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The Dem-run congress didn't even SUBMIT any budgets for the 1st few years of this prez's first term, even though it is their Constitutional duty to do so. They didn't want their spending plans to be so publicly debated (as they are whenever a budget is submitted). They wanted to be able to pass simple temporary spending resolutions under the radar instead of having to defend any actual budgets. So it should come as no surprise that this current congress can't get a budget together.
longs need a plan B. he might speak again just before Nov earnings. Crazier things have happened. So let's just be mentally prepared for the prez or some other politician or some bill or some market personality to attempt to negatively impact fnma pps at next earnings.
GDP is a flawed and deliberately misleading measurement, just like CPI is. GDP counts some gvt activity as "production", when gvt does not actually produce anything. Rather, it takes from producers to fund itself. Love it or hate, that's the truth. So, sure GDP will show a hit when the gvt cuts some spending or freezes some operations temporarily (there is no actual "shutdown" happening. If the gvt actually "shut down", we'd have a hard time commuting to work the the very next day bc of all the mass luting that would surely break out in the absence of law enforcement). But gvt spending really shouldn't be counted as "production" anyway. The fear mongering going on right now is crazy. They shut down a bike path in DC! It's normally open 24 hrs and requires no personnel to operate, but those in charge WANT this "shutdown" to SEEM as harmful as possible, so they first take away the things we enjoy, like national parks and bike paths, even though they're cheap to operate. Then they threaten taking away things we actually need. It's all a sham. Nothing new here. Whatever it takes to keep us in debt slavery to the Fed they will do. Enjoy the theater!
I heard that in the hearings today, GOP acknowledged that GSE elimination was a dead idea. I have no links. Haven't had time to check out the reports on this week's hearings in DC yet.
This "gvt shutdown" is just political theater. It's even mis-named. The gvt won't shut down. All that would happen would be that a few agencies and parts of gvt operations would be suspended briefly. Hardly anyone will notice anything is different. Social security checks will still be sent. The mail won't stop. Transportation services unaffected. It's nice that as you get older, if you're objective, you start to see gvt for what it really is; a bunch of crooked interests fighting amongst each other for the ability to steal and mis-appropriate as much of the middle class's wealth as possible, while presenting a big show to all of us constantly, a show that attempts to glamorize the same politicians that are robbing us blind as a regular part of their day jobs. Shut it down. I couldn't care less. And I am NOT a supporter of either party. Thieves, all of them. They are TRYING to get us to hate each other. They NEED us to hate each other. It feeds their power. They need us to have an enemy, etc. Meanwhile, as we are distracted, they spend our great grandchildren's hard earned wealth decades before they're even born! We are all debt slaves. That's all we are to them.
Any links about prez wanting to sell shares? This is the first I've heard of that. Is this a guess of yours? Or is there a news story you can point me to with details?
1st run just an extraction of retail wealth? Talk of what caused the 1st run is one thing. But in hindsight, with pps where it is now (essentially close to what it was before the 1st run), talk of many different proposed bills having popped up, various lawsuits filed and some settled, only some of those "news items" moved pps a little. The positive ones didn't move pps as much as the negative ones. It seems, in hindsight, that news of the sort we've seen so far does not move pps too much, and not for too long. So, was the 1st run basically a big coordinated effort by long term bag holders (maybe MMs or Hedgies) from 2009 to gin-up a ton of hype amongst retail investors, so they could use retail as an escape from their long-stagnant investments in FNMA? And will only much more definitive news about some final political decision or release from cship legitimately move pps in a serious way?
For day players where are you exiting today? Is it looking toppy yet? I'm holding but am curious where your targets might be today.
Please remind us. I saw that video but I forgot what he said 100 share trades, specifically. Didn't he say they use them to swing price action and scare away others and to mislead others, etc?
Sounds great. Is there a link?
Syria's a distraction from obamacare implementation 25 days from now. It can't hurt BO that it also distracts from housing reform and fnma reform debate. But notice the talk of defunding obamacare has totally disappeared since syria heated up.
Berkowitz's interview on cnbc this morning, wherein he talked about his investment in fannie mae. I was watching Level II during the interview. Berkowitz said lots of good things about fnf and yet there were tiny share amount fake orders on the bid side, which were briefly ahead of the larger orders at a higher price.
