I can't reply to private messages. I only have the basic membership Sorry.
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I think we've got a few mil held by traders who are happy to take a 5-10% profit, oblivious to the fact that if they held out a bit they'd potentially see 40-50%. Then add to that the shorts will dig in and do everything they can to stem the flood.
enjoy your trip and enjoy the news!
I got the list set up so I can update it in a couple minutes, will continue to do so as more come out in the coming days.
Some impressive names stepping up to the plate. Today the drillship. Next comes inclusion in the Russell 2000 and even more institutional buying pressure, then the 3D. Rockstars perfect storm will unfold, just with a little more short drama than first predicted :)
A few more news ones (in red)
(March 31 dates only)
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?symbol=HDY&selected=HDY&FormType=Institutional
BLACKROCK GROUP LTD.. 4,000,000
STATE STREET CORP.... 3,537,686
SUSQUEHANNA.......... 3,463,462
DISCOVERY CAPITAL MA..1,976,000
KLEINHEINZ CAPITAL P..1,595,500
ROXBURY CAPITAL...... 1,219,685
HODGES CAPITAL......... 993,250
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC....918,043
REVELATION CAPITAL M... 711,300
VANGUARD GROUP INC..... 634,776
DLS CAPITAL............ 620,400
WEINTRAUB CAPITAL MA... 600,000
CAISSE DE DEPOT ET P... 600,000
AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL... 400,100
CHARTER OAK PARTNERS... 399,985
FIRST NEW YORK SECUR... 344,600
PINE RIVER CAPITAL M... 292,050
ESSEX INVESTMENT MAN... 256,831
SCHWAB CHARLES INVES... 217,005
CALIFORNIA PUBLIC EMP.. 208,506
CREDIT SUISSE AG/...... 203,136
DEUTSCHE BANK AG....... 165,575
BLACKROCK FUND ADVIS... 159,245
LMR MASTER FUND LTD.... 142,689
MARSHALL WACE NORTH ... 130,924
MORGAN STANLEY......... 128,432
DYNAMIS ADVISORS, LL... 100,000
COMMERZBANK AKTIENGE.... 92,450
MADISON STREET PARTN.... 85,300
RUSSELL FRANK CO........ 80,850
IFC HOLDINGS INCORPO.... 79,300
BLUEFOOT PARTNERS, L.... 65,000
DRIEHAUS CAPITAL MAN.... 63,816
INVESCO LTD............. 56,229
FIRST DALLAS SECURIT.... 55,850
HELIOS ADVISORS LLC..... 50,000
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP .... 46,177
ING GROEP NV............ 45,173
CITIGROUP INC........... 41,430
KNIGHT CAPITAL GROUP.... 40,295
SPOT TRADING L.L.C...... 37,275
J P MORGAN CHASE & C.... 36,486
FIC CAPITAL INC......... 26,525
ARROW INVESTMENT ADV.... 25,995
Others (total)......... 202,263
Total updated from NASDAQ (rounded): 25,150,000
INSTITUTIONAL Holdings Summary
Total Number of Holders 84
% of Shares Outstanding 28.84%
Total Shares Held 44,861,707
Update 24.3M new reported institutional purchases
(March 31 dates only)
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?symbol=HDY&selected=HDY&FormType=Institutional
BLACKROCK GROUP LTD.. 4,000,000
STATE STREET CORP.... 3,537,686
SUSQUEHANNA.......... 3,463,462
DISCOVERY CAPITAL MA..1,976,000
KLEINHEINZ CAPITAL P..1,595,500
ROXBURY CAPITAL...... 1,219,685
HODGES CAPITAL......... 993,250
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC....918,043
VANGUARD GROUP INC..... 634,776
DLS CAPITAL............ 620,400
WEINTRAUB CAPITAL MA... 600,000
CAISSE DE DEPOT ET P... 600,000
AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL... 400,100
CHARTER OAK PARTNERS... 399,985
FIRST NEW YORK SECUR... 344,600
PINE RIVER CAPITAL M... 292,050
ESSEX INVESTMENT MAN... 256,831
SCHWAB CHARLES INVES... 217,005
CALIFORNIA PUBLIC EMP.. 208,506
DEUTSCHE BANK AG........165,575
BLACKROCK FUND ADVIS... 159,245
LMR MASTER FUND LTD.....142,689
MARSHALL WACE NORTH ... 130,924
MORGAN STANLEY......... 128,432
DYNAMIS ADVISORS, LL... 100,000
COMMERZBANK AKTIENGE.... 92,450
MADISON STREET PARTN.... 85,300
RUSSELL FRANK CO........ 80,850
IFC HOLDINGS INCORPO.... 79,300
BLUEFOOT PARTNERS, L.... 65,000
DRIEHAUS CAPITAL MAN.... 63,816
INVESCO LTD............. 56,229
FIRST DALLAS SECURIT.... 55,850
HELIOS ADVISORS LLC..... 50,000
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP .... 46,177
