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Don't get caught up in "Urban Legends"-it is 90% Myth purveyed by "legends in their own mind" repeating Myths they have been taught. Don't let the false Camaraderie of a Board lull you into a feeling that nothing stands between you and a Bonanza. Think for yourself and take every poster's input with a healthy skepticism, no matter how much you "like them". It's kinda like phone s%x - the person on the other end could be a 400 pound transgender beached whale and you wouldn't have a clue.
"....I've been trying to figure out what some ballpark ranges might be for our upper limits."
It works better when you put the Cart BEHIND the Horse. This is why, as Jim says, the Market leaves as many behind as possible and that it has to be that way.
Not directed at you, but we can't cheerlead our way to a dollar - it has to happen on merit, and no sooner than it CAN, or does, IF it will.
A market moves at its' own speed.
Smart money cares not a bit about the day-to-day squiggling.
Send it To Drudge! Highlight THE 10 OF 12. . . . It is the type of "Man Bites Dog" Headline that one often sees there.
There is a submit story box on the right side lower . . .
The common thread is "Faster Please".
Oh, Look. Something in The Bushes . . . over There> Quick! before it gets away! Such green, Faster-Growing Grass.
LOL
"Check out MGBS headquarters"
You haven't spent any time in Alaska, or any other natural resource economy, have you?
What Do Texas Instruments, Hewlett Packard, Microsoft, and Apple have in common? A couple of Peeps in a Garage.
How Swank a setup is required to be put on the paperwork and to receive mail? Have you EVER heard the Term "General Contractor"? Do you know what it means in the Broadest Sense?
Can you say "Proxy"? I didn't think so.
Where there's FUD, there's also Sunshine.
Do you find the dissemination of FUD fulfilling?
Why so GLUM?
"Typical Fox; can't even get the headline correct."
You would have to read the story - there may be a coal angle to it, as perhaps that industry has a stake in the outcome.
If the Headline were in the NY Times or the Boston Globe, it would go like this: "Big Coal proposes Strip Mining State of Alaska - Loss of Salmon Fishery to Hit Gays, Lesbians, Undocumented Workers, and Children hardest." .
Truth.
Nice DD.
There's some proof in that listing as to JB's insight into/appreciation of the culture, eg., Matriarchal. He is a man of many realms of intellect.
"i just can't figure out why the news was not released yesterday".
Maybe the contract hadn't been signed. Maybe the Lawyer's kid was sick. Maybe someone realized the List/Quote system was FUBAR.
Maybe it doesn't matter.
Maybe this is a long, drawn out process that will never progress fast enough for some folks.
The Sky is Falling! Putin and Ahmadinajad! are whacking it down, LOL.
There are 242 +- trading days in a year - why try to analyze each minute of every one?
Of course it got whacked today - Board Bullishness was way above reality, and or expecting in a DAY what will take a WEEK.
Comical.
"I'll never be bullish on this thing, when I hit the sell button I'll be gone for good. This thing is a sad joke"
Then please, please, do it on Monday - and leave us to decide >for ourselves< what/who the "Sad Joke" is.
You'll be helping yourself, and everyone else.
" ...last chance to buy under .04 . . ."
I haven't counted, but I think there's a thousand or more posts that are a variation on that theme, many of which are more than a year old and indexed to a higher value.
Just sayin' . . .
"... I expect the price to at some point, collapse, ..."
That would be The One Trick Pony ridden into The Ground.
Maybe, maybe not - it will largely depend on Hay Mt. and North pipes, what eventuates out of either or both of those and the timing of it. The ultimate fate of Pebble production? I wouldn't bet either way, your assessment is the one that will lower your risk exposure in the future . Perhaps the post - drill results collapse or failure to collapse will be The Tell as to what The Market or a big miner looking for replacement production thinks about the likelihood of Pebble producing?
Leopards change not their spots. It's all BS.
Guys, DJ,LTR:
I'll Cover Eating and Drinking it. The FAT Sweaty Dude in the White/Rhinestone Sausage casing - he's not invited - Right?
For Gawd's Sake Please do NOT feed the Trolls today!
I would rather see an NR today than on Monday - short-term, the chart could use a little a little Nutrition.
Excellent Logic and presentation of a potential direction to and evolution of events.
"i will say though, that the B-team does a poor job of representing the intelligent bears/shorts that make up the market with a lot of other stocks... "
That's because: A. They are Amateurs, and not very good at it (unfounded assertions and Strawmen), and B. They assume that their audience is composed of people who are More Ignorant.
