I am updating my staus.
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Well done LMB. Everyone values companies differently. I prefer companies that have good cash flow if at all possible. The market disagrees CSR, China Agritech and a number of other companies all with high recevables still have made excellent investments.
rich
-- next earnings report simply meets expectations
As you know, they have set the earnings expectations extremely low... and commented that they thought numbers were conservative....
Given more batteries in 2nd half of year for Xmas... I'm not worried. The execution risk is there but minimal.
rich
Cool US not seeing Dali Lama - there is only one reason on Earth to do that... to curry favour with the Chinese. Even when US put unilateral tarrifs on tires, a pointless tarriff since car makers will only get the tires from India etc, China put some minor sanctions in return. A pointless argument since it's not in the best interests of debtors to annoy their creditors
Similarly, the usage of a basket of currencies to buy oil instead of dollars... I wouldn't read as an attack on the US but more dealing with the rationality that the dollar is loosing it's status.
IMO there is a power struggle going on but, umm, China aren't going to lose
Personally, Israel vs Iran is more a worrying interaction but not our problem (or if it is every stock is going to be in pain).
rich
None more than usual... business as usual..
China is the conduit through which the world has to interface with the, frankly, unstable North Koreans.
From China's point of view... it's good that they are seen as allies with North Korea.. since few else in the world can influence this loose cannon they can used any influence as a bargaining piece in other political games.
It's good that N Korea wants to interact with another country. I would be more worried if they maintained Isolation.
So, what happened? North Korea offered to denuclearise the peninsula. China had to respond. China would have applied pressure after North Korea's recent antics. The denuclearising talks have lasted and will, in my opinion, last a long time because they are the pitifully poor country's only leverage.
N Korea has already go $2.2 billion from various countries during the "negotations" for which N Korea has done sweet nothing.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jIUMgKnfmtyg8T8wMAghB4V2lInAD9B4U40G0
Lets be honest, if they did fire a misile it ain't going to land in China. China is going to do nothing to offend the US, Asia, and the West who they need as trading partners.
Anyway, my prediction: lots of negotiations, punctuated by posturing and missles flying into the sea, money changing hands under the table, and the final prediction, undervalued microcaps to rise faster than S&P 500 for the near future. The final prediction has no correlation to the first ones
rich
The timeline for getting the mines going would be the most interesting thing to know for investors....
It's not a matter of just re-hiring the miners and getting digging again is it? They need to get them up to the higher saftey specs (or at least that was the offical reason for local government forcing their sale in the first place).
Still, even if they only get one mine going in the next 6 months that will be a big EPS boost.
rich
I think I know where your coming from. Maximizing investments dollars. LLFH is a good deal still but PUDA is much better.
LLFH *may* get some deals together vs PUDA has got them. It's a strong value proposition compared to the other mining stocks at this point in time.
Yup, LLFH were comfortable with 94 cents.
rich
Cheers CSP, I did sell some LLFH to buy some PUDA already. With the intention of working out if LLFH's plans could justify their valuation compared to PUDA....
Hmmm, LLFH are thinking big but not sure it's PUDA big yet
rich
Stupid Question but are consolidation mines Coaking coal?
Not thermal or whatever?
cheers
rich
4 * last quarter makes little sense for agricultural companies since they are by nature seasonal.
The June Quarter last year was their best quarter. They also have 35 cents a share in cash on their books.
If you take 35 cents off share price and earnings ttm of 22 cents you end up with P/E of 1.6.
If you compare the first 3Q's of this year with last year.... then the earnings growth rate is 75% ( ((14/8)-1)* 100 ).
These aren't bad metrics I've, somehow, managed to fit CNOA and CDBT into my portfolio.
rich
Est cost to PUDA from Reuters Report $0.5 million
"I'm being paid 17 million yuan for the 10 million tons. According to the policy, the compensation is only 25.5 million yuan. [1]
......
." A Datong Coal Group manager noted that coal bosses also know it is better for them to take what is offered now than to get nothing later.
17,000,000 Yuan for 10 million tonne mine.
0.1464 Yuan to Dollar conversion
$2,488,800 for 10 million tonne mine
$0.25 a tonne
Puda is obtaining 1.6 Million tonnes of mining [2] = $398,208
Round it up to $0.5 million.
