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Broadband UK: we need a vision
by David Harrington
Thursday 17 October 2002
Until the politicians wake up to the importance of universal access to broadband, we are destined to keep muddling on
The communications White Paper - the precursor to the Communications Bill that will give teeth to Ofcom, and which is now being debated prior to becoming law next year - is built on noble aspirations.
Those who crafted the ministerial comments in the Communications White Paper certainly believe in the power of broadband to transform our society, yet their political masters have failed to grasp the policy nettle. They have failed to put in place a regulatory environment that positively encourages the creation of universal, affordable and effective access to broadband.
The result is a hotchpotch - availability is a lottery and depends where you live or work, and the regulator is bogged down with persuading BT to open its local loop to its competitors.
There is a basket-case of measures from the Broadband Stakeholders Group intended to improve matters. Meanwhile, the Treasury sees fit to impose a spectrum auction regime which, as both the Telecommunications Users Association and the Communication Management Association (CMA) warned at the time, is guaranteed to cripple the industry financially and to delay the introduction of broadband fixed wireless and 3G mobile.
Broadband is usually defined as anything which is an improvement on dial-up 64kbps. The problem with such a low threshold is that opinion is seduced into seeing ADSL, at 256kbps, as the target. It is not. ADSL is at best an interim technology and is one-way to boot. All it will do is move businesses and society away from the narrow-band, dial-up mind-set and make people aware of what can be achieved.
The sad fact is that BT is under no legal obligation to provide broadband connections and no other licensed operator will provide them if it does not make commercial sense.
Under current projections, some 40% of us will never be covered by the ADSL roll-out programme. The Broadband Stakeholders Group makes much play of the potential of satellite to the home. Why it should do so is a mystery: affordable satellite is essentially a one-way street and relies on a return path via a telco landline.
Two-way broadband is technically feasible (and is offered by a few suppliers), but satellite transponder capacity limits the number of customers it can handle and it is rather expensive - even in the US, the FCC insists that it is installed by qualified engineers.
Roll-out of broadband fixed wireless has been crippled by the spectrum auction, which imposed a £2m bid threshold for each licence, failed to offer a nationwide licence and resulted in just 60% of the country being covered.
Powerline carrier technology has stalled in a series of trials that ran into EMC buffers and there is no way that broadband mobile is going to substitute, in the next decade, anyway, for a fixed link to the small office.
The cable revolution has also run out of steam. What we have now is pretty much what we are going to get - there will be no further digging and no expansion of the network, but the cable broadband offering does have the advantage that it competes with ADSL and thus keeps BT honest.
That leaves fibre. But while there is no doubt that a massive fibre-to-the-home programme could solve our access problems far into the future, there is a little matter of cost and a more complex issue of competition.
In universal service terms, the cost of laying fibre to every inhabited building in the country would have to be shared, somehow, among all "subscribers". The last time this was seriously discussed was a decade ago, as The Cabling of Britain, when the cost was estimated at £20bn. Put that in context: BT spends £2bn a year on maintenance of its network. If we had had the bottle to begin the project 10 years ago, we would have finished it by now and the marginal cost would probably have been entirely affordable and could have been swept up in a universal service fund.
However, there are some emerging signs of sensibility and sensitivity. The Radiocommunications Agency, under pressure from industry and its imminent merger into Ofcom, has delayed its threatened auction of the 3.4GHz spectrum - that which could give us point-to-multipoint wireless in the local loop. BT is saying, loudly and clearly, "give us 3.4GHz and we will give you Broadband Britain - we will open it to competition by offering all service providers a wholesale product on the system".
More power to BT's elbow: if ADSL covers 60% of the population, and 3.4GHz covers the next 35%, that would leave only the odd 5% or so to be serviced via the exotic technologies such as satellite and mesh radio.
Meanwhile, the Computer Systems Policy Project (Motorola, Dell Computer, NCR and Intel) has an ambitious broadband vision. It is calling for a national effort to promote broadband deployments like those in South Korea and Sweden. Its report, Building the Foundation of the Networked World: A Vision for 21st Century Wired and Wireless Broadband, said US economic expansion was dependent on broadband growth. It recommended that by the end of 2003, 80% of US homes should be able to get data at 1.5mbps, and 50% of homes should be able to receive data at 6mbps. It also called for nationwide 100mbps access by the end of 2010. Now that's a policy!
