at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2691
==============================================
4) PROFIT TRACKS
==============================================
Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading
strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today
we highlight...
Profit Tracks: High Rank Value
Two of the most commonly accepted measures of a value stock are a
price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 15.0 and a price-to-book (P/B) multiple
of 3.0. Although many studies have shown performance advantages to
investing in value stocks, not all value stocks are actually bargains. A value
a stock is only a good buy if earnings are expected to improve in the future.
High Rank Value is a strategy designed to find the true bargains among
value stocks. By requiring a Zacks Rank of #1 ("Strong Buy") or #2 ("Buy"),
this strategy restricts the pool of value stocks to only those with positive revisions
in earnings estimates. In other words, profits are expected to improve in the
future at a faster pace than originally anticipated.
Here are four stocks that make the grade for the High Rank Value Profit Track:
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG), a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) company,
offers a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple is 13.94 and a price-to-book (P/B) multiple
of 1.47. ABG will announce financial results for the first quarter on April 25, 2007.
In mid-February, Asbury Automotive posted fourth quarter earnings per share that
outperformed the consensus estimate by 8% and increased on a year-over-year basis.
Continue your research on ABG at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2354
The Chubb Corporation (CB) satisfies the criteria for this Profit Track as evidenced
by its price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 9.3 and a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 1.58.
The company will issue its report for the first quarter on April 23, 2007. CB released
fourth-quarter results in late January. Operating income per share reached a record $1.46,
compared to last year's $1.17. Wall Street forecasted fourth-quarter earnings of $1.33 per share.
Continue your research on CB at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2355
DryShips, Inc. (DRYS) is also a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) name. The company recently
declared a quarterly cash dividend of 20 cents per share. DRYS reported full-year and
fourth-quarter results in late February. Earnings per share, excluding an item,
totaled 77 cents for the fourth quarter, beating the consensus by 3%. The company
stated that it enters 2007 with a bigger and significantly younger fleet and about 64%
of the total vessel operating days unfixed which places DryShips in a unique position
to capitalize on the strong dry bulk industry fundamentals. DRYS has a
price to-earnings (P/E) multiple is 10.5 and its price-to-book (P/B) multiple is 2.08.
Continue your research on DRYS at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2356
Diana Shipping Inc. (DSX), a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) company, has a
price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple is 14.98 and a price-to-book (P/B) multiple of 2.69.
The company released its report for the fourth quarter in late February. Earnings per
share totaled 37 cents, which surpassed the consensus estimate by 3% and outperformed
the year-ago result. Continue your research on DSX at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2357
To see the track details for this winning screen, go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=2358
All the Profit Track strategies were created and backtested using the Research Wizard
software from Zacks Investment Research. If you like this screening strategy, but want
to narrow down the list of stocks and even improve the performance, then you should
start a free trial to this powerful stock picking tool. Learn more about the Research
Wizard free trial offer and our new special report "Top 10 Stock Screening
Strategies" at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2359
****************************************************************
SCREEN OF THE WEEK
Screening for Stocks to Pick the Right Options
Kevin Matras explains why a good stock screener can be your best tool
for picking options:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2360
==============================================
5) ZacksElite.com TIMELY BUY of the WEEK
==============================================
Here you'll discover a Zacks #1 Rank stock hand selected by
Ben Zacks to outperform the market over the next 30 to 90 days.
This week's Timely Buy is...
BASF Aktiengesellschaft (BF)
------------------------------------------------
Ludwigshafen, Germany-based BASF Aktiengesellschaft (BF) is the world's
leading chemical company with customers in more than 170 countries and
production sites in 41 countries. It operates through five segments.
The plastics segment (24% of revenue) makes styrenic plastics,
engineering and high-performance plastics, and polyurethane.
The chemicals segment (22%) makes basic petrochemicals and
inorganic chemicals, as well as specialty intermediates for the
chemical, construction, automotive, and electronics industries.
The performance products segment (19%) produces high-value
products such as surfactants, pigments, automotive and industrial coatings,
and adhesive raw materials. The agricultural products and nutrition
segment (9%) is made up of two separate operational units agricultural
products and fine chemicals. The oil and gas segment (20%) is involved in
the exploration and production (E&P) of crude oil and the marketing and
trading of natural gas in Central and Eastern Europe. Other operations
generated the remaining revenue. Nearly 60% of revenue comes from
Europe, with Germany alone accounting for 44%. North America
generated 22%, Asia/Pacific 14% and South America, Africa, Middle East 4%.
BASF's strength lies in its ability to withstand challenging market conditions
to grow faster than the market. The company s operations are linked to
Verbund (integrated production) concept, which gives it a competitive
advantage over its peers. Under this concept, BASF utilizes byproducts
of one process as raw materials for the other process, thus resulting in
cost savings. Additionally, it also applies this interconnectivity concept in
other fields like R&D, purchasing, and managing customer relationships
enabling it to improve its productivity. The company has various growth
opportunities and is well positioned in the various fields in which it operates.
Business conditions are improving, with Asia and North America driving growth.
The company is witnessing robust demand across most product lines, with a
considerable rise in new orders. Increased shipment volumes are resulting in
higher capacity utilization, and consequently better absorption of fixed overheads.
The rising demand has also restored some pricing power in the industry enabling
BASF to institute long-awaited price increases. The company has also initiated
price increases across all product lines in North America to address the
problem of rising energy costs.
BASF is witnessing sales and earnings growth due to better end-markets.
All segments are experiencing improvements, with the chemicals segment
emerging as the primary growth driver. Further, strong volumes and better
prices are resulting in market share gains worldwide. The company also
remains on track to complete its cost reduction program.
In late March, BASF and Monsanto Company have announced a long-term
joint research and development (R&D) and commercialization collaboration in
plant biotechnology that will focus on the development of high yielding crops
and crops that are more tolerant to adverse environmental conditions
such as drought.
The company released 2006 results in late February, noting that for the first time
in BF's history, sales passed the EUR 50 billion mark, and income from
operations (EBIT) before special items climbed to a new record of more
than EUR 7.2 billion.
In 2007, BASF expects significantly higher sales than in 2006. The company
stated that higher sales will be driven by both the businesses acquired in 2006
as well as organic growth in the company's existing businesses. Despite the
significant decline in the price of oil and the associated impact on the earnings
of the Oil & Gas segment, BASF has set itself the ambitious goal of at least
matching the record level of EBIT before special items that it posted in 2006.
Due to the sustained strengthening of its earnings power, BASF expects to
at least earn its cost of capital in any given year, irrespective of the
economic situation.
Results for the first quarter will be available on April 26, 2007.
****************************************************************
About Zacks Timely Buy of the Week
Each week we highlight one stock from the ZacksElite.com
Timely Buys list. This exclusive portfolio selected by Ben
Zacks has beaten the S&P 500 every single year since inception
in 1996. $10,000 invested in this strategy since inception
would now be worth $115,319 versus only $23,597 invested in
the S&P 500.
Click here to learn more about ZacksElite.com and the free
trial offer http://at.zacks.com/?id=2346
****************************************************************
OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS
At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank
investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the
market. Our Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) List has generated the
following results for investors:
* +31.8% average annual return since 1988 versus +11.8% for
S&P 500
* Outperformed S&P 500 in 17 of the last 18 years
* +43.8% total return from 2000 to 2002 - the worst
bear market in over 60 years.
* +18% in 2005
And just as importantly, the Zacks #5 Rank stocks (Strong Sell)
List has alerted investors as to which stocks to dump from
Their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses.
FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER
Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
* Broker Recommendation changes
* Earning Estimate revisions
* Earnings Announcements
* Zacks Rank changes
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these
changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000 investors
who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio Updates emails
from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not, then sign up now
to get this vital information sent to you daily and improve
your portfolio's performance. Did we mention it's free? Get
started now by going to http://at.zacks.com/?id=2352
---------------------------------------------------------
We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Zacks.com Profit from the
Pros" and we look forward to visiting with you again tomorrow.
REFER-A-FRIEND
If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along
to a friend. Simply forward them the link below to sign up for
their own free subscription. If you're reading a forwarded copy,
sign up for your own, so you get this wealth of information
every week. Just click on the link below. THANKS!
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Regards and Happy Investing,
Charles Rotblut, CFA
Senior Market Analyst
Zacks.com
p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros?
To find out how we will help you become a more
successful investor, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=2353
The Zacks Performance Rank performance is the total return
(price changes + dividends) of equal weighted portfolios,
consisting of those stocks with the indicated Zacks Rank,
assuming zero transaction costs and monthly rebalancing.
Simulated results do not represent actual trading and may not
reflect the impact that economic and market factors might have
had on decision-making if an adviser were actually managing a
client's money.
*The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the
prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip
stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index
assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory
fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Investors should always research companies and securities
before making any investments. Nothing herein should be
construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any
security.
To contact us by mail:
Zacks Investment Research
Attn: Profit from the Pros
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e-mail newsletter, click here http://at.zacks.com/?id=2340
4/11/2007 ***********************************************
ZACKS.COM PROFIT from the PROS
** Tactics that Work in Good and Bad Markets **
***********************************************
Today's Topics: Wednesday - April 11, 2007
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS - Today we highlight four new stocks
with a short-term "Buy" or "Strong Buy" recommendation: Sun
Hydraulics (SNHY), Valero Energy (VLO), Astec Industries
(ASTE) and Eastman Chemical (EMN). Get these stories below.
2) SCREEN OF THE WEEK - Kevin Matras explains why a good stock
screener can be your best tool for picking options.
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH - In India, the telecom market is
expected to grow by 10% annually from 2005 to 2007. Read the
Analyst Interview and get our Bull and Bear Stocks of the Day.
4) ZACKS WEALTH MANAGEMENT - Learn how to reap the rewards and
manage the tax ramifications of employee stock options.
5) BEST OF THE ZACKS $100,000 CHALLENGE- Beris says that
copper will retain its upward trend, and highlights a company
that looks to be awakening with full strength. Read this
Simulator participant's blog post along with two of his
competitors.
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==============================================
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS
==============================================
Zacks #1 Rank stocks average a 31.8% annual return. Every day
on Zacks.com we highlight four new Zacks Rank Buy stocks. Each
individual stock is chosen based on how well they match the
criteria for the four main schools of investing: Aggressive
Growth, Momentum, Growth & Income and Value.
