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From Russia with Love
The Moscow times posted a drop of nearly 30% from the April '04 highs wuthin 3 months.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^MTMS&t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=b&c=
GE wave count.
GE is still in a corrective wave 2. The count could be an ascending triangle or a double zigzag. The previous 10 minute wave 4 of larger hourly wave 1 maxed out near $32.50, so there is still a chance to rally some more. The present hourly wave 2 has retraced 38.6%, so there is an equal chance of hourly wave 2 being done. Place stops at $31.75.
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=GE&data=Z30&date=070904&den=HIGH&evnt=off&a...
Assuming wave 2 has finished, next week GE has a minimum hourly wave 3 downside target of $29.00. This is a wave 3. The move could take an instant, or a more than a week.
GE wave count:
Little wave 2 up. $32.20 should be broken today. Wave 2 target $32.40-$32.50. That would make a zig-zag. This sets next week up for a wave 3 DOWN below $30.
Financials look horrible
LEH is well into its next leg down. There is only one day of support at $69. The bollinger bands are turned down hard like a waterfall. The price has tagged the lower band, but stayed just above it. The Stochastics are getting oversold.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=leh,uu[w,a]daoayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La12...
GS has spent very little time in wave 2 ($87 to $95), but the price has been well underthe 50 DMA. The bollinger bands are also turned down hard like a waterfall. The price is in the lower channel and trying to touch the lower b. band. The Stochastics are getting oversold.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=GS,uu[w,a]daoayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La12,...
Initial Jobless Claims:
That was quite a change in jobless claims this week. It could be the entire final wave 5 of the extended wave C. It's time to watch for the trend change again.
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/InitialJoblessChart.asp
MR_USA: Zoran
Thanks for the update by another leading e-wave counter. All I can say is the counts vary. The labeling varies too, but Zoran's may actually be easier to follow.
YHOO crash. waves and cycles.
I'm having difficulties counting elliott waves for YHOO. Gaps usually happen in wave three.
Do cycles get accelerated during gaps?
REIT - IYR
The I-share for REITs has some fibonacci numbers to consider.
The drop from the $110 level fell 21%.
Wave 2 has nearly recovered $16.18.
Wave 2 retracement is on its 55th calendar day.
Wave 1 and Wave 2 have taken a little more than 89 days.
The last three are a time and price convergence, so tomorrow has a strong chance of making a turn lower.
Bliss, Bond yields
Yield oversold = bonds overbought.
Now is the time to start focusing on the trend change. I've noticed the stochastics will go to overbought or oversold a couple of times before the trend finally reverses. The stochastics for the yield show the yield to be near oversold levels a second time during the consolidation. This time the conditions are deeply oversold.
Sometime higher highs, high lows happen on the stochastic during a rally, and lower highs, lower lows during a sell off. Sometimes a triangle will form on the stochastics, so some consolidation and then a final bond rally before the next major sell off begins is still possible.
FTSE is getting critical.
The FTSE is within 2.5 points of dropping below the May 17th lows. Coming under the May 17 lows would confirm the beginning of a multiweek wave 3 downtrend. The stochastics are oversold and the index is well below the lower bollinger band. Some consolidation with limited upside is due.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ftse,uu[w,a]dacayyay[db][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iLp14,3,3!...
10 yr Treasuries chart
The chart yield of the 10 yr Tsy is giving an oversold condition on the stochastics. The yield has been below the lower bollinger band the last couple of sessions. The b bands have widened the past couple of days. It looks like the yield could pull away from the lower band and rocket toward the upper band.
The MACD has shown nearly 7 weeks of downtrend momentum. One more week would be a fibonacci number. There is no indication of a trend reversal yet.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$tnx,uu[w,a]dacayyay[db][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La1...
Support is futile
The DOW, NAZ and SP500 have all broken below their 50 day moving averages. All of them have broken below their lower bollinger bands. All b bands are now widening. The stochastics are getting oversold, so we'll see how much bounce before the trounce there is.
EUROmarkets are hurting
DAX down 1.3%
FTSE is continues to fall in a post Bollinger band widening. FTSE is getting close to falling below its May '04 lows. This would very bearish.
DOW futures down 31 pts
This implies the lower bollinger band is penetrated and should start to open quickly. The implication is a strong move to the downside.
