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Dudes, like any intelligence collection, no one source are deemed credible. Its when you start comparing different sources for similarities you may have something of value. So
AA, BB, Spec, Elect, Oily, Mark, Crazy, etc. You guys are our "shot gun" effect for information collection, maybe we can get a good "concentration" one day.
Cheers and keep posting.
Brez
OT: I pretty much have had it with ethics, morality and Law of Armed Conflic. I'm turning my brain off. Going to a "Garden Party" in 1 hour then I'll go see "Flyboys" to remind me that flying a Neuport is more fun than a "Mahogany Beaver" (that's a desk, for non-flyers out there)!
Brez
Dudes, slow weekend!!! I feel like I'm in a slow motion casino in a virtual Las Vegas!
Ccccccooooommmmm'''' ooonnnnnn bbbbaaaabyyyyyy,,,, Dddddaaaaadddddyyyyy nnnnneeeeeeedddddsssss aaaaaaa nnnnneeeeeewwwwww pppppaaaaaiiiiiirrrrr ooooofffffff sssssshhhhhhhoooooooooeeeeeesssssss!!!!!!!!
BBBBBBBBBrrrrrrrrreeeeeeeezzzzzzz
BB, I believe there is no money that CVX can bring to the table that SNP can't beat. Now another exercise of Interoperability between ONGC and SNP would make sense to me.
Now, I share "The Dane's" conscerns about volume and price (lack there of). The only way I can rationalize this lack luster performance is that ERHE as always been in a Buy-in, Buy-out situation. The street always believed that they would be, but yet ERHE still holds out. Therefore the street must believe that something else is holder SEO back, they don't know what it is, so they wait.
My 2 cents worth
Brez
Manti,
did you sleep at a Holiday Inn last night?
Brez
Oilphant,
Your message can be interpreted as
1) There are two parties that are interested in a majority, or
2) There are two Indian parties interested in a majority.
Which one is it?
Sri, wealth and beauty to you
Brez
Does that mean that we have to learn how to eat curry with chop sticks?
Brez
OT: It is very nice, I was born in Gatineau!
Brez
OT: My house in Cold Lake as gone up .37 (LOL more actually) in the last 2 years. Cold Lake is setting itself up to be the next Fort Mac!
By the way the minimum wage for flipping burgers at Mcdonalds in Fort Mac is $22/hour!
Brez
Normally I'm in Cold lake Alberta. Currently stuck in Command School for 1 year in Toronto Ontario.
Brez
Good morning,
I was just playing with numbers, but you are correct.
Brez
They could,
At an average volume of 100k, 50k buy 50k sold.
20 trading days per month
it would take 356 month for a majority
So it is possible, but not probable.
Brez
Oily take note, this is a good way to post
"Board, just got word that ONGC and SNP both got their individuals government's approuval to enter into a Memorandum of Understanding to advance an offer to ERHE BoD. To my understanding, after reviewing the offer, SNP/ONGC are offering a cash deal buy-out at approximate amount of $23 per share of ERHE. Last that I saw, SEO was sipping an expensive champagne. SEO gave himself and the BoD until next Wednsday to review the offer. I'll get back to Ihub by Friday. Cheers for now. PS Brez you owe some beers!"
Life would be more simple
brez
If you remove the Oily posts, all the speculations (I one of them) on those post, and all the folks bi-tchn' about Oily's post. That would leave only Homeport with latest News.
There, there's you summation of the week.
Brez
You bet,
By the way, is this the Friday night's Lonely Heart Club Band? I'm studying away from home, what's your excuse?
Brez
You know dadd,
I said before, posters post what they have heard and not usually the final decision. If they were in a position to post the final decision being presented there would be serious ethical issues. Therefore call them ringers, 2nd tier, what ever. They may be close to hear the options, but not close enough to see which ones are weeded out
So, what do all the "birdies" tell me? I look for a trend, I match those trends with knowns. I then match the trends/knowns to events.
Then I put myself in other business's shoes (call it intelectual empathy) and ask myself a question, "what would I do?". Its like playing chess against yourself.
