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Look at the 5 minute chart, no real buy support just algo spikes, when they run out of bullets this will freefall.
I see the opposite, relentless selling taking place.
No specific TA leads me to think gap down, just a guess. fwiw, one good trader I follow is saying 198 tomorrow. I don't believe that.
Looking weak intraday, could be topping out. Thinking gap down tomorrow then bearish engulfing candle to 190-191.
I read the article you just posted, interesting read. As the article pointed out the rally this week could have been OPEX related, the heavily manipulated $192.00 close on friday lends credence to that theory. Many very bearish facts pointed out in that article. I will keep holding these puts.
Yeah I don't think this leg up has topped out yet, this is my best guess chart projection.
chart
It's alright though, lets just focus on how we can make money despite the manipulation, instead of arguing over it.
elliott wave theory, I don't use it but I have seen people do chart predictions that are very accurate by using it.
lol, yeah I could see how me saying the word manipulation so much could get tiresome. But seriously though, what's been happening lately is so blatant and disruptive to trading it's angering me, and I guess I'm just venting. Just look at today's $192.00 close, couldn't be more obvious. I will tone down the manipulation talk though, as it's not constructive.
Twice government interference has cost me 5 figure losses, last September I loaded a 50K position of December 185P expecting a larger down turn, a few days later SPY suddenly rallies 5 bucks in one day out of no where, thus began the October rally where SPY floated back to 210, staying overbought on small fractals much longer than should be possible. Didn't know how to explain it at the time, only after seeing it happen again this past week I now realize it was government intervention to prevent a collapse.
Once again last week, the chart looks primed for a drop under 180. I'm like ok cool I will buy some June 170P, and wait for it to unfold. In comes the government again to save the market. No way real buyers or even wall street manipulation alone could make SPY bounce that hard, gapping up each day and rallying 12 bucks in 3 trading days. The government is behind this. They know if SPY broke under 180, people would see the writing on the wall and everyone would bail from the market, causing another August 24th to happen. The market would see a massive drop.
Central banks have no problem destroying the economy but don't want to deal with the consequences of the stock market collapsing as a result. I hold firm this rally would not of happened and Spy would be under 180 if the government didn't interfere. And my puts would be green.
But I will get over it. Life goes on, trading goes on.
I will keep trading. As it's the best way to make large sums of money. It's still better than working at McDonalds for 8 bucks an hour.
And yeah I'm down like 50K on June 170 puts but I'm not worried because I feel the market will tank again, and was prepared for this very situation - a manipulated rally back to 190's as I said in this post.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=120473142
I do like to socialize while I trade, but I feel like the ratio of things being said on here that are actually helpful to ones trading, compared to the amount of pointless blabbering taking place is too low. Granted no one has the authority to control the direction of the board, and one is free to stop reading here.
When I first started reading this board in 2013, it was much more useful. Posters like k9painter were the main catalyst for discussions and the flow of useful TA was better. In 2014, I stopped reading here and became a member of this paid stock traders chat room. I met alot of very good traders there. In early 2015 that website closed down and those traders scattered across the internet. I still follow many on their blogs/websites. Stocktwits is a wasteland, so I started coming back here again to talk to other traders.
I think if people would just slow down and stop posting something inconsequential every 5 minutes things could improve here. Often, there is simply nothing to point out. No point in saying something just to say something. Some people on here post upwards of 80-100 times a day (I counted). I don't see how I could post 80 times a day with every post being something actually useful. Of course I could just stop coming here but I do like to interact with other traders, and there's no where else really to go. So I won't stop coming here. I'm trying to get some of the good traders I know from outside of here to come here and start posting to improve the board.
Huge manipulation in the final minute of the day, wow. A majority of the posts on here were just wasted typing and overthinking. Analysis of every VXX 5 minute candle, every SPY 5 minute bull flag, all intraday indicators superseded by manipulators desire to execute a pre-determined opex pin. 192 close exactly.
All the TA didn't matter today. They forced it close where they wanted.
Watched L2 at 3:59pm and saw the fight to close it at exactly $192.00.
192 opex pin.
This is becoming a less trading is better environment.
Computers playing off traders emotions, don't let it get to you. I'm holding puts and not letting this rally shake me out.
Seems like a majority of traders going short here.
lol, why would they wait for it to break under 181 instead of acting before it happened. Anyone who believes this 12 dollar bounce in a week was from legit buyers is seriously deluded. This week was the clearest market manipulation I've ever seen. But I digress, conversation over. It's like trying to tell people from the year 1200 that the world isn't flat.
Before this week, the word "October" stood on it's own and was a mystery. Now we can explain October. October = Government intervention to prop up the market = SPY can stay overbought much longer than it should be able to. This week counts as October 2.0, the second time the government scooped SPY off 180's and propped it up.