ING GROEP NV............ 45,173
KNIGHT CAPITAL GROUP.... 40,295
SPOT TRADING L.L.C...... 37,275
J P MORGAN CHASE & C.... 36,486
FIC CAPITAL INC......... 26,525
ARROW INVESTMENT ADV.... 25,995
Others (total)......... 197,563
Total updated from NASDAQ (rounded): 24,335,000
Ok thanks chm, now I understand what nittany was getting at. Based on that it's probably best to just use what's shown on NASDAQ as it's most complete. The numbers would be
Total New from NASDAQ institutional (rounded): 17,222,000
Leaves some 7.78M unaccounted for (plus the greenshoe). I expect we'll see some more updates this week. The way I ordered the list it will be easy for me to update it going forward.
Travel safe!
HDY was heavily shorted like this once in the not so distant past. July 30 2010 the short interest ratio reached 9.9 days. Share price was $1.15 on an average daily volume of 195,000 shares. By August 31 it had backed off to 8.2 days on increased volume (242k/day).
Then Ray dropped the bomb.
http://investors.hyperdynamics.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=505327
Within days the share price was in the $1.60s, by the middle of October it hit $3.50.
Now we sit @ 10 1/2 days. And Ray is potentially sitting with another bomb. I bet he smiles if he reads this :)
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=HDY&selected=HDY
True, although I thought he said the majority, not specifically all the shares were accounted for by them.
At this point it would look like three of those 4 would be
STATE STREET CORP (3,537,686)
SUSQUEHANNA (3,463,462)
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (3,537,220)
Of couse while I can total new reported holdings as of March 31, I can't determine which may of been purchased after Jan 1st but prior to the offering. But at least this would appear to account for a vast majority. If nothing else, it's a little detective playing on a saturday afternoon.
Updated with additional info from NASDAQ
Total new reported institutional purchases (March 31 dates only)
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?symbol=HDY&selected=HDY&FormType=Institutional
BLACKROCK GROUP LTD.. 4,000,000
STATE STREET CORP.... 3,537,686
SUSQUEHANNA.......... 3,463,462
ROXBURY CAPITAL...... 1,219,685
HODGES CAPITAL......... 993,250
VANGUARD GROUP INC..... 634,776
DLS CAPITAL............ 620,400
CAISSE DE DEPOT ET P... 600,000
FIRST NEW YORK SECUR... 344,600
ESSEX INVESTMENT MAN... 256,831
SCHWAB CHARLES INVES... 217,005
CALIFORNIA PUBLIC EMP.. 208,506
BLACKROCK FUND ADVIS... 159,245
MARSHALL WACE NORTH ... 130,924
DYNAMIS ADVISORS, LL... 100,000
COMMERZBANK AKTIENGE.... 92,450
RUSSELL FRANK CO........ 80,850
IFC HOLDINGS INCORPO.... 79,300
BLUEFOOT PARTNERS, L.... 65,000
FIRST DALLAS SECURIT.... 55,850
HELIOS ADVISORS LLC..... 50,000
KNIGHT CAPITAL GROUP.... 40,295
SPOT TRADING L.L.C...... 37,275
J P MORGAN CHASE & C.... 36,486
FIC CAPITAL INC......... 26,525
ARROW INVESTMENT ADV.... 25,995
Others (total)......... 145,530
Total New from NASDAQ (rounded): 17,222,000
HOWEVER NASDAQ does not show the following Mutual Funds:
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas... 3,537,220
Hodges Fund............ 550,000
Columbia Energy........ 400,000
iShares Dow Jones...... 157,472
Roxbury Small Cap...... 141,870
Hodges Small Cap Fund.. 100,000
Total Including Mutual Funds: 22,108,000
Sold out Institutional (NASDAQ)
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLO... 396,500
CAMBRIAN CAPITAL, LL... 126,279
EUDAIMONIA ASSET MAN... 116,285
RAYMOND JAMES & ASSO.... 62,500
TURNER INVESTMENT PA.... 27,250
SOUTH TEXAS MONEY MA.... 25,000
Others (total).......... 19,750
Total Sold out (rounded) 774,000
Raw total accounting for the offering + green shoe (and subtracting those sold out) it still leaves 6.6 M shares unaccounted for. That assumes all of these transactions were limited to the offering (which of course we can't). It also doesn't take into account retail. At best it's a reasonable indication - some of those factors probably cancel each other out.