Aggressive Growth - Sun Hydraulics Corporation (SNHY)
In a relative rarity, Sun Hydraulics Corporation (SNHY) pays a
dividend of 1.50%. It is uncommon for a microcap company to
pay a dividend of any sort. Earnings estimates have been
rising, especially for next year. Over the past month, next
year's estimates have jumped 25 cents to $1.90 per share. The
stock is very cheap at 14.2x next year's estimates, well below
the long-term growth rate of 27%. Read the full analysis on
SNHY at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2498
Growth & Income - Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO), a Zacks #1 Rank stock,
exceeded analysts' earnings expectations in 13 out of the past
16 quarters, most recently by 10.4% in the fourth quarter of
2006. VLO increased revenues and expanded gross margins for
the past eight years. On Jan 18, the Board of Directors
approved a 50% boost in the company's regular quarterly cash
dividend to 12 cents per share. VLO has a return on equity of
31%, compared to 8% for the industry average. Read the full
analysis on VLO at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2499
Momentum - Astec Industries Inc. (ASTE)
Astec Industries Inc. (ASTE) has reported two consecutive
earnings surprises and analysts have raised full-year
estimates, fueling the upward trend that began last August.
While the company is trading near 52-week highs, the Apr 24
earnings report will largely decide the direction of future
price momentum. Read the analysis of ASTE at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2500
Value - Eastman Chemical Company (EMN)
Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) exceeded analysts' earnings
expectations for the past four quarters and in 11 out of the
past 13. Consensus earnings estimates have been on the rise
for this Zacks #1 Rank stock. The Board of Directors recently
announced a $300-milllion share repurchase program and
declared a 44-cent dividend. EMN is currently yielding 2.7%.
The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.6. Read the full
analysis on EMN at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2501
Zacks Rank Resources
* Zacks Rank Homepage at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3102
* Zacks Elite: Discover Ben Zacks' hand picked #1 Rank stocks
on his Timely Buys list at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2546
* Zacks Rank Breakout Trader: When a stock moves quickly to a
Zacks #1 Rank, this trading service uses that turnaround to
make 55% a year. Learn more at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=3495
* Zacks Options Trader: Combine the timeliness of Zacks #1
Rank stocks with the explosive profit potential of options.
Learn more at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2714
* Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in
a portfolio managed by Zacks. Learn more at
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==============================================
2) SCREEN OF THE WEEK
==============================================
Zacks.com offers a unique stock search strategy from Kevin
Matras each week to help you Profit from the Pros. Each week,
Kevin shares with you another winning screen he has discovered
using the Research Wizard software from Zacks Investment
Research. Learn more about the Research Wizard at:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2335
Screening for Stocks to Pick the Right Options
This week, I want to talk about options.
More specifically, I'd like to explain why a good stock
screener is the best tool for picking the right options.
Regardless of whether you're buying options or writing them,
you not only have to be right on the stock's direction, but
also on its timing.
Even the most sophisticated of options strategies requires the
investor to have at least an idea as to what the stock will or
won't do within a certain period of time.
Often times, people who buy options with more time in order to
be safe are forced to buy options further out-of-the-money
because of the cost, which ultimately reduces their chances of
profitability.
But by backtesting a stock-picking strategy to see if your
stocks typically go up as soon as they're identified, you can
buy less time and closer-to-the-money (better) options. Simply
put, you can make better decisions as to which options to get
into.
For example, let's assume we're buying calls; if you know your
stock-picking strategy has a high probability of picking
stocks that go up within the first few weeks, you won't have
to waste your money on purchasing options with excessive time.
(As you know, `time' does indeed cost money when it comes to
options, i.e. time value or extrinsic value.) And the less
needless time you buy, the more money you'll have to spend on
buying an option that's closer to the money or even in-the-
money.
I won't get into an options lesson in this article, but too
many people treat option buying as a lottery ticket. They'll
buy the cheapest options (usually meaning several strikes out-
of-the-money) and hope for an explosive move (which they'll
need if they're too far out-of-the-money). Unfortunately,
these moves often never come. And even when they do, often
times by expiration, their time value has eroded with no
intrinsic value at all.
Let's say stock XYZ is trading at $50. And the options are
expiring in five weeks. There's a $45 in-the-money call at
$5.60 (which means it costs $560); a $50 at-the-money call
going for $2.20 ($220); a $55 out-of-the money call going for
$1.50 ($150) and a $60 call going for $.75 cents ($75).
The 45 call has $500 of intrinsic value (the difference
between the underlying stock's price and the strike price) and
$60 of time value or extrinsic value (amount of the option's
price that's greater than the intrinsic value).
The 50 call has $0 (zero) intrinsic value and is fully
comprised of extrinsic value ($220 worth).
The 55 and 60 calls also have zero intrinsic value and only
time value too ($150 and $75 respectively).
The interesting dynamic is that time value or extrinsic value
declines as the expiration date draws near. In other words, as
time goes by, your option is losing its time value.
To complete this example, let me go over a few scenarios.
Scenario 1)
Let's say at expiration, XYZ stock closes at $50. The 45 call
is worth $500 for a loss of $60 or 11%. Why? Because at
expiration, there's $500 of intrinsic value left. But the $60
worth of time value has ticked away for a loss of $60. So out
of your $560 investment, you get $500 of it back.
The 50 call is worth $0 for a loss of $220 or 100%. That $220
was all time value and it has all been used up.
The 55 and 60 calls will also expire worthless, each one for a
100% loss. Same story.
While it's true that if you spent less on an option, your
absolute risk is less since you can only lose what you put in.
But the `worse' option you buy, the less likelihood there is
that the stock will reach and surpass your strike price at
expiration. (Less potential monetary loss per option, but less
likelihood of making anything either.)
Scenario 2)
Let's say XYZ makes only a mediocre move of $2 to close at
$52. At expiration, the 45 call would be worth $700, which
means it'd have a gain of $140 or 25%. So you get your $560
back, plus an extra $140.
The 50 call, in spite of XYZ's $2 move, would have actually
lost money. The 50 call would now be worth only $200. But
remember, you paid $220 for it. The move gave you $200 of new
intrinsic value, but all of the time value you purchased ($220
worth) would have ticked away. The net result would have been
a loss of $20 for a 9% decrease. So out of your $220
investment, you'll get back $200 of it.
The 55 and 60 calls both expire worthless for a 100% loss on
each.
Scenario 3)
This time let's say XYZ goes to $55. The 45 call is now worth
$1,000 at expiration. That's a $440 gain or a 79% increase.
($1,000 - $560 investment = $440 gain.) So you get your $560
back, plus an extra $440. Good trade.
The 50 call will be worth $500. That's a $280 gain or a 127%
increase. Excellent. You get your $220 back, plus an extra
$280. But on a $5 stock move, your option captured only about
half of that.
The 55 and 60 calls, in spite of XYZ's $5 run-up, both expire
worthless. Yes, even the 55 call. It has no intrinsic value
and no time value left -- so it's worth nothing.
Scenario 4)
This time, let's say XYZ shoots up $10 to close at $60 by
expiration. The 45 call will be worth $1,500. ($1,500 - $560
investment = $940 gain or a 168% increase.) You get your $560
back, plus an additional $940. Awesome.
The 50 call also fared well. It's now worth $1,000. ($1,000 -
$220 investment = $780 gain or a 355% increase). You get your
$220 back, plus an additional $780.
The 55 call is finally profitable as it's now worth $500. So
your gain is $350. ($500 - $150 investment = $350.) That's a
233% increase, but a bit disappointing since you got only
about $3.50 worth of a $10 move.
The real disappointment though is for the 60 call. Once again,
it'll expire worthless as all of it's time value has ticked
away leaving its value at $0 -- zero.
Of course, the out-of-the money call strategy will score big
if there's a huge move and you have lots of options. But short
of that, the `cheap', out-of-the money calls will often expire
with a 100% loss. Ouch. And how much money are you really
willing to commit to an out-of-the money play, knowing the
odds are so stacked against you?
Unfortunately, that's what too many people do. And because
they rationalize that they can get several cheaper options for
the price of one really good one, they'll often spend just as
much and lose it ALL.
And if you buy more time (more time until expiration) the
options will cost even more for a potentially even bigger
loss. In fact, every one of the above scenarios would have
done commensurately worse.
So getting back to my point; once you have an idea as to how
good your screening strategy is at picking winners and how
quickly they move once they've been identified, you can then
go about picking the best option to give you the highest
probability of success.
For instance, what if you knew your screening strategy picked
stocks that had a high probability of going up within the next
few weeks? You wouldn't need to buy two months or three months
or six months of time. And you could then spend your money on
getting a closer out-of-the money or, better yet, an at-the-
money or an in-the-money option.
I personally like to look at options as simply a cheaper way
to invest in stocks. Because if I bought 100 shares of a $90
stock, that'd cost $9,000. But if I bought an $85 call option
with 4-6 weeks left while the stock was at $90, I'd have the
right to buy 100 shares of that stock at $90. And I'd probably
only have to pay about $5.50 to $7.00 ($550 to $700) to do so.
(There of course are other considerations to the pricing of
options that are beyond the scope of this article, but you get
the idea.) The benefits of my in-the-money preferences are; if
the stock went sideways, I'd retain the majority of my
investment since my option is comprised of mostly intrinsic
value. If it went up a little, my option would still have a
great chance to gain. If it moved up nicely (as I'd expected),
I'd get the lion's share of the move. And if it collapsed, my
maximum exposure would be limited to my purchase price. (And
even less if I sold prior to expiration.)
So what does all this mean?
Make sure you screen for good stocks!!!
And make sure you know what the probability is for those
stocks to move, say within the next week or month, etc. And
the only way to really know is to backtest your screening
strategies.
This way, even a crummy option strategy will then have a
better chance of profit. But with better knowledge of your
stocks' movement potential, you can employ a better option
strategy for even bigger gains.
Here's an easy way to get started. In the Research Wizard,
some of our best and winningest strategies come loaded with
the program. Simply add the filter; `optionable' (meaning
these stocks have options). Add the optionable filter to these
strategies and then go find the best options.
Here are three optionable stocks, from some of my favorite
stock screening strategies (for the week of 4/9/07):
CXW Corrections Corp. of America
(from the Increasing Cash Flows screen)
LEH Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc.
(from the Best Buys screen)
VCLK ValueClick, Inc.
(from EPS Growth, Past and Present screen)
Get the rest of the stocks from each one of these screens and
start making better stock and option decisions today.
And remember, the key to successful stock picking is in
discovering those screens that have produced profitable
results in the past. And the key to better option selections
is in knowing what to expect from your stocks (and when). And
how will you know? By backtesting! Click here to find out more
about our free trial to the Research Wizard stock picking and
backtesting program. http://at.zacks.com/?id=2335
Discover all the Free Screening Tools on Zacks.com at
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Disclosure: Officers, directors and/or employees of Zacks
Investment Research may own or have sold short securities
and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are
mentioned in this material. An affiliated investment advisory
firm may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long
and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this
material.
