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I assume you are talking about the crossover. Yes it would be a good thing, and the 200 day SMA has been declining pretty much for a solid year, and for 2 years if you discount the brief period where it flat lined and waverred up just a bit.
I believe more traders still use the sma (simple moving average) than the ema (exponential moving average) but here is both sets from yesterdays close
50 day ema 2.99
200 day ema 3.04
50 day sma 2.89
200 day sma 2.91
There is just negative toneaga all over that message.
If Asisi is "A" "CC" the line ends with the word disappointing.
Earnings disappointment? Revenue disappointment?
If it is "TFA" a mis-spelled, but similiarly sounding to "TSA" it sounds as if that business is in question. "Won't be coming to the party"
If the word "chances" is quotated as a replacement for "Francis" which it rhmes with, then the "chances of "A" "CC" won't be coming.
I have difficulty seeing anything but a short term warning for disappointment in that message.
lakingspan. Those are some of my avorite indicators. What i said is I believe they reflect accumulation, or distribution, rather than dilution. Regardless of if we agree on the information they provide, those are excellent gages of sentiment in the stock.
I believe I may have said i prefer the standard money flow to the chaikin money flow. Also each stock, and some stocks in different cycles in their lives offer better signals on some indicators then others. At this point in TKO, these indicators seem to be tracking fairly reliably when coupled with trend and candlestick information.
While I am babbling and musing here is another fascinating dynamic. Let's say a well respected trader finds a series of events where a 20% runup is followed by a 10% pullback. he publishes a book, or newsletter with this info, and lots of examples. Soon some traders start to execute trades based on this strategy to test it. The more short term traders who believe this and trade based on this knowledge, the more often it happens, as groups of traders begin to sell stocks that have run up 20%, and buy back in when they come down 10%. The more people who believe a technical indication is valid, the more people execute trades based on that price point being reached, in effect further validating the theory.
This makes it very tempting for market makers I would think to manipulate a price a few cents here or there, knowing that short term traders will have entry or exit orders placed at certain nearby price points based on commonly used technical analysis.
The indicators only show the change in sentiment, not what drives it. It could be driven by suspected news, real news, traders reacting to overbought/ovesold indicators, fund activity, insider transactions, etc, etc.
Most indicators operate basically by looking at averages over a fized amount of time, and comparing them to current activity, thus although they attempt to predict future activity, there is always some lag in the curve. Generally speaking the faster acting indicators are the most likely to throw off false signals as they are heavily weighted toward current activity and do not smooth out what could be just daily blips, like when investor Q decides he wants to throw $100,00 into a speculative stock for no special reason that has anything to do with current market dynamics. A faster indicator would quickly show a surge in buying interest. This is why it is best to watch a small set of indicators and watch for confirming signals from them in addition to actual data from the stock chart.
The real key, or art perhaps is the word, is to wait long enough not to be fooled by false signals, but not so long as to miss the oppotunity. Couple all this with trade triggers, and protective stop losses and you begin to understand the mind of the day trader.
I read a fascinating article once that suggested short term traders need do no research at all. Throw darts at a stock chart. If the chart is sideways ignore it. If it is in a trend, buy it or short it as appropriate. Place a stop loss at say 2%, take profits on any move 8-10% in your favor. never tried it, just hought it was an interesting point on trade discipline.
Hi Sirius. Badtrader and I talked about the moving averages last week I believe. The two most commonly watched intermediate to long term moving averages are the 50 and the 200. These lines represent the average of all closing prices over the previous 50 and 200 days respectively. The 200 day average in this stock has been mostly declining since about Aug of 2005.
When one of the lines crosses the other it is a potential alert of possible change in trend. The 50 day average is very close to crossing the 200 right now. It would be considrred even more positive if the 200 day average was rsing, but it is still mildly declining. This is a technically positive event, but needs other indicators to be positive to signal a buy.
The bollinger bands he refers to are basically a measure of volatility, or quick swings in price. The chart Sonny has on the board has the bollinger bands on the main price chart. They are the red bands above and below the stock price. The theory of Bollinger bands is price always returns to a median range. Think of them as rubber bands. The further they get stretched by unusual price spikes, the more they want to return to their normal size (trading range) The price approaching a band can be seen as a possibility it is due to retreat away from it. Again, this indicator needs confirmation from other indicators. The Williams %R is basically a numerical interpretation of what bollinger bands are telling you.
