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One must define the meaning of "activity". To me activity is public announcements of Memorandum of Understanding between nations/companies, drill ships Navigating there way to the JDZ. Bigger awareness campaigns. Not just drilling activity.
Brez
Yep, we are all meaning to say the same thing
Brez
BB, I think THEY are 5-6 hours ahead of US.
Brez
Thanks Art but its Brez or Brez63, Breze is a little feminine and dude, that's not me.
Brez
Yowsa,
Imagine CVX, SNP, Addax, Anadarko and all the others sharing the cost for only 2 drill rigs for 6-7 month! And only ERHE gets a free pass. Now, there is a God!!
Cheers
Brez
10,
I'm not sure I fully understand your questions. If you are asking, where can we get a rig for March then the following would be my answer.
ONG has the Belford Dolphin until end of 06. They are stake holders in Block 2 of JDZ. They are curently in operations (I believe) west of India. I believe the last time we had the discussion about distances and travel speed it turned out to be less than 30 days to the JDZ. Anadarko has the rig starting 07, it is an assumption that they will be using it for the JDZ instead of the GOM.
Brez
Thanks Rail, multiply my timing by 2 (due to 63 days) and divide it again by 2 (two rigs!BD and Pathfinder). October 07 stands.
Cheers
Brez
Oilphant, what is the biggest issue that is standing in the way of signing the dotted lines?
Thanks
Brez
Hey Dude, still up?
Cheers
Brez
But what we can have is a rig (s) strating a drilling program in March 07. OBO1 was capped after 30ish days. If similar program is used, 6 holes punched in 6-7 monthish.
This means 7 holes (including OBO1) or 8 holes (including OBO1 and2) by October 07. With 1 rig.
Although this could be "happy thoughts" on my part, this is happening:
1) CVX is courting China;
2) Addax is leading a consortium for Blcks 1-4;
3) Belford Dolphin will be available to Anadarko (blck 3) in early 07 (Jan-Feb(?)).
4) CVX Team lead for OBO 1 is now working for Addax;
I thinks all parties involved are working a lot faster than can be expected considering the complexity of the issues. I for one am impressed. But then again working for the Government, I'm impressed with anything that moves forward!
Cheers
Brez
Rail, they may still announce a Memorandum of Understanding underlining the concept of unitization to explain the Addax led consortium for Blcks 1-4.
Assumption, Addax meant what they said about leading the drilling for all blocks.
Cheers
Brez (IMHO)
Dang Rail, I'm down to 5 events (still like Xmas!) in 6 months!
Thanks appreciate your posts.
Brez
Ok March for first drill?
What needs to be done 'till then;
1) Announcement of OBO1 commercial find;
2) Announcement of unitization (?);
3) Drill rigs contracted;
4) Drilling schedule;
5) XMas holidays; and
6) Drill hits soil.
6 events (ok 5 oil related, but I like Xmas!) in 6 month. Ok I can handle that tempo.
Bring it on!
Brez
Oilphant, this matches the timing with the Belford Dolphin, when will pathfinder join the party?
cheers
Brez
Crazy, they may be wild price prediction, but, no matter how you calculate or break down a value of a company, it deals with its reserves(at least initialy).
Once you have an idea of reserves you assign a risk factor to it (undeveloped, strategic, or proven reserves) which derives your value per barrels.
You can take into account all the royalty taxes etc and still work it to a dollar vallue per barrel.
Look at a companies lyabilities then you can derive the real value of a company, and invest in it.
I have not done that for Addax, so I don't know. But I have looked at ERHE, they are looking pretty good. If drilling next year reveals that they are sitting on 1-3 Billion barrels, well I know how to do math.
Brez
True, but ERHE can wait, because there SP will increase with every activity that will occur between now and full development. The question that the majors have to ask themselve is "When do we jump in? if at all."
ERHE just have to hold on as long as they can.
Brez
Tryoty, how do you force a Major to pay what ERHE their worth....Simple, one word....competition.
There exists on 3 options;
1) ERHE grows into an Oil company;
2) ERHE gets bought out by an international company (Chinese, Dutch etc)
3) ERHE gets bought out by an American company.
The term 'bought out' is a liberal term and you can substitute "buy in".
If ERHE is good enought for CVX to buy, it is good enought for SNP to buy. Now I ask you, who is hungrier for resources? I think the Chinese, are more threaten then the Americans. Therefore...competition, got to love capitalism!
Brez
BB, I don't thing Addax can afford us. A $7-$14 Billion acquisition, I believe, is out of their reach.
Brez
Thanks, that's pretty close......