L2 strange during Berkowitz interview. Fake tiny bids masked bigger real bids at higher pps. Seemed to hold pps down just enough during his interview to prevent any mini surges of buying enthusiasm. Overall time and sales action was slowish during interview.
His look at that point seemed very dismissive of the idea that congress will actually cause the worst case for fnma.
I have a nearly identical view, approach, and even exit strategy. I remain flexible on each. But I see it the same way you do, generally. Hopefully great minds....
IG Will order GSEs into receivership?
Is there a link to that rumor anywhere? Sounds pretty bad for longs.
When they unionize the TSA voters do nothing. When the former head of HSA stokes security panic, demands nudie scanners be installed at all airports, signs a big gvt contract with nudie scanner makers, then leaves his office to go work FOR the nudie scanner manufacturer, voters do nothing. When the gvt steals from GM bond holders voters do nothing.
Sure most people fall for politicians who talk about needing more money for education, but the truth is the constitution provides NO ROLE for the federal gvt in education. It's supposed to be managed and paid for by the states. So about 80% of what politicians campaign on ("I'm for better education"!) is not even supposed to be the realm of the Federal gvt. I fear this age of incredible expansion of fed gvt power will not abate anytime soon. I'm long fnma only as a speculative bet. I'm almost holding to spitefully dare the gvt to do the right thing here! There's a chance the law will hold up, but looking at plenty of examples over the last 10-15 yrs, we are absolutely losing most of the freedoms we thought we had. They will gladly leave us with just enough freedom so that we can still wallow in the joys of American Idol, and forget to go out rioting in the streets bc the entertainment is too distracting.
Completely agree! But i bet your post will get deleted. That's been happening a lot here lately when people criticize the messiah, I mean the prez, mr maobama, i mean berry soetoro. Sometimes people post such criticism without connecting much of it to fnma. But it's all relevant when you're dealing with such a political ticker.
What's the latest on Bernanke's AIG testimony date? Last I heard it was simply delayed with no rescheduled date. Anyone know anything newer than that info?
Couldn't agree more! When Iceland told the EU central bankers to go screw themselves, I was extremely interested in following how the aftermath would work out for them. Looks like they've since shown the rest of the world how to escape slavery. But no one is listening, or no one else is brave enough to attempt the same.
Good point. Gotta study basic hedge strategy a bit more.
It's a bit frustrating to know that there certainly are some people in DC who know exactly how things will play out. And we can't know what they invest in! Ridiculous.
Still, it'll be interesting to see the next round of hedge disclosures, especially to see how many commons they've bought or sold since Q2 earnings and also Berkowitz's reopening of fnma position (if that wasn't just a bit of PR bluster from him).
Is there anything in this plan that definitively states that shareholders would be ok? Commons? I see how that would only make sense, don't get me wrong. But since a) congress will decide whether this would be privatized or not and b) there is no documentation out there (that I know of) about this that is detailed enough to show what would or will happen to shareholders' equity (specifically commons), then we still have nothin definitive here. It looks like good news. I hadn't forgotten about this plan but it's good to be reading it again. Maybe the only documentation we need is in the constitution. But if anyone knows of anything more detailed than this article, please feel free to share.
Assuming any such run would last a few days at least, one could probably be ok if he weren't watching his computer during the start of the run. He could set a limit sell right now or even wait til after market closes on the day the run starts and make a decision for the next day. But yes we've seen how fast these runs can go, so if one intends to flip during a run, it could be very difficult. And if politically, there is reason to believe that the GSEs will be shut down for real, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that some with inside knowledge could start one last mini run to extract a bit more from retail before the shut down news hits.
Yes it was an intentional oxymoron. Just A fun way of saying that a simple, quick glance at the ticker's daily action makes it obvious that it doesn't move the way most tickers do.
Fnma pps Manipulated? You mean stocks don't normally do the same thing every day like fnma does? You mean trading in narrow 2 penny ranges for 3 or 4 hours straight, even when various "news" comes out. isn't normal? I'm joking, of course. It's crazy, this manipulation. Sure stocks can range in a narrow band but usually not as tightly and predictably as fnma does. Look at any random ticker's chart and compare it to fnma in 2013. In fnma you simply don't see the same beautiful logical randomness of pps changes that makes up most markets' movement.
