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I've looked into this a ton. One of the most fascinating topics out there, I think. The history of it, etc... I have to keep two minds about it, though. One is normal every day mind. The other understands the greater picture, in historical perspective. In that 2nd mind, I am entirely with the tinfoil hat people as they might be called. This system could be the single biggest fraud perpetrated on human beings in all of history. But in every day world, I just try to understand the macro trends and directions as best I can, in order to make some $ by sometimes getting things right. What are the 3 countries not run by the same central banking cabal you mentioned?
Whoever said ends with intentional collapse, please rephrase and repost. I didn't get to read the full post before it was removed but Part of me has always been tempted to agree with such a conclusion. I don't know if you withdrew your post or if it was flagged, but if you could repost and rephrase a bit, I'd be interested to read it. Thank you.
Who'll be the buyer? If jobs keep faltering? MBSs will be perceived as significantly riskier than many potential buyers would be willing to accept. So the Fed will just hold them for how long? Can thr Fed just keep expanding its balance sheet forever with no serious consequences? I doubt it. Are they really willing to absorb the MBS risk as very few (if any) in the private sector are willing to do so?
And realistically, how does all of this resolve eventually?
In a truly free market, no GSEs exist at all. There'd be no FNMA or FMCC. For good or bad, that's what it'd be. In a free market, there would be no entity out there that is guaranteed to buy mortgages from banks. Think about any other aspect of our economy. In our relatively free market economy, Is there an entity out there that is guaranteed to be a buyer of, say, the widgets a company makes? No. The company makes widgets hoping to sell them bc they are good widgets and there is demand for them. There is no promise from anywhere that they will, in fact, be purchased. That's the risk the company takes. The GSEs are, for good or bad, at least a form of gvt intrusion into a free market. Not arguing for or against that fact here. Just stating facts as I see them.
New American Dream is simply: be debt free.
But you're right. It should be to be free to run your own affairs, business, etc, without unreasonable confiscation of property via gvt fiat, without unreasonable taxation or regulation.
GSEs today: classic example of a Buffets plays. We have no evidence or info telling us he's a buyer or holder right now. It's pure speculation. But if "little buffet" Berkowitz is in it now, and Buffet in the past has lamented his mistake selling fnma, then isn't it a safe bet he's in this right now? Or at very least he's hovering, getting info, and Waiting for an entry point? Either way, he'll almost certainly be a player if / when this pops.
$2 trades? Please elaborate. Sounds great. What broker, etc. tia
Comments? Good points here from foscofrank. #17 offers a better, simpler explanation of the purpose of the 3rd amendment than I've heard before.
But I'd like to read a clarification of his #6 and 7 about the warrants. See below and feel free to reply with your thoughts:
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From foscofrank
A FEW SOLID FACTS ABOUT COMMON AND PERFERRED SHARES OF FNF
1. They only have no rights under the Gov written documents.
2. They have rights under the constitution
3. The courts found that FNF are private shareholder firms
4. All stocks offered publicly have ownership rights period
5. Does not matter when you bought this stock the rights of ownership per share the same PRE 2008 or Post 2008 for all share classes.
6. The higher the common share price the lower the 79.9% potential senior perferred share conversion will be.
7. If Congress voted to by 79.9% of FNF it would take a vote and the stock price would soar cutting ownership conversion way down.
8. All cases though claims are for prior to 2008 all have same impact for those who own post 2008 as the stock is the same stock then as it is now.
9. There is no dilution effect on this stock UNTILL warrants are purchased and issued - that is a fact
10. Yes shareholder rights were transferred to the conservator NOT end indefinitely!
11. The stock has book value now that the bail out is paid back.
12. The rights of shareholders go beyond any Gov document written or the courts would not have taken the cases.
13. No stock holder on the OTC or NYSE or NASDAC can be taken by the Gov without compensation period.
14. If the Gov was going to wind down it would have happened already.
15. If they could not get a majority vote on winding down during the worst times how can they get it now?
16. Nobody in their right minds would agree these stocks have zero value now that NETZERO has been accomplished.
17. FNF paying all this money through the sweep amendment was a play to get all money back before legal proceedings would take place cutting the Gov out of getting fully repaid fast.
