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Bernanke asked to delay deposition in AIG case. Breaking news. No link sorry.
He didn't teach conventional constitutional law. Not as we might have taken it. He taught how to subvert it in the name of radical politics. Ask anyone who took his class. That doesn't mean that he doesn't know what the constitution says is illegal. Of course he does. And that document should indeed protect us. I don't even think he will want to or need to try to subvert it in this case to het what he wants. He wants gvt backstop and 30 yr.
Famous "Rule of 3" here? Most jokes have something happening the same way twice, then the punchline is that the 3rd time is different. Are those who are trying to control this ticker playing a punchline on us? No run after the 3rd positive earnings report? Or are we just going to see it run in a few days, which would match how the 2nd run started? If someone was manipulating a ticker, it would make sense to pull the rug out on the 3rd iteration.
I agree with article. But I'm long bc I don't think politically right now there's a chance DC will pass a law that gets gvt out of housing. And I know the 30 yr mortgage is considered to be another "3rd rail" , or the "holy grail" as congressman Garett put it yesterday on Kudlow radio show. So they won't dare get rid of it. Remember when Bush got re-elected, had tons of "political capita, and started his 2nd term trying to reform social security? Oops! What happened? He ran straight into the corrupt and entrenched complex of interests that feed off of gvt graft and rob us people. And he couldn't get anywhere on that effort. Same will happen if anyone tries to get gvt out of this business of housing. I think it's too bad bc markets will fix more problems than gvt will, and it's too bad that our society is kinda conditioned to think the 30 yr is some sort of "right" or something. I like the 30 yr dont get me wrong. I'm glad it's there but I don't think the market would be completely unable to come up with solutions in its absence. Anyway, I'm not emotionally invested in that detail and I'm glad most people can afford houses with 30 yrs as we know them. But what i think doesn't matter bc it's a safe bet that DC will never get gvt out of housing. And fnma is just as good a system, in that case, as any they'll come up with, as ling as they tighten up its operations and shrink its portfolio, etc. tweak it. So i'm betting contrary to what i personally would do if I were in charge. Fun, eh?
Thats some socialist dribble for sure! In the end the author advocates just keeping the GSEs nationalized! Yeah, let's just abandon basic market principles and let the gvt control a 5th of out economy. That's sure to keep us stable and efficient (huge sarcasm). Oh wait, this nation basically already did that with obamacare.
It was hard to sell during the dump, remember? I had some shares in the 70-80 cents range and low $1 dollar range, but I also added on the way up a bit during the run. Then the dump hit, and no one I know was able to sell. That was such a quickly falling knife! And there was something funny going on whereby retail (most of the cases I've heard or know of) simply couldn't get their sell orders filled. They watched as the horror continued. I'm up on some shares, down on others. I should be ok with a modest run. I averaged down a bit since then but I probably didn't have to. We'll see. But that dump was something else. As fast as I've ever seen.
Curious- who here is willing to hold until potentially 2017? I probably would if there were enough consistent signs between now and then that my commons wouldn't be screwed.
Agreed that we're more likely than not to be ok ultimately. I especially find the comparison to the sallie mae wind down to be informative and positive for us. Shareholders were ok in that one. And following that same path would be the least messy of all options, perhaps. So, we know politicians will screw it up a lot, whatever they come up with, but I still think it's slightly more likely than not that shareholders will be ok. Unless...if nothing is done by elections and we end up with a supermajority dem party, one party rule again, they can ram any crazy scheme they want down our throats again. All bets would be off in that scenario. But I think they would lean towards keeping fnma fmcc around in that case anyway.
"Reform" can indeed mean eliminate, especially considering the vast liberties politicians take with language and words. Some here posted dictionary definitions of "reform", some of which do not decisively rule out interpreting it as "eliminate". In the process of "reforming" housing policy, DC could eliminate the GSEs, privatize them, just tweak them, or any number of other possibilities. Same goes for "reforming" the GSEs themselves. Now, I DO think their use of the word "reform" makes it likelier that they will not eliminate the GSEs, but I can't rule that out. They're politicians, remember? Some of them take liberty with the word "is"! And this prez is the best expert on Alinsky tactics there's ever been. Part of those tactics deal very specifically with language. So you just never know until a bill emerges from House and Senate conference. On language, a brief recent example of Alinksy tactics was when some Dem spokes-mouth recently publicly blamed the Tea Party for being abused by the IRS! What? the IRA illegally targeted a political group, and the group is to blame? Well, they simply Blame the victim, and just attempt to confuse the public as much as possible, and they usually get away with it. It's an old tactic, perfected by Alisnky's followers. So, language, to a politician, is just another tool with which to steal from the people. Let's hope that in this case, "reform" just simply means reform and nothing else. But I only mention all of that so as to keep the risk assessment we all are engaged in honest. It's still a political ticker and thus speculative.
