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Dudes, how long would it take to drive that oil rig from western India to Block 2?
Brez
Thanks, I guess for once I contributed. Although I find the volumes of posts on the very improbable indictement of SEO so interesting..............
Brez
MZ Further,
The article below, gives a possible reason why ONGC would do it.
Article from News Insight 17 Aug, 2006.
In wrong hands
Despite making huge profits, ONGC is in the dumps.
"In November this year, minister Aiyer finally decided to hold the bull by the horns, saying that ONGC was going to dump its exploration arrangement with Transocean and Dolphin Drilling, and team up with Statoil of Norway, which has deep-sea exploration experience. The petroleum ministry also leaked that ONGC was avoiding seeking external help despite its disastrous exploration record at sea.
It is an open secret at ONGC that for its size and resources, it has one of the worst exploration systems. Deep-sea exploration is quite in another plane, although ONGC is being increasingly accused of drilling at the wrong locations, but even its on-shore and off-shore record, leaving aside the Bombay-High discovery in the Seventies, and Western offshore oil and gas finds in the Nineties, is terrible, and under Raha, it has gotten worse.
All major Western oil companies follow a three-tier system of exploration, there being a lower, middle and upper level of geoscientists, made up into three or four teams for an area to be surveyed, and their independent findings are further scrutinised by a two-member team, in turn headed by the team leader, whose exploration decision is final. In ONGC, either the local manager decides where to drill, or a survey team with the most clout with superiors gets its way on drilling.
The results of this hopeless system, which Raha with all his managerial acumen has not been able to change, is there for all to see. While an exploration ratio of 1:2 is considered decent by industry standards, drill one and get one as they say, ONGC fluctuates between 1:4 and 1:5 for on-shore, and 1:10 and worse for off-shore. ONGC paid $336,906 a day to the Transocean drill ship Discover Seven Seas and $361,762 to Dolphin Drilling’s Belford Dolphin without recovering a drop of oil."
http://www.indiareacts.com/archivedebates/nat2.asp?recno=1047&ctg=Business
Someone posted that India was showing interest in the GOG, anyone with experience can pipe in and quantify a possibility of India early release or lending for future favours the Belford Dolphin to the Chinese, prior to Anardako getting the rig?
"The deepwater drill ship Belford Dolphin continued operations under a
three-year drilling contract with ONGC in India, expiring early 2007.
In September 2005, a contract was secured with Anadarko Petroleum
Corporation for three years. The new contract will follow in direct
continuation from the present Belford Dolphin contract with ONGC."
http://www.bors24.no/bors24.no/site/news/news_detail.page?magic=(cc%20(ids%20urn:newsml:six.se:20060...
Yep, or you can accumulate slowly....and if it pops before April 07...well that's just a treat!
Brez
Umbra,
I like your posts, please don't get drawn down into a "toe-to-toe" battle. Its not worth it and really lowers the quality of the posts.
May I recommend you say your piece once and leave it at that. By the way, I don't know what you are answering to, since I have that poster on ignore.
Cheers
Brez
Or they can definatelly pay a premium for early use (sub-let) which may releave Anar.. from early cost. Anar.. gets the rig in early 07, They can drill one or two wells in 3-4 months and "lend" the rig to neighbours?
They could try to withold info, just like CVX, in hopes of buying more interest in other blocks. But by now I believe that the players that wanted to sell, did.
Brez
OT:Art,
The problem with an alias that has proven to have a lack of integrity or has demonstrated a behaviour unbecoming is that it can't ever be trusted again.
Even if the initial M is posting again, the uninformed reader will not be able to decipher between the real info and the manipulation message. Play with fire, you get burned. Readers beware.
Cheers
Brez
Bobwill9, I guess some look at boards for friendship, companionship? But some do go way overboard by overanalyzing the most far fetch or inconsequential event.
It would be great if posters, such as Electrik, could post a little more about general conversation pieces (about ERHE) that he was fortunate enought to be part of over a beer! These opinions are of great value to us.
I generally don't have much to offer, but I do offer this, my gratitude to those that do.
Cheers
Brez
Sidewinder,
I believe the board is quiet because there is nothing to report! Yes Ivillage is a site for women issues?
Cheers
Brez
Electick,
Like I said before, just tell me when you sell!!
Brez
All is quiet on the Mac front!
Brez
aah!
Thanks, I need a good cmf!
Brez
Dude, I am not a chartist, but I've been told that when things tend to trade tightly for at least 4 weeks (with low volumes) that stocks tend (higher chance?) of climbing?
What does this chart tell you?
Brez
Dude, just tell me when you sell!!!
Brez
Thanks Spec, I'll look it up!
Brez
Condor I personally like the work that Dadd is doing. You are free to go somewhere else if your ideas need an audience.
respectfully yours
Brez
Oilphant, could you give us initials. This would appease skeptics. Then again, this may not be a fair questions since you may not know the initials. Only you know.
cheers
Brez
August 9th or September 8th (my birthday)?
Brez
Mz, please don't forget, M was caught by many posters, of being 2 or more posters using the same alias. It was not just a dollar prediction that made him nose dive into the terra ferma!! Please don't forget that.
Brez
Nice chart! Where were you a year ago when I needed tips!LOL
Brez
You bet ya! I was making light of it!
Brez
To the board,
The problem with the readers towards oilphant is that they use his post to either credit or discredit him.
My take on oilphant is very simple; he could be close to the action, therefore hears lots of different course of actions that are being taken. Many early course of actions are usually weeded out by parties or supervisors. This leaves more plausible course of action (COA) on the table. Now, here come Oilphant, somehow he gets words of these COAs and releases a cryptic (now better) message. He could be the sandwich guy and overhears things or he could be the #2 guy in the board meeting, it doesn't matter. But what we, probably have, is a bunch of, what I call, non-filtered COAs or information which gives us indication on how management may think, but not neccessarily the way they may go. Many of these COA will never see the light of day. If someone was right everytime, he would be very close to the decision makers and therefore he would be carying out illegal activities by releasing info. It is highly improbable that someone of such caliber would do that. Therefore Oilphant could be close, but not close enough to be able to filter out the gold from the chaff.
Others on this board also have sources, these sources sometimes prove more accurate, why? Simple, they do not have access to un-filtered COAs. Therefore by the time a friend of a friend talks to them, their particular little bit of news is more probable.
Therefore in this information warfare (we are in the trenches!) think of oilphant, AA, BB, Spec, Mark whomever present a "source" as a timeline. Oilphants post gives us a potential direction over time, others post with information that can now be linked (or not) with other posters to give us a probable direction to complete a timeline.
In short, I agree with you BB, listen to all would be prophets (until he forgets he owns a Mac!) is cheap, you just never know.
All IMHO
Brez
Cheers, Brez**
Ts,
If you are talking about the Excell spreadsheet that I had posted the file name was ERHE value.xls. You can do a search on your hard drive for it. If it wasn't, sorry to bothered you.
Cheers
Brez
OT: To the person who wrote me a pm.
I do not possess anymore knowledge about ERHE other than what I post. I do not deal with any oil issues in my proffessional life therefore I am not "in the know"! My only relation with oil is that I live in Northern Alberta and my realestate value is going up due to the sands, and that I am not allowed to fly supersonic over oil camps!! My thoughts are based on what would make business sense to me.
Cheers
Brez
Dig brother, it is very interesting, some of the oil veterans on this board can tell me (us) if companies do work in that fashion? It is logical that companies would share. It is probably very lucrative for the first company to "sub-rent" the drill rig to other customers that are very aggressive, such as synopec! But for us, we have rights in all current blocks (except 1, give and take a straddle!) so its good news. If their is a God, please, bring it on!!!
I've got to show some profit soon, my wife is sure to wonder some day where all those dollars went too!!!LOL
Cheers
Brez
OT: Thanks Jim, got it already. I also own AXC shares.
Brez
I did my bit! bought a measly 4K (4110 to be precise!!)@.42
Brez
Mark,
What if.....the deals from Oily's post, actually referred to all the companies sharing the cost (plus premium to the original contrator) of that rig which is available in early 07.
what if.... they all realize that the extend of the oil fields straddles many blocks therefore to prove the extend they must drill in all the blocks....hence the cooperation drill deal.
what if.... for the next few years the drill ship went from block to bloc to assess reserves .... for all blocks.
If those what ifs could occur..... our ship would have sailed in.
I'll go and paint my garage door now!
Brez
PS. How long has your contact known about the early 07 drill? 1/08/06?
In my work it is very difficult to get answers or even ask questions on phones, internet etc.
Boy do I miss just talking over a beer!!!
Brez
Thanks Oilphant,
a, b, c, d, e, f, g, or h?
Brez
Good Morning Claudealain, how was "La Promenade des Anglais"?
Brez
Thanks, again because of his large amount of shares, would he not be required to make a disclosure on his intent on selling prior to selling?
Brez
There you go! Learn something new everyday! Being a greater than 5% holder, he would still need to disclose the intent on selling, n'est-ce pas?
Brez
Maestro, perhaps I don't understand how shares are privately sold. But, I believe that SEO cannot sell his shares to anyone he wishes to. He would sell his shares to the open market just like you and I. Therefore a company would offer X dollars per ERHE shares for up to 51% of the available shares or 360M ish shares for them to have control of the company. If SEO had advance notice of this deal he (and his friends to make up 51%) could slowly sell his(their) shares over many months at a very slow rate so as to not be noticed and not cause a surge in volume price. Then get the remainder under the table in cash. This is unlikely since anyone owning more then 5% must disclose their sales.
Either way, SEO must have 51% of shares to make decisions outright (ei without votes). This would be done in an internal board meeting with the 51% holders (SEO and Friends/familly). Minutes of the result of the meeting would have to be presented to the remainder of share holders. Again doubtfull, that SEO would grab the 51% club members and do it. If he does, higher money that much quicker I guess!
Brez
Got it! You are correct, and I believe the market will try to sell as high as the number but when share holders have to vote (which is our case) the market will not get to that price (very close though!) in fear that the share holders refuse.
For instance we are offered a Swap valued at .55 per share. Myself, Spec 29 and others would be in the front row screaming F--- NO! But if an offer of $10 was on the table, myself, Spec 29 and others would be drinking martinis in the back row High 5'n each other, you are right, the market would guess that this would go through and the price would be at exactly that.
Spec 29,
Thanks I am sifting through the site. 3 post left, I am minimizing!
Brez
amj,
I don't fully understand you post, but here is what I understand on buy-in/out mergers.
Anything goes.
For example:
Company B is being bought out by Company A. An announcement can be release that could sound like this;
" Reuters 1/08/06 -- Company A today announced its intend on buyin out Company B in a share swap deal valued at $7B US. This buyout will be effective Sep of 06 upon acceptance of Company A shareholder at a meeting that will be held prior to deadline. This deal represent a great opportunity for ....bla bla bla...."
brez
Oilphant, without revealing how you come accross your information, would you say that the sudden increase in SP or events that will occur on or about the 1/8/06 to be due to;
a) Announcement of a buy in
b) Announcement of a buy out
c) Release of factual results from OBO 1
d) Release of factual results from OBO x
e) Announcement of Oil rigs being available within the next few month for a block that ERHE is in
f) A share swap between ERHE and a Chinese company
g) A share swap between ERHE and an American company
h) None of the above.
Just post a letter brother!
Brez
Well done Oilphant! You are really making progress on the less cryptic posting. I am proud of you.
But my experience tells me that one should not put the nose of the aircraft to low when flying in cloudy conditions, you may never recover in time to miss the ground!
Brez