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If you girls and guys remember the day before Swift came out with the news that Q2 is going to be cash flow positive. On that day we had the news that TMTA auditors are going to change after hours.
There was exactly one trade on that news AH, a 2000 share trade at $0.58 all time low if I remember right.
I still keep thinking about that person who sold then. He/she must be eating his/her hat now, but that happens to weak hands all the time, being left out of the big moves.
I never sold out. I bought my first shares in 2001 around $1.6 and have been long ever since with various positions. I had good times and bad, since I like to average up when I see progress. I added during the last weeks.
My cash statement was referring to the cash Transmeta creates as a company doing business and not the stock on the market.
That's probably why your enthusiasm is ruling your opinions.
LOL, I am just counting the cash...
Hmm, dependent would simply mean coining the deal into a contract, and after the tech transfer the only dependence would be a small fixed payment of $2.5 mill a quarter. It isn't really a dependence where TMTA has to deliver let's say a CPU on a ongoing basis.
As far as I understand it, LR2 really shines in combination with other powersaving techniques. Hence it could very well advance certain specs of certain chips. Mobile CPUs for application that idle most of the time, just to name a one.
You have technical reason. However in the end it all comes down to financials. So if I would be an Intel investor I surely would want them to optimize that.
So far for my speculation about who the next LR2 customer might be. An analyst instead suggested Toshiba would be next. Another nice option would be TSMC. TMTA already has partnered with them in the past. Also they have been in the news recently for building a huge new 65 and 45 nm fab:
TSMC plans $7.5 billion superfab, says report
Peter Clarke
EE Times
(08/11/2005 6:49 AM EDT)
LONDON -- Leading foundry Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. has applied to build a next-generation 300-mm wafer fab in Taichung, according to a Taipei Times report, which referenced a science park official and a TSMC spokesman as sources.
The final manufacturing capacity of the plant is planned to be more than 100,000 wafers per month, the report said. The fab's total cost could be an unprecedented $7.5 billion, the report said, which isroughly triple the cost of the current generation of fabs. "TSMC submitted its operation proposal for our review and approval on Friday," the report quoted Yang Wen-ke, deputy director-general of the Provisional Office of Central Taiwan Science Park, as saying Wednesday (Aug. 10).
TSMC is expected to spend a total of NT$240 billion (about $7.5 billion) to build the fab to manufacture chips using the most-advanced 65-nanometer and 45-nanometer manufacturing processes on 300-mm diameter wafers, the report said quoting Yang who cited TSMC's proposals.
TSMC expects to break ground for the shell of the building in January 2007 and start production of chips 18 months later in August 2008, with shipments at a rate of 11,000 wafers per month, the report said referencing the proposal.
The ultimate capacity of the planned superfab is expected to be 105,000 wafers per month after a three-phase expansion program is completed within five to ten years, the report said referencing the proposal.
TSMC spokesman Tzeng Jinn-haw confirmed that TSMC has applied to build a fab in the Central Taiwan Science Park, the report said. But the report said he added that the Taichung expansion would not begin until after TSMC's Fab-12 in Hsinchu and Fab-14 in Tainan have become fully loaded.
http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/business/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=168600662
wbmw,
could you see the possibility of Intel licensing LR2 from a financial standpoint? Would it make sense for Intel to pay an upfront fee and $10 mill per fab per year to use TMTA tech in combination with their own? This fee looks quite low for a company like Intel. They could probably save it on their own R&D.
We all know the past between these two companies wasn't rosy. But since TMTA changed the biz model, I do see chances that both could profit from certain synergies, no?
About the MSFT project.
Honestly I have not the slightest idea. But I always assumed it's "just" something in software. So I see it as a service contract that ends this year. But who knows for sure? Maybe TMTA will continue to receive rev streams from this project after it is finished. Maybe it will be a high volume Efficion product?
Lately I like the surprises that come from TMTA.
All signs point towards at least two more Qs with numbers as good as, and likely better than, 2Q. Annualized, TMTA is realizing over $.16 per share! I recognize that there are some ifs and buts about future revs (M Kent called this situation "lumpy"), but there is little wishful thinking involved. There is uncertainty whether the company can sustain such levels until LR2 license revs can kick in.
I also don't share the worries of certain analysts about revenue drop in 1H06. When the next 2 Qs go well and Culturecom goes through in Q4 we could see some revenue deferred into Q106 and if they sign up with one of the LR2 interested parties this year, we could see a big upfront fee coming in Q206. It was stated that tech transfer time is now under 6 month. After that LR2 royalties start.