I'm just sayin- if they wound down sallie by basically taking away its gvt sponsorship, and shareholders were ok in the end, and even saw their shares appreciate in value, then to me this is good news! It means that - if there is that similar legality I mentioned - then that is our path to not getting screwed. Plus, if DC does want to unwind GSEs, and its politically a popular idea, it might be easiest for them to just follow the sallie model legally, and get the whole thing over with so they can all claim they're heros without slogging through the political mess they are looking at right now.
But legally, it might be a better comparison than we think. Sure, sallie Mae didn't deal with a sector of our econ as huge as housing is. Education loans are not a small thing. But regardless, it's (hopefully) the law that matters here, not the size of the sector we're talking about. If the 3 GSEs, sallie, fannie, freddie, were structured similarly (similar gvt sponsorship), then the law for how to wind them down should be very similar if not identical.
Kudlow with congressman Garrett: was general overview of situation with some details on how GSEs work and how the PATH bill would work and what the prez has proposed, which is nothing specific. But Garrett said interestingly that Whenever housing is discussed in DC, everyone thinks the 30 yr is like the holy grail, and they all want to protect it. He said that what BO proposed included keeping the 30 yr and backing it with gvt. Essentially he said it's same as what we have now. At some point kudlow said, referring to the GSEs, "ok so that'd be a more serious privatization". But it wasn't clear if he really meant fnma or the gop bill itself. Garrett said that he's travelled everywhere talking to private lenders and asked them what would it take to get them back into the mortgage lending biz. They replied - just get the gvt out of it and we'll jump back in.
He said we'd still have the FHA under gop bill, and it would be reformed down. Said the fed monetary policy is still there, and other mechanisms are still there to help and service lower income borrowers. Therefor we don't necessarily need the GSEs. He also talked about winding UP the private sector as they would wind down the GSEs, at a rate of 15% of their portfolio per year.
So i'm guessing the gop bill won't pass (garrett said they've been trying to pass this idea of getting gvt out for ten yrs now!), and the FMIC bill won't pass as it is. I think there will be such a wide gulf between the house and senate reform bills that the end result will be a new bill we know nothing about right now. However they wind down GSEs, if they do, we need to hope commons won't be screwed. Courts and net zero might be our best hope there, over hoping the politicians do the right thing.
On kudlow radio show now: fnma wind down?
Says prez was very ambiguous. Just starting. Guest is congressman garrett from nj
Wait this can't be true bc prez campaigned on "restoring America's image abroad", Remember? So, since he's the messiah and all, I think the entire world must respect him. Also, he said he would stop the ocean waters from rising. Or at least that's what his teleprompter said.
Oh crap more bad PR for fnma? This will not help us get our run! Man, it just appears that there's a major major full-on push by the big $ players to keep fnma pps down! In doing so They've employed so far every pseudo news hack writer you can think of, bloomberg, cnbc, msnbc, congressmen, and even the prez himself! Are they going to succeed in making their goal of shuttering the GSEs into the next big public media water-cooler discussion? Are we standing in front of a juggernaut here hoping it wont run us over? Gvt does what it wants, when it wants, often regardless of the legality of it. Another week of tight range MM controlled 2 penny movement in pps for 3 straight hours every day? I'm patient enough for that but it's gonna be rough if we keep seeing this steady dose of negative PR / "news" over the next few days.
Watt and prez both have used racism allegations to further their political goals. From reading that article, it's reasonable to guess that once Watt is confirmed, the race angle will be played in order to get legislation that requires banks to lend to disadvantaged neighborhoods again. In order to do that, gvt backstopping would be necessary. THAT is why they'd be dumb to dismantle the GSEs. If they want the result of encouraging or mandating mortgages be given in riskier locations, then the last thing the gvt should want to do is shut down the GSEs. It would be easiest to just use the same regulatory power they used before to mandate lending to riskier areas. Why reinvent the wheel and make a brand new agency FMIC? Especially when there are major lawsuits in the way of that path?