What is the UK doing? We are examining aggregating demand as a means of stimulating the market.
The TMA 2002 telecoms conference will take place from 21-23 October in Brighton
David Harrington is former director general of the CMA
Please no more powerful telescopes! If we build a powerful enough one we may find a word in space that says, "Guess" and the scientists would be stymied. They would later find out that our solar system is in a lint ball in the pocket in some teenager's jeans.
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Massive black hole, more than a million times the mass of the Sun
The audio that you hear is a Black Hole from NASA. Gee it sounds soothing to put a baby to sleep, but boy, what it does to Planets!
LONDON (Oct. 16) - Scientists said Wednesday they have discovered at the center of our galaxy a huge black hole, a mysterious celestial object that sucks in everything around it including light.
By observing the orbit of a star around the invisible gravitational field, an international team of scientists has eliminated other possibilities of explaining the phenomenon. 'It is a great step forward,' Dr. Reinhard Genzel, of the Max-Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics near Munich who led the team, told Reuters Wednesday.
'We have been able to exclude some still possible alternative configurations ... there is nothing left that one would consider realistic and possible, other than a black hole.'
Astronomers have been gathering information about black holes, which are detected by measuring their effect on nearby stars or the activity around their edges, for more than 20 years.
There has been growing evidence of a massive black hole, more than a million times the mass of the Sun, in the center of our galaxy and others, but Genzel and his team believe their research is the best proof so far.
'Most astrophysicists would accept that the new data provide compelling evidence that a super-massive black hole exists in the center of the Milky Way,' said Alvio Renzini, a scientist at the European Southern Observatory (ESO) in Chile.
MYSTERIES OF THE UNIVERSE
Black holes, like the one in the center of the Milky Way, are thought to be the remains of dead quasars, the powerful, super-bright hearts of galaxies.
First posited by Albert Einstein, black holes have been described as the ultimate victory of gravity because of their ability to suck in stars and other galactic features.
Genzel and his team, whose research is reported in the science journal Nature, zeroed in on the black hole by analyzing 10 years of data to observe nearly the entire orbit of a star called 'S2' around the black hole.
'This is the only case we know of in all astronomy where such a star is so close and we can observe it. Most of the other stars have orbital periods between hundreds and millions of years,' Genzel said.
S2, which is seven times larger than the Sun and must travel at phenomenal speed to avoid being sucked in by the black hole, has an orbit of about 15 years.
The scientists used the latest technology to study the orbit of S2. They said their measurements rule out a cluster of unusual stars or elementary particles to explain the dark mass and leave little doubt that it is a super-massive black hole.
'Now we know that every big galaxy has a big black hole and was probably formed at the same time and probably with some of the same processes which formed the galaxies themselves,' said Genzel.
'The next thing we all want to understand is what were those processes which allowed these things to form so early and were seeds in the young galaxies when they were formed.'
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U.S. losing to Korea... in broadband?!
Korea 1, U.S. 0. And it's not a soccer score. It's your now and future. It's a large part of why the U.S. economy is stagnant: Lack of vision in government and technology companies. Get over the NASDAQ plunge and focus on today's world: information ubiquity.
Ironic that a country that is home to Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, Steve Jobs, Andy Grove, Bob Metcalfe, Vint Cerf, and dozens of technology leaders (and us!) is behind little old Korea when it comes to the future of consumer media and tech.
How so?
Broadband. Highspeed data connections. It's not about technology, it's about what and how people will live and already do in broadband areas, mostly in Asia.
Information is the global currency, not euros or dollars or yen. The center of information flow is Korea.
And Korea is ahead by years in broadband per capita. Already more than Some 60% of Koreans have broadband. It's so common that people watch TV on a PC as often as a TV set.
Education is driven by broadband in Korea as the government put capital behind highspeed years ago.
