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News coming? Or are they going to sell this thing back down?
wimike- I think Angelo did do a similar estimate for Seroquel XR on here about a week ago. Maybe he wrote the article or knows who did?
Welcome back Samsa!
Yes Thanks much for the confirmation Angelo! Early May = IPCI Seroquel release!
Samsa- The reason why Seroquel will be much larger revenue source:
1. They are the manufacturer and they get that revenue. They get $0 manufacturing revenue on Focalin.
2. They will be receiving a much better share of the profits on this deal as well. PAR deal was a good deal for PAR and bad deal for IPCI.
3. Seroquel is a bugger market than Focalin.
4. They will have all strength available from get go. Focalin they still only have two strengths available and I estimate that to be less than 50% of the available Focalin market.
5. Cost recovery payments.
All in all, this will be much more revenue than current Focalin sales. My very broad estimate would be $15-30M for IPCI first year. And that is a gross revenue estimate.
Samsa- I agree 100%. This stock continually gets pumped and dumped. It has a reputation for it. I believe it has nothing to do with the company, but just groups with the resources to do it. I am guessing a few that visit this site participate in all these pumps, dumps, rinses and repeats...
Numbers- As I am sure you know, patent claims are the important part of a patent. Examples/specific implementations are usually given but what the invention covers is listed in the claims.
IPCI might not want to give the competition too much on how they plan to actually manufacture the drug. If so, the competition can work at finding ways around the claims listed in the patent.
Cysonic- I see now that it is confirmed that he did not go because of the patent. I was wrong. I guess they are just being cautious. It seems to me all the claims are already public info. I guess he plans to talk more specifically about IPCI's implementation of said claims once the patent is issued.
Crimson- Thank you for clarifying. Too much speculation by others. I don't know if they are trying to worry themselves to death or have some other motive.
Impact- I agree 100% with your statement that the Odidi's do their best to limit dilution. I have seen this over time.
Numbers and Samsa- I think IPCI was pretty clear in the latest presentation that they hope to launch Seroquel XR 180 days after PAR launches. That would likely put an IPCI/MNK launch in early May. If either of you think IPCI can launch sooner, I suggest you contact IPCI and explain the case to them. Like I said, they were pretty clear in the presentation they hope to launch in May but if you know know of provisions that allow them to launch sooner contact IPCI.
I wonder if there is truth in the theory that we did not break through $3.10-$3.20 because of the selling by the offering buyer. It should be interesting to see if he has more shares to sell in the morning or if he has exhausted that supply.
Sprot- Was that you bringing it down slowly at the close? Looks like the tide has turned buddy.
Fred- I sure thought the one slide suggested there may be more future developments/collaborations with MNK.
Notice they mention Mallinckrodt is significant player in opioid space.
Despicable- As much as I'd like to see you be right, we will see downward pressure until there is more mews. This has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the stock... It is just more of the same old games by the same people and a bunch traders that have IPCI on their radar now.
Angelo- That is exactly what I was getting at... The Focalin sales revenue cannot be a benchmark to compare what the revenue will be on all the other ANDAs. IPCI/IPCI shareholders paid for those developments. Also, IPCI probably will manufacture and supply these other generics. That all equates to a much higher percentage of the sales revenue on these.
Angelo- Right on! And don't forget that they will likely manufacture and supply product for most of the generics. That translates into a much larger chunk of the sales revenue than they are currently seeing from the Focalin deal. I was ecstatic when I read they were to be the supplier in the MNK deal. I don't think most people have caught on to how this is a REALLY BIG DEAL and translates to HUGE REVENUE GROWTH over the next several years!
I think the biggest development this week was IPCI announcing they will be a production facility. What I got from this was they will develop as well as manufacture product while they will license out sales and marketing(generics). This is big news, as the producer and supplier of product, they will get a bigger % of revenue! I believe all remaining ANDAs will be handled this way and I think this is far superior to the deal they have in place for Focalin. This is huge step forward and they are a much more diverse company now. Now remember... They are a growing company and things will take time... But slowly and surely revenue will grow and continue to grow! And everyone knows growth companies can experience huge upswings in PPS.
wimike- lets hope the guy selling the offering is finished soon. And hopefully the swarm of daytraders moves on to the next victim.
Oregon- What TREND said may very well happen. Traders are all over this thing like a pack of hungry coyotes... They take their gaps very seriously and they are doing everything in their power to fill that gap. The other thing is some of the people that bought the offering at $1.60 are rumored to be selling out large positions right now. I am guessing that is why we can't make it past $3.20... A 100% gain in 6 months on a few million shares is something pretty hard to pass up.