====================================================
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH
====================================================
Six weeks or so since the major sell-off in Chinese stocks, we
were interested in getting the perspective of a senior analyst
in the region - and throughout Asia -- at this time. We
recently asked senior telecom analyst Peter Chua, CFA for his
viewpoint.
How are things progressing in the telecom industry on the
Pacific Rim?
We have seen the focus shift from the developed countries to
the high-growth countries in the region. Countries such as
Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau that have 90% to 100%
penetration rate and are expected to show slightly negative
growth. On the other hand, there is still room for growth in
China, India, Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and the
Philippines.
More...
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Zacks Equity Research continued...
In China, the number of both fixed-line and wireless phone
subscribers grew by 11% to 830 million as of December 2006.
The government is projecting this to increase to 900 million
by the end of this year or an excess of 8% year-on-year
growth. Operators are targeting the rural markets and
subscribers who are in the market for a second phone.
After the United States and China, India is the third largest
telecommunication network in the world. But the growth
potential is still substantial. With a teledensity of 18.26
from 203 million fixed-line and wireless telephone subscribers
as of February this year, the telecom market is expected to
grow by 10% annually from 2005 to 2007.
However, marketing telecom services to developing Asia would
require a different approach. The strategy is to sell a basic
phone service to as wide a potential market as possible for a
low monthly fee. For example, the annual wireless phone
expense for a customer in the West is about $500 a year, while
the average Indian customer spends only $110 annually -- a
ratio of almost four to one.
Any new issues emerging since we last spoke?
The important issue remains the vast market potential in the
region. This explains why established operators are willing to
pay a significant amount to gain a foothold in the market. In
February 2007, we saw Vodafone (NYSE: VOD) buying 67% control
of Indian cellular operator Hutch Essar for $11.1 billion.
We think investors see a two-tier growth potential from the
region. The first wave of growth will come from selling a
basic service to every subscriber and increase the penetration
rate. The second wave will come from selling value-added
services as these countries experience high economic growth
resulting in greater consumer purchasing power.
Read the complete ANALYST INTERVIEW article at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2525
Peter Chua, CFA is a senior analyst covering the
telecommunications industry in Asia.
****************************************************************
MORE FROM ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH...
Analyst Blog
Real-time market insights from Zacks Equity Research Analysts.
Stocks featured recently include Advance Auto Parts (AAP),
Wyeth Pharmaceuticals (WYE), D.R. Horton (DHI) and First
Community Bancorp (FCBP). See their latest posts at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2582
BULL OF THE DAY
Brasil Telecom (BRP) - High-Growth Potential.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2325
BEAR OF THE DAY
Centennial Communications (CYCL) - Over-leveraged.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2326
EARNINGS PREVIEW
The Week of Apr 9 - Apr 13
Alcoa (AA) officially kicks off the first-quarter earnings
season:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3243
EARNINGS TRENDS
Earnings Season Begins with Subdued Expectations
The long streak of double-digit quarters is likely to end,
with only the materials sector currently expected to beat the
10% year-over-year growth level:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2396
Rating Upgrades (Premium)
Find out which stocks have been recently upgraded by Zacks
Equity Research:
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Zacks Equity Research Buys (Premium)
Read the reports on all of the stocks on the
Zacks Equity Research Buy List:
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****************************************************************
Learn More about Zacks Equity Research at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2323
Full access to Zacks Equity Research is now available on
Zacks.com:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2992
Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in a
portfolio managed by Zacks. Learn more at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2713
====================================================
4) ZACKS WEALTH MANAGEMENT
====================================================
Every week, Zacks Wealth Management provides informative
articles on how to build and protect wealth. Today's topic is:
Understanding Stock Options
Despite the controversy they have garnered lately, stock
options are still fairly popular incentives for employees.
Whether you work for a public or private company, you may reap
the benefits of these plans either today or in the future. We
will focus on two types of stock options, non qualified stock
options (NQSO) and incentive stock options (ISO) and how you
could be taxed on these plans.
First let's go over some terminology for stock options.
* Grant date: The date you are given stock options.
* Vesting Period: Dates you are eligible to exercise the stock
options. * Exercise price: Amount you pay to exercise your
stock options.
* Fair Market Value: current price of your stock.
* Bargain element: The difference between the exercise price
and the fair market value of the stock. For example you
exercise your stock for $10 a share and the current price is
$20. Your bargain element is $10.
* Alternative minimum tax (AMT): This is an extra tax some of
you may have to pay above your regular income tax. The idea
behind it is to prevent people with really high incomes from
paying little or no tax via special tax benefits or
deductions.
Non Qualified Stock Options (NQSO)
Non qualified stock options are options that don't receive
favorable tax treatment or deferrals. Your company does get a
tax deduction on these plans and NQSO's are taxable at
exercise.
To illustrate the tax situation, let's use the example from
above with the stock currently trading at $30. You exercise at
$10. You will pay ordinary tax on the $20 gain ($30 market
value minus $10 exercise). Your cost basis is now $30. What if
the stock hits $50 a year later? Then you will owe long term
capital gains tax on the subsequent $20 gain ($50-$30).
Incentive Stock Option (ISO)
This is also known as qualified stock options and is a tax
favored plan. No taxes are due when you exercise ISO's.
Typically only $100,000 worth of ISO's granted in one calendar
year gets favorable tax treatment. Anything above that gets
treated as non qualified stock options.
You have to be aware of the alternative minimum tax (AMT) on
the bargain element at exercise. Suppose you were granted
options and exercise them at $10 per share and the stock is
valued at $30. The discount or bargain element equals $20. No
taxes are due at this time. However the $20 bargain element
could put you in AMT territory creating a higher tax bill for
you.
Remember you must hold the stock for two years after the grant
date and one year after your exercise date to get favored long
term capital gains treatment. If you sell the stock earlier,
you will pay ordinary income tax on the bargain element ($20
gain above the exercise in this case), and any ensuing gains
since the exercise. Let's say the stock goes to $50 one year
after the exercise at $10.00 and 2 years after the stock has
been granted to you. The subsequent $40.00 gain will receive
long term capital gains treatment.
There is a lot more to discuss, especially on when you should
exercise these options. We will discuss them in the coming
weeks. For now know that the main difference between NQSO's
and ISO's relates to their taxation. NQSO's are subject to
regular income tax at exercise whereas ISO's are not. If you
are in a high income bracket, you must pay attention to AMT
when it comes to ISO's as it may apply to you in the year of
exercise. These are difficult financial planning issues so
please go to an advisor familiar with the ins and outs of
these plans.
Jonas Zamora is a Certified Financial PlannerTMprofessional
This article is provided for informational purposes only and
does not constitute legal or tax advice. Zacks Investment
Management, Inc. is not engaged in rendering legal, tax,
accounting or other professional services. Publication and
distribution of this article is not intended to create, and
the information contained herein does not constitute, an
attorney-client relationship. Do not act or rely upon the
information and advice given in this publication without
seeking the services of competent and professional legal, tax,
or accounting counsel.
CFP Board, a nonprofit regulatory organization, fosters
professional standards in personal financial planning so that
the public values, has access to and benefits from competent
and ethical financial planning. CFP Board owns the
certification marks CFP(R), Certified Financial Planner(TM) and
federally registered CFP (with flame logo), which it awards to
individuals who successfully complete initial and ongoing
certification requirements. CFP Board currently authorizes
more than 50,000 individuals to use these marks in the United
States. For more about CFP Board, visit
"http://www.cfp.net/"www.CFP.net.
Learn more about Zacks Wealth Management at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2994
==============================================
5) Best of the Zacks $100,000 Challenge
==============================================
Zacks is conducting a nationwide talent search to find the
very best stock pickers. The winner gets a $100,000 dream job
with Zacks! Sign up for free to join the competition, or just
read what stocks the leading players are trading on the Zacks
Challenge Player Blogs. http://at.zacks.com/?id=3469
Best of the Zacks Challenge Player Blogs
-----------------------------------------
Here's what the leading players are saying lately:
Beris (Rank #19 with $145,446)
COPPER TO RETAIN ITS UPWARD TREND (CUP)
Peru Copper (CUP) has been on the sidelines throughout the
recent shake up in copper prices, but it's now awakening with
the full strength. As it didn't do anything for months, it's
certainly ready to roar now. I wouldn't be surprised to see...
Read More or Comment on this post:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3491
Dreyerd (Rank #241 with $114,374)
SHUTTERFLY MAKING A MOVE (SFLY)
Shutterfly is gaining momentum with volume behind it. I got in
around the 50 day moving average and filled out the position
on the way up. I look for SFLY to...
Read More or Comment on this post:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3492
MoBeer
MARKETS RUNNING OUT OF STEAM
In looking at the broad markets, we can see upward momentum
slowing on decreasing volume as we come into resistance.
Forecasting pullbacks to lower levels over the next couple of
days.
Read More or Comment on this post:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3493
Read all the Player Blog posts at:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3482
****************************************************************
OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS
At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank
investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the
market. Our Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) List has generated the
following results for investors:
* +31.8% average annual return since 1988 versus +11.8% for
S&P 500
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* +43.8% total return from 2000 to 2002 - the worst
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We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Zacks.com Profit from the
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Zacks.com
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The Zacks Performance Rank performance is the total return
(price changes + dividends) of equal weighted portfolios,
consisting of those stocks with the indicated Zacks Rank,
assuming zero transaction costs and monthly rebalancing.
Simulated results do not represent actual trading and may not
reflect the impact that economic and market factors might have
had on decision-making if an adviser were actually managing a
client's money.
*The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the
prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip
stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index
assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect
advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an
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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future
results. Investors should always research companies and
securities before making any investments. Nothing herein
should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell
any security.
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4/10/2007 ***********************************************
ZACKS.COM PROFIT from the PROS
** Tactics that Work in Good and Bad Markets **
***********************************************
Today's Topics: Tuesday - April 10, 2007
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS - Today we highlight four new stocks
with a short-term "Buy" or "Strong Buy" recommendation:
O2Micro Int'l (OIIM), FactSet Research Systems (FDS),
Sotheby's Holdings (BID) and MKS Instruments (MKSI). Get these
stories below.
2) PROFIT TRACKS - LOW PRICE STOCKS - Profit from stocks
priced under $20 with attractive valuations and rising
earnings estimates.
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH - Actual buyout offers in the hotels
industry are still coming in at a premium to the current
trading price. Read the Analyst Interview and get our Bull and
Bear Stocks of the Day.