Online video gaming is a national pastime for youth.
Yes, geographical obstacles (like sheer size) make the U.S. broadband deployment more difficult. But the world's number one economy needs to keep its leadership in adoption of technology or risk becoming a net exporter of innovation and then laggard as Asia and Europe surpass it in the info age.
California (home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood) is the 4th-largest economy in the world. Tech drives it. But, it lags Korea also.
In the U.S. getting something as simple as DSL installed can take years as the glacial phone giants milk every last ounce of Bell's 100-year old wiring. And not even 60% of Americans have plain vanilla dial up.
It's pathetic in our opinion that these quasi-monopolies such as SBC and Verizon and AT&T take so long and delay the economic benefit of broadband.
Meanwhile, in Korea, more famous for Samsung until now, young and old enjoy one of the world's best economies, owed partly to broadband's ability to deliver education, information, entertainment and the subsequent revenues associated with each.
If you want jobs, growth and recovery in the U.S. then broadband must become a priority for the U.S. and its states. It isn't a magic cure all for the economy but the future is alive and well ... in Korea.
Today it may not be that apparent but to the few who have been to Korea and Tokyo. But in a few short years the digital divide will be clear as Asia and Europe leave the U.S. behind in use of broadband and all the benefits of new ways of information consumption.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/insight/editorial.gsp?id=71304
sorry, something I posted was incorrect.
Had to delete it.
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Good, I would like to see more of that.
And what is wrong with looking for the creep and shooting him?
Oh, Lawyers I forgot.
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I don't have an answer for your question yet and Im mot cranky, just having fun ;)
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Why do people question me why Ray would be doing a meeting in NY. I have not emailed him to confirm yet.
Just go if there is one.
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I guess just the same as in NY.
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I was told that Ray would like to meet with share holders in the Boston aria.
Send me a private message if you would like to attend and ill get more info on his trip.
Thanks
AL
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Is This House Worth $1.2 Million?
No, we don't have a housing bubble yet. But if the frenzy doesn't end soon, we will. Then, watch out.
FORTUNE
Monday, October 28, 2002
By Shawn Tully
In these turbulent times, it's a relief to ponder the things you really can count on. The recently departed, love-'em-or-hate-'em New York Yankees will roll into the playoffs again next season. Our foreign policy will drive the French to distraction. The new Harry Potter book will rule the bestseller list. Sunday night's big guy, Tony Soprano, will keep trudging through therapy. And your house will keep rising in value.
That last point is no trifling matter. Like everyone else, you watched your 401(k) shrink dramatically and cursed the bleeping broker who swore your tech stocks would soon roar back. But your five-bedroom colonial on half an acre doubled in price in just five years, and you're expecting it'll double again in the next five years, sure as Yankee pinstripes in October or Gallic pique.
It probably won't happen. And that's a damn good thing. Put simply, U.S. housing prices are stretching the outer limits of what's reasonable and sustainable. Instead of cooling down, prices keep hurtling upward, defying the laws of economic gravity just as grievously as those unmentionable dot-coms once did.
In other words, what looks like a gift to homeowners today is potentially a recipe for disaster later on: If the boom persists, housing will become so overheated it'll pull the entire economy into dangerous, fragile territory. In a year or two, prices will fall with a thud, unleashing a double-dip recession that will pummel home prices even more. "Every day prices rise, the risk gets greater that a bubble will form--and unwind in an ugly way," says Mark Zandi, an economist with consulting firm Economy.com.
From these heights, it's hard to look down. Since the boom began in 1995, housing prices have jumped 51%, or 32 points above inflation. The run-up has added $50,000 in wealth, on average, for every one of the nation's 72 million homeowners. In many markets the gains are even more extraordinary. In Boston, home prices have risen more than 110% since 1996, to an average of $398,000. In San Francisco and San Jose, a three-bedroom ranch will run you about $500,000, almost twice what it fetched seven years ago. Even in post-Sept. 11 New York City, housing galloped 11% in the year ended June 2002. And amazingly, at those nosebleed levels, prices keep climbing.