The 50 day moving average is also being broken as support. As pointed out easrlier, traders will be looking at the 50 MA
Initial Jobless Claims Increased
The Initial Jobless Claims numbers are getting very close to breaking the upper trendline resistance. The elliott wave pattern still has not confirmed the trend reversal to more downsizings, but there is an up-down-up consolidation sequence followed by a strong increase this past week. The pullbacks have not come close to testing the lows earlier this spring. Another couple weeks should be decisive.
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/InitialJoblessChart.asp
Airdale88: Valueline
That char looks like another little move up, or it's a truncated fifth since mid May. From the October '02 lows, the Valueline looks very motive. The DOW and SAP could make new tops with Valueline, but the NAZ shouldn't confirm.
Xe2dy: great article
It shows yet another e-wave count. That makes about 3 different bearish counts.
The cycle analysis was easy to follow and echos the wave count nicely.
Bearish on SAP 500
This is the 10 minute chart on the SAP 500. The prominent pattern is the lower highs and lower lows. It could be a couple of larger wave 1 wave 2, smaller wave 1 wave 2. This would be a sharp drop scenario. maybe a 3%?
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$INX&data=Z10&date=062904&den=MEDHI&evnt=of....
There is still come choppy trading into today's close.
KIM sold off 3.3% today.
That included a gap at the morning. The I-share (IYR) in real estate also dropped 2%
This is the most niceable area selling off hard in anticipation of higher interest rates. Even the treasuries rallied!
Airdale88- movie.
You bring up a good point about the "established player" even permitting such a film to be distributed through their channels.
The agrument I probably should have taken would have been. Enough change at all levels of the film industry has happened to allow a film outside the norm be distributed and desired to be viewed.
So if all it takes is a few people in high places to drive things, then it will only take a few people in high places to make or break the financial markets. This is the beginning of a liquidity trap.
SELL BONDS/ BUY YIELDS
For the 10 yr Tnote yield, the Bollinger Bands pinched sharply today, but they remain separated as much as they have for the last couple of weeks. The stochastics indicate a buy the yield/ sell the bond. This is the second time the trade signal has been issued. Usually the first one cries wolf in a consolidation, and the second one is real. The MACD ticked up, but is has not yet given a buy yield/sell bond signal. The signals are very close to the confirmation of a bond market sell off this summer.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$tnx,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La1...
Completely bearish: KIM
How many ending diagonals and truncations can you fin in this chart since the middle of June?
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=KIM&data=Z30&date=062804&den=HIGH&evnt=off&...
And here is a zoomed in view of today's chart:
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=KIM&data=Z05&date=062804&den=MEDHI&evnt=off...
HINT: I have to take my shoes off to count that high. :o)
SAP & DOW in multimonth wave 5?
Could be. The structure is in place. The DAX and FTSE have too much overlap to be motive, but leading diagonals have overlap.
I do remember this week two years ago the market were very volatile and lead to a massive summer sell off. The major tops are matching 4 years ago, and minor tops could be 2 years apart.
Socionomics: (F-9/11)
It would not surprise me if Prechter make a comment similar to this in the coming weeks in his ELLIOT WAVE THEORIST newsletter. Prechter did comment on the PASSION OF THE CHRIST earlier this year.
It's not the content of F-9/11 that has larger social implications, its the fact that a independent documentary film was the most popular this weekend. This signals a society that is in a major trend change. This is a break with the established players in the movie business. Financially, a break with established investing strategies will take place. Society will lose its bullishness and sell stocks/bonds.
The movie did not cause this trend change. It is just one of several signs of the degree and direction of society's mood.
Nikkei painted in a corner.
If hte Nikkei is in an ending diagonal, it should be very close to sharp reversal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^N225&t=5d
Russell 2000 Ready to Roll Over
The best short term elliott wave count for the RUT is a zig-zag wave 2 completed on Friday. This wave count is the clearest of the US market indexes.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$RUT,uu[w,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La1...
With all markets set to reverse, next week should be very interesting with the F-911 movie ticket results, Iraq hand over, and Greenspan rate increase. Judging by the bonds charts, anything Greenspan does will go punished in the bond market.
New Chart Pattern
I just discovered this one when reading the article about the US GPD percent Annualized Gain. The new pattern is called the "BIRD" for obvious reasons. The market is sending a clear signal where the US economy is going. No confirmation is needed on this one. ROFLMAO
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/040625/photos_bs/gdp_q104r_graphic
Short play: Bank of America (BAC)
BAC looks to have completed an ending diagonal from June 14, 2004. The Stochastics and MACD are giving sell signals too.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=BAC,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La12...