18. If the GOV does not respond on Dec 9 then they want a judgement to release
19. If the GOV responds with no solid arguments other than normal cry baby tax PAYOR claims they loose before they are even in court. Less
Report TOS
in 10yrs banks'll be the too-est-bigger-to-failest banks ever!
Wow, the 1st gvt agency saying release FNMA? It's the first agency to day anything like that isn't it? Yes, release and "no more gvt support needed" are two different things, I know. But we've not really seen this kind of direct language from any gvt agency before, as far as I know. Looks good to me.
I've worried about this for a while. Agree with Stockman. I came to FNMA last year as a macro play. Like most, I saw that the QE $ would likely go into house-buying eventually, etc., and that FNMA would be hard to replace. Part of my thought was also that, though I hate the way the Fed is printing $ like it's going out of style, one of the places where we would probably see that money go also happens to be a politically sponsored entity, and the gvt is currently in an incredibly expansion-oriented state, so they'll never get rid of FNMA and replace it with private money. That last part may or may not turn out to be true, but it's a safe bet DC will struggle to find a better setup than FNMA that's also going to be accepted by both parties. I thought of FNMA as a risk in the sense that it'd potentially be a place that just sucks up all the QE and bubble $. But even if that ends up being true, it's still incredibly undervalued. All of that is of course outside of the issue of cship, which is the primary risk. In a more normal time, one might view FNMA in the simple macro way i described here. But cship and the takings, the sweep, etc, will likely rule the result either way. If shareholders aren't screwed, we'll eventually see this ticker valued correctly. And even if we see another housing downturn, pps will be higher than today if the company is released.
That's always amazed me too. There's probably a detailed plan for what price point they want it to be at for each day until potential release.
Ha thanks Crawford. I wasn't worried, but it's good to hear back from ya. I don't have a PM account, so let's get to the relevant topic at hand today. FNMA.
Have you heard if / when Nader will appear on Fox today? I thought I saw info this past weekend that said he'd appear today on Fox (I assume fox business channel).
Winter market slows for sure. Maybe it doesn't quite "shut down". But look at housing sales. Look at the history of price for any house on zillow or any source, and you'll see the price oscillates with the seasons. Summer prices are always higher. Winter prices are the lowest. Anyone looking for a good deal on a house might consider shopping in the winter, even if there might be fewer houses on the market in the winter.
What time is Nader on Fox today? Heard he'll be on. Anyone think it'll cause a little pps bump?
If court tosses 2008 agreement, are warrants voided? Now there's a thought for us longs, eh? I'm also just thinking out loud here, hoping some will weigh in with more informed opinions. It's just a hypothetical. But I can think of a few legal reasons a court could justify throwing out the entire 2008 agreement.
-gvt's self-dealing and leaving shareholders (a 3rd party not consulted at all about the fate of their property) out of the decision entirely. That is, afaik, illegal. See Epstein's analysis.
-gvt forcing the signing of the deal under duress (read Paulson's book for proof of duress), which is another cause for voiding contracts.
Those are just 2 things that could potentially, in a fair world at least, void the entire original 2008 agreement. Now, if it were voided, wouldn't a court logically also void the warrants that were created out of thin air, by the terms of the voided deal? This would mean logically a release from cship without any dilution. Is this purely a fantasy? Or is there any reason to think it's within the realm of possibility? I mean, a court could void the 2008 deal but let the gvt keep all the dividends it's received. That seems like a very fair way of resolving this mess. How realistic is this scenario? Please offer opinions, anyone.
Thanks Crawford& Paula for bringing back Epstein's info to this board. As seen below where i paste one of my posts from July 24, #95615, in a discussion with Kylie on Epstein's explanation of the gvt's illegal "double dealing", Epstein's expertise, info and analysis reveals our gvt at its worst, and gives FNM longs reason to count on courts. Mr.Fence's post #91603 on July 16, 2013 pasted Epstein's analysis. And Thanks to Paula for posting Epstein's analysis again on this board, bc it's proof the gvt has painted itself into a corner via illegal actions.