Puda will upgrade this to 3.6 Million tonnes as per the PR [2].
http://www.chinastakes.com/2009/8/shanxis-coal-barons-being-reorganized-out-of-the-industry.html [1]
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Puda-Coal-Receives-Final-prnews-2580073087.html?x=0&.v=1 [2]
--------------------------------
It's to put in mildly unfortunate to be a coal boss of a small mine. The numbers seem consistent with LLFH which seems to aquire large assets in the low millions.
Anyone estimate it better?
rich
So, Mr Sykes, if you don't mind me picking your brains, what would be in your Chinese Agriculture portfolio?
cheers
rich
Thank you again... very useful to understand. I never even thought as a private investor I could buy a warrant until you started talking about it on yahoo/Geo Investor. Thanks I'll keep my eye on it..
rich
I was seldom able to see an opportunity until it had ceased to be one.
- Mark Twain
... Except PUDA
- Gorilla Gorilla
TMI WS TM ENTERTAINMENT AND MEDIA WTS
BID 0.4500
ASK 0.4900
LAST 0.4800
Change 0.1900
% Change 65.52%
Volume 243,300
It's just spiked up in the last few mintes. Are we being watched? (if so then buy some more PUDA it's a screaming buy! )...
So, treating it as learning exercise... each thing I buy at 0.49 cents allows me to purchase 1000 shares at $5.50 or something?
rich
Thanks Drexion... I've read it and think I understand. I will look at what's on offer later when I review TMI
Cheers
rich
TMI I've tried to understand the warrants! But, sigh, I failed to... But I'm not adverse to other people making money
If anyone can explain how it works that would be good, don't feel obliged Drexion The company looks undervalued as is... and as decent make good provisions...
My father has a few shares... but would love to play the warrants.
rich
PUDA had to get the information from the consolidation website as we did. I don't know what time they release the information?
Given that they would have to, I suspect, confirm and write a PR they were always going to be late to the party.
rich
Any Estimates for Q3? Were no longer a producer but a distributor. Should we expect so much concentration in Q3 earnings?
I guess since more crops will be sold in Q3 then naturally we should make more earnings?
rich
Chinese farmers' income to continue rising in 2009, official says
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-09/27/content_12114706.htm
CMTP Price(7.48) - cash ($1.61) / TTM Earnings at 0.95 = P/E of 6
Managment guidance for Y/Y growth is 25%
Managment guidance suggests that Q3 & Q4 of 2009 is worse than comparable 2008.
I'm not sure about the growth going forward Q3 2008 vs Q3 2009. I don't know when they changed over to the higher margin products?
rich
Cheers Jo I've heard of pappy..
CNOA Joe, the one thing, ok there's probably more, is that CNOA seems to have bought and sold some businesses?
Do you think this buying and selling of parts of their business will have affected this years, forthcoming, Q3 numbers significantly over last years?
I guess the shares aren't higher as it's all about the Q3 numbers I guess?
Hopefully, I'm not confusing everyone.
rich
Trader - do you calculate AR as 90 days?
90 days aint great but hospitals are notorious in China... 180 is quite possible.
rich
Well, I'm a buyer... I'll start putting numbers into my spreadsheet... normally it's the otherway around... but I'll make an exception.
cheers CSP
rich
Sales in last Q were 15,298,959
Receivables were at 15,298,959
<shrug> Could be worse....
What I do like is the sector.... slap bang in the middle of the rural health reforms... If the government wants to throw money at the farmers.... who am I to say no to some Yuan?
rich
BPSM looks nice
Revenue growing...
Net Income doubled
EPS for the quarter... 17 cents hahahahaha
P/E 10 from 1 Quarter
Receivables around 90 days
2 million cash up from 700K in Dec 08
Share count same as last year, gulp.
Anydownsides?
rich
Hi Bogus...
Shanxi Jianhe Coal Industry Limited Company
vs translated page?
Ping Lu Tai Jinhe ughin Limited
Are they the same thing? God knows, could be lost in translation.
"Shanxi Coal" looks spot on though....
rich
I disclose I don't have a position, sigh might buy some...
Fair enough
Anything more than 0 got to be good eh?