There is mild evidence of a bottom here, but nothing convincing for me. I like to watch the accumulation/distribution line, money flow, and on balance volume. Accum/dist and money flow both show just the teaniest move up, but not enough to signal a strong buy yet. OBV remains bearish. The chart pattern although showing support in the 3.00-3.10 area also remains on the bearish side.
The indicators overall seem to say there is downward pressure, but it is lightening up some. basically the positives noted in his post say to me, stand by to stand by. There could be a change of sentiment coming.
In regargs to GLL's post today. Does anyone have an opinion? It sounds almost ominous, but perhaps I misread it.
No, Zen is still on board. To be honest i wish I would have sold at 3.40-3.45 where my instincts were starting to tell me to. I would have come back in around 3.10
Anyway, still here, so hope it wasn't a big bet you were placing
Sirius, your the best!
I followed a lot of that. So you think the 4 million from the PR is in addition to the 4 million that appeared on Edgar?
Do we know the 4 million from the PR was additional issued shares into the pool, or could it have come from an already existing stockpile?
If you are still awake, and if you are I bet that wine bottle is half empty
Anyway, no need to answer tonight, like myself you are burning your posts for tomorrow, so enoy the wine, and post any thoughts tomorrow when everyone wakes up and reads tonights messages, and gets their heads a spinning.
Nite.
Hope everyone back east stays warm and safe in the weather.
Chaos. yes you have the general gist. It appears if they issued an additional 4 million shares as the edgar filing seems to state, that dilution plays a role in this current weakness. For me it particularly might explain the large institutions and funds lightening up. Couple that with the fact there is no guidance to give anyone an idea of how to properly value the company. Everyone can see the recent deals should raise revenue, but how much, and what is TKO's cost and profit anticipation.
As to learning a bit about charts. I think stockcharts.com under the top menu charting school is a great place to start.
Here is another link with good explanations http://www.iqchart.com/101/tech_william.asp
You can then google search as well for things like, charting stocks, technical analysis etc. There are many many different indicators, and you need to find the ones that make sense to you. Some sort of money flow indicator is appropriate, a sentiment gage such as RSI or MACD, moving averages, and accumulation/distribution make up some of my favorites. Maybe also look at candlestick charting, candlesticks are more visual and have several readily recognizeable patterns.
Do not believe charts are only used by short term players or day traders. The big boy long term investors use them also. The simply run them over longer time frames with daily and sometimes weekly settings. This allows them to see if stocks look like they are enterring long term corrections or run-ups.
Take it slow, the best sites will post some example charts to show you how the indicator might have been used to evaluate movement in the stock. If you couple technical indicators with DD, news, and chart action you can often learn to recognize overall patterns. It's not magic, it's not perfect, it's not the holy grail, but it is another tool in the investors arsenal, and it has it's place and value.
Enjoy the tequilla, I hope it's a 100% Agave variety
Wow, legal jargon..bleck.
it looks like in section 4 on page 6 it states there was or would be an additional 4 million shares issued if i read my lawyer speak correctly. That is dilution for sure, although I still don't think you can see it on the CMF chart.
That would maybe explain some of the big tutes lightening up. As to the rights to purchase the 1.7 million, I could not find a price. This seems to be timed around that PR they released. 4 million shares awarded, but the PR stated rights to purchase 2.6 million shares with a price of 4.17.
My head hurts, I am going for a glass of wine.
Soony I see exactly what you do on the CMF chart. But the CMF uses accumulation/distribution and volume as the method of monitoring. You can see the accumulation/distribution line below the CMF dropping the whole time as well.
Did you read my post on the Chaikin money Flow chart earlier?
At any rate i see distribution not dilution.
I am not saying there may not have been some dilution going on, only that that is not what that chart is designed to track.
I enthusiastically await the results of your ministrations.
lakingspan, I posted earlier exactly what the CMF chart is based on. It is based on the accumulation/distribution line and volume. You can look it up at stockcharts.com. under the stock chart school section. That is their chart you post on the site. they are a valuable resource for information on what the charts are attempting to tell us.
I hope you understand I am not trying to attack you in anyway. I personally think you have put together some great information on the TKO page. It looks better, and has more useful information than any other board I have used on this site. I would love to be able to see dilution on a chart. I am a big fan of charts and the info on them if you hadn't noticed.