Three post limit
50/200 cross on the 4 hour chart:
Daily
3day
"Drilling WILL be started >>>>> and finished<<<<<< before September 1st"
I don't think the "and finished" is an accurate representation of what has been explicity said by JB. Started, yes,. Enough expenditure on work to maintain the claims - implied,more or less. Finished? (not to include assay results) - I didn't hear that and it would be EXTREMELY optimistic. He did mention that drilling can progress at , if I recall correctly, 200 feet a day, or less, depending on the nature of the rock and overburden.
At any rate, nothing we believe to be understood based on interaction during the tour has concrete significance, only NR's, and the application of Safe Harbor. If one reads too much into the Tour presentation, or "Hears" something that wasn't said, it can induce a lot of confusion and even a "bad reaction".
Only NR's can be trusted - not what someone says they heard. Example: "X" dollars of PP money already! I will believe that factoid when I read it in a release (and I do realize that processing time and various legal/regulatory realities, as well as the two week stretch of the tour may result in more than one announcement going forward.
Lots of good DD on this board, and knowledge. But there is also an awful lot of speculation with "Confirmation Bias". Speculation + Enthusiasm + Confirmation Bias = Recipe for Bad Decision-making and its' fallout (anxiety, disappointment, anger, Bitterness - not to mention "Losses").
Best of luck to 'Most'.
"Power Hour"
Be warned - on an up day it becomes "Ego-Hour" where all the Momo Riff-Raff brag of their Brilliant trades and huge profits - Often times they are wanna-be market manipulators trying to con you into believing they should be listened to, so that you will be conditioned to do what they "suggest" somewhere down the Road.
"It isn't the best video - many facts and figures are wrong and
too much speculation."
"He speaks of the Chinese money as a given - it is not."
"I could go on and on - but it is a misleading video."
Good on ya! A little Bash - Free reality and 'Acoustic adjustment' is needed to keep the board from becoming a cheerleading Echo chamber. I didn't watch it due to the outsized enthusiasm for it.
Besides, I just had an opportunity to listen to, and ask questions of The King of Calderas, The Viceroy of Veggies, The Master of Multi-metals, His Excellency of Exploration, The Jam-master of Geology - Joltin' Jim, Briscoe himself: . . . why be distracted by some Yoo-Toober?
I hope the Video Guy wasn't selling anything.
Can't wait to add: The Deacon of Drills, The Sultan of Strikes, The Grandmaster of Grades . . . LOL
"has annyone here on ihub had the time and energy to scroll throught the liberty website . . "
Hawk. Got to change detection.com and set up a robot - you will get an email anytime it changes. it has been changing a lot, but mostly Tour info.
"With the lien on the claim, not sure if a drilling permit can be obtained without lienholder approval. Loan may have to be satisfied before any permit issued......".
This is wrong on so many levels, not the least of which is called "Logic".
FUD>>>>> Fear. Uncertainty. Doubt. Old, old, Psychological manipulation technique.
I'll bet you can scare the Hell out of the Shady Acres Retirement Home Ladies Investing Club.
DJ calls it 'Comedy Gold' - but that would only be true if you Actually Believed what you're pumping.
Crap like this without a shred of reference or backup is. . . . Crap. Find Something to be good at.
"it's nice to know we've got a $10M bullet in the chamber to stave off the vultures--it would be nice not to have to fire it "
The Beauty of being armed is that the criminal class tends to look for that in advance, and adjust their behavior when doing so would be more prudent.
Boston - Impressions:
Briscoe "Thinks Outside of The Box". Briscoe is a Gentleman. Briscoe is not Egotistical.
If Briscoe sold Used cars, he might go broke, but I would buy from him. . . . No HYPE, Just the facts.
Relationship with NAK: 40:60 Split is a bad deal and that is why the JV has not Gone forward - Briscoe is a buyer (of a JV offer), not a seller.
Barring a "Black Swan", Drills turn in AK in time to satisfy Claim maintenance Costs (some or all), and excess carries forward to future years..
Body language, & demeanor Re: Larry Liang tells me Briscoe has no Reservations re: LL's Business acumen or ability to "Deal". . . . Kinda fuzzy on Plan of succession should he (Briscoe) be Out of the picture, that aspect is largely Geology, not LL - that is, Jim tacitly admitted Succession issue hasn't been thoroughly addressed with regard to Geology, did not bat an eyelash while saying (paraphrase) 'LL can/would run the Business end' (or words to that effect). I think the Bug is in his ear, and having heard it will at some point get more attention. Bottom line for those who have denigrated LL in the past: Briscoe appears totally comfortable, and I recall an interview with Briscoe wherein he desribed a recruiting process that included a type of thought process and interpersonal compatability, Team Fit assessment - IOW it was a deliberate Choice, not haphazard or uninformed.
About 14 people at the meeting - one Gent. was pushy about a Financing figure that Briscoe replied to as though the question was "to Get to Production" - 3-4B was mentioned and that dude was out the door.
