I am updating my staus.
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MYST: TA people, anyone think now offers a good entry point? I've got plenty MYST already, naturally, but friend was thinking about buying some?
cheers
rich
Or could be the change of management means there's no one to push the form through and / or stops them signing off and the like.
Also like the fact that ihub things were green
rich
NT had contact number: Peter D Zhou 212-232-0058
I've phoned this number and only got the answer message, sigh. I don't know if this is a useful angle of attack. Has anyone been able to contact them?
rich
Got the number from...
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=6818527-1011-5978&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=737923&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fcik%253d1393067
CSGJ - Yup it's cheap ED eom
CDBT - Not to my knowledge no.. I can't find any filing and we have the "E". I am hoping for either a PR or a file stuck in before opening. Clearly, I'm use to disappointments
Someone talked about a way to get alerted if a filing came in? I think this would be very useful.
Only thing stopping me selling is the thought that Bradford would be waiting on a bum bid to get the panic sellers Oh, that and half cap in cash - growing company blah blah. Sigh.
rich
CDBTE - Sigh, Lassie would make better CEO eom
HQS - last quarter Y/Y earnings looked flat.. do they intend to grow? Yahoo says P/E 8 cheap but not if stock doesn't grow.
My secret reason for never wanting to buy the stock was that the warnings said... we could be washed away by Tyhpoon... so if I bought the stock I would have keep monitoring the weather reports.
rich
CSGJ - forward P/E more like 5 according to this post...
Do you agree Ed? Still looks cheap but not as cheap as the trailing P/E suggests.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=42521445
I admit I've spent 5 mins looking at this but every minute counts
rich
I know the feeling...
They have, my understanding is, until midnight tonight.
Last year it looks like the hit the deadline day... then sent an update a week or so later. Fine by me at this junction.
rich
TMI Do warrants track the share price? So if the share price goes up the warrants *should*, but not have to, increase as well?
cheers (I do appologise for my numpty warrant questions)
rich
CGDI stink bid - what's one of them?
I'm guessing it's when you put in silly low bid?
cheers
rich
SKBI@Roth Capital Partners 2009 10am EST
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Skystar-to-Present-at-the-iw-349007216.html?x=0&.v=1
This is the presentation... looks like all there others.
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=6838702-7706-10840&type=sect&dcn=0001144204-09-052754
rich
How about a $6 stock at P/E 30 in 2010 currently trading at $1.60 today. Anyone? Anyone? Come on it's growing > 100%. Tough crowd
Yup, seriously, if it's not a fraud it's at a stupidly low price. It could be managed by a dog wearing a hat with the words CEO emblasoned on it and I would buy it at this price.
Assuming it's not a fraud
rich
In 2012 it has an estimated earnings of $1.46 ... this is approx... I am assuming some dilution will spoil it...
Anyway.. That's $28 stock at P/E 20 (given it's been doing > 100% growth that's possible). So, if the plan executes in 2012 someone will give North of $20 for your $1.50 stock. Now, how this pans out in the meantime... do they get the orders, do they execute etc... dunno... but there's a greed element is in there.
It's also worth doing DD in hope of a dilution at stuipid low price result in pps diving.. always possible with china micros!
rich
The only thing I know by heart in my name and address. Though apparently forgetting stuff is an evolutionary adaptation / advantage.
Anyhow... I think we are over all the requirements for option 3? Hell, if it keeps going this way $3 is in grasp sooner or later.
http://www.amex.com/equities/howToLst/eq_HTL_ListStandards.html
Does anyone know how we find out the float?
rich
I believe the word is adversarial
But I take your point
rich
Can I be the first to start umsubstantiated uplisting rumour.. first day over $2... assuming they are going for AMEX... 30 more days is it?
rich
Hi Joe, why does he think they are B.S.?
rich
Well, it made my jaw drop
A small company that can franchise 2,000 stores in 3 months. It's either an easy sell or they are coming to YONG.
rich
Yong now has 7000 stores thats 40% Q/Q
They are announcing [1] 40% growth of stores but that's quarter over quarter. They announced they had reached 5000 in June [2] and 3500 in March quarter [3].
They were in the hundreds during 2008. YONG's strength is the marketing - they saturate a village with marketing and end up selling nearly all (heard reports of 80%) YONG fertilizer in the village - it's a matter of eduction and marketing all rolled into one.
Anyway, quite spectacular and their 50% for next 3 years looks very doable given they have twice the number of stores than they had in March quarter the start of the agriculture season.
