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FRE and FNM looking weak
The price has broken below the lower trendline on FRE of its ending diagonal. Here come the $40s.
Such a fast price fall for the mortgage companies would send shockwaves in the bond market. Maybe bonds and stocks tank together in WAVE A?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=FRE,uu[w,a]wacayyay[df][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La12...
Long Term Bonds and Equities.
When the 1929 stock market collapse began, bonds made one more rally while stocks began their first bear move. If the Dow did form a truncated 5th wave from the October 2003 lows, then it is very realistic that investors will be seeking safety in bonds. New highs in bond prices will be tested. Over the last 13 years, 30 yr bond prices have been very choppy. It almost looks like a bearish wedge (ending diagonal in elliott waves terms) with one more advance to go. The aftermath is a post-ending diagonal bond crash. The Wave A of the bond bear should coincide with Wave C of the equities market.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/intermarket3.htm
GOOG TOPPED OUT!!!
A 5% pullback in less than 10 hours is very weak. It's an outside down day.
EBAY didn't help either.
Real Estate bubble popping
Charts for Morgan Stanley REITs show MACD and Stochastics rolling over and giving SELL signals on the weekly charts. Ewaves are giving the same long term SELL.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=KIM,uu[w,a]wacayyay[df][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La12...
GOOG Ewaves
It looks like the wave from Jan 6 lows is either a little wave 2 of a larger wave 1 down or a little wave 5 of a larger wave 5 UP. The earnings announcement this week would be a perfect backdrop for top to be made. The choppy trading from Jan 6th indicates a little wave 5 up would be an ending diagonal. Wether is fails to make a new all-time high will indicate the strength of the following downtrend. This is the 3rd test of the $200 area of resistance. Short after a new high or if the price falls below $190.
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=goog&data=Z60&date=011505&den=HIGH&evnt=ADV...
London FTSE and German DAX look like they have topped out and now its time to look for confirmation. Stochastics and MACD are giving sell signals.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ftse,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ftse,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La...
Maybe INTC helps NAZ consolidate more
The NASDAQ low broke the Friday lows today, but not enough to shout "SHORT!" THere is still a chance for a 40 point rally to the 2115 level a fibonacci retracement.
If the price drops below today's lows tomorrow, then "SHORT!"
NAZ 2115 target rationale: Reprise
The NAZ close 4 pointts shy of my target of 2115. There is still a chance this finished wave a of 2 up. The afternoon selloff puts a rally to 2120 proportional with wave a.
A little down tomorrow and then a lot more up.
Excellent Elliott Wave Charts by a Pro!!!
http://www.safehaven.com/article-2438.htm
This will help some of the newbies get a better idea what elliott waves are about. Remember, these charts are one group's opinion.
Food for thought: Factory Orders
The latest data for factory orders shows the reading to be higher than in 2000, yet neither equity markets nor bond yields have made similar highs. This is a major contradiction to the mechanized financial model the general population believes.
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/FactoryOrdersChart.asp
NAZ 2115 target rationale
The Naz top was 2191.60. What I'm calling the bottom is 2076.69. A fibonacci retracement of 38% puts the retracement to the 2115 - 2120 area. The elliott wave structure shows that level coincides with the retracement of wave 4 up of larger wave 1 down. For the double zigzag I suggest is advancing from 2076, wave c = wave a would wind up at the 2115-2120 level.
I won't discount the possibility of rally to new highs as M3 money supply surged in Dec '04. The market has lagged the Fed stimulus. This stimulus is actually a wave 5 following a traingle wave 4. The Federal reserve is "pushing on a string" more than ever, and is about to give up!
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$NASX&data=Z15&date=010805&den=MEDHI&evnt=A...
NASDAQ comp in a wave 2 bounce
This morning little wave 5 of larger wave 1 finished. Since then a zigzag unfolded. It looks really weak as does the afternoon selling into the closing bell. It would not surprise me if the NASDAQ comp made its way to 2115 as wave c of a double zigzag on Monday before large wave 3 begins.
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$NASX&data=Z15&date=010705&den=HIGH&evnt=AD...
FTSE finished Wave 5
get ready for a downward move next week.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ftse,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La...
The DAX has wiggled to a new high as well, probably and ending diagonal.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$dax,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La1...