Brez
AA, please excuse my ignorance, when is the Jewish new year?
Thanks
Brez (obviously not Jewish)
OT: Merci, got one for my wife's birthday last May, great machine!
Brez
Thanks Rail, appreciate your input.
Brez
Thanks LB1,
Bottle of wine later......life's great!
Brez
Rail,
There was some discussion about the seismic maps presented on this board as real or maybe not so real (due to spelling error of a "shale diaper" or something). I would be interested on your take of those seismic maps.
Thanks
Brez
Thanks Walldog, thanks NY, that was a valiant effort at getting some more info from Oilphant!!!
Cheers
Brez
Hey Oilphant, today is my birthday, tell me something juicy (oil related please)!
Cheers
Brez
OT: The good news is, they're your partners not bosses!!! Don't worry I lack tack also (single cockpit, type A personality) but after this weekend of negativety on the board, I'm sensitive............where is that box of tissue......
Cheers
Brez
PS NWTF, asking questions is great and needed. But questions have to be asked in manner that will optimize the chances of positive returns. Just saying bro, didn't mean to start anything. Cheers.
Dudes, you have got to ask questions in a better way, which is less accusatory!
"Rail, thanks for joining the board! Your experience as a Geologist is a definite asset here as we sort out all sort of technical details. Has your experience in the field, lead you to ERHE, and therefore to this board?
Thanks
Yours trully
Brez "
Thank you for your time
Brez
Fair enough
Cheers
Brez
Oilphant thank you for posting. Although it may seem that way sometimes, this is not an hostile environment, just a faceless one. Please feel free and releaved to let out more information, which is clear to me, you are wanting to share with us.
Respectfully yours
Brez
Fishdog,
I thought he OBO's find, OBO's oil, not OBOs meaning many.
But who knows?
Brez
Can you please elaborate without any doubt, any post which were not!
Dude, do you understand what an impossible task you are asking!
I can tell you without a doubt that tomorrow I will wake up at 6 am and go to the gym.
At 6:15 a friend calls and tells me that his car busted, so I jump in mine and go pick him up. I don't get to go to the gym.
Does that make me a lier? A health nut pumper?
Dude, are you aware in big contracts how many "for sures" get delayed at the whim of a politician, lobby group etc.
I have issues with your insistance to get something that someone cannot produce, and if he could, than he would have to be so close to the top that his actions would totally be illegal and jeopardize himself and his company.
So give me a break, get over it muffin and move on.
Brez.
PS take that advice to the bank
Oilphant, this is a public (with rules) venue. Some of us do enjoy your posts. It is impossible to please everyone, you have selected to pass imformation to the board, not because you wanted everyone to agree. Bashers would never agree, skeptics would never agree.
Keep in mind the reasons why you post here.
Now to bashers and skeptics. You all seem to be screaming "he is never right"! Can you unequivocally prove that he is "always wrong" (PS you better be a strong lawyer to prove that). Therefore, I thank you all for your warnings, vented expressions. You have let your feelings known. It is time for you all to move on to a more productive, and less vigilanty like subject.
thanks
Brez
Thanks Walldog,
Brez
Anyone has access to this Journal?
Oil & Gas Journal - Nigeria-Sao Tome JDZ
Oil & Gas Journal - Nigeria-Sao Tome JDZ - The Block 4 joint venture is attempting to secure a deepwater rig to drill a well in the second half of 2007, ...
www.ogj.com/display_article/ 266350/ARTCL/none/Nigeria-Sao_Tome_JDZ/ - Similar pages
Brez
Thanks Dat,
The link is actually
http://homepage.mac.com/brezihub
Brez
Troyty,
Where or how did you get to a 20% value?
Thanks
Brez
Dadd,
do you have the original links of the pictures of Blck 2,3,4 on your website?
Brez
My bus to the airport is now at 14:05 so I'm good.
Dat, at the end of the day, which ever way you calculate (guess, taking into account all taxes, or comparables) you can always refer to a worth in terms of $/barrels of oil. This Value is dependent on exactly what you said, possible/propable/proven etc
That is why on my spreadsheat I have a spread starting at $1/bl to $12/bl. The more you become confident about the price to more to the right you choose the value.
As well the second part of the spreadsheet take into account a different way that other posters said that one should calculate the value. In the end, the PPS are similar.
I think the bottom line is, one can easilly see that we are worth more than .40 .50 or .60 PPS!
Cheers
Brez
Bay, I did it quick for you.
Here is my .Mac site. Click, download ERHE Value.xls and have fun dreaming.
Brez
http://homepage.mac.com/brezihub/