4) OPTIONS CENTER - The experts at Schaeffer's highlight an
insurer with an outstanding performance in the face of bearish
sentiment, which makes it a near-perfect contrarian play.
5) BEST OF THE ZACKS $100,000 CHALLENGE- Java J features a
pharmaceutical company that's on the rise thanks to good news
for its Alzheimer's drug. Read this Simulator participant's
blog post, along with two competitors.
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****************************************************************
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archive of past issues? Go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=2372
Manage your Profit from the Pros subscription:
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==============================================
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS
==============================================
Zacks #1 Rank stocks average a 31.8% annual return. Every day
on Zacks.com we highlight four new Zacks Rank Buy stocks. Each
individual stock is chosen based on how well they match the
criteria for the four main schools of investing: Aggressive
Growth, Momentum, Growth & Income and Value.
Aggressive Growth - O2Micro International (OIIM)
O2Micro International's (OIIM) shares surged over 13% in
Thursday's trading after the integrated circuits maker said it
settled a patent infringement lawsuit with Samsung. Read the
full analysis on OIIM at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2494
Growth & Income - FactSet Research Systems, Inc. (FDS)
FactSet Research Systems, Inc. (FDS), last presented as a
Growth & Income pick on Jan 10, has returned nearly 13%. Over
the past 30 days, six analysts upped their estimates for this
year, while five followed suit for next year. FDS exceeded
analysts' earnings expectations in eight consecutive quarters.
Read the full analysis on FDS at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2495
Momentum - Sotheby's Holdings Inc. (BID)
Sotheby's Holdings Inc. (BID) received favorable comments from
an analyst on Apr 4. Favorable business conditions were cited,
which should result in fourth-quarter and full-year results
that exceed Wall Street expectations. Future revenue catalysts
include the Sotheby's May auction catalogues, which will
likely be published in the next week or so. The analyst
maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock and raised the price
target to $50 from $45, due to higher revenue estimates. BID
is up over 7% since being featured as a momentum stock on Mar
29. Read the full analysis on BID at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2496
Value - MKS Instruments, Inc. (MKSI)
MKS Instruments, Inc. (MKSI), presented as a Value pick on Nov
17, has returned over 26%. MKSI exceeded analysts' earnings
expectations in eight out of the past 10 quarters. Consensus
earnings estimates continue to trend higher for MKSI. Read the
full analysis on MKSI at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2497
Zacks Rank Resources
* Zacks Rank Homepage at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3097
* Zacks Elite: Discover Ben Zacks' hand picked #1 Rank stocks
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==============================================
2) PROFIT TRACKS
==============================================
Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading
strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today
we highlight...
Profit Tracks: Low Price Stocks
Many investors prefer stocks priced below $20 because the low
prices allow them to accumulate more shares. Fortunately,
lower prices do not necessarily mean lower quality.
This strategy identifies stocks priced below $20 that are
trading at discount valuations and have a Zacks Rank of #1
("Strong Buy") or #2 ("Buy"). The stocks identified by this
search strategy trade at price-to-sales (P/S) multiples of 1.0
or below. The strong Zacks Rank is indicative of positive
revisions in earnings estimates. Combining these
characteristics can result in high-dollar returns.
Here are four stocks that make the grade for the Low Price
Stocks Profit Track:
ArvinMeritor, Inc. (ARM), a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy)
company, posted fiscal first-quarter results in late January.
Sales from continuing operations of $2.3 billion increased by
12% from the same period last year. While earnings per share
of 16 cents, before special items, missed the consensus
estimate by 36%, it was the first miss over the past five
consecutive quarters. ARM's price-to-sales ratio stands at
0.13, and the company experienced earnings per share
profitability of $1.69 over the past 12 months. Results for
the second quarter will available on May 1, 2007. Continue
your research on ARM at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2389
Books-A-Million, Inc. (BAMM) earned $1.12 per share during the
past 12 months and sports a price-to-sales ratio of 0.58. The
company announced fourth-quarter earnings of 90 cents per
share in late March, outperforming the consensus estimate by
11%. BAMM noted that improvements in margin, better inventory
management and discipline in cost control contributed to solid
results. Continue your research on BAMM at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2390
Goodman Global, Inc. (GGL) reported fourth-quarter earnings of
16 cents per share in early March, which matched the consensus
estimate. "We delivered a strong finish to a very good year.
We came close to matching our own industry-leading fourth-
quarter 2005 sales performance, and, as a result, produced the
best sales results in the industry, again," remarked Charles
A. Carroll, president and chief executive officer. GGL offers
a price-to-sales ratio of 0.69. The company earned $1.00 per
share during the past 12 months. Continue your research on GGL
at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2391
Rush Enterprises, Inc. (RUSHA) has a price-to-sales ratio of
0.14. During the past 12 months, Rush Enterprises earned $1.94
per share. The company released its fourth-quarter and year-
end results in mid-February. RUSHA mentioned that this was
another record year, for the third year running. Gross revenue
well exceeded the $2 billion mark for the first time in the
company's history, and net income reached record levels as
well. Continue your research on RUSHA at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2392
To see the track details for this winning screen, go to
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2393
All the Profit Track strategies were created and backtested
using the Research Wizard software from Zacks Investment
Research. If you like this screening strategy, but want to
narrow down the list of stocks and even improve the
performance, then you should start a free trial to this
powerful stock picking tool. Learn more about the Research
Wizard free trial offer and our new special report "Top 10
Stock Screening Strategies" at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2394
****************************************************************
SCREEN OF THE WEEK
By Popular Demand
Kevin Matras goes over an exciting screening strategy called
`Best Buys':
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2395
====================================================
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH
====================================================
Big-time buyouts in the real estate market have been grabbing
headlines for weeks now, and we are wondering if hotels and
resorts might be the next targets. Joining us is senior
hotels analyst Sean P. Smith.
Among companies in your coverage, are any considered to be
good buyout candidates?
Well, we've actually already seen a couple that have received
buyout offers and accepted - everything from large hotel
chains such as Four Seasons FS to smaller real estate
investment trusts [REITs] such as Winston Hotels WXH.
Currently, there is a lot of speculation on the Street
concerning Starwood Hotels HOT due to the recent departure of
their CEO. It was announced last week that the CEO was
stepping down, which took a lot of the Street by surprise. He
had only been there about two and a half years. The company
just cited difficulty in management style - really more of a
personality clash.
More...
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Zacks Equity Research cont...
One of the interesting things is that the CEO left without any
kind of severance package, and left some money on the table
there. So that left some people kind of wondering. Over the
weekend, The Wall Street Journal said that it was prompted by
an anonymous letter from an employee regarding potential
personal conflict issues; the CEO denies anything
inappropriate. The company hasn't come out with any real
details, but the main point is, with that CEO being gone, a
lot of people on the Street have considered that Starwood
could be a more likely buyout candidate as they're looking for
a full-time CEO right now.
The stock price went up after last week's news, I believe.
Yes it did. It actually moved from around $64 before the
announcement was made to trade up around $70 to close the week
last week. It's down a little bit after the weekend article,
but that upswing was the initial reaction.
Has the market already priced in a lot of the buyout
possibilities for these companies?
To an extent, but I don't think fully. I think when new news
develops, even the speculation of a buyout - like we just saw
with Starwood - pushes the price up higher. It really depends
on the company, too. When Four Seasons announced last fall
that it was being taken private it was at a pretty substantial
premium. But when Winston Hotels had originally accepted an
offer that was just a few percentage points higher than what
the stock was trading at, in that case we actually saw another
bidder come in with a superior offer. Just last week, the
company announced that it has accepted the higher offer.
Across the board, there may be a small premium priced in on
lodging companies. But as for actual offers that are
occurring, we're still seeing them come in at a premium to the
current trading price.
What does mean for the valuations of these companies?
They are running somewhat higher than the recent historical
averages. But you also have to take into account the fact
that the fundamentals and the outlook are stronger right now
than they have been in recent years, as well. In the lodging
sector, we saw from really the beginning of the Recession in
2000 all the way to 2003-2004, the sector was in a pronounced
slump, as far as operating fundamentals go.
2004 was more of a stabilization year, and then from about
2005 on, we've seen those fundamentals strengthening. So the
higher valuations now as compared to that earlier time period
are certainly warranted. And I think the outlook is pretty
strong. You had seen somewhat of a moderation in occupancy
gains for the hotel companies that are out there, but there is
still significant strength in the ability to push the average
daily room rates higher.
Here's something that's good to remember: it's always good to
fill up the hotel with additional occupancy, but with
additional occupancy comes additional expenses, as well. When
you push the room rate higher, the vast majority of that
actually falls to the bottom line, so it can have a big impact
on a company's actual earnings.
To read the complete Analyst Interview, click
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2379
Sean P. Smith, CFA is a senior analyst covering the lodging
and leisure sectors for Zacks Equity Research.
***********************************************************************
MORE FROM ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH...
Analyst Blog
Real-time market insights from Zacks Equity Research Analysts.
Stocks featured recently include Cutera (CUTR), Centennial
Communications (CYCL), Altria Group (MO) and Alliant Energy
(LNT). Get their latest posts at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2584
BULL OF THE DAY
Kenexa Corp. (KNXA) - Bolstered by M&A.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2376
BEAR OF THE DAY
Affordable Residential (ARC) - Negative Affects.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2377
EARNINGS PREVIEW
The Week of Apr 9 - Apr 13
Alcoa (AA) officially kicks off the first-quarter earnings
season:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3241
Rating Upgrades - New! (Premium)
Find out which stocks have been recently upgraded by
Zacks Equity Research:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2977
Zacks Equity Research Buys - New! (Premium)
Read the reports on all of the stocks on the
Zacks Equity Research Buy List:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2980
****************************************************************
Learn More about Zacks Equity Research at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2268
Full access to Zacks Equity Research is now available on
Zacks.com: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2981
Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in
a portfolio managed by Zacks. Learn more at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2706
==============================================
4) OPTIONS CENTER
==============================================
Zacks has partnered with the leading options experts,
Schaeffer's Investment Research, to provide you the best
options commentary, research, and trading tools on the market
today.
Free Online Options Research at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2664
Zacks/Schaeffer's Options Trading service at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2665
Here is this week's article on how Schaeffer's Tools can help
you Profit with Options.
Last week, we examined the Zacks Put/Call Open Interest Ratio
Filter, which has been good in the past. So I thought I would
stick with the theme to find a stock to help you build your
portfolio.