Frank: Wave 5
I think wave 5 straddled Wednesday and Thursday. The rest is either a VERY weak larger wave 2 zig-zag, or the beginnings of an a-b-c flat. The first target for flat C is 1578.
GOOG: Drop possible.
This is on the basis a wave 4 symmetric triangle formed after the 1st time it broke $200.
The alternate count would mean a small wave 4 just completed. And a wave 5 up to follow.
Initial Jobless Claims Surge
The Initial Jobless Claims surged to the area of the 52 week highs. The Elliott waves from the 52 week lows show a short wave 1 and a very choppy, complex, and running wave 2. In more familiar terms an inverse head and shoulder is completing the right shoulder and the neckline is being tested.
An uptrend in initial jobless claims corelated strongly with the 2000 NASDAQ top.
MrCash: Wave 4
Alright, I'll consider wave 4 is a possibility. That means the DOW is making an ending diagonal that began in October. It will still be nasty to the downside either way you look at it.
NAZ wave 1 down finished around noon today.
The rest of the day looked more like waves a and b of a flat. Expect a rally some point tomorrow that will carry above today's highs.
GOOG rally over!!!
Wave count and stochastics indicate top is in. Short with wreckless abandon.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=GOOG,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La1...
Dow wave 4 Triangle Ended on Friday.
This morning's sharp rise at the opening is typical behavior of a wave 5 following a triangle. Great time to get out of the market as longs get trapped with false hopes.
Dax UP, FTSE DOWN, Futures bright...
but a strong opening will be met with the upper channel line.
The Dax and FTSE heading in opposite directions indicate the rising tide in Germany isn't raising the UK boats. Typical topping action.
Little triangle done?
I don't know. wave d of the triangle could have been a triangle as well. If wave e of a wave 4 triangle finished midday, then wave 5 truncated and the market is about to turn lower sharply. MACD and Stochastics are giving sell signals.
What I don't like is the way KIM sold off the second half of the day. KIM, a REIT, also had above average volume, and heavy selling in the final hour. Real estate is one of the last bubbles to pop. Today may just be signalling pin hitting the real estate bubble.
Dell made one last attempt to make new highs, but not the $43 level I was looking for a couple weeks ago. Maybe DELL truncated?
Something doesn't feel right about the wave counts. What's worse is the financial media. The Santa Claus rally was never on the front page news, never materialized, and the disappointment never reported. The news and wave counts are coherent.
frankp3, I agree about triangle.
That means there should be a quick thrust when the market opens to a new 52 week high in the Dow and NASDAQ before the longer term trend reverses.
Freddie Mac
FRE has nearly finish an ending diagonal that began in June 2003. The pullback from $72 should find support around $45.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=FRE,uu[w,a]dacayyay[df][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La12....
We KNOW sister Fannie is in trouble, but if the favorite child falls, so does the entire market.
Dr-J quote:
"The greater the risk, the greater the reward"
Treating the quote as casue and effect is part of the problem with today's markets. Complete fear has been cast aside even though warning signs flash brightly.
A better quote would be, "Neither a borrower nor lender be."
10 Yr Treasury
Bonds have sold off more agressively that the rise in equities. None of the media has picked up on this.
LoooongDriiiiiive63
The German Dax looks like an ending diagonal, as does the NASDAQ. The London FTSE looks to be wrapping up a wave 5. The Dow needs a little more time to finish, so your call for a selloff early next week is well made. I would expect continued choppiness in the US markets.
German DAX is near the end of an ending diagonal.
Others would call it a bearish wedge.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$dax,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La1...
The US markets are due to correct as well.
The yield on the 10 year notes is causing the upper bollinger band to expand to the upside. Notice how the financial news didn't report a rising interest rate was the "cause" of equity sell-off. Instead, a tsunami was the cause, even though most of the sell-off was late in the day after the tsunami occurred.
FRE ready to fall.
Despite the anticipation of FRE taking over the business of sister Fannie, FRE is showing a bearish wedge/ ending diagonal.
Stochastics are very overbought. Volume spiked to the upside, but this isn't to be taken as a sign of a breakout.
It's not going to be pretty the next couple of weeks
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=fre,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La12...
