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I've never understood how atraders trade based upon valuations
its a sort of "trading" but on different timescales. and generally much easier, since you have more information. e.g. if you knew that yhoo would lose at least 60% of its value at some point in the "not too far distant future", could you make use of that information? if you follow all the wiggles, probably not, because that's not your strategy.
Then they convinced a bunch of 'em to head to Wall Street and become analysts.
ah, but you'd better watch out for them, cuz it looks like their jobs have been transferred to india.
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=105...
now what mischief will they cause? hmm.
(so why does FT put news like that under the "europe" home page but not the "us" home page?)
yup. but they haven't been selling any vast quantities yet. i mean, perhaps your scenario will pan out. i just don't think the stars are aligned quite yet.
> how about "cunningly feed supply to Joe Sixpack gradually to
> maximize profits"?.....sounds like the stock market to me.
yah. but when that happens in the stock market, prices go up ...
ready to dump reserves into any rally imo
i don't understand. why would they want to "dump", unless the goal were to drive the price down. and then, of course, you can't continue to dump ...
> you can just buy or sell the trend until it ends, cause the
> trend is smarter than you or anybody else.
yah, i suppose. i'm not so trusting in trends, though. i need to know *why* i own something. unless its in my little trading portfolio. i did, however, buy heavily into a gold fund in dec 01, and except for march 02 (moved some out) have been adding on significant dips.
> thats what makes bear trends, people buying too many calls in a
> downtrending market, we have the opposite now.
yah, i regularly buy out-of-the-money calls. 'specially for things i intend to short.
as for now: well, august is august. seems to be playing out - so far - like last year.
How will the spin machine put lipstick on HPQ and BTB?
btb is easy. that which does not kill the rally makes it stronger.
hpq, on the other hand, is another story. the easiest way would be to temporarily revoke its bellweather status: "evidence of a recovery is clear, but not from hpq's numbers. something must be wrong at hpq."
"The light volume enabled him to pump the "usual suspects" into the close to give us the green. He might have a tougher time tomorrow, though."
lets hope so. watching intc, i'm beginning to believe that there's no price too high that someone won't pay for it.
pretty big dive there on the bkx, tnx, tyx. did something happen?
hmm. brcm really took off here a.h. news?
I've been watching you accumulate that actually and am kicking myself for not doing the same. Nice trade.
its tough. it bleeds down and then jumps up and then ... repeat. but i learned patience long ago with "snorters" like that. brks and klic are remaining a constant annoyance
There is a pretty good chance I'm the only one short here.
no such luck. i still have my pmcs, accumulating since 14+.
Oddly, though, insiders have completely missed the latest rally.
not at all. they've sold it hard. gates and ballmer are good examples there.
Insiders are cashing out and buying new cars/boats/houses etc.
i thought they were all investing in china.
> the permanent bears have been whining for over a year now, we
> haven't had new lows in the indexes - they are just as greedy
> as the bulls calling for nas 10,000 and dow 36,000 at the top,
>
> the economy isn't great, but it isn't a bust either, the bears
> need a real bust now, the market over the last couple of years
> has been a correction of a sector bubble.
well, as one who's been accused of being a perma bear - after having been introduced back to the market back in the late 90's and being a a stoopid bull - i'll just add this. if you're a trader, then what you're saying is fine. if i'm thinking like an investor, i want to buy value. i don't need to buy optimism or hope, since i have my own factory that manufactures that in large quantities, very cheaply.
to the way i think, what you're saying is that the way we value companies has changed fundamentally since the bear markes of previous years. "this time is different" kinda thing. and maybe it is.
but there's nothing nothing nothing that shows me that we're in store for a serious multi-year strong upturn in the economy. just the opposite. everyone is focused on how strong a feeble recovery might be. and yes, i might make a bet on that little bit of sleight of hand there. but there's nothing yet to show that it could be sustained or accelerate.
so i'll keep my bear suit right now. at this rate, probably until the boomers start retiring.
"During the week, we heard of new virus and security frights from MSFT. [...] I'm just trying to connect the dots. I look forward to an clear and concise explanation. [...] I can't imagine what would transpire should the electic grid be inflicted with a virus."
i can't imagine that anyone would even consider running something like the electrical grid on windows. that just doesn't even make sense. true, some of the user interface machines might use windows. but the actual running of the system would have to be off of some highly redundant hardware running a real-time operating system.
but then, why would these systems be on the internet anyway? they'd require a guaranteed response time that the internet just can't give you. and that's certainly not secure.
anyway, unless someone made some very stoopid decisions, i can't imagine how it could have been a virus.
