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Is that really why Q3 rev will be down or just an excuse?
does it matter? how many times has the street bought the "my dog ate my homework" excuses, or the "scraping along the bottom" vision already?
its only if they *don't* buy it that the story has changed ...
this is horse puckey ...
sco won't even show folks (except for brief excerpts, and under onerous nda's) what they claim has been copied.
one thing you can be sure of: once sco makes it clear what is copied, if anything, it will be written out of linux within a week. if it *really* turned out to be something serious (very doubtful), it could probably be adapted from free b.s.d.
the smart money would short this play of theirs, because its now become their only hope for survival: they've lost almost all the goodwill they every had from their customers.
.... or was briefing.scam just trying to bait the shorts?
here's the "update":
17:06 ET NVLS Novellus sees Q3 gross margins improving on a sequential basis (34.55 -1.15) -- Update --
On call, NVLS expects Q3 gross margins to improve to the "45% range" from Q2's 44.1% level.. NVLS up by $0.45 to $35.00 in after hours.
16:59 ET NVLS Novellus explains lower than expected Q3 revenue forecast (34.55 -1.15) -- Update --
On call, NVLS credits the sequential drop in revenues to a shift in product mix to Japan... The latter compounds the SAFB101 clause, and will "extend" the lag effect for sales realizations by 60-90 days, and into Q4 (Dec) for some sales.
yah:
16:59 ET JPM JP Morgan Chase files $20 bln mixed shelf offering (34.43 -0.90)
when?
i'm not holding my breath. jpm just filed $20B mixed shelf. they've gotta keep the "investors" hungry for now, it seems.
How many quarters have we seen this scenario play out over the past couple of years???
i think pavlov once proved that, after sufficiently many iterations, its just automatic.
ah, but think of how much better glw would be doing if they had kept their pots and pans division.
16:43 ET NVLS On call, Novellus says Q3 profits will be down, and revenues will be 'down significantly' (34.55 -1.15) -- Update
time to break out the rally monkey??
gold bulls, chart & palm readers: would this qualify as a possible bull flag on the hui?
> where is the money going?
mattresses?
whoa. pog up sharply up $4.
"la la land"
hey, i live in la-la-land - well, during the summer, anyway - and haven't seen one here. perhaps u mean cloud cuckoo land?
> Mainstream dens fear Dean.
and dean can bring out dem voters. of course, among my acquaintances (college crowd), bush will bring out dem voters also.
The money they raise will be obscene, and as they've shown with their deft handling last fall and this spring of the message against Saddam and Iraq, in the end, Americans will believe what they're told to believe (at least for several months, and that's all you need in a campaign).
sigh. and i thought i was cynical.
I agree with you in principle, but I think you're applying your fishing analogy backward. The government doesn't fish. It just sits on the dock and takes a piece of everybody else's hard-won catch.
well, there goes representative government for you. here i thought the government was us and not them. but then i'm told that i'm at that point in life where you can be an idealist. i'm sure as get older, i'll get grumpier too.
but watching all the speculation in the markets, i have no confidence that the markets are going to be better at putting this money to work than the government by acting more directly. at least the government is responsonsible to us for what they do.
As for the Chinese, they are going to to what they are going to do, and nobody is going to stop them. Despite their several decades living in a so-called workers paradise, the Chinese people are 1.X billion natural-born capitalists.
ah, but we're already hearing the stirrings of protectionism. at least that's what i get from two stories i read this weekend. and here i thought were were still in the "competitive devaluation" phase.
Now is not, IMDO, a time for "fiscal responsibility" to take hold in the U.S., for two reasons:
[1] Without the donkey of U.S. demand pulling, the cart of the world's economy is likely to stop altogether; and,
true, but it has to stop somewhere. its not sustainable.
[2] Inflation is the only way we'll ever pay down our debts.
yah well ... would be cool if we weren't growing them at the same time. the horror will be the retirement of the baby boomers. no way we're gonna easily grow or inflate out of that debt. methinks this is all just massive wealth redistribution in anticipation of a cold winter. lots of folks learning how to cry crocodile tears, in preparation.
laterz, i'm going driving topless in the mountains. :-P
> Seems to me that many don't believe in triple tops, so do we
> see a higher level soon?
well, its a crap shoot, i guess. as you say, tiny float, so anything is possible. and sco is playing this well to the media. (that's their game right now: they just announced a unix licensing program for companies that use linux, to protect themselves from the threat of litigation.) i fear it'll play out until its over ... and then ... plop. but timing that ... jeez, i can't even time a recipe from the joy of cooking.
*** linux update *** (grin)
-----------
Linux Ranks No. 2 On Microsoft Risk List July 18, 2003
The open-source operating system trailed only the economic environment in the biggest risks outlined by CFO John Connors.
http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=12800942
-----------
speaking of linux issues, is anyone looking at scox as a possible short (ramp from 0.68 to 11.0 on suit against ibm re linux ip.)
regarding the legal issues, see the following article
http://writ.news.findlaw.com/commentary/20030626_chander.html
or this song :-P
http://lwn.net/Articles/34848/
McBride:
I am the very model of a modern SCO executive.
Our market share is minuscule; our losses are consecutive.
But from our labs deep in U-T, you very soon will surely see
The ultimate, the pinnacle, in high-technolo-barratry.
"Live free or die" philosophies are very well, but still, you see:
Our contracts and our trade secrets make Unix seem our property.
Never mind what we really own (a question not rhetorical):
We have thirty thousand contracts, though most are quite historical.
Lawyer Chorus:
We have thirty thousand contracts, though most are quite historical.
