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I think another down leg is setting up. Watching for put entry.
You said averaging down works well for you, if so then continue, but my thinking is, if you have to keep averaging down then you had a bad entry to begin with. And weeklies decay so fast. Everyone does things their on way though.
Are you still holding all those weekly calls? I think it's always a bad idea to average down on weekly options.
I think this is a shake out of the weak hands before they run it some more.
Sold those puts for a loss, now awaiting the next signal.
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Yeah, In the past I would buy closer expiry's, but I've been seeing some strange things happening lately with the theta on weeklies. Lately I've seen things such as calls losing value when spy drops, then spy rallying back above that point and the calls not gaining back the amount of value they should. I'm thinking higher than normal IV is the culprit due to the increase in volatility the past few weeks. For now I'm playing 1-2 months out.
Bought March 18th $185.00 Puts for $6.00 on the notion this is just an oversold bounce and will fade back down to low 180's in the next few days, if a close above 190 I will assume I'm wrong and sell.
Went all cash at the close, sold March 180 puts I bought yesterday at $5.01 from $4.18 and sold February 190 hedge calls I bought this morning $2.62 to $2.89. Nice green week for me so far.
I think we just witnessed an actual SPY short squeeze.
You made the right decision based on the information we have at this moment.
wow.
Our economy is doing horrible and SPY's real value is 120. It's easy to justify a bear market.
Yeah I got the march 180 puts yesterday for $4.18. I hedged today with small February 190 calls, but I'm expecting more down before a sizable bounce.
It's crashing through every technical level like a hot knife through butter, could see 160 in the next 2 months.
Full on bear market now. No real reason to buy calls here. You could say "oh daily RSI is at 27 so it must bounce" but besides that, there's nothing to indicate a strong bounce from here. Looking at individual stock charts, the market looks like it will continue to head lower.
March 180 puts will be glorious.
Yeah im not gonna fight the trend and buy calls just to buy calls, if the low 180's is SPY's destiny then so be it.
This could be the bottom we're looking for. And February could be a leg up like last year. Will wait until tomorrow before deciding on March 200C.
Now I get it, you mean a micro squeeze not a full on squeeze.
Calls here in this OS range is a good idea, you will do well.
Yes but an average joe being forced to cover 100 shares of spy wouldn't be a squeeze. Yeah SPY could rally 3% and it could force someone like me to have to cover my position but that wouldn't make spy shoot up and make it a squeeze.
Average traders aren't working with enough money to make an instrument as large as spy squeeze. It's when a substantial percentage of total shares sold short are forced to be covered for a loss that makes a squeeze. SPY has 278 million shares short which has a dollar value of 52 billion. So that means it would take a whole group of financial institutions with billion dollar short positions to be forced to cover to make it a short squeeze. A big financial institution with a billion dollar short position is not going to be caught off guard by an intraday rally in SPY and be forced to cover their short for a loss. So it would take an extraordinary set of circumstances for there to be a short squeeze in SPY.
Yeah I saw it, like I said it's possible but would take a rally breaching the limits of reality. Normally short squeezes occur when stocks jump by at least 30%. That means spy would have to go to 250 in one day before big money starts getting margin calls and it becomes an official short squeeze.
What are you talking about? This is a message board. If people don't want others to comment on their trades then don't post here.
Yeah it's possible in theory but from a practical standpoint it would take extraordinary circumstances for it to actually happen. Spy would have to gap up like 10 bucks then rally another ten bucks.
huh? I would say it's not possible to have a short squeeze with SPY. Short squeeze happens on smaller stocks with a limited float when there is sudden news causing the price to jump much higher, and forcing people to cover short positions at a high price due to margin calls.
It's only a squeeze if people are forced to cover a short due to rapidly increasing price and lack of share supply. Spy was dropping before this pop. If it's voluntary, it's not a short squeeze.
Hearing chatter that this pop was the covering of a massive short position initiated in the 200's by a big institution. Makes sense, the volume was huge, and the chart doesn't make the case to load the boat here.
I've been meaning to ask you, what is the "awe" indicator you talk about sometimes. I tried to find out about it but no one has heard about it. When you say "2 min awe shifting bearish" what do you mean?
Sell to close at 3.70. made back the 2K I lost yesterday.
Bought February 19th $192C for $3.26. Daytrade.
Looking for call entry now.
Sell to close at $4.18.
Bought February 19th $185.00P at $3.80 for a daytrade.
So what are you guys thinking right now calls or puts?
Haven't seen anyone acting inappropriately. I'm a mod so I read every post.
I would think about buying puts instead of trying to time the bottom of this move. The selling was intense today, and the chart is pointing down from here, how low no one knows but 182-184 seems very likely to come in the next week.
Sold calls at $2.47. net loss of $1.8K.
I would just sell and move on. There's no reason to believe we will have a leg up from here.
Heavy sell volume on todays drop. Looking to get out and stay out of calls for the time being.