> Lexus and Beemers and Benzies
bimmers, please. beemers are the motorcycles.
well, if your CA is like my CA (currently los angeles), then i'll tell ya where they get the money. they lease.
but! you can get some great deals on late model used! e.g. bmw z3's were overbought and are a steal. trade-in on mb is nowhere near what they'd lead you to believe ...
My bet is that the bombing of the long bond caused one or more of the major derivative players to get caught in the fallout.
hmm. if its a major derivatives player, $20B isn't gonna help so much. unless that's just to cover stuff like shredding documents and suchlike.
P/C ratio today is skewed by the extremely low vol
why would low volume skew the ratio of puts to calls?
quran. indeed, its a documented "urban legend".
http://www.vietnamvets.com/wwwboard/messages/13963.html
The undersized trader was able to ingest 9 burgers before being forced to make a trip to the closest garbage can. The first pay out was at 12 burgers, so the only upside was that the trader managed a free lunch. Lucky for him.
so traders think about food the same way they think about "investments", eh? if its in your stomach for more than 2 minutes, its a free lunch.
Why do technical analysis when we are privy to such estimable information and analysis of the market?
well kudlow, is truly the proverbial broken clock. more so than abby jo conehead, although perhaps because he gets to pontificate almost daily, while abby jo merely does it at significant market tops (cf justa's great chart of ajc "buy equities" calls).
How to put music in your messages
oh goodness. please don't.
Mich sent # postponed till Tuesday
now what more evidence do we need that its their intention to manipulate the markets with these numbers?
geez. doesn't volume seem pretty ... meager ... ?
the shenanigans they have pulled in Florida, Iraq, and now CA
and let's not forget the continuing redistricting debacle in texas ...
one more up to get folks really thinking that we've corrected and now are about to take off again??
isn't it a problem, though, that we've done this for at least the last 3 augusts?
but Buffet surely raises the bar, and he's a democrat!
well that certainly makes me less worried about arnold winning this gubinatorial election and becoming our next goober. but then, hearing that he's now signed on george schultz (did i hear that right? or was it charles schultz?) to co-chair the economic committee with buffett, i really have to ask, what is this guy doing? its great for him to have some talented people with great experience help him out. but too many of them isn't good, especially when they're working on the same issues; it'll be like government by committee.
it appears they'll be open. volume might be light, but maybe they'll just turn the computers on "HIGH" for tomorrow.
re airbus
well, here's something with some old archival info, but just selected randomly from google.
http://archives.tcm.ie/breakingnews/2001/11/12/story29821.asp
its a long time ago, and i don't quite remember where i was reading all of that (debka.com?), but i do clearly remember talk of possible anti-aircraft weapons used. of course, that could all be paranoid conspiracy theory; but then, the whole thing disappeared very quickly without anyone mandating fixes or checks for the flaw they found.
What would really make it interesting is if ...
well, nothing would surprise me. i'm still skeptical about that airbus at jfk on 10/12/01.
> it is not the job of the Federal Government to pay for such
> things, and the cost should be borne by the power companies,
> their shareholders, and their customers.
but the problem is: the grid isn't a single company but multiple companies, and problems like today happen "across the interface".
also, you might add, that without customer choice, there's gonna be no incentive for these guys to do any better. isn't 99.999% uptime adequate?
my original post was merely to quiry if anyone thought the response was a touch too early to be believable?
well the lightning comment, and the subsequent confirmation that it wasn't lightning by the folks at niagra (plus the drudge info, that there were no storms or lightning in the area) pretty much show that the whole thing was just plucked from the air. have they shown pics of the niagra plant yet?
well, drudge has already debunked the lightning strike with two web links:
Act Of God? Canada Blames Outage on Lightning Strike...
But Weather Record For Region Shows No Storms...
Lightning Map...
curious.
does anyone understand what's driving the european bourses? the news there just seems bad overall - recession, heat wave, crops, deaths, etc - yet they keep marching upwards ....
i'm baffled.
Once the sun goes down- lock those doors and pray. NYC is a jungle.
hmm. terrible heat. no electricity. looting. sounds like iraq.
Don't rule out a "lights are back on" rally.
well, this could easily mean that the market will be closed for days, no?
Now quite obvious (at least to me) that bonds will keep falling as long as stocks keep risng.
interesting observation. this seems to be holding true today: moves on the indices seem to lead similar moves on the tnx.
well, swks just filed a shelf offering for $250MM, which promptly moved the stock from the high 8's to the high 9's. i'm playing it as if they're applying lipstick and mascara for a public offering.
that sounds like the green light to dump the mother lode. in my opinion.
hmm. i would have read that as a "don't worry, we're still in control" remark. (although i think the bond market itself, so far, has been saying "no, you're not".)