[1] http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?storyId=25549156&topic=YONG&symbology=null&cp=null&webmasterId=100983
[2] http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?storyId=24156528&topic=YONG&symbology=null&cp=null&webmasterId=100983
[3] http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?storyId=22286814&topic=YONG&symbology=null&cp=null&webmasterId=100983
China, despite it's reserves, is becoming a net importer of coal... It's surprising but possible. High quality coal, coking coal say, would definetly have a market.
rich
Do you mean 25th? or 28th? On 28th there were 32 million issued to (I believe) Wukuang?
rich
:) We need an interm O/S report....
I assume the 9 months at 170 million was a weighted average... So, I'll assume 178 was the number... Beyond that... I'm getting a headache Share's O/S has never given headache before I'll look at it again later... Worth doing the exercise.
rich
Ah, good point... We'll go for worse case.... that's 50,822 now and 72,000 estimated or 33% growth Y/Y. And hope these numbers weren't included
30% growth is what I used for my $1 target ($0.97 for the more exacting people) - obv market won't attribute 30% growth value if it's growing at 33%.
rich
Well, I would have preferred the spin off of the irrelevant assets assuming fair price but if they say tax avoidance is the reason then fair enough..
The forward projection of growth is a beautiful thing in the stock market Sigh, somewhat tempered by the clarity of what they are counting in the growth.
Obv, they should have done the prelimerly tax work before announcing they wanted to do spinoff! The changing of minds so frequently isn't a good thing.
rich
Sep10 Est72,000 <- Jun09 39,822 = 65% Growth Y/Y?
Everyone Agree?
From The PR...
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&cb=1255347380&article=39850272&symbol=NB^MYST
The Company is forecasting significant membership growth in the next 12 months. The Company believes Subaye membership will reach 72,000 unique members by September 30, 2010.
From the last 10-Q (June)
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=6757646-856-172358&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=86961&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fcik%253d1139570
Subaye.com’s platform consists of its websites, www.goongreen.org, www.x381.com, www.goongood.com, www.subaye.com and the Subaye Alliance network, which is its network of third-party websites. As of April 30, 2009, Subaye.com had **39,822** members and the Company’s video database consisting of 80,025 profiles of corporate video showcases. These showcases offer a cost-effective venue for small to mid-size enterprises (“SMEs”) to advertise their products and services and establish and enhance their corporate brands.
------------------------------
I "think" I've pulled the right numbers out... Assuming that then 81% is right for the growth over 1 1/4 years. My idea was to divide that number by 1.25 to get a Year over Year approx.
My maths...
((72,000/39,822)-1) = 81% Growth over 1 and 1/4 years
((72,000/39,822)-1)/1.25 = 65% Growth
rich
Working from this 8-K
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=6816028-882-6299&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=86961&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fcik%253d1139570
Wukuang IE Limited Shares....10,000,000
Wukuang IE Limited Warrents..22,000,000
Virtrius IR...................2,000,000
Virtrius Uplisting............1,000,000
Alan R. Lun...................2,000,000
He Yao........................1,000,000
------------------------------------------
Total........................38,000,000
------------------------------------------
rich
Updating the figures using the latest share counts which are at least 261,200,983
Share Price 0.115
Earnings per share ttm 0.032 (rebased using the current O/S)
So P/E is 3.56
Earnings growth is > 100% (183% for what it's worth)...
Lets work with 30% growth.
That's a PEG of 0.12 (A peg of 1 is what we normally expect for fairly valued stock).
Taking earnings of 0.032 and multiplying by 30 we have target price of 0.97 or 7 times upside from here. Clearly there can be signficant dilution, esp for acquisitions, and still remain undervalued. Clearly 30% growth could be conservative and clearly acquisitions may add value.
rich
Ok, got off my lazy butt....
Outstanding Shares.....170,200,983
8-k 28 Sept 09..........38,000,000
8-k 9 Sept 09 Cai........3,000,000
8-K Aug 2009...........50,000,000
Total.................261,200,983
Some of the shares vest at 12 cents but I figure were pretty much there. These 8-K were all about officer remuneration. Further dilution is expected from buying Subye and other companies but at least these give revenue growth.