19.6M accounted for, assuming all reported new purchases are part of the offering.
Total new reported purchases above 100,000 shares (as of March 31)
Newly reported on Daily Finance
Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP 3,500,000
From MSN Money: Mutual Funds
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF 3,537,220
Hodges Fund 550,000
Columbia Energy and Natural Resources Fund 400,000
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production 157,472
Roxbury Small Cap Growth Fund 141,870
Hodges Small Cap Fund 100,000
From MSN Money: Institutional
BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd. 4,000,000
State Street Global Advisors (US) 3,537,686
Vanguard Group, Inc. 634,776
Hodges Capital Management, Inc. 993,250
DLS Capital Management, LLC 620,400
California Public Employees' Retirement System 208,506
Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec 600,000
First New York Capital Corp. 344,600
Essex Investment Management Company, LLC 256,831
Total (rounded off): 19.6M
Unaccounted for (excluding greenshoe) 5.4M
Unaccounted for (greenshoe) 3.75M
Would appear probable there is at least one more large purchaser still lurking out there. No doubt a percentage also can be accounted for by smaller purchases. It also does not take into account shares sold, so to some extent that would probably even out.
Another 4.1 M shares accounted for
Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP 3.5M
Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec 600,000
http://www.dailyfinance.com/company/hyperdynamics-corporation-common-stock/hdy/ase/institutional-ownership
CHM what's going on? I spend 2 days in meetings and can't direct some intense negativity to bolster the share price and look what happens!
Oh and no, the meetings didn't involve any mysterious cabal twitting insider gossip on HDY :o
Thanks for that. I spend an hour or two a day trying to educate myself as much as possible.
Just got back from getting a haircut. Told them to trim it real short ;) Nice close :D
If not two of them ... there still has to be in excess of 20M shares unaccounted for, don't you think?
I've been trying to educate myself who has to declare and when. I know about 5% owners, but what about mutual funds and the like? If their holdings are less than 5% do we see them when they release their holding info to their clients or is there another rule that requires them to declare within a certain timeframe?
signed
the rookie
I hope no one is sweating in their shorts, what with no one in a hurry to sell :)
A tinder-dry forest looking for an ignition spark
That's what I see today. The extension wasn't quite enough but man I sure wouldn't want to be sitting on a bundle of short kindling right about now.
Treading water can be good exercise :)
Now can we do something about the volume?
That's the same link I gave silly :D
and my head hurt afterwards too :o
That's what I can't find anything on. I suppose if I keep digging I could. I think there would be two questions.
1. Would it be considered stabilization if they short prior to the announcement?
2. If not, then is it legal?
My bad. That should read they could not loan shares to anyone to short from the time of filing until pricing. Nothing about whether they themselves could continue to short as a stabilization strategy during that period. Nothing about whether they could initiate that strategy prior to filing
OK best I can tell under Regulation M:
If the stabilization began prior to the determination of the offering price, it is initiated at the last market price. I can't find anything on whether shorting as a stabilization strategy can be initiated prior to filing. That seems to be what this comes down to. Everything else seems legit. Best I can tell, they could not short from the time of filing until pricing. Nothing about prior to filing.