Opinion: I have been involved with explorers that became producers. GETTING TO PRODUCTION IS NOT WHAT THIS IS ABOUT AT THIS POINT IN TIME! What this is about is a progression of plans and actions, each of which advances the MERIT/feasibility of Future Production. As each of the many aspects of merit/feasibility become known and addressed, the Value of an ore body increases in a non-linear fashion (curve).
NAK: Look at their CHART (IMO) this should tell us a lot: 1. NAK fumbled the political/community outreach football, and that has resulted in the Greenies and Lodgeowners having the Louder voice for a longer time. A motivated group of NATIVE AMERICAN 'Community activists' could, I think, really make the Greenies and Lodge Owners look like THE EXPLOITERS - If you're a dyed in the wool Pinko Commie Bleeding Heart, how do you Say "Screw You!" to The Indians? "Screw You!" to the Fishies and Froggies and Tundra Bunnies?" Which do you Bleed and Whine about? I'm hoping the Locals have an outsized voice in the whole Process. 2. In the earlier going, NAK was the only Game on the Caldera - Now? NOT SO MUCH.
BIG IMPRESSION: Briscoe Knows a HELL of a lot more about the Actual NUTS AND BOLTS of MINING than you would expect from a "Practical/Exploration Geologist"
The 800 Lb. Gorilla, IMO IS that NAK can Call their loan - I wanted to raise that issue to see how he would respond, but there were a lot of other questions being put, and I think Tracey could probably address that.
Hay MT. Isn't really Hay Mt., it is West of the Terrain Feature "Hay Mountain". Briscoe has more Claim-Staking he would like to do in Arizona.
NEWS Soon, IMO, and fairly steady too.
I've tried to address things that aren't a repeat of other meeting notes.
Last: Greed is a Cruel Mistress, and She is a Master of Jerking one around on a leash called "Time".
What about Omega 9's? 3's are bad (or good), 6's are good (or bad), what about the 9's?
Since this is my last post (I think) for today:
All,
I plan on going to Boston tomorrow. If I do, I will be wearing a blue hat with the "Spruce Goose" on it. Rather than ask in the vein of "How will I be made Rich and how soon?", I want to Know: "If the 4:20 to LA crashes into this room in 5 minutes, is there a formal Plan of leadership succession?" and "Has Liberty Star taken out Key person Life insurance on Jim Briscoe?" I would also like to float the idea of beginning now to address potential Fed/EPA Stonewalling through the judicial System - KY you never responded.
Putting this out there in case I am called away to fly a plane load of Rubber Vomit, Ipads, Knick-Knacks and Viagra to wherever and can't go.
No, No, No! OMEGAS . . . what about the 9's?
Leif,
3's, 6's. WHAT ABOUT 9's? I wanna know.
"DONT: Get kickedoffagin"
Sometimes I just can't help myself - like spotting a 'Ten' when you're at the Beach . . . . . with your wife or girlfriend.
Is this a possibility, and I think it would send a strong message: Suppose the stock has solid support in the .05's or higher, and Briscoe et. al. exercise (cashless) X number of their .038 options - that puts coin into the Kitty immediately, and without third party terms and conditions.... plus, they are less likely to immediately sell ALL as Others are likely to do.
Just looking for outside the box solutions to immediate raising of relatively small amounts, to put the 1st phase Drilling football through the uprights.
Seems we're looking at an O/S of 700 mil. in the near term.
Greed IS a Cruel Mistress........
LOL
"this is what's going to happen from an "investor" point of view if it does something insane like a multi-dollar run
---LBSR ticks to 1.50 ---LBSR ticks to 2.35 ---Sell order in at $4.50
---LBSR ticks to 2.75 ---LBSR-collapses to .40c ---Sell order lowered to $1, please god!!!!!!
---LBSR collapses to .20c ---Sell order in at .20c, Ordered filled!
---LBSR bounces to $1.50"
-
Elsewhere:
No thoughts fom the Brain Trust on the merits of nurturing a Strategic Article 5 Lawsuit? KY?
Bueller?
Hawk,
"i am clueless
1-2 years??
6-9 months? " Do a little DD, other new producers NR stream going backwards. OR make your best guess and double it. There's a lot of DEFINITION DRILLING, Mine Design and engineering, and then the number - crunching. IMO 4 years from first drill would be "Alacritous", it is a comples process with lots of "Chefs".
BOL
Thanks for that, you reminded me of a couple things that had crossed my mind yesterday:
KY has ranted er, proselytized (LOL), as to the possible Legal ramifications of Federal Gov't. Deathstar operations in terms of the U.S. Constitution (Article 5 IIRC) and etc., issues I'm not familiar with, but have no doubt he is a Bird-Dog for . . . .
