I can't reply to private messages. I only have the basic membership Sorry.
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Ok but I don't want to reverse my negative doom and gloom forecast before the close or it will close lower. The tea leaves told me so :)
We still haven't seen any real positive response to the deepwater 2D, so I don't have any expectations that anything less than stellar news from the 3D in June is going to have much impact.
Sadly until some kind of major news comes out it looks like HDY is going to continue to get ground down.
I don't think there is much question that some entity or entities are gobbling up cheap shares. The only question remaining is the colour of their stripes.
BTW unless I misunderstand a very basic business principle, if R&R is playing an active role in the current situation, wouldn't it be tantramount to corporate suicide on their part? Who would hire them again if they turned around and stabbed their client (or clients as they also lined up the buyers) in the heart?
Tomorrow is not looking great, sure could use a well-timed news event.
Bos Update 19/4
Once again to be clear, I have no doubt this is the NWAAM survey. I just love some of the other mysteries this raises, like the loop on the 15th/16th.
http://i55.tinypic.com/1zp4gp0.jpg
That loop certainly was INTENTIONAL. Look at this image and note the position of the BOS Atlantic @ 12:59 pm on the 15th and the plot for the course ahead. The loop was made some 12 hours later.
http://i56.tinypic.com/vem8w0.jpg
BOS update 18/4
I cleaned up the lease information overlay. I lost a little information in the process but I think it made the overall legibility of the prospects a more legible. Gotta love photoshop :)
direct link
http://i56.tinypic.com/1497721.jpg
I doubt my response will survive for long . . .
Thats the NWAAM survey I referred to.
BOS update
Here's the update for today.
direct link
http://i53.tinypic.com/24bt4aq.jpg
Anyone who wants to repost these images elsewhere feel free, that's why I'm providing the direct link. There is no question these passes are part of the NWAAM survey, but that loop certainly isn't random. All locations given are at the beginning of the new 24 hour cycle for the date given unless stated otherwise. Where the track is discontinuous, it is because the track was not reported. As for accuracy, the lines I am redrawing are not out more than a fraction of the linewidth I am using. I can't speak for the original data, but just to be clear it all comes from here:
http://marinetraffic.com/ais/datasheet.aspx?datasource=ITINERARIES&MMSI=259765000
Correction: The holding by Columbia Energy and Natural Resources Fund shows on MSN Money as being reported on Feb 28, so it isn't a new purchase since the share offering.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/ownership?symbol=HDY&Holding=Mutual+Fund+Ownership
BOS Atlantic update 16/4
I'll post these every day as long as they continue to take passes over the lease.
When I look at that loop I can't help but think that Ray said the 3D showed additional prospects and how it will up the risked significantly
direct link
http://i54.tinypic.com/w8q8eq.jpg
For those in the know, could they order an additional pass like that loop without being required to announce the transaction in a press release? It would seem to me to be a minor expenditure and it would be extremely intelligent to take advantage of the tracks already planned for the multinational survey.
I sure do love a good mystery! Beats dinner theatre by a mile!
Even if nobody else believes
The California Public Employees retirement plan does!
California Public Employees' Retirement System
600,427 shares
up from 391,921 in March
Welcome aboard Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC
300,000 shares
Welcome aboard Columbia Energy and Natural Resources Fund
300,000 shares
Those are the newest changes I see
http://www.dailyfinance.com/company/hyperdynamics-corporation-common-stock/hdy/ase/institutional-ownership
Here it is
I make these by overlaying and aligning the photo showing travel path each day with the coastline on the base image I created and then tracing the path of travel. They are pretty accurate for the scale of the image and the data I am working with.