Instructions for finding the audio of Epstein's analysis in soundcloud are below:
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Re: KylieM Post# 95600
Listen to the Rich Epstein interviews from last week and last weekend. I really think those interviews will answer a lot of your questions. You ask "why" this and that regarding what the gvt did to fnma, etc. Epstein is a big shot lawyer academic who's consulted some hedge funds about the legalities and lack of legal precedent for what the federal gvt did in 2008 and 2012. The details will probably shock you. It was pure unadulterated theft. It was 2 gvt entities (in a case of "self dealing") signing a deal that takes the property of a 3rd party (shareholders) without even involving that 3rd party in the decision in any way! They shut out the board of directors and everything. Listen to those interviews. One can be found in the john batchelor show's podcasts. I think it aired last saturday night. The other can be found at soundcloud.com by searching for the Hoover Institution and then looking through their posts and finding Rich Epstein. Look for Fannie and Freddie in the title. They "why" of it all is pretty simple: theft. But they cloaked it all in the guise of "saving the economy". We all know there were ways the gvt could have intervened without taking the shareholders' property entirely. This was theft.
-July 24, 2013
Could've sold if fills were easy! They weren't when that huge dump happened in May. Some were forced to hold or lose $ just bc they couldn't get filled. It was crazy.
Nader? What'd he say today? Heard it was like a pep talk conference call and that's it. Anyone hear differently? Certainly didn't help pps much did it?
When would you short the dow or s&p then? And how long would you have to cover? Timing that short would be critical. I've been thinking of doing it for about 1.5 yrs now and it turns out i'd have been hammered if I had shorted. So, when? It seems imminent, but....hard to predict with enough accuracy to pull the trigger. Any thoughts?
This is relevant bc if dollar crashes, FNMA won't be lookin too pretty either.
Yellen's stance encourages china to stop buying $s. I've been expecting articles like that to start appearing for a while now. Little tidbits along those lines have been happening, with some nations experimenting with pricing certain oil transactions in non-U.S. currencies. DC / banking complex starting to sell U.S. after a decades-long pump and dump?
Excellent perspectives offered there. Thanks.
My sentiments exactly. Some days it's tough to keep a balance between my long attitude and opinion versus my desire to take profits. But I'm not a very experienced flipper, and I don't have $25k day-trading status, so I lean on my long-oriented DD based opinions mostly. Trying to learn more about charts since I got into FNMA and eventually noticed some predictability. If this weren't a political ticker I'd be more willing to attempt to flip sometimes. But knowing I'm limited by T+3 and my relatively small account balance (compared to many here), and that a large sudden increase in pps could happen at any time due to a few peoples' decisions, I'm happy to mostly hold. But I might attempt a small flip if we have another $3+ spike like last week's.
Anyone know link to Millstein congressional testimony today?
Could be another catalyst. He's against eliminating the GSEs. All the DC apparatchiks have smart phones with trading apps, too, you know.
Watt could provide good pps pop. I'm not thinking he'll release GSEs, but just news of a new head could make for a pop if the market disagrees with me.
Thanks crawford. Your highlighted sections do read as positives for the GSEs remaining viable. Was all of that from the PSPA agreement? I had read some of it before somewhere.
Below, in your highlighted area, the middle part seems to suggest they could end up as "some other form", which to me doesn't necessarily promise commons won't be screwed.
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Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may emerge from conservatorship to resume independent operations,
or they may emerge in some other form reflecting legislative changes to their congressional charters.
Conservatorship preserves the status and claims of the preferred and common shareholders.
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Oh btw i hope you took no offense to my previous reply to you. None was intended at all. I enjoy your thoughtful posts and our exchanges very much. So, we're cool right?
Totally agree. I hope we're wrong. But all logically informed speculation would suggest there's no reason to think Watt would release the GSEs. That's just a realistic political prediction.
Nader! Anyone know time of his press conference?
During the May run, it's likely that news of his involvement had something to do with attracting so much retail and general attention.