What is the Put/Call Open Interest Ratio Filter? Well, let's
first define a put and a call. Puts are simply a bet that the
underlying stock is going to move lower, while calls are a bet
that the underlying stock is going to move higher. According
to our glossary, the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio
(SOIR) is a ratio of open puts to open calls among options set
to expire within three months for a given underlying security.
A SOIR greater than one indicates that more puts are open than
calls, indicative of pessimism from the speculative options
crowd. This filter focuses on stocks whose put/call ratios
have exceeded 1.00. Furthermore, a SOIR greater than one
indicates that an unwinding of the existing pessimism could
serve to push the underlying stock higher.
This week's filter on Zacks lists stocks with a SOIR greater
than one. You can sort the results either alphabetically, or
from highest SOIR to lowest SOIR.
Before looking at a particular stock, let's address our
Schaeffer's methodology. We are contrarian-based investors,
indicating that we want to see skepticism toward an
outperforming stock. On the other hand, we want to see
optimism toward an underperformer. In our eyes, too much
optimism is a sign that nearly everyone who wants to invest in
a particular stock already has. Just because a stock sees
substantial optimism doesn't mean that we will blindly short
that particular security; we need to see some negative price
action or a major catalyst for a downside move in order to
pull the trigger in most cases. Other indicators we use to
measure overall sentiment include short interest, magazine
cover stories, media comments, and analyst ratings.
Today's examination of the filter turned up two interesting
plays, Marvel (MVL) and MetLife (MET). I have covered MVL
before, and know that it has been a while since I looked at
MET (if I ever have), so MET wins out.
According to Hoover's, MET is one of the U.S.'s largest
insurers. The company's flagship insurance subsidiary is
Metropolitan Life Insurance Company, but it has more segments.
Its Institutional segment offers group benefits products, its
Individual segment offers consumers the same type of products,
and the International segment offers the same products to
groups and individuals in the Asia/Pacific region, Europe, and
Latin America.
Technically, MET is solid. While this may seem a bit
simplistic, it is true. The stock currently enjoys the
support of its 10-month and 20-month moving averages. The
last time the equity finished a month below these two
trendlines was February 2003. In addition, the 10-month
trendline is currently approaching the round-number 60 level,
which has acted as support in the past four months.
Additional support is found in the form of MET's 10-week and
20-week moving averages. These two trendlines have helped
push the stock higher without fail since last June.
Furthermore, both of these trendlines are ascending and beyond
the 62 level.
In addition, the 60 level is far and away the site of peak put
open interest in the front three months of options. This
accumulation of bearish bets could provide an extra layer of
support if needed. Of course, the fact that 60 is a round-
number level will also help to bolster its potential support.
Of course, the options players look at MET's performance and
decide that it is the perfect stock to be bearish toward.
Obviously, MET will have a high SOIR, but its performance
belies its SOIR of 3.56. This ratio is in the 99th
percentile, meaning that the options players have been more
bearish only 1% of the time. This is an attractive reading
because it indicates more than enough pessimism to unwind and
turn into buying pressure, which could help push the stock
higher still.
In addition, short interest toward MET is plentiful. During
March, the number of shorted shares against the insurer
increased by an astounding 187%. Thanks to this jump, more
than 4% of MET's float is sold short. What's more, it would
take more than seven days to buy back these shorted shares.
This accumulation could provide the impetus for an impressive
short-covering rally should any good news send the bears
scrambling to cover their shorts.
Another good way to get a gauge of sentiment is to look at
analysts' opinions. According to Zacks, one half of the 12
analysts following MET rate it a "hold" or worse. Should this
bearish bunch join the remaining six analysts on the bullish
side of the equation, the shares could be pushed higher still.
MET's outstanding performance in the face of bearish sentiment
makes it a near-perfect contrarian play. Keep an eye on MET
and paper trade it. See where it goes in the next few weeks
(or months). The savvy contrarian could receive a bit of
portfolio insurance in the form of MET.
Make sure to continue utilizing all of the valuable filters on
these pages for more money-making ideas. Moreover, don't be
afraid to make a few paper trades in order to see what
strategy works best for you. Please remember that, when it
comes to options, the majority of your trades are going to be
losers. Don't get discouraged, because that's the beauty of
the leverage that options provide. It takes only a few winners
out of every 10 trades to make you a very happy investor.
Thanks for reading, best of luck in your trading!
To learn more about the Put/Call Ratio filter, click here:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2381
Discover all the tools and commentary available from the
Zacks.com Options Center at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2382
Zacks Rank + Options = Trading Success!
Leverage the timeliness of Zacks #1 Rank stocks with options
trades that maximize profits and minimize risks. Learn more
about our new Options Trading service at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2666
==============================================
5) Best of the Zacks $100,000 Challenge
==============================================
Zacks is conducting a nationwide talent search to find the
very best stock pickers. The winner gets a $100,000 dream job
with Zacks! Sign up for free to join the competition, or just
read what stocks the leading players are trading on the Zacks
Challenge Player Blogs. http://at.zacks.com/?id=3504
Best of the Zacks Challenge Player Blogs
-----------------------------------------
Here's what the leading players are saying lately:
Java J (Rank #373 with $111,174)
MEMORY PHARMA... UP 50% TODAY... PROGRESS ON ALZHEIMERS DRUG...
(MEMY)
Memory Pharmaceuticals is up nearly 50% today on good news
related to the company's Alzheimer's drug MEM 1003... stock
gapped up on the open to $2 and has continued to rally from
opening prices... In my view, the heavy trading volume we are
seeing, the sustained rally above the gap-up area, and the
fact that the stock is now trading above the 200 day mvg are
all very bullish signs...
Read More or Comment on this post:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3505
Beris (Rank #16 with $144,362)
FRONTEER ROARING AGAIN! (FRG)
Together with Cameco, we see Fronteer (FRG) and Uranerz (URZ)
hitting new 52-week highs as oil and gasoline prices remain
high, and environment is becoming a priority for most
countries. You ain't seen nothing yet...
Read More or Comment on this post:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3506
MightyMo
STRONG SECTOR: THE UTILITIES #6
As we continue our ongoing look at this sector, the utility
group looks extremely strong prior to the market open today.
Headed by MIR... possible sale... as I said all along...,
consolidation, merger, asset sales... have driven this group...
Read More or Comment on this post:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3507
Read all the Player Blog posts at:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3504
****************************************************************
OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS
At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank
investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the
market. Our Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) List has generated the
following results for investors:
* +31.8% average annual return since 1988 versus +11.8% for
S&P 500
* Outperformed S&P 500 in 17 of the last 18 years
* +43.8% total return from 2000 to 2002 - the worst
bear market in over 60 years.
* +18% in 2005
And just as importantly, the Zacks #5 Rank stocks (Strong
Sell) list has alerted investors as to which stocks to dump
from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses.
To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first
understand how it works. That's why we created the free
special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of
Earnings Estimate Revisions. Download a free copy now to
prosper in the years to come by visiting
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2385
Or view the full list of Zacks #1 Rank (Premium) stocks at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2383
FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER
Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
* Broker Recommendation changes
* Earning Estimate revisions
* Earnings Announcements
* Zacks Rank changes
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these
changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000
investors who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio
Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not,
then sign up now to get this vital information sent to you
daily and improve your portfolio's performance. Did we mention
it's free? Get started now by going to
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2386
---------------------------------------------------------
We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Zacks.com Profit from the
Pros" and we look forward to visiting with you again tomorrow.
REFER-A-FRIEND
If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along
to a friend. Simply forward them the link below to sign up for
their own free subscription. If you're reading a forwarded
copy, sign up for your own, so you get this wealth of
information every week. Just click on the link below. THANKS!
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Regards and Happy Investing,
Charles Rotblut, CFA
Senior Market Analyst
Zacks.com
p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros?
To find out how we will help you become a more
successful investor, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=2388
The Zacks Performance Rank performance is the total return
(price changes + dividends) of equal weighted portfolios,
consisting of those stocks with the indicated Zacks Rank,
assuming zero transaction costs and monthly rebalancing.
Simulated results do not represent actual trading and may not
reflect the impact that economic and market factors might have
had on decision-making if an adviser were actually managing a
client's money.
*The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the
prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip
stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index
assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect
advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an
index.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future
results. Investors should always research companies and
securities before making any investments. Nothing herein
should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell
any security.
To contact us by mail:
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Attn: Profit from the Pros
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To unsubscribe from receiving "Zacks.com Profit from the Pros"
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4/9/2007 ***********************************************
ZACKS.COM PROFIT from the PROS
** Tactics that Work in Good and Bad Markets **
***********************************************
Today's Topics: Monday - April 9, 2007
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS - Today we highlight four new stocks
with a short-term "Buy" or "Strong Buy" recommendation:
Omnicell (OMCL), Monsanto Company (MON), RBC Bearings (ROLL)
and Asbury Automotive Group (ABG). Get these stories below.
2) PROFIT TRACKS - DISCOUNTED FUNDAMENTAL STRENGTH - Find
stocks with strong underlying fundamentals and low valuations.
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH - Alcoa (AA) officially starts the
first-quarter earnings season on Tuesday. Read the Earnings
Preview and get our Bull and Bear Stocks of the Day.
4) RESEARCH DIGEST - Stocks recently upgraded by brokerage
analysts include Tiffany & Company (TIF), Morgan Stanley (MS),
Citigroup (C) and Emerson Electric Company (EMR).
5) FEATURED EXPERTS - Kelley Wright of the Investment Quality
Trends newsletter explains how investors are getting sucked
into the spin cycle of the Wall Street merry-go-round.
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Want to view the online version of Profit from the Pros or the
archive of past issues? Go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=2314
Manage your Profit from the Pros subscription:
* Free Subscription http://at.zacks.com/?id=2311
* Change of Address http://at.zacks.com/?id=2315
* Unsubscribe http://at.zacks.com/?id=2313
==============================================
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS
==============================================
Zacks #1 Rank stocks average a 31.8% annual return. Every day
on Zacks.com we highlight four new Zacks Rank Buy stocks. Each
individual stock is chosen based on how well they match the
criteria for the four main schools of investing: Aggressive
Growth, Momentum, Growth & Income and Value.
Aggressive Growth - Omnicell, Inc. (OMCL)
Omnicell, Inc. (OMCL) has posted double-digit earnings
surprises in five consecutive quarters. Investors rewarded the
stock with big price gains in four out of those five periods.