This one is from April 11 up to the last reported location, it also shows 2 prior reported locations. All of the reported locations are at the begining of each 24 hour period unless otherwise noted.
http://i55.tinypic.com/2vjstb4.jpg (direct ling to image)
This next one shows prior locations since first arriving on the scene. The survey work undertaken in late March is approximately represented only by a green square. It would take a lot of work to map in more detail as there were multiple passes over a small area. I did not spend a lot of time on this, the green square is just an indication of where they were focusing. You can look at the individual maps from the tracking website if you want
http://i51.tinypic.com/fml5ag.jpg (direct link to image)
Speaking of addicted, have you been keeping up on the journeys of the Bos Atlantic since I last posted about it?
http://marinetraffic.com/ais/datasheet.aspx?datasource=ITINERARIES&MMSI=259765000
I continue to find it interesting how the recent tracking showed them to the south, the immediate west, the immediate north, and now multiple tracks across the HDY lease. Add the extended periods where they went 'dark' and I can't help but be addicted to the mystery :)
It could be all part of the NWAAM survey, but the irractic paths prior to these last two tracks wouldn't be what I would expect from a methodically executed survey. BOS did say they were responding to proprietary requests as well.
"In West Africa it is expected that the vessel will work both on the NWAAM survey as well as responding to proprietary survey requirements in the area."
I would think if HDY was involved we would of heard something, but I can't help but think that maybe big oil wants a peek at whats really there?
If you want I can transpose the recent tracks over the prosects again in photoshop and post the image.
The signs seemed pretty strong to me last night and some confirmation today. Tommorrow will be an interesting day indeed. I'm just a rookie at this so I've never witnessed what 10M+ shorts running for cover and only fools for sellers looks like before :)
To da moon Alice, to da MOON!
They can only keep a good horse down for so long :)
Come on baby lets see a strong closing sale.
The travels of the BOS Atlantic
If nothing else it makes for interesting speculation.
Image 1
Path of travel and position @ 2011-04-14 00:58 UTC
overlaid on HDY lease
http://i54.tinypic.com/zwahec.jpg
Image 2
Above with major plays included
http://i52.tinypic.com/2lxwbyf.jpg
Ok ok I'll think about it when I'm back in the green lol but I really like it here ;)
Damn I wish I had some more green to sink in right now. I am a rookie at all this, but I have learned a LOT in the past couple months. I got into trading/investing last summer in a small way when it was a no brainer. Buy BP. Buy Citi. Then I made two mistakes back to back that cost me big time, including buying into HDY just before the drop in January. I panicked and sold the day before it reversed. It was an expensive lesson but I paid attention. The free ride is over now and I've been reading up on everything that unfolds. When I bought back in (timing is everything, I seem to know how to pick the downturns) I knew the basics and future potential of this company. And now I know why you never add on the downslide, or at least why you hold some back.
ok that's the introduction I never gave when I arrived ;)
(ps, I'm Brad, and I hope I didn't clutter the board too much with this post))
Ok, truth be known show me a way to sign up to IV without having to give up a cc# and all the personal info they want and I probably would of joined. I hate giving out personal info to join a posting board. I don't know if it used to be that way, but they wanted everything including the fingerprints of my firstborn!
(and I never exaggerate either)
I think this is all about welcome to the world of big players. They knew the high volume that occured around the offering had to mean a bunch of new players jumped into this stock thinking it would only go up. They also figured that many buyers had to to dry up the increased buying pressure from the offering sooner than later. When that happened they sat back and let it fall. As the remaining deep pockets of the long term investors dried up at the 'deal' price around $4.70 (remember all the posts? We'll never see it below $5 again after today!) the price continued to fall. Then they swooped in and started buying.
That's my take on what's happening. Imagine if you're a mutual fund. You got in on 2 or 3 M shares of the offering @ $5.00. In the past week you quietly sucked up another 2M around $4 - $4.20 a share. Your average share price now sits around $4.50 range. In another couple weeks you look like a genius!
Of course that's all just the speculation of this rookie.
Speaking of short hairs
Did you notice that the days to cover (2.32) they give went down based on the distortion of average daily volume (5.4M) by the 25M day? If Ray does have a little surprise up his sleeve, the race to cover could get VERY interesting!
I think that's spot on what's going on. Add to the fire that the drillship is not signed at this point (that has me a little nervous given there is no penalty in the LOI if Jasper walks), pushing back the 3-D clearly into June (last call was late May/early June) and no actual details on the new holders, stir that up with a lot of new shareholders who thought everything would be nothing but roses, and it's a perfect recipe to accumulate for those with the means to drive prices down.
Add to that the expectation that somehow today was going to be the release of some concrete news and the stage was set.