It occurred to me, the lightning speed with which our Judicial system resolves straightforward readings of Constitutional Law being as it is, whether or not there might be a group of Constitutionally Oriented citizens, who had the means, and an already fermenting Legal Dispute that they could back and advance on Similar Points of Law as a PRE-EMPTIVE means of Expediting and establishing recent precedent by way of a decision we may have to deal with later than sooner?
If I was Rich, I'd throw money at it - I have no doubt there's a small-scale dispute already underway SOMEWHERE that won't go far because of lack of "Gravity".
Perhaps Tracy might run the concept by Briscoe - Who knows whom he might know, or the extent of the network of similarly threatened businesses and individuals? If I make it to Boston's Mtg. and get an opportunity, I'll make an effort to Pitch the concept. I'm inclined to think that the Pebble Folks might have caught "Environmental Compliance and Mitigation Tunnel Vision" I wonder if they thought along these lines, or perhaps decided to wait until if/when it was necessary due to being "Their Case"?
If that happens, nothing matters anyway.
100 pounds of chain around the legs of a drowning man.
In the progressive Utopia - Gulag, wealth creation is a health-promoting virus that must be eradicated among the proletariat and nurtured within the Political class.
Don't trust Polls unless you know something about polling methodology, and the agenda of the pollster. We live in an age where nearly every piece of information is a component of a larger, ongoing Propaganda effort.
Rasmussen is one of the few Pollsters that's worth a damn.
Example: Boston Globe (Pravda-on-the-Charles)/Suffolk University poll 3 or so days ahead of The Scott Brown "upset" win had him 15 points down to "Marsha" Coakley - What A Joke.
"we seem to have a whole bunch of impending news that may take 30 or 60 or 90 days before it is released. .... what happens to the chart?"
Unanswerable question. Price is a plant - from the Chart you can get an Idea of how the plant is doing, and how the soil/water/sunlight conditions are. news is frost (bad), fertilizer (good), or Drought (none).
When waiting for news, traders exit, investors enter - the longer the wait, the lower it goes - if the wait goes beyond expectation, the lower it goes again.... unless investors see a compelling reason to accumulate over time while accepting the cost average.
What are you expecting? What are others expecting? Permits approved in rapid order. Permits delayed by unnamed Red Tape. Arrowheads Found/not found. Drill Rig Breaks. Like a Hot Knife through butter, Bullseye with Bonanza Grades.
The most reasonable thing to expect is that the plan will be advanced with funding from PP's or fairhills in a workmanlike fashion more slowly than you would like and that once an uptrend, downtrend or side ways trend is established it will continue until the next release/leak/development of info. or change in the underlying market (metal prices, Depression/recession/boom, Market sentiment.
The Chart also gives you an Idea of what the growth potential of the plant is, but there are so many ways to conduct that exercise (Fib, Pitchforks, Horizontals, Diagonals, Fans) that you're just picking a "Guess Method" IMO.
A deposit can't be accurately valued until a Proven Measured Resource and feasibility Study are complete, final share structure, JV terms (if any), etc. . . . A Looong way off.
And newsletter guys charge big bucks for similar 'Predictions' LOL
Ride 'em, Cowboy.
Next leg up underway. Post consolidation. Probably pedestrian uptrend unless/until news or boredom hits - whichever occurs first.
"I do not enjoy watching others lose money."
That's THEIR excuse. Your use of it gives them credibility and elevates their Fact-Free Diatribes to a level of legitimacy that is wholly unwarranted.
Just sayin'.
Tyler,
Why converse with and give a platform and credibility to someone who was predicting "subpenny' a few short weeks ago? He either knows everything, or knows nothing - you can't enlighten him either way.
Lief had the right idea - as is usually the case.
"Why go in to AK without having Pebble cleared??"
MAYBE because:
1. Mineral deposits sufficiently documented, even In Situ, are worth a lot of money, much more than those that are implied by geology alone.
2. Perhaps 'someone' expressed 'an interest'.
3. perhaps the higher resolution ZTEM revealed 'something'
4. Perhaps JB considers the environmental issues resolved insofar as having reason to believe his claims are on an equal, if not superior, environmental footing than those of NAK.
5. Perhaps Circular Dumps and "Off Season" drilling are new variables that were not under consideration in the past, and change the equation.
"72 processed inversions on 134 lines. This includes all lines flown during the 2009 (NR 83) survey. The August, 2009 survey was flown at 250 meter (825 feet) line intervals but only every other line was processed, giving a resolution of lines at 500 meters or 1,650 feet apart. Further, processing at that time assumed a flat earth and did not take into account topography. When the report was originally delivered, software was not able to process all the data from all the lines, nor elevation data. Newer software developed by Geotech can take into account topography, which yields more accurate results, and can handle all the computations necessary to address all of the lines, not just every other one. Trillions of computations are required in processing this data to make it useful."