Four analysts have raised their estimates for this year. Over
the past 90 days, this year's estimates have jumped nine cents
to 57 cents per share. The company is sporting a 15 ROE, well
above the industry's average of 6%. Read the full analysis on
OMCL at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2510
Growth & Income - Monsanto Company (MON)
Monsanto Company (MON), a stock that we first featured on Jan
17, continues to shine. The company exceeded analysts'
earnings expectations in seven out of the past eight quarters
by an average margin of 12.7%. After posting solid results for
the second quarter and first half of fiscal 2007, MON raised
its full-year profit guidance to between $1.60 and $1.65 per
share. The company has a current dividend yield of 0.89%. Read
the full analysis on MON at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2511
Momentum - RBC Bearings Inc. (ROLL)
RBC Bearings Inc. (ROLL) is up 17.8% for 2007, furthered by an
8.6% earnings surprise reported in February. A recent
technical breakout on solid volume should reinforce the
underlying trend. Read the full analysis on ROLL at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2512
Value - Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG)
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG), a Zacks #1 Rank stock,
exceeded analysts' earnings expectations in six out of the
past seven quarters by an average margin of 8.6%. Consensus
estimates have been on the rise over the past two months. The
Board of Directors has returned value to shareholders through
both stock buybacks and dividend payments. ABG is currently
yielding 2.8%. The company has a price-to-book ratio of only
1.6, compared to 4.3 for the market. Read the full analysis on
ABG at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2513
Zacks Rank Resources
* Zacks Rank Homepage at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3095
* Zacks Elite: Discover Ben Zacks' hand picked #1 Rank stocks
on his Timely Buys list at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2538
* Zacks Rank Breakout Trader: When a stock moves quickly to a
Zacks #1 Rank, this trading service uses that turnaround to
make 55% a year. Learn more at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=3501
* Zacks Options Trader: Combine the timeliness of Zacks #1
Rank stocks with the explosive profit potential of options.
Learn more at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2700
* Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in
a portfolio managed by Zacks. Learn more at
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==============================================
2) PROFIT TRACKS
==============================================
Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading
strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today
we highlight...
Profit Tracks: Discounted Fundamental Strength
This Profit Track identifies stocks with strong underlying
fundamentals and low valuations. These are companies with
solid balance sheets and a history of profitability that are
reasonably priced. Although conservative in approach, this
strategy has generated double-digit returns for five
consecutive years.
Here are four stocks that make the grade for the Discounted
Fundamental Strength Profit Track:
Ducommun Inc. (DCO) offers a PEG ratio of 0.89. The company
has a debt to equity ratio of .16 and its current ratio stands
at 1.82. In late February, Ducommun announced fourth-quarter
earnings of 41 cents per share. The result exceeded the
consensus estimate by 14 cents and surpassed the previous
year's seven cents. The 21% profit surge was largely the
result of tax benefits related to research and development tax
credits. The company has a five-year ROA of 6.18%. Continue
your research on DCO at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2254
Lifetime Brands Inc. (LCUT) reported fourth-quarter earnings
of 62 cents per share in early March. The result exceeded
analysts' estimates by one cent and year-ago numbers by two
cents. According to CEO Jeffrey Siegel, "Overall, we believe
Lifetime is well-positioned to grow in 2007. As a result of
our traditional strengths - including our portfolio of
powerful brands, outstanding innovation capabilities, advanced
product sourcing and strong retail placement - we continue to
expect net sales to increase to $540 - $575 million and
diluted earnings per share to increase to $1.40 - $1.70." LCUT
satisfies the criteria of this Profit Track with a PEG ratio
of 0.75 and a price to sales multiple of 0.59. Continue your
research on LCUT at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2255
Terex Corp. (TEX) has a current ratio of 1.69 and a debt to
equity ratio of 0.31. In early February, the company posted
fourth-quarter earnings of 97 cents per share on revenues of
$2.03 billion, a 29% increase. The results beat the consensus
estimate by four cents and outperformed year-ago numbers. The
report was the ninth consecutive positive earnings surprise.
The company also reported guidance that was above analyst
expectations. Continue your research on TEX at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2256
Stein Mart Inc. (SMRT) released fourth-quarter earnings of 48
cents per share, eclipsing the year-ago total of 45 cents per
share and outpacing the consensus estimate by 17.07%. First-
quarter same-store sales, apparently hurt by bad weather, rose
by .9%; however, company officials expect March same-store
sales to rise due to an early Easter holiday. The company's
debt to equity level is 0.10 and its current ratio stands at
1.89. Continue your research on SMRT at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2257
To see the track details for this winning screen, go to
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2258
All the Profit Track strategies were created and backtested
using the Research Wizard software from Zacks Investment
Research. If you like this screening strategy, but want to
narrow down the list of stocks and even improve the
performance, then you should start a free trial to this
powerful stock picking tool. Learn more about the Research
Wizard free trial offer and our new special report "Top 10
Stock Screening Strategies" at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2307
****************************************************************
SCREEN OF THE WEEK
By Popular Demand
Kevin Matras goes over an exciting screening strategy called
`Best Buys':
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2259
====================================================
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH
====================================================
Alcoa's (AA) first-quarter report, scheduled for Tuesday
afternoon, will officially kickoff first-quarter earnings
season. The aluminum producer is expected to report profits of
75 cents per share, though the Most Recent Consensus calls for
76 cents per share.
Joining Alcoa during the week of Apr 9 will be 32 other
companies with earnings reports, including S&P 500 members:
Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY), General Electric (GE) and MGIC
Investment (MGIC).
As I recently stated on our blog, first-quarter earnings for
the S&P 500 appear to be on track for another quarter of
double-digit growth. The consensus estimate calls for
operating earnings to total $22.48 versus $20.75 a year prior.
This equates to first-quarter year-over-year growth of 8.3%.
If actual earnings are just 1.5% better than analysts expect,
first-quarter growth will hit 10%. Given the propensity of
CFOs to beat earnings expectations, a double-digit growth rate
is within the realm of probabilities.
More...
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Best of Zacks Equity Research continued...
The economic calendar is light. Minutes from the March Fed
meeting should be released on Wednesday afternoon. Thursday
brings March import prices and weekly initial jobless claims.
Friday features the February trade balance, March PPI and the
preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence
numbers.
Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises During
the Week of Apr 9 - 13
Six brokerage analysts have raised their fiscal fourth-quarter
estimates on Research in Motion (RIMM) over the past 30 days.
The revisions were not material enough to move the consensus
estimate (we have forecasts from 26 analysts for RIMM), but
the Most Recent Consensus, which reflects these revisions, is
bullish. The Most Recent Consensus (the average of forecasts
published over the past 30 days) calls for earnings of $1.01
per share versus the consensus estimate (the average of all
published forecasts) of 98 cents per share. Investors should
note, however, that RIMM's fiscal third-quarter earnings were
a penny below expectations. Research in Motion is scheduled to
report preliminary results on Wednesday, Apr 11, after the
close of trading.
To read the complete Earnings Preview, click
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3234
Charles Rotblut, CFA is the Senior Market Analyst for
Zacks.com.
****************************************************************
MORE FROM ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH...
Analyst Blog
Real-time market insights from Zacks Equity Research Analysts.
Stocks featured recently include Cognos (COGN), ViroPharma
(VPHM), L-3 Communications (LLL) and Anheuser-Busch Companies
(BUD). See their latest posts at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2589
BULL OF THE DAY
Anheuser-Busch (BUD) - Strong Outlook.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2250
BEAR OF THE DAY
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (SID) - Overvalued.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2251
ZACKS ANALYST INTERVIEW
Small-Cap Taking Off in Select Markets
A number of biotech companies are moving into advanced phases
of drug development:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2723
EARNINGS TRENDS
Growth to Slow in the First Quarter
More estimates for 2007 are being cut than raised,
particularly for Industrial and Consumer Discretionary stocks:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2252
Rating Upgrades - New! (Premium)
Find out which stocks have been recently upgraded by
Zacks Equity Research:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2959
Zacks Equity Research Buys - New! (Premium)
Read the reports on all of the stocks on the
Zacks Equity Research Buy List:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2960
****************************************************************
Learn More about Zacks Equity Research at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2253
Full access to Zacks Equity Research is now available on
Zacks.com: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2961
Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in a
portfolio managed by Zacks. Learn more at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2699
==============================================
4) Research Digest
==============================================
What is Wall Street saying about your stocks? You'll find the
answer in our exclusive Research Digest reports. Here is a
synopsis of stocks with recent broker upgrades:
Tiffany & Company's (TIF) Average Broker Recommendation is up
to 2.00. The company's brand strength remains the key to its
long-term growth, according to most of the analysts polled at
Zacks Research Digest. In addition, the company continues to
add variety to product offerings at all price points, with
fresh additions to the lineup procured indigenously as well as
from its other designers. The recent weakness in consumer
spending in Japan has created an additional challenge for the
company. But, analysts believe Tiffany's initiatives, such as
new merchandise, increased marketing, new management and
updated or relocated stores should pay off in the long run.
Read the Research Digest report on TIF (Premium) at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3401
Morgan Stanley (MS) put together a strong fiscal first
quarter, which helped the global financial services firm's
Average Broker Recommendation rise to 2.10 of late. Over the
next two years, analysts polled at Zacks Research Digest
expect the company to generate stronger revenue growth,
elevate margins and narrow the ROE gap with peers. Such
progress is attributable to Morgan Stanley's recent
investments, cost savings and efficient use of capital. Other
growth opportunities include emerging markets, as well as the
strong performance in its institutional securities segment and
the spin-off of Discover. Read the Research Digest report on
MS (Premium) at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3402
Citigroup (C) is seen by analysts polled at Zacks Research
Digest as a well-diversified financial services organization,
which has strategically disposed off its slower growth and
lower return businesses in the past quarters to boost longer-
term growth rates and returns. In addition, it's exposure to
the world's largest emerging markets such as China, Korea,
India, Russia and Mexico, are driving strong growth on the
consumer side as well. Finally, C generates significant excess
capital and is likely to continue buying back its shares and
raising its dividend. Citigroup's Average Broker
Recommendation has risen to 1.88. Read the Research Digest
report on C (Premium) at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3403
Emerson Electric Company (EMR) has watched its Average Broker
Recommendation rise to 1.73 of late. Analysts appreciate
several aspects of this company, including its large installed
base and leading market positions across numerous product
lines. Also, according to Zacks Research Digest, Emerson
Electric offers a broad end-market exposure and regional
diversity, which allows it to be solidly profitable and able
to invest in times of weakness. The company has a history of
earnings growth and of reporting quality earnings, and is
initiating structural improvements by relocating to low-cost
regions. Read the Research Digest report on EMR (Premium) at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3404
See all Research Digest Reports (Premium)
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2965
Broker Research Resources
All Star Analyst Portfolio
These are the best stock picks from the best stock pickers on
Wall Street (aka 5 Star Analysts)
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2966
Broker Rating Upgrades
Find out which stocks brokers have recently upgraded.