I also liked to learn that once the MSFT project is complete those engineer working on it will move into new LR2 projects. So our base is covered and since TMTA has a few irons in the fire, chances are we see some unexpected upticks in rev somewhere as you stated as "opportunities".
On the share price I agree, the street valuation is just too low atm, but I have no doubt we see your target. It just takes some time. Actually I see it with one crying and one laughing eye. The crying, since when I started buying share a few years back I could have just invested in some risk free bonds and would have more money now. The laughing, that since the price is so low at the moment, that even if there would be some negative news, that stock should still go up imho (and I also had a chance to stock up on stock during the last weeks).
So, for the longer term we surely move toward fundamental equilibrium, for the shorter term the price is determined mainly with technicals. For that I like to look at the weekly 2 year chart. You will notice many indicators there just turning positive now. One can also see the upper range around $4 ($3.5-4.5), which i think is the near term target. I can't wait to see how it behaves around there, because once broken out above that, who knows where the sky is... I like to hold on to my investments as long as I think the next year will be better than this. I also have a good feeling about Swift and Kent. Heck, this company might even become a dividend paying large cap in a few years.
You might be right about the momo. It should be a huge wave to ride. I, however, will stay a bit longer. I currently have almost 100% of my money in this stock, and I just can't find any other currency, commodity, stock or bond that offers equal growth. That said, I like it the Buffett way:
"Diversification may preserve wealth, but concentration builds wealth."
Well, yes. Also one has to see that the float is still big, which means it might take a while until most of it is in "strong" mainly institutional hands.
However I have not the slightest doubt that this will happen in the coming days and weeks. THEN the real fun will start.
What I like about the guidance is that the $15 mill Culturecom deal is not included. If it happens in Q3 or Q4, it will add 8 cents profit per share on top.
Indeed, I am curious about the next days. Imho TMTA deserves a higher pps right now. If we don't see some major institutional buying coming up I would be surprised...
Transmeta rehiring old employees that got fired before. Nice to hear that.
The Company reported gross margin of 99.8% for the license business, 45.6% for the service business, and 44.1% for the product business.On a consolidated basis, the Company's gross margin was 67.1% for the second quarter of 2005, compared to 28.3% for the first quarter of 2005, and a negative 54.4% for the second quarter of 2004.
NICE margins.
Congrats to all TMTA people!
I really have to congratulate myself here on holding out so long with this Company.
4 cent profit in Q2. I am just blown away!!!
Transmeta Reports Record Quarterly Revenue and Positive Earnings; Achieves Positive Cash Flow from Operations of $4.8 Million; Raises Cash Guidance to $47 Million at 2005 Fiscal Year End
Business Wire - August 09, 2005 16:30
SANTA CLARA, Calif., Aug 09, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Transmeta Corporation (Nasdaq:TMTA), the leader in efficient computing technologies, today announced record financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2005.
Highlights for the Second Quarter 2005
-- Net revenue of $24.7 million
-- Net income improved significantly to $6.8 million, or $0.04 per share
-- Positive cash flow from operations of $4.8 million
-- Cash balance of $46.6 million at June 30, 2005
-- Deferred revenue of $15.5 million
-- Engineering services projects with Sony and Microsoft continue to progress well
-- Semiconductor industry veterans Lester M. Crudele and Robert V. Dickinson joined the Transmeta Board of Directors
Business Update
"Our performance during the second quarter clearly reflects the positive steps we have taken and the continued execution of our transformation plan," commented Arthur L. Swift, president and CEO. "The strategic decisions we took earlier this year regarding the evolution of our business model, and the means of bringing our technology to market, are already delivering measurable positive results. Although we are still in a transitional period, the progress we are making with our partners gives us confidence in our ability to win and successfully execute additional projects for new customers and strategic partners."
Net revenue for the second quarter of 2005 was $24.7 million, compared to $6.9 million in the first quarter of 2005, and $6.0 million in the second quarter of 2004. Revenue in the second quarter comprised $10.0 million of license revenue, $7.6 million of service revenue, and $7.1 million of product revenue. This compares with no license revenue, $0.3 million of service revenue, and $5.7 million of product revenue in the second quarter of 2004. The increased product revenue on a sequential and year-over-year basis reflects in part the effects of end-of-life (EOL) product sales. In addition, the Company reported deferred revenue of $15.5 million as of June 30, 2005, an increase of $1.0 million compared to the first quarter of 2005.
The Company reported gross margin of 99.8% for the license business, 45.6% for the service business, and 44.1% for the product business. On a consolidated basis, the Company's gross margin was 67.1% for the second quarter of 2005, compared to 28.3% for the first quarter of 2005, and a negative 54.4% for the second quarter of 2004.