Fortunately, it's still too soon to announce the B-word. For the nation as a whole, no housing bubble exists. By FORTUNE's estimates, homes across the country are overvalued by a modest 5% to 10%. But to paraphrase former House Speaker Tip O'Neill, all housing is local: America is a mosaic of urban and suburban areas governed by their own quirky dynamics of employment, incomes, and desirability. That 5%-to-10% figure is a composite of a vast range of markets where values fall above, below, and precisely at the prices the fundamentals would dictate.
Right now, the biggest danger lies mainly with cities on the two coasts--the aforementioned Boston and the San Francisco Bay Area as well as New York, Miami, and Portland, Ore. Each is trapped in a classic paradox: Prices keep booming while jobs are vanishing. Clearly that can't last. The frothy markets are 12% to 22% overpriced, according to a study by Dr. Michael Sklarz of FNIS, a provider of real estate data to lenders and developers. Pricey? Yes. But we're still not talking Nasdaq 5000 or even the real estate market of the early 1980s, when homes in Boston and San Francisco and San Diego were 30% above their basic value. Those were bubbles. We're not there yet.
If housing acts sensibly from here, prices will adjust smoothly by dropping modestly in the strongest markets and moving sideways for two years or so in most places. As the economy recovers, interest rates will inevitably rise from current bargain-basement levels. Homeowners will react to steeper monthly payments logically--by refusing to pay ever higher prices for new homes. (That adjustment has already begun in the commercial market; see The Property Master.)
What that means, of course, is that future returns on your home won't begin to approach the stupendous gains since the mid-1990s. Today most houses are like high-P/E stocks: They're already too expensive to make you a lot of money. The upward march of property taxes--they rose 6.5% last year--isn't helping matters. Over the next five years you'll do well if your house appreciates in the low single digits.
Homes for Sale
San Francisco, California
BOHEMIAN CHIC! This cozy, remodeled Victorian with three bedrooms, two baths, and fireplace won't last.
1996 for $285,000
2002 for $1,195,000
319%
Mill Valley, California
RANCH APPEAL! Basic but classic 1600 sq. ft. starter house in leafy Marin County. A hot ticket!
1997 for $432,000
2002 for $969,000
124%
Newton, Massachusetts
BOSTON BRAHMIN. Quaint 1930's three-bedroom on one-fifth acre of prime suburbia. A charmer!
Worth in 1997: $304,900
2002 for $525,000
72%
Dallas, Texas
LONE-STAR MEDITERRANEAN! A Texas-sized 3600 sq. ft. townhouse in tony Turtle Creek.
1999 for $750,000
2002 for $920,000
23%
http://www.fortune.com/indexw.jhtml?channel=artcol.jhtml&doc_id=209840
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delete
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And now back to our programn.....
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Also brought to you by......
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A word from our sponsors....
"Cola" its the choice of any generation....
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The Chicken
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carlosrv,
I bought at $12.50 and Im crying but I really don't think this is the best time to sell when awaited events are about to happen in the next few months.
Oh, and there is nothing wrong with being laughed at. There will be people laughing to the bank with you when its all over.
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<font face=times><font size=7>Cooper is Superman!
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Able to push data faster and further in a single bound!
I think this one's worth a Boot :)
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Audio test take 1
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How about a 1 mile x 25 story x 3 city block big ship?
Freedom Ship
Freedom Ship's designers originally planned to create an island community to provide Hong Kong-based businesses a place to relocate if the handover of that city to China were to make life difficult for them. When they applied the same model to a moving sea platform, they ended up with what would be the largest ocean-going vessel ever constructed — the minimum requirement for a city at sea.
Stats:
Length: Approximately 1 mile
Width: 3 city blocks (4,320 feet) Height: 25 stories
Weight: 3 million tons
Volume: Titanic, Queen Mary, USS Nimitz and super-tanker Jahre Viking would all fit comfortably inside. Population: 50,000 residents, 15,000 workers, 20,000 visitors/day
Construction: Hull composed of 600 120'x100' steel cells bolted together.