It's probably better if I don't answer, except to say that I don't want to drag a discussion about the level of behaviour I see on the HDY Public board into here and I choose not to support it with a membership. No reflection on the HDY Discussion board, except that they are all part of the same IV.
The map posted by Evansholler on IV is really good. I just drew an approximation to clarify that the deep water plays were beyond the reach of the drillship. He managed to track down the actual data. Nice to see!
My pleasure :)
Off to see the Calgary Flames loose to the Canucks :) Enjoy your evening!
I could not agree more. I wish my average share price was a little lower, but I'm sitting at $5.16 average price and am still content. One of these days very soon now we will bounce back from the addition of 28+ M shares and this stock is going to fly!
I noticed that the actual Jasper Investments press release was discussed on another board. It values the firm part of the contract (first well) @ $15 M. Extending that as a baseline, if all the options were drilled would be $105M total for 7 holes. HDY's 77% share of the cost would be $80 M. Yes I know I can't simply extend that price, but the potential is awesome! Here is the actual press release from Jasper:
http://www.jasperinvests.com/files/2011/SGX-2011-075.pdf
I've also been keeping tabs on the location of the BOS Atlantic, which is in part conducting a multi-national survey. What I find interesting is that multiple daily locations were reported up until it arrived just southwest of the HDY lease on April 1st. It then went 'dark' so to speak until April 7th, when it 'appeared' again to the north of the lease.
http://marinetraffic.com/ais/datasheet.aspx?datasource=ITINERARIES&MMSI=259765000
Now I am not highly knowledgeable of the normal daily operations procedures of survey ships, but you have to admit this does pose some intrigue. Could it be that HDY has taken advantage of the ships location and ordered some additional 3D to help select the drill site(s) or to bring some more to the table on the deepwater prospects? The upcoming conference presentation and shareholder conference call could very be interesting!
Please do. I don't have an account on Investor Village, but I read the posts every day.
I have been watching for any reported change in institutional ownership since the announcement of the share offering. What I posted are the only changes I have seen to that list. If you actually divide the purchase price by # of shares, it tells a more interesting story.
SPDR $16.34M/3.54M = $4.61 average share price
Roxbury $560,238/102,985 = $5.44 average price
So neither of these appears to be actual purchases of the offering. I'm still waiting to see some kind of indication where the actual 28+M shares ended up. Perhaps we'll hear something from the conference presentation?
One of the problems with that list is that it rates the top 10 according to the total value of the shares at the time they were purchased rather than by total number of shares held, so other larger long time holders may well have sold off shares recently but they would not necessarily show up on that list. If anyone knows of any other sites, it would be very appreciated if they could provide any other insight they may have.
An additional 6.7M shares come out of lock-up on April 18th. This will be something to watch as well.
sorry, was a double post (deleted)
New mutual fund holder
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF
3.54 M shares
http://www.dailyfinance.com/company/hyperdynamics-corporation-common-stock/hdy/ase/institutional-ownership
I printed off this page on March 18 and have been watching for changes. This is the first major change to show. Too bad it only shows the top 10 in each category based on dollar value. Other changes:
Fidelity Spartan Extended Market Index Fund
increased from 201k to 212k
Roxbury Small Cap Growth Fund
increased to 102,985 from ?
(were not a top 10 mutual fund holder before)
and of course Strange is now a top 10 holder.
The AOL number for the 15th and the number you provided today suggests the number of shorts has plateaued.
http://www.dailyfinance.com/company/hyperdynamics-corporation-common-stock/hdy/ase/short-interest
(EDIT: my bad. I see the numbers you provided were for the 15th as well)
The link I provided for marine traffic gives an older location for some reason, if you go here and click on the last reported location you can get the location I superimposed. All I did was zoom out to include the coastline and superimposed it over the leasehold map.
http://marinetraffic.com/ais/datasheet.aspx?datasource=ITINERARIES&MMSI=259765000
The next reported location should tell more.
BOS Atlantic
Someone sure is curious. I overlaid the location of the BOS Atlantic (http://marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?zoom=9&oldmmsi=259765000&olddate=4/1/2011 4:51:00 PM) on a map from the Annual report. The overlay could be off slighty (neither one is a great map) but the current location of survey work is VERY interesting.