We have thirty thousand contracts, though most are quite historical.
We have thirty thousand contracts, though most are quite historical.
I guess that would depend on whether Joe knows anything about basic economics.
If he does, then he will understand that taking $40 Billion out of the government's hands and putting it back into the economy makes it more likely that he will have a job a year from now, so he should feel at least moderately decent about it.
proof by authority? sounds like the larry kudlow school of economics.
if your argument were true without qualification then, ultimately, we'd abolish taxation and live lives of unbridled prosperity.
although in the current context, i'd instead invoke the old saying:
Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach him how to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.
meaning, fiscal policy needs to address things that monetary policy alone can't, and someone needs to show responsiblity there. a yearly fish to subsidize america's our unending hunger for chinese exports (e.g.) isn't quite making the bad any better; hell, the chinese economy is growing fast, in a world already glutted with excess capacity.
> But what is holding it up is the ....
hmmm. the hope for the second coming of the greater bool?
maybe everyone's just waiting to see who blinks first.
nem doing really well here. gold closed up $3+. dollar down almost 1% from hod.
the dollar seems to be saying: why put off 'til monday what you can do today?
POG spiked ~$2. anyone know why?
[in edit]
oh, i see. dollar plunge. anyone know why??
> Lotsa companies meet or beat estimates, a few fall short, But
> the prices are declining. How can this be? I am puzzled.
hmm. i don't think pmcs, e.g., went up 400% on the expectation of beating analyst expectations of -0.05 by 0.02. right?
:-P unfortunately i don't know hebrew, so i just had to improvise on what the adjectival form of the name might be ...
yay!
(excuse the enthusiasm, but i've been hunting this prey continuously since last august ...)
It looks like MSFT is pulling for the longs whilst ...
apparently looks were deceiving. perhaps its time for a zeevoid nassacre?
> Nobody has anything to say about gold!?
i've bought the dip over the past couple days. drooy hit zeev's 2.20 low target. not yet back over 146 support. but (?) still the support of that big triangle beckons? or not?
i'm too giddy to type.
dang, u know i'm SO sad i missed cof. its been one of the things i've tried to short regularly, with little success ... and they just wore me out. sigh.
pmcs and vtss are doing nice healthy dumps here. actually, pmcs is lagging vtss ...
> computer games sold to teenage boys with large machine guns and
> tits
these are important, and its why nvidia has flourished. i remember when the first lara croft game came out ... was the only reason for its great success (sorta like the moovie). and as the processing power of graphics cards increased (lots more triangles per second that could be rendered) and the next version was released, guess where they all went. virtually no detail on the face. all in the important parts.
---
wow, looniness abounds here 2night. perhaps its the moon. or a top?
> Mrs Malaprop
sheridan, the rivals (a play). you wouldn't like it. british from around the time of the american revolution.
Will they trap the AH longs WAY underwater and give the shorts a chance, or will they blow this up and thru 60?
they're doing a 500M shelf. that sort of skews the odds in the latter direction, methinks ...
interesting day. brks is finally working on the short side, and getting killed ...
Even APple recommends Wiondows servers for file and print servers.
they do until they don't. linux is cheaper and more reliable.
Do they make a free linnex version?
doesn't have to be free. you buy the windows version and run it using wine. runs at practically native speeds
note in general, if we're talking text/typesetting, then its only print media that need these things. gimp is as featureful as photoshop, e.g. (actually, by now, probably more so), and if you're publishing on the web its fine. its only when you need the color technology that you need to pay.
Clearly if your collaborating on acrobat project and your on Mac platform and you corporate customer is on PC with newer version, you may be screwed if you can't get full functionality. MSFT did it to APPL on Office for Mac several years ago.
hmm. well, i think you're still overlooking (1) the fierce loyalty of mac users who still can't get used to the braindead complexity of windows (even xp); (2) the fact that many of the shops you're talking about will be homogeneously mac or windows (cheaper that way), or if large enough for variety, will have even some primitive sort of workflow management - meaning that the artists can use whatever they want, the editors whatever they want (hey, doesn't framemaker still exist?), etc. and someone will be in charge of integrating and producing the final output; (3)
MSFT did it to APPL on Office for Mac several years ago.
yah, although msft also did similar to corel, borland etc (now, msft in apple's shoes, releasing competitive, "free-er", integrated apps competiting with others. e.g. how many times do you go to a site and find that what they're presenting is available only in quicktime? doesn't mean you'll turn around and leave.
anyway, in sum, adobe would be foolish not to pursue the mac platform, cuz if they don't they'll alienate a big chunk of their user base. no way is adobe going to be able to force migration of users from mac to windows. if all of the incentives so far haven't done it, this won't be the turning point.
zeev, drooy about to hit 2.20. you really think this is a buy here, or premature?
Okay, Who's buying INTC here?
AG
> Why doesn't he lie and say that his indicators are showing that
> the recovery has begun in earnest?
i can answer that: because he has to talk simultaneously to the bond market and the equities market, and they both want to hear different things.
> Looks like we are at the bottom in gold.
well, i'd like to believe that. i'm nervously holding.
I bought 200 512 MB DRAM chips for $62 last week now they are $72
sell! sell!
I read recently from Adobe that all new software titles will come out on Windows side first and will port to MAc later. This doesn't bode well for them with holding on to last bastion of publishing marketplace unless they totally reinvent themselves into media company with ipods and MP3 files.
not entirely true. adobe's motivation is clear: apple has competing products, some of which are already bundled with the mac (at least in some version). so, instead of looking at it as relegating the mac to a second class citizen, you could also see it as grudgingly ceding the mac market to apple.