WMT
WalMart is at a point in its consolidation where the next move could be a wave 3 down. The bollinger bands are starting to pinch. The MACD turned away from a buy signal. The Stochastics are on the oversold side though. The next downside move WMT makes will be at least $9.60 ($6 *1.618) to the downside.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=wmt,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La12...
Re: PZ or not PZ
Ewaves look like a reversal at hand.
Stochastics indicates a top
MACD declining on slower rising price.
Bollinger bands indicate a dramatic price move ahead.
Markets around the world and much of the investment spectrum are in sync for a market decline.
Commodities have topped out. Falling commodities are DEFLATIONARY.
What's another little wave among Ewavers?
It looks like there were extra wave that needed to finish. Since the DOW was only 40 pts frmo 52 week high, there is still a good possibility of a new 52 week high. A drop below 10400 would be good sign of a reverse of short term waves. A drop below 9700 would be confirmation of longer term wave top in place
The DAX is forming an ending diagonal, and the FTSE has not retested DEC '04 highs this week. A turn in the world markets is likely.
Dow Rogue Wave turns into Tsunami
The wave count cleared up today. Until 2 PM a smaller wave 4 triangle unfolded. At 2 PM a smaller wave 5. 2:30ish was a larger wave 4 diagonal which is an alternate to the flat on Friday DEC 10. Then a larger wave 5 rallied to the daily high.
The Tsunami is based on the perspective that the rally from Oct '02 lows is a wave 5 that truncates the highs in year 2000. On top of that, the rally from last week's lows is a 5th wave that truncated the rally from Oct '04. This double truncation at larger wave degrees signals a very strong drop in prices should follow. Initial support is 9000ish, a 61.8% drop from today's highs to the Oct '02 lows.
Rouge Wave
Prechter was completely caught off guard with Monday's price move that he didn't show any possible wave count in his short term update.
I think there is a good possibility last Friday's high was a B wave in a running flat on the DOW. That would mean today should move sharply down at the open and claw its wave up the rest of the day, possible to a new 1 month high. The FTSE shows what I mean.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=%5Eftse
Other markets are not confiming the DOW. The DAX is looking toppy, the FTSE has retraced less than half of it's 1 month high. The Nikkei is still moving relatively sideways.
Get off the elevator.
Re: Mitch M
I can agree with Mitch's position that Wednesday could be the top of something based on Ewaves. Where I disagree is I think Monday will be a wave 1 of 3 down. The media will attribute it to rising oil and slower holliday sales. It would make the third straight weekend of disappointing sales. The selling continues into early Tuesday. Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday is a wave 2 of 3 bounce, but should not break above the close on 12/10. Then late Wednesday/ Thursday a wave 3 of 3 could start.
There are support levels for the Dow at 10400, 10200, and 10100.
DELL Near top
This past weekend I posted that I thought there might be a little more rally left in DELL. Today a new 52 week high was made. This may or may not be THE top. This last wave would look better with a another little push to another 52 week high tomorrow.
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=DELL&data=Z30&date=120904&den=HIGH&evnt=ADV...
The daily stochastics continue to be in overbought levels. Bollinger bands are pinching and today's rally retreated from the upper band. MACD has a slight declining slope yet the price has gone up. This is a classic divergence near tops.
On a day filled with such negative news in the tech sector, DELL really held its own. Since the NASDAQ was unable to make a new 52 week high along with DELL, DELL's high is unconfirmed. The larger tech sector is lagging DELL, probably in a wave 2.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=dell,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La1...
XLNX ALTR
Thanks, now I'm dreaming of sugarplums and candy canes.
Hang Seng about to drop.
All the technical charts are signalling a turn lower. The significance is the Hang Seng has been viewed as going much higher with China's booming economy. A pullback will be a "surprise" to many.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$hsi,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La1...
FTSE
The bollinger bands are starting to open and the price is in the lower band. There is a good chance the FTSE will drop quickly the next few days.
The Dow continued to pinch today, so the potential for a sharp move remains.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ftse,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La...
IDBE, Don't touch it.
Ewaves look complete for a top. Look for a 5 wave down for confirmation of a top. The short at the end of a rally that looks like a zigzag or flat that retraces 38%, 50% or 62%.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=IDBE,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dd][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La1...