The Company's net income for the second quarter of 2005 improved significantly to $6.8 million, or $0.04 per share, compared with a net loss of $21.1 million, or a loss of $0.11 per share, in the first quarter of 2005, and a net loss of $26.8 million, or a loss of $0.15 per share, in the second quarter of 2004.
The Company had positive cash flow from operations of $4.8 million in the second quarter of 2005, as compared to negative cash flow from operations of $13.3 million and $20.4 million in the first quarter of 2005 and the second quarter of 2004, respectively. The Company's cash, cash equivalents and short term investments at June 30, 2005 totaled $46.6 million.
Guidance
"We continue to be encouraged by the positive financial and operational progress of our business," commented Mark R. Kent, chief financial officer. "Having significantly surpassed our first objective of reducing our cash burn, we will now look to build upon the positive achievements of Q2 and expect to be at break even or better cash flow from operations for the second half of 2005. As a result, we are raising our cash projections and now expect that our cash position will be at least $47 million at December 31, 2005, up from our previous guidance of $35 million."
Transmeta Corporation Schedules Second Quarter 2005 Earnings Release & Conference Call
Business Wire - August 05, 2005 17:00
SANTA CLARA, Calif., Aug 05, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Transmeta Corporation (NASDAQ:TMTA), the leader in efficient computing technologies, will announce results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2005 on August 9, 2005 after the NASDAQ market closes.
Following the release, Transmeta management will host a conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time / 2:00 p.m. Pacific time to discuss the operating performance for the quarter. To listen to the conference call, please dial (913) 981-5546. The conference call will also be available live over the Internet at the investor relations section of Transmeta's website at www.transmeta.com. A recording of the conference call will be available for one week, starting one hour after the completion of the call, until 11:59 p.m. Eastern time on August 16, 2005. The phone number to access the recording is (888) 203-1112, and the passcode is 1080040. For callers outside the U.S., please dial (719) 457-0820, with the same passcode.
That's good. I was really worried this one is dead.
Everybody making money now or why is this board dead?
Nice overview, hope you feel better about your position in this company after recent performance. Much more to come. And thanks for extracting the useful information from yahoo into this board. The highly regarded and vacant post of board archivist is hereby filled.
By the way, I kind of lost overview about all the products Transmeta is receiving money for. Why not do an open list, which everybody could copy + edit + past, something like Wikipedia. Only recent and future products to be listed, not past ones, that create no more revenues. Mark future products that don't create revenue yet with "(fut)" and future products that are speculative as "(spec)". As a starter:
---------------------------
## Crusoe ##
- Royalties from Culturecom notebooks (fut)
- OQO
## Efficion 130 nm ##
- Sharp Mebius
- Sharp ACTIUS MP30
- HP Thin clients
## Efficion 90 nm ##
## specific LR2 products ##
- Cell (spec)
## Royalties from Patents ##
- LR2 license for Sony (fut)
- LR2 license for NEC (fut)
- LR2 license for Fujitsu (fut)
## Service contracts ##
- Software development environment for Sony Playstation 3
- Undisclosed development project for Microsoft (fut)
Could be the reason why E&Y left as well... Nice action for the usually rather quiet month of July for Transmeta.
Effects of Yuan revaluation on this stock. Short term none, since contract prices are in dollars. However, longer term is positive, since contractors might be willing to pay more "weaker" dollars for TMTA services, products and royalties. Hence revenue and earnings should increase.
Expecting Q2 results in 3 weeks. Counting down...
Public Announcement of the People's Bank of China on Reforming the RMB Exchange Rate Regime
July 21, 2005
With a view to establish and improve the socialist market economic system in China, enable the market to fully play its role in resource allocation as well as to put in place and further strengthen the managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand, the People's Bank of China, with authorization of the State Council, is hereby making the following announcements regarding reforming the RMB exchange rate regime:
1. Starting from July 21, 2005, China will reform the exchange rate regime by moving into a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. RMB will no longer be pegged to the US dollar and the RMB exchange rate regime will be improved with greater flexibility.
2. The People's Bank of China will announce the closing price of a foreign currency such as the US dollar traded against the RMB in the inter-bank foreign exchange market after the closing of the market on each working day, and will make it the central parity for the trading against the RMB on the following working day.
3. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB will be adjusted to 8.11 yuan per US dollar at the time of 19:00 hours of July 21, 2005. The foreign exchange designated banks may since adjust quotations of foreign currencies to their customers.