But isn't $6bil much less than what some were expecting from this settlement?
That's what got me interested in fnma in first place, the macro picture. The Fed is out of tools. QE3 Plus pending wars means low interest rates continue even if a little taper happens. Housing is the macro pump / bubble that almost has to be inflated again. The politics gets in the way of a clear fnma win, but I'll take even a blurry kind of win.
Is this the post someone erased? If so, why? Seems like a perfectly legit post.
Prez supports recent IG report on GSEs?
http://www.restorefanniemae.us/aei
If so, that probably wouldn't be good news. Crooks will do whatever they can to steal.
Dangr that is a rather profound insight. But not a shock to anyone who understands our monetary system and policy and the Fed. The idea that the amendment was to prevent the printed $ from leaking to investors is consistent with the grand, over arching goal of the Fed over decades' worth of time; stealing money from the middle class especially. Anyone who's taken economics knows that policymakers just look at their x/y axis graphs and they can tell right away which segments of the population will be hurt or helped by moving prices, taxes, or money supply up or down.
QE is no different. They knew / know who will be hurt and who will benefit from it, and the middle class and retail investors are not intended to be on the "helped by QE" side.
QE was what attracted me to fnma in the first place, so I would agree with you. I figured that so much printed money will cause the housing market to catch fire again, etc, and that fnma would benefit greatly from it.
Even if the Fed tapers, they'll still taper down only a little and they'll be still buying tons of mbs.
Not that I am in favor of QE or anything the Fed does, but I played according to what I thought would happen and it did. Now if the political side would sort things out in out favor....
That's my one fear here too. One just should never underestimate the power of congress to do illegal and stupid things for their donors. It's just a risk here.
Occupy was organized by obama's cohorts. When investing in a political stock like fnma it's good to research these things a bit. Look into the (odd-seeming) dinner that Ayers had with Breitbart, and listen to Breitbart's interviews afterwords about what they discussed. He asked Ayers what happened to all the anti war protestors now that a Dem was in office. Ayers told him that the people who organized those protests were the ones who were now organizing the occupy protests. This is deep, Alinsky stuff, this manipulation and organizing. Anyone who hasn't really studied Alinsky will not be able to clearly interpret what this president is doing and what the present day cultural climate as steered by media's chosen focus is really trying to accomplish. This president is by all accounts the most expert practitioner of Alinsky tactics and strategy ever known. To understand him one must study Alinsky. Good luck getting through that stuff, too. It makes any half decent human wanna puke, reading through it. I wish i had never read it, honestly, because it just made my overall faith in humanity sink a lot. The people engaged in that stuff are the slimiest of the slimy, and the most brutal of the brutes. And it's all done in the name of bringing about radical political policies but in a way that the people will not really recognize them as radical. Alynski and his followers had a specific political party they were devoted to, and if i say the name of it, then even though those are just the facts, readers will react and say that I am the crazy one here. So I won't name it. Just do your own DD on this president, and you'll see this nation was so tricked by this guy's hype and image it's amazing. Be fascinated by the mystery of his background and why it's so clouded and covered up. Do some digging bc the info is out there. You just have to wade through the hype and ignore the name calling bc people will think that since you are even a little curious about the real background of our president, then you must be a right wing extremist. Heck, dems should do the same research I'm talking about. Why not? At least you'll know more about him. Maybe you'll like him more. You never know. Starting points could be Pritzkers, Soros, Frank Davis Marshal, Alisnky, the Woods Foundation, Born Alive. What conferences was he attending in the early 80s in NYC? It's really unbelievable stuff when you piece the story together. Who were his grandparents? Parents? What organizations did they support? Look into it. It's amazing this stuff was not front page news everywhere. If you believe he's just a "community organizer" then you don't know what that term means to those who are Alinsky followers. If you think he was just a "constitutional law professor" then you don't know how he was really teaching that subject. If you don't know what kind of political ideas and political parties Hyde Park, Chicago is a long time hotbed and home-base for (going back decades, 1940s and prior), then you don't know why our President was there for so long. If you don't