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I completely agree it's confusing I believe we need some clarification on this. At first I thought it was for APT but now I'm starting to believe it was for FROZ's financials.
I wish we would get some clarity from APT IR on this. I have heard so many theories on here on when people think it's going to end and how the calculation works. My gosh as much as the volume has been the past couple of weeks and the way they took the pps down, one would think it has be pretty much over.
Somebody posted from one of their recent PR's that it stated 20 million for FY 2013 and 68 million for 2014 (projection). I'm not sure if that was a typo or not. If that is indeed true, I see this between .03 - .05 by end of June. Hopefully there will not be too much debt shown on the Fins. I'm guessing profitability won't be as good as people were originally expecting. I am expecting them to become more efficient as they expand the business model and increase international sales.
Usually people put a future multiplier on earnings between approximately 5 - 10 times current earnings or revenues. They have doubled revenues from year to year so that is definitely a good sign. It sounds like they are having issues with cash flows. In manufacturing, you have to fork up a lot of cash for raw materials and there is probably a decent delay before you sell to retailers. Hopefully the settling of the receivables with IR will clear up that debacle. Anyhow if they pull down 40 million on average going forward and you multiply that by a conservative 5 times you come up with 200 million market cap. Based on 4.5 billion outstanding shares that should put the pps at approximately .045. All depends on profitability and debt.......
I'm hoping they come out with some aggressive revenue or earnings projections.
Very well said. Interesting that the other user posted a PR with 68 million revenue projection for 2014. If that's truly the case, this could easily be a dime stock before long..... I agree, we need to get clarification on this.
I'm getting my fiscal years mixed up. I thought they were expected to make 20 million in 2013 but I think you're right, it's 2014. If they project 40 million for 2015, that would still be stellar considering we are valued at less than a penny right now. I think a nickel would be a realist goal in the short term depending on how much debt is left.
Where are you getting $68 million in revenue for 2013? I thought the consensus was more like 20 million in revenue for 2013. And one billion outstanding shares.....we have already discussed this and noted that it's approximately 4 - 4.5 billion right now. It seems like they have doubled their revenue from year to year so I wouldn't be surprised to see projections of around $40 million for 2014 which would still be stellar. I think the Fins aren't going to be as good as people were originally thinking due to profitability. Sure they have high revenues, but I think overhead will lower net income dramatically, hence having to take the Ironridge deal. I don't expect debt to be completely gone after the Iron deal, but hopefully there will be very little.
What I am expecting is aggressive earnings projections for future years as they expand their international business and become more efficient with business operations. I also would like to see a reduction in the A/S. I think we could see .03 - .05 by the end of June. Short of them reducing the outstanding shares or announcing some huge contract with a customer I can't see .10 in the short term. But who knows....this is the OTC after all. All it takes is MOMO and some hype. I think we can all agree this stock is way oversold down here due to panic selling, misinformation, and dilution. Unles they still have massive amounts of debt still, and more bad news surprises, I don't see why we shouldn't be valued at .02 right now leading the fins release.
Agreed, it looks like dilution has pretty much dried up. We can't afford anymore major surprises like last week. We have already lost a lot of investors' confidence. I think we will be alright, it just going to take longer than people expected. It seems like we have received a lot of bad news lately. It's time for some good news moving forward.....
I think we are setup for a good week next week. Yesterday and today have been complete opposite of earlier this week and last week. There would be major dumping going on towards the end of the day. Past couple of days the buying has been really strong towards the end of the day.
I'm hoping we get good news from this shareholder letter that is supposed to come out. That might just get us back to .017 support by the end of next week or at least close. I still think .03 - .05 is possible by end of June of course dependent upon the Fins. My prediction is that Fins are not going to be as good as people were thinking originally. I think profitability is going to be a little disappointing even though revenues will be good. I'm hoping future earning projections will more than offset that and create some good hype again. I think as they continue to expand business and move away from the startup and the research and development phase, they will become a lot more efficient, hence create better profit. Also, I think the international sales should hopefully ramp up.
Which might be a good thing. The longer we consolidate at this level, the less likely to drop next week and make a push to a penny plus next week.
What's your plan then? Sell and watch it maybe dip a little during consolidation period and then buy back in on anticipation of fins causing it to run again?
Yes indeed. I like where this heading. I just have a feeling we are going to get some strong buying pressure towards the afternoon.
I have a feeling we get a second surge going this afternoon to drive us above .0071 level where we should close above. That would setup for a good next week. Still greatly oversold at these prices. People have to remember they are expected to generate approximately 20 million in revenues for 2014. The market cap is very low.
There may be a little more dilution coming, but it has to be almost over at this point. In other words it won't be that extreme compared to last week. Plus I believe they want to sell at a higher price than this. I believe a lot of the flippers will want this to go back to .0012+ before selling. Then we have the issue of profits being taken. Hopefully like you have stated, they release a good PR before then whether it be the stockholder letter or something else. We need a good PR with some meat to it to get us back above the .017 level again. I still think we could have a shot to get above that level before the Fins are released. The problem right now is that we seem to have a lot of flippers and not a long term investors. We need APT to regain stockholder's confidence again however that may be. We shall see...
A lot of misunderstanding today that caused A LOT of panic selling. Dilution should pretty much be done with.
Per the 8-k this morning it states "Aronson’s report on the financial statements for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2013 and 2012 contained no adverse opinion or disclaimer of opinion, and were not qualified or modified as to uncertainty, audit scope or accounting principle, other than for a going concern."