Love your posts. But prez going after corruption? I've done a ton of research on this president, and i mean a sickly amount of detailed research and DD, including physically visiting the office of his former political party, called the "New Party", where i did some digging. This man is the king of corruption. The champion of all champions. In chicago, very well connected and powerful people have even told me, referring to organized crime, that "they're in the white house now". It's just common knowledge amongst that city's "elite", which seems odd but it's true. So yes, i know all politicians are corrupt. But this president is simply creating more corruption and is dominating us with it. He has absolutely no interest in cutting down on corruption unless it means he's clearing away an enemy so as to create more room for his own corruption. I could list so many examples from his pre-senate career, our heads would spin. i won't. But DC is a mess of lawless criminals who aren't even hiding their criminality anymore. That's why my only hope with FNMA is with the courts. I'll probably sell all but a core position once Watt is confirmed. We'll see what else is happening by then, though.
Whatever president wants, it's likely not in the interest of common shareholders. Look at his background deeply. The man disdains ownership of things, if you know what i mean. Only thing that might prevent us from getting screwed now is courts.
People won't wake up even if their wallets are emptied. Politics in this country has been "brand managed" to make it so that people support parties blindly because it's "their team." They don't notice when their team does the same thing the other team did (which caused them to hate the other team). They still support it. They don't notice their money being robbed because they get that little rush of supporting a certain social cause or another while those pushing that cause with one hand are also engaged in pure robbery with the other hand. We have a pathetic citizenry that doesn't even understand the rights they don't even notice they're losing.
What specifically happened?
Completely agree. In all honesty, I almost shed a real, actual tear tonight thinking about the same things, about the people who are suffering right now, about those whose monthly health insurance has risen 40-300%, about my costs probably rising come january, and having heard a report or two about what's going on right now and what's to come when January hits (50-100 million more people losing coverage). And these days, just glancing at the headlines on, say, drudge report is enough to make me lose my breath for a second and wonder how'd it get this bad? I mean, they don't even hide it anymore. They're now saying yeah- this health care law was just a way of getting to a single payer system all along (which means "if you like your plan you can keep your plan" was all-along a massive lie, because under single payer, your plan is necessarily gone, and they knew it. Thats what the bill was designed to do!). They've even admitted there is a "death panel" that rations health care. They actually decide who gets care and who just has to take a pain pill.
And the party has admitted that much, after basically destroying the reputations of various politicians who tried to point it out as the law was being rammed down our throats. They try to destroy a man who wanted to delay the individual mandate by one year (ted cruz). That was just weeks ago. And last Friday Obama himself basically did what ted cruz had asked everyone to do! Yet in between, ted cruz got smeared to death. And no one seems to notice that the president is doing what cruz wanted. President doesn't even have the legal authority to do it either! He's selectively enforcing parts of the law, rewriting other parts, changing deadlines written into the law, giving exemptions to union cronies and others, all without legal authority to do so. congress legislates, not the executive. And no one is stopping this man as he just does whatever he wants?
I would NOT be surprised one bit if he just keeps the GSEs as zombies, semi-nationalized. You read the Bove article today? He mentions that the president has given conservator the authority to disobey court orders! Granted, that authority cannot be given because it doesn't exist. But he gave it anyway (see Bove article in case i've got something wrong there). Utter lawlessness. And this is all relevant, bc we're dealing with an extremely political stock here. No telling how far thugs and politicians will go to steal from us. As long as he can give himself an executive order granting him immunity from the bill of rights itself, we're screwed. And he'll try just that much before he'll let go of power (in the form of this cash cow). i really hope I'm wrong about that. I'm holding until I'm proven right or wrong.
He got his house by corruption/ tony rezko. Look that one up for an idea of his experience with real estate.
What's the news?
Anyone know pps in munich right now?
Can hedges borrow their own shares to short? I'm not up on every regulation for shorting. Can they borrow from themselves to short?
And if so, Ackman alone has 10% of commons. So how far down can he take the price just by borrowing from himself? There must be a way to use statistics to figure that out. Distribution testing or something...
Not that he couldn't also borrow from outside of his fund, of course. Feel free to weigh in.
Anyone know Munich price right now?
Last May the oscillation patterns were very obvious. Doubt we'll see that today. But See:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-29/damped-harmonic-oscillator-algo-exorcism-fannie-mae
Algos don't make human decisions. When today's over let's see if there's an obvious oscillator pattern to be seen in the chart.