Location: Circles globe every two years
Closest Living Relative: Japan's Megafloat Airport, Tokyo Bay (1km long, 70 meters wide, 20 meters depth) (Series of interlocking pressurized steel boxes)
Power: 100 electric podded propulsers at 3500 horsepower each.
Cost: $9 billion
http://dsc.discovery.com/common/apps/videoops/options.html
Check out the videos, COOL!
Sounds like a good way for Osama and his idiot army to float over to the US and try something LOL
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter wins 2002 Nobel Peace Prize.
BREAKING NEWS from CNN.com Europe:
For the latest news go to http://europe.cnn.com
Friday, October 11, 2002
HEADLINES
US Senate Follows House in Granting President
Bipartisan Authority to Launch War on Iraq
Bush: Days of Iraq Acting as Outlaw State are Coming to an End
Blair Seeks Putin’s Support for New Security Council
Resolution with Military Force Option
US British Warplanes Strike Twice Thursday in
Southern Iraq – Hitting Air-Defense Radar Near Basra,
Air Defense Missile Battery near Talil
Washington Cautions US Overseas Missions against
Possible Wave of al Qaeda Attacks after
Bin Laden’s Senior Lieutenant Zawahri’s Broadcast
Yemeni Hadhramauth-Based “Aden Army”
Linked to al Qaeda Claims Thursday It Bombed
French Supertanker, Because Oil Cargo Was
Destined for US Troops Preparing to Attack Iraq
Read Earlier DEBKAfile Report on incident below
Head of Kuwait’s Grand Mosque
Under Investigation for Allegedly Abetting
Two al Qaeda Terrorists Who Killed One Marine
Tuesday on Failaka Island
Palestinian Leader Abu Mazen Attacks Arafat in
Moscow: Intifada Was Serious Blunder,
Palestinians Must Halt Violence
Thursday, One Israeli Woman Was Killed, Dozens Injured in
Palestinian Suicide Bombing Near Tel Aviv
In Pakistan’s General Election, Musharref’s Party Edges Forward,
Muslim Fundamentalists Perform Strongly
Kashmiri Voters Defeat Ruling Pro-Delhi National Conference Party, Advance Opposition Congress, People’s Democratic Party
Hundreds Killed in Muslim Militant Attacks
To Subscribe to DEBKAfile Intelligence Newsletter,
http://www.debka.com/
Ah, stories of the mother land :) makes me home sick, Not! LOL
Boy O Boy they steal anything that is shinny.
They are smart ones Ill tell ya. There is no way they can get caught with that scam, No Sr. especially if they cruise'n with a 1988 Toyota Corolla with the Xenon head lights on.
Gee, they always said there was more crime being committed in Newark after dark LOL
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Scene missing
this was a tast
this concludes this test
<font face=times><font size=7><font color=red>BOOM!</font color>
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Please direct your you OT questions to the ECS board
while I use this opportunity to post another sound bite :)
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Osama and his Teliband
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Yoo hoo, mister A-rab
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BREAKING NEWS from CNN.com Europe:U.S. House of Representatives votes to give President George W. Bush authorisation for a possible attack on Iraq.
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I can feel it now its just around the corner
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Marvelous! Yes indeed! Simply marvelous!
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Shin Beit Shows Documents Revealing Saddam Paid out $15m to
Palestinian Suicide Killers’ Families in Two Years
Iraqi Ruler Also Awarded $10,000 to Relatives of
Every Israeli Arab Killed in Pro-Palestinian Riots in
October 2000
Four Israelis Injured, One Critically, in Palestinian Drive-by Shooting
Tuesday at West Bank Zif Junction near Hebron
One US Marine Killed, One Injured in
Shootout with Assailants Tuesday on
Kuwaiti Gulf Island of Failaka
First Reports of Two Men Who Fired at Marines from
Civilian Vehicle Killed in Return Fire
Kuwait Calls Attack Terrorist Act by Two of Its Nationals
More Attacks Against US Threatened in New Recording Purporting to
Be al Qaeda’s No. 2 al-Zuwahri Aired by Al Jazeera TV Tuesday Night
Is mikey still here?
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