I shouldn't of said that, I apologize. Sometimes I get annoyed by people everyone likes, it does not in any way just apply to this specific situation. For example, At my job there is a person everyone likes, they are friends with everyone and everyone loves and cares about this person. The person becomes untouchable. If I raise a concern and that person disagrees, everyone will blindly agree with that person even if what they say is utterly ridiculous, because they have the status of being that popular person everyone likes. No one wants to disagree with them. So even if I had a valid concern that is perfectly reasonable, it will be ignored and people will always side with that person. That popular person could do or say anything and people will go along with it because no one wants to be the one to go against them. I'm not saying that the stuff you say is wrong, just giving an example.
If he said spy was going to 130 tomorrow, you would agree 100%.
Yes, and in real life I'm always the person to look past normal explanations for things and delve deeper. Seems like most people don't realize how many things in life have alternative explanations for why they really happened. You have to look for all the hidden reasons and put it all together.
Person: oh, spy just bounced from oversold that's all.
Me: Nope. The government stepped in and propped up the market.
Person: it's just trading between oversold and overbought, it's not that deep.
Me: Nope. SPY gapped up and rallied 12 bucks in three trading day's with no pullback.
Person: I'm sure there's some simple explanation for this.
Me: Nope.
"• natural market cycles of buying/selling btwn OS and OB "
There was nothing at all natural about what happened today. Not trying to sound hostile, just expressing my opinion.
Accept reality, there's not enough real buyers around to make this kind of bounce happen. Government intervention to prevent financial panic is the only reasonable explanation.
After some thinking, I now understand what's happening. This is artificial intervention by the U.S. government to prop up the markets and prevent financial panic and a big collapse of the markets.
Think about it, SPY moved sideways for most of 2015, finally rolled over in late August, gets to low 180's, bounces off low 180's to 200, tanks again to low 180's then all of a sudden we get a mega rally that defies all technical analysis. The whole October 2015 rally felt manipulated and fake, and that's because it was. The government stepped in and saved the market. They know the amount of damage it would do to the financial system if we had another 1929 style big collapse of the market, they don't want that to happen. They won't let it happen.
The October rally propped the markets up some, we chopped around through December, then in January air starts to come out of the balloon again and we end up back at 180 in the middle of January. Then we have an oversold bounce to 192. Then we tank again to 181, which brings us to last week. At that point we should have then tanked under 180, but the government stepped in to prevent that. 180 seems to be the line in the sand for the government. If we go under 180, the government's thinking is that then there will be panic and a big collapse of the market. Thus, the government pumps the market, which is why spy moved 10 bucks up in 3 days. It's artificial propping up.
Now we know, the government is prepared to prevent a real collapse of the markets, we just witnessed the power they have to move the market. All the big cap stocks that have been struggling for months suddenly rallied like crazy today, not the work of real buyers. Artificial manipulation from the powers that be. They have unprecedented power to control the stock market. After this week, no one will ever again question the amount of manipulation that can and does take place.
Solid resistance at 193.
October 2.0 confirmed?
SPY is all over the place, up 5 bucks down 5 bucks up 5 bucks every week, to me this type of volatility makes the bear outlook stronger, things are usually more stable in bull market times. Expecting a big move down soon. #bearish.
Yeah I think it gets there way before the june expiry of my puts, I'm assuming I close out my position in the next month at the latest. I bought a far out expiry so that I don't become worried if it doesn't happen fast enough and so that I can withstand another head fake rally to 190's.
Bought 200 contracts of June 17th $170.00P for $6.85, $137,000 position.
Rationale: We are now in a bear market, chart is pointing down, all oversold bounces on the daily are getting viciously sold off, the economy is crumbling. It's rational to assume 180's don't hold in the next few weeks. These intraday swings have become random and unpredictable, a very hostile environment for daytrading. I'm red YTD, and have been losing money on these random intraday moves, so I'm gonna just sit tight on this position and not trade intraday. GLTA.
180-190 could become the new 200-210, which we saw spy juggle around in for months on end last year.
The chart suggests to me that this bounce from 183 yesterday doesn't hold, I think we tank back to 183 by the end of the week.
Kinda sad to see the market bleed out like this, even if you can make money off it.
What led you to do that?
Too much volatility, I don't like this. Makes trading options on this too hard. I don't care how good you are, this is hard to trade right now.
Orderly selling EOD. Seeing much bearish sentiment among traders across the internet. Took some calls overnight.
Bleeding out slowly rather than crashing, Monday could be bloody.
This 190 level on the daily chart is looking more like resistance than support. Yesterday I thought gap up and leg up next week, now I'm thinking big flush next week.