(edit: there is a lot more data available on their travel, I am going to construct another image with some more data, will post it when it's done)
I get the feeling that it depends on the first two wells. If one gives a good reason to drill a 2nd in that prospect, we drill the 3rd well because nothing trumps proving the resource when it comes to negotiating future financing. If neither does, then the money gets channeled into the deep water 3-D. Of course if both hit pay, that changes everything!
Ah, I think I miscommunicated. I only meant it would take them close to 3 days to cover @ normal volume. IF we see a gap up on monday morning watch this baby run :)
I think Ray did exactly the right thing. I am pretty impressed with how he keeps his options open and clearly thinks each one out. He is not someone who is going to allow HDY to be squeezed into a bad deal.
Did I mention I'm thinking about mortgaging the kids if we see $4 ?
I agree with the screaming buy, I bought more @ 4.70 yesterday.
Not going to comment on R&R or CFO, but considering 25M shares changed hands in one day, nothing that happened this week surprised me that much. I think a lot of uninformed buyers jumped in on the news expecting the price to rise without any kind of hiccup or adjustment period. When things dropped this week they saw a messed up chart (hello, 25M outstanding shares added) got nervous and started bailing. Hopefully they mostly sold off yesterday and todays pregnant response is an indication of things to come on monday. I'll be watching that monday opening price with anticipation.
That said it wouldn't surprise me if we take another dip down before the shorts are done. If it does, I'm sitting with more money to pick up a few more at bargain basement prices. With 8.5M+ short shares out there, the rebound will be just that much sweeter :)
May your 5th expectation come true sooner than later! Go Hyper!
Thanks for the welcome!
I am fairly new so there is lots I don't understand. I am trying to educate myself, so with that in mind I want to throw this out there as a possible way to understand the current price and the immediate landscape. I would certainly welcome constructive criticism!
I took the old resistance and support levels based on the closing market cap March 24 ($6.01 closing price $758,509,864 m.c.). I then factored in the additional shares 126,207,964/154,957,964 and multiplied the old resistance and support levels by that factor (.814). Here's what I came up with:
Resistance
old new
$7.49 $6.10
$6.37 $5.19
$6.10 $4.97
Support
$5.50 $4.48
$4.92 $4.01
$4.63 $3.77
$4.47 $3.64
$3.91 $3.18
Of course the situation is not static and things changed dramatically by the close of friday's market. However it does give me a way to begin to evaluate current share price until new support and resistance levels are firmly established. A pop up to 6+ takes the stock close to or above the existing highs for total market cap. A dip down into he 4.5 range takes it down to the market cap level where previous solid baseline support was established based on market cap.
I would expect the closing on the offering will be the first event that potentially pushes share price up, and that a dip down as low as the $4.50 range should not be taken as a reason to panic prior to the release of the 3-D. In fact would see it as a brilliant buying opportunity that would shake any of the remaining nervous money out.
The time frame announced for signing the drilling contract is early April, (pg 10 of the AMS transcript) so we could hear something as soon as late this week or next week. Everything has played out right on que so far so I suspect this will too.
From a PR point I wouldn't be surprised if the strategy will be a press release announcing the success of the share offering this week, followed up with the news of who the major investor or investors are. Follow that up next week with a press release on the awarding of the drilling contract. Then hold our collective breath until the 3D news in late May/early June (unless I forgot something inbetween?)
I keep thinking of a 1978 one hit wonder by Randy Newman . . .
It's not late, nothing changed yesterday. If you go back through the transcript of the shareholder meeting, you'll see this:
"And, with regard to reevaluating the prospects over the 3D area, we will submit a package to them when we’re done. Now, we could be done in early April or in early May but it could take about a month from when we submit the package, when the results will come back.”
Hyperdynamics Corp. Page 24 2/17/2011 2011 Annual Meeting
The completion of the report by NSAI was always antipicated sometime between early May and early June. The 18K released yesterday stated:
“We expect we will complete most of our processing and interpretation by late April 2011, and that we will submit the data to Netherland Sewell shortly thereafter for purposes of Netherland Sewell providing a new resource evaluation.”
All that happened is they narrowed in within the original time frame. It wasn't pushed back beyond the original time frame.