Is that good or bad
Look for Shanxi Coal? Name they used in 8-k
On May 14, 2009, Shanxi Puda Coal Group Co. Ltd. (“Shanxi Coal”), a subsidiary of Puda Coal, Inc. (“Puda Coal”), entered into an Agreement of Shares Transfer (the “Agreement”) with Li Jingquan and Feng Ming, both are Chinese citizens, to purchase their equity, constituting 18% ownership, in Shanxi Jianhe Coal Industry Limited Company (“Jianhe Coal”) for an aggregate purchase price of RMB 100 million Yuan (approximately $14.6 million).
From translation page
(A) Ping Lu County
2, Shanxi Coal-Ping Lu Tai Jinhe ughin Limited (mine capacity by 30 million tons / year);
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http://202.99.195.6/cms/templet/default/ShowChannel.jsp%3Fid%3D1055&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com
Is that it?
At least CDBT got NT in on time, sigh eom
I would evaluate it using earnings and growth and barriers to entry like every stock?
We laugh at the valuation of AONE but competors want a slice of the pie. What's to stop them getting in and hurting the margins? Just asking
They have a mine which could be a competetive advantage. Given it's a scarce resource I like that. They also said that they are willing to sell to other companies. So there will be other competetors entering, which could mean margin pressure in the future?
The patent is "on our process of manufacturing active lithium cobalt oxide" so how they make it, not what they make.
Anyway, still doing my DD... The only thing I hate more than missing out... is losing money
rich
Hello IPO, ok, here are my figures...
FY 2009 8.5 Million net income.
Outstanding sharess 53,422,971
EPS 0.16
To justify pps of 8 we need P/E of 50.
So, 50 * 0.16 = $8 share price?
rich
Current growth rate I've got is 23% (0.16 vs 0.13)
So, up to management about how many lines they change over, or add on, and how much improved the new margins are I guess.
If they clearly demonstrate this to the market and tell people they are going to grow 50% or more over the next few years then P/E 40 is possible assuming were getting to bull run territory.
That said.. I can see why people are excited ... I just haven't figured out the ramp up, sigh Are they going to be test runs or going for electric car production now? hmm...
rich
Thanks FanPaw, I'll re-read it and see what to make. It's complicated
I was thinking
Controlled interest (income from stuff we own outright)
Non-controlled Interest (income from stuff we have a minority steak in)
Your saying:
Controlled interest (income from all we own outright and have minority stake)
Non-controlled Interest (income which belongs to other people in busineses we have a minority stake)
Yep?
rich
Hi IPO ... This dumb money wants to know how you get the valuation? Are you expecting the move over to car batteries to have higher margins?
cheers
rich
Could CPQQ have been shorting? Just thinking aloud....
They could have financing coming up....?
rich
CBPO noncontrolling interests not in diluted EPS
I was reading yahoo post and they were talking about how non-controlling interests weren't taken into consideration on GAAP earnings. Which is unfortunate for CBPO because last quarter controlling + controlling income = 11 million, while controlling income was 7 million. Big difference no!
Does anyone think I shouldn't include non controlling interests? The cash keeps racking up however the accountants want to cut it
Are there any other companies affected by this?
rich
This was described in the 10-Q as...
Effective January 1, 2009, the Company adopted FAS 160, “Noncontrolling Interests in Consolidated Financial Statements - an amendment of Accounting Research Bulletin No. 51” Certain provisions of this statement are required to be adopted retrospectively for all periods presented. Such provisions include a requirement that the carrying value of noncontrolling interests (previously referred to as minority interests) be removed from the mezzanine section of the balance sheet and reclassified as equity. Further, as a result of adoption on FAS 160, net income attributable to noncontrolling interests is now excluded from the determination of consolidated net income. In addition, foreign currency translation adjustment is allocated between controlling and noncontrolling interests.
Hi Joe, Ok I'm slow... There doing 8% increase Y/Y and they are resigning an exsiting contract. There's upside there but do you think it's 100%? Is it an expanded relationship?
cheers
rich
Q4 figures you have to calculate... so there's always as possible mistake. However Q4 08, had by my calculation:
Rev 45,206,516
Gross Profit 5,476,698
Gross Margin 12%
Net Income 2,881,272
Net Margin 6%
These numbers were significantly lower than the rest of 2008 quarters where Gross Margins were all in the 30s and the net margins were in the teens and 20s.
You might be right that there is a charge, we await the 10-K, but I am going for what I think is the simpler explanation that this is history repeating itself and Q4 margins are lower than the rest of the year.
rich