In other words I guess! But it allows me to not get Hung up when nothing happens on the Jewish New Year or Easter!
Cheers
Brez
Oil-cowboy,
I agree with all your reasons, but I believe that SNP and CVX also know that. That is why they would sooner buy-out, rather than shyly get in. Now if (IF) ONGC and SNP form a consortium and turn their attention to ERHE, say good night. Because it just a matter of money, they will either get it all or none IMHO.
Brez
yeah, just picked them up!!!!LOL
Brez
Opus, at a glance 16B sound high. This is the way that I look at it.
1) Massive amount of fuss over JDZ = Must have oil
2) First hole got oil = either they couldn't miss or validates data = Must have oil
3) Conservative Seismic predicted possible 14 B = More than likely have oil
4) Adax leading a consortium blck 1-4 = Must have oil
5) All companies looking for deep rigs = Must have oil
6) Multiple "birdies" from different sources of elephant fields = Must have oil
7) Oily, 11B block 1 is low (take it with a grain of salt, but) = Must have oil
8) CVX given it its best shot to hurt us = Must have a shiite load of oil
All in all, perhaps 16 b in block 2,3,4 could be a little low! Our oil is carry free, maybe my estimate of $6/ is also little low.
In today's context, I find $23 PSP borderline low. Last year I would have said $10 was borderline low. Next year, I'll say $40 is border line low. I think SEO is saying the same thing. But more importantly, in my opinion, CVX, SNP and any other caller are thinking that this is going to get out of hand and out of reach pretty schnell! So, they either chuck a rock and buy us out now, or step out of the way and watch us become the quickest oil company in history.
Brez
PS. I'm still not a fan of Buy in theories, it just doesn't make sense to me!
Rocky, I am not an expert. Therefore I sent an email to ERHC and asked the question. I'll post my answer if I get one.
Cheers
Brez
Claude Alain,
No matter what offers are being bargained in the back office, there will need to be a shareholder meeting to approve any buy-out.
If (IF) SNP and ONGC got together, they would still have to fork out $8Billion each for a SP of $23ish (equivalent to 16 Billion Barrels at $6/unproven barrel in Blck 2,3,4) + rights in blck 5,6 and 9 plus EEZ. That, in my mind would be good business practice for two oil hungry countries.
Now, if I were SNP and ONGC I would not wast my time with dealing with small fries. ERHE, set themselves up as "prom queen"(I think this was BB's name for them) all pretty'd up, no debt, no employees, no CEOs. Just legal rights to lots of wanted acreage which is about to be proven oilerific! Two companies with record earnings, yeah its just a matter of price.
Oily, what do you think the strike price is?
Brez
Oilphant, how is the deal on the table going?
ref 73971
Thanks
Brez
I'll sleep well tonight,
We have rights
We have good partners
We have rich partners
We have hungry partners
We have compeeting National Interests.
Yeah, I'll sleep well tonight
Cheers
Brez
Art, please be carefull, you are continuously posting 37 cents when plenty of post were wasted to reasonably explain that it more than likely meant 37%. If you don't agree with that, it's ok. But maintaining a strong view of 37 cents is manipulating an argument. (Polite is the tone of my voice as you read this)
Respectfully yours
Brez
Oily,
If I was a major oil company, would I be looking to "buy-in" to a smaller company or "buy-out" the smaller company outright?
Thanks in advance
Brez
OT: Thanks
Brez
OK 12:36:27
Sorry Oily,
My head hurts!
Buy's or Buys? in (37% of ERhE) or out (for 37% of SNP SP)?
Cheers
Brez
Fishdog, my last post (perhaps not a bad thing). You know it would help us out if we also knew the strike price that SEO is looking for. This would "Frame" our expectations. If you could indicate this with a range value or in anywhich way you can (3:8 with SNP to high, 2:8 too low etc) that would be great.
It is great the games people play. Most of us play these games because we seek something that others may have. So, please, can I play with your toys? Will you share them?
Respectfully
Brez
BB. I'll buy that. What you say makes sense. SNP would have difficulty with their masters in paying $17 Billion for a company on unproven grounds. But a $6.12 price for 37% stake in the same company is more appealing for them.