OK, so the diluted the heck out of the shares during 2006, but it looks like the share count has basically been the same since 11-1-06 at 56.85 million, and only up 200,000 betwenn 2006 Q3 end and now. So based on those figures it appears dilution definitely hurt this stock greatly during 2006, but does not appear to be a recent factor.
Thank you so much for the info Sirius. If we all keep this up, we may just figure some things out together.
Sonny. I did not have board info hid, and often refer to the chart and some of the links. I had just never seen that info beofre. Even when you said it just now I had to scroll through the board 3 times to find it. The surest way to hide something from me is put it in front of my eyes LOL.
Thank you.
It has been my understanding that the difference between total shares outstanding, and total shares float, is that shares owned by officers, directors, and affiliates are not considerred part of the public float, but are considrted part of outstanding shares. If you look at insider ownership of approximately 12.4% and subtract that from total shares outstanding, you get pretty close to that float figure.
Hold on a second there. I agree that if there is dilution it would affect share price. I just have not seen any evidence of dilution. At the moment i chalk the price decline up to speculators taking profit on weak guidance without any numbers.
What we need is a historical document showing what the total outstanding shares was a month or more ago.
If you look at shortsqueeze.com I believe the only info that updates daily is the share price and + or minus value on the stock. if so it shows the same share count Jan as we have now.
Now Sirius, I know you said you keep a daily printout from your Nasdaq site showing institutional transactions. Do you save the entire printout? If you do, it shows the sharecount right in the upper left hand corner rounded to the nearest round million.
Any chance you have a bunch of them tucked away in a file somewhere. We could put this dilution question to rest finally.
Agree on your definitions of dilution, and also as to investors who just received stock not mattering as long as it was issued from previously existing stores of the stock.
If it was not issued from existing stores then there would be dilution as more stocks are available. As to whether or not they sell, or have a lock up, it seems to me would be irrelevant as the shares would already cause the increase in the pool size. The stock market looks forward, so even if they couldn't sell for say, 6 months, the dilution would be immediately factored into the share price by those in the know as to the future meaning.
In the hopes of understanding Lakingspans information I have performed several searches for indicators that can resolve dilution, and have not been sucessful in finding one.
lakingspan. here is a description of the meaning of information from the CMF indicator from the stockcharts.com site. I still do not understand how dilution can be resolved from this information.
Developed by Marc Chaikin, the Chaikin Money Flow oscillator is calculated from the daily readings of the Accumulation/Distribution Line. The basic premise behind the Accumulation Distribution Line is that the degree of buying or selling pressure can be determined by the location of the Close relative to the High and Low for the corresponding period (Closing Location Value). There is buying pressure when a stock closes in the upper half of a period's range and there is selling pressure when a stock closes in the lower half of the period's trading range. The Closing Location Value multiplied by volume forms the Accumulation/Distribution Value for each period. (See our Chart School article for a detailed analysis of the Accumulation/Distribution Line.)
Thanks lakinsapan. I had seen it. Executed on Jan 28 if i remember correctly. If he had made the move the during the first week of Feb I would have been more concerned.
Sirius. Thank you for the information. I was just teasing a little trying to break some of the board tension. Ultimately I appreciate the wealth of information that has come from GLL and Walrus. I bear in mind that I do not know either of them though, and make any decisions accordingly.
Money flow out has stabilized and is flatlining, OBV over the last two days shows some mild accumulation, and the RSI came down to nuetral 50 and is moving up slightly. On the chart a second failed attempt to break the top of the body of the last down candle could signal a continuation of the downtrend. A third day failing to break it would be a further signal. The price needs to close above 3.25 to put any kind of meaningful pause in the mind of the short term down direction.
The lovume on the climb up today was a little more reasonable. The stock is just looking for short term direction here. Goes up to test 3.25 resistance, down to test 3.10 support. It is a fairly recent range that has developed so be careful. If it breaks out it may move a little. No reason at the moment to suspect anything but sideways, although an announcement of an upcoming CC could shake things up a bit.
With all the recent news, particularly the new GE partnership, and the new acquisitions the are pursueing, there are going to be some probing questions. We can't gaurantee informative answers though, and therin lies the concern.
never mind, he popped back up, but he was gone for a little while
Level II interesting. The new specialist NASDAQ is the most active, but good ole AMEX has dropped off the board.
Florida? So Walrus wo't be posting for several weeks, and neither will GLL, and many are uncertain as to who they are, but Isaiah thinks they might be in Florida.