Net Income over last 4 Quarters = 8,439,708
Rebasing the EPS using ttm net income and latest share count = 0.03
With PPS of 0.115 that gives... P/E = 3.56
This is what you were quoting on Emerging board Trader so I think I'm there
In my notes I've got them down with $2 million more Revenue in the coming Sept Quarter - I think it's because they are now charging for a website. Anymore revenue boosts I'm unaware of gratefully excepted
rich
Hi Jo
From their presentation dated 2/27/2009 they picked out Hebei and Xinjiang
http://www.chinacleanenergyinc.com/images/PDF/02-27-2009%20CCGY%20Corporate%20Presentation%20Final.ppt
Future Hebei and Xinjiang refinery locations are planned to take advantage of strong cotton cultivation industries
* Easy access to raw material such as cotton-seed waste
* Duplicate existing plant conditions – sell to diesel retailers in close proximity
* Avoid transportation costs by building plants close to feedstock
* The biodiesel segment has virtually no accounts receivables
rich
What's the outstanding shares people are using? I'm probably out of date! I'm using 170,200,983. Hmm.... need to look at 8-Ks... I'm off to bed (It's 00:43 in UK ) I'm wondering because you think P/E 4ish from post on Emergin...
cheers
rich
Only fair to cover the greed in MYST after the fear
As covered by many on the boards:
Share Price 0.115
Earnings per share ttm 0.06
So P/E is 1.92
Earnings growth is > 100% (183% for what it's worth)...
Lets work with 30% growth.
That's a PEG of 0.06 (A peg of 1 is what we normally expect for fairly valued stock).
Taking earnigs of 0.06 and multiplying by 30 we have target price of 1.80 or 15 times upside from here. Clearly there can be signficant dilution and still remain undervalued. Clearly 30% growth could be conservative.
rich
Hi RealFast,
It's a valid to question the management of MYST, so why not
-- They are posting positive earnings with $12 million AR.
-- You have to question if their revenue is real.
-- This is a web site, not a steel plant.
I am missing your point on AR in relation to earnings...
The AR's work out with a DSO of 114. High, undoubetly, but within Chinese bounds. No doubt this leads to some of the cash problems we are seeing.
For last 4Q's
Sales Per day average 112,738
Average Receivables 12,855,315
DSO = 12,855,315/ 112,738 = 114
Do you have a reason to believe the revenues aren't real? SOHU isn't a steel plant either?
-- They sold 50 million shares to an investor for $3 million in cash (.06/sh). Great -- deal for the investor. He just doubled his money this past week.
They are undoubtedly short of cash. In the recent 10-Q 8 million of the operationaly generated cash ended up as "Deposit for Purchase of Inventoriable Assets" - from what it looks like it a depost for goods distributors - part of their online shopping initiative? They also don't make best usage of their share price they wouldn't be the first Chinese stock to have done this.
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=6757646-856-172358&type=sect&dcn=0001144204-09-043867
-- They plan to do a reverse split 100 to 1 and then authorize shares to 150 Million
-- post split. Is that 15 billion or 1.5 billion shares in today's figures. I'm
-- confused!
Yup, this would seem to be the biggest risk that the authorized shares would be used wisely. They seem lose with the shares but they also seem to be using them to expand the business. I guess it's the same old question. Do you trust the management? Some do, some don't, <shrug>.
rich
Oh sorry, short term price predictions are out of my area of competetence.
rich
The only risk I can see the restatement of accounts......
Either
1) Wait for restatement... see if OK and buy more with complete confidence.
2) Buy anyway... no-one can make a case for amortization being a significant change to EPS.
It's 8% of my portfolio... I'm a happy holder... and if I had some money today.. it would be one of the ones I would strongly consider adding to. It looks like from your messages you've already discovered PUDA
rich
Hmmm P/E 4.4 ...looks like it's going to be earning more this year... Uplisting possible, GS predicting significantly higher coal prices.... Assuming 22% growth... target price north of $30. A sell would be dependent on your timeline horizons and what you would want to buy instead, but it better be good I think this is has got some legs in it....
rich
SKBI - Nice day 2.5 times days av volume and counting... up 9% ish - big seasonality.. Q3 & Q4 is were the monies made and will ultimately decide pps. Price still dumb cheap.
rich
Cool. Buying competition up in a young market, marvellous. Probably shouldn't be allowed
I don't know how many competitors there are? Assuming not that many it's got to work in our favour.
rich
Don't shares have to be above $X for 30 days (or so)?
Nases listing requirements.... There's this rule 5450 thing? Does that put in the 30 day requirement?
http://www.nasdaq.com/about/nasdaq_listing_req_fees.pdf
rich