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2967
==============================================
5) FEATURED EXPERTS
==============================================
Here we cast the spotlight on timely Featured Expert
commentaries that recently appeared on Zacks.com.
Ignore the Noise Machine
Kelley Wright of the Investment Quality Trends newsletter
explains how investors are getting sucked into the spin cycle
of the Wall Street merry-go-round.
http://at.zacks.com/?id=170
The Heart Beat
BioTech Stock Report's Nadine Wong explains how there are a
number of therapeutic approaches to treat patients with heart
failure.
http://at.zacks.com/?id=1779
The Street Pricing in Headwinds
In his Dow Theory Forecasts newsletter, Richard Moroney says
many on Wall Street are worried about the business outlook.
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2419
****************************************************************
OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS
At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank
investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the
market. Our Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) List has generated the
following results for investors:
* +31.8% average annual return since 1988 versus +11.8% for
S&P 500
* Outperformed S&P 500 in 17 of the last 18 years
* +43.8% total return from 2000 to 2002 - the worst
bear market in over 60 years.
* +18% in 2005
And just as importantly, the Zacks #5 Rank stocks (Strong
Sell) list has alerted investors as to which stocks to dump
from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses.
To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first
understand how it works. That's why we created the free
special report: Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of
Earnings Estimate Revisions. Download a free copy now to
prosper in the years to come by visiting
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2309
Or view the full list of Zacks #1 Rank (Premium) stocks at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2266
FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER
Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
* Broker Recommendation changes
* Earning Estimate revisions
* Earnings Announcements
* Zacks Rank changes
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these
changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000
investors who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio
Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not,
then sign up now to get this vital information sent to you
daily and improve your portfolio's performance. Did we mention
it's free? Get started now by going to
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2310
---------------------------------------------------------
We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Zacks.com Profit from the
Pros" and we look forward to visiting with you again tomorrow.
REFER-A-FRIEND
If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along
to a friend. Simply forward them the link below to sign up for
their own free subscription. If you're reading a forwarded
copy, sign up for your own, so you get this wealth of
information every week. Just click on the link below. THANKS!
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2311
Regards and Happy Investing,
Charles Rotblut, CFA
Senior Market Analyst
Zacks.com
p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros?
To find out how we will help you become a more
successful investor, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=2312
The Zacks Performance Rank performance is the total return
(price changes + dividends) of equal weighted portfolios,
consisting of those stocks with the indicated Zacks Rank,
assuming zero transaction costs and monthly rebalancing.
Simulated results do not represent actual trading and may not
reflect the impact that economic and market factors might have
had on decision-making if an adviser were actually managing a
client's money.
*The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the
prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip
stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index
assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect
advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an
index.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future
results. Investors should always research companies and
securities before making any investments. Nothing herein
should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell
any security.
To contact us by mail:
Zacks Investment Research
Attn: Profit from the Pros
111 N. Canal St., Suite 1101
Chicago, IL 60606
To unsubscribe from receiving "Zacks.com Profit from the Pros"
e-mail newsletter, go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=2313
4/5/2007 ***********************************************
ZACKS.COM PROFIT from the PROS
** Tactics that Work in Good and Bad Markets **
***********************************************
Dear Subscriber,
The markets will be closed tomorrow, April 6.
Zacks.com portfolio alerts will be sent out tomorrow morning,
but not Profit from the Pros. The next issue of this newsletter
will be sent on Monday morning.
Happy Easter and Happy Passover,
Charles Rotblut, CFA
Zacks.com Senior Market Analyst and
Profit from the Pros Editor
***********************************************
Today's Topics: Thursday - April 5, 2007
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS - Today we highlight four new stocks
with a short-term "Buy" or "Strong Buy" recommendation: Penson
Worldwide (PNSN), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Medco Health
Solutions (MHS) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV). Get these
stories below.
2) BEST OF THE ZACKS $100,000 CHALLENGE- Fundamental research
has allowed MackTheKnife to generate an impressive performance.
Read this Simulator Player's interview and take a look at the
Zacks Challenge Player Blog.
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH - Price increases and cost-cutting
measures are sweetening profit forecasts for candy makers.
Read the Industry Rank Analysis and get our Bull and Bear
Stocks of the Day.
4) PROFIT TRACKS - RECENT PRICE STRENGTH - Find stocks trading
in the upper ranges of their 52-week highs through this
screening method.
5) ZacksElite.com TIMELY BUY OF THE WEEK - Despite
Priceline.com's (PCLN) big runup, it is attractively priced at
19x next year's estimates.
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June. Act before it does, and a 942% gain could be yours.
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3555
****************************************************************
Want to view the online version of Profit from the Pros or the
archive of past issues? Go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=2337
Manage your Profit from the Pros subscription:
* Free Subscription http://at.zacks.com/?id=2338
* Change of Address http://at.zacks.com/?id=2339
* Unsubscribe http://at.zacks.com/?id=2340
==============================================
1) ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS
==============================================
Zacks #1 Rank stocks average a 31.8% annual return. Every day
on Zacks.com we highlight four new Zacks Rank Buy stocks. Each
individual stock is chosen based on how well they match the
criteria for the four main schools of investing: Aggressive
Growth, Momentum, Growth & Income and Value.
Aggressive Growth - Penson Worldwide, Inc. (PNSN)
Penson Worldwide, Inc. (PNSN) is a recent IPO and doesn't have
much of an earnings history, but the early results are quite
encouraging. This is an under-followed growth story that could
generate buzz when it catches onto the mainstream investing
public. Over the past month, this year's earnings estimates
have increased three cents to $1.47 per share. The stock is
attractively valued at 16.8x next year's estimates. Read the
full analysis on PNSN at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3106
Growth & Income - Microchip Technology (MCHP)
Microchip Technology (MCHP) has met or exceeded earnings
estimates in each of the past eight quarters. Year-over-year
earnings growth has consistently exceeded 20% over this time
period. The company pays a 3% dividend yield, which is rare
for a technology stock. The stock is reasonably valued at
23.8x next year's estimates. Read the full analysis on MCHP at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3108
Momentum - Medco Health Solutions Inc. (MHS)
Medco Health Solutions Inc. (MHS) recently reported a positive
earnings surprise, raised 2007 guidance, and announced an
additional stock repurchase plan. The stock is trading at
record highs and looks to continue its upward trend. Read the
analysis of MHS at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3109
Value - National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NOV)
National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NOV) continues to benefit from
solid fundamentals, rising oil prices and a solid backlog of
new orders. Despite a year-to-date return of 27.8%, the stock
continues to trade at a discount to the market and in-line
with the industry average. Read the full analysis on NOV at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3110
Zacks Rank Resources
* Zacks Rank Homepage at http://at.zacks.com/?id=3104
* Zacks Elite: Discover Ben Zacks' hand picked #1 Rank stocks
on his Timely Buys list at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2550
* Zacks Rank Breakout Trader: When a stock moves quickly to a
Zacks #1 Rank, this trading service uses that turnaround to
make 55% a year. Learn more at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=3496
* Zacks Options Trader: Combine the timeliness of Zacks #1
Rank stocks with the explosive profit potential of options.
Learn more at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2689
* Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in
a portfolio managed by Zacks. Learn more at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2551
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Learn more about these best of the best #1 ranked stocks. This
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you must subscribe now.
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==============================================
2) Best of the Zacks $100,000 Challenge
==============================================
Zacks is conducting a nationwide talent search to find the
very best stock pickers. The winner gets a $100,000 dream job
with Zacks! Sign up for free to join the competition, or just
read what stocks the leading players are trading on the Zacks
Challenge Player Blogs. http://at.zacks.com/?id=3469
Best of the Zacks Challenge Player Blogs
-----------------------------------------
Here's what the leading players are saying lately:
MightyMo
STRONG SECTOR: THE UTILITIES #5
I made my first recommendations on DYN, CEG, PEG on Mar 16.
Since then I've added two more to "MO's utility watch list".
Here is how they have performed...
Read More or Comment on this post:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3478
Momotrader12 (Rank #361 with $109,887)
STOCKS WITH PENDING ORDERS (SIMO, PACR, MTOX, CYNO, JSDA)
I have orders out on the following: SIMO: I raised my stop
limit on this after SIMO moved up Tuesday, but it is up
against resistance at the 20ema. So with a tight stop, I will
protect my 8% profit...
Read More or Comment on this post:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3479
Read all the Player Blog posts at:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3482
Top Zacks Challenge Player Interview: MackTheKnife
----------------------------------------------------------
J.J. McGrath (aka MackTheKnife) won the first-quarter Zacks
Options Challenge and is currently ranked in 10th place in the
Zacks $100K Challenge. In the Options Challenge, he generated
a return of approximately 673% in three months. In the Zacks
$100K Challenge, he is up an impressive 53%.
This player relies on fundamental research to find stocks with
upside. "As a diversified options trader and stock investor, I
focus on the equities of companies with compelling growth-and-
value characteristics, as well as effective managements,"
explained JJ. "On the one hand, I like to see perceived growth
in gross revenue, net income, and free cash flow (among other
metrics). On the other hand, I like to see reasonable price-
to-book, price-to-earnings, and price-to-sales ratios (among
other metrics). I also want portfolio companies to have debt-
to-equity ratios of 0.5 or less, as well as comparatively
favorable returns on assets, capital, and equity."
J.J.'s number of trades has been below average for most
Simulator players, but his choices tend to be profitable. For
instance, he held on to Patterson-UTI Energy for seven weeks
and closed out the position with a gain. He currently holds
Dendreon (DNDN), Vaalco Energy (EGY) and Supergen (SUPG) in
his Zacks $100K Challenge portfolio. Take a look at his entire
trading history by clicking here: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2515
Click here to read the whole interview with MackTheKnife:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2518
Click here for more on the Zacks $100,000 Challenge:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=3469
====================================================
3) ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH
====================================================
Some of you may notice that Food-Confectionery is near the top
of the Industry Rank List. This small group is comprised of
three Zacks #2 Rank ("buy") stocks: Hershey (HSY), Toostie
Roll Industries (TR) and WM Wrigley (WWY).
Rising commodity prices, particularly sugar and corn, are a
concern for all three companies. However, the candy companies
are attempting to pass along the higher costs to consumers.
For instance, Wrigley recently announced its intention to
raise prices by 10% on most products. (WWY and HSY are also
engaging in cost-cutting strategies to improve their margins.)
More...
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Best of Zacks Equity Research continued...