Florida.....Mid Feb thru Mid to late Mar.....Spring break.
I've got it!
They're the people who produce those college girls gone wild videos
yes Sirius, i have looked it up. There were some installations effectively as a kind of pilot program. There should be revenue there as well, but the larger roll out to the rest of the chain is what I am looking at coming into 08. Wyndham definitely decided to roll out to the rest of the chain, we just haven't seen a time frame.
Hotels, Navy, Homeland Security, GE. A lot of potential installs there. I can't help but wonder as to the potential chaotic nature of rolling products out in so many directions simultaneously. That's got to be a lot of road time for the techies.
Just an opinion on what I've been able to piece together from posts and such. According to Walrus and GLL. The Q4 numbers are an improvement over Q3, but not going to overly impress anyone.
GLL has suggested that homeland security is going well. That could translate maybe into some good Q1 numbers. The Wyndham deal to roll out to all their properties didn't really give a time line, and I don't have a feel for any timing on that revenue.
There hasn't been much noise on the EDS front either.
So with Q4 revenue not being a big positive, what is going to be needed is guidance for Q1 and Q2 when the previous Q4 revenues are disclosed. That is what investors will be listening for. Any ommissions there, or avoidance of questions on those subjects I would think will be viewed negatively.
Out at 3.23, back in at 3.11. Very nice top and bottom picking there. I'm not moving anything at the moment as I overloaded at 3.65 on the day of the GE announcement. I couldn't bring myself to bank the loss at 3.40 like I should have, so here I sit.
At least in poker you can bluff a win once in a while
I didn't get to watch any of the afternoon trading, but the chart tells the story. The stock was rejected from the attempt to break the 3.25 level and signal it's readiness to advance again. That was an odd runup this morning anyway as it was almost no volume at all. Just a couple unfortunate buyers who were lured in at a higher price than they needed to pay. It was also fairly well supported at the 3.10ish level signaling the bearish faction has lost some of it's momentum from last week.
After hours action aside, the chart still appears weak, but the candle today signals mostly indecision, a tug of war, with just a slight edge to the bears. The fact that they could not get it below yesterdays close signals a possible bottom here. It will likely test that level again tomorrow as the bears attemp to regain their momentum.
Right before 1PM east coast time the 5 minute OBV shows a bunch of stock was dumped, but buyers right before the close picked most of that volume back up to end the day mostly nuetral. End of day buying was strong and suggests bargain hunters came late to pick up a bunch of shares. They likely waited to the end of the day to make sure the stock was going to remain above yesterdays lows.
That is odd. The trades are clearly there on level II. The strange thing is neither yahoo finance, nor cbs marketwatch show any after hours activity occured on TKO?
best case scenario I would like to see a close over 3.25...hey doesn't hurt to ask. That would completely encompass the body of Fridays candle and make for a pretty looking short term reversal indication on the candle chart.
I did notice NASDAQ on level II, and actively moving shares also. Maybe it's time for them to cover the naked shorts, but that 10 cent move occured on very light volume. It was only 12-15 thousand shares that moved it up 10 cents, then the 15,000 share chunk when it hit 3.23, which brought it down a couple ticks. If the candle holds above the close price on Friday there should be no further short players coming in here. The candle for today looks like the stock found a temporary bottom. Good upside momentum will hopefully make it a long term reversal point. Profit taking has stopped here it looks like.
I have no idea why it bounced like that, and on minimum volume. It almost looks like there was some news except for the lack of volume. It looks like it will walk back down some.
technically the sell off has been overdone and I would expect some money to come back in today. How much and how aggressive will decide if the stock goes sideways or back up. Ultimately is must overcome the entire 3 day downtrend to get back to a good place, but this morning looks like a start.
I am back on day shift this week, and will be away most of the day. It would be nice to see TKO close up 10 or more cents today.
Anyone know why the stock just popped 10 cents. It jumped in a matter of minutes way up on the bid/ask
Ouch. Well written and well read. Things that are not emminently clear, cause emminent contemplation. Contemplation is a good thing. Clears us of the congestion of everyday thinking.
Best wishes to you and your 15 shares.
See here in lies one of the few areas of subterfuge on this board. Hidden messages, and hidden identities. A threat to expose a position, followed by a request for private conference. Intrigue and politics. It invites more questions then it answers.