Securities Lawyer's Deskbook
http://taft.law.uc.edu/CCL/regM/index.html
Excerpts:
Rule 104 Stabilizing and Other Activities in Connection with an Offering
a. "•Maximum stabilizing bid. Notwithstanding the other provisions of this paragraph (f), no stabilizing shall be made at a price higher than the lower of the offering price or the stabilizing bid for the security in the principal market (or, if the principal market is closed, the stabilizing bid in the principal market at its previous close)."
"•Initiating stabilizing when there is no market for the security or before the offering price is determined. If no bona fide market for the security being distributed exists at the time stabilizing is initiated, no stabilizing shall be initiated at a price in excess of the offering price. If stabilizing is initiated before the offering price is determined, then stabilizing may be continued after determination of the offering price at the price at which stabilizing then could be initiated."
Rule 105 Short Selling in Connection with a Public Offering
"a.Unlawful Activity. In connection with an offering of equity securities for cash pursuant to a registration statement or a notification on Form 1-A or Form 1-E filed under the Securities Act of 1933 ("offered securities"), it shall be unlawful for any person to sell short (as defined in Rule 242.200(a)) the security that is the subject of the offering and purchase the offered securities from an underwriter or broker or dealer participating in the offering if such short sale was effected during the period ("Rule 105 restricted period") that is the shorter of the period:
•Beginning five business days before the pricing of the offered securities and ending with such pricing; or
•Beginning with the initial filing of such registration statement or notification on Form 1-A or Form 1-E and ending with the pricing."
Also here's an excerpt on overallotting and stabilization from Barron's Stockbroker Examination
http://books.google.ca/books?id=iD-m9rQ3214C&pg=PA102&lpg=PA102&dq=greenshoe+when+can++shorting+to+support+an+offering+begin?&source=bl&ots=AnV_U8P-Vf&sig=i3JkIDHXkAixKG1So_5ez1yS6Lk&hl=en&ei=RanFTdLzMYygsQO_3cWSAQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=4&ved=0CC0Q6AEwAw#v=onepage&q&f=false
The only conflict I see with that in this case is that the massive 'fails to deliver' occured prior to the offering and at a price significantly higher than the offering price . It did not occur at or anywhere near the offering price nor does it appear to occur to boister the share price during the offering, nor after the market reacted to the offering.
On March 22nd, HDY opened @ $5.94 and closed @ $6.09
On March 23nd, HDY opened @ $6.16 and closed @ $6.30 (2.4M)
On March 24th, HDY opened @ $6.40 and closed @ $6.01 (1.8M)
That all occured prior to the press release when the market closed on the 24th. Now I can see someone trying to argue the shorting on the 24th as an attempt to keep the offering extremely attractive to the large block purchasers, however if they were a large institution, isn't that playing them as a fool? That would imply they were utterly incapable of due diligence.
The bulk of the spike (2.4M + 1.8M) did not occur in response to when the stock dropped after the announcement. It did not occur to support the price in the $5 - 5.30 range. The bulk of it occured prior to the drop on the 25th.
Somebody took a lot of money and put it in their own pocket and it occured prior to the offering hitting the market.
Any way, I didn't write a nasty letter, it was to the point though. I am not a conspiratist, but I think an explanation should be in order. If nothing else, a frank answer would quell the rumours that silence complicits.
Following up on the post on the IV board regarding naked shorting , I wrote a letter to HDY Investor relations, requesting whether they have brought to the attention of the SEC the extreme spike in fails to deliver on March 23.
The Press release of the share offering was dated March 24th. http://investors.hyperdynamics.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=559905
The spike started prior to the announcement of the share offering and was unprecedented when compared to the past history of fails to cover.
This is the raw data.
Source: http://failstodeliver.com/datadump.aspx
Date Fail to Deliver
2011/03/14 563
2011/03/16 52,163
2011/03/17 195,664
2011/03/18 123,170
2011/03/21 235,273
2011/03/22 351,034
2011/03/23 2,466,727
2011/03/24 1,836,278
2011/03/25 1,136,248
2011/03/28 636,465
2011/03/29 535,943
2011/03/30 14,539
2011/03/31 15,905
2011/04/01 40,997
2011/04/04 26,507
While someone might argue this was due to the high share price, nothing even close to these numbers occured when the share price was closing north of $7.00. The closest similiar event involved one fifth of this volume (Feb 26 2010, 485,312 shares).