know what kinds of board room meetings he busted into (interrupted) in Chicago with intimidating-looking members of the Black Panthers at his side, then you don't know what a "community organizer" is. If you don't know his efforts to increase the ease of committing voter fraud in IL in the 1990s, the. You don't know how he works. If you don't know how or at the behest of whom an IL judge illegally released sealed and confidential divorce court records then you don't understand Chicago politics, and you don't know how he won his 2006 Senate election. If you don't know where his former chief of staff Rahm Emanuel got all his millions, then you don't know much about why Fnma is so hated by conservatives. If you don't know what the political party known as "the New Party" espoused, then you don't know our president's past party affiliation. But I've actually been to that party's office in Chicago (now defunct, I think), and seen our President's name on their meeting agendas from the 1980s and 90s, before he joined the Dem party bc he knew it was the way to really get power in Chicago. He is a distractor, primarily. Everything he does is designed to make you not see what his administration is really doing as they re-write regulations and issue executive orders, etc. But he is cold, detached, and hyper partisan (look at what he's had the IRS do, and look at how the Stimulus $ was basically NOT given to counties that had voted GOP). I was curious about him since about 2003, and so i kept digging, just for fun. From what I know, I think he and his party will want the GSEs to survive. Either that, or they will want to keep them under gvt control for long time.
Wanna really understand American history beyond memorizing dates of wars and names of presidents? Watch "Money Masters". You'll see that the dates of wars and the names of the Presidents have a common link: both were and are manifestations of the will of the Central Bankers of the world, who are all part of the same entity.
interested in this topic? Enjoy 1996 era documentaries that are removed from our present day hyper partisanship?
"Money Masters"
I completely agree with you. My example E) was only meant to refer to all their (the gvt and banks') phony, "grass roots" causes they sometimes try to stoke, featuring paid protestors who are meant to appear like they are simply angry citizens, etc. See "occupy" movement, which, although there were a lot of complaints the occupy people had that i agree with, was in fact an "organized" and well funded thing designed to stoke general agitation and create the false urgency for DC to get some quick reforms done. Gvt / banks are one and the same. But when they stoke anger against themselves, as they have at times, it's to give them cover to do some more screwing of average citizens in the name of "needed reforms".
What are those sociopaths most likely discussing right now, in their private meeting with the prez?
A) taking our IRAs and 401ks next
B) who gets the spoils resulting from ramming an FMIC down our throats
C) the new cell phone tax
D) the fact that the Fed is running out of tools with which to "spark" economic growth
E) the coming PR bliz that will make big banks and rich people look like pure evil, so therefore the citizens should give up our rights so the gvt can better fight those evils for us
F) logistics for the fast-approaching 49th Annual Labor Day Weekend Elitist NWO Ruling Class Wife Swapping Retreat (aka the LDWENWORCWSR)
Sounds potentially bad. Could be partly why pps is not rising much. The revenue / profit numbers have been catalysts for the runs this year. If they are based on incomplete accounting, then that could push pps down or keep it flat. The long view remains the same, however. But a report like this, if true and if it becomes more widely known, could lead to a flatter pps trajectory in the absence of any other significant news.
Anyone think we see 2.50 without good news? Some good chatter lately. Could just take time for it to sink in but it's still not as good as, say, reid's bill or heck an official release from cship would be. Does anyone think we'll see pps get into 2.50-3.50 range without such "official" good happening? If no such news happens, will the Q3 report be our next chance for a run up?
I'm thinking I'll flip some in that range (and hold most of my shares). I'm trying to get a sense of if / when we might reach that range.
If this analysis comes from Bank of America, I wonder if it is specifically supported by BofA's executive suite. If so, then Watt's deep ties to BofA (they're his largest donor, right?) may suggest what Watt will be asked to do when / if he is confirmed. If BofA tells him to do what's in this paper, that'd be good for us (risk of messing with commons notwithstanding).
Don't get me wrong. I'm aware that that would likely suggest a positive outcome for fnma and commons, and that a positive outcome contradicts what some of the earlier info about Watt's possible intentions suggested (that he'd be for winding down). But No outside of the special elite ruling class inner circle knows Watt's intentions as of now.