As far as the next 63%, yeah, if there was oil, I would buy ERHE out.
So I agree with you.
Oily, did you mean Buy in or Buy out (totally).
Now the timings for Oily's "Clever post"
6:12 don't know perhaps $6.12 or perhaps when he got off (SoToSpeak) from work.
But it definately was a "marker". It took an hour before anyone noticed. Then couple more hours before he got everyones attention about his obvious "blunder". Then he posted at 10ish the rest. Finally at 11ish pm someone noticed the "message". I guess he wanted to make sure that he had the boards attention to get his message across.
Cheers
Brez
BB. If one is to believe Oily's post, we must keep in mind that he stated that when the oil is brought up from the blocks (March 07), ERHC will not be ERHC, SEO will not have ERHC.
As well in the latest "clever posts" if uses the words "Buys out" and not "Buy in". Symbolizing a total take over of the company. I am curious about the plural use of Buys or did he mean Buy's ?
Therefore it is logical that if I believe his posts, I believe the following;
The Chinese have an offer at the table. Will the yuan be high enought?
1:8 ($7/shares at the time) share swap ratio is offered.
CVX enters the fray with an offer. I Would Not Accept (IWNA) $6 per
CVX seemingly fails to win over SEO
End Of Deal 37%, SNP buys out ERHE, the deal is on the table (acceptance in principle until shareholder approuval?)
Cheers
Brez
____________________
Posted by: oilphant
In reply to: None Date:7/29/2006 10:00:59 PM
Post #of 74099
The sp will burn bright when ERHC and oil are clean.
The Oil, ERHC and SEO are all there now, there is only one constant and that's the Oil, when Oil is brought up from the blocks, ERHC will not be ERHC, SEO will not have ERHC, but the OIL will still be OIL.
__________________
Doug C,
Did you send a PM to Oily?
Thanks
Brez
OT: Your point is valid, and fully understandable.
I'm keeping my last 4 last post for tonigh.
Sorry, about the earlier morality thing, I have been sitting for 2 weeks getting bombarded with speakers on Ethics, morales and values. I'm only human!
Brez
I believe he is replying in a sarcastic manner.
"Any big trade sitting @ .37" " No, because I did not mean $0.37 obviously!"
Implying if you don't see a block of 420 Million shares for sale at .37 its because it is not what I meant by .37!
Brez
PS Good 8km in the memory of Terry Fox
OT: Just a thought.
The immoral act of divulging the future with 100% certainty.
The well meaning actions of an individual to reveal the future with concrete proof in order to help his fellow man is an incredible burden. If an individuals post were 100% accurate in the past, and the proof presenting were so compelling for positive actions yet to be public were divulge to a few. If you were "guaranteed" of the result, what would stop any of us to mortgage our home, lifestyles, futures of our families. If we had such knowledge, would any one of us, step up to this plate?
Sometimes, be happy that you don't know the future, be happy that someone does not tell you the future. It allows you a measured response in achieving your goals using measured means.
Therefore I conclude, it is great to dream (and I do), but I cannot ask from someone what I would not do (though I may still ask explanations to understand meanings!).
I'm off to the Terry Fox Run.
Cheers
Brez
Ok I'm up! amj you are right, but! a value of $22/ would be corresponding to a belief of 16 Billion barrels of oil in blcks 2/3/4 estimated at a value of $6ish per barrels of unproven.
Yes it is a stretch, but does anyone on this board believe that it is possible to have 16Billion in blocks 2/3/4?
Brez
You have got to admit, its more fun than complaining about posters!
LOL
Brez
PS I've gone Decaf for a month now, and at family dinner had a real coffee, dude I can't sleep!
I don't think China's top 10 oil company trade in the "pennies"! Unless I am way out left field!!!
Brez
Are we talking about the same Sinopec?
http://investdb.theglobeandmail.com/invest/investSQL/gx.symbol_rep?pi_symblist=sinopec&iaction.x...
Brez
Dude, I have @ $ 47.7
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical SHI-N (US$) 47.700 -0.250 -0.52 15:53 47.960 47.501 4,900 64.600 29.550