HDY established a bullish Stochastic Crossover signal.
Money Flow Index (MFI) is bullish and moving up for HDY.
HDY established a Bullish Harami Candlestick Pattern.
HDY established a Bullish Bollinger Band Crossover (Lower) signal.
HDY bounced back from a recent support.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is bullish for HDY.
Stock Rating: Strong Buy with a score of 5/5
http://www.traderscreener.com/stocks/amex-HDY.aspx
Aw shucks, I hung a few out there right before the bell @5.60 but no one took em ;)
Well CHM that was probably my fault. I let my pessimism crack for a minute. I'll try my best to stay negative til the close. I would be so choked if we spike a new HOD @ the close ;)
Looks like somebody with a big shoebox is defending that 3.50 line
(edit) If I had the money to fill a shoebox I'd be chipping away 100 shares at a time ;)
I bet right now $4 would cause a little concern. Come on Ray, sign that contract and get that press release out! You got to know there's some nervous shorts watching the ticker.
I got a meeting in 20 minutes. I really don't want to walk away right now :(
What do you think the magic number is to panic the shorts?
no way
Boy would it be nice to see a drill ship contract right about now
ok CHM but what about me? I told you what happens when I tie into a good bitching session ;)
Ledge? There's a ledge?
Call me crazy but I'm playing it like this. Any sign of weakness and I'm doing what I did yesterday. Selling half my holdings and repurchasing lower. Thanks to yesterday I have a bit of a buffer to work with in case it reverses and not end up any worse than what I held originally.
Not sure about the $3 floor. $4 didn't seem to mean much. Maybe there's something to the Blackrock av. price, but if you add in BGF and the other small arms, I'm really not sure what that ultimately is.
I'm going to play this a little gutsy again and try to lower my sp again in the morning. Given the comments about margins @ $3 it would seem to be the next target of the shorts.
One thought that occured to me is whether the signing will have any effect on the current slide given the momentum and given that the release of the deep water 2D had little or no impact.
This would be a lot easier if I was still standing above my asp instead of not being able to touch it with my fingertips even when standing on my toes on top of a shoebox.
(edit) correction
http://investors.hyperdynamics.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1144204-11-20900
The 8K was filed on April 8th.
(edit) correction:
Signed by AGR on the 6th
Signed by Jasper on the 8th.
Some of us who are underwater have been holding, but every day more people who have been whistling and expecting this to stop are finding themselves sitting at a loss with value dropping in the range of 5% a day.
When do the smaller institutional holders who bought in the $5+ range start to bail? A 40% loss on the balance sheet is going make a lot of people nervous who have held out until now. And as for Blackrock, what's to say they're not complicit? Why wouldn't they want to see this stock go sub $2(or god forbid, even sub $1) so they can pick up another 5 or 10M @ firesale prices?
I don't get the complete inaction on the part of HDY. If they are serisouly talking with potential partners, they're letting the ground they're standing on collapse under their feet. Why would anyone negotatie and come to terms with an exploration company that might be worth half of it's current value in a week or 10 days time?
I don't get it. And to add fuel to the fire, here we sit, near the end of the 30 day window to sign the drillship. Given the track record with LOI's either they are holding back deliberately or their is no drill ship deal. And who knows, if someone in the midst of negotiations doesn't care about share price, maybe the thinking becomes 'given the oil price bubble is showing signs of bursting, we can get a rig for even less if we hold out'.
I'm not trying to slam management, but I'm beginning to doubt whether we are anywhere near the bottom of this slide. If all they truly care about is the fact that they raised the capital to drill, even the major investors who bought in @ $5 are wondering WTF?
Well I've been down so god damn long
that it looks like up to me.
Tell me why I'm holding this stock again :o
looks like there's some serious buying going on below 3.50
So do you think the 3D will be out before the June options expire?
what's the expected MC cut off for making the Russell 2000?
didn't fill any shoe boxes but I managed to add 2.5% to my holdings and decrease my asp by 2% and all it cost me was trade fees :)
I would of made out like a bandit but I had to leave for a while and didn't want to walk away without finishing what I started.
Too late! I hope the water is deep!
I'm in for 3.5x