BAC also has completed a multimonth ending diagonal from December 2001, and high $30s. Two ending diagonal patterns is very bearish
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=bac&time=&freq=
Forecast: sharp sell off over lasting the next several months.
GO SHORT!!!
BlissBull: Initial Jobless Claims.
Bliss,
Initial Jobless Claims Chart is another indicator of investor psychology. It helps form a complete multi-variable investing landscape.
If businesses are increasing layoffs:
1.) "Smart Money" is acting as if they expect fewer sales in the future.
2.) Downsized people put selling pressure on stocks as they liquidate their 401K acct if they have one.
3.) Downsized people have to cut their spending since their cashflow has slowed/stop.
The economy is presently at a major turning point. So far the stock markets and initial jobless claims confirm each other. I'll back off reporting this trend when the turn is confirmed.
Initial Jobless Claims Chart:
The Initial Jobless Claims chart continues it's trend reversal. The number of initial claims are very close to breaking the upper trendline of resistance which is formed by the tops from April '03. From April '03, all advances in the jobless claims have reversed sharply to make new lows. These last 5-6 weeks the sharp rise has NOT been met with a sharp reverse to a new low. The best wave count is the Initial Jobless Claims is in a new uptrend and just waiting for confirmation. This uptrend will be more brutal than the one occurring after the Internet bubble popped.
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/InitialJoblessChart.asp
NAZ, DOW, SP500 Other TA.
The NAZ and SP500 touched the upper bollinger bands. The bands are starting to open. A big move is expected the next day or so. Stochastics indicate stocks are re-entering overbought without having an exhausting sell off. This is more pronounced in the SAP500
NAZ
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iLp14,3,3...
SAP500
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iLp14,3,3!L...
The DOW is weaker in the price did not touch the upper bollinger band today, but makes up for that by having and extremely overbought conditions indicated by the stochastics.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$indu,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iLp14,3,3!...
50-54 year cycle.
Those dates would coincide with the end of the Mayan calander, and possibly the hieroglyphics timeline in the Great Pyramids.
The Ancients knew something since the evidence distributed around the world have similar time convergence.
5 of 5 of 5 DOW at 11,600
That is still a possibility. I don't think The NAZ would confirm the DOW. That would in line with some ideas of the "risk spectrum" I've been toying with.
The general technical landscape presently points to multiple bubbles deflating. Unless money rotates out of those bubbles and into the bluechips, DOW 11,600 is a remote possibility.
Rally From Tuesday's Lows: Where are we?
Is this rally in its 3rd or 5th wave?
Is wave 3 or 5 extending?
Markets gotta give soon.
The stochastic has been completely overbought for the entire month of June.
I wonder if there were several wave 3 extensions. That HAD to be and ending diagonal that ended Friday. Now we're obviously in a much larger wave 5 from May lows.
FTSE looks like it is making an ending diagonal in its wave 2 zig-zag from May lows. Are the US and UK markets in sync? They are both politically aligned in Iraq.
Nikkei is probably doing the ending diagonal thing.
30 Minute INDU chart
Frank,
The wave 3 of 3 has some congestion right in the middle of the proposed move. Most of the side moves do occur at the ends of the waves which I would expect from caution at the beginning and exhaustion at the ends.
That drop marked the end of May bounce for the Dow.
If the ending diagonal wave count was what happened, then the sharp drop from the end of yesterday into today happened as wave behavior guidelines suggest.
The afternoon rally would be an intraday wave 2 of the next larger wave down for the Dow. Since the dow did not break the lows of the ending diagonal, their is no confirmation yet. Supporting a trend reversal would be a 200 point drop in the Dow tomorrow.
The NAZ and SAP are too swirly to count waves.
The most bearish count for the Dow is a wave 5e zigzag truncated in the zag. The reversal following that was sharp enough to break lower trendline of the proposed ending diagonal that began last week.
The SAP and NAZ just won't budge. The SAP started out behaving like the DOW and finished the day behaving like the NAZ. Neither SAP or NAZ is giving a directional signal.
Something is wrong with the market.
Nikkei just topped out.
See the clear five wave with extened 3rd wave from Friady into early monday trading?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^N225&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
This comes after an expanding triangle in a complex corrective bounce rally
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=%24nikk