4. The daily trading price of the US dollar against the RMB in the inter-bank foreign exchange market will continue to be allowed to float within a band of ��0.3 percent around the central parity published by the People's Bank of China, while the trading prices of the non-US dollar currencies against the RMB will be allowed to move within a certain band announced by the People's Bank of China.
The People's Bank of China will make adjustment of the RMB exchange rate band when necessary according to market development as well as the economic and financial situation. The RMB exchange rate will be more flexible based on market condition with reference to a basket of currencies. The People's Bank of China is responsible for maintaining the RMB exchange rate basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level, so as to promote the basic equilibrium of the balance of payments and safeguard macroeconomic and financial stability.
Submit Date:2005-7-21 19:01:00
http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/detail.asp?col=6400&id=542
Merci, also check the weekly on TMTA over 2 years period (or longer)...
Imho, it will show better what is going on in the next time...
Ever wanted to name an ant species after your name?
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=5219297710&category=177&ssPageName=WD...
So after positive operating cash flow the next step is profitability.
And when this is reached our little company should not be valued like a chapter 11 candidate anymore, but rather by EPS, margins, future cash flow and expected long term revenue.
Of course nobody knows them yet (maybe we know them when Q2 or Q3 report comes out), however when profitable, todays market capitalization of around $113 Million or Eur95Million seems way too low considering book value, human capital and future prospects, even in captial scarce times.
So people, the train is still in the station.
PS.: It's a shame IHub still can't display the Euro symbol.
tal, re e&y.
One cannot say for sure what the reason for the resignation is. From personal differences over too high fees to whatever. Maybe they were "asked" to resign, maybe not, maybe they just thought tmta is not going to give them enough "work" in the future. Who knows?
But the good sign here is they don't leave immediately but stay until end of Q3 report, and they don't have any other official issues with tmta except those that are in the quaterly fillings some time.
So, it's never a nice thing when an auditor resigns, however it looks more like a none-issue with a bitter taste...
Wow, is this real?:
Transmeta Expects to Report Positive Operating Cash Flow for the 2005 Second Quarter
Business Wire - July 08, 2005 07:00
SANTA CLARA, Calif., Jul 08, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Transmeta Corporation (Nasdaq:TMTA), the leader in efficient computing technologies, today announced that it now anticipates reporting positive operating cash flow for the second quarter ended June 30, 2005. On May 13, 2005, Transmeta had stated that it expected to reduce its negative cash flow to less than $5 million a quarter by the end of the second quarter.
"We have surpassed our first goal of substantially reducing our cash burn, and in fact I am now able to comfortably say that we will report positive operating cash flow for the 2005 second quarter," stated Mark R. Kent, chief financial officer. "We are encouraged by the positive financial and operational progress across our business."
Transmeta also announced that Ernst & Young LLP has indicated that it will resign as the Company's independent registered public accounting firm following the earlier of the completion of services related to the review of the Company's interim financial statements for the quarter ended September 30, 2005 or the filing due date of that quarterly report.
"I would like to thank E&Y for its many contributions and commend the firm for its professionalism," said Kent. The Company and its Audit Committee have initiated the process of selecting a new independent registered public accounting firm. "We expect to announce a new audit firm during the third quarter," concluded Kent.
The Company anticipates reporting its second quarter 2005 financial results in the first half of August 2005.
approved
Alrighty Swift, give us one or two north american LR2 licensees...
Wyndham? by the way, nice hotel company just coming out of a huge restructuring... (very interesting to follow from a financial point of view)
Yes, or a few more agreements like that and including 90nm e or LR2 with royalties and upfront payment would also do the trick.
Buy the way I am about to update my older "new" PC systems that are running 24/7 and using 130-200 Watt (including CRT Monitors) with HP Efficion Thin clients + LCDs. I figured at a price of 18 eurocents per kW/h I save about 150-200 Euro per station per year in energy costs. Selling the old parts will cover most of the investment costs, and it is more quiet and eye friendly. so long...
TRANSMETA ANNOUNCES PROCESSOR TECHNOLOGY LICENSE
AND SALE AGREEMENT FOR THE CHINESE MARKET
SANTA CLARA, CA (May 31, 2005)
Pursuant to these agreements, Transmeta has agreed to sell, through a combination of asset purchase and licensing agreements, its Crusoe product line to Culturecom. As part of this agreement, Culturecom will also license Transmeta's 130-nanometer Efficeon technology to make and sell Efficeon-based products in China. In consideration, Culturecom will make up-front cash payments totaling $15 million to be escrowed pending the close of the transaction. In addition to the up-front payments, Culturecom will also pay royalties to Transmeta on sales by Culturecom of Crusoe and Efficeon products. The transaction is scheduled to close in the fourth quarter of 2005.