Eod 442k bids@ 1.50 & no sales?
For the last few mins today there was a total of approx 442k shares on the bid at 1.50, and a very small number compared to that on the bid at 1.51. Yet NO sales at 1.51 went through! Are they trying to tell us that of the $660k on the bid at 1.50, NONE of them were willing to pay 1.51 to get in before the weekend?
The ability they have to keep this thing is this super tight range is amazing. And it's very clearly intentional. Every day is the same shape. There is not the beautiful semi randomness that most charts for other stocks show. They shut down what appeared to be a run in the making just before the closing bell!
Some are saying Treasury insisted GSEs not use DTA. So that, plus prez's run-stopping speech just show that gvt might not want fnma to hit net zero and get a lot of publicity. Their plans for it might be other than what we here hope.
Good points. I'd add that it's not like "they" created those tv shows to distract us so their currency game can continue. But the fact that many people do become media-obsessed zombies is perhaps a byproduct of schools not teaching things like basic economics. There's no direct causation there but certainly our education system does generally help enable to continuation of the fraud of our central banking system. Look at those school tests from 100 years ago you see online. College grads today couldn't answer 75% of the questions on 8th grade tests from 1912! There was one posted recently somewhere online from 1919 i think. Anyway, I think the internet itself is perhaps something that ultimately might help bring our currency back under control of the people.
I've heard. Our tax system is an "overlay", of sorts, on top of our "real" life or our individual sovereignty, as they say. I'd never test it! But when you really look into it, it's incredible. The layers and layers of law that constitute the income tax and irs apparently, according to some legal experts, are disconnected from certain bedrock common law principles, upon which our entire legal code is based. So there are some fascinating arguments that explain why it is not even valid or mandatory! Youtube has videos of people challenging it. In one, the guy is talking to the IRS, trying to discharge his debt. They stonewall him for a long time as he is trying to cite his individual sovereignty as his reason for not having to pay, until finally he asks the woman if she even knows what he's talking about. She finally says quietly, "yes i know what you're talking about." And starts telling him exactly what he needs to write and to whom he needs to send his letter, in order to do it! Could be a hoax but it's fascinating. Some people are in jail for having tried the same thing. So don't risk it! But yes this is deep stuff. Apparently legally your tax-paying entity is not YOU. You are you. But there is a taxable "corporation" established in your same name when you are born. You can, some say, even BORROW money against the future productivity of your taxable entity. This is wild stuff but I've learned enough to keep an open mind about such crazy sounding stuff. The more you research the history of central banks, the wilder it gets. I'd never put it past them to have established a tax system as described above. But I can't say I'm by any means an expert on that specific story! Fun stuff. But we need to start realizing how, well...FAKE our world is in some ways. Looking into central banking is like seeing that some things you just accepted as fact are really just fake constructs. Just like the price action on tickers like fnma! Boy we are really digressing here aren't we?
Anything relevant from prez's press conference today?
I've found another like me! Thanks for posting that crucial info. As I've posted before, this is one of my favorite topics. Especially in a historical context, it's something people need to know about. The Founders of the U.S. were DIRECT victims of the very same central banking system that we have now. The Founders deliberately and specifically wrote into the Constitution that ONLY CONGRESS has the power to control our currency / monetary policy. As bad as they are, they are elected and we can vote them out. Thus the currency was supposed to remain exclusively in the hands of the peoples' representatives. The Founders' MAIN GOAL, above any of those reasons we were told in grade school, was to establish a nation free of central banking, bc they knew how central banks (as the Bank of England was) only result in putting their nations into generationally crippling debt. But immediately after the U.S. defeated England and was independent, the central bank interests began fighting to take over the currency of the new nation. Our American history's main events almost all revolve around that ongoing fight since then. We have alternated a few times between citizen-controlled currency and central bank-controlled currency. If you plot out those alternations and follow the details of them, you will see that they "coincide" with our major events; wars, recessions, civil war, depressions, trade wars, annexations, elections, business cycles, constitutional amendments, the establishment of the IRS and income tax, and even "suddenly-ending-presidencies", for lack of a better word. The central bankers and their destruction of our dollar (to their advantage) is the MAIN reason most families require two incomes now to survive. Over time, their inflation-inducing racket has caused that social condition. They are the enabler of ridiculous gvt spending, which hurts all of us.
