LPIH
-- Margins Q4 vs Q309

2008 Q4 net margins were 6%, 2009 Q4 net margins were 5%. This sounds like it's a seasonal thing?

-- Income Changing between Friday & Monday

On friday they announced $20.9 in 2010 but the astrix said there was a $14 million non-cash charge so, in reality $34.9 in net income. GAAP foists this charge upon foreign companies working with warrants in different dominations than dollars. The company is following through with the requirement.

-- Change in expected share count

I agree this was an anomoly.

------------------------------

Conclusion

A lot of people lost money and are understandably angry, however, the only grievance I can see that sticks is the dilution as far as I can see.

rich

Thanks Trader. Obv, I hate it when people know more than me. Course I'm used to that by now

In April the pps was $1 and since then it's pancaked... Wonder if that delayed plans? Or if that big seller was the company?

Strange through since they only detail $5 million spending and they have $10 million in cash in March, so you'd expect $14 million by August.

You've got to ask the question why not use cash or if you are using the cash on other expansion projects then detail them as well.

Hmm... has anyone contacted them about this? I suspect they are in the quiet zone now... Or I hope they will be!

rich

Is the dilution a hunch? Or is there a link?

I can't see any filings so your guessing they sold a few shares?

Hmm, they've had 30 Million shares through fiscal 08 and 09.. They had 32 Million at some point in fiscal 07. They have cash in the bank and they pay the director $5 a year or something

Nothing about expansion I can see, but that wouldn't surprise me in the least.

rich

Asensio has a position on a stock based on a rational. One point of his rational has been removed.

Further, he made a point against a company without looking at the reverse side of it. So, either he doesn't know that Chinese companies understate revenues or he knows and doesn't want to tell other people.

What I do notice about the stock is that it's becalmed and with so many other stocks out there why take a punt? But in a few months time will that still be the case? hmm... it's one to revisit.

rich

"I think if they file for an extension like they did in the past already the stock most likely has a little sell off or at least a retracement."

Yup, I think management filing risk is the biggest threat to the stock.

Currently they have 35 cents a share cash.. take 25 cents off the 71 cent price - to leave 10 cents working capital and divide the remaining PPS (46 cents) by earnings (21 cents) you end up with P/E of around 2.

Really, how bad are the earnings going to be to justify making 1/5 the earnings next year than this year? Were talking catalcalismic nosedive in revenues or outright fraud to take it down.

rich

CCTR a no no Thanks CSP and Joe

CSKI - I was emailing someone about the disparity of CSKI's sales verus their distributors sales. I'm hoping he might respond himself but you can see from the previous reading material that Chinese book keeping is decidedly dodgy. Should we be trusting of CSKI book keeping over wholey Chinese company?

My feeling would be yes. Anyone got any comments?

rich

Another View: Tunneling to True Profit in China

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/17/another-view-shanghai-ed-profits/?em

Has anyone looked at CCTR? Scam?

Thought I would ask before adding it to todo list but wondered if could pick your brains first... It seems to issue a PR every day. That's not a good sign is it? Looks like 10 times share count in year... that's not good either

It's dogey isn't it?

rich

Hello LMB I'm in CDBT still,

Yep, I'm very bullish on all things Chinese Agriculture... the subsides farmer are getting are immense, about twice they were getting last year, see slide 43 in link, I'm holding through the results - it's boom time for farming.

http://www.johndeere.com/en_US/ir/media/pdf/financialdata/reports/2009/2009_thirdquarter_confcallslides.pdf

The Chinese Governement needs to make them more productive and make living in countryside more attractive to reduce the streaming of people to the cities.....

Boom times are here to stay for a little while longer in rural China I feel

rich

TSTC I'm in awe of the receivables... 2008 Revenues 35 Million, and 60 Million Receivables. Isn't that almost 2 years? Wow. Obv, their clients are good for the money but, wow.

In the 10-K, release March of this year, they claim it's common in the telecom industry and they are trying to put it right. In the latest 10-Q it's 70 Million.

hmmmm...

rich

Indeed, they are remarkably innept.. but I guess that's why I had the chance to buy it so cheap...

If they could just stop diluting and allow it to reach it's value and then start diluting... sigh...

In my imaginary world: I think every company board should have at least one good investor on it... so they can explain how the market would take things and how to get the best out of the market price, sigh.

rich

Marvellous news....

To confirm Subye = Online Membership Services in the 10-Q?

While the revenues are nice and they are growing I'm guessing the margins are high and have disporportiate affect on bottom line? They won't break down their sectors so we won't know until they split up business?

cheers

rich

Ah, didn't see that before I posted Could be even better...

rich

Hi Bradford, to clarify...

I'm trying to clarify as it's like following someone good at maths when they miss out a line of working and your left scraching head

Amortization of the mining rights you are getting from the cash flow? So, it's 2009 figure in the cash flow is $818,028?

Am I right in saying that the amortization is put as an expense in the cost of goods sold? So, we don't know the exact mistake they have made but it's in the region of, worse case scenario, a multiple of 2, say, of $818,028?

The net income you have taken from the 3 months ending June 30th 2009? 12,430,720.

Assuming you got it this way the amortization, in the cash flow, $818,028, was for the *six* months ending 2009, yep? Does that change anything?

So, assuming I'm right, using your method and my pessimism, you'd probably want to be talking about $400,000 expense and taking a pessimistic, bad case scenario, with a multiple of 2 of this. So $800,000 or around 6% (800,000 / 12,430,720) of net margins in play with a reasonable chance it could be better 3%?