Brokerage analysts seem to believe that the companies will
have some success in managing the higher commodity costs.
Full-year profit projections for HSY are up two cents over the
30 days to $2.55 per share. The sole analyst covering TR has
raised his full-year forecast by six cents over the past 60
days to $1.29 per share. Two of the 14 analysts covering WWY
have adjusted their projections within the past 30 days,
causing the consensus estimate to rise by a penny to $2.21 per
share.
________________________________________
Steel Dynamics (STLD) recently raised its first-quarter
guidance. The company now expects to earn between 94 and 98
cents per share this quarter versus its previous forecast of
85 to 90 cents per share.
Steel Dynamics' CEO, Keith Busse, credited "decreased import
activity and lower inventories at steel service centers" for
improving market conditions. Inventory levels had been a
concern for the industry because of higher Chinese production
and weak demand by automakers. Brokerage analysts raised their
forecasts on STLD following the release of the new forecast,
sending the consensus first-quarter earnings estimate up by a
cumulative nine cents to 96 cents per share. Full-year
estimates are 12 cents higher at $3.82 per share.
There have been some signs of a spillover effect. For example,
one analyst raised his second-quarter profit forecast on U.S.
Steel (X) within the past week, causing the consensus estimate
to move seven cents higher to $2.49 per share. In addition,
three of the 14 covering brokerage analysts have adjusted
their full-year projections. The new full-year earnings
estimate of $9.28 per share is 16 cents higher than a week
ago. (The first-quarter consensus estimate is unchanged.)
Both STLD and X are Zacks #2 Rank stocks and are classified in
Steel-Producers. This group also contains one Zacks #1 Rank
("strong buy"), Gerdau (GGB), and three other Zacks #2 Rank
stocks.
To read the complete Industry Rank Analysis, click
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2344
Charles Rotblut, CFA is the senior market analyst for Zacks
Equity Research.
****************************************************************
MORE FROM ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH...
Analyst Blog
Real-time market insights from Zacks Equity Research Analysts.
Stocks featured recently include Starwood Hotels & Resorts
(HOT), Winston Hotels (WXH), Pozen (POZN) and Infosys (INFY).
See their latest posts at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2585
BULL OF THE DAY
Huaneng Power (HNP) - Strong Market.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2341
BEAR OF THE DAY
Universal Technical Institute (UTI) - Weakened Margins.
Full Zacks research report at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2342
ZACKS ANALYST INTERVIEW
Home Sales Numbers Overblown
We believe data may end up overestimating the amount of
existing home sales in future months:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2693
EARNINGS TRENDS
Growth to Slow in First Quarter
More estimates for 2007 are being cut than raised,
particularly for Industrial and Consumer Discretionary stocks:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2343
Rating Upgrades - New! (Premium)
Find out which stocks have been recently upgraded by Zacks
Equity Research:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2997
Zacks Equity Research Buys - New! (Premium)
Read the reports on all of the stocks on the
Zacks Equity Research Buy List:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2998
****************************************************************
Learn More about Zacks Equity Research at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2268
Full access to Zacks Equity Research is now available on
Zacks.com:
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2999
Zacks Wealth Management: Own all the Zacks #1 Rank stocks in a
portfolio managed by Zacks. Learn more at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2691
==============================================
4) PROFIT TRACKS
==============================================
Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading
strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today
we highlight...
Profit Tracks: Recent Price Strength
This screen looks for stocks trading in the upper range of
their 52-week highs along with attractive Zacks Rank and
Broker Ratings. This strategy proves that the "trend is your
friend" with a +35.5% return versus +4.9% for the S&P 500 in
2005.
Here are four stocks that make the grade for the Recent Price
Strength Profit Track:
Brush Engineered Materials Inc. (BW) is a Zacks #1 Rank
(Strong Buy) company. BW is trading at 52-week highs and has
experienced 16.2% growth over the past four weeks. In mid-
February, the company posted fourth-quarter earnings of 44
cents per share, five cents above consensus estimates. BW also
reported full-year guidance that surpassed expectations.
According to company officials, 2007 is off to a more robust
start than expected and continues to profit from strong market
conditions and progress with key programs. Continue your
research on BW at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2354
SkillSoft PLC (SKIL) recently reported fourth-quarter earnings
of eight cents per share, up from four cents in the year-ago
period, and two cents above expectations. The 33.3% earnings
surprise marked the eighth consecutive double-digit surprise.
In addition, the stock was recently upgraded to a "Buy" from
"Hold" due to valuation and improving business fundamentals.
SKIL is trading at 52-week highs and has experienced over 20%
growth over the past four weeks. Continue your research on
SKIL at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2355
GigaMedia Ltd. (GIGM) recently announced fourth-quarter
earnings of 17 cents per share, exceeding the consensus
estimate by 41.67%. For the first quarter, the company expects
solid contributions from its Asian online games business.
According to CEO Arthur Wang, "We are seeing but the early
returns from our investments and strategic steps to build a
dominant online entertainment business." GIGM has increased by
25.6% over the past four weeks and is currently trading at a
new 52-week high. Continue your research on GIGM at
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2356
ICF International Inc. (ICFI) is a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy)
company. ICF International reported fourth-quarter earnings of
65 cents per share, reversing last year's loss and surpassing
the consensus estimate by 110%. The outstanding results were
largely the result of a large contract related to Hurricane
Katrina. The company also forecasted first-quarter and full-
year 2007 revenue well above analyst expectations. ICFI is
trading near the 52-week high and its share price increased by
26.9% over the past four weeks. Continue your research on ICFI
at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2357
To see the track details for this winning screen, go to
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2358
All the Profit Track strategies were created and backtested
using the Research Wizard software from Zacks Investment
Research. If you like this screening strategy, but want to
narrow down the list of stocks and even improve the
performance, then you should start a free trial to this
powerful stock picking tool. Learn more about the Research
Wizard free trial offer and our new special report "Top 10
Stock Screening Strategies" at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2359
****************************************************************
SCREEN OF THE WEEK
By Popular Demand
Kevin Matras goes over an exciting screening strategy called
`Best Buys':
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2360
==============================================
5) ZacksElite.com TIMELY BUY of the WEEK
==============================================
Here you'll discover a Zacks #1 Rank stock hand selected by
Ben Zacks to outperform the market over the next 30 to 90
days. This week's Timely Buy is...
Priceline.com (PCLN)
------------------------------------------------
Priceline.com (PCLN) is a travel service that offers leisure
airline tickets, hotel rooms, rental cars, vacation packages,
and cruises. The company operates as priceline.com,
rentalcars.com, breezenet.com, and lowestfares.com.
The company's Name Your Own Price service (also called its
opaque business) offers customers a unique value proposition
by allowing them to name their own price for online
products/services. In these transactions, Priceline.com
determines the price it will accept and has discretion in
supplier selection. PCLN's value-add to suppliers is that
Priceline.com provides a brand preserving sales service that
enables them to sell excess inventory without harming their
existing retail pricing structure.
Priceline.com's international business expansion and increased
retail offerings continue to be the primary drivers of its
overall growth.
The company recently released its financial results for the
fourth quarter and full-year 2006. Earnings per share
increased on a year-over-year basis in both categories. The
fourth-quarter earnings per share result was 36% ahead of the
consensus estimate. In fact, four out of the past five
consecutive quarters, earnings were above expectations.
Fourth-quarter gross travel bookings improved by 38.3% from
the year-ago quarter, while full-year results increased by
49.1% year-over-year.
Revenues in the fourth quarter were up 27.5% from the year-
prior. Full-year revenues were $1.1 billion, compared to last
year's $962.7 million.
PCLN stated that two major factors contributed to its over-
performance in the fourth quarter. First it was the strong
performance of Booking.com, the company's European business.
Second, high retail travel prices during the holidays created
strong demand for priceline.com's money-saving domestic
services, particularly its Name Your Own Price(R) option.
Over the past 60 days, next year's earnings estimates have
jumped 37 cents to $2.86 per share. Despite the stock's big
runup, it is attractively priced at 19x next year's estimates.
This is slightly above its long-term growth rate of 17.6%.
****************************************************************
About Zacks Timely Buy of the Week
Each week we highlight one stock from the ZacksElite.com
Timely Buys list. This exclusive portfolio selected by Ben
Zacks has beaten the S&P 500 every single year since inception
in 1996. $10,000 invested in this strategy since inception
would now be worth $115,319 versus only $23,597 invested in
the S&P 500.
Click here to learn more about ZacksElite.com and the free
trial offer http://at.zacks.com/?id=2346
****************************************************************
OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS
At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank
investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the
market. Our Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) List has generated the
following results for investors:
* +31.8% average annual return since 1988 versus +11.8% for
S&P 500
* Outperformed S&P 500 in 17 of the last 18 years
* +43.8% total return from 2000 to 2002 - the worst
bear market in over 60 years.
* +18% in 2005
And just as importantly, the Zacks #5 Rank stocks (Strong
Sell) list has alerted investors as to which stocks to dump
from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses.
FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER
Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
* Broker Recommendation changes
* Earning Estimate revisions
* Earnings Announcements
* Zacks Rank changes
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these
changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000
investors who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio
Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not,
then sign up now to get this vital information sent to you
daily and improve your portfolio's performance. Did we mention
it's free? Get started now by going to
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2352
---------------------------------------------------------
We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Zacks.com Profit from the
Pros" and we look forward to visiting with you again tomorrow.
REFER-A-FRIEND
If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along
to a friend. Simply forward them the link below to sign up for
their own free subscription. If you're reading a forwarded
copy, sign up for your own, so you get this wealth of
information every week. Just click on the link below. THANKS!
http://at.zacks.com/?id=2338
Regards and Happy Investing,
Charles Rotblut, CFA
Senior Market Analyst
Zacks.com
p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros?
To find out how we will help you become a more
successful investor, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=2353
The Zacks Performance Rank performance is the total return
(price changes + dividends) of equal weighted portfolios,
consisting of those stocks with the indicated Zacks Rank,
assuming zero transaction costs and monthly rebalancing.
Simulated results do not represent actual trading and may not
reflect the impact that economic and market factors might have
had on decision-making if an adviser were actually managing a
client's money.
*The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the
prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip
stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index
assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect
advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an
index.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future
results. Investors should always research companies and
securities before making any investments. Nothing herein
should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell
any security.
To contact us by mail:
Zacks Investment Research
Attn: Profit from the Pros
111 N. Canal St., Suite 1101
Chicago, IL 60606
To unsubscribe from receiving "Zacks.com Profit from the Pros"
e-mail newsletter, click here http://at.zacks.com/?id=2340