That's the plainest truth. Fnma is still a speculative ticker because of exactly what you said, when you boil it down. Yes There's a chance they won't be able to achieve the exact extent of corruption they're trying to achieve with GSE reform, etc. The courts might just save shareholders here. But no one should think anything other than: DC and its cronies is a cruel, brutal, reeking pit of the purest corruption, and it does not have your interest in mind unless you are connected. It can / will / does try to rob you at every turn, with every breathe they take, every stroke of a pen and every back room meeting that takes place, the goal is to rob the people. That is what the entire complex is designed to do.
Wrong. National debt including future liabilities: $86 Trillion
http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/a/SB10001424127887323353204578127374039087636?mg=reno64-wsj
And
http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=38718
See, gvt does have to use GAAP for accounting, and thus in some cases does not report its future liabilities the way any company would legally have to. We are much more screwed than media reports. Some estimates put the figure up to $100 T. And if you include other kinds of debt, it could go as high as $200 T. No economist who recognizes even the $86T figure has ever said there is any possible way to ever pay off our debt. It's unrealistic. The ONLY thing that keeps us going is that we are the reserve currency for the world. Protecting that status is the real reason for our recent wars, because the nations we fought had threatened to sell oil in Euros or gold, not the U.S. dollar (Iraq had, Lybia had, Iran has). From wsj:
"The actual liabilities of the federal government—including Social Security, Medicare, and federal employees' future retirement benefits—already exceed $86.8 trillion, or 550% of GDP. For the year ending Dec. 31, 2011, the annual accrued expense of Medicare and Social Security was $7 trillion. Nothing like that figure is used in calculating the deficit. In reality, the reported budget deficit is less than one-fifth of the more accurate figure.
Why haven't Americans heard about the titanic $86.8 trillion liability from these programs? One reason: The actual figures do not appear in black and white on any balance sheet. But it is possible to discover them. Included in the annual Medicare Trustees' report are separate actuarial estimates of the unfunded liability for Medicare Part A (the hospital portion), Part B (medical insurance) and Part D (prescription drug coverage).
As of the most recent Trustees' report in April, the net present value of the unfunded liability of Medicare was $42.8 trillion. The comparable balance sheet liability for Social Security is $20.5 trillion."
Analysis from 2011. Desired elimination goes way back. This is a fairly interesting read if you wanna see what the thinking about the GSEs was amongst policy experts before they became profitable again in 2012. It just shows that the gvt's desire to replace the GSEs does indeed go way back, and has had bipartisan support (not exclusively though) for a long time. Section C seems relevant to today, with all the various proposals seeming to take something from it. I hope gvt wont be able to pass reform before net zero and that the lawsuits stop them from dissolving the GSEs.
http://www.bu.edu/law/central/jd/organizations/journals/banking/archives/documents/volume31/RegulatoryFutureOfFannieMae-FreddieMac.pdf
Why didnt mr 800k buy commons, though?
I do think there's still a risk that gvt will want / try to dissolve GSEs. Question is - can they do it before net Zero pressure and lawsuits get to them?
That author consulted hedgies on lawsuit. He's amazingly insightful. He did a long form interview / speech on the same topic at the hoover institution, which you can find on soundcloud.com
And he appeared on the john batchelor radio show within a week of that article you linked to. Just excellent information, particularly when he mentions prior court cases and precedents in the speech on soundcloud. Fascinating stuff that only clarifies for us how totally, brutally thieving and corrupt our gvt is.
The warrants are only redeemable if GSEs can't repay. They were only collateral. As far as I know, with the GSEs making profits and operating with no threat of bankruptcy, the gvt can't just go and redeem its warrants for common stock and then sell them on open market. If i'm wrong on that please share links. But this has been shown a few times on this board with excellent DD by people like Obit. And I'm convinced it is true until I see proof otherwise.
Media Hold news back for BO? Never happens.
Benghazi
Woods Fund
Fast and Furious
Rezko
Alynski
Acorn
Ruling increasingly by executive order
Defying constitution by making appointments while congress is in session......ok i'll cut it off there but the list could fill this entire board's bandwidth! If the media doesn't report it, it's like it never happened, and he ends up getting re elected! Simple.