Only concern I have regarding today is from the 8-k this morning regarding the "going concern" issue from their audited financial statements for fiscal years 2013 and 2012. This makes me wonder about their profitability. I'm guessing the main cause for the "going concern" issue is regarding their accounts receivables being tied by up Ironridge and cash flow issues regarding the time they have to front cash at the beginning to purchase raw materials to the time they collect money from customers. I believe this will be rectified going forward and as they continue to expand and become more efficient with their business. Thoughts anybody?
Only concern I have regarding today is from the 8-k this morning regarding the "going concern" issue from their audited financial statements for fiscal years 2013 and 2012. This makes me wonder about their profitability. I'm guessing the main cause for the "going concern" issue is regarding their accounts receivables being tied by up Ironridge and cash flow issues regarding the time they have to front cash at the beginning to purchase raw materials to the time they collect money from customers. I believe this will be rectified going forward and as they continue to expand and become more efficient with their business. Thoughts anybody?
Only concern I have regarding today is from the 8-k this morning regarding the "going concern" issue from their audited financial statements for fiscal years 2013 and 2012. This makes me wonder about their profitability. I'm guessing the main cause for the "going concern" issue is regarding their accounts receivables being tied by up Ironridge and cash flow issues regarding the time they have to front cash at the beginning to purchase raw materials to the time they collect money from customers. I believe this will be rectified going forward and as they continue to expand and become more efficient with their business. Thoughts anybody?
Has that feeling like it wants to break the resistance by eod.
You're not giving up are you? I honestly think they have some good news in store for us still. It just been a nasty couple of weeks.
This seems to be oversold big time based on misinformation. I think we might have reached the bottom today.
What is our outstanding share structure now?
5 additional billion or 5 billion all together for outstanding shares?
Bottom seems near.
I still think the potential is there the way they keep increasing revenue from year to year. Plus international sales should really start heating up for them. I sold too waiting to buy back at a lower price and accumulate more shares.
It's bouncing alright back and fourth. I'm not sure if this is a good sign that we have reached the bottom or if it's fake.
I personally think the majority of the dilution is over at this point. I think if this dips any lower, it's based on recent news and panic selling. A bounce is due shortly back up above .0071 or .009 and then sideways trading until fins are released.
I still believe in the company and feel there is a lot of potential with the way they have grown revenue from year to year. In addition, it sounds like they have strong international sales coming shortly. I'm nervous about profitability and debt. If the Ironridge deal truly cleaned most of the big debt up then we should be ok. I'm not too worried about the small loan they announced on the 8-k today. They need to reduce the A/S. If those things can happen I still believe this could be a .03+ company by July.
I sold in the mid .007s today. Waiting for the bottom. Still think there is any chance we reach .03 by end of June?
Best news we could receive at this point is that debt is pretty much cleaned up and a reduction of A/S. We are due for a positive PR at some point. Even though they are making millions in revenues, I think people are worried about profitability at this point. As long as we can show positive net income and good revenue projections for future years, I still think we could see .03 - .05 in short term.
I'm not sure we have much dilution going on today. It's more based on the 8-k news and major panic selling.
As fast as this is going down there could be a major bounce today or tomorrow.
.007 might just be the very bottom. I sold in the high .007s today. I will buy back in if we can close above .007 and show some stability.
And that was based on an officially PR released announcing the reverse merger and a little about APT. Think of what we could do with some hard audited numbers on the fins.
Exactly. I believe we ran from .009 to .03 within 2 or 3 days during the last big run.
Yes right now my ThinkorSwim platform which seems to be pretty up-to-date in calculating market cap based on number of outstanding shares, is showing 34 million approximately. Most people think APT will pull down 20 million in revenue in 2014 and based on the way they continue to increase revenue from year to year, in addition to international sales growing, I wouldn't be surprised to see around 40 million as projection for 2015. Most stocks trade at a multiple of earnings. If financials come out with little debt and good revenues, I could see a justification for a 200 million market cap. Especially if they mention an A/S reduction in the coming month. The only bottleneck APT seems to have right now is keeping up with product demand.
We definitely still have a ton of interest in this stock as this is one of the top followed boards. I feel like a lot of people are on the sidelines waiting for confirmation of the bottom. Hopefully we bounce hard once people start jumping back in.
And when I'm talking fundamentals I'm referring to market cap. We are valued at approximately 34 million according to the thinkorswim platform which I believe is pretty up to date with shares outstanding. Most people are thinking just for 2014 we should be pulling down 20 million in revenues. Considering how fast international sales are growing and how much they have increased revenues from year to year, we could see 40-50 million projections in 2015. Usually stocks trade at a multiple if earnings. And yet we are valued at a ridiculous 34 million market cap.
I know stocks that similar share structures that don't even have a tenth of revenues of what apt is pulling down and yet are valued higher. Very frustrating. Hopefully fins will be mostly clean of debt a month from now and we run to a nickel + which is what I think a more true valuation should be.
So you think even with those extremely high volume days last week we are not close. How low do you see us going? The lower we go, fundamentals have to kick in and start scooping up dilution shares at a higher rate.
Just curious, what's your take? Do you think the majority of dilution is almost over?
So you're saying dilution will continue for 3 more months? Or you using 3 months to calculate additional shares they might receive at the end of the 3 month period?