Yeah, my Internet live had a looooong christmas break.
How is your trading doing? Most of the stocks I watch have been in a horrible state since the beginning of this year. No Januar effect, no nothing, just wandering around in nirvana...
Hmmh, maybe I just have to watch different stocks...
nice and easy pips for momentum traders so far...
trying to delay the pain ...
DJ China Regulator Issues Notice On Foreign Bk FX Borrowing
02/21/2005
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--China's foreign exchange regulator has outlined the process for foreign banks to apply for quotas for their short-term borrowing in foreign currency this year.
The quota system is aimed at improving the regulator's oversight of foreign exchange borrowing of foreign banks in China, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said in a notice posted on its Web Site late Monday.
"These quotas for short-term foreign debt of foreign banks should meet the needs of foreign banks for their normal business development and also effectively control the total size of short-term foreign debt of foreign banks," the notice said.
In June 2004, regulators said they would cap the amount of U.S. dollar borrowing overseas by branches of foreign banks operating in China. The regulator also signaled that proceeds of U.S. dollar loans in China can only be used for legitimate goods trade.
Borrowing in U.S. dollars has been one way for speculators to bet that China's authorities will allow the yuan to rise in value against the U.S. currency.
China's yuan is only fully convertible on the trade account but even then daily trading is kept in a very narrow band relative to the dollar. On the capital account, the country maintains strict controls on outflows of yuan to prevent an exodus from its financial system to more stable markets offshore.
According to Monday's statement, foreign banks should submit their quota applications to SAFE within ten working days of receiving notices from the regulator. If the banks don't respond in this period, SAFE will assign the banks the same quota they had in 2004.
In determining the quotas, SAFE said its branches should consider the 2005 business development plans of foreign banks, and the balance of foreign exchange loans of foreign banks in the previous two years, especially the second half of 2004.
...market holiday...wait for Tuesday...
so swissy finally hit 1850, just a few market hours later than I thought. where will it go now?
That is actually my biggest problem: going to bed!
I often watch spot trade the entire day setting itself up nicely for something. And I see confirmation everywhere about a nice entry just at a certain level that would break when reached and move 20-50+ pips. So I wait one hour, and another hour, and another hour. I get tired, I go to bed only to wake up the next day to see, if I had waited another 10 minutes I could have had 50+ pips trades. I happenend 3 times in the last 2 weeks. grrr. I usually don't leave trades open when I go to bed unless I am 20+ pips in profits and momentum is on my side.
I am now seriously thinking about getting a partner or two, to share an account and trading times. My plan would be 9 hours per person and day, 8 hours alone and 1 hour for knowledge exchange.
However I don't know anybody around me who is good in Forex. And if I know, there is also the question about trust etc...
Does anybody have any experience in this?
eur/gbp broke the downward trendline on the daily a few days ago. But on the hourly chart it is moving down with some support around the .6880 area. So I will watch to see which way it decides to go next week.
I see, there is also a strong support line on eur/gbp at 6869, moving up 2 pips every day on daily. If this is broken to the downside, eur/gbp is in neutral territory imho. And only below 6840 it's bearish imho. However they should provide decent support next week. Will watch for clues as well. Above 6928 is bullish.
About eur/usd, if it moves above 3090-95 I might play it long with tight stops. Imho there is a high risk that this move could be a fast spike that sells of quickly again, unless it gets above 3130...
Actually, Su, if you look at the 30 min charts of usd/jpy and use a little phantasy you see that this week built an inverted head and shoulder, which in itself is the handle of a cup in the 8 hr chart. It's neckline is 0587, which was tested today and which should run around 0590-0595 on Monday. This neckline in usd/jpy was exactly hit today when usd/cad led the way.
So if I am right on this (and I could be totally wrong) one of the next times usd/cad rallies, this usd/jpy neckline should give in. And if there is follow through, we should see a nice usd rally across the board.
I watch out for that next week or the week after. Monday and Tuesday could be nice opportunities for usd dip buying. In usd/jpy that would be 0536-0550.
What'ya think?
If anybody finds other chart formations somewhere, bring them on!
Disclaimer: Just my opinion. Trade on your own.
You think, eur/gbp AND gbp/usd will rally?
In that case it would be better to just buy eur/usd, no???
Also, I have a question, what happenend to your Long NZD/USD 7146? Did you hold on? I am mean you were essentially right, although it first went down a bit... I was actually going to ask you about this earlier, since at the time you posted this, all my indicators where completely neutral on this pair. Reason I didn't jump on since I didn't understand what was going on. So what made you buy it???
Any strategy, market insight where we are going next week?