Numbers- Interesting post. I guess we will know early next month...
Until we lose the pack of hungry coyotes, they are going to swing this thing between the technical resistance points. They are not going to let this break out. A big buyer could change that.
Fabius- I hope you took the opportunity to buy shares when they were under $2 earlier this year. That is when I added quite a bit. Good luck to you as well! And one other thing, I would not be surprised to see a slight pull back after they announce earnings. Like Samsa said, that is the usual game. However, the current situation is different than in past and I am not completely sure what will happen.
Samsa- Agreed... The market cap of Eaglet higher than IPCI is a joke. The other problem we have right now is a bunch of day traders have moved in like a pack of coyotes. I think they will move on if volume subsides.
Fabius- The only thing going on with IPCI is them executing their plan. I am personally happy with the progress as IPCI does tend to move slow. Please remember they are a very small company...
Now my opinion on why we have not broken out... A lot of day traders have shown up that trade purely on technicals. They probably close out all positions over night. So what I feel they are doing is moving this price between the resistance levels and switching back and forth from long and short multiple times per day. As you can see, we cannot break through around $3.20. That is a very tough resistance point for us now and lots of selling up there. So all that being said, until those guys move on or a big buyer moves in will to pay much more per share, we will be stuck. The good news is, that each catalyst did move us up and the tend is upwards. Another catalyst could help us bust through that resistance point and maybe then we hit $4.
Angelo- Fishing with family is far more important than watching this all day... Good luck!
Uptrend is in place and I think we will see a sustained uptrend. I feel a big jump coming in the coming weeks. Remember they need to shake the tree and when it is time, it will move.
Tekterra- 100% agree, the Odidi's are not ready to sell at this time.
Looks like Handa, Mylan, Accord and IPCI all have tentative approval as of now.
The usual reaction to financials is a PPS drop.
Like Angelo said yesterday... The same 500,000 shares traded 15 times...
tavoo- For once I kind of agree with you. Also lots of traders and scalpers latched on to this recently. They are playing it both ways. Take a look at messages on twitter from yesterday, many were switching long and short minutes apart.
Sparky- I would like to see the people doing the manipulation get caught short but they likely will not. I suspect most of this is intraday trading and they close out positions overnight such not to get hit with a catalyst.
I believe that some other manufacturer has the 400mg exclusivity. But I do not know who this is. Maybe someone else can share this info??? Good news is Par probably won't play games and will launch all doses they can on 11/1. That puts us out to May 2017 for full approval and commercialization.
CIronman- This always happens with IPCI. Nothing new.
I disagree. Seroquel XR will be partnered. Par has exclusivity on all doses other than 400mg. They will start selling on November 1. In early May we will get full approval and start selling with our chosen partner. It should be no problem to partner this at good terms for IPCI. So there certainly is speculative value in this approval. There are many traders working IPCI down right now. I think once it stabilizes, long traders will come in and it may move up again. My guess is they take it down to Fridays close. After that, who knows?
First Filer Info:
Handa Pharmaceuticals Announces Acquisition and License Agreement with Par Pharmaceutical for Its First-to-File ANDA for AstraZeneca’s SEROQUEL XR®
October 29, 2012
Handa Pharmaceuticals, LLC ("Handa"), a specialty pharmaceutical company based in Fremont, California, today announced that it has entered into an exclusive acquisition and license agreement with Par Pharmaceutical, Inc. for Handa's Abbreviated New Drug Application ("ANDA") for quetiapine fumarate extended-release tablets, the generic version of AstraZeneca’s SEROQUEL XR®. Handa believes it is the first applicant to file an ANDA containing a paragraph IV certification for the 50 mg, 150 mg, 200 mg and 300 mg strengths of the product, which would potentially provide 180 days of marketing exclusivity. According to IMS Health data, annual U.S. sales for these strengths of Seroquel XR® are approximately $808 million. The ANDA also includes the 400 mg dosage strength.
Under the terms of the agreement, Handa has received a payment from Par for the ANDA, giving Par the exclusive rights to market, sell and distribute quetiapine fumarate extended-release tablets in the U.S. under the ANDA, subject to its final approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Handa will receive a percentage of profits from the sales of the product. Under the terms of a settlement agreement with AstraZeneca, Par has been assigned a license to enter the U.S. market with quetiapine fumarate extended-release tablets on November 1, 2016 or earlier under certain circumstances.