Ticks me off to, this. Takes PR to move any opinion on a national scale. FNMA management has no interest in mounting a PR campaign to tout its success and to encourage ppl to encourage the gvt to keep it around. So much overlap and incestuous relationships in DC means that a pseudo public company like FNMA can't risk pissing off too many powerful ppl in DC. If it's in the interest of power ppl fnma will stay and commons will be ok. In the meantime, fnma could do a LOT to help its own cause if it wanted! But it can't risk ticking off gvt. Think, fnma itself could DEFEND itself! Could send its own pundits to all the news talk places, could go on Leno, and explain how fnma was screwed by gvt and banks. But the. Fnma would be crushed by those entities! It's really too bad. It'd be nice to have the real story be understood by the masses, but they can't even understand how their own money works, what their currency really is, or how their taxes are being wasted. We can't expect them to care about the fate of some alphabet gvt agency that gives them a mortgage, which is what most ppl think fnma is. As long as the news tells them some other alphabet agency (hypothetically the FMIC) will now give them their mortgages, they're at ease and are moving on to American Idol.
Added 1.56s. Powder & discipline shot! I'd been holding a small amount of powder for a long time. Gonna hopefully flip the shares I just bought when time is right. The rest I'm holding.
Just think how different things would be if commons hadn't been robbed of their voting power. Some here complain we don't hear often enough from management. Well, they don't have to communicate to commons anymore! So we don't hear from them.
Any chance we get another verbal / written bombshell dropped on the FNMA news world over the next few days? Or do you think big $ will stop that part of their manipulation strategy and let us breathe for a few days?
Starting its daily range now? Looks the same as every day recently except for larger volume and larger swing. I'm starting to think that volume alone determines the size of the swing on this ticker, but the overall shape of the pps trend is determined by algos perhaps. Looks like it's settling in for the rest of the day now like it always has been lately, only a little higher.
You mean hard to sell after dump? Or you mean that it'll be hard to get filled over the next couple of weeks? I don't anticipate fill problems until the drop, myself. I assume you meant we won't WANT to sell in a few weeks if we don't take profits on way up and Get caught in the dump.
I'm long but very tempted to try to flip the large uptrend if there is one.
NT, Reasonable, we like seeing your exit calls! Keep 'em coming during this run if you can. All of your posts about predicting / reading fnma charts and what is likely to happen have been interesting to read. If you sense a dump coming, feel free to let the board know if you've got the time.
We all make our own moves but it's nice to read what others are doing, especially when those others have been helpful before.
WB said if commons lose treasury loses? Sounds good to me!
But he also said commons are "An option" at this point. Did he mean an option whether to screw commons or not?
The right word by Ben in testimony could launch fnma for real. If he happens to say anything that could be interpreted as giving more credibility or hope to the lawsuits to end the aug 2012 amendment, then the market will react instantly perhaps, with a slew of buys.
Granted I'm not expecting him to do so intentionally, but it could happen unintentionally. Any word on whether and when his testimony will be viewable? They would't put it on Tv i bet. We might have to read some court transcripts during after market hrs that day.
1st run went 5 days. 2nd 11. 3rd? Will 3rd run last longer before dump? I'm counting from the first real pop in daily candle til the first dump. Not counting subsequent bounces. So, pps went up by a greater % in the 2nd run than it did in the first. So did volume. And the 2nd run lasted twice as long before the dump. Should we expect the 3rd run to last even lomger than the 2nd? T/A experts, what do you say?
Prez spoke favorably of Corker Warner too. Doesn't mean it will pass. But I think the prez will sign any reform bill that assures the 30 yr mortgage will remain available. That gives him political win. I don't think he cares what that might mean for shareholders one way or another, if anything he'd be happy to stiff shareholders. I think the battle for shareholders' interests will take place in congressional negotiations. They could technically still "reform" or "wind down" fnma in a way that screws the shareholders (commons are more vulnerable) or not, no mTter what the Prez says today. But it's good to at least see the language toning down a bit from "shutter" to "reform".
At May earnings, was there such negative news? May report was on May 8 or 9 right? I don't recall but were there any speeches by politicians days before earnings? Was there a flurry of negative news articles? Pps was kept down around earnings and after. Then it went up after a week or so. Maybe we're just seeing a repeat of the manipulation schedule just as the chart seems to be a repeat of May as well (so far at least).
No politician is "for the poor". It's a nice sentiment but it's only a fiction they use to get votes and distract people while they gain power and money by extracting as much wealth from all classes (including the poor) as possible, and hand it over to their donors and cronies. Best thing for the poor would be to increase their own freedom, not seduce them into dependency.