Question... If I'm right about it affecting cost of goods sold why don't we use the revenues? Or is the net income a short cut way of working out it's not significant?

muchos cheers...

rich

Cheers atco eom

Thanks again Joe, that all makes sense.

Dumb for one province to set a tax...

cheers

rich

Cheers Joe, I'm confused, to confirm Currently they don't pay the tax but they might have to?

cheers

rich

China has a lock on many Rare earth minerals...

Wondering if there were any Chinese companies that could benefit from that? Either by gathering a resource or getting to use a scarce resource?

Just an idea....

rich

What happend about the province VAT tax? Do they get their 17% rebate?

Hmm.. should be more personable... Hmmm hello, hope your all doing well.

rich

Well, people make trading decisions and valuations decisions. I don't have any trading instincts - I will bow to better experience than me.

From a valuation perspective it did $1.73 in earnings in 2008. Ignore the coal price increases ( which are significant ), ignore any potential for increased volumes, 2009 earnings, or usage of cash, and based on 2008 estimates at P/E of 10 is $17.

I don't see why anyone would want to sell until the double digits of their choice.

You can easily make the case for $30. Does anyone know why 2008 Q1 was 85 cents and the rest of the year was 30 to 40 cents?

rich

Oh Hell, who am I kidding Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

8.0000 x 9.0000 What benefit does the market maker have by setting a 12% spread? Do they just want to stall the volume? Has the computer "gone to lunch" and can't be bothered to make any more sales?

cheers

rich

Not necessarily GeoBargain causing the volume as it was already 130K when they noted it as Geobargain (11.10).
Either there is a GeoBargain-gate leaks going on, umm this wouldn't be the first financial company that had leak problems, or they buy before they code it a bargain or they speed up research when they see unusaul volume?

Either way the horse was running before 11.10. Even the last two days were unusually high volumes.

rich

(I need to spend some time analyzing "if I have too much time on hands")

Yup

P/E < 5
Y/Y comparables good - (Memo Need to work out if it's from more volume??)
Coal prices rising but there contracts are to selling at 2 months ago prices - nice boost to net income

Additaionl Factors
- China could become a net importer of termal coal? Supply / Demand imbalanced
- All the PUDA millionaires are going to want the next PUDA.

How could I resist? 7% of portfolio. I started DD'ing over weekend so anyone know more throw it in.


rich

SGZH 52 Week High Vol 79K Current 130K eom

Receivables 34 Million - whereas revenue was 14 Million for the last quarter.... so is that taking 7 months ish to get their payments? Very Chinese. Course if they collected in 90 days they wouldn't need to get loans!

Everything else about the company, as far as I can see, is intreguing.

rich

Sleeps for the 20 minutes before open Probably enough.

I would mention that they announced a PR that they are going to the AMEX and had to, embarressingly, withdraw it until 10-K was released. Just saying that they might have done the slides before they did withdraw.

That said... in earlier interview he was talking about how it would be easier to do deals with prestiege of AMEX (no laughing in the back! It's all relative) so uplisting is going to happen. I don't think AMEX is going to be enough for him either. He won't be satisfied until full mainboard NYSE listing, IMO obv.

rich

CMTP, after much bullying, said that the numbers were conservative and that they were confident they would achieve the numbers. Throw in the fact that 2nd half of year is when most electronics are sold and I can't see how the share price won't appreciate.

If we put aside the management and say that the second half of the year revenues are going to be the same as last year then that's $1 in earnings. Given they are being conservative and have been beating last years numbers by > 100% it doesn't seem unreasonable.

No ranches in UK so I would be prepared to bet a vegetable plot.

rich

Hi CSP it looks a great story. They have first mover advantage ... I guess my main worry is that someone else moves in second and reduces those lovely margins. Even with my paranoia I can't see how anyone's going to lose money on this at 9x cents.

rich

Hello TraderFan... Well first time I posted my track I put a "?". I was hoping someone with more knowledge would step in, that's you I didn't know how the volume was calculated. So is a sale from the Seller to the MM and then the MM to the buyer (i.e. twice the volume)? Or was it straight from Seller to buyer? From your reply I'm guessing it's from Seller to buyer? Or 2.7 Million shares sold?

Yes?

cheers

rich

2.7 Million Volume since downtrend began. Or 1.35 Million Shares sold (by my caluclations).

Petrol prices in China - Economist.com

http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14462395

rich

SGZH and then I can see what you mean Cheers... EOM

Yeah, I saw that Joe. When people see something and they don't know the reason they create a narrative to fill things in for themselves.

If this a narrative or is there some reasoning for their view? As it stands it's a statement without any insite.

I would *really* like it to be the warrants but why is it that rather than the company selling some shares?

cheers

rich

Hey Joe,

I do find it strange that they are aggressively selling at $1. Wouldn't the warrant holders have got the shares at $1? If the seller had been more subtle and less time sensitive wasn't a price above $1 available.

Throwing it up there... Could it be the company? They can magic shares for nothing... selling at above $0 would make sense to them <shrug>?

rich

Is there any way of knowing how many investors have bought a stock? I assume someone must be keeping count

rich

Volume 1.8 Million for week - Max 900,000 shares sold?

Nearly all volume in last 3 days (1.7 Million).


rich

Fat fingers, small brains, and we give up easy. I did cut and paste in SGZT but no luck... however I've had an easier time with a number of